CN108416477A - It is a kind of that multi-dimensional optimization method is implemented based on the distribution network engineering for improving Earned Value - Google Patents
It is a kind of that multi-dimensional optimization method is implemented based on the distribution network engineering for improving Earned Value Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Multi-dimensional optimization method is implemented based on the distribution network engineering for improving Earned Value the invention discloses a kind of, belong to distribution network engineering and implements prediction technique technical field, in order to enable traditional Earned Value to carry out more realistic analysis to distribution network engineering project implementation situation, in discrimination basic parameter, on the basis of index of performance related notion, influence according to new work task and original plan task to project, it is further proposed that planning work task investment speedup index S SPI1 and new work investment speedup index S SPI2, Payment control index CCPI1 and newly-increased Payment control index CCPI2, it is further improved completion prediction index EACt and completion investment forecasting index EAC.By supplementing Earned Value basic parameter and index, the comprehensive performance management of engineering project can be more fully carried out.And by an example to Earned Value row operation analysis after improvement, to enhance Earned Value to executing analysis ability of both project cost and progress performance.
Description
Technical field
Implement prediction technique technical field the present invention relates to distribution network engineering, more particularly to it is a kind of based on improving Earned Value
Distribution network engineering implements multi-dimensional optimization method.
Background technology
With the rapid development of China's electric utility, distribution network engineering construction scale is growing day by day, and technology requires also more next
It is higher so that the input of fund is also increasing, to reinforce improving the project construction management of distribution network engineering, need to be built to power distribution network
If the fund and progress of project are controlled, distributing rationally for resource is realized, improve the progress monitoring of engineering.But it is traditional
The method of management distribution network engineering be there is a problem that a large amount of, and power distribution network is caused to go wrong again and again during construction, this
A little problems cause input that cannot adequately bring economic benefit, cannot guarantee that the reasonable construction within the duration.Distribution
The features such as net engineering project quantity is big, engineering attribute classification is more, monomer project scale is small, building site distribution dissipates so that original meter
Draw job order, content is not easy to control, when change, often changed in the action of original plan, quote Earned Value
The cost of energy all-the-way tracking project and the comprehensive of progress carry out situation and rectify a deviation in time, but EVM also has certain defect, does not examine such as
Consider possible change in the work, to the implementation situation monitoring deficiency of individual event task in engineering, power distribution network work cannot be accurately reflected often
The actual implementation situation of journey, can not make the prediction to tally with the actual situation.
For defect existing for EVM, lot of domestic and international scholar once improved EVM theories, more to adapt to engineering
Practice of construction feature, it is green for a long time it is equal earn value analytic approach with two level, project is refined, to project inner case progress detailed analysis
To solve global analyses of the tradition EVM just for project, the key applications such as Cheng Peng path method (CPM) modeling solves traditional EVM
The problem of only focusing on global analysis, having ignored each work-based logic relationship between project inside.To consider the ambiguity and degree of environment
The uncertainty of data generating procedure is measured, while considering that α is used in the variation of the reliability of metric data in practice, Zhao Chengwei etc.
Cut set method quantifies fuzzy number, proposes that a kind of newly fuzzy based on Z-number fuzzy numbers earns value model.The it is proposeds such as YONGWOO KIM
One new client earns value (CEV) cost measurement standard, to distinguish value work and non-value work.JBatselier etc.
Earned Value Management (EVM) control method is combined with Smoothing Forecasting, the prediction extended between cost and time is public
Formula.
But may have the variation of change in the work (new work) and quantity in actual operation, because of the feelings of these variations
Condition cannot all be reflected from progress total deviation SPI and expense total deviation CPI, to which project manager determines according to Earned Value
Plan still has comparable difficulty.
The either above improved method or programme evaluation and review technique (PERT), multiple regression procedure, work breakdown structure (WBS)
(WBS) or chaining key administrative skill (CCPM), although all being had made intensive studies to project cost-progress monitoring and obtaining one
Fixed progress, but the excavation of the essential connotation of Earned Value is not enough, theory support part is not rigorous enough, is managed herein to EVM
On the basis of according to discrimination and supplement is carried out, using improved Earned Value, works original plan and change work carries out area
And adjustment, do not propose new basic parameter definition, and expense index of performance (SPI) is carried out and progress index of performance (CPI) into
After row improves, new investment speedup index (SSPI) and progress performance indicators (CCPI) are proposed, enhance the practical execution to engineering
The variance analysis of situation.To power distribution network asset management in the construction process and progress control many weak links that may be present
Carry out integral traffic control.
The patent document of Publication No. CN105719090A discloses a kind of social capital investment distribution based on economy
Net decision-making technique.This approach includes the following steps：(1) it determines and participates in power distribution network project investment link；(2) distribution web area is analyzed
Each investment link；(3) investment budgey and cost recovery time are determined；(4) setting power distribution network invests each link prospective earnings；
(5) social capital investment power distribution network decision economy is calculated；(6) judge whether to reach economy setting target；(7) really
Determine power distribution network investment decision scheme.The social capital investment power distribution network decision-making technique based on economy that this method provides passes through bright
True investor intends the work undertaken in power distribution network project, in conjunction with investor investment budgey and distribution web area it is related at
This, is calculated by investing power distribution network decision economy to social capital, enables the clear cost of investment recycling effect of investor
Benefit, while this method can invest power distribution network for social capital and provide decision support.But this method can only be to power distribution network project
In fund estimated and controlled, be unable to the progress of item controlled, and do not consider the change during project actual implementation, in advance
It is inaccurate.
The patent document of Publication No. CN105989419A disclose a kind of correction of intelligent distribution network Engineering Project with
Optimization method, it is characterised in that first, investment related data in obtaining intelligent distribution network engineering project life cycle management
On the basis of, intelligent distribution network Project Life Cycle is divided into：Early-stage preparations, supervision of construction, operation and maintenance three phases；Its
It is secondary, with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the investment monitoring point in each stage is refined；Then, using multi-factor analysis approach, for each
Fund deviation on a monitoring point finds variance analysis reason, is corrected and optimized；Finally, by departure, deviating cause,
Correcting method and optimization method and result feed back to relevant departments.The invention can be effectively performed what capital fund used
Control, variance analysis, correction and optimization, to make intelligent distribution network project in whole life cycle, the input of capital fund
Reach controllable with recycling, provides method to the following similar control of investment, so that it is tended to more specification, more rationally.But the hair
It is bright to carry out tracing control to the progress of the project implementation, and the change during project actual implementation is not considered, it cannot achieve
Comprehensively carry out the comprehensive performance management of engineering project.
Invention content
In view of this, multi-dimensional optimization method is implemented based on the distribution network engineering for improving Earned Value the present invention provides a kind of,
New basic parameter index and implementation deviation index are proposed to traditional EVM theories, the concept of EVM is redefined, it is right
Power distribution network asset management in the construction process and progress control many weak links that may be present carry out integral traffic controls, with more
Adapt to applications of the EVM in power distribution network in project.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution used in the present invention is：
It is a kind of that multi-dimensional optimization method is implemented based on the distribution network engineering for improving Earned Value, it comprises the steps of：
S1：The preparation for carrying out distribution network construction project, formulates the detailed project budget and plan, and carry out project data
Screening, sorts out the master data in each month in the duration：Plan the estimated cost BCWS of quantities, the practical of project completed amount is taken
With the plan completed amount in ACWP and each month and actually accomplish quantities；
S2：The original plan work and change work of project are distinguished and adjusted, after engineering completes 15%, starts to continue
The cost-progress of engineering is monitored and is predicted, the estimated cost BCWP of project completed amount, improved basic parameter are calculated
The actual cost BCWP ' of i.e. newly-increased planned workload, while drawing out engineering and earning value appraisal curve figure；
S3：It works and checks in the original plan that the phase changes work according to forward's phase, calculate planning work task investment speedup index S SPI1
With new work investment speedup index S SPI2；Payment control index CCPI1 and newly-increased Payment control index CCPI2 increases investment
Fast index S SPI and Payment control index CCPI are analyzed；
S4：Analysis project and existing cost and progress level of performance, the completion date EACt to engineering and completion total cost EAC
It is predicted；
S5：Quantify the cost and progress of distribution network engineering, improved four basic parameters of comprehensive analysis, two index of performance and two
Relationship between a index of estimate is monitored and manages according to each index to each stage in the duration, if deviation is rational
Within the scope of, illustrate that the current cost-progress situation control of engineering is good, the work of next step can be carried out；If deviation is too big,
Zone of reasonableness beyond engine request must then take targetedly measure to carry out control and improvement and optimization, and detect again as early as possible
Data, again monitoring analysis with it is perfect, can control within zone of reasonableness up to deviation.
Further, in the step S2, it is assumed that the planning work after process variations has all occurred, i.e., all to forward's phase
Task can directly be measured, calculate altering engineering should use cost price when, change in the work is divided into
Two class situations are discussed：First, there is the change work of action of the same race in original plan works；Second is that change in the work is interior
Hold does not have job family i.e. new work in original plan works.
Further, in the step S5, improved four basic parameters are：The estimated cost BCWP of finished jobs amount,
The estimated cost BCWS of planned workload, the actual cost ACWP that workload is completed increase the actual cost of planned workload newly
BCWP ', calculation formula BCWP '=planned workload × practical unit price=QA × PB.
Further, it in the step S2, is indicated with workload Q and work unit price variable P, it is assumed that in original plan work
There is no the change work i.e. new work of job family in work；For real work CA is completed, task
Total number be for n；For completed schedule works CP, the task number of new work is n0, then completed schedule
The task number of work is n-n0；Also, the planned unit price of new work task is identical as practical unit price；Introduce following become
Amount：QAi indicates that the workload of i-th of planning work task, * QAi indicate the workload of i-th of new work task；PAi is indicated
The planned unit price of i-th of planning work task, * PAi indicate the planned unit price of i-th of new work task；QBi is indicated i-th
The workload of practical work, * QBi indicate the workload of i-th of new work task；PBi indicates that i-th of real work is appointed
The practical unit price of business, * PBi indicate the practical unit price of i-th of new work task；Then the estimated cost BCWS of planned workload exists
The original plan of forward's phase the carried out estimated cost that works is：
Work carried out actual cost of original plans of the actual cost BCWP ' of planned workload in forward's phase is：
The estimated cost BCWP of finished jobs amount is：
The actual cost ACWP that workload is completed is：
Further, in the step S5, two index of performance are progress index of performance SPI and expense index of performance CPI；
Progress index of performance SPI refers to the ratio between the estimated cost of the estimated cost and planned workload of forward's phase project finished jobs amount,
That is SPI=BCWP/BCWS, SPI=1 indicate that actual progress is equal to target advance；Improved investment speedup index S SPI, is ensureing
The control for ensureing expense while progress, works as SSPI>1 indicates project in forward's phase and checks that the phase invests what reasonable and progress shifted to an earlier date
In the case of invest speedup, SSPI<1 indicate project forward's phase and check phase progress delay in the case of investment slow down, need into
Row adjustment；It is worked according to original plan and change work is divided into planning work task investment speedup index S SPI1 and is thrown with new work
Money speedup index S SPI2 two parts are studied；
Calculation formula is：
In order to which the investment and schedule variance situation, calculation formula that reflect newly-increased action are adjusted to:
Further, the expense index of performance CPI refers to the ratio between estimated cost and actual cost value of finished jobs amount；
That is CPI=BCWP/ACWP, improved Payment control index CCPI, is monitored the actual cost in the project implementation process；
CCPI>1 indicates project forward's phase and checks that the expense investment of phase is reasonable, relatively good, CCPI<1 indicates project forward's phase and inspection
The expense for looking into the phase invests unreasonable, cost overruns, and CPI=1 indicates project forward's phase and checks that the expense investment of phase is relatively uniform；
According to forward's phase, work CA and inspection phase change work CS in the original plan, are divided into Payment control index CCPI1 and newly-increased Payment control
Index CCPI2 two parts are studied；Including following two parts CPI=CCPI1+CCPI2, calculation formula is：
Further, in the step S5, described two index of estimate are that estimate at completion EAC and completion date are estimated
Calculate EACt；If estimate at completion EAC indicates that project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, complete complete
Portion works estimated required total cost；Calculation formula is EAC=BAC/CPI；BAC is the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed
Value；If completion date estimation EACt indicates that project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, entire project is completed
It is expected that the total time needed；Calculation formula is EACt=(BAC/SPI)/(schedule of BAC/ originals)=original schedule/SPI；
If project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, total cost estimation EAC calculation formula are：
If project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, completion date estimation EACt calculation formula are：
Wherein BAC is the value for the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed；BACt is former schedule.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
CPI=BCWP/ACWP indicates expense execution efficiency or benefit in the variance analysis of the present invention.SPI=BCWP/BCWS is indicated
Workload shifts to an earlier date or the rate of delay.But, only by the basic index of traditional Earned Value, Deviation Indices, index of performance and estimate
Index analysis is calculated, cannot more fully reflect the practical executive condition of Engineering Project Implementation, so as to cause the information analysis of mistake
With decision.
The present invention, using improved Earned Value, counts original on the basis of carrying out discrimination and supplement to EVM theoretical foundations
It draws work and change work is distinguished and adjusted, propose new basic parameter definition, and carry out to expense index of performance (SPI)
After being improved with progress index of performance (CPI), new investment speedup index (SSPI) and progress performance indicators (CCPI) are proposed,
Enhance the variance analysis to the practical executive condition of engineering；It can to power distribution network asset management in the construction process and progress control
Many weak links existing for energy carry out integral traffic control；The concept of EVM is redefined, more to adapt to EVM in power distribution network
Application in middle project.
(1) relative to the Earned Value before improvement, according to more than the project of power distribution network and relative distribution, individual works type is more, the time
It is long, it is easy, cause engineering variation possibility larger the features such as more by ectocine, it is contemplated that the case where change in the work.
(2) relationship and difference between the cost progress and reality of more detailed description engineering original plan, introduces new basic ginseng
Number BCWP ', to describe the actual cost of engineering project quantities.
(3) original progress index of performance SPI and the excessively general problem of expense index of performance CPI concepts are improved, is further drawn
Enter to invest speedup index S SPI, Payment control index CCPI, the implementation feelings of specific cost progress in each duration supplemented with engineering
Condition and the insufficient defect of analysis on altered project.
(4) on the basis of improved basic parameter and index of performance, the prediction index of EVM is improved, to project implementation situation
More accurately predicted.By example, the synthesis of engineering project can more fully be carried out by demonstrating improved Earned Value
Performance management.
Description of the drawings
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is the curve graph for earning value principle.
Fig. 2 is analysis method and modified flow based on improved EVM.
Fig. 3 is the line chart of traditional EVM basic parameters.
Fig. 4 is the line chart of improved EVM basic parameters.
Fig. 5 is the line chart of traditional EVM implementation deviations index.
Fig. 6 is the line chart for improving EVM implementation deviation indexs.
Specific implementation mode
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
Attached drawing 1-6, the technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described.Obviously, described embodiment is this
A part of the embodiment of invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on described the embodiment of the present invention, the common skill in this field
The every other embodiment that art personnel are obtained, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Embodiment：
The core concept of traditional Earned Value is by introducing a crucial intermediate variable --- value is earned, to help project administrator
The deviation of analysis project cost, progress and practical executive condition with plan.It is related to 3 basic parameters (planned workload it is pre-
Calculation expense BCWS, the estimated cost BCWP that workload is completed, reality of work expense ACWP is completed) as shown in table 1；2 partially
Poor analysis indexes (cost warp value CV and schedule variance value SV and 2 Performance Index indexs (expense index of performance CPI and progresses
Execute index SPI) and two index of estimate.
1 EVM basic parameters of table
Earned Value (EVM) helps the feelings of analysis project cost and progress by introducing intermediate variable " earning value (BCWP) "
Condition, is in progress at present to the cost of engineering and duration by achievement data and development trend is made and scientifically judges and predict.
There are two Deviation Indices for the evaluation index of Earned Value, and cost warp (CV) is between check data BCWP and ACWP
Difference；Indicate that over-expense or implementation effect are bad when CV is negative value；Otherwise indicate surplus or implementation effect when CV is positive value
Well.If CV=0, expression project executes according to plan.Difference of the schedule variance (SV) between check data BCWP and BCWS.When
Indicate that the progress of project shifts to an earlier date when SV is positive value, SV is that negative value indicates that the progress of project is delayed.If SV=0 shows progress
It executes according to plan.
Other two index of performance, expense index of performance (CPI) are the estimated cost and actual cost value of finished jobs amount
The ratio between；CPI>1 indicates that the actual cost of project is less than budget, CPI<The actual cost of 1 expression project excesses budget, CPI=1 tables
Show that actual cost is consistent with estimated cost；If CPI=1, show that Project Cost carries out according to plan.Progress index of performance (SPI) is
The estimated cost of project finished jobs amount and the ratio between the estimated cost of planned workload.SPI>1 expression project actual progress shifts to an earlier date,
SPI<1 expression project actual progress is delayed, and SPI=1 indicates that actual progress is equal to target advance, as shown in table 2.
2 EVM Deviation Indices of table
Estimate at completion (EAC) in two predictive variables of Earned Value if the project of expression and spent cost at present and
Progress level is consistent, then completes the estimated required total cost that all works.Calculation formula is EAC=BAC/CPI.BAC is
The value for the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed；Completion date estimate (EACt) if the project of expression with spent cost at present and into
Degree level is consistent, and completes the entire project estimated total time needed.Calculation formula is EACt=(BAC/SPI)/(BAC/ originals
Schedule)=original schedule/SPI.
The curve graph for earning value principle is as shown in Fig. 1.Ordinate indicates that the expense of engineering, abscissa indicate the implementation of engineering
Duration.Wherein BCWS curves refer to the estimated cost curve of planned workload.BCWP curves refer to that the pre- of finished jobs amount is counted as
This curve.ACWP curves are the actual cost curve that workload is completed.Without straight between tri- indexs of BCWS, BCWP, ACWP
Contact is connect, Fig. 1 is a kind of situation explanation in a variety of situations.
One kind implementing multi-dimensional optimization method, analysis and modified flow such as 2 institute of attached drawing based on Earned Value distribution network engineering is improved
Show, comprises the steps of：
S1：The preparation for carrying out distribution network construction project, formulates the detailed project budget and plan, and carry out project data
Screening, sorts out the master data in each month in the duration：Plan the estimated cost BCWS of quantities, the practical of project completed amount is taken
With the plan completed amount in ACWP and each month and actually accomplish quantities；
S2：The original plan work and change work of project are distinguished and adjusted, after engineering completes 15%, starts to continue
The cost-progress of engineering is monitored and is predicted, the estimated cost BCWP of project completed amount, improved basic parameter are calculated
The actual cost BCWP ' of i.e. newly-increased planned workload, while drawing out engineering and earning value appraisal curve figure；
S3：It works and checks in the original plan that the phase changes work according to forward's phase, calculate planning work task investment speedup index S SPI1
With new work investment speedup index S SPI2；Payment control index CCPI1 and newly-increased Payment control index CCPI2 increases investment
Fast index S SPI and Payment control index CCPI are analyzed；
S4：Analysis project and existing cost and progress level of performance, the completion date EACt to engineering and completion total cost EAC
It is predicted；
S5：Quantify the cost and progress of distribution network engineering, improved four basic parameters of comprehensive analysis, two index of performance and two
Relationship between a index of estimate is monitored and manages according to each index to each stage in the duration, if deviation is rational
Within the scope of, illustrate that the current cost-progress situation control of engineering is good, the work of next step can be carried out；If deviation is too big,
Zone of reasonableness beyond engine request must then take targetedly measure to carry out control and improvement and optimization, and detect again as early as possible
Data, again monitoring analysis with it is perfect, can control within zone of reasonableness up to deviation.
(1) the adjustment logic of the new basic parameter of Earned Value：
The basic parameter adjustment of Earned Value is as shown above：In addition to three basic parameters of EVM analytic approach, in order to define in more detail
Concept increases the actual cost (BCWP ') of planned workload newly, with the target advance of this more detailed reaction engineering and actual cost
Match condition, calculation formula BCWP '=planned workload × practical unit price=QA*PB.Result in the new of Earned Value
Basic parameter (BCWS, BCWP ', BCWP, ACWP).
(2) the metering formula of the new basic parameter of Earned Value：
In order to enable improved Earned Value to facilitate with formula, table is carried out with workload (Q) and the monovalent variable (P) of work herein
Show, is closed in order to enable establishing corresponding quantity between the number of the practical work occurred and the task number of planning work
System, it is assumed that do not have the change work (new work) of job family to occur in original plan works.For real work is completed
(CA) for, the total number of task is for n.For completed schedule works (CP), the task of new work
Number is n0, then the task number of completed schedule work is n-n0.Also, the planned unit price and reality of new work task
Border unit price is identical.Introduce following variable：QAi indicates that the workload of i-th of planning work task, * QAi indicate i-th of newly-increased work
Make the workload of task；PAi indicates the planned unit price of i-th of planning work task, * PAi i-th of new work task of expression
Planned unit price.QBi indicates that the workload of i-th of practical work, * QBi indicate the workload of i-th of new work task；
PBi indicates that the practical unit price of i-th of practical work, * PBi indicate the practical unit price of i-th of new work task.Then plan
Work carried out estimated cost of original plan of the estimated cost (BCWS) of workload in forward's phase is：
Work carried out actual cost of original plans of the actual cost BCWP ' of planned workload in forward's phase is：
The estimated cost BCWP of finished jobs amount also needs to consider the i.e. newly-increased work of change work in addition to completed original plan works
The performance of work, estimated cost are：
The actual cost ACWP that workload is completed also needs to consider that change work is i.e. newly-increased in addition to completed original plan works
The performance of work, actual cost are：
Improvement progress implementation deviation：
Progress index of performance (SPI) refers to the estimated cost of the estimated cost and planned workload of forward's phase project finished jobs amount
The ratio between, i.e. SPI=BCWP/BCWS, SPI=1 indicate that actual progress is equal to target advance.
For the more careful rational control of implementation deviation invested to expense, it is based on traditional expense implementation deviation index (SPI),
New investment speedup index S SPI is used herein, is ensured the control of expense while ensureing progress, is worked as SSPI>1 indicates item
Speedup, SSPI are invested in the case that mesh is reasonable in forward's phase and the investment of inspection phase and progress shifts to an earlier date<1 indicate project in forward's phase and
Inspection phase progress is invested in the case of being delayed slows down, and needs to be adjusted.It is worked according to original plan and change work is divided into plan
Task investment speedup index (SSPI1) is studied with new work investment speedup index (SSPI2) two parts.
In order to reflect that investments and schedule variance situation, calculation formula of the SPI in forward's phase completed planning work content be：
In order to reflect investment and the schedule variance situation of newly-increased action, due to CA be according to there is no job family in CP
The change work of content is defined and adjusts, thus the deviation of the two can reflect generated due to job change
Variation in engineering project work amount；Calculation formula is adjusted to:
Improvement cost implementation deviation：
Expense index of performance (CPI) refers to the ratio between estimated cost and actual cost value of finished jobs amount.CPI=BCWP/ACWP,
To carrying out more careful rational monitoring compared to the implementation deviation situation of the actual cost of planned cost, to use herein newly
Payment control index (CCPI), is monitored the actual cost in the project implementation process.CCPI>1 indicate project forward's phase and
The expense investment of inspection phase is reasonable, relatively good, CCPI<1 indicates project forward's phase and checks that the expense investment of phase is unreasonable, takes
With over-expense, CPI=1 indicates project forward's phase and checks that the expense investment of phase is relatively uniform.It is worked in the original plan according to forward's phase
(CA) it and checks phase change work (CS), is divided into Payment control index (CCPI1) and newly-increased Payment control index (CCPI2) two
Divide and is studied.Including following two parts CPI=CCPI1+CCPI2, calculation formula is：
1, consider that reality of work expense (ACWP) and work is completed simultaneously in the completed planning work of forward's phase (CS) content
Two kinds of expense situations of actual cost (BCWP ') that work is measured, calculation formula are：
2, action CA is completed in the inspection phase and increases the new work calculation not having in CS with respect to original plan action CS
Expense, following formula can react the variation deviation in engineering project work amount generated due to job change.
Improve prediction index：
Two index of estimate are estimate at completion EAC and completion date estimates EACt；If estimate at completion EAC is indicated
Project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, then completes the estimated required total cost that all works；It calculates public
Formula is EAC=BAC/CPI；BAC is the value for the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed；If completion date estimates that EACt indicates project
It is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, completes the entire project estimated total time needed；Calculation formula is
EACt=(BAC/SPI)/(schedule of BAC/ originals)=original schedule/SPI.
On the basis of traditional Earned Value predictive variable, improved basic parameter and implementation deviation index are considered, to preceding
Cutting edge of a knife or a sword phase and the interim original plan work of inspection and change work consider, and feelings are completed to reach the following of more acurrate predictive engine
The purpose of condition and investment situation, formula are as follows：If project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, total cost
Estimate that EAC calculation formula are：
If project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, completion date estimation EACt calculation formula are：
Wherein BAC is the value for the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed；BACt is former schedule.
When calculating the cost price that altering engineering should use, change in the work is divided into two class situations and is discussed：When
There is the change work of action of the same race in original plan works；Second is that the content of change in the work is no same in original plan works
Class work is new work；Assuming that the planning work after process variations has all occurred, i.e., all to forward's phase all task
It can directly be measured.
Improved Earned Value uses sample calculation analysis：
According to the advanced I of 10Kv in certain 10Kv distribution network engineering project in 2015, II lines carry out for southern exposure I, II wire loop net engineering
Sample calculation analysis, the practical completion totally 56 of the power distribution network project, the 10Kv circuits of construction and upgrading totally 55.96 km, duration five
A month.With the advanced I of 10Kv in the power distribution network project, II lines, the engineering project investment for southern exposure I, II wire loop net engineering is
728.65 ten thousand yuan, paid-up investment is 711.82 ten thousand yuan.Investment plan preliminary budget and the accumulative progress of plan are as shown in table 3, engineering
Practical cumulative cost and engineering actual progress are as shown in table 4.
3 investment plan preliminary budget of table and plan add up program
The practical cumulative cost of 4 engineering of table and engineering actual progress table
According in table 3, table 4 be engineering known to invest preliminary budget, engineering project progress, actual progress and actual investment
(ACWP), by these data it can be seen that the estimated cost (BCWS) of work is completed in plan, the estimated cost for being completed work (is earned
Value BCWP) and newly-increased basic parameter plan complete the actual cost (BCWP ') of work.Calculating is summarized as follows 6 institute of table 5 and table
Show.
5 Parameter Calculation table of table
6 implementation deviation computational chart of table
By predictor formula EAC=BAC/CPI and EACt=BAC/SPI can macro-forecast go out engineering can according to plan progress into
Row, and cost estimation has saved about 142872.549 yuan, as shown in table 7 less than 7286500 yuan of the estimated cost of plan.
Table is estimated in 7 budget of table
As can be seen that traditional Earned Value can only analyze the progress of every month and cost general status in the duration, more generally
It is not clear enough.But in actual distribution network engineering, due to disperseing more than engineering and relatively, single classification of the items is more, bad unification
Control by local environment, impact of human dimension in work progress monthly carrying out some change work.Mainly by price
Rise, design reasons, owner's reason, construction reason, humane reason and other reasons some influence factors cause, specifically change work
Make as shown in table 8 below.
Table 8 changes action
If considering to work in the original plan simultaneously and change work, plan completion work (CS) and inspection end-of-term examination to forward's phase being considered
The change work of change in the work is analyzed, then basic parameter and implementation deviation can all generate corresponding due to considering change in the work
And traditional EVM deviation, calculate improved basic parameter value as shown in table 9 and table 10 according to improved formula.
Parameter Calculation table after 9 change in the work of table
Table performance analysis in 101~May table
| Month | CPI | CCPI1 | CCPI2 | SPI | SSPI1 | SSPI2 |
| January | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| 2 months | 0.77 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| March | 1.26 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 1.35 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| April | 1.69 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 1.72 | 0.92 | 0.80 |
| May | 1.97 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1.93 | 0.98 | 0.95 |
More intuitively to embody improved EVM analytical effects, below to each index amount of traditional EVM and improved EVM
Change numerical value conversion at line chart comparative analysis, with the apparent Practical Project situation for showing improved actual effect and project.It is right
The comparison of basic parameter is as shown in Figures 3 and 4.
It obtains earning value evaluation comparison line chart from Fig. 3 and 4 and can be seen that engineering January to March, BCWP is bent in the case of two kinds
Line is substantially at the lower section of BCWS curves, project progress delay.Traditional EVM basic parameters line chart reacted in March to May,
BCWP curves show that progress carries out project progress according to plan above BCWS curves；But improved EVM basic parameters remove curve
Figure then shows that EVM is constantly in below BCWS curves in practice of construction, is not obtained good performance, is needed to begin to from 2 months
Adjust quickening progress.Traditional EVM basic parameters curve graph shows that January to May, BCWP curves are constantly in above ACWP curves,
Show that the actual consumption expense of engineering is less than estimated cost；Situation is not good in Practical Project construction, and BCWP is constantly in
The lower section of ACWP, Practical Project over-expense, and at 2 months to April, over-expense was more serious.BCWP ' is bent in improved EVM curve graphs
Line is also constantly in the lower section of ACWP, also indicates that delayed works and over-expense situation.Tradition EVM analytic approach is pressed if can be seen that,
Can show that engineering overall progress is almost the same, invest the error message do not overspend, can not reaction engineering actual implementation situation, with
The correction time is missed in cause, or even generates more serious consequence.
Improved EVM basic parameters are had calculated that according in table 9, are divided according to multiple saddlebags of new work
Analysis, show that new implementation deviation is as shown in table 10 with improved EVM deviations index of performance, after being improved for clearer reaction
Deviation Indices response situation, make comparison line chart as illustrated in Figures 5 and 6.
It can be seen that by traditional EVM deviation line charts, in the period BCWS of January and 2 month>BCWP>ACWP, CV>0, SV<0,
Illustrate that cost control is good, but progress is delayed.BCWP when 3, April>ACWP>BCWS, SV>0, CV>0, actual motion at
Progress shifts to an earlier date while this is less than planned investment cost, illustrates that later stage progress is very fast, efficiency is higher.In view of change in the work feelings
Condition, improved deviation situation is as shown in figure the following table 11.
Table is estimated in 11 improved prediction of table
It can be seen that, the actual conditions of engineering are, in 1~April, the work after project original plan work (CS) and change in the work
(CA) equal progress lag and cost overruns, show that project encounters significant problem so that new work task expense increases.To whole
From the point of view of the overall condition of a project, the 1st~2 month, CCPI<1 and SSPI<0 whole and serious lag and over-expense；3~April,
CCPI>1 and SSPI>1, overall progress is advanced and expense also controls rationally；When May, the work CCPI1=1 of original plan, explanation
Work (CS) expense is reasonable in the original plan, but SSPI<1, the progress of work (CS) and investment are inconsistent in the original plan, in the phase of inspection
Change SSPI under action (CA)>1, CCPI>1, do not accomplish progress and investment cost rationally with unanimously.SSPI1=5,
CPI1=3 illustrates that the advanced expense of planning work Task Progress has surplus.And CPI2=-8,4~May, CV<0, CV<0, explanation
Progress lags, cost overruns.And SPI1<0 and CPI1>0, CCPI1<1, SSPI1<1 and CCPI2<1, SSPI2<1, illustrate to plan
Task progress lags, and expense has surplus.And CV2 amplification is little, shows relative to 3rd month project new work task expense
With being under control, but the workload of planning work task increases so that progress lags.April, CV=0, SV<0, illustrate into
Degree lag, expenditure are consistent with budget.And SV1=-39, CV1=11, illustrate that the serious progress of planning work task is stagnant but expense has section
It is remaining.CV2=-11 illustrates that new work has obtained complete control 5th month relatively.But the workload of planning work task
It increases so that project process lags.Improved EVM analytic approach has preferably reacted the deviation situation of engineering, has reacted engineering
Practical work efficiency.
It is completed duration and total investment by predictive engine, there are one perspective overall thoughts, according to improved pre-
Survey index, it can be deduced that prediction index is as shown in table 9.
It is predicted according to 5 tradition EVM methods of table, is constructed according to schedule, completion investment can save 142872.549 yuan, work
Phase can as scheduled complete in five months.Relative to traditional Earned Value, if considering change in the work, according to original plan job schedule, though
It can complete as scheduled, but gross investment can overspend 383500 yuan, if considering job change, from the point of view of engineering actual implementation situation, then
Plan time, 390,000 yuan of investment over-expense can be exceeded.Consider the completion and check that end-of-term examination is considered that work forward's phase works in the original plan
282922.34 yuan of the case where job change, forecast of construction progress delay and investment over-expense.Thus project manager need to reinforce every month
The control of change in the work in the construction of progress, has occurred safety accident in overhead transmission line, progress is made to be delayed for such as 3rd month.
Multinomial construction content is increased within 6th month, construction content is changed.Due to the increase of 3rd month new work expense,
So that the investment for planning work task be used to eliminate the influence that new work generates, therefore progress, which also has, to be delayed, in turn
4th month multinomial construction content is caused to increase so as to have larger change in construction.Thus it finds out the cause, is to increasing work newly
Preliminary expenses, action and the safety of work do not carry out strick precaution and control.
The above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for those skilled in the art
For, without departing from the principles of the present invention, it can also make several improvements and retouch, these improvements and modifications
It should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of implementing multi-dimensional optimization method based on the distribution network engineering for improving Earned Value, it is characterised in that：It comprises the steps of：
S1：The preparation for carrying out distribution network construction project, formulates the detailed project budget and plan, and carry out project data
Screening, sorts out the master data in each month in the duration：Plan the estimated cost BCWS of quantities, the practical of project completed amount is taken
With the plan completed amount in ACWP and each month and actually accomplish quantities；
S2：The original plan work and change work of project are distinguished and adjusted, after engineering completes 15%, starts to continue
The cost-progress of engineering is monitored and is predicted, the estimated cost BCWP of project completed amount, improved basic parameter are calculated
The actual cost BCWP ' of i.e. newly-increased planned workload, while drawing out engineering and earning value appraisal curve figure；
S3：It works and checks in the original plan that the phase changes work according to forward's phase, calculate planning work task investment speedup index S SPI1
With new work investment speedup index S SPI2；Payment control index CCPI1 and newly-increased Payment control index CCPI2 increases investment
Fast index S SPI and Payment control index CCPI are analyzed；
S4：Analysis project and existing cost and progress level of performance, the completion date EACt to engineering and completion total cost EAC
It is predicted；
S5：Quantify the cost and progress of distribution network engineering, improved four basic parameters of comprehensive analysis, two index of performance and two
Relationship between a index of estimate is monitored and manages according to each index to each stage in the duration, if deviation is rational
Within the scope of, illustrate that the current cost-progress situation control of engineering is good, the work of next step can be carried out；If deviation is too big,
Zone of reasonableness beyond engine request must then take targetedly measure to carry out control and improvement and optimization, and detect again as early as possible
Data, again monitoring analysis with it is perfect, can control within zone of reasonableness up to deviation.
2. as described in claim 1 a kind of based on the distribution network engineering implementation multi-dimensional optimization method for improving Earned Value, feature
It is：In the step S2, it is assumed that the planning work after process variations has all occurred, i.e., all to forward's phase all task
It can directly be measured, when calculating the cost price that altering engineering should use, change in the work is divided into two class situations and is carried out
It discusses：First, there is the change work of action of the same race in original plan works；Second is that the content of change in the work is in original plan work
There is no job family i.e. new work in work.
3. as claimed in claim 2 a kind of based on the distribution network engineering implementation multi-dimensional optimization method for improving Earned Value, feature
It is：In the step S5, improved four basic parameters are：The estimated cost BCWP of finished jobs amount, planned workload
Estimated cost BCWS, the actual cost ACWP that workload is completed increase the actual cost BCWP ' of planned workload newly, calculate
Formula is BCWP '=planned workload × practical unit price=QA × PB.
4. as claimed in claim 3 a kind of based on the distribution network engineering implementation multi-dimensional optimization method for improving Earned Value, feature
It is：It in the step S2, is indicated with workload Q and work unit price variable P, it is assumed that not similar in original plan works
The change work of work, that is, new work occurs；For real work CA is completed, the total number of task be for
n；For completed schedule works CP, the task number of new work is n0, then the work of completed schedule work is appointed
Business number is n-n0；Also, the planned unit price of new work task is identical as practical unit price；Introduce following variable：QAi indicates the
The workload of i planning work task, * QAi indicate the workload of i-th of new work task；PAi indicates i-th of plan work
Make the planned unit price of task, * PAi indicate the planned unit price of i-th of new work task；QBi indicates i-th of practical work
Workload, * QBi indicate the workload of i-th of new work task；PBi indicates the practical list of i-th of practical work
Valence, * PBi indicate the practical unit price of i-th of new work task；Then originals of the estimated cost BCWS of planned workload in forward's phase
The estimated cost that planning work is carried out is：
Work carried out actual cost of original plans of the actual cost BCWP ' of planned workload in forward's phase is：
The estimated cost BCWP of finished jobs amount is：
The actual cost ACWP that workload is completed is：
5. as claimed in claim 4 a kind of based on the distribution network engineering implementation multi-dimensional optimization method for improving Earned Value, feature
It is：In the step S5, two index of performance are progress index of performance SPI and expense index of performance CPI；Progress index of performance
SPI refers to the ratio between the estimated cost of the estimated cost and planned workload of forward's phase project finished jobs amount, i.e. SPI=BCWP/
BCWS, SPI=1 indicate that actual progress is equal to target advance；Improved investment speedup index S SPI, is protected while ensureing progress
The control of card expense, works as SSPI>1 indicates project in forward's phase and checks that the phase invests investment in the case that reasonable and progress shifts to an earlier date and increases
Speed, SSPI<1 indicates that project investment in the case of forward's phase and inspection phase progress delay is slowed down, and needs to be adjusted；According to original
Planning work and change work are divided into planning work task investment speedup index S SPI1 and invest speedup index with new work
SSPI2 two parts are studied；
Calculation formula is：
In order to which the investment and schedule variance situation, calculation formula that reflect newly-increased action are adjusted to:
6. as claimed in claim 5 a kind of based on the distribution network engineering implementation multi-dimensional optimization method for improving Earned Value, feature
It is：The expense index of performance CPI refers to the ratio between estimated cost and actual cost value of finished jobs amount；That is CPI=BCWP/
ACWP, improved Payment control index CCPI, is monitored the actual cost in the project implementation process；CCPI>1 indicates project
The investment of the expense of forward's phase and inspection phase is reasonable, relatively good, CCPI<1 indicates project forward's phase and checks the expense investment of phase
Unreasonable, cost overruns, CPI=1 indicates project forward's phase and checks that the expense investment of phase is relatively uniform；According to forward's phase original meter
It draws work CA and checks that the phase changes work CS, be divided into Payment control index CCPI1 and newly-increased Payment control index CCPI2 two parts
It is studied；Including following two parts CPI=CCPI1+CCPI2, calculation formula is：
7. as claimed in claim 6 a kind of based on the distribution network engineering implementation multi-dimensional optimization method for improving Earned Value, feature
It is：In the step S5, described two index of estimate are estimate at completion EAC and completion date estimates EACt；Completion
If total cost estimation EAC indicates that project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, complete all to work estimated
Required total cost；Calculation formula is EAC=BAC/CPI；BAC is the value for the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed；Complete working hour
It estimates that EACt indicates that if project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level between, completes the estimated needs of entire project
Total time；Calculation formula is EACt=(BAC/SPI)/(schedule of BAC/ originals)=original schedule/SPI；
If project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, total cost estimation EAC calculation formula are：
If project is consistent with current spent cost and progress level, completion date estimation EACt calculation formula are：
Wherein BAC is the value for the BCWS that completion budget, that is, project is completed；BACt is former schedule.
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| CN117217770B (en) * | 2023-07-12 | 2024-05-17 | 中建国际建设有限公司 | Carbon emission state evaluation method, dynamic management method and system based on improved winning value theory |
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