CN108460510A

CN108460510A - The determination method, apparatus and storage medium of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme

Info

Publication number: CN108460510A
Application number: CN201711459872.4A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 丁留谦; 何晓燕; 张忠波; 李辉; 姜晓明; 任明磊; 阚光远; 王帆; 王刚; 赵丽平
Original assignee: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Current assignee: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Priority date: 2017-12-28
Filing date: 2017-12-28
Publication date: 2018-08-28

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of determination method, apparatus of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme and storage mediums, belong to flood forecast technical field.This method includes：Obtain actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods in step reservoir, and then based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods is determined by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods.Later, based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods and default storage outflow range, the Dispatching Flood scheme that every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir is determined by least square and method improves the determination efficiency and accuracy of the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir.

Description

The determination method, apparatus and storage medium of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme

Technical field

The present invention relates to flood forecast technical field, more particularly to a kind of determination side of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme Method, device and storage medium.

Background technology

With taking place frequently for global warming and Extreme Weather Events, China's flood damage it is sudden, multiple with And uncertain increasingly notable, space-time unique and intensity that no matter it occurs or equal to human survival and the threat degree of development In the forefront of each natural calamity.Therefore, it is had been to be concerned by more and more people the problem of flood damage.In reply flood damage In the process, in order to improve the accuracy of the scheduling scheme of reservoir at different levels in step reservoir, the threat degree of flood damage is reduced, urgently Need a kind of method that Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme can be determined on the basis of flood forecasting.

Invention content

In order to improve the accuracy of the scheduling scheme of reservoir at different levels in step reservoir, to reduce the threat journey of flood damage Degree, the present invention provides a kind of determination method, apparatus of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme and storage mediums.The technical solution is such as Under：

In a first aspect, a kind of determination method of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme is provided, the method includes：

Obtain in step reservoir actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and in the second schedule periods Interior forecast rainfall curve, first schedule periods earlier than second schedule periods and adjacent with second schedule periods, Second schedule periods refer to currently it needs to be determined that the period of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme；

Based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in first schedule periods and in second schedule periods Forecast rainfall curve, every grade of water is determined by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods Section flow curve of the library in second schedule periods；

Based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods and default storage outflow restriction range, lead to It crosses least square and method determines the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir.

Optionally, the actual measurement rainfall curve based on every grade of reservoir in first schedule periods and described Forecast rainfall curve in two schedule periods passes through target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods Before determining section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods, further include：

Purpose reservoir is obtained in the last one scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that first schedule periods include Actual measurement average flow rate, the purpose reservoir be the step reservoir in any level reservoir；

History hydrological data based on the pre-stored purpose reservoir and the actual measurement average flow rate, determine that calibration is pre- Report parameter；

It will determine that obtained calibration forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in initialization Flood Forecasting Model, is obtained with determination Target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods.

Optionally, the method further includes：

When not determining the target Flood Forecasting Model for obtaining the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods, execution obtains The step of taking actual measurement average flow rate of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot that first schedule periods include；

When having determined that obtain target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods, to described Forecast parameter in target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods carries out calibration, to obtain the mesh Mark the forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model of the reservoir in second schedule periods；

Target flood based on the initialization Flood Forecasting Model and the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods The forecast parameter of forecasting model determines target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods.

Optionally, the history hydrological data based on the pre-stored purpose reservoir and the actual measurement mean flow Amount, determines calibration forecast parameter, including：

Obtain in the forecast parameter that the initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes the restriction range of each parameter and corresponding Discrete steps, and it is discrete with the progress of corresponding discrete steps respectively to the restriction range of each parameter, obtain each parameter Multiple centrifugal pumps；

Multiple centrifugal pumps of history hydrological data and each parameter based on the purpose reservoir, determine optimizing forecast Parameter, and using the optimizing forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in the initialization Flood Forecasting Model, obtained with determination excellent Change Flood Forecasting Model；

Based on the optimization Flood Forecasting Model, area of the purpose reservoir in the last one described scheduling slot is determined Between average flow rate；

It, will be described excellent when the difference between the section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate is less than default value Change forecast parameter and is determined as the calibration forecast parameter；

When the difference between the section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate is more than the default value, again The discrete steps of each parameter are set, and returns and the restriction range of each parameter is carried out with corresponding discrete steps respectively Discrete step, until determining that the difference between obtained section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate is less than described preset When numerical value, the optimizing forecast parameter that will eventually determine is determined as the calibration forecast parameter.

Optionally, multiple centrifugal pumps of the history hydrological data based on the purpose reservoir and each parameter, really Determine optimizing forecast parameter, including：

Multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter are combined to obtain multigroup parameter, every group of parameter includes one of each parameter Centrifugal pump；

History hydrological data based on the purpose reservoir is selected by target optimum fitting method from multigroup parameter One group of parameter is selected out, and one group of parameter of selection is determined as the optimizing forecast parameter.

Optionally, described to be based on the optimization Flood Forecasting Model, determine the purpose reservoir in the last one described tune The section average flow rate in the period is spent, including：

Obtain forecast rainfall curve of the purpose reservoir in the last one described scheduling slot；

Based on the forecast rainfall curve in the optimization Flood Forecasting Model and the last one described scheduling slot, really Section flow curve in the last one fixed described scheduling slot；

It is determined in the last one described scheduling slot based on the section flow curve in the last one described scheduling slot Section average flow rate.

Optionally, the section flow curve based on every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods and default storage outflow Restriction range determines the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir by least square and method, including：

Determine that every grade of reservoir is adjusted described second based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods The section average flow rate of each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that the phase of spending includes；

It is discrete to the default storage outflow range progress of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot, obtain multiple outbound streams Amount；

The storage outflow of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot is combined, multigroup scheduling scheme is obtained, per group scheduling Scheme includes the storage outflow of every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot in the multiple scheduling slot；

Under the constraints of the step reservoir, the storage outflow in each scheduling slot and section by every grade of reservoir The least square and method of the sum of average flow rate determine the Dispatching Flood side of the step reservoir from multigroup scheduling scheme Case.

Second aspect, provides a kind of determining device of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme, and described device includes：

First acquisition module, it is bent for obtaining actual measurement rainfall of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods in step reservoir Line and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, first schedule periods earlier than second schedule periods and with it is described Second schedule periods are adjacent, and second schedule periods refer to currently it needs to be determined that the period of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme；

First determining module, for based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in first schedule periods and Forecast rainfall curve in second schedule periods, it is pre- by target flood of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods Report model determines section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods；

Second determining module, for setting out based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods and in advance Library traffic constraints range determines the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir by least square and method.

Optionally, described device further includes：

Second acquisition module, for obtaining purpose reservoir in multiple scheduling slots that first schedule periods are included most Actual measurement average flow rate in the latter scheduling slot, the purpose reservoir are any level reservoir in the step reservoir；

Third determining module, is used for the history hydrological data based on the pre-stored purpose reservoir and the actual measurement is put down Equal flow determines calibration forecast parameter；

4th determining module, the calibration forecast parameter for that will determine is as pre- in initialization Flood Forecasting Model Parameter is reported, target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods is obtained with determination.

Optionally, described device further includes：

First trigger module, for that ought not determine the target flood for obtaining the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods When forecasting model, the actual measurement for obtaining the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot that first schedule periods are included is executed The step of average flow rate；

Second trigger module has determined that obtain target flood of the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods for working as When forecasting model, the forecast parameter in target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods is carried out Calibration, to obtain the forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods；

5th determining module, for being adjusted described second based on the initialization Flood Forecasting Model and the purpose reservoir The forecast parameter for spending the target Flood Forecasting Model in the phase determines target flood of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods Water forecasting model.

Optionally, the third determining module includes：

First discrete unit, for obtaining each parameter in the forecast parameter that the initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes Restriction range and corresponding discrete steps, and to the restriction range of each parameter respectively with corresponding discrete steps carry out from It dissipates, obtains multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter；

First determination unit, for based on the purpose reservoir history hydrological data and each parameter it is multiple from Value is dissipated, determines optimizing forecast parameter, and using the optimizing forecast parameter as the forecast in the initialization Flood Forecasting Model Parameter obtains optimization Flood Forecasting Model to determine；

Second determination unit determines the purpose reservoir described last for being based on the optimization Flood Forecasting Model Section average flow rate in one scheduling slot；

First trigger element, for being less than in advance when the difference between the section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate If when numerical value, the optimizing forecast parameter is determined as the calibration forecast parameter；

Second trigger element, for being more than institute when the difference between the section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate When stating default value, the discrete steps of each parameter are reset, and return to the restriction range of each parameter respectively with respective Corresponding discrete steps carry out discrete step, until determining between obtained section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate Difference be less than the default value when, the optimizing forecast parameter that will eventually determine is determined as the calibration forecast parameter.

Optionally, first determination unit is mainly used for：

Optionally, second determination unit is mainly used for：

Optionally, second determining module includes：

Third determination unit, for determining every grade based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods The section average flow rate of reservoir each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that second schedule periods include；

Second discrete unit, in each scheduling slot to the default storage outflow range of every grade of reservoir carry out from It dissipates, obtains multiple storage outflows；

Assembled unit is combined for the storage outflow to every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot, obtains multigroup scheduling Scheme includes the storage outflow of every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot in the multiple scheduling slot per group scheduling scheme；

4th determination unit is used under the constraints of the step reservoir, by every grade of reservoir in each scheduling The least square and method of the storage outflow and the sum of section average flow rate of section determine the step from multigroup scheduling scheme The Dispatching Flood scheme of reservoir.

The third aspect provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, which is characterized in that is stored in the storage medium Computer program realizes claim 1-7 any methods when the computer program is executed by processor.

The advantageous effect that technical solution provided by the invention is brought is：In the present invention, by obtaining every grade of reservoir first The actual measurement rainfall curve of schedule periods and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, and then in the reality of the first schedule periods It surveys rainfall curve and on the basis of the forecast rainfall curve of the second schedule periods, passes through the corresponding target of every grade of reservoir Flood Forecasting Model determines section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods, improves every grade of water in the second schedule periods The accuracy of the section flow curve in library.Later, the section flow curve based on every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods and default Storage outflow range is determined the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in step reservoir by least square and method, improves every grade The accuracy of the Dispatching Flood scheme of reservoir.

Description of the drawings

To describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, make required in being described below to embodiment Attached drawing is briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, for For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other are can also be obtained according to these attached drawings Attached drawing.

Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the determination method of the first Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 2A is the flow chart of the determination method of second of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 2 B are in a kind of corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model of determining any level reservoir provided in an embodiment of the present invention The flow diagram of forecast parameter；

Fig. 3 A are the flow charts of the determination method of the first Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 3 B are the structural schematic diagrams of the determining device of second of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 3 C are the flow charts of the determination method of the third Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 3 D are the structural schematic diagrams of the determining device of the 4th kind of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 3 E are the flow charts of the determining device of the 5th kind of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 4 is the structural schematic diagram of the determining device of the 6th kind of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

Specific implementation mode

To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to embodiment party of the present invention Formula is described in further detail.

Fig. 1 is a kind of flow diagram of the determination method of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention.Ginseng See Fig. 1, this method comprises the following steps.

Step 101：Obtain in step reservoir actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and the Forecast rainfall curve in two schedule periods, the first schedule periods are earlier than the second schedule periods and adjacent with the second schedule periods, and second Schedule periods refer to currently it needs to be determined that the period of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme.

Step 102：Based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and in the second schedule periods Forecast rainfall curve, determine that every grade of reservoir exists by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Section flow curve in second schedule periods.

Step 103：Section flow curve and default storage outflow constraint model based on every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods It encloses, the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir is determined by least square and method.

In the embodiment of the present invention, by obtaining every grade of reservoir in the actual measurement rainfall curve of the first schedule periods and second The forecast rainfall curve of schedule periods, and then in the actual measurement rainfall curve of the first schedule periods and in the pre- of the second schedule periods On the basis of reporting rainfall curve, determine that every grade of reservoir is adjusted second by the corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model of every grade of reservoir The section flow curve in the phase is spent, the accuracy of the section flow curve of every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods is improved.Later, base In section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods and default storage outflow range, passes through least square and method determines The Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in step reservoir, improves the accuracy of the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir.

Optionally, the actual measurement rainfall curve based on every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and in the second schedule periods It forecasts rainfall curve, determines every grade of reservoir the by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Before section flow curve in two schedule periods, further include：

Obtain reality of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that the first schedule periods include Average flow rate is surveyed, purpose reservoir is any level reservoir in the step reservoir；

History hydrological data based on pre-stored purpose reservoir and actual measurement average flow rate, determine calibration forecast parameter；

It will determine that obtained calibration forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in initialization Flood Forecasting Model, is obtained with determination Target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods.

Optionally, this method further includes：

When not determining the target Flood Forecasting Model for obtaining purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods, executes and obtain target water The step of actual measurement average flow rate of the library in the last one scheduling slot that the first schedule periods include；

When having determined that obtain target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods, to purpose reservoir Forecast parameter in target Flood Forecasting Model in one schedule periods carries out calibration, to obtain purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods Target Flood Forecasting Model forecast parameter；

Based on the pre- of target Flood Forecasting Model in the second schedule periods of initialization Flood Forecasting Model and purpose reservoir Parameter is reported, determines target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods.

Optionally, the history hydrological data based on pre-stored purpose reservoir and actual measurement average flow rate, determine that calibration is pre- Parameter is reported, including：

Obtain in the forecast parameter that initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes the restriction range of each parameter and corresponding discrete Step-length, and it is discrete with the progress of corresponding discrete steps respectively to the restriction range of each parameter, obtain the more of each parameter A centrifugal pump；

Multiple centrifugal pumps of history hydrological data and each parameter based on purpose reservoir, determine optimizing forecast parameter, And using optimizing forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in initialization Flood Forecasting Model, optimization flood forecasting mould is obtained to determine Type；

Based on optimization Flood Forecasting Model, section average flow rate of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot is determined；

It is when the difference between section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is less than default value, optimizing forecast parameter is true It is set to calibration forecast parameter；

When the difference between section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is more than the default value, each ginseng is reset Several discrete steps, and return and discrete step is carried out with corresponding discrete steps respectively to the restriction range of each parameter It suddenly, will be final until when the difference between determining obtained section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is less than the default value Determining optimizing forecast parameter is determined as calibration forecast parameter.

Optionally, multiple centrifugal pumps of the history hydrological data based on purpose reservoir and each parameter determine that optimization is pre- Parameter is reported, including：

History hydrological data based on purpose reservoir selects one by target optimum fitting method from multigroup parameter Group parameter, and one group of parameter of selection is determined as optimizing forecast parameter.

Optionally, it is based on optimization Flood Forecasting Model, determines that section of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot is flat Equal flow, including：

Obtain forecast rainfall curve of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot；

Based on the forecast rainfall curve in optimization Flood Forecasting Model and the last one scheduling slot, last is determined Section flow curve in a scheduling slot；

Determine that the section in the last one scheduling slot is average based on the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot Flow.

Optionally, the section flow curve based on every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods and default storage outflow constrain model It encloses, the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir is determined by least square and method, including：

Determine that every grade of reservoir includes in the second schedule periods based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Multiple scheduling slots in each scheduling slot section average flow rate；

The storage outflow of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot is combined, multigroup scheduling scheme is obtained, per group scheduling Scheme includes the storage outflow of every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slot；

It is flat in the storage outflow of each scheduling slot and section by every grade of reservoir under the constraints of the step reservoir The least square and method of the sum of equal flow, determine the Dispatching Flood scheme of the step reservoir from multigroup scheduling scheme.

Above-mentioned all optional technical solutions, can form the alternative embodiment of the present invention according to any combination, and the present invention is real Example is applied no longer to repeat this one by one.

Fig. 2A is a kind of flow diagram of the determination method of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention.Ginseng See Fig. 2A, this method comprises the following steps.

Step 201：Obtain in step reservoir actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and the Forecast rainfall curve in two schedule periods.

Since reservoir inflow of the reservoir after current time can be corresponding reservoir watershed in current time by the reservoir The influence of actual measurement rainfall before and the forecast rainfall after current time, therefore, for every grade in step reservoir Reservoir can obtain actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and the forecast drop in the second schedule periods Rain conditional curve.For example, when the actual measurement rainfall before current time fails to meet the reservoir watershed reservoir capacity, the reservoir The water that basin flows into corresponding reservoir depends primarily on the forecast rainfall after current time；Actual measurement drop before current time When rainfall meets the reservoir watershed reservoir capacity, which depends on before current time Actual measurement rainfall and current time after forecast rainfall.Wherein, reservoir capacity refers to the water storage of the topsoil on stratum Ability.

Wherein, due in the step reservoir there may be the corresponding reservoir watershed area of at least level-one reservoir is larger, and should At least corresponding reservoir watershed interior rainfall of level-one reservoir is unevenly distributed.Therefore, in order to improve determining Reservoir Flood The accuracy of scheduling scheme, can also at least level-one reservoir be corresponding reservoir watershed is divided at least one unit stream by this Domain.At this point it is possible to obtain actual measurement rainfall curve of the corresponding each unit basin of every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and Forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods.

Wherein, step reservoir refers to that a series of of downstream are swum over to from river or section is in stepped reservoir.First For schedule periods earlier than the second schedule periods and adjacent with the second schedule periods, the second schedule periods refer to current it needs to be determined that Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs The period of scheme.The duration of first schedule periods and the second schedule periods can be configured in advance, the duration of the first schedule periods Duration with the second schedule periods can be identical, can not also be identical, and it is not limited in the embodiment of the present invention.

Step 202：Based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and in the second schedule periods Forecast rainfall curve, determine that every grade of reservoir exists by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Section flow curve in second schedule periods.

Getting actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and pre- in the second schedule periods It, can be bent based on actual measurement rainfall of this grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods for every grade of reservoir after reporting rainfall curve Line and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, being determined by the corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model of this grade of reservoir should Section flow curve of the grade reservoir in the second schedule periods, it is bent to obtain section flow of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Line.

It should be noted that when this grade of reservoir it is corresponding it is reservoir watershed be divided at least one unit basin when, each Unit basin corresponds to a target Flood Forecasting Model.For each unit basin, the unit basin can be based on and adjusted first The actual measurement rainfall curve in the phase and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods are spent, is corresponded to by the unit basin Target Flood Forecasting Model determine section flow curve of the unit basin in the second schedule periods, and then by least one list Section flow curve of first basin in the second schedule periods is overlapped, to obtain area of this grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Between flow curve.

Further, determining every grade of reservoir in the section flow in the second schedule periods by target Flood Forecasting Model Before curve, referring to Fig. 2 B, the corresponding target flood forecasting of every grade of reservoir can be determined with 2021- steps 2023 as follows Forecast parameter in model.

This grade of water can be determined with 2021- steps 2023 as follows for any level reservoir in the step reservoir Forecast parameter in the corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model in library, that is to say, any level reservoir pair in determining the step reservoir When forecast parameter in the target Flood Forecasting Model answered, which can be determined as purpose reservoir, that is to say, mesh It is any level reservoir in the step reservoir to mark reservoir.

Step 2021：When obtaining the last one scheduling of purpose reservoir in multiple scheduling slots that the first schedule periods include Actual measurement average flow rate in section.

In order to improve the accuracy of the forecast parameter in the corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model of purpose reservoir, mesh can be obtained Mark the actual measurement average rainfall of the last one scheduling slot of the reservoir in multiple scheduling slots that the first schedule periods include.Its In, the duration of each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slot can be configured in advance, for example, each scheduling slot when Length can be 0.5 hour, 1 hour or 2 hours etc..

Step 2022：History hydrological data based on pre-stored purpose reservoir and actual measurement average flow rate, determine calibration Forecast parameter.

After getting the actual measurement average rainfall of the last one scheduling slot, specifically, it can be based on pre-stored The history hydrological data of purpose reservoir determines calibration forecast parameter with actual measurement average flow rate, in accordance with the following steps (1)-(4).

(1) obtain initialization Flood Forecasting Model include forecast parameter in each parameter restriction range and it is corresponding from It takes a walk and grows, and is discrete with the progress of corresponding discrete steps respectively to the restriction range of each parameter, obtain each parameter Multiple centrifugal pumps.

For initializing Flood Forecasting Model, can obtain in advance in the forecast parameter that initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes The restriction range of each parameter and the corresponding discrete steps of each parameter.Due to can in the corresponding restriction range of each parameter To include infinite multiple numerical value, when being calculated based on infinite multiple numerical value, operand is undoubtedly will increase, reduces operation effect Rate.Therefore, any one of the multiple parameters for including for forecast parameter parameter can be based on the corresponding discrete step of this parameter It is long, it is discrete to the restriction range progress of this parameter, to obtain the corresponding multiple centrifugal pumps of this parameter.For the multiple parameters In its remainder parameter, can also carry out such as above-mentioned discrete method discrete, be corresponded to obtain in the multiple parameters each parameter Multiple centrifugal pumps.

Wherein, the forecast parameter that initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes may include that Free water reservoir capacity area distributions are bent Linear index, free-water sluice reservoir to underground water day outflow constant, free-water sluice reservoir to interflow day outflow constant, underground Water coefficient of extinction, interflow coefficient of extinction, surface runoff coefficient of extinction, water storage in channel network coefficient of extinction, section segments and flow Specific gravity factor, due to free-water sluice reservoir to underground water day outflow constant and free-water sluice reservoir to the sunrise stream system of interflow Number the sum of be definite value, therefore, as long as determine free-water sluice reservoir to underground water day outflow constant and free-water sluice reservoir to earth Day any of the outflow constant of middle stream.

Wherein, the restriction range of Free water reservoir capacity area distributions exponent can be 1.0~1.5, it is corresponding from Stroll length can be the first default step-length；Free-water sluice reservoir to underground water day outflow constant restriction range can be 0~ 0.8, corresponding discrete steps can be the second default step-length；The restriction range of ground water depletion coefficient can be 0.950~ 0.998, corresponding discrete steps can be third default step-length；The restriction range of interflow coefficient of extinction can be 0~0.9, Corresponding step-length can be the 4th default step-length；The corresponding restriction range of flow specific gravity factor can be -1~1, corresponding discrete Step-length can be the 5th default step-length.First default step-length, the second default step-length, third default step-length, the 4th default step-length, Five default step-lengths can be configured in advance, for example, the first default step-length can be 0.05 or 0.1 etc., the second default step-length Can be 0.05 or 0.1 etc., third default step-length can be 0.005 or 0.01 etc., and the 4th default step-length can be 0.02,0.05 Or 0.1 etc., the 5th default step-length can be 0.05,0.1 or 0.2 etc..

Wherein, the restriction range for surface runoff coefficient of extinction and corresponding discrete steps, water storage in channel network coefficient of extinction Restriction range and corresponding discrete steps and section segments restriction range and corresponding discrete steps, can be based on The prior art determines the initial value of surface runoff coefficient of extinction, water storage in channel network coefficient of extinction and section segments respectively in advance, into And determine that the initial value corresponds to the restriction range and discrete steps of parameter based on each initial value.For example, being based on the prior art The initial value of determining section segments is 8, then the restriction range that can be preset as section segments by 5~11, section segmentation Several discrete steps can be preset as 0.1,0.2 or 0.5 etc., and the embodiment of the present invention is not construed as limiting this.

(2) multiple centrifugal pumps of the history hydrological data based on purpose reservoir and each parameter determine that optimizing forecast is joined Number, and using optimizing forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in initialization Flood Forecasting Model, optimization flood forecasting is obtained to determine Model.

Specifically, multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter are combined to obtain multigroup parameter, every group of parameter includes each ginseng A several centrifugal pumps.And then the history hydrological data based on purpose reservoir, by target optimum fitting method, from multigroup parameter In select one group of parameter, and one group of parameter of selection is determined as optimizing forecast parameter.Later, flood forecasting mould will be initialized Forecast parameter in type replaces with optimizing forecast parameter, to obtain optimization Flood Forecasting Model.

Wherein, for the determination of optimizing forecast parameter, after to each parameter discrete, each parameter correspondence can be obtained Multiple discrete values can be in order to select one group of parameter forecast parameter as an optimization from multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter Multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter are combined, to obtain multigroup parameter.For any group of parameter in multigroup parameter, Using this group of parameter as the forecast parameter of initialization forecasting model, later, in more floods for including based on history hydrological data The corresponding forecast rainfall curve of every flood determines the corresponding section flow curve of every flood.Every group of parameter is corresponded to More floods in every flood section rainfall curve and the history hydrological data corresponding reality of every flood that includes Rainfall curve is surveyed, the mistake between the section rainfall of the more floods at every point of time and actual measurement rainfall can be passed through Any mesh in poor sum-of-squares criterion, Error Absolute Value and criterion, deterministic coefficient criterion and flood peak forecast qualification rate criterion etc. Scalar functions, from being selected in multigroup parameter, the section flow curve of every flood and measured discharge curve in the more floods are quasi- Corresponding one group of parameter when closing best, and one group of parameter of selection is determined as optimizing forecast parameter.

(3) it is based on optimization Flood Forecasting Model, determines section mean flow of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot Amount.

Specifically, forecast rainfall curve of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot is obtained；Based on optimization flood Forecast rainfall curve in water forecasting model and the last one scheduling slot, determines the section in the last one scheduling slot Flow curve；Determine that the section in the last one scheduling slot is average based on the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot Flow.

It wherein, can be with base after getting forecast rainfall curve of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot It is pre- by the corresponding optimization flood of purpose reservoir in forecast rainfall curve of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot Report model determines the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot.Later, in one possible implementation, it can incite somebody to action The section flow at all time points carries out addition summation in the last one scheduling slot, and by the section flow at all time points And the ratio between all time point numbers is determined as the section average flow rate in the last one scheduling slot.Certainly, may be used also The integral quadratured with the section flow to the last one scheduling slot, and then will acquired in the last one scheduling slot Ratio between the duration of the last one scheduling slot is determined as the section average flow rate in the last one scheduling slot, this hair Bright embodiment does not limit this.

(4) when the difference between section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is less than default value, optimizing forecast is joined Number is determined as calibration forecast parameter.When the difference between section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is more than default value, weight The discrete steps of each parameter of new settings, and return to the restriction range of each parameter respectively with corresponding discrete steps into The discrete step of row, until determining that the difference between obtained section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is less than default value When, the optimizing forecast parameter that will eventually determine is determined as calibration forecast parameter.

Wherein, default value can be configured in advance, for example, the default value can be 20 cubic metres per hour, 30 Cubic meter per hour or 50 cubic metres per hour.

Step 2023：Obtained calibration forecast parameter will be determined as the forecast parameter initialized in Flood Forecasting Model, Target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods is obtained with determination.

After calibration forecast parameter is determined, the forecast parameter initialized in Flood Forecasting Model can be replaced with determination Obtained calibration parameter, and then obtain target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods.

It should be noted that when not determining the target Flood Forecasting Model for obtaining purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods, The step of actual measurement average flow rate of the acquisition purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot that the first schedule periods include can be executed, And then 2022- steps 2023 determine target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods through the above steps.

It further, can be with when having determined that obtain target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods Calibration is carried out to the forecast parameter in target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods, to obtain purpose reservoir The forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model in the second schedule periods.Later, initialization Flood Forecasting Model and target are based on The forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model of the reservoir in the second schedule periods, determines mesh of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods Mark Flood Forecasting Model.

Specifically, the forecast of the last one scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that the first schedule periods include can be obtained Rainfall curve and actual measurement average flow rate, to which the forecast rainfall curve and first based on the last one scheduling slot is adjusted The target Flood Forecasting Model in the phase is spent, determines the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot, and then determine target water Section average flow rate of the library in the last one scheduling slot.When in the last one scheduling slot section average flow rate with actual measurement It, can be by target flood forecasting mould of the purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods when difference between average flow rate is less than default value Forecast parameter in type is determined as the forecast parameter of the target Flood Forecasting Model in the second schedule periods.Later, by initialization flood Forecast parameter in water forecasting model replaces with the forecast parameter of the target Flood Forecasting Model in the second schedule periods, to obtain mesh Mark target Flood Forecasting Model of the reservoir in the second schedule periods.When the section average flow rate and reality in the last one scheduling slot When the difference surveyed between average flow rate is less than default value, then it can be determined based on above-mentioned steps 2021- steps 2023 and obtain mesh Mark target Flood Forecasting Model of the reservoir in the second schedule periods.

Wherein, the target flood in forecast rainfall curve and the first schedule periods based on the last one scheduling slot is pre- Model is reported, determines the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot, and then determines purpose reservoir when the last one is dispatched The specific implementation process of section average flow rate in section can be based on optimization Flood Forecasting Model with (3) in above-mentioned steps 2022 Forecast rainfall curve in the last one scheduling slot, determines the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot, And then the section average flow rate in the last one scheduling slot is determined based on the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot Determination method it is similar, the embodiment of the present invention no longer elaborates.

After target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods is determined, it can be existed based on every grade of reservoir Section flow curve in second schedule periods and default storage outflow restriction range determine the step water by least square and method The Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in library can specifically be realized with 203- steps 206 in accordance with the following steps.

Step 203：Determine that every grade of reservoir is adjusted second based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods The section average flow rate of each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that the phase of spending includes.

When determining the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir, in order to avoid every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods in any tune The storage outflow for spending the moment changes, and the scheduling scheme so as to cause this grade of reservoir changes, thus give staff with It is inconvenient to come, and reduces the Dispatching Flood efficiency of every grade of reservoir.It therefore, can be by the second schedule periods according to each in the first schedule periods The duration of scheduling slot is divided into multiple scheduling slots.Later, it can be flowed based on section of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Curve is measured, determines the section mean flow of each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that this grade of reservoir includes in the second schedule periods Amount.

Wherein, the section flow curve based on every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods determines this grade of reservoir in the second scheduling The section mean flow method for determination of amount of each scheduling slot in the multiple scheduling slots for including in phase, can be with above-mentioned steps The section in the last one scheduling slot is determined based on the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot in (3) in 2023 Mean flow method for determination of amount is same or similar, and the embodiment of the present invention no longer elaborates.

Step 204：It is discrete to the default storage outflow range progress of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot, it obtains multiple Storage outflow.

It specifically, can be with for each scheduling slot of certain level-one reservoir in the second schedule periods in the step reservoir It is discrete with the corresponding discrete steps progress of this grade of reservoir to the default storage outflow range of this grade of reservoir, and then obtain this grade of reservoir In the corresponding multiple storage outflows of each scheduling slot.For remaining reservoir in the step reservoir, it can pass through above-mentioned side Method default storage outflow range corresponding to every grade of reservoir to each scheduling slot of every grade of reservoir in remaining reservoir carry out from It dissipates, to obtain every grade of reservoir corresponding multiple storage outflows in each scheduling slot.

Wherein, it is advance can be based on the corresponding history hydrological data of every grade of reservoir for the default storage outflow range of every grade of reservoir Be configured, for example, in the step reservoir the default storage outflow range of every grade of reservoir can be 500~1500 cubic metres/it is small When, the corresponding discrete steps of every grade of reservoir can be set in advance as 50 cubes ms/h or 100 cubes ms/h, certainly, should The corresponding storage outflow range of every grade of reservoir and discrete steps can be different in step reservoir, and the embodiment of the present invention does not make this It limits.

It should be noted that when carrying out discrete to the default storage outflow range in each scheduling slot, it can also be with not With discrete steps the storage outflow range of each scheduling slot is carried out respectively it is discrete, to obtain every grade of reservoir in each tune Spend period corresponding multiple storage outflows.

Step 205：The storage outflow of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot is combined, multigroup scheduling scheme is obtained.

To every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot default storage outflow range carry out it is discrete after, when due to each scheduling The storage outflow of section is different, and the flood forecast scheme of every grade of obtained reservoir also differs.Therefore, in order to ensure all In the case of every grade of reservoir flood forecast scheme it is comprehensive, can be discrete in each scheduling slot to every grade of reservoir The multiple storage outflows arrived carry out random combine, to obtain the corresponding multigroup scheduling scheme of the step reservoir.

Wherein, include the outbound stream of every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slot per group scheduling scheme Amount, that is to say, include the scheduling scheme of every grade of reservoir per group scheduling scheme, the scheduling scheme of every grade of reservoir includes that every grade of reservoir exists A storage outflow in each scheduling slot.

Step 206：Under the constraints of the step reservoir, by every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot storage outflow With the least square and method of the sum of section average flow rate, the Dispatching Flood side of the step reservoir is determined from multigroup scheduling scheme Case.

After the corresponding multigroup scheduling scheme of the step reservoir is determined, the corresponding constraint item of the step reservoir can be obtained Part.Later, for multigroup scheduling scheme, under the limitation of the constraints, by every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot Storage outflow and section average flow rate sum, later, the minimum based on the sum of storage outflow and section average flow rate is flat Side and method determine the Dispatching Flood scheme of the step reservoir from multigroup scheduling scheme.Wherein, the step reservoir is corresponding about Beam condition can be stored in advance.

Wherein, to that, per group scheduling scheme, can determine that every grade of reservoir exists by following formula (1) in multigroup scheduling scheme The quadratic sum of the storage outflow and the sum of section average flow rate of each scheduling slot, and then in following formula (2), formula (3), public affairs Formula (4), formula (5), formula (6), formula (7) and formula (8) restrict under, from the corresponding quadratic sum of every group scheduling scheme Corresponding group scheduling scheme when middle selection quadratic sum minimum, and this group scheduling scheme is determined as to the flood of the step reservoir Scheduling scheme.

q_j,i≤Q_j,i (4)

Q_j+1,i+1=c₀×Q`_j+1,i+c₁×Q`_j,i+c₂×Q_j,i+1 (6)

Q`_j+1,i=q_j+1,i+ΔQ_j+1,i+1 (7)

Q`_j,i=q_j,i+ΔQ_j,i+1 (8)

Wherein, in above-mentioned formula (1), M refers to the number of scheduling slot in the second schedule periods, and n refers to the step reservoir The series of middle reservoir, j refer to j-th of scheduling slot in the second schedule periods, and i grades refer to the i-stage reservoir in the step reservoir, q_j,iLibrary refer in the step reservoir i-stage reservoir in the storage outflow of j-th of scheduling slot, Δ Q_j,i+1Flat refers to the step water Section average flow rate of the i+1 grade reservoir in j-th of scheduling slot in library；In above-mentioned formula (2), M refers to the second schedule periods The number of interior scheduling slot, t_dRefer to the termination time point of the second schedule periods, t₀Refer to the start time point of the second schedule periods, Δ t It refer to the duration of each scheduling slot in the second schedule periods；In above-mentioned formula (3), V_{Flood control}It refer to the corresponding flood control of every grade of reservoir Storage capacity, Q_j,iRefer to that i-stage reservoir is in the storage average flow rate of j-th of scheduling slot in the step reservoir, remaining parameter meaning is such as The meaning of relevant parameter in above-mentioned formula (1)；In above-mentioned formula (4), relevant parameter in each parameter meaning such as above-mentioned formula (3) Meaning；In above-mentioned formula (5), Q`_j+1,iRefer in the step reservoir i-stage reservoir in the storage of+1 scheduling slot of jth Average flow rate, q_j+1,iRefer to that for i-stage reservoir in the outbound average flow rate of+1 scheduling slot of jth, remaining is each in the step reservoir The meaning of relevant parameter in parameter meaning such as above-mentioned formula (3)；In above-mentioned formula (6), Q_j+1,i+1Refer in the step reservoir I+1 grade reservoir is in the storage average flow rate of+1 scheduling slot of jth, Q`_j+1,iRefer in the step reservoir i-stage reservoir Total propagation flow of j+1 scheduling slot, Q`_j,iRefer in the step reservoir i-stage reservoir in total biography of j-th of scheduling slot Broadcast flow, Q_j,i+1Refer in the step reservoir i+1 grade reservoir in the storage average flow rate of j-th of scheduling slot, c₀、c₁And c₂ Each mean the constant in the step reservoir Muskingum formula；In above-mentioned formula (7), Δ Q_j+1,i+1Refer in the step reservoir I+1 grade reservoir+1 scheduling slot of jth section average flow rate, it is corresponding in remaining each parameter meaning such as above-mentioned formula (5) The meaning of parameter；In above-mentioned formula (8), the meaning of relevant parameter in each parameter meaning such as above-mentioned formula (1) and above-mentioned formula (5) Justice.

It should be noted that in the constraints based on the step reservoir, by least square and method from multigroup scheduling It can also include the work feelings letter of every grade of reservoir when determining the Dispatching Flood scheme of the step reservoir in scheme, in the constraints Breath.Wherein, which refers to the instantaneous operating conditions of all kinds of flood control works main bodys of every grade of reservoir, such as reservoir dyke work The breach of Cheng Fasheng is overflowed, the flood controls real time comprehensive information such as loophole.

Further, the Dispatching Flood of the current time step reservoir is determined in 201- steps 206 through the above steps After scheme, at this point, the corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model of every grade of reservoir is also by above-mentioned steps 2021- steps in the second schedule periods 2023 are determined.Later, in order to avoid the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods changes, so as to cause working as The preceding time determines that the accuracy rate of the Dispatching Flood scheme of the step reservoir reduces, and can be repeated in real time or every preset duration Above-mentioned steps 201- steps 206, in real time or every preset duration, to update the Dispatching Flood scheme of the step reservoir, improving should Accuracy of the step reservoir in the corresponding Dispatching Flood scheme of current time.Wherein, which can be configured in advance, For example, the preset duration can be 5 minutes, 10 minutes or 20 minutes etc., it is not limited in the embodiment of the present invention.

In the embodiment of the present invention, based on the history hydrological data of every grade of reservoir, on the basis of initialization Flood Forecasting Model On, the corresponding optimization Flood Forecasting Model of every grade of reservoir is determined by optimum fitting method.And then in the first scheduling acquired When the forecast rainfall and actual measurement average flow rate of the last one scheduling slot in the phase, to the optimization in optimization Flood Forecasting Model Forecast parameter carries out calibration, so that it is determined that corresponding target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods, to carry The accuracy of high target Flood Forecasting Model operation.Later, actual measurement rainfall of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods can be obtained Conditional curve and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, and then pass through the corresponding target flood forecasting of every grade of reservoir Model determines section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods, every in the second schedule periods with every grade of reservoir of determination The section average flow rate of a scheduling slot.Later, by every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot based on every grade of reservoir second The default storage outflow range of each scheduling slot is carried out discrete and is combined in schedule periods, to obtain every grade of water in the step reservoir Multiple scheduling schemes of the library in the second schedule periods improve the comprehensive of every grade of Reservoir Operation Scheme.In the step reservoir Under constraints, summed by the storage outflow and section average flow rate to every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot, later, Based on the least square and method of the sum of storage outflow and section average flow rate, the step reservoir is determined from multigroup scheduling scheme Dispatching Flood scheme, improve the accuracy of the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir.

Fig. 3 A are a kind of structural schematic diagrams of the determining device of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention.Ginseng See Fig. 3 A, which includes：

First acquisition module 301, for obtaining actual measurement rainfall of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods in step reservoir Journey curve and the forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, the first schedule periods are dispatched earlier than the second schedule periods and with second Phase is adjacent, and the second schedule periods refer to currently it needs to be determined that the period of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme；

First determining module 302, for based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and Forecast rainfall curve in second schedule periods, it is true by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods Fixed section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods；

Second determining module 303, for setting out based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods and in advance Library traffic constraints range determines the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir by least square and method.

Optionally, referring to Fig. 3 B, which further includes：

Second acquisition module 304, for obtaining purpose reservoir in multiple scheduling slots that the first schedule periods are included most Actual measurement average flow rate in the latter scheduling slot, purpose reservoir are any level reservoir in the step reservoir；

Third determining module 305, for history hydrological data and actual measurement mean flow based on pre-stored purpose reservoir Amount, determines calibration forecast parameter；

4th determining module 306, the calibration forecast parameter for that will determine is as in initialization Flood Forecasting Model Forecast parameter, with determination obtain target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods.

Optionally, referring to Fig. 3 C, which further includes：

First trigger module 307, for that ought not determine the target flood forecasting for obtaining purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods When model, the step for obtaining actual measurement average flow rate of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot that the first schedule periods include is executed Suddenly；

Second trigger module 308 has determined that obtain target flood forecasting of the purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods for working as When model, calibration is carried out to the forecast parameter in target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the first schedule periods, to obtain The forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods；

5th determining module 309 is used for based on initialization Flood Forecasting Model and purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods The forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model determines target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in the second schedule periods.

Optionally, referring to Fig. 3 D, third determining module 305 includes：

First discrete unit 3051, for obtaining each parameter in the forecast parameter that initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes Restriction range and corresponding discrete steps, and to the restriction range of each parameter respectively with corresponding discrete steps carry out from It dissipates, obtains multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter；

First determination unit 3052, for based on purpose reservoir history hydrological data and each parameter it is multiple from Value is dissipated, optimizing forecast parameter is determined, and using optimizing forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in initialization Flood Forecasting Model, with true Surely optimization Flood Forecasting Model is obtained；

Second determination unit 3053, for based on optimization Flood Forecasting Model, determining purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling Section average flow rate in period；

First trigger element 3054, for being less than present count when the difference between section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate When value, optimizing forecast parameter is determined as calibration forecast parameter；

Second trigger element 3055, for being preset more than this when the difference between section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate When numerical value, the discrete steps of each parameter are reset, and return to the restriction range of each parameter respectively with corresponding Discrete steps carry out discrete step, until determining that the difference between obtained section average flow rate and actual measurement average flow rate is less than When the default value, the optimizing forecast parameter that will eventually determine is determined as calibration forecast parameter.

Optionally, the first determination unit 3052 is mainly used for：

Optionally, the second determination unit 3053 is mainly used for：

Optionally, referring to Fig. 3 E, the second determining module 303 includes：

Third determination unit 3031, for determining every grade based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in the second schedule periods The section average flow rate of reservoir each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that the second schedule periods include；

Second discrete unit 3032, for being carried out to the default storage outflow range of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot It is discrete, obtain multiple storage outflows；

Assembled unit 3033 is combined for the storage outflow to every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot, obtains multigroup Scheduling scheme includes the storage outflow of every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slot per group scheduling scheme；

4th determination unit 3034 is used under the constraints of the step reservoir, by every grade of reservoir in each scheduling The storage outflow of period and the least square and method of the sum of section average flow rate determine the step water from multigroup scheduling scheme The Dispatching Flood scheme in library.

It should be noted that：The determining device for the Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme that above-described embodiment provides is in the flood for determining reservoir When water scheduling scheme, only the example of the division of the above functional modules, in practical application, can as needed and incite somebody to action Above-mentioned function distribution is completed by different function modules, i.e., the internal structure of equipment is divided into different function modules, with complete At all or part of function described above.In addition, the determining device for the Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme that above-described embodiment provides Belonging to same design with the determination embodiment of the method for Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme, specific implementation process refers to embodiment of the method, Which is not described herein again.

Fig. 4 shows the structure diagram for the terminal 400 that an illustrative embodiment of the invention provides.Referring to Fig. 4, the terminal 400 can be：Smart mobile phone, tablet computer, laptop or desktop computer.Terminal 400 be also possible to be referred to as user equipment, Other titles such as portable terminal, laptop terminal, terminal console.Referring to Fig. 4, terminal 400 may include processor 401 and deposit Reservoir 402.

Processor 401 may include one or more processing cores, such as 4 core processors, 8 core processors etc..Place DSP (Digital Signal Processing, Digital Signal Processing), FPGA (Field- may be used in reason device 401 Programmable Gate Array, field programmable gate array), PLA (Programmable Logic Array, may be programmed Logic array) at least one of example, in hardware realize.Processor 401 can also include primary processor and coprocessor, master Processor is the processor for being handled data in the awake state, also referred to as CPU (Central Processing Unit, central processing unit)；Coprocessor is the low power processor for being handled data in the standby state. In some embodiments, processor 401 can be integrated with GPU (Graphics Processing Unit, image processor), GPU is used to be responsible for the rendering and drafting of content to be shown needed for display screen.In some embodiments, processor 401 can also wrap AI (Artificial Intelligence, artificial intelligence) processor is included, the AI processors are for handling related machine learning Calculating operation.

Memory 402 may include one or more computer readable storage mediums, which can To be non-transient.Memory 402 may also include high-speed random access memory and nonvolatile memory, such as one Or multiple disk storage equipments, flash memory device.In some embodiments, the non-transient computer in memory 402 can Storage medium is read for storing at least one instruction, at least one instruction is for performed to realize this Shen by processor 401 Please in embodiment of the method provide a kind of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme determination method.

In some embodiments, terminal 400 is also optional includes：Peripheral device interface 403 and at least one peripheral equipment. It can be connected by bus or signal wire between processor 401, memory 402 and peripheral device interface 403.Each peripheral equipment It can be connected with peripheral device interface 403 by bus, signal wire or circuit board.Specifically, peripheral equipment includes：Radio circuit 404, at least one of display screen 405, positioning component 406 and power supply 407.

Peripheral device interface 403 can be used for I/O (Input/Output, input/output) is relevant at least one outer Peripheral equipment is connected to processor 401 and memory 402.In some embodiments, processor 401, memory 402 and peripheral equipment Interface 403 is integrated on same chip or circuit board；In some other embodiments, processor 401, memory 402 and outer Any one or two in peripheral equipment interface 403 can realize on individual chip or circuit board, the present embodiment to this not It is limited.

Radio circuit 404 is for receiving and emitting RF (Radio Frequency, radio frequency) signal, also referred to as electromagnetic signal.It penetrates Frequency circuit 404 is communicated by electromagnetic signal with communication network and other communication equipments.Radio circuit 404 turns electric signal It is changed to electromagnetic signal to be sent, alternatively, the electromagnetic signal received is converted to electric signal.Optionally, radio circuit 404 wraps It includes：Antenna system, RF transceivers, one or more amplifiers, tuner, oscillator, digital signal processor, codec chip Group, user identity module card etc..Radio circuit 404 can be carried out by least one wireless communication protocol with other terminals Communication.The wireless communication protocol includes but not limited to：WWW, Metropolitan Area Network (MAN), Intranet, each third generation mobile communication network (2G, 3G, 4G and 5G), WLAN and/or WiFi (Wireless Fidelity, Wireless Fidelity) network.In some embodiments, it penetrates Frequency circuit 404 can also include the related circuits of NFC (Near Field Communication, wireless near field communication), this Application is not limited this.

Display screen 405 is for showing UI (User Interface, user interface).The UI may include figure, text, figure Mark, video and its their arbitrary combination.When display screen 405 is display screen, display screen 405 also has acquisition in display screen The ability of 405 surface or the touch signal of surface.The touch signal can be used as control signal to be input to processor 401 It is handled.At this point, display screen 405 can be also used for providing virtual push button and/or dummy keyboard, also referred to as soft button and/or soft Keyboard.In some embodiments, display screen 405 can be one, and the front panel of terminal 400 is arranged；In further embodiments, Display screen 405 can be at least two, be separately positioned on the different surfaces of terminal 400 or in foldover design；In still other implementation Example in, display screen 405 can be flexible display screen, be arranged on the curved surface of terminal 400 or fold plane on.Even, it shows Screen 405 can also be arranged to non-rectangle irregular figure, namely abnormity screen.LCD (Liquid may be used in display screen 405 Crystal Display, liquid crystal display), OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode, Organic Light Emitting Diode) Etc. materials prepare.

Positioning component 406 is used for the current geographic position of positioning terminal 400, to realize navigation or LBS (Location Based Service, location based service).Positioning component 406 can be the GPS (Global based on the U.S. Positioning System, global positioning system), China dipper system or Russia Galileo system positioning group Part.

Power supply 407 is used to be powered for the various components in terminal 400.Power supply 407 can be alternating current, direct current, Disposable battery or rechargeable battery.When power supply 407 includes rechargeable battery, which can be wired charging electricity Pond or wireless charging battery.Wired charging battery is the battery to be charged by Wireline, and wireless charging battery is by wireless The battery of coil charges.The rechargeable battery can be also used for supporting fast charge technology.

It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the restriction of the not structure paired terminal 400 of structure shown in Fig. 4, can wrap It includes than illustrating more or fewer components, either combine certain components or is arranged using different components.

In the above-described embodiments, it includes the non-transient computer readable storage medium instructed, the meter to additionally provide a kind of Calculation machine readable storage medium storing program for executing for storing at least one instruction, at least one instruction for performed by processor with realization The method that the offer of Fig. 1, Fig. 2A or Fig. 2 B illustrated embodiments is provided.

One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that realizing that all or part of step of above-described embodiment can pass through hardware It completes, relevant hardware can also be instructed to complete by program, the program can be stored in a kind of computer-readable In storage medium, storage medium mentioned above can be read-only memory, disk or CD etc..

The foregoing is merely presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, it is all the present invention spirit and Within principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. a kind of determination method of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme, which is characterized in that the method includes：

Obtain in step reservoir actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and in the second schedule periods Forecast that rainfall curve, first schedule periods are described earlier than second schedule periods and adjacent with second schedule periods Second schedule periods refer to currently it needs to be determined that the period of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme；

Based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in first schedule periods and pre- in second schedule periods Rainfall curve is reported, determines that every grade of reservoir exists by target Flood Forecasting Model of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods Section flow curve in second schedule periods；

Based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods and default storage outflow restriction range, by most Small square and method determine the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir.

2. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the reality based on every grade of reservoir in first schedule periods Rainfall curve and the forecast rainfall curve in second schedule periods are surveyed, is adjusted described second by every grade of reservoir Before the target Flood Forecasting Model spent in the phase determines section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods, also wrap It includes：

Obtain reality of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot in multiple scheduling slots that first schedule periods include Average flow rate is surveyed, the purpose reservoir is any level reservoir in the step reservoir；

History hydrological data based on the pre-stored purpose reservoir and the actual measurement average flow rate determine calibration forecast ginseng Number；

Obtained calibration forecast parameter will be determined as the forecast parameter in initialization Flood Forecasting Model, described in determining obtain Target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods.

3. method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that the method further includes：

When not determining the target Flood Forecasting Model for obtaining the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods, executes and obtain institute The step of stating actual measurement average flow rate of the purpose reservoir in the last one scheduling slot that first schedule periods include；

When having determined that obtain target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in first schedule periods, to the target Forecast parameter in target Flood Forecasting Model of the reservoir in first schedule periods carries out calibration, to obtain the target water The forecast parameter of target Flood Forecasting Model of the library in second schedule periods；

Target flood forecasting based on the initialization Flood Forecasting Model and the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods The forecast parameter of model determines target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods.

4. method as claimed in claim 2 or claim 3, which is characterized in that the going through based on the pre-stored purpose reservoir History hydrological data and the actual measurement average flow rate, determine calibration forecast parameter, including：

Obtain in the forecast parameter that the initialization Flood Forecasting Model includes the restriction range of each parameter and corresponding discrete Step-length, and it is discrete with the progress of corresponding discrete steps respectively to the restriction range of each parameter, obtain the more of each parameter A centrifugal pump；

Multiple centrifugal pumps of history hydrological data and each parameter based on the purpose reservoir, determine optimizing forecast parameter, And using the optimizing forecast parameter as the forecast parameter in the initialization Flood Forecasting Model, optimization flood is obtained to determine Forecasting model；

Based on the optimization Flood Forecasting Model, determine that section of the purpose reservoir in the last one described scheduling slot is flat Equal flow；

It is when the difference between the section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate is less than default value, the optimization is pre- Report parameter is determined as the calibration forecast parameter；

When the difference between the section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate is more than the default value, reset The discrete steps of each parameter, and return discrete with the progress of corresponding discrete steps respectively to the restriction range of each parameter The step of, until determining that the difference between obtained section average flow rate and the actual measurement average flow rate is less than the default value When, the optimizing forecast parameter that will eventually determine is determined as the calibration forecast parameter.

5. method as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that the history hydrological data based on the purpose reservoir, with And multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter, determine optimizing forecast parameter, including：

Multiple centrifugal pumps of each parameter are combined to obtain multigroup parameter, every group of parameter includes that one of each parameter is discrete Value；

History hydrological data based on the purpose reservoir is selected by target optimum fitting method from multigroup parameter One group of parameter, and one group of parameter of selection is determined as the optimizing forecast parameter.

6. method as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that it is described be based on the optimization Flood Forecasting Model, determine described in Section average flow rate of the purpose reservoir in the last one described scheduling slot, including：

Based on the forecast rainfall curve in the optimization Flood Forecasting Model and the last one described scheduling slot, institute is determined State the section flow curve in the last one scheduling slot；

The section in the last one described scheduling slot is determined based on the section flow curve in the last one described scheduling slot Average flow rate.

7. the method as described in claim 1-3,5-6 is any, which is characterized in that described to be adjusted described second based on every grade of reservoir The section flow curve in the phase and default storage outflow restriction range are spent, is determined in the step reservoir by least square and method The Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir, including：

Determine every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods based on section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods Including multiple scheduling slots in each scheduling slot section average flow rate；

It is discrete to the default storage outflow range progress of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot, obtain multiple storage outflows；

The storage outflow of every grade of reservoir in each scheduling slot is combined, multigroup scheduling scheme is obtained, per group scheduling scheme Include the storage outflow of every grade of reservoir each scheduling slot in the multiple scheduling slot；

It is average in the storage outflow of each scheduling slot and section by every grade of reservoir under the constraints of the step reservoir The least square and method of the sum of flow determine the Dispatching Flood scheme of the step reservoir from multigroup scheduling scheme.

8. a kind of determining device of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme, which is characterized in that described device includes：

First acquisition module, for obtain in step reservoir actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in the first schedule periods and Forecast rainfall curve in the second schedule periods, first schedule periods are earlier than second schedule periods and with described second Schedule periods are adjacent, and second schedule periods refer to currently it needs to be determined that the period of Flood Dispatching On Reservoirs scheme；

First determining module, for based on actual measurement rainfall curve of the every grade of reservoir in first schedule periods and described Forecast rainfall curve in second schedule periods passes through target flood forecasting mould of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods Type determines section flow curve of the every grade of reservoir in second schedule periods；

Second determining module is used for the section flow curve in second schedule periods and default outbound stream based on every grade of reservoir Restriction range is measured, the Dispatching Flood scheme of every grade of reservoir in the step reservoir is determined by least square and method.

9. device as claimed in claim 8, which is characterized in that described device further includes：

Second acquisition module, for obtaining last in multiple scheduling slots that first schedule periods include of purpose reservoir Actual measurement average flow rate in a scheduling slot, the purpose reservoir are any level reservoir in the step reservoir；

Third determining module is used for the history hydrological data based on the pre-stored purpose reservoir and the actual measurement mean flow Amount, determines calibration forecast parameter；

4th determining module, the calibration forecast parameter for that will determine is as the forecast ginseng in initialization Flood Forecasting Model Number obtains target Flood Forecasting Model of the purpose reservoir in second schedule periods with determination.

10. a kind of computer readable storage medium, which is characterized in that computer program is stored in the storage medium, it is described Claim 1-7 any methods are realized when computer program is executed by processor.