CN113496391A - Project completion expense prediction method and device, terminal and storage medium - Google Patents

Project completion expense prediction method and device, terminal and storage medium Download PDF

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CN113496391A
CN113496391A CN202110811644.9A CN202110811644A CN113496391A CN 113496391 A CN113496391 A CN 113496391A CN 202110811644 A CN202110811644 A CN 202110811644A CN 113496391 A CN113496391 A CN 113496391A
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CN113496391B (en
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纪璠
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Mountop Group Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a project completion expense prediction method and device, a terminal and a storage medium, wherein the method comprises the following steps: respectively determining a completed work package, an un-started work package and an ongoing work package according to the current process of each work package in the project; the cost of completed work packages is calculated according to the actual cost, the cost of work packages which are not started to be carried out is calculated according to the planned cost, and the cost of the work packages which are carried out is budgeted: the costs of completed work packages, un-started work packages, and ongoing work packages are aggregated. The invention utilizes the work package process weighting prediction function to calculate the ongoing work package completion cost, not only can predict the situation when the earned check point is positioned at the initial stage of the work package and generate more accurate results, but also can predict the situation when the earned check point is close to the planned completion time of the work package and generate more accurate results.

Description

Project completion expense prediction method and device, terminal and storage medium
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of engineering project management, in particular to a project completion expense prediction method and device, a terminal and a storage medium.
Background
In the earned value method analysis, the cost of project completion prediction is a very important link. The earned value method is not only a cost control mode of correcting deviation of cost or progress found at earned value check points, but also embodies an important advanced control method by the concept of predicting project completion cost. The prior control, the middle control and the after control are all important composition stages of cost control.
In the process of developing projects, many enterprises usually pay more attention to the control in the middle and the control after the events, and the control before the events is relatively neglected. However, accurate pre-control by predicting the cost is often as important as in-process control and post-process control, which is not only beneficial to quantitative management of the cost, but also convenient for implementation of cost control in the whole process, thereby more effectively controlling the cost of the project.
Project Completion cost prediction (EAC) is performed according to an earned method, and currently, there are mainly the following three methods:
the first method assumes that the cost situation of the finished part of the project can reflect the cost situation of the unfinished part of the project, and the unfinished part of the project is predicted according to the uniform cost execution indexes of the finished part, namely:
EAC＝ACWP+(BAC-BCWP)/CPI；
the second method assumes that the unfinished part of the project is predicted according to the residual cost of the project, and the method has the following prediction formula:
EAC＝ACWP+BAC-BCWP；
the third method is that the cost situation of the finished part of the project is not enough to estimate the cost of the unfinished part of the project, and the unfinished part of the project is estimated in a comprehensive re-estimation mode, and the prediction formula is as follows:
EAC ═ ACWP + re-estimated remaining operating cost;
wherein BAC is the total cost of the project plan, ACWP is the actual cost of the completed workload, BCWP is the budget cost of the completed workload, and 1/CPI is the uniform cost performance indicator of the performed part.
Both the first and second methods are established under certain assumptions, which are not satisfied in many cases during the actual project progress.
In view of the limitations of the two assumptions, it has been analyzed that cost prediction for project completion is a significant link to cost prediction for an ongoing work package. For an ongoing work package, the predicted completion cost of the work package may be the predicted completion cost when the earned checkpoint is at the beginning of the work package, and the calculated CPI-based completion cost prediction may be more accurate when the earned checkpoint is near the planned completion time of the ongoing work package. For the Work packages which are not developed yet, statistics is more reasonable by using the planned Work budget Cost or the planned engineering investment amount (BCWS). Based on this consideration, it is necessary to develop a method capable of more reasonably predicting completion costs, as well as predicting the completion period of an ongoing work package.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: aiming at the defects of the existing project completion cost prediction method, the invention aims to provide a project completion cost prediction method and device, a terminal and a storage medium, so that the completion cost can be predicted more reasonably.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a method of project completion fee prediction, the method comprising: respectively determining a completed work package, an un-started work package and an ongoing work package according to the current process of each work package in the project; the cost of completed work packages is calculated according to the actual cost, the cost of work packages which are not started to be carried out is calculated according to the planned cost, and the cost of the work packages which are carried out is budgeted: aggregating the costs of completed work packages, the costs of non-started work packages, and the costs of ongoing work packages;
the cost budgeting steps of the ongoing work package are as follows:
defining the following weighted prediction function considering the progress of the work package:
w1(λ)＝e-αλ (1)
w2(λ)＝1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (2)
wa(λ)＝w1(λ)+w2(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (3)
wherein λ ═ ATi/BTiThe ratio of the number of days that the ith work package has started at the checkpoint to the number of days scheduled to complete is a quantity reflecting the time course of the work package; ATiThe number of days that the ith work package has started working at the checkpoint; BT (BT)iPlanning the completion days for the ith work package; α is a constant that controls the decay rate of the exponential function, CPI is a cost performance indicator, known as 1/CPIi＝ACWPi/BCWPi；
The following calculation equation is proposed for the projected completion cost of a single work package in progress:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×wa(λ) (4)
wherein: w is aa(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ)＝e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ) Substituting equation (3) into equation (4) to obtain the predicted completion cost of the work package as follows:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×(e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ)) (5)
wherein BACiFor planned cost of work package i, ACWPiFor the actual cost of the work package i of the amount of work done, BCWPiBudget cost for completed workload of work Package i, EACiThe predicted completion cost for work package i.
Further, the value of the constant α controlling the decay rate of the exponential function is determined by the following requirements:
when λ is 0.99, let w2(λ)＝0.99×1/CPIiWhen the value of the weighted prediction function is almost equal to 1/CPIiAt this time, there are:
1-e-αλ0.99, i.e.: e.g. of the type-0.99αWhen the value is 0.01, the solution is obtained: α ═ ln (0.01)/0.99 ═ 4.652.
A project completion fee prediction apparatus comprising:
the determining module is used for respectively determining completed work packages, un-started work packages and ongoing work packages according to the current process of each work package in the project;
the budget module is used for calculating the cost of the completed work package according to the actual cost, calculating the cost of the work package which is not started to be carried out according to the planned cost, and budgeting the cost of the work package which is carried out:
a summary module to summarize costs of completed work packages, costs of un-started work packages, and costs of ongoing work packages.
The cost budgeting steps for an ongoing work package are as follows:
defining the following weighted prediction function considering the progress of the work package:
w1(λ)＝e-αλ (1)
w2(λ)＝1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (2)
wa(λ)＝w1(λ)+w2(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (3)
wherein λ ═ ATi/BTiThe ratio of the number of days that the ith work package has started at the checkpoint to the number of days scheduled to complete is a quantity reflecting the time course of the work package; ATiThe number of days that the ith work package has started working at the checkpoint; BT (BT)iPlanning the completion days for the ith work package; α is a constant that controls the decay rate of the exponential function, CPI is a cost performance indicator, known as 1/CPIi＝ACWPi/BCWPi；
The following calculation equation is proposed for the projected completion cost of a single work package in progress:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×wa(λ) (4)
wherein: w is aa(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ)＝e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ) Substituting equation (3) into equation (4) to obtain the predicted completion cost of the work package as follows:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×(e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ)) (5)
wherein BACiFor planned cost of work package i, ACWPiFor the actual cost of the work package i of the amount of work done, BCWPiBudget cost for completed workload of work Package i, EACiThe predicted completion cost for work package i.
Further, the value of the constant α controlling the decay rate of the exponential function is determined by the following requirements:
when λ is 0.99, let w2(λ)＝0.99×1/CPIiWhen the value of the weighted prediction function is almost equal to 1/CPIiAt this time, there are:
1-e-αλ0.99, i.e.: e.g. of the type-0.99αWhen the value is 0.01, the solution is obtained: α ═ ln (0.01)/0.99 ═ 4.652.
A terminal comprising a processor and a memory, the memory having instructions stored therein, which when executed by the processor, cause the terminal to perform the method of forecasting time-to-completion fees as described above.
A storage medium storing a computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to execute the project completion fee prediction method described above.
Has the advantages that: compared with the current project completion expense prediction method, the method utilizes the work package process weighting prediction function to calculate the ongoing work package completion cost, can predict the situation when the earned value check point is positioned at the initial stage of the work package and generate more accurate results, and can predict the situation when the earned value check point is close to the planned completion time of the work package and generate more accurate results.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a project completion fee prediction method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of a weighted prediction function for a 1/CPI of 1;
FIG. 3 is a graph of a weighted prediction function for a 1/CPI of 0.8;
FIG. 4 is a graph of a weighted prediction function for a 1/CPI of 1.2;
FIG. 5 is a comparison of predicted results of a conventional prediction method and the process weighted work package completion cost prediction method of the present invention.
FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a project completion fee prediction apparatus according to the present invention;
the specific implementation mode is as follows:
the invention is further explained below with reference to the drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, a project completion fee prediction method of the present invention includes: respectively determining a completed work package, an un-started work package and an ongoing work package according to the current process of each work package in the project; calculating the cost of the completed work package according to the actual cost, calculating the cost of the work package which is not started to be carried out according to the planned cost, and budgeting the cost of the work package which is carried out; the costs of completed work packages, un-started work packages, and ongoing work packages are aggregated.
The cost budgeting steps for an ongoing work package are as follows:
defining the following weighted prediction function considering the progress of the work package:
w1(λ)＝e-αλ (1)
w2(λ)＝1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (2)
w(λ)＝w1(λ)+w2(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (3)
wherein λ ═ ATi/BTiChecking points for ith work packageThe ratio of the number of days that the time has begun to the number of days that the plan is over is an amount that reflects the time course of the work package; ATiThe number of days that the ith work package has started working at the checkpoint; BT (BT)iPlanning the completion days for the ith work package; α is a constant that controls the decay rate of the exponential function, CPI is a cost performance indicator that indicates the ratio of the earned value to the actual cost value, which is the ratio between the budget cost for the project to have completed the work and the actual cost to have completed the work. Calculating the formula: CPI is BCWP/ACWP, a concept in earner value law. Known 1/CPIi＝ACWPi/BCWPi；
The α value is determined by the following requirements: when λ is 0.99, let w2(λ)＝0.99×1/CPIiWhen the value of the weighted prediction function is almost equal to 1/CPIi. This time is: 1-e-αλ0.99, i.e.: e.g. of the type-0.99αWhen the value is 0.01, the solution is obtained: α ═ ln (0.01)/0.99 ═ 4.652.
Figures 2 to 4 show the weighted prediction function versus the ratio of the actual time to planned time to start working at the checkpoint for values of 1/CPI calculated at the checkpoint of 1, 0.8 and 1.2 respectively.
The following calculation equation is proposed for the projected completion cost of a single work package in progress:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×wa(λ) (4)
wherein: w is aa(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ)＝e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ) Substituting equation (3) into equation (4) to obtain the predicted completion cost of the work package as follows:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×(e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ)) (5)
equation (5) relates to the progress of the work package, and is therefore referred to as the progress weighted prediction of the completion cost of the work package, where BACiFor planned cost of work package i, ACWPiAs a work bagi actual cost of already performed work, BCWPiBudget cost for completed workload of work Package i, EACiThe predicted completion cost of the work package i;
now, simulation comparative analysis is performed by taking a work package with a budget cost of 30 ten thousand yuan and planned completion for 30 days as an example. The total workload of the work package is to install 100 tons of equipment. The unit price of the budget ton is 30/100-0.3 ten thousand yuan/ton.
The following analysis and comparison was made using the existing method of prediction with uniform cost performance index assumptions (existing first method) and the process weighted prediction method proposed herein, see table below and fig. 5.
Comparing results of the existing method and the process weighted prediction method
Figure BDA0003168509340000061
Figure BDA0003168509340000071
As can be seen from the above table and FIG. 4, the new process weighted work package completion cost prediction method presented herein outperforms the results presented by existing prediction methods.
Aiming at the limitation of the existing project completion cost prediction method in project actual application, the project completion cost prediction method provided by the invention predicts the overall completion cost of the project according to the following ideas: the cost of the completed work package is calculated according to the actual cost ACWP, the cost of the work package which is not started to be carried out is calculated according to the planned cost BCWS, and the cost of the work package which is carried out is calculated by adopting a new process weighted work package completion cost prediction method provided by the text. The new process weighting work package completion cost prediction method can predict the situation when the earned value check point is positioned at the initial stage of the work package and generate a more accurate result, and can predict the situation when the earned value check point is close to the planned completion time of the work package and generate a more accurate result, wherein the total project completion cost is the sum of the three items. Namely:
Figure BDA0003168509340000072
wherein: p + m + q ═ N, EAC is the total predicted cost of the project; ACWPiFor the ith actual cost of the work Package, EACjFor the predicted cost of the jth ongoing work Package, BCWSkBudgeting cost for the kth not-yet-done work package; p is the number of completed work packages, m is the number of work packages in progress, q is the number of work packages not in progress, and N is the total number of work packages for the project.
As shown in fig. 5, a project completion fee prediction apparatus of the present invention includes: the determining module is used for respectively determining completed work packages, un-started work packages and ongoing work packages according to the current process of each work package in the project; the budget module is used for calculating the cost of the completed work package according to the actual cost, calculating the cost of the work package which is not started to be carried out according to the planned cost, and budgeting the cost of the work package which is carried out: a summary module to summarize costs of completed work packages, costs of un-started work packages, and costs of ongoing work packages.
The cost budgeting steps for an ongoing work package are as follows:
defining the following weighted prediction function considering the progress of the work package:
w1(λ)＝e-αλ (1)
w2(λ)＝1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (2)
wa(λ)＝w1(λ)+w2(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (3)
wherein λ ═ ATi/BTiThe ratio of the number of days that the ith work package has started at the checkpoint to the number of days that the plan has been completed is a response to the time course of the work packageAn amount of (d); ATiThe number of days that the ith work package has started working at the checkpoint; BT (BT)iPlanning the completion days for the ith work package; α is a constant that controls the decay rate of the exponential function, CPI is a cost performance indicator, known as 1/CPIi＝ACWPi/BCWPi；
The α value is determined by the following requirements: when λ is 0.99, let w2(λ)＝0.99×1/CPIiWhen the value of the weighted prediction function is almost equal to 1/CPIiAt this time, there are: 1-e-αλ0.99, i.e.: e.g. of the type-0.99αWhen the value is 0.01, the solution is obtained: α ═ ln (0.01)/0.99 ═ 4.652;
the following calculation equation is proposed for the projected completion cost of a single work package in progress:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×wa(λ) (4)
wherein: w is aa(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ)＝e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ) Substituting equation (3) into equation (4) to obtain the predicted completion cost of the work package as follows:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×(e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ)) (5)
wherein BACiFor planned cost of work package i, ACWPiFor the actual cost of the work package i of the amount of work done, BCWPiBudget cost for completed workload of work Package i, EACiThe predicted completion cost for work package i.
The terminal comprises a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores instructions, and the processor executes the instructions to cause the terminal to execute the project completion expense prediction method.
A storage medium storing a computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to execute the project completion fee prediction method described above.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and decorations can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these modifications and decorations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A method for predicting completion costs of a project, the method comprising: respectively determining a completed work package, an un-started work package and an ongoing work package according to the current process of each work package in the project; the cost of completed work packages is calculated according to the actual cost, the cost of work packages which are not started to be carried out is calculated according to the planned cost, and the cost of the work packages which are carried out is budgeted: aggregating the costs of completed work packages, the costs of non-started work packages, and the costs of ongoing work packages;
the cost budgeting steps of the ongoing work package are as follows:
defining the following weighted prediction function considering the progress of the work package:
w1(λ)＝e-αλ (1)
w2(λ)＝1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (2)
wa(λ)＝w1(λ)+w2(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (3)
wherein λ ═ ATi/BTiThe ratio of the number of days that the ith work package has started at the checkpoint to the number of days scheduled to complete is a quantity reflecting the time course of the work package; ATiThe number of days that the ith work package has started working at the checkpoint; BT (BT)iPlanning the completion days for the ith work package; α is a constant that controls the decay rate of the exponential function, CPI is a cost performance indicator, known as 1/CPIi＝ACWPi/BCWPi；
The following calculation equation is proposed for the projected completion cost of a single work package in progress:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×wa(λ) (4)
wherein: w is aa(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ)＝e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ) Substituting equation (3) into equation (4) to obtain the predicted completion cost of the work package as follows:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×(e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ)) (5)
wherein BACiFor planned cost of work package i, ACWPiFor the actual cost of the work package i of the amount of work done, BCWPiBudget cost for completed workload of work Package i, EACiThe predicted completion cost for work package i.
2. A project completion expense prediction method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the constant α value controlling the decay rate of the exponential function is determined by the following requirements:
when λ is 0.99, let w2(λ)＝0.99×1/CPIiWhen the value of the weighted prediction function is almost equal to 1/CPIiAt this time, there are:
1-e-αλ0.99, i.e.: e.g. of the type-0.99αWhen the value is 0.01, the solution is obtained: α ═ ln (0.01)/0.99 ═ 4.652.
3. A project completion fee prediction apparatus, comprising:
the determining module is used for respectively determining completed work packages, un-started work packages and ongoing work packages according to the current process of each work package in the project;
the budget module is used for calculating the cost of the completed work package according to the actual cost, calculating the cost of the work package which is not started to be carried out according to the planned cost, and budgeting the cost of the work package which is carried out:
a summary module to summarize costs of completed work packages, costs of un-started work packages, and costs of ongoing work packages.
4. The project completion fee prediction apparatus as claimed in claim 3, wherein the cost budgeting step of the ongoing work package is as follows:
defining the following weighted prediction function considering the progress of the work package:
w1(λ)＝e-αλ (1)
w2(λ)＝1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (2)
wa(λ)＝w1(λ)+w2(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ) (3)
wherein λ ═ ATi/BTiThe ratio of the number of days that the ith work package has started at the checkpoint to the number of days scheduled to complete is a quantity reflecting the time course of the work package; ATiThe number of days that the ith work package has started working at the checkpoint; BT (BT)iPlanning the completion days for the ith work package; α is a constant that controls the decay rate of the exponential function, CPI is a cost performance indicator, known as 1/CPIi＝ACWPi/BCWPi；
The following calculation equation is proposed for the projected completion cost of a single work package in progress:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×wa(λ) (4)
wherein: w is aa(λ)＝e-αλ+1/CPIi×(1-e-αλ)＝e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ) Substituting equation (3) into equation (4) to obtain the predicted completion cost of the work package as follows:
EACi＝ACWPi+(BACi-BCWPi)×(e-αλ+ACWPi/BCWPi×(1-e-αλ)) (5)
wherein BACiFor the projected cost of the work package i,ACWPifor the actual cost of the work package i of the amount of work done, BCWPiBudget cost for completed workload of work Package i, EACiThe predicted completion cost for work package i.
5. The project completion fee prediction apparatus as set forth in claim 4, wherein the value of the constant α controlling the decay rate of the exponential function is determined by the following requirements:
when λ is 0.99, let w2(λ)＝0.99×1/CPIiWhen the value of the weighted prediction function is almost equal to 1/CPIiAt this time, there are:
1-e-αλ0.99, i.e.: e.g. of the type-0.99αWhen the value is 0.01, the solution is obtained: α ═ ln (0.01)/0.99 ═ 4.652.
6. A terminal comprising a processor and a memory, the memory having stored therein instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the terminal to perform the method of any of claims 1-2.
7. A storage medium, characterized in that the storage medium stores a computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform the method according to any one of claims 1-2.
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