CN113807667B - Reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method for downstream flood control points - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method aiming at a downstream flood control point, which is characterized by constructing a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model by taking the minimum maximum flood peak flow and the minimum square of the flow in the flood process as targets, and combining a river course flood calculation model to establish the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model aiming at the downstream flood control point; and then, under the constraint condition of reservoir safe operation, the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model from the current period to the effective prediction period is optimized by adopting a successive optimization algorithm through obtaining flood prediction information in the effective prediction period, so as to obtain an optimal decision sequence of a prediction optimal scheduling scheme, and further guide the flood control scheduling of the current period of the reservoir. The method has outstanding flood-blocking and peak-clipping performance, does not need to rely on a large amount of historical data to generate a dispatching diagram or a dispatching rule, is easy for dispatching personnel to practice and operate, can fully utilize forecast information, effectively blocks and holds flood and performs peak clipping aiming at the downstream flood-control point flood process.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir flood control scheduling, in particular to a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method aiming at downstream flood control points.
Background
The reservoir is an important engineering measure for flood control in the river basin, and the reservoir flood control scheduling is an important non-engineering measure for flood control in the river basin. At present, reservoir flood control dispatching operation mainly depends on conventional dispatching and optimized dispatching technologies. The conventional scheduling mainly completes flood control decision according to a scheduling chart or a scheduling rule, and the method is simple and easy to operate, but depends on historical information too much, and has poor acceptance to real-time information and forecast information. The optimal scheduling method solves the optimal scheduling scheme mainly according to the design flood or the historical flood process, and the method cannot adapt to real-time water conditions in actual reservoir scheduling and is poor in operability. In the current stage, the short-term flood forecast precision and the effective forecast period of China can initially meet the actual scheduling requirement, and a reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method which can effectively utilize forecast information and is easy to operate is urgently needed to be searched.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems, and provides a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method for a downstream flood control point, which is characterized by establishing a flood control optimization scheduling model with the minimum flow of the flood control point and the minimum square of the flow of the flood process, carrying out reservoir short-term flood control optimization scheduling model solution by combining short-term flood forecast information, and executing reservoir scheduling operation facing time intervals according to the short-term flood control forecast optimization scheduling scheme obtained by the solution, so as to implement a forecast-optimization-decision process by rolling to effectively block flood and carry out peak clipping for the flood process of the downstream flood control point.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method for a downstream flood control point, which carries out forecast optimization scheduling adjustment calculation according to flood forecast information in an effective forecast period, guides actual flood control scheduling in a facing period according to an optimization scheduling scheme, carries out a forecast-optimization-decision process by rolling so as to effectively block flood and carry out peak clipping for the flood process of the downstream flood control point, and specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at a maximum peak clipping criterion of a downstream flood control point by taking the minimum maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point and the minimum square of the flood process flow as targets;
step 2, establishing a river flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point according to Ma Sijing methods, and combining the river flood calculation model with the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model obtained in the step 1 to obtain a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model aiming at the downstream flood control point;
Step 3, marking the number of the current period as t, and obtaining the initial reservoir capacity of the reservoir in the current period as V t-1;
Step 4, obtaining flood forecast information in the period with the effective forecast period of T p(Tp more than or equal to tau+2Deltat by adopting a short-term flood forecast technology
Step 5, under the constraint condition of reservoir safe operation, according to the forecast information obtained in the step 4And in the step 3, the reservoir initial reservoir capacity V t-1 is optimized by adopting a successive optimization algorithm POA in the period from the current period T to the period t+T p -1 (corresponding to the valid foreseeable period T p) to obtain the optimal decision sequence/>, of the forecast optimization scheduling scheme
Step 6, optimizing the optimal decision sequence of the scheduling scheme according to the forecast obtained in the step 5Guiding flood control scheduling of the current period t of the reservoir;
and 7, repeating the step 3-6, and carrying out flood control dispatching of the reservoir in the next period until the dispatching is finished.
Specifically, in the step 1, a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion is established by taking the minimum maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point and the minimum square of the flood process flow as targets, wherein the reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model is expressed as:
In the above formula: obj 1 —the target value for the minimum maximum flood peak flow at the downstream flood control point;
t-reservoir flood control schedule or duration of a session of flood;
-average flow rate of downstream flood control point t period;
obj 2 —the target value for the sum of squares of the flows of the flood control point floods downstream.
Specifically, in step S2, a river course flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is established according to Ma Sijing methods, and the method for establishing the flood calculation model is as follows:
determining that the flow calculation time lag from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is tau, and the calculation time period length is deltat, wherein the calculation model is as follows:
Wherein:
In the above formula: k, gradient of a storage flow relation curve;
Three calculation parameters of the C 0、C1、C2 -Ma Sijing root method.
Specifically, the optimal decision sequence of the forecast optimization scheduling scheme in step 5, and the priorities of different decision processes in the decision sequence are determined by the following methods:
Because the minimum Obj 1 priority of the maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point is obviously higher than the minimum Obj 2 of the square sum of the flow in the flood process, a processing mode of multi-objective priority is adopted to optimize two objectives;
when two decision processes A and B correspond to the target And/>When the following conditions are satisfied, the decision process A is superior to the decision process B;
or/>
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
The existing reservoir flood control dispatching method mainly comprises conventional dispatching and optimized dispatching; the conventional scheduling mainly completes flood control decisions according to a scheduling chart or a scheduling rule, a large amount of historical operation data or long-sequence optimization calculation results are needed to generate the scheduling chart or the scheduling rule, and the acceptance of real-time information and forecast information is poor; the optimal scheduling method solves the optimal scheduling scheme mainly according to the design flood or the historical flood process, and the method cannot adapt to real-time water conditions in actual reservoir scheduling and is poor in operability.
According to the method, optimal regulation calculation is carried out according to flood forecast information in the effective forecast period, then a reservoir facing period scheduling decision is executed according to a forecast optimal scheduling scheme, and a forecast-optimization-decision process is carried out in a rolling mode to assist in guiding the reservoir to carry out flood control scheduling operation. The scheduling rule is not required to be generated by a large amount of data, and the practice and operation of scheduling personnel are easy; the forecast information can be fully utilized to develop reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling aiming at the downstream flood control points, effectively block the flood and carry out peak clipping aiming at the flood process of the downstream flood control points.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are required in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method for a downstream flood control point according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the change of the water level of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a change in flow rate of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of a flow change of a flood control station downstream of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by one of ordinary skill in the art without inventive faculty, are intended to be within the scope of the present invention, based on the embodiments of the present invention.
Examples: see fig. 1-4.
As shown in fig. 1, the reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method for the downstream flood control point comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at a maximum peak clipping criterion of a downstream flood control point by taking the minimum maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point and the minimum square of the flood process flow as targets;
step 2, establishing a river flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point according to Ma Sijing methods, and combining the river flood calculation model with the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model obtained in the step 1 to obtain a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model aiming at the downstream flood control point;
Step 3, marking the number of the current period as t, and obtaining the initial reservoir capacity of the reservoir in the current period as V t-1;
Step 4, obtaining flood forecast information in the effective forecast period T p(Tp is more than or equal to tau+2Deltat) by adopting a short-term flood forecast technology
Step 5, under the constraint condition of reservoir safe operation, according to the forecast information obtained in the step 4And in the step 3, the reservoir initial reservoir capacity V t-1 is optimized by adopting a successive optimization algorithm POA in the period from the current period T to the period t+T p -1 (corresponding to the valid foreseeable period T p) to obtain the optimal decision sequence/>, of the forecast optimization scheduling scheme
Step 6, optimizing the optimal decision sequence of the scheduling scheme according to the forecast obtained in the step 5Guiding flood control scheduling of the current period t of the reservoir;
and 7, repeating the step 3-6, and carrying out flood control dispatching of the reservoir in the next period until the dispatching is finished.
Specifically, in the step 1, a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion is established by taking the minimum maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point and the minimum square of the flood process flow as targets, wherein the reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model is expressed as:
In the above formula: obj 1 —the target value for the minimum maximum flood peak flow at the downstream flood control point;
t-reservoir flood control schedule or duration of a session of flood;
-average flow rate of downstream flood control point t period;
obj 2 —the target value for the sum of squares of the flows of the flood control point floods downstream.
Specifically, in step S2, a river course flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is established according to Ma Sijing methods, and the method for establishing the flood calculation model is as follows:
determining that the flow calculation time lag from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is tau, and the calculation time period length is deltat, wherein the calculation model is as follows:
Wherein:
In the above formula: k, gradient of a storage flow relation curve;
Three calculation parameters of the C 0、C1、C2 -Ma Sijing root method.
Specifically, the optimal decision sequence of the forecast optimization scheduling scheme in step 5, and the priorities of different decision processes in the decision sequence are determined by the following methods:
Because the minimum Obj 1 priority of the maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point is obviously higher than the minimum Obj 2 of the square sum of the flow in the flood process, a processing mode of multi-objective priority is adopted to optimize two objectives;
when two decision processes A and B correspond to the target And/>When the following conditions are satisfied, the decision process A is superior to the decision process B;
or/>
Example 1
A large reservoir in Ganjiang R is taken as a research object, a flood control forecast optimization scheduling model of the reservoir for a downstream flood control station is established, and typical flood processes of the region in 1992, 7 months and 2019, 7 months and 50 years are selected for analysis.
Model parameter setting: the length of the dispatching time period is set to be 6h, the time from the reservoir to the flood control station is set to be 18h, in the embodiment, the optimal dispatching of flood control forecast of the water reservoir mainly depends on forecast information, effective forecast periods of 24h, 30h, 36h, 48h, 60h and 72h are respectively input, and the technical method effects under different forecast period conditions are analyzed.
In order to test the effectiveness of the method provided by the invention, the simulation result of the pre-discharge scheduling rule of the reservoir in the later flood period is also added, and the comparison analysis is performed by adopting the POA solution flood control optimization scheduling result under the deterministic water supply condition, wherein the analysis result is shown in the following table 1:
table 1 statistics of flood control peak clipping results for downstream flood control stations for different scheme scheduling operations
The analysis results show that:
1) According to the current dispatching regulations, the reservoir has weaker flood blocking and peak clipping effects on the downstream flood control station, and the peak clipping rates are respectively 0.15% and 0.64%, so that the task of not increasing the downstream flood control pressure is only realized;
2) According to the method disclosed by the invention, the reservoir is guided to carry out flood blocking and peak clipping aiming at a downstream flood control station, and the effect is relatively remarkable: for the flood process of 7 months in 1992, when 36h of effective forecast information is adopted, the peak clipping rate is 11.48%, and the peak clipping rate of a deterministic optimal scheduling result is 13.56%; for the 7-month flood process in 2019, when 48h of effective forecast information is adopted, the peak clipping rate is 13.84%, and the peak clipping rate of the deterministic optimal scheduling result is 14.62%.
3) When the reservoir utilizes the forecast information to conduct flood control scheduling on the downstream flood control points, the forecast information is at least 2 time periods more than flood propagation time lags, namely T p =τ+2Δt.
In conclusion, the peak clipping effect and the deterministic optimal scheduling result of the forecast optimal scheduling strategy adopting the method are relatively close; compared with the existing scheduling rules, the flood-control peak-clipping method has outstanding performance, does not need to rely on a large amount of historical data to generate a scheduling chart or a scheduling rule, and is easy for scheduling personnel to practice and operate; the forecast information can be fully utilized to develop reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling aiming at the downstream flood control points, effectively block the flood and carry out peak clipping aiming at the flood process of the downstream flood control points.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and are not limiting; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. The reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method aiming at the downstream flood control point carries out forecast optimal scheduling adjustment calculation according to flood forecast information in an effective forecast period, guides actual flood control scheduling in a facing period according to an optimal scheduling scheme, carries out a forecast-optimization-decision process by rolling so as to effectively block flood and carry out peak clipping aiming at the flood process of the downstream flood control point, and is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, establishing a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at a maximum peak clipping criterion of a downstream flood control point by taking the minimum maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point and the minimum square of the flood process flow as targets;
the reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model is expressed as:
In the above formula: obj 1 —the target value for the minimum maximum flood peak flow at the downstream flood control point;
t-reservoir flood control schedule or duration of a session of flood;
-average flow rate of downstream flood control point t period;
obj 2 —the target value for the sum of squares of the flows of the flood control point floods downstream;
Step 2, a river flood calculation model from a reservoir to a downstream flood control point is established according to Ma Sijing methods, and is combined with the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model obtained in the step 1, so that the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model for the downstream flood control point is obtained, and the establishment method of the flood calculation model is as follows:
determining that the flow calculation time lag from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is tau, and the calculation time period length is deltat, wherein the calculation model is as follows:
Wherein:
In the above formula: k, gradient of a storage flow relation curve;
three calculation parameters of the C 0、C1、C2 -Ma Sijing root method;
Step 3, marking the number of the current period as t, and obtaining the initial reservoir capacity of the reservoir in the current period as V t-1;
Step 4, obtaining flood forecast information in the period with the effective forecast period of T p(Tp more than or equal to tau+2Deltat by adopting a short-term flood forecast technology
Step 5, under the constraint condition of reservoir safe operation, according to the forecast information obtained in the step 4 And the reservoir primary reservoir capacity V t-1 set in the step 3, optimizing a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model in the period from the current period T to the period t+T p -1 by adopting a successive optimization algorithm POA to obtain an optimal decision sequence of a forecast optimization scheduling scheme
The priorities of the different decision processes in the decision sequence are determined by the following method:
Because the minimum Obj 1 priority of the maximum flood peak flow of the flood control point is obviously higher than the minimum Obj 2 of the square sum of the flow in the flood process, a processing mode of multi-objective priority is adopted to optimize two objectives;
when two decision processes A and B correspond to the target And/>When the following conditions are satisfied, the decision process A is superior to the decision process B;
Step 6, optimizing the optimal decision sequence of the scheduling scheme according to the forecast obtained in the step 5 Guiding flood control scheduling of the current period t of the reservoir;
and 7, repeating the step 3-6, and carrying out flood control dispatching of the reservoir in the next period until the dispatching is finished.
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