CN104766242A - Method for evaluating dangerousness of water inrush from coal floor - Google Patents
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Abstract
Provided is a method for evaluating dangerousness of water inrush from a coal floor. The method is characterized in that a principle component analysis method and a GIS space analysis method are combined, the influence factors and indexes of water inrush from the coal floor are graded in sequence, the basic data of the 17 graded indexes are obtained, R and S type principle component comprehensive analysis is carried out on the basic data, master control factors are screened out, a water inrush dangerousness evaluation formula is built according to the determined master control factors, master control factor thematic maps are built according to the GIS space analysis method, finally, all the thematic maps are overlapped according to the water inrush dangerousness evaluation formula, and a thematic map of the dangerousness of water inrush from the coal floor is obtained so that the dangerousness of water inrush from the coal floor can be evaluated accurately, reliably and quantitatively. The method has the advantages of being quantitative, visualized and the like, scientific bases can be provided for actual production, and the realistic positive guiding function on coal mine safety production is achieved.
Description
Technical field
The invention provides a kind of evaluation method of coal seam bottom water bursting, particularly relate to a kind of coal seam floor water-inrush risk evaluation method.
Background technology
Mine water bursting disaster prevention is the great research topic of China's coal-mine safety always, and coal seam bottom water bursting is the principal mode of mine water inrush accident, and the evaluation coal seam bottom water bursting of reasonable science is the important prerequisite ensureing Safety of Coal Mine Production.
For many years, the evaluation method of many scholars to coal seam bottom water bursting has done large quantifier elimination, proposes many more feasible theories, as " Multi-source Information Fusion method ", " vulnerable index ", " partial least-squares regression method " etc.
But there is all many-sided deficiencies in these evaluation methods, main manifestations is: one is, to the quantitative test of the influence degree of coal seam bottom water bursting influence factor, evaluate less; Two are, floor water bursting evaluation result is not directly perceived; What is more important, said method all can not realize, to coal seam bottom water bursting Forecast and evaluation comparatively accurately in advance, all there is reliability defect on the low side or deficiency more or less.
How to carry out science coal seam bottom water bursting risk assessment accurately, and this risk assessment result is quantized, more vivid, show intuitively, for Safety of Coal Mine Production provides reliable guidance, become those skilled in the art thirst for always solve technical matters.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is, provide a kind of coal seam floor water-inrush risk evaluation method, it has Water Inrush influence factor indices quantification, the image in Water Inrush region, intuitively technical characterstic.
The technical scheme that the present invention is adopted for achieving the above object is, a kind of coal seam floor water-inrush risk evaluation method, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
The first step, carry out Index grading, principle of grading is as follows: tectonic structure, hydrogeological condition, water-resisting floor and mining conditions are defined as first class index;
Then, above-mentioned 4 first class index are subdivided into 17 two-level index, are specially:
Tectonic structure is divided into 3 two-level index, is respectively: fault transmissibility, crack density and cranny development degree;
Hydrogeological condition is divided into 5 two-level index, is respectively: water-bearing zone watery, piestic water hydraulic pressure, karst development degree, strong water recharging degree and piestic water rising height;
Water-resisting floor is divided into 3 two-level index, is respectively: effective water-resisting layer thickness, water-resisting layer integrality and water-resisting layer lithological combination;
Mining conditions is divided into 6 two-level index, is respectively: stope width, fltting speed, working thickness, mining depth, seam inclination and Mined-out Area control mode;
Second step, obtains the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index;
3rd step, carry out R, S type major component to the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index and comprehensively analyze, step is as follows: first carry out the principal component analysis (PCA) of R type, then carries out the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type;
Finally, the arithmetic average getting the weight of each index of R type and the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type is as comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA) value and carry out size sequence, first 6 that get sequence, namely obtains 6 Dominated Factors and weight thereof;
4th step, according to 6 Dominated Factors determined and weight thereof, carries out Water Inrush risk assessment, and appraisal procedure carries out computing by following Spray water way assessment operational formula,
In above formula:
P represents Water Inrush dangerous values;
Ai (wherein, i=1 ~ 6) represents the weight of i-th Dominated Factors;
Xi (wherein, i=1 ~ 6) represents the value after i-th Dominated Factors normalization;
5th step, 6 above-mentioned Dominated Factors thematic maps are set up respectively according to GIS spatial analytical method, concrete grammar is as follows: mine laneway is arranged CAD figure imports in GIS, the workplace of required research is selected in GIS, again each basic data of the Dominated Factors of investigation is imported in GIS, obtain this 6 Dominated Factors thematic maps;
6th step, above-mentioned 6 Dominated Factors thematic maps are carried out map overlay according to above-mentioned Spray water way assessment operational formula, therefrom intuitively find out the height region of Water Inrush danger, obtain the dangerous distribution plan of Water Inrush, and the hazardous location of coal seam bottom water bursting is judged according to the dangerous distribution plan of the Water Inrush obtained, complete coal seam bottom water bursting hazard assessment.
The technique effect that technique scheme is directly brought is, combined with GIS spatial analytical method by principal component analysis (PCA), carry out coal seam bottom water bursting hazard assessment, on the one hand, fatalness region and the grade of coal seam bottom water bursting can be reflected more visual in imagely, be convenient to advance preventing in recovery process, process; On the other hand, hazard assessment process can be simplified.For understanding this point better, existing brief description is as follows:
1, due to the complicacy of coal seam bottom water bursting mechanism and the non-linear dynamic of process thereof, so affect Water Inrush many factors.And variable is too many, difficulty and the complicacy of coal seam bottom water bursting risk analysis will be increased.
Technique scheme is by using principal component analysis (PCA), Dominated Factors is filtered out from numerous influence factor, and according to Spray water way assessment operational formula by each basic data by Dominated Factors quantification (obtaining Water Inrush dangerous values), thus achieve coal seam bottom water bursting preferably and be converted into quantitative evaluation by traditional qualitative evaluation.
2, in conjunction with GIS spatial analytical method, according to GIS research range, again each basic data of the Dominated Factors of investigation is imported in GIS, obtain every Dominated Factors thematic map, thus can image, highlight the height region of coal seam bottom water bursting danger intuitively, determine Water Inrush fatalness region by this, and then reliable directive function is played to Safety of Coal Mine Production and water prevention work.
Be preferably, R, S type major component of the basic data of 17 above-mentioned two-level index is comprehensively analyzed and is carried out as follows:
(1) R type principal component analysis (PCA): first basic data is converted into standardized data, asks the correlation matrix of data, and then asks characteristic root and the proper vector of correlation matrix;
Then, to be multiplied with each proper vector by standardized data and to try to achieve the weight of each index factor;
(2) S type principal component analysis (PCA): first change data by centered by basic data conversion, asks the covariance matrix of data, and then asks characteristic root and the proper vector of covariance matrix;
Be multiplied with each proper vector by the centralization data obtained again, obtain the weight of each index factor;
(3) comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA):
Get the arithmetic mean of the weight of each index that R type and the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type obtain as comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA) value, and carry out size sequence, thus obtain Dominated Factors.
The technique effect that this optimal technical scheme is directly brought is, principal component analysis (PCA) is a kind of Multielement statistical analysis method, the effect of main landing peacekeeping reduced data structure.Wherein, R type analysis refers to the principal component analysis (PCA) of the correlation matrix R from former data; S type analysis refers to the principal component analysis (PCA) of the covariance matrix S from former data.R type and the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type are because the difference of matrix, two kinds of analytical approach result of calculations have different, be difficult to distinguish any method relatively more reasonable, if but two kinds of methods combining get up to determine coal seam bottom water bursting Dominated Factors and weighted value thereof, its result will have more rationality and cogency, finally can obtain the dangerous distribution plan of Water Inrush, from this figure, intuitively find out the height region of Water Inrush danger, thus judge the hazardous location of coal seam bottom water bursting.
Further preferably, the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index obtains as follows:
Crack density, piestic water hydraulic pressure, piestic water rising height, effective water-resisting layer thickness, stope width, fltting speed, working thickness, mining depth and seam inclination totally 9 two-level index basic data by the spot exploration obtain;
Fault transmissibility, cranny development degree, water-bearing zone watery, karst development degree, strong water recharging degree, water-resisting layer integrality, water-resisting layer lithological combination and Mined-out Area control mode, totally 8 two-level index basic datas, that the weighted mean value getting respective respective items respectively obtains from the mine raw statistical data of nearly 3 years.
The technique effect that this optimal technical scheme is directly brought is, will explore on the spot and combine with raw statistical data, and one is effectively utilize the mine raw statistical data of nearly 3 years, is conducive to the reliability improving basic data; Two are, can save the workload of on-site land survey on the spot, save time and human cost, increase work efficiency.
In sum, the present invention, relative to prior art, has following beneficial effect:
1, achieve coal seam bottom water bursting and be converted into quantitative evaluation by traditional qualitative evaluation.
2, principal component analysis (PCA) is now combined with GIS spatial analytical method, can image, reflect coal seam bottom water bursting fatalness region intuitively, and the height of the corresponding risk numerical value in each region, and then provide scientific basis for actual production, Safety of Coal Mine Production is had to the positive directive function of reality.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is coal seam bottom water bursting influence factor Index grading structural representation;
Fig. 2 is coal seam bottom water bursting Dominated Factors thematic map;
Fig. 3 is coal seam bottom water bursting dangerous values distribution plan.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is described in detail.
Illustrate: in the present invention, the abbreviation that " GIS " that address is Geographic Information System or Geo-Informationsystem.That is, Geographic Information System.
Embodiment 1
For certain mining area, evaluated coal seam bottom water bursting danger before this ore deposit pit mining, method is as follows:
As shown in Figure 1, the first step, carry out Index grading, principle of grading is as follows: tectonic structure, hydrogeological condition, water-resisting floor and mining conditions are defined as first class index;
Then, above-mentioned 4 first class index are subdivided into 17 two-level index, are specially:
Tectonic structure is divided into 3 two-level index, is respectively: fault transmissibility, crack density and cranny development degree;
Hydrogeological condition is divided into 5 two-level index, is respectively: water-bearing zone watery, piestic water hydraulic pressure, karst development degree, strong water recharging degree and piestic water rising height;
Water-resisting floor is divided into 3 two-level index, is respectively: effective water-resisting layer thickness, water-resisting layer integrality and water-resisting layer lithological combination;
Mining conditions is divided into 6 two-level index, is respectively: stope width, fltting speed, working thickness, mining depth, seam inclination and Mined-out Area control mode;
Second step, obtains the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index;
Result is as shown in table 1:
Wherein, crack density, piestic water hydraulic pressure, piestic water rising height, effective water-resisting layer thickness, stope width, fltting speed, working thickness, mining depth and seam inclination totally 9 two-level index basic data by the spot exploration obtain;
The statistics of fault transmissibility, cranny development degree, water-bearing zone watery, karst development degree, strong water recharging degree, water-resisting layer integrality, water-resisting layer lithological combination and Mined-out Area control mode, get weighted mean value respectively, obtaining totally 8 two-level index basic datas is that the weighted mean value getting respective respective items respectively obtains from the mine raw statistical data data of nearly 3 years.
Table 1
| Sequence number | Two-level index (unit) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 1 | Piestic water hydraulic pressure (MPa) | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| 2 | Piestic water rising height (m) | 2.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Effective water-resisting layer thickness (m) | 38.2 | 58.4 | 42.1 | 55.6 | 69.2 | 65.9 | 57.8 | 65.7 |
| 4 | Crack density | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| 5 | Fault transmissibility | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| 6 | Cranny development degree | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 7 | Water-bearing zone watery (l/s.m) | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| 8 | Karst development degree | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Strong water recharging degree | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Water-resisting layer integrality | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| 11 | Water-resisting layer lithological combination | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| 12 | Mined-out Area control mode | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 13 | Stope width (m) | 96 | 64 | 86 | 108 | 98 | 102 | 95 | 99 |
| 14 | Fltting speed (m/d) | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| 15 | Working thickness (m) | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 16 | Mining depth (m) | 750.2 | 746.5 | 772.4 | 723.9 | 741.4 | 735.1 | 746.0 | 752.4 |
| 17 | Seam inclination (degree) | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
3rd step, carry out R, S type major component to the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index and comprehensively analyze, step is as follows: first carry out the principal component analysis (PCA) of R type, then carries out the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type;
Finally, the arithmetic average getting the weight of each index of R type and the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type is as comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA) value and carry out size sequence, and result is as shown in table 2.
Table 2 index factor and weight thereof
4th step, according to the result of table 2, from table, get sequence first 6, namely select stope width, effective water-resisting layer thickness, piestic water hydraulic pressure, piestic water rising height, cranny development degree and water-resisting layer integrality 6 Dominated Factors that weighted value is 1-6, by the weight a of its correspondence
i(i=1 ~ 6), carry out Water Inrush risk assessment, and appraisal procedure carries out computing by following Spray water way assessment operational formula,
In above formula:
P represents Water Inrush dangerous values;
Ai (wherein, i=1 ~ 6) represents the weight of i-th Dominated Factors;
Xi (wherein, i=1 ~ 6) represents the value after i-th Dominated Factors normalization.
Computation process is as follows:
P＝0.0937x
1+0.0929x
2+0.0903x
3+0.0825x
4+0.0804x
5+0.0707x
6
5th step, 6 above-mentioned Dominated Factors thematic maps are set up respectively according to GIS spatial analytical method, concrete grammar is as follows: mine laneway is arranged CAD figure imports in GIS, the workplace of required research is selected in GIS, again each basic data of the Dominated Factors of investigation is imported in GIS, obtain this 6 Dominated Factors thematic maps, namely Fig. 2-1 is to Fig. 2-6.
As shown in Fig. 2-1 to Fig. 2-6, in figure, (a) stope width; (b) effective water-resisting layer thickness; (c) piestic water rising height; (d) water-resisting layer integrality; (e) cranny development degree; (f) piestic water hydraulic pressure;
As shown in Fig. 2-1 to Fig. 2-6, in Fig. 2-1,2-3,2-5 and 2-6, the darker region representation Spray water way of color is larger; In Fig. 2-2 and Fig. 2-4, the more shallow region representation Spray water way of color is larger.
6th step, above-mentioned 6 Dominated Factors thematic maps are carried out map overlay according to above-mentioned Spray water way assessment operational formula, therefrom intuitively find out the height region of Water Inrush danger, obtain the dangerous distribution plan of Water Inrush, and the hazardous location of coal seam bottom water bursting is judged according to the dangerous distribution plan of the Water Inrush obtained, complete coal seam bottom water bursting hazard assessment.
As shown in Figure 3, in figure, the region that color is darker, corresponding gushing water dangerous values is larger, represents that Spray water way is larger.Can visually see from Fig. 3, color darker region Water Inrush danger is higher, and the more shallow region danger of color is lower.In actual production process, use the above results to carry out coal seam bottom water bursting key area and take precautions against, achieve very good preventive effect.Actual result shows, above-mentioned evaluation result and actual conditions basically identical, its reliability, accuracy are higher.
Claims (3)
1. a coal seam floor water-inrush risk evaluation method, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
The first step, carry out Index grading, principle of grading is as follows: tectonic structure, hydrogeological condition, water-resisting floor and mining conditions are defined as first class index;
Then, above-mentioned 4 first class index are subdivided into 17 two-level index, are specially:
Tectonic structure is divided into 3 two-level index, is respectively: fault transmissibility, crack density and cranny development degree;
Hydrogeological condition is divided into 5 two-level index, is respectively: water-bearing zone watery, piestic water hydraulic pressure, karst development degree, strong water recharging degree and piestic water rising height;
Water-resisting floor is divided into 3 two-level index, is respectively: effective water-resisting layer thickness, water-resisting layer integrality and water-resisting layer lithological combination;
Mining conditions is divided into 6 two-level index, is respectively: stope width, fltting speed, working thickness, mining depth, seam inclination and Mined-out Area control mode;
Second step, obtains the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index;
3rd step, carry out R, S type major component to the basic data of above-mentioned 17 two-level index and comprehensively analyze, step is as follows: first carry out the principal component analysis (PCA) of R type, then carries out the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type;
Finally, the arithmetic average getting the weight of each index of R type and the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type is as comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA) value and carry out size sequence, first 6 that get sequence, namely obtains 6 Dominated Factors and weight thereof;
4th step, according to 6 Dominated Factors determined and weight thereof, carries out Water Inrush risk assessment, and appraisal procedure carries out computing by following Spray water way assessment operational formula,
In above formula:
P represents Water Inrush dangerous values;
A
i(wherein, i=1 ~ 6) represent the weight of i-th Dominated Factors;
X
i(wherein, i=1 ~ 6) represent the value after i-th Dominated Factors normalization;
5th step, 6 above-mentioned Dominated Factors thematic maps are set up respectively according to GIS spatial analytical method, concrete grammar is as follows: mine laneway is arranged CAD figure imports in GIS, the workplace of required research is selected in GIS, again each basic data of the Dominated Factors of investigation is imported in GIS, obtain this 6 Dominated Factors thematic maps;
6th step, above-mentioned 6 Dominated Factors thematic maps are carried out map overlay according to above-mentioned Spray water way assessment operational formula, therefrom intuitively find out the height region of Water Inrush danger, obtain the dangerous distribution plan of Water Inrush, and the hazardous location of coal seam bottom water bursting is judged according to the dangerous distribution plan of the Water Inrush obtained, complete coal seam bottom water bursting hazard assessment.
2. coal seam floor water-inrush risk evaluation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, R, S type major component of the basic data of 17 described two-level index is comprehensively analyzed and carried out as follows:
(1) R type principal component analysis (PCA): first basic data is converted into standardized data, asks the correlation matrix of data, and then asks characteristic root and the proper vector of correlation matrix;
Then, to be multiplied with each proper vector by standardized data and to try to achieve the weight of each index factor;
(2) S type principal component analysis (PCA): first change data by centered by basic data conversion, asks the covariance matrix of data, and then asks characteristic root and the proper vector of covariance matrix;
Be multiplied with each proper vector by the centralization data obtained again, obtain the weight of each index factor;
(3) comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA):
Get the arithmetic mean of the weight of each index that R type and the principal component analysis (PCA) of S type obtain as comprehensive principal component analysis (PCA) value, and carry out size sequence, thus obtain Dominated Factors.
3. coal seam floor water-inrush risk evaluation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the basic data of described 17 two-level index obtains as follows:
Crack density, piestic water hydraulic pressure, piestic water rising height, effective water-resisting layer thickness, stope width, fltting speed, working thickness, mining depth and seam inclination totally 9 two-level index basic data by the spot exploration obtain;
Fault transmissibility, cranny development degree, water-bearing zone watery, karst development degree, strong water recharging degree, water-resisting layer integrality, water-resisting layer lithological combination and Mined-out Area control mode, totally 8 two-level index basic datas, that the weighted mean value getting respective respective items respectively obtains from the mine raw statistical data of nearly 3 years.
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| CN109359374A (en) * | 2018-10-10 | 2019-02-19 | 山东科技大学 | The Secondary Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method of evaluating coal seam bottom water bursting |
| CN110826235A (en) * | 2019-10-18 | 2020-02-21 | 山东科技大学 | Principal component Logistic regression analysis method for evaluating water inrush of coal seam floor |
| CN110837701A (en) * | 2019-11-12 | 2020-02-25 | 中南大学 | Mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full-coupling analysis |
| CN111652490A (en) * | 2020-05-28 | 2020-09-11 | 山东科技大学 | New deep mine tectonic type water inrush prediction method based on fracture mechanics theory |
| CN112380691A (en) * | 2020-11-12 | 2021-02-19 | 合肥工业大学 | Method for evaluating risk of water inrush during mining under loose confined aquifer |
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