CN106682761A - Coal supply and demand pattern optimization method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a coal supply and demand pattern optimization method. At present, imbalance between the supply and demand of coal resources caused by the imbalance of the distribution of the coal resources in the spatial dimension is severe, a supply and demand pattern is not reasonable, and it is urgent to explore a scientific method to optimize the supply and demand pattern. According to the coal supply and demand pattern optimization method of the invention, the supply and demand conditions of coal resources in different regions are determined according to the production and marketing places of coal resources in China and coal flow characteristics, the coal flow functions of different regions are measured with the indexes of self-sufficiency rates and current ratios; demand places and supply places are classified according to the self-sufficiency rates and current ratios; coil supply and demand pattern optimization is transformed into a transportation planning problem for reasonably distributing coal to the demand places from the supply places; a transportation planning model is established with minimizing integrated transportation costs adopted as an objective under the limitation that demand can be satisfied effectively and supply capacity is reasonably utilized; the model is solved through using MATLAB programming; and an optimized coal supply and demand pattern can be obtained.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to energy supply and demand technical field, and in particular to a kind of coal supply and demand pattern optimization method.
Background technology
Coal provides necessary physical resources and supports for social economic development of region, and its change on Spatial Dimension is right
The impact of supply and demand pattern is increasingly projected, and determines the complexity allocated.Specifically, coal supply and demand pattern refers to the specific period
It is interior, the production of a certain regional coal, coal allotment scale and supply-demand structure between consumption and Ferry Status, and zones of different
Degree, its key element refers to total amount, structure, layout, the flow direction of coal supply and demand development within certain period, wherein flow direction includes
The scale of coal flowing and direction, reflect the productive consumption situation of coal in a certain period and the flowing on a certain time point
Situation.
At present, the coal production of China concentrates on the Hebei in the north, the Inner Mongol and Shanxi, Henan at middle part, Shandong and peace
The 4 big production Nesting Zones such as emblem, the Guizhou in southwest, Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing, Shaanxi of northwest, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang；But coal
The distribution of charcoal area of consumption is relatively decentralized, and coal allotment problem is relative complex.Based on the lack of uniformity of spatial distribution, coal in China Chan Xiao area
Contradiction, transferring coal from the west to the east and transporting the coal in the North to the South is difficult to meet the coal demand of the southeastern coastal areas, the southeastern coastal areas
Coal breach is mainly fed by import, and domestic transport power is not enough and the price advantage of the relatively domestic coal of Import Coal causes coal
Import volume remains high for a long time.Therefore, reasonably optimizing coal flow structure, the Coal trades flow direction for realizing optimum efficiency is to solve
The task of top priority of coal imbalance between supply and demand, needs the rational method of Scientific exploration.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of coal supply and demand pattern optimization method, solves state coal production and consumptio
The imbalance between supply and demand of presence, proposes that Transportation Planning model is built on the basis of supply ground, demand ground is divided comes adjusting and optimizing country
Coal supply and demand pattern.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is：
Coal supply and demand pattern optimization method, it is characterised in that：
Comprise the following steps：
Step one：Determine the coal dispensing situation of zones of different, the i.e. coal on the coal breach amount on demand ground and supply ground
Charcoal surplus amount；
Step 2：The coal supply/demand of different regions different times is estimated using degree of self-sufficiency index, and judges coal
The liquidity preference of resource；
Step 3：Its coal flowing function is divided using liquidity ratio index, further combined with coal resources in China stream
Dynamic situation, is supply ground regional classification of the liquidity ratio more than 1, and the regional classification less than 1 is demand ground；
Step 4：On the basis of region supply and demand role defines, coal supply and demand pattern optimization be described as n supply to
The Transportation Planning problem of the m demand ground supply of material, determines object function and constraints；
Step 5：Each parameter value is determined according to cost of railway traffic, and the coal for determining optimization is solved with MATLAB
Supply and demand scheme.
In step 3, determine coal flowing function using liquidity ratio, liquidity ratio be coal resources output with it is defeated
Enter the ratio of amount, computing formula is：
In formula：
RitThe coal liquidity ratio in-i area t periods；
OitThe coal output in-i area t periods；
IitThe coal input quantity in-i area t periods.
In step 4, object function is comprised the following steps with constraints determination：
Ability on each supply ground, between the demand on demand ground and supply and demand node known to cost of transportation under the premise of, coal
Charcoal supply and demand pattern optimization problem is exactly to solve how minimum cost such as to allocate and transport the coal of Reasonable Scale to demand from feed system
System, therefore by the coal amount of the alloting x between areaijUsed as decision variable, total cost of transportation minimum is used as optimization aim, table
Show as follows：
In formula：
Z-object function；
xijCoal the allot amounts of-supply ground j to demand ground i；
cij- supply ground j allots the unit cost of coal, the computing formula of Railway Coal shipping expense to demand ground i
For：Freight charges=be dealt into base price+(operation base price+railway construction fund) * freight mileages+freight and miscellaneous charges.
Constraints includes two：(1) each supply ground amount of alloting sum more than demand i total demand；(2) supply ground
J is less than its supply capacity to the amount of the alloting sum on each demand ground, is expressed as follows：
In formula：
RiThe total demand of-demand ground i, hundred million tons；
SjThe supply capacity of-supply ground j, hundred million tons.
In step 5, the operating procedure that Optimized model builds is：
Build coal supply and demand pattern Optimized model as follows：
The present invention has advantages below：
1st, the total arrangement with consumption is produced based on state coal, in determining production concentration degree, the consumption set of state coal
Degree and overall supply and demand pattern present situation, it is ensured that result of calculation science is accurate.
2nd, it is supply ground by region division by the coal supply and demand function of the index delimited area such as the degree of self-sufficiency, liquidity ratio
With demand ground, the rational allocation and equilibrium allocation for coal resources provide important evidence.
3rd, consider allocation and transportation cost minimization, realize that the targets such as supply-demand structure set up Transportation Planning model solution coal supply and demand
The optimization problem of general layout, contributes to obtaining suitable prioritization scheme.
Specific embodiment
With reference to specific embodiment, the present invention will be described in detail.
The present invention, for the contradiction that coal supply and demand is present, is adopted on the basis of state coal distributional pattern and supply and demand pattern
With the degree of self-sufficiency, liquidity ratio estimate coal resources function, and with this divide supply with demand ground, further by Coal Transport lattice
The Transportation Planning model that office's problem is supplied with being converted into supply to demand, in mesh such as cost of transportation minimum, supply and demand Proper Matchs
Solve under the conditions of mark and determine optimal allocative decision.
The theoretical method of the optimal needs by science of coal supply and demand pattern is realized, the present invention is with national coal supply and demand pattern
Based on present situation, depth excavates the feature of coal flowing, and with Scientific Indicators supply and demand region is divided, and then founding mathematical models are asked
Solution determines optimal supply and demand structure, fundamentally solves the problems, such as coal imbalance between supply and demand, is that the rational allocation for realizing the energy is carried
It is the scientific and technological means for effectively optimizing state coal supply and demand pattern for technical support.
The present invention specifically includes following steps：
Step one：Total arrangement with consumption is produced based on state coal, the general layout feature that coal flows is judged, it is determined that not
With the coal dispensing situation in region, i.e. the coal surplus amount on the coal breach amount on demand ground and supply ground；
Step 2：The coal supply/demand of different regions different times is estimated using degree of self-sufficiency index, determines that coal is provided
The liquidity preference in source；
Step 3：Its coal flowing function is divided using liquidity ratio index, further combined with coal resources in China stream
Dynamic situation, is supply ground regional classification of the liquidity ratio more than 1, and the regional classification less than 1 is demand ground；
Step 4：On the basis of region supply and demand role defines, coal supply and demand pattern optimization be converted into n supply to
The Transportation Planning problem of the m demand ground supply of material, determines object function and constraints；
Step 5：Major parameter value is determined according to cost of railway traffic, and determines optimization with MATLAB Programs
Coal supply and demand scheme.
The invention provides a kind of scientific method for solving coal imbalance between supply and demand, considers coal Distribution Pattern as a whole with flowing
The plan model of tendency structure science is optimized, and for the rational supply and demand pattern of determination, realizes coal resources maximization of utility
It is significant.The present invention will be described in detail below by example.
Step one：Chinese coal is produced and determined with consumptio
Coal resources in China is distributed the regional imbalance with consumption, results in " transporting the coal in the North to the South " and " transferring coal from the west to the east "
Coal flow structure.Specifically, the coal resource distribution in the area that disappears clearly respectively is produced using number concentration, area concentration degree index
Situation, computing formula is as follows.
In formula：
Rn- number concentration；
NkThe coal production amount (or consumption figure) of-main grown place (or area of consumption) k, ten thousand tons；
NAlways- national coal production (consumption) total amount, ten thousand tons.
In formula：
Ra- area concentration degree；
AkThe region area of-main coal production ground (or area of consumption) k, km2；
AAlwaysThe gross area on-national coal production (consumption) ground, km2。
1st, production concentration degree is calculated
Coal resources in China is presented the feature that Xi Duodong is few, northern rich south is lean in the Distribution Pattern of geographical space, main to concentrate
The areas such as Shanxi underdeveloped, the Inner Mongol, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Ningxia are distributed in, wherein, Shanxi, the Inner Mongol, Shaanxi
The 67.6% of the whole nation is accounted for the coal basic unit price in four, Xinjiang province.And the poor regional not only coal of other coal resources preservations
Resource is few, and great majority belong to mining conditions complex area, and coal quality is also poor, and not only development cost is big, and coal
Comprehensive utilization value is not high, and such as Zhejiang coal reserves is 0.44 hundred million tons, and Guangdong coal reserves is only 0.23 hundred million tons, and Shanghai is so far not
It was found that there is coal resources preservation.
Coal concentration degree is specifically calculated in terms of quantity and area two：From the point of view of number concentration, from 2000
45.2% lifts up till now 65% or so, and the localization effects in coal production region are more and more obvious；In terms of area concentration degree, by
It is held essentially constant in the main place of production of coal in China, therefore the change of area concentration degree level is little.
2nd, consume concentration degree to calculate
According to consumption of coal situation, the number concentration of current coal in China total quantity consumed is far below production concentration degree, but
Convergence coefficient illustrates that the big unit area consumption intensity for saving of coal in China consumption is bigger but apparently higher than number concentration.Meanwhile,
In recent years China's energy-consuming number concentration presents a rapidly rising trend, and 50% has been reached；It is empty and area concentration degree is less than 20%
Between convergence coefficient be more than 6.
At present, coal in China main body of consumption concentrates on economically developed eastern region substantially and indivedual productions of energy are big
Save, wherein the most area of consumption of coal is the ground such as Shandong, Jiangsu, the Inner Mongol and Hebei.
3rd, overview judges
The situation that disappears is produced according to the coal in each region, its coal is calculated and is called in (recall) scale such as following table.
Subregion coal production and consumption (hundred million tons)
It can be seen from upper table, Chinese coal surplus region is concentrated mainly on " Sanxi area ", and the coal of the southeastern coastal areas
Charcoal shortage, and shortage area quantity and coal shortage amount have expansion trend, the contradiction in coal Chan Xiao areas, western coal
East fortune and transport the coal in the North to the South and be difficult to the coal demand for meeting the southeastern coastal areas, the coal breach of the southeastern coastal areas mainly pass through into
Mouthful making up, domestic transport power is not enough and the price advantage of the relatively domestic coal of Import Coal cause coal import volume occupy for a long time it is high not
Under.Therefore, although coal import meets to a certain extent the coal demand of China southeastern coastal areas, but based on China's coal
Charcoal produces the national conditions of serious unbalance of disappearing, and the factor such as international coal market price fluctuation, coal import management and policy, China north
Coal south fortune, the basic flow structure of transferring coal from the west to the east do not have big change.Therefore, domestic coal flow structure how is optimized, it is real
The Coal trades flow direction of existing optimum efficiency is to solve the task of top priority of Chinese coal imbalance between supply and demand.
Step 2：The judgement of each department coal resources flowing function
It is comprehensive to calculate the coal supply and demand scale in each region, and it is defined with this using the degree of self-sufficiency, liquidity ratio two indices
Supply and demand role.
1st, the function that flows determines
The degree of self-sufficiency is the coal production amount in somewhere and the ratio of consumption figure, for estimating the tendency of coal resources flowing, meter
Calculate as follows：
In formula：
SitThe coal degree of self-sufficiency in-i area t periods；
PitThe coal production amount in-i area t periods；
CitThe consumption of coal in-area t periods.
SitIt is higher, show that the coal supply capacity in i areas is stronger, there is coal outflow tendency；Conversely, the coal in i areas is supplied
It is weaker to ability, there is coal inflow.
Further, coal flowing function is determined using liquidity ratio, liquidity ratio is coal resources output and input
The ratio of amount, computing formula is：
In formula：
RitThe coal liquidity ratio in-i area t periods；
OitThe coal output in-i area t periods；
IitThe coal input quantity in-i area t periods.
Liquidity ratio is bigger, i.e. Rit>1, represent that this area's coal resources output property is stronger, it is divided into supply ground；Flowing ratio
Rate is less, i.e. Rit<1, represent that the coal resources Introduced cases of this area are stronger, it is defined as demand ground；When liquidity ratio is approximately 1,
Represent that coal resources outflow tendency is suitable with tendency is flowed into, i.e., AC is stronger.
Step 3：Coal supply and demand pattern Optimized model builds
1st, optimization aim is chosen
Ability on each supply ground, between the demand on demand ground and supply and demand node known to cost of transportation under the premise of, coal
Charcoal supply and demand pattern optimization problem is exactly to solve how minimum cost such as to allocate and transport the coal of Reasonable Scale to demand from feed system
System, therefore by the coal amount of the alloting x between areaijUsed as decision variable, total cost of transportation minimum is used as optimization aim, table
Show as follows：
In formula：
Z-object function；
xij- supply ground j to demand ground i the coal amount of alloting, hundred million tons；
The quantity on m-demand ground, it is individual；
The quantity on n-supply ground, it is individual；
cij- supply ground j allots the unit cost of coal, the computing formula of Railway Coal shipping expense to demand ground i
For：Freight charges=be dealt into base price+(operation base price+railway construction fund) * freight mileages+freight and miscellaneous charges (such as landing hire, insurance).
2nd, constraints determines
Because the demand of different regions is certain with supply capacity, therefore the coal transferred amount on demand ground should be able to
Rationally meet needs, the coal on supply ground recalls total amount must not determine that supply-demand mode is constrained, table beyond the supply capacity upper limit with this
Show as follows：
In formula：
RiThe total demand of-demand ground i, hundred million tons；
SjThe supply capacity of-supply ground j, hundred million tons.
3rd, Optimized model builds
According to the above results, coal supply and demand pattern Optimized model is built as follows：
Step 4：Prioritization scheme determines
For model feature, problem is solved using MATLAB programmings, adjusted to different demands with determining each supply
The scale of fortune coal, forms supply and demand pattern.
Example explanation
1st, supply and demand function in region determines
According to the result of calculation of liquidity ratio index, it is determined that supply ground system mainly includes Shanxi, Inner Mongol, Shaanxi, new
Boundary, Guizhou coal resources lay in ground, totally 5, i.e. n=5；Coal demand ground system is included by Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, river
The first order system that Soviet Union, Guangdong, Fujian eastern coast area are constituted, and the Hubei by inland, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing
The second level system of composition, totally 17, i.e. m=17.The present situation for produced according to coal, disappearing, determines the coal supply and demand scale of each department
Such as following table.
The coal on each supply and demand ground supplies requirement (hundred million tons)
2nd, cost of transportation is calculated
According to the computing formula of railway transportation expense, determine transportation range and coal geological unit cost between each department such as
Following table.
Coal Transport distance and freight of the supply ground to demand ground
3rd, prioritization scheme determines
To sum up, Coal Transport general layout problem is allocated with being described as 5 supplies to 17 demands the Transportation Planning of the energy
Model, determines that the coal distribution scale between area is as shown in the table according to above-mentioned model and derivation algorithm.
Coal in China supply and demand pattern rationalizes allocative decision (hundred million tons)
As can be seen from the above table, the coal optimum of Chongqing of Sichuan two places is Shaanxi Province with calling in, and transferred amount is 0.27 hundred million tons,
Wherein Sichuan Province's insufficient section calls in 0.07 hundred million tons by Xinjiang.In addition to supply Chongqing of Sichuan two places, remaining main coal will be in Shaanxi Province
Province is answered to be Guangdong, Hubei, Fujian, Jiangxi.Wherein, 0.32 hundred million tons of province Hubei Province, 0.34 hundred million tons of Jiangxi Province along the Yangtze River,
On the premise of railway transportation capability deficiency, it is contemplated that using Chongqing as AC deposition, adjusted to two provinces using Yangtze River channel transfer part coal
Go out.
Present disclosure is not limited to cited by embodiment, and those of ordinary skill in the art are by reading description of the invention
And any equivalent conversion that technical solution of the present invention is taken, it is claim of the invention and is covered.
Claims (4)
1. coal supply and demand pattern optimization method, it is characterised in that：
Comprise the following steps：
Step one：Determine the coal dispensing situation of zones of different, i.e. the coal on the coal breach amount on demand ground and supply ground is full of
Surplus；
Step 2：The coal supply/demand of different regions different times is estimated using degree of self-sufficiency index, and judges coal resources
Liquidity preference；
Step 3：Its coal flowing function is divided using liquidity ratio index, further combined with coal resources in China flowing
Situation, is supply ground regional classification of the liquidity ratio more than 1, and the regional classification less than 1 is demand ground；
Step 4：On the basis of region supply and demand role defines, the optimization of coal supply and demand pattern with being described as n supply to m
The Transportation Planning problem of the demand ground supply of material, determines object function and constraints；
Step 5：Each parameter value is determined according to cost of railway traffic, and the coal supply and demand for determining optimization is solved with MATLAB
Scheme.
2. coal supply and demand pattern optimization method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 3, coal flowing function is determined using liquidity ratio, liquidity ratio is coal resources output and input quantity
Ratio, computing formula is：
In formula：
RitThe coal liquidity ratio in-i area t periods；
OitThe coal output in-i area t periods；
IitThe coal input quantity in-i area t periods.
3. coal supply and demand pattern optimization method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 4, object function is comprised the following steps with constraints determination：
Ability on each supply ground, between the demand on demand ground and supply and demand node known to cost of transportation under the premise of, coal is supplied
General layout optimization problem is needed to be exactly to solve how minimum cost such as to allocate and transport the coal of Reasonable Scale to demand system from feed system,
Therefore by the coal amount of the alloting x between areaijUsed as decision variable, total cost of transportation is minimum as optimization aim, represents such as
Under：
In formula：
Z-object function；
xijCoal the allot amounts of-supply ground j to demand ground i；
cij- supply ground j allots the unit cost of coal to demand ground i, and the computing formula of Railway Coal shipping expense is：
Freight charges=be dealt into base price+(operation base price+railway construction fund) * freight mileages+freight and miscellaneous charges.
Constraints includes two：(1) each supply ground amount of alloting sum more than demand i total demand；(2) supply ground j gives
The amount of the alloting sum on each demand ground is less than its supply capacity, is expressed as follows：
In formula：
RiThe total demand of-demand ground i, hundred million tons；
SjThe supply capacity of-supply ground j, hundred million tons.
4. coal supply and demand pattern optimization method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 5, the operating procedure that Optimized model builds is：
Build coal supply and demand pattern Optimized model as follows：
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112488524A (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2021-03-12 | 上海航天能源股份有限公司 | Gas multi-gas-source purchase guidance system and method |
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- 2016-11-18 CN CN201611016726.XA patent/CN106682761A/en active Pending
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| CN104732435A (en) * | 2015-04-03 | 2015-06-24 | 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 | Agricultural product supply and demand matching system and method |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112488524A (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2021-03-12 | 上海航天能源股份有限公司 | Gas multi-gas-source purchase guidance system and method |
| CN112488524B (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2024-04-16 | 上海航天能源股份有限公司 | Purchasing guidance system and method for multiple gas sources |
| CN112907069A (en) * | 2021-02-19 | 2021-06-04 | 山东矩阵软件工程股份有限公司 | Coal mine transport vehicle distribution method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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Application publication date: 20170517 |