CN107730027A - A kind of load forecasting method and device based on region building property - Google Patents
A kind of load forecasting method and device based on region building property Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property, including：Subregion is carried out to target area；Each subregion power planning prediction index is obtained, power planning prediction index includes type, all kinds of construction areas, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and the load simultaneity factor of building；According to power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion；According to the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area is determined.The present invention relates to technical field of power systems, load forecasting method and device based on region building property, target area is subjected to subregion, according to the type of building, all kinds of construction areas, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor, calculate subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area is determined further according to subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, compared with prior art, the load prediction precision to target area is higher.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of power systems, more particularly to a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property
And device.
Background technology
Plot ratio：The ratio of overall floorage and the total land area of project in the range of project land used.
Simultaneity factor is exactly the absolute maximum load sum that power system synthesis maximum load respectively forms unit with power system
Ratio.
Load Prediction In Power Systems are the history numbers according to electric load, economy, society, meteorology etc., explore electric load
Influence of the historical data changing rule to future load, the inner link sought between electric load and various correlative factors, from
And the prediction of the electric load progress science to future.
At present, regional planning electric load is determined using load density method mostly.Load density method is divided into region land used
Inhabitation, communal facility, industry, storage, road traffic etc. are different classes of, according to the unit area electric strength of these classification lands used
(W/m2) be predicted.In the prior art, according to reallocation of land function division, the probability for using different land use type is calculated,
And by the probability of every kind of land-use style be added after the product of the load density of land-use style, obtain planning function subregion load
Density, and the load density of planning function subregion is multiplied with the land area of planning function subregion, to obtain planning function point
The load prediction results in area, and the probability of different land-use styles is variable, the load density of each land-use style be also it is variable, both
Multiplication may cause larger error.
The content of the invention
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of high-precision based on region building property
Load forecasting method.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is：A kind of load forecasting method based on region building property, including：
Subregion is carried out to target area；
Obtain each subregion power planning prediction index, the power planning prediction index includes the type of building, all kinds of built
Build area, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor；
According to power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion；
According to the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area is determined.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the distant view saturation load forecasting value for determining each subregion, it is specially：
According to the soil land-use style planning of subregion department offer, it is determined that the type of building and every class construction area in each subregion；
Obtain per class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors；
According to the type built in each subregion, per class construction area, it is per class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of
Building load simultaneity factor, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion：
Wherein, PkK-th of partition distant view saturation load forecasting value is represented, Di represents that k-th of class of subregion i-th is for building
Electric load intensity index, Si represent k-th of subregion the i-th class construction area, and η represents all kinds of building loads of k-th of subregion simultaneously
Rate.
As the further improvement of such scheme, each subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value is overlapped, obtained
The distant view saturation load forecasting value total to target area.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the land area of the target area is obtained, according to the target area
Total distant view saturation load forecasting value and the land area of the target area, obtain the load density of target area.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the building electricity consumption load intensity index is according to construction scope and default energy
Consumption index is preset.
A kind of load prediction device based on region building property, including：
Zoning unit, for carrying out subregion to target area；
Memory cell, for obtaining each subregion power planning prediction index, the power planning prediction index includes building
Type, all kinds of construction areas, default all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor；
Determining unit, for according to power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting of each subregion
Value, and according to the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, determine the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the area's predicted load for determining each subregion, it is specially：It is described true
Order member is used for the soil land-use style planning according to the offer of subregion department, it is determined that the type of building and every class in each subregion
Construction area；
The memory cell is used to obtain the categorical data of building and the every class construction area of storage in each subregion, per class
Building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors；
The determining unit is additionally operable to according to the type built in each subregion, every class construction area, per class building electricity consumption
Load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion：
Wherein, PkK-th of subregion distant view saturation prediction load is represented, Di represents k-th of subregion the i-th class building electricity consumption load
Intensity index, Si represent k-th of subregion the i-th class construction area, and η represents all kinds of building load simultaneity factors of k-th of subregion.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the determining unit is used for each subregion distant view saturation loading is pre-
Measured value is overlapped, and obtains the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the memory cell is used for the land area for obtaining the target area,
According to the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in the target area and the land area of the target area, target area is obtained
Load density.
As the further improvement of such scheme, the memory cell is used for pre- according to construction scope and default energy consumption index
If building electricity consumption load intensity index.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
It is a kind of based on region building property load forecasting method, target area is subjected to subregion, according to the type of building,
All kinds of construction areas, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor, calculate subregion distant view saturation load forecasting
Value, total distant view saturation load forecasting value of target area is determined further according to subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, with prior art
Compare, the load prediction precision to target area is higher.
It is a kind of based on region building property load prediction device, target area is subjected to subregion, according to the type of building,
All kinds of construction areas, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor, calculate subregion distant view saturation load forecasting
Value, determines the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area, with prior art further according to subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value
Compare, the load prediction precision to target area is higher.
Brief description of the drawings
The embodiment of the present invention is described further below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings：
Fig. 1 is a kind of load forecasting method flow chart based on region building property of the present invention.
Embodiment
It should be noted that in the case where not conflicting, the feature in embodiment and embodiment in the application can phase
Mutually combination.
Fig. 1 is a kind of load forecasting method flow chart based on region building property of the present invention, as shown in figure 1, a kind of base
In the load forecasting method of region building property, including：
Subregion is carried out to target area；
Each subregion power planning prediction index is obtained, wherein, power planning prediction index includes the type of building, all kinds of built
Build area, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor；
According to power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion；
According to subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area is determined.
Specifically, the soil land-use style planning provided according to subregion department, it is determined that in each subregion building type with
And per class construction area, obtain per class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors, wherein, built per class
Land used load intensity index is preset according to the construction scope and default energy consumption index built per class.According in each subregion
The type of building, every class construction area, every class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors, it is determined that each
The subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of subregion：
Wherein, PkK-th of subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value is represented, Di represents that k-th of subregion the i-th class building electricity consumption is born
Lotus intensity index, Si represent k-th of subregion the i-th class construction area, and η represents all kinds of building load simultaneity factors of k-th of subregion.
As the further improvement of above method embodiment, each subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value is overlapped,
All subregion distant view saturation prediction load values in target area are overlapped, it is pre- to obtain the total distant view saturation loading in target area
Measured value.
As the further improvement of above method embodiment, the land area of target area is obtained, it is total according to target area
Distant view saturation load forecasting value and target area land area, by the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area divided by
The land area of target area, obtain the load density of target area.
A kind of load prediction device based on region building property, including：Zoning unit, for dividing target area
Area；Memory cell, for obtaining each subregion power planning prediction index, the power planning prediction index includes the class of building
Type, all kinds of construction areas, default all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor；Determining unit, for basis
Power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion, and satisfied according to the subregion distant view
And predicted load, determine the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area.
Specifically, determining unit is used for the soil land-use style planning provided according to subregion department, it is determined that in each subregion
The type of building and every class construction area；It is every that memory cell is used to obtain the categorical data of building and storage in each subregion
Class construction area, every class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors；Memory cell is additionally operable to basis and built
Build scale and default energy consumption index preset building power load intensity index.Determining unit is additionally operable to build according in each subregion
Type, per class construction area, per class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors, it is determined that each subregion
Subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value：
Wherein, PkK-th of subregion distant view saturation prediction load is represented, Di represents k-th of subregion the i-th class building electricity consumption load
Intensity index, Si represent k-th of subregion the i-th class construction area, and η represents all kinds of building load simultaneity factors of k-th of subregion.
Specifically, determining unit is used to each subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value being overlapped, target is obtained
The total distant view saturation load forecasting value in region.
Specifically, memory cell is used for the land area for obtaining the target area, satisfied according to the distant view that target area is total
With predicted load and the land area of the target area, by target area total distant view saturation load forecasting value divided by target
The land area in region, obtain the load density of target area.
The load forecasting method for giving region building property to the present invention using certain Cooperative District as embodiment elaborates,
It is specific as follows：
According to certain Cooperative District unified plan, the cooperation is distinguished into 3 sections, 3 pieces are distinguished into 22 units, by 22
Individual unit is divided into 102 neighbours, then 102 neighbours are divided into 661 plot.
Specifically, first, according to each neighbour's construction scale, each neighbour accordingly all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and
All kinds of building load simultaneity factors, neighbour's distant view saturation load forecasting value of 102 neighbours is calculated；
Secondly, neighbour's distant view saturation load forecasting value that each unit is corresponded to neighbour is overlapped, and obtains 22 units
Unit distant view saturation load forecasting value, can similarly obtain the total distant view of the section distant view saturation load forecasting values of 3 sections, the whole district
Saturation load forecasting value.
Furthermore 102 neighbour's distant view saturation load forecasting values are assigned to plot according to each plot floor space size, obtained
To plot distant view saturation load forecasting value.
Specifically, urban construction scale is decomposed, town site can be divided into R (inhabitation), A (public administration with it is public
Service facility), B (commerce services industry facility), M (industry), W (logistic storage), U (communal facility), S (traffic), G (greenery patches and
Square) 8 major class campsites.In the present embodiment, it is assumed that the total land area 14.92km in the Cooperative District2, the m of total construction scale about 26,000,0002
To 30,000,000 m2, wherein, 26,000,000 m2On the basis of scale, 30,000,000 m2It is always remote with certain Cooperative District in the present embodiment for upper limit scale
Based on scape saturation load forecasting above limit gauge mould.3 sections, respectively the first section, the second section are divided into the cooperation
With the 3rd section, wherein, the land area about 2.95km of the first section2, upper limit building total amount about 10,600,000 m2, average volume rate
For 3.6；Second section land area about 3.1km2, upper limit building total amount about 7,050,000 m2, average volume rate is 2.3；3rd section
Land area about 6.2km2, upper limit building total amount about 12,250,000 m2, average volume rate is 2.0.The then average volume rate of the Cooperative District
Reach 2.0.
The m of the office building total amount upper limit about 1863.1 ten thousand2, accounting 62%；The m of the commercial building total amount upper limit about 261.8 ten thousand2, accounting
9%；Live and office apartment builds the m of the total amount upper limit about 440.6 ten thousand2, accounting 14%；The communal facility building total amount upper limit about 148
Ten thousand m2, accounting 5%；The m of the elasticity building total amount upper limit about 286.5 ten thousand2, accounting 10%.
The Cooperative District land area and construction scale index decomposition are shown in Table 1.1:
Cooperative District land area and construction scale index decomposition table 1.1
After the cooperation is distinguished into 3 sections, 3 pieces are distinguished into 22 units, specifically, the first section includes 6
Unit (unit one to unit six), the second section include 7 units (unit seven to unit 13), and the 3rd section includes 8 lists
First (unit 14 to unit 21), unit 22 is water gallery, according to all kinds of construction scopes in the Cooperative District and default energy
All kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs in each section in the selecting index Cooperative District are consumed, specifically as shown in table 1.2：
All kinds of building load index tables 1.2 in Cooperative District
According to each unit construction scale, the corresponding building electricity consumption load intensity index of each unit and all kinds of building loads simultaneously
Rate, the section distant view saturation load forecasting value of each section is calculated, wherein, the first section be 604MW, the second section 408MW,
3rd section 590MW.Each section load density and power load distributing situation are as shown in table 1.3, unit detailed data such as table
It is 1.4 shown.
Each section future load forecast result table 1.3 in Cooperative District
Cooperative District each unit future load forecast detail list 1.4
The present embodiment is by taking certain Cooperative District as an example, from regional development electric power demand side, by regional construction (building) scale
Subdivision, chooses appropriate power load intensity index respectively, under conditions of different load simultaneity factor is investigated, synthesizes the whole district and burst
Area's saturation electric load, the saturation loading scale that is likely to be breached of regional power grid development is obtained, finally with total load divided by use ground
Product obtains the regional complex load density.
It is a kind of based on region building property load forecasting method, target area is subjected to subregion, according to the type of building,
All kinds of construction areas, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor, calculate subregion distant view saturation load forecasting
Value, determines the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area, with prior art further according to subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value
Compare, the load prediction precision to target area is higher.
It is a kind of based on region building property load prediction device, target area is subjected to subregion, according to the type of building,
All kinds of construction areas, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor, calculate subregion distant view saturation load forecasting
Value, determines the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area, with prior art further according to subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value
Compare, the load prediction precision to target area is higher.
Above is the preferable implementation to the present invention is illustrated, but the invention is not limited to the implementation
Example, those skilled in the art can also make a variety of equivalent variations on the premise of without prejudice to spirit of the invention or replace
Change, these equivalent deformations or replacement are all contained in the application claim limited range.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property, it is characterised in that it includes：
Subregion is carried out to target area；
Each subregion power planning prediction index is obtained, the power planning prediction index includes the type of building, all kinds of building sides
Long-pending, all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor；
According to power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion；
According to the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area is determined.
2. a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described true
Area's predicted load of fixed each subregion, it is specially：
According to the soil land-use style planning of subregion department offer, it is determined that the type of building and every class building sides in each subregion
Product；
Obtain per class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors；
According to the type built in each subregion, every class construction area, per class building electricity consumption load intensity index and all kinds of buildings
Load simultaneity factor, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion：
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<mo>&times;</mo>
<mi>S</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>&times;</mo>
<mi>&eta;</mi>
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</mrow>
Wherein, PkK-th of subregion distant view saturation prediction load is represented, Di represents k-th of subregion the i-th class building electricity consumption load intensity
Index, Si represent k-th of subregion the i-th class construction area, and η represents all kinds of building load simultaneity factors of k-th of subregion.
3. a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property according to claim 2, it is characterised in that will be each
The subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value is overlapped, and obtains the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area.
4. a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property according to claim 3, it is characterised in that obtain institute
The land area of target area is stated, according to the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in the target area and the use of the target area
Ground area, obtain the load density of target area.
5. a kind of load forecasting method based on region building property according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described to build
Power load intensity index is built to be preset according to construction scope and default energy consumption index.
6. a kind of load prediction device based on region building property, it is characterised in that it includes：
Zoning unit, for carrying out subregion to target area；
Memory cell, for obtaining each subregion power planning prediction index, the power planning prediction index includes the class of building
Type, construction area, default all kinds of building electricity consumption load intensity indexs and load simultaneity factor；
Determining unit, for according to power planning prediction index, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion, with
And according to the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value, determine the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in target area.
7. a kind of load prediction device based on region building property according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described true
Area's predicted load of fixed each subregion, it is specially：
The determining unit is used for the soil land-use style planning provided according to subregion department, it is determined that the class of the interior building of each subregion
Type and every class construction area；
The memory cell is used to obtain the categorical data of building and storage in each subregion and built per class construction area, per class
Power load intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors；
The determining unit is additionally operable to according to the type built in each subregion, every class construction area, per class building electricity consumption load
Intensity index and all kinds of building load simultaneity factors, it is determined that the subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value of each subregion：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>P</mi>
<mi>k</mi>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<munderover>
<mo>&Sigma;</mo>
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<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
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<mi>i</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>&times;</mo>
<mi>&eta;</mi>
<mo>,</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein, PkK-th of subregion distant view saturation prediction load is represented, Di represents k-th of subregion the i-th class building electricity consumption load intensity
Index, Si represent k-th of subregion the i-th class construction area, and η represents all kinds of building load simultaneity factors of k-th of subregion.
8. a kind of load prediction device based on region building property according to claim 7, it is characterised in that described true
Order member is used to each subregion distant view saturation load forecasting value being overlapped, and obtains the total distant view saturation in target area and bears
Lotus predicted value.
9. a kind of load prediction device based on region building property according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described to deposit
Storage unit is used to obtain the land area of the target area, according to the total distant view saturation load forecasting value in the target area and
The land area of the target area, obtain the load density of target area.
10. a kind of load prediction device based on region building property according to claim 9, it is characterised in that described
Memory cell is used for according to construction scope and default energy consumption index preset building power load intensity index.
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| CN201710823338.0A CN107730027A (en) | 2017-09-13 | 2017-09-13 | A kind of load forecasting method and device based on region building property |
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| CN201710823338.0A CN107730027A (en) | 2017-09-13 | 2017-09-13 | A kind of load forecasting method and device based on region building property |
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| CN (1) | CN107730027A (en) |
Cited By (7)
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| CN108491969A (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2018-09-04 | 国家电网公司 | Spatial Load Forecasting model building method based on big data |
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| CN111612031A (en) * | 2020-04-03 | 2020-09-01 | 华电电力科学研究院有限公司 | Regional building dynamic load prediction method based on high-dimensional spatial clustering neighbor search |
| CN111626485A (en) * | 2020-05-11 | 2020-09-04 | 新智数字科技有限公司 | Load prediction system and method for regional building energy system |
| CN112001525A (en) * | 2020-07-22 | 2020-11-27 | 温州电力设计有限公司 | Regional perspective and near-intermediate-period comprehensive load prediction method |
| CN112541618A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Active power distribution network planning method based on gridding and storage medium |
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Cited By (10)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108491969A (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2018-09-04 | 国家电网公司 | Spatial Load Forecasting model building method based on big data |
| CN108491969B (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2021-12-24 | 国家电网公司 | Big data-based space load prediction model construction method |
| CN108870671A (en) * | 2018-04-19 | 2018-11-23 | 天津大学 | A kind of Air-conditioning Load Prediction method suitable for the building plans stage |
| CN111612031A (en) * | 2020-04-03 | 2020-09-01 | 华电电力科学研究院有限公司 | Regional building dynamic load prediction method based on high-dimensional spatial clustering neighbor search |
| CN111626485A (en) * | 2020-05-11 | 2020-09-04 | 新智数字科技有限公司 | Load prediction system and method for regional building energy system |
| CN112001525A (en) * | 2020-07-22 | 2020-11-27 | 温州电力设计有限公司 | Regional perspective and near-intermediate-period comprehensive load prediction method |
| CN112541618A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Active power distribution network planning method based on gridding and storage medium |
| CN112541617A (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2021-03-23 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Constant volume and site selection method for transformer substation and storage medium |
| CN112541617B (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2022-11-22 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Constant volume and site selection method for transformer substation and storage medium |
| CN112541618B (en) * | 2020-11-30 | 2023-01-10 | 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Active power distribution network planning method based on gridding and storage medium |
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