CN112488524B - Purchasing guidance system and method for multiple gas sources - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application discloses a purchasing guidance system and method of multiple gas sources, wherein the system comprises a pre-purchasing assessment device, and specifically comprises the following steps: the demand acquisition module is used for acquiring the gas demand of each demand party and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract; the price acquisition module is used for acquiring the current price of each air source; the historical data analysis module is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source; and the purchase evaluation module is used for outputting a purchase guidance report through the purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each air source and the price trend reference curve of each air source based on the gas notch quantity. Preferably, the purchasing guidance system of the fuel gas multiple gas sources further comprises a post-purchasing analysis processing device, and purchasing simulation and cost analysis are carried out on purchasing data after each purchasing. According to the invention, economical and practical fuel gas purchasing guidance can be provided under the condition of guaranteeing fuel gas supply.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of fuel gas energy, in particular to a purchasing guidance system and method for multiple fuel gas sources.
Background
With the development of economy, the gas supply amount also has an increasing trend year by year, which provides new challenges for group gas supply guarantee. On one hand, the gas consumption stability of the whole province is ensured, the conditions of gas deficiency, uneven heat value and the like do not occur, and the gas consumption requirements of various user groups of the whole province are met. On the other hand, on the premise of guaranteeing air supply, how to improve the economic benefit of the group and ensure that the purchasing cost is more economical and practical.
At present, the group air sources are various and comprise various air sources such as pipeline air, LNG, biomass air and the like. Pipeline gas is divided into contract gas, online transaction and offline extra gas. The contract gas is signed in advance, and in the actual gas using process, the gas demand often exceeds the contract gas, the gas gap of the part often needs to be purchased, the purchased gas sources are various, the prices of the various gas sources are different, the price of each gas source is changed frequently, and the supply capacity is different. Therefore, the technical problem that how to ensure lower comprehensive gas purchasing cost is very difficult to solve in a settlement period on the premise of ensuring gas supply.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the application provides a purchasing guidance system and a purchasing guidance method for multiple gas sources, which are used for evaluating the optimal gas source combination through a purchasing evaluation model, generating a purchasing guidance report for group reference, and ensuring that the purchasing cost is more economical and practical under the condition that the gas meets the requirements of all molecular companies. Specifically, the technical scheme of the application is as follows:
In one aspect, the present application provides a system for procurement guidance for multiple gas sources; the device comprises a pre-purchase assessment device, wherein the pre-purchase assessment device specifically comprises: the demand acquisition module is used for acquiring the gas demand of each demand party and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract; the price acquisition module is used for acquiring the current price of each air source; the historical data analysis module is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source; and the purchase evaluation module is used for outputting a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each air source and the price trend reference curve of each air source based on the gas gap amount.
Preferably, the current price of each air source collected by the information collection module specifically comprises the starting price, the LNG price and the off-line extra air price of the transaction on the gas line; the purchase evaluation module specifically comprises: the price prediction sub-module is used for predicting LNG purchasing unit price and off-line additional gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the current price of each gas source which is currently collected; the transaction evaluation submodule is used for comparing the starting price of the online transaction acquired in real time with the value of the LNG purchasing unit price; and according to the comparison result, combining the gasification supply quantity of the LNG, and determining the purchasing mode of the gas notch quantity.
Preferably, the purchase evaluation module further comprises: the auction determination submodule is used for calculating the fuel gas demand urgent coefficients of all fuel gas demand parties and selecting the fuel gas demand party with the highest fuel gas demand urgent coefficient as an auction party; the calculation formula of the fuel gas demand urgent coefficient is as follows:
wherein: c: a fuel gas demand packing factor; g: gas notch amount; l: gasification supply of LNG.
Preferably, the transaction evaluation submodule is configured to further determine whether the gasification supply amount of the LNG meets the gas gap amount when the starting price of the online transaction is greater than or equal to the LNG procurement unit price, and if so, generate a preliminary guidance report for procurement of the LNG according to the gas gap amount; if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the fuel gas by adopting an online transaction mode according to the difference value of the fuel gas notch quantity and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG.
Preferably, the transaction evaluation submodule is further configured to further determine whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas gap amount when the starting price of the online transaction is less than the LNG purchase price and the auction price of the online transaction is middle-sized, and if yes, generate a preliminary guidance report for purchasing gas in an online transaction manner according to the gas gap amount; if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and purchasing the fuel gas in an offline transaction mode according to the difference value between the fuel gas gap amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction.
Preferably, the purchasing guidance system of the fuel gas multi-gas source further comprises: after the fuel gas purchasing of the online transaction is completed, the demand acquisition module is further used for calculating a difference value between the fuel gas gap amount and the actual transaction amount of the online transaction to generate an offline purchasing gap amount; and the transaction evaluation sub-module is further used for comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the off-line extra gas, selecting a gas source with lower unit price as a purchasing object of the off-line purchasing gap amount, and generating a second guiding report.
Preferably, the purchasing guidance system of the fuel gas multi-gas source further comprises: analysis processing device after purchase; comprising the following steps: the information acquisition module is used for acquiring fuel gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the fuel gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each air source and the purchasing unit price of each air source; the cost calculation module is used for calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the fuel gas purchasing information; the purchase simulation module is used for inputting the fuel gas purchase information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchase cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of different combination modes of each air source; and the guidance analysis module is used for comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
Preferably, the information acquisition module includes: the purchasing quantity obtaining sub-module is used for obtaining the total quantity of pipeline gas, online transaction quantity and LNG consumption purchased in a specified historical time period; the purchase price acquisition sub-module is used for acquiring off-line extra gas historical unit price, on-line transaction historical unit price and LNG historical unit price; the calculation operator module is used for subtracting the total amount of the pipeline gas from the total amount of the pipeline gas and the online transaction amount to generate the offline extra gas consumption; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the online transaction amount, the LNG total amount and the off-line additional gas total amount purchased in the preset time period; the cost calculation module is specifically used for calculating the cost of the air source consumption and the purchasing cost of the actual gap amount.
Preferably, the simulation cost analysis model specifically includes: the first simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with online transaction as a main part and offline extra gas as a supplement, and calculates first simulation purchasing cost; the second simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with online transaction as a main part and LNG as a supplement, and calculates second simulation purchasing cost; the third simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with LNG as a main material and off-line extra gas as a supplement, and calculates third simulation purchasing cost; a fourth simulation type, which adopts a purchasing mode of all online transactions to calculate a fourth simulation purchasing cost; and the fifth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all off-line extra gas is adopted, and the fifth simulation purchasing cost is calculated.
On the other hand, the application discloses a purchasing guidance method of multiple gas sources; the method specifically comprises an evaluation step before purchase and/or an analysis processing step after purchase; the pre-purchase evaluation step specifically comprises the following steps: collecting the gas demands of all the demand parties, and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demands and the gas supply contract; collecting the current price of each air source; acquiring purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data, and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source; based on the gas notch quantity, outputting a purchase guiding report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source;
the purchased post-analysis processing steps specifically comprise: acquiring fuel gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the fuel gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each air source and the purchasing unit price of each air source; according to the fuel gas purchasing information, calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period; inputting the fuel gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of different combination modes of each air source; and comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
The application at least comprises the following technical effects:
(1) According to the method, the optimal purchase channel combination is evaluated through the purchase evaluation model, and a purchase guidance report is generated for reference. Under the condition that the fuel gas can meet the requirements of all molecular companies, the purchasing cost can be more economical and practical.
(2) The method comprehensively considers various dimensions such as online transaction amount, price of each air source, LNG gasification capacity, urgency of each gas demand party and the like, and generates a purchase guidance report with guiding significance by comprehensively considering analysis and using a purchase evaluation model, so as to provide guidance and reference for subsequent gas purchase.
(3) According to the method, historical purchasing information of each air source is utilized, a price trend reference curve of each air source is generated, and the price trend curve of each air source is combined on the basis of the current purchasing price of each air source, so that the purchasing comprehensive unit price of each air source in the subsequent actual purchasing process is predicted, and the influence of price fluctuation of each air source on purchasing evaluation accuracy is avoided.
(4) In addition to evaluation before purchase, the method and the device for evaluating the economic benefit of the purchasing system further perform data analysis processing after each purchase, simulate the purchasing cost, acquire a purchasing analysis report through comparison of the simulated purchasing cost and the actual purchasing cost, analyze whether the purchasing is reasonable or not and optimize the economic benefit or not, and accordingly provide reference guidance for later purchasing.
(5) The simulation cost analysis model comprises five simulation types, so that the purchasing simulation cost of different air source combinations can be calculated, and then the purchasing simulation cost is compared with the actual purchasing cost, so that whether the actual purchasing cost is economical can be analyzed, the purchasing mode of which air source combination is adopted under the current condition is more cost-effective, the cost is lower, and references and guidance are provided for purchasing the fuel gas when the similar condition exists next time.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are needed in the description of the embodiments will be briefly described below, it being obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and that other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a fuel gas multi-gas source procurement instruction system according to an embodiment of the application;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a fuel gas multi-source procurement guidance system according to a third embodiment of the application;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a fuel gas multi-source procurement guidance system according to a fourth embodiment of the application;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart of a step of evaluating fuel gas before purchasing in a fifth embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating a process step of analysis after fuel gas purchasing in a fifth embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 6 is a diagram of an overall logic framework in accordance with a sixth embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of a pre-purchase evaluation flow in a sixth embodiment of the present application;
fig. 8 is a schematic diagram of a post-purchase analysis processing flow in a sixth embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
In the following description, for purposes of explanation and not limitation, specific details are set forth, such as particular system configurations, techniques, etc. in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present application. However, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that the present application may be practiced in other embodiments that depart from these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted so as not to obscure the description of the present application with unnecessary detail.
It should be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising," when used in this specification and the appended claims, specify the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
For simplicity of the drawing, only the parts relevant to the present application are schematically shown in each drawing, and they do not represent the actual structure thereof as a product. Additionally, in order to facilitate a concise understanding of the drawings, components having the same structure or function in some of the drawings are depicted schematically only one of them, or only one of them is labeled. Herein, "a" means not only "only this one" but also "more than one" case.
It should be further understood that the term "and/or" as used in this specification and the appended claims refers to any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items, and includes such combinations.
In addition, in the description of the present application, the terms "first," "second," and the like are used merely to distinguish between descriptions and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following description will explain specific embodiments of the present application with reference to the accompanying drawings. It is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only examples of the present application, and that other drawings and other embodiments may be obtained from these drawings by those skilled in the art without undue effort.
[ embodiment one ]
The embodiment discloses a purchasing guidance system for multiple gas sources; as shown in fig. 1, the present embodiment includes a pre-purchase evaluation apparatus 1000, and the pre-purchase evaluation apparatus 1000 specifically includes:
the demand acquisition module 100 is configured to acquire a gas demand of each demand party, and calculate a gas gap amount according to the gas demand and a gas supply contract;
the price acquisition module 200 is used for acquiring the current price of each air source;
the historical data analysis module 300 is used for obtaining the purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source;
the purchase evaluation module 400 is configured to output a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each air source and the price trend reference curve of each air source based on the gas gap amount.
Generally, for example, after the monthly requirements of each molecular company are collected, the gas gap amount of the month can be calculated according to the gas month supply contract with the upstream enterprise (such as middle petroleum or middle petrochemical industry), that is to say, the gas amount required to be purchased in the month. The supply channels of the fuel gas are various, and in general, online transactions and offline transactions are generally performed by auction, and an upstream enterprise emits a part of fuel gas per month to perform auction, so that the price is high. The maximum transaction amount of the online transaction per month is limited and can be checked, if the gas gap amount is large, the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction cannot be met, and therefore, the gas needs to be purchased through multiple channels. Off-line transactions are mainly extra gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) purchases off-line. The gas purchase prices of the different channels are different, and generally the price of the online transaction is generally lower than that of the offline transaction, which is not absolute, because the online transaction is completed through an auction, and the price fluctuation is relatively large. Even for off-line transactions, the price is not necessarily fixed even for fuel gas purchased in the same channel, and the price fluctuates at different times. Therefore, although the gas prices of the current channels can be acquired at present, the prices may change when the actual purchase is waited, so that a price trend reference curve made of historical purchase data is also needed to be used as a reference, and the optimal purchase channel combination is evaluated through a purchase evaluation model to generate a purchase guidance report for reference. Under the condition that the fuel gas can meet the requirements of all molecular companies, the purchasing cost can be more economical and practical.
[ example two ]
Based on the first embodiment, the current price of each air source collected by the information collection module specifically includes a starting price, an LNG price and an off-line extra air price of the transaction on the gas line; as shown in fig. 3, the purchase evaluation module specifically includes:
the price prediction sub-module 410 is configured to predict an LNG purchase price and an off-line additional gas purchase price when purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the current price of each gas source currently collected;
a transaction evaluation submodule 420 for comparing the online transaction starting price acquired in real time with the LNG purchasing price; and according to the comparison result, combining the gasification supply quantity of the LNG, and determining the purchasing mode of the gas notch quantity.
Because the purchase price of each air source is not constant, the current purchase price does not represent the purchase price in the subsequent actual purchase, the generated price trend reference curve of each air source is generated according to the historical purchase information of each air source, and then a prediction can be made for the purchase price in the subsequent actual purchase according to the current purchase price of each air source, so that the comprehensive purchase unit price is predicted, and the influence of price fluctuation on the purchase evaluation result is reduced.
Specifically, the workflow of the transaction evaluation sub-module is as follows:
s10, comparing whether the starting price of the online transaction is smaller than the LNG purchasing price, if so, entering a step S20, otherwise, entering a step S30;
s20, monitoring the auction price of the online transaction in real time, and if the auction price of the online transaction is higher than the LNG purchasing unit price, entering step S30; if the auction price of the online transaction is lower than the LNG procurement unit price, and if the auction price is middle, step S40 is entered;
s30, judging whether the gasification supply quantity of the LNG meets the gas notch quantity, if so, entering a step S31, otherwise, entering a step S32;
s31, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas notch quantity;
s32, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gasification supply quantity of the LNG, and purchasing the fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the difference value of the fuel gas notch quantity and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG.
S40, judging whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas notch amount, if so, entering a step S41, otherwise, entering a step S42;
s41, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the fuel gas notch quantity;
S42, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and purchasing fuel gas in an offline transaction mode according to the difference value between the fuel gas notch amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction.
The LNG vaporization supply amount is LNG vaporization capacity. LNG plants are used to convert liquefied natural gas into gaseous natural gas, the gasification capacity of which is the maximum amount of fuel gas (gasification supply) that can be provided in a cycle. Because of the limited ability to gasify LNG, even if the unit price of LNG is low, LNG cannot be purchased entirely so that the gas supply by each gas demand cannot be satisfied.
Further, if the gas gap amount is larger, even if it is determined that online transaction is preferentially adopted for gas purchase, and if online transaction cannot meet the purchase of the gas gap amount, after the gas purchase of the online transaction is completed, the demand acquisition module is further configured to calculate a difference between the gas gap amount and an actual transaction amount of the online transaction, so as to generate an offline purchase gap amount; the part of the offline purchasing gap amount is needed to be purchased in an offline transaction mode, the general offline transaction comprises the purchasing of offline extra gas and LNG, and for the offline purchasing gap amount, the purchasing of which gas source is generally selected according to the current offline price. Specifically, after comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the off-line additional gas, the transaction evaluation sub-module selects a gas source with a lower unit price as a purchasing object of the off-line purchasing gap amount, and generates a second guiding report.
Preferably, regarding online transactions, since the amount of online transactions is generally limited and the demand urgency of fuel gas is different for each of the consumers, it is generally preferred to bid for consumers with higher urgency (such as the molecular company with higher urgency below). That is, the purchase assessment module 400 further includes: the auction determining sub-module 430 is configured to calculate a fuel gas demand urgent factor of each fuel gas demand party, and select a fuel gas demand party with the highest fuel gas demand urgent factor as an auction party. Regarding the fuel gas demand urgent factor, the fuel gas demand urgent factor is used to measure the urgent degree of each fuel gas demand party to the fuel gas demand, and the fuel gas demand urgent factor can be implemented by the following calculation formula:
wherein:
c: a fuel gas demand packing factor;
g: gas notch amount;
l: gasification supply of LNG.
[ example III ]
As shown in fig. 2, the system for guiding the purchase of multiple gas sources according to the present embodiment further includes, based on the first or second embodiment, the following steps:
post-purchase analysis processing means 2000; comprising the following steps:
the information acquisition module 500 is used for acquiring fuel gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the fuel gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each air source and the purchasing unit price of each air source;
The cost calculation module 600 is configured to calculate an actual purchase cost in the specified historical time period according to the gas purchase information;
the purchase simulation module 700 is configured to input the fuel gas purchase information into a simulation cost analysis model, and obtain a simulation purchase cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of different combination modes of each air source;
the guidance analysis module 800 is configured to compare the simulated purchase cost with the actual purchase cost, and generate a purchase analysis report according to the comparison result.
In addition to the evaluation device before purchase, the gas multi-gas-source purchase guidance system of the embodiment analyzes the gas by the post-purchase analysis processing device after each purchase to obtain a purchase analysis report, analyzes whether the purchase is reasonable or not and whether the economic benefit is optimal or not, and accordingly makes reference guidance for the subsequent purchase.
[ example IV ]
In this embodiment, as shown in fig. 3, based on the third embodiment, the information collecting module 500 includes:
the purchase amount obtaining sub-module 510 is configured to obtain a total amount of pipeline gas, an online transaction amount, and an LNG usage amount purchased in a specified historical time period;
such as total pipeline gas purchased over the past month, online transaction volume, and LNG usage; some of the total pipeline gas is purchased through previous gas supply contracts, other is purchased through online transactions, and other is possible to be purchased off-line. LNG is liquefied petroleum gas, and the LNG consumption is not in the total pipeline gas. Because the gas supply contract is usually only an estimated monthly demand supply contract, which is generally smaller than the actual monthly demand, the gas gap amount of the gap is generally purchased through online transaction or offline transaction.
A purchase price acquisition sub-module 520 for acquiring an offline extra gas history unit price, an online transaction history unit price, and an LNG history unit price;
specifically, from the statistical historical purchase data, the purchase amount and purchase price of the fuel gas purchased through each channel in the specified historical time period (such as the last month or the last year) can be obtained.
The usage amount calculation module 530 is configured to subtract the total amount of pipeline gas from the contract amount and the online transaction amount to generate an offline extra gas usage amount; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the online transaction amount, the LNG total amount and the off-line additional gas total amount purchased in the preset time period;
specifically, the on-line transaction amount is the actual transaction amount of the on-line transaction, and because the total pipeline gas amount is composed of the contract amount, the on-line transaction amount and the off-line extra gas amount, the purchased off-line extra gas amount can be calculated after the total pipeline gas amount, the on-line transaction amount and the contract amount are collected. Further, the actual gap amount can be calculated.
The cost calculation module 600 is specifically configured to calculate the cost of each air source usage and the purchase cost of the actual gap amount.
Specifically, the actual gap amount is the actual demand amount minus the contract amount, that is, the total amount purchased through online transaction and offline transaction modes in each month except for the month contract planned in the early year.
Preferably, the simulation cost analysis model specifically includes:
the first simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with online transaction as a main part and offline extra gas as a supplement, and calculates first simulation purchasing cost; this type of transaction is preferred over on-line transactions, with the off-line extra gas being used for the insufficient portion of the on-line transaction. The amount of online transactions is the amount of actual auction in the current month or year. The off-line extra gas is the gap amount (actual gap amount) minus the on-line transaction amount.
And the second simulation type adopts a purchasing mode which mainly adopts online transaction and supplements LNG, and calculates the second simulation purchasing cost. This type of on-line transaction is preferred, with the off-line transaction being complemented by the insufficient portion of the on-line transaction purchasing LNG. The amount of online transactions is the amount of actual auction in the current month or year. The LNG procurement is the gap amount minus the online transaction amount.
The third simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with LNG as a main material and off-line extra gas as a supplement, and calculates third simulation purchasing cost; LNG is preferentially used, while the off-line extra gas is used for the shortfall. If the gap amount is greater than or equal to the LNG vaporization capacity, the amount of LNG is equal to the LNG vaporization capacity, and the off-line extra gas is equal to the gap amount minus the LNG vaporization capacity; if the gap amount is less than the LNG vaporization capacity, the LNG usage amount is equal to the gap amount and the off-line extra gas is equal to zero.
A fourth simulation type, which adopts a purchasing mode of all online transactions to calculate a fourth simulation purchasing cost; namely, all the gap amounts adopt online transaction, and the maximum transaction amount of online transaction at the moment is larger than or equal to the gap amount, so that all the fuel gas with the gap amount is purchased according to the online transaction mode to calculate the cost at the moment.
And the fifth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all off-line extra gas is adopted, and the fifth simulation purchasing cost is calculated. The gap amount was all used with off-line extra gas, which was equal to the gap amount.
Through the five simulation types, the purchasing simulation cost of different air source combinations can be calculated, and then the purchasing simulation cost is compared with the actual purchasing cost, so that whether the actual purchasing cost is economical or not can be analyzed, the purchasing mode of which air source combination is adopted under the current condition is more cost-effective, the cost is lower, and references and guidance are provided for purchasing the fuel gas when the similar conditions exist next time.
[ example five ]
The embodiment discloses a purchasing guidance method for multiple gas sources; the method specifically comprises an evaluation step before purchase and/or an analysis processing step after purchase; wherein,
the pre-purchase evaluation step is shown in fig. 4, and specifically includes:
S101, collecting the gas demands of all demand parties, and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demands and the gas supply contract;
s102, collecting the current price of each air source;
s103, acquiring purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data, and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source;
s104, outputting a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each air source and the price trend reference curve of each air source based on the gas gap amount;
the post-purchase analysis processing steps, as shown in fig. 5, specifically include:
s201, acquiring fuel gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the fuel gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each air source and the purchasing unit price of each air source;
s202, calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the fuel gas purchasing information;
s203, inputting the fuel gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of different combination modes of each air source;
s204, comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
The embodiment can evaluate and analyze the purchase through a purchase evaluation model to obtain a purchase guiding report; and the purchasing information after each purchasing can be analyzed to obtain a purchasing analysis report, and whether the purchasing is reasonable or not and whether the economic benefit is optimal or not are analyzed, so that reference guidance is provided for the later purchasing.
Preferably, the purchasing channels of the air sources comprise online transaction, online extra air purchasing and LNG purchasing; the step S104 specifically includes:
s1041, predicting LNG purchasing unit price and off-line extra gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the current price of each gas source which is currently collected;
s1042, comparing whether the starting price of the online transaction is smaller than the LNG purchasing price, if yes, entering step S1043, otherwise entering step S1044;
s1043, monitoring the auction price of the online transaction in real time, and if the auction price of the online transaction is higher than the LNG purchasing unit price, entering step S1044; if the auction price of the online transaction is lower than the LNG procurement unit price, and if the auction price is middle, step S1047 is entered;
s1044, judging whether the gasification supply quantity of the LNG meets the gas notch quantity, if so, entering a step S1045, otherwise, entering a step S1046;
S1045, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas notch quantity;
s1046, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gasification supply quantity of the LNG, and purchasing the fuel gas by adopting an online transaction mode according to the difference value of the fuel gas notch quantity and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG.
S1047, judging whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas notch amount, if so, entering a step S1048, otherwise, entering a step S1049;
s1048, generating a preliminary guidance report of purchasing fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the fuel gas notch quantity;
s1049, generating a preliminary guidance report of purchasing fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and purchasing fuel gas in an offline transaction mode according to the difference value between the fuel gas gap amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction.
Further, if the gas gap amount is larger, even if it is determined that the online transaction is preferentially adopted for gas purchasing, and if the online transaction cannot meet the purchasing of the gas gap amount, after the online transaction is completed, the demand acquisition module is further configured to calculate a difference between the gas gap amount and an actual transaction amount of the online transaction, generate an offline purchasing gap amount, and then compare the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the offline additional gas, and then select a gas source with a lower unit price as a purchasing object of the offline purchasing gap amount.
Regarding online transactions, since the amount of online transactions is generally limited and the demand urgency for fuel gas is different for each of the demand parties, it is generally preferred to bid for a higher-urgency demand party (such as the molecular company with higher urgency below). That is, the urgency of each gas demand side is measured by quantitative calculation. In this embodiment, the urgency can be measured by the gas demand urgency coefficient, and the higher the gas demand urgency coefficient is, the higher the urgency is, and generally, the gas demand party with the highest gas demand urgency coefficient is preferentially selected as the auction party. Regarding the fuel gas demand packing factor, the following calculation formula can be adopted:
wherein:
c: a fuel gas demand packing factor;
g: gas notch amount;
l: gasification supply of LNG.
In the post-purchase analysis processing step, step S201 specifically includes:
s2011, acquiring the total amount of pipeline gas purchased, the online transaction amount and the LNG consumption in a specified historical time period;
s2012, acquiring an offline extra gas history unit price, an online transaction history unit price, and an LNG history unit price;
s2013, subtracting the total amount of the pipeline gas from the sum amount and the online transaction amount to generate an offline extra gas amount; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the online transaction amount, the LNG total amount and the off-line additional gas total amount purchased in the preset time period;
The step S202 specifically includes:
s2021, calculating the cost of each air source dosage and the purchasing cost of the actual gap quantity.
In the post-purchase analysis processing step, the adopted simulation cost analysis model comprises five simulation types, specifically:
the first simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with online transaction as a main part and offline extra gas as a supplement, and calculates first simulation purchasing cost; this type of transaction is preferred over on-line transactions, with the off-line extra gas being used for the insufficient portion of the on-line transaction. The online transaction amount is the amount of actual auction in the current month or year. The off-line extra gas is the gap amount (actual gap amount) minus the on-line transaction amount.
And the second simulation type adopts a purchasing mode which mainly adopts online transaction and supplements LNG, and calculates the second simulation purchasing cost. This type of on-line transaction is preferred, with the off-line transaction being complemented by the insufficient portion of the on-line transaction purchasing LNG. The amount of online transactions is the amount of actual auction in the current month or year. The LNG procurement is the gap amount minus the online transaction amount.
The third simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with LNG as a main material and off-line extra gas as a supplement, and calculates third simulation purchasing cost; LNG is preferentially used, while the off-line extra gas is used for the shortfall. If the gap amount is greater than or equal to the LNG vaporization capacity, the amount of LNG is equal to the LNG vaporization capacity, and the off-line extra gas is equal to the gap amount minus the LNG vaporization capacity; if the gap amount is less than the LNG vaporization capacity, the LNG usage amount is equal to the gap amount and the off-line extra gas is equal to zero.
A fourth simulation type, which adopts a purchasing mode of all online transactions to calculate a fourth simulation purchasing cost; namely, all the gap amounts adopt online transaction, and the maximum transaction amount of online transaction at the moment is larger than or equal to the gap amount, so that all the fuel gas with the gap amount is purchased according to the online transaction mode to calculate the cost at the moment.
And the fifth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all off-line extra gas is adopted, and the fifth simulation purchasing cost is calculated. The gap amount was all used with off-line extra gas, which was equal to the gap amount.
Through the five simulation types, the purchasing simulation cost of different air source combinations can be calculated, and then the purchasing simulation cost is compared with the actual purchasing cost, so that whether the actual purchasing cost is economical or not can be analyzed, the purchasing mode of which air source combination is adopted under the current condition is more cost-effective, the cost is lower, and references and guidance are provided for purchasing the fuel gas when the similar conditions exist next time.
[ example six ]
This embodiment is divided into two parts, as shown in FIG. 6, which are pre-purchase assessment and post-purchase analysis processes, respectively. The evaluation before purchasing is to comprehensively evaluate the cost of each air source in the next month, and combine the demand and the gap of each molecular company to formulate a purchasing strategy and implement purchasing. The post-purchase analysis processing is to analyze the cost of the completed purchase, compare and analyze the actual cost with each combination of the hypothesized cost, and then provide data support for the subsequent pre-purchase evaluation.
After each month collects the month requirements of each molecular company; forming a month gap according to the month demand and the month contract; the natural gas company acquires the price of the LNG according to the gap amount, and acquires the comprehensive unit price of the LNG; in addition, online transaction information including gas amount and unit price is acquired; an auction strategy is formulated according to the LNG price and the online transaction price; according to the actual air supply requirement, air purchasing and air supply are carried out; after the monthly or annual air source cost is formed, simulating different air source combinations according to the air source price and the air supply amount, comparing the actual purchasing cost with the simulated cost to form the evaluation analysis of the monthly or annual air purchasing cost, evaluating the purchasing economic benefit of the month or the annual and providing guidance for later purchasing; meanwhile, price trend analysis of each air source is formed, and auction strategies are formulated in an auxiliary mode.
Evaluation before purchase:
the evaluation before purchase is mainly to evaluate the purchase cost of three air sources of online transaction, off-line extra air and LNG, so as to formulate the purchase strategy of each air source. For these three sources, the cost ratio of the online transaction and the offline additional gas is relatively fixed, the offline additional gas is higher than the online transaction, and the multiples thereof are also relatively fixed. Therefore, the cost comparison of the three air sources is converted into two steps, as shown in fig. 7, the first step is the comparison of online transaction and LNG, a gap is formed according to the monthly demand and the contract of each molecular company, a preliminary transaction strategy is formulated according to the starting price and the unit price of LNG before online transaction based on the gap, and the transaction strategy is dynamically adjusted according to the auction price trend in online transaction; and the second step is to compare the offline extra gas with the LNG, form a new gap after the online transaction is finished, and make a transaction strategy by comparing the unit price of the LNG with the unit price of the offline extra gas.
The online transaction is a bidding process, in which bidding auction is conducted by each gas company in a fixed time period, and the final transaction price can be obtained only after the transaction. Therefore, the step is also divided into two processes, wherein the first process is to make a preliminary transaction strategy by comparing the online transaction starting price (including the tube fee) with the LNG unit price before online transaction; the second process is in the transaction, and the strategy is dynamically adjusted according to the auction price trend. Specifically, three cases are:
(1) The price of the clap < the unit price of LNG, in which case the cost of using the online transaction is lower than the cost of using LNG, so online transactions are preferred. But it is impossible to purchase online transactions at the price of the auction, so during the auction, the transaction strategy is dynamically adjusted according to the current actual price trend, and LNG is preferentially used when the price of the auction is already higher than the price of LNG. In this case, attention is paid to the LNG vaporization capacity of each molecular company, and an insufficient vaporization capacity (i.e., a difference between the gap amount and the LNG vaporization capacity) is required to be subjected to online transactions.
(2) The price of the LNG is greater than the unit price of the LNG, in which case the LNG is used at a lower cost than the online transaction, so that LNG is preferentially used and the LNG vaporization capacity is not sufficient to perform the online transaction.
(3) Clapping = LNG unit price this strategy is the same as the second case since online transactions are not possible at clapping prices.
Attention is paid to the auction price and the unit price of LNG, and attention is paid to the urgency of each molecular company, and molecular companies with high urgency are prioritized to auction because the online transaction limits the total amount and the auction is more intense. The urgency level is determined by the gap amount and the gasification capability of LNG, and is defined as an urgency coefficient, and the calculation formula is as follows, and the larger the calculated value is, the more urgency is.
Coefficient of stress 1
C: coefficient of urgency
G: notch amount
L: LNG vaporization capacity
After the on-line transaction is completed, a new gap amount is formed, and the gas source for this gap amount includes LNG and off-line additional gas. At this time, the unit price of the extra gas and the unit price of the LNG are determined, and the purchasing strategy is formulated by comparing the unit price of the two gas sources and combining the gap amount and the LNG gasification capacity.
Analysis and treatment after purchase:
the post-purchase analysis process is to calculate the completed monthly or annual purchase cost, and the calculated object comprises a group and each molecular company. Based on the actual cost, the cost of different combination modes of each air source is simulated, compared with the actual cost, and the economic benefit of the actual air source combination is estimated and analyzed. The analysis processing flow after purchasing is shown in fig. 8, firstly, the total pipeline gas, the total online transaction amount and the total LNG amount of each molecular company are obtained, the total online transaction amount is subtracted from the pipeline gas, and then the online transaction amount is subtracted to generate off-line extra gas; then acquiring off-line extra gas unit price, on-line transaction unit price and LNG unit price; generating the cost of the group and the air source consumption and gap amount of each molecular company; comparing the cost with the five simulation costs of the type A, B, C, D, E, and performing evaluation analysis after purchasing; and finally, comparing the actual cost with each simulation cost, and guiding the purchasing in the next period.
The simulation types are divided into five in total:
type A
On-line transactions are preferred, and off-line extra gas is used for the insufficient part of the on-line transactions. The amount of online transactions is the actual amount in the month or year, consistent with the amount in the cost accounting. The off-line extra gas is the gap amount minus the on-line transaction amount. The unit price of the online transaction and the unit price of the offline additional gas are consistent with the unit price in the same type of assessment cost accounting.
Type B
The online transaction is preferentially used, and the amount of the online transaction, namely the actual amount, is consistent with the amount in cost accounting; LNG is preferably used for the rest of the gap, and each company has LNG gasification capability, and if the gasification capability of the rest is insufficient, off-line extra gas is used. The unit price of each gas source is consistent with the unit price in cost accounting.
Type C
LNG is preferentially used, while the off-line extra gas is used for the shortfall. If the gap amount is greater than or equal to the LNG vaporization capacity, the amount of LNG is equal to the LNG vaporization capacity, and the off-line extra gas is equal to the gap amount minus the LNG vaporization capacity; if the gap amount is less than the LNG vaporization capacity, the LNG usage amount is equal to the gap amount and the off-line extra gas is equal to zero. Both the unit price of LNG and the unit price of off-line extra gas are consistent with the unit price in cost accounting.
Type D
The gap amount is all used for online transaction, and the online transaction amount is equal to the gap amount. The unit price of the online transaction remains the same as the unit price in the cost accounting.
Type E
The gap amount is all the extra gas off-line, and the amount is equal to the gap amount, and the unit price is equal to the unit price in cost accounting.
While preferred embodiments of the present application have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art once they learn of the basic inventive concepts. It is therefore intended that the following claims be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all such alterations and modifications as fall within the scope of the application.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made in the present application without departing from the spirit or scope of the application. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the claims and the equivalents thereof, the present application is intended to cover such modifications and variations.
Claims (2)
1. A fuel gas multi-source procurement guidance system comprising:
a pre-purchase assessment device comprising:
the demand acquisition module is used for acquiring the gas demand of each demand party and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract;
The price acquisition module is used for acquiring the current price of each air source;
the historical data analysis module is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source;
the purchase evaluation module is used for outputting a purchase instruction report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each air source and the price trend reference curve of each air source based on the gas gap amount;
the current price of each air source collected by the price collection module specifically comprises the starting price of transaction on the gas line, the LNG price and the off-line extra gas price;
the purchase evaluation module specifically comprises:
the price prediction sub-module is used for predicting LNG purchasing unit price and off-line additional gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the current price of each gas source which is currently collected;
the transaction evaluation submodule is used for comparing the starting price of the online transaction acquired in real time with the purchasing price of the LNG, and determining the purchasing mode of the gas gap quantity according to the comparison result and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG;
the purchase assessment module further includes:
the auction determination submodule is used for calculating the fuel gas demand urgent coefficients of all fuel gas demand parties and selecting the fuel gas demand party with the highest fuel gas demand urgent coefficient as an auction party;
The calculation formula of the fuel gas demand urgent coefficient is as follows:
；
wherein: c: a fuel gas demand packing factor; g: gas notch amount; l: gasification supply of LNG;
the transaction evaluation submodule is used for further judging whether the gasification supply quantity of the LNG meets the gas notch quantity or not when the starting price of the online transaction is larger than or equal to the LNG purchasing unit price, and if so, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas notch quantity; if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the difference value of the fuel gas notch quantity and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG;
the transaction evaluation submodule is further used for further judging whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas gap amount or not when the starting price of the online transaction is smaller than the LNG purchasing unit price and the auction price of the online transaction is lower than the LNG purchasing unit price and the auction price is middle, and if so, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing gas in an online transaction mode according to the gas gap amount; if not, generating a preliminary instruction report for purchasing the fuel gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and purchasing the fuel gas in an offline transaction mode according to the difference value between the fuel gas notch amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction;
After the fuel gas purchasing of the online transaction is completed, the demand acquisition module is further used for calculating a difference value between the fuel gas gap amount and the actual transaction amount of the online transaction to generate an offline purchasing gap amount;
the transaction evaluation sub-module is further used for comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the off-line extra gas, selecting a gas source with lower unit price as a purchasing object of the off-line purchasing gap amount, and generating a second guiding report;
the purchase instruction system further includes: a post-purchase analysis processing apparatus comprising:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring fuel gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the fuel gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each air source and the purchasing unit price of each air source;
the cost calculation module is used for calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the fuel gas purchasing information;
the purchase simulation module is used for inputting the fuel gas purchase information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchase cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of different combination modes of each air source;
the guidance analysis module is used for comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost and generating a purchasing analysis report according to a comparison result;
The information acquisition module comprises:
the purchasing quantity obtaining sub-module is used for obtaining the total quantity of pipeline gas, online transaction quantity and LNG consumption purchased in a specified historical time period;
the purchase price acquisition sub-module is used for acquiring off-line extra gas historical unit price, on-line transaction historical unit price and LNG historical unit price;
the calculation operator module is used for subtracting the total amount of the pipeline gas from the total amount of the pipeline gas and the online transaction amount to generate the offline extra gas consumption; calculating the actual gap amount in a preset time period; the actual gap amount is the online transaction amount, the LNG total amount and the off-line additional gas total amount purchased in the preset time period;
the cost calculation module is specifically used for calculating the cost of the consumption of each air source and the purchasing cost of the actual gap quantity;
the simulation cost analysis model specifically comprises:
the first simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with online transaction as a main part and offline extra gas as a supplement, and calculates first simulation purchasing cost;
the second simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with online transaction as a main part and LNG as a supplement, and calculates second simulation purchasing cost;
the third simulation type adopts a purchasing mode with LNG as a main material and off-line extra gas as a supplement, and calculates third simulation purchasing cost;
A fourth simulation type, which adopts a purchasing mode of all online transactions to calculate a fourth simulation purchasing cost;
and the fifth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all off-line extra gas is adopted, and the fifth simulation purchasing cost is calculated.
2. A purchase guidance method based on the multiple gas source purchase guidance system of claim 1, comprising: an evaluation step before purchase and/or an analysis processing step after purchase; wherein,
the pre-purchase evaluation step specifically comprises the following steps:
collecting the gas demands of all the demand parties, and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demands and the gas supply contract;
collecting the current price of each air source;
acquiring purchase unit price of each air source in the historical purchase data, and generating a price trend reference curve of each air source;
based on the gas notch quantity, outputting a purchase guiding report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source;
the purchased post-analysis processing steps specifically comprise:
acquiring fuel gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the fuel gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each air source and the purchasing unit price of each air source;
according to the fuel gas purchasing information, calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period;
Inputting the fuel gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of different combination modes of each air source;
and comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generating a purchasing analysis report according to a comparison result.
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| CN110009129A (en) * | 2019-01-30 | 2019-07-12 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of energy market transaction system |
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| CN110009129A (en) * | 2019-01-30 | 2019-07-12 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of energy market transaction system |
| CN111563774A (en) * | 2020-05-08 | 2020-08-21 | 上海腾暨物联网科技有限公司 | Method and system for constructing coal price index prediction and supply-demand relation index |
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