CN110837701A - Mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full-coupling analysis - Google Patents

Mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full-coupling analysis Download PDF

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CN110837701A
CN110837701A CN201911100790.XA CN201911100790A CN110837701A CN 110837701 A CN110837701 A CN 110837701A CN 201911100790 A CN201911100790 A CN 201911100790A CN 110837701 A CN110837701 A CN 110837701A
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周清龙
曹平
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for quantitatively evaluating the water inrush risk of a fault of a bottom plate of a mining area, which comprises the following specific steps of: extracting corresponding secondary main control factors of water inrush during mining of the fault of the mine floor according to the primary main control factors of water inrush of the fault of the coal seam floor; constructing a corresponding interaction matrix according to the secondary main control factors, and performing full-coupling analysis on each extracted secondary main control factor by using the constructed interaction matrix; carrying out numerical coding on the interaction matrix according to the interaction strength of each main control factor in the full-coupling analysis, and obtaining the weight of each secondary main control factor according to a coding result; establishing a local floor fault water inrush coefficient calculation method in the mining area according to the weight of each secondary master control factor; spline interpolation is carried out on the fault water inrush coefficient of each local bottom plate, and a bottom plate fault water inrush risk contour distribution diagram of the whole mining area is drawn. The method has deep theoretical and practical values and high evaluation accuracy, and provides a new method for quantitative risk evaluation of water inrush in mining areas.

Description

Mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full-coupling analysis
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of mine safety, and particularly relates to a mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full-coupling analysis.
Background
In the underground mining process, the bottom plate and the fault in the surrounding rock of the bottom plate are influenced by mining stress redistribution to generate stress state change, the fault which is not water-conducting per se is changed into a water-conducting fault or the fault with low water-conducting property is changed into a strong water-conducting fault due to the sudden change of the permeability of the bottom plate or the fault with the low water-conducting property caused by the stress state change, and if the water-conducting fault is connected with the water-containing layer of the bottom plate to generate hydraulic connection, a water-inrush channel can be formed to cause a sudden water inrush (inrush) accident of a working face or a roadway.
Water inrush (inrush) caused by faults is a serious coal mine geological disaster, and from the history of coal mining in China, a large number of underground water inrush accidents occur in mine mining in various regions every year, so that a large number of casualties and equipment inundation are caused, and huge loss is caused to the national economy. From the current mining situation, along with the annual increase of the mining depth of mines in China, the hydrogeological conditions of the mines are more complicated, the disturbance effect of mining on surrounding rocks is more and more large, and the probability of flood disasters in the mine mining in China is more and more large in future. Therefore, accurate quantitative assessment of the water inrush potential of the mine well prior to mining will become increasingly important.
At present, in China, a plurality of methods for evaluating mine water inrush are provided, the simplest and most direct water inrush index method is provided, the vulnerability index method based on an analytic hierarchy process is provided, and many other evaluation methods are established based on a neural network model, fuzzy mathematical analysis and geographic information system technology. In general, although there are many methods for evaluating mine water inrush, the methods are basically constructed by regarding a floor or a roof as an integral object, and no method for constructing the mine floor water inrush risk evaluation by taking a fault as an object exists at present. In addition, when the method is used for building the water inrush evaluation model, each main control factor is considered as an independent individual, and the interaction and the mutual influence among the main control factors are not considered, so that the method is unreasonable, and the built evaluation model cannot accurately evaluate the true level of the water inrush risk of the mining area.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems existing in the current mine floor water inrush risk evaluation model, the invention aims to provide a brand-new mine floor fault water inrush evaluation method based on full coupling analysis, which has the characteristics of quantifying the floor fault water inrush risk and visualizing the floor fault water inrush risk.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full coupling analysis comprises the following steps:
(1) according to the primary main control factor of water inrush of a coal seam floor fault: extracting corresponding mine floor fault mining water inrush secondary main control factors according to the hydraulic characteristics of a floor aquifer, the water blocking capacity of the floor aquifer, the occurrence conditions of a coal bed, the geological fault distribution complexity and the mining disturbance intensity;
(2) constructing a corresponding interaction matrix according to the two-stage main control factors extracted in the step (1), and performing full-coupling analysis on each extracted two-stage main control factor by using the constructed interaction matrix;
(3) carrying out numerical coding on the interaction matrix according to the interaction strength of each main control factor in the full-coupling analysis, and obtaining the weight of each secondary main control factor according to a coding result;
(4) establishing a local floor fault water inrush coefficient calculation method in the mining area according to the weight of each secondary master control factor;
(5) and (4) carrying out spline interpolation on the fault water inrush coefficient of each local bottom plate by using a discrete point interpolation method, and drawing a bottom plate fault water inrush risk contour distribution diagram of the whole mining area.
Preferably, in the step (1), the secondary master factors include: water-rich water of the aquifer, water pressure of the aquifer, thickness of the water-resisting layer, lithology of the water-resisting layer, mining depth of the coal bed, complexity of fault distribution and water filling property of the aquifer.
Preferably, in the step (2), the specific configuration form of the interaction matrix is as follows: the main control factors of each secondary are respectively listed on the main diagonal line of the matrix, the non-main diagonal elements of the matrix represent the mutual influence among the main control factors of each secondary, the rows in the matrix represent the influence of the main control factors of the rows on other main control factors, and the columns in the matrix represent the influence of the other main control factors on the main control factors corresponding to the columns.
Preferably, in the step (2), the full coupling analysis mode is as follows: and respectively carrying out one-to-one mutual influence analysis on the secondary main control elements on any two main diagonals, and analyzing whether the two elements have interaction and correlation relationship.
Preferably, in the step (3), the coding mode of the matrix adopts a semi-expert quantitative coding method, and the coding rule is as follows:
A. if the two main control factors do not have mutual influence, the code is 0;
B. if the two main control factors have weak mutual influence, the code is 1;
C. if the two main control factors have medium mutual influence, the code is 2;
D. if the two main control factors have strong mutual influence, the code is 3;
E. if there is a critically crucial interaction between two master factors, the code is 4.
Preferably, in the step (3), the weight obtaining manner of the secondary master factors is as follows: firstly, the coded values of the rows and columns of each main control element in the matrix are added, and the larger the addition result is, the larger the influence degree of the main control factor on other main control factors or by other main control factors is, the more important the main control factor is, and the larger the weight is.
Preferably, in the step (4), the method for calculating the water inrush coefficient of the local mining area comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of firstly grading each secondary main control factor according to the overall hydrogeological conditions, rock lithology, mining depth, coal seam occurrence conditions and the like of each mining area in China, carrying out comparison rating on each secondary main control factor of the mining area to be actually evaluated on the basis, and multiplying the comparison rating result by the weight of each main control factor to obtain a corresponding water inrush coefficient.
The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full coupling analysis has the following advantages:
1) the model provided by the invention considers the water-rich property, the water filling property, the mining stress disturbance intensity and the water resistance of the coal seam floor, also considers the complexity of fault distribution, and reflects the complexity of the mine hydrogeological environment more truly and objectively.
2) The method abandons the method of independently considering each main control factor in the prior method in the process of evaluating and modeling, provides a method of reflecting the interaction relation among the main control factors by an interaction matrix coding mode, and obtains the weight of each main control factor by the interaction strength of each main control factor and other main control factors, thereby more objectively reflecting the action of each main control factor in the water inrush model.
3) The model constructed by the method can finally obtain the contour map of the water inrush risk distribution of the fault of the whole mining area, and can visually and vividly partition the water inrush risk of the mining area.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full-coupling analysis.
FIG. 2 shows the interaction matrix constructed in this example and the corresponding full coupling analysis.
Fig. 3 is a floor fault water inrush risk contour distribution diagram in the present embodiment.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further illustrated with reference to the following specific examples and the accompanying drawings:
taking a certain mining area as an example, the mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full-coupling analysis of the invention is adopted, and as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
selecting seven corresponding secondary main control factors which are respectively numbered as P1-P7 according to hydrogeological conditions, coal seam occurrence conditions, floor lithology and fault distribution conditions of the evaluated mining area: aquifer water-rich (P1), aquifer water pressure (P2), aquifer thickness (P3), aquifer lithology (P4), coal seam mining depth (P5), fault distribution complexity (P6), aquifer water-filling property (P7);
step two, constructing an interaction matrix on the basis of seven secondary main control factors (P1-P7) extracted in the step one, and performing full coupling analysis on each extracted secondary main control factor by using the constructed interaction matrix, wherein the constructed interaction matrix and the corresponding full coupling analysis are shown in figure 2;
step three, performing numerical coding on the interaction matrix according to the interaction strength of each main control factor in the full coupling analysis, wherein a semi-expert numerical coding method is used in the embodiment, and the coding rule is as follows: if the two main control factors do not have mutual influence, the code is 0; if the two main control factors have weak mutual influence, the code is 1; if the two main control factors have medium mutual influence, the code is 2; if the two main control factors have strong mutual influence, the code is 3; if there is a critical interplay between the two master factors, the code is 4 (see table 1 for specific numerical codes);
TABLE 1 encoding of values of water inrush interaction matrix in floor fault semi-expert method
Figure BDA0002269801410000041
And obtaining the weight of each secondary main control factor according to the coding result, wherein the specific calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002269801410000042
w in formula (1)iRepresents the calculated weight of the ith master factor, CiShowing the influence of the ith master factor on the other master factors, EiRepresenting the influence of other main control factors on the ith main control factor;
in addition, in the process of specifically calculating the water inrush index, the weight needs to be normalized, and the normalization processing formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002269801410000051
s in formula (2)iExpressing the normalized factor weight, the denominator in the formula represents the hierarchical level of the secondary main control factor, the specific hierarchical condition of the main control factor is shown in table 2, and the weight calculation results of seven main control factors in the embodiment are shown in table 3;
TABLE 2 two-stage master control factor grading table
Figure BDA0002269801410000061
TABLE 3 calculation of weights of secondary master control factors
Figure BDA0002269801410000062
Step four, carrying out comparison rating on each secondary main control factor according to specific hydrogeological conditions, rock lithology, mining depth, coal seam occurrence conditions and the like of the mining area (referring to a secondary main control factor grading table in the table 2 for comparison rating), multiplying the comparison rating result by the weight of each main control factor to obtain a corresponding water inrush coefficient, wherein a table 4 shows the comparison rating result and the water inrush coefficient calculation result of 12 hydrogeological drill holes selected for the mining area in the embodiment;
TABLE 4 control rating and Water inrush coefficient calculation for hydrogeological drilling in mining area
Figure BDA0002269801410000063
Figure BDA0002269801410000071
And fifthly, spline interpolation is carried out on the fault water inrush coefficient of each local bottom plate by using a discrete point interpolation method, a bottom plate fault water inrush risk contour distribution diagram of the whole mining area is drawn, and the fault water inrush risk contour distribution diagram in the embodiment is shown in figure 3.
The above-mentioned application examples are only illustrative and the present invention is described in detail by examples, which are only used for further illustration of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and those skilled in the art can make some insubstantial modifications and adaptations of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A mining area bottom plate fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on full coupling analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) according to the primary main control factor of water inrush of a coal seam floor fault: extracting corresponding mine floor fault mining water inrush secondary main control factors according to the hydraulic characteristics of a floor aquifer, the water blocking capacity of the floor aquifer, the occurrence conditions of a coal bed, the geological fault distribution complexity and the mining disturbance intensity;
(2) constructing a corresponding interaction matrix according to the two-stage main control factors extracted in the step (1), and performing full-coupling analysis on each extracted two-stage main control factor by using the constructed interaction matrix;
(3) carrying out numerical coding on the interaction matrix according to the interaction strength of each main control factor in the full-coupling analysis, and obtaining the weight of each secondary main control factor according to a coding result;
(4) establishing a local floor fault water inrush coefficient calculation method in the mining area according to the weight of each secondary master control factor;
(5) and (4) carrying out spline interpolation on the fault water inrush coefficient of each local bottom plate by using a discrete point interpolation method, and drawing a bottom plate fault water inrush risk contour distribution diagram of the whole mining area.
2. The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full-coupling analysis of claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the secondary main control factors comprise: water-rich water of the aquifer, water pressure of the aquifer, thickness of the water-resisting layer, lithology of the water-resisting layer, mining depth of the coal bed, complexity of fault distribution and water filling property of the aquifer.
3. The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full coupling analysis of claim 1, characterized in that in the step (2), the specific configuration form of the interaction matrix is as follows: the main control factors of each secondary are respectively listed on the main diagonal line of the matrix, the non-main diagonal elements of the matrix represent the mutual influence among the main control factors of each secondary, the rows in the matrix represent the influence of the main control factors of the rows on other main control factors, and the columns in the matrix represent the influence of the other main control factors on the main control factors corresponding to the columns.
4. The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full coupling analysis according to claim 1 or 3, characterized in that in the step (2), the full coupling analysis is performed in a manner that: and respectively carrying out one-to-one mutual influence analysis on the secondary main control elements on any two main diagonals, and analyzing whether the two elements have interaction and correlation relationship.
5. The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full-coupling analysis of claim 1, wherein in the step (3), a matrix coding mode adopts a semi-expert quantitative coding method, and a coding rule is as follows:
A. if the two main control factors do not have mutual influence, the code is 0;
B. if the two main control factors have weak mutual influence, the code is 1;
C. if the two main control factors have medium mutual influence, the code is 2;
D. if the two main control factors have strong mutual influence, the code is 3;
E. if there is a critically crucial interaction between two master factors, the code is 4.
6. The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full coupling analysis according to claim 1 or 5, characterized in that in the step (3), the weight obtaining mode of the secondary main control factors is as follows: firstly, the coded values of the rows and columns of each main control element in the matrix are added, and the larger the addition result is, the larger the influence degree of the main control factor on other main control factors or by other main control factors is, the more important the main control factor is, and the larger the weight is.
7. The mining area floor fault water inrush quantitative evaluation method based on the full-coupling analysis of claim 1, wherein in the step (4), the calculation method of the local mining area water inrush coefficient comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of firstly grading each secondary main control factor according to the overall hydrogeological conditions, rock lithology, mining depth, coal seam occurrence conditions and the like of each mining area in China, carrying out comparison rating on each secondary main control factor of the mining area to be actually evaluated on the basis, and multiplying the comparison rating result by the weight of each main control factor to obtain a corresponding water inrush coefficient.
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CN113932877A (en) * 2021-09-30 2022-01-14 深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司凡口铅锌矿 Karst water level prediction method for mining area and terminal equipment
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Cited By (8)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111695303A (en) * 2020-06-17 2020-09-22 中煤能源研究院有限责任公司 Method for evaluating water filling strength of coal seam roof sandstone aquifer
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CN112879093B (en) * 2021-01-28 2022-02-18 中国矿业大学 Fault water inrush risk quantitative evaluation method
CN113932877A (en) * 2021-09-30 2022-01-14 深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司凡口铅锌矿 Karst water level prediction method for mining area and terminal equipment
CN113932877B (en) * 2021-09-30 2023-12-22 深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司凡口铅锌矿 Karst water level prediction method for mining area and terminal equipment
CN114757508A (en) * 2022-03-29 2022-07-15 江西省地质局第七地质大队(江西省地质局稀土应用研究所) Ion adsorption type rare earth ore in-situ leaching applicability evaluation method and model
CN114757508B (en) * 2022-03-29 2024-06-07 江西省地质局第七地质大队(江西省地质局稀土应用研究所) Ion adsorption type rare earth ore in-situ leaching applicability evaluation method and model

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