CN109934486A - A method of extracting the differentiation of multipotency stream load nargin and its interaction feature in faults coupling communication process - Google Patents
A method of extracting the differentiation of multipotency stream load nargin and its interaction feature in faults coupling communication process Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Invention describes a kind of methods of the differentiation of multipotency stream load nargin and its interaction feature in extraction faults coupling communication process, belong to integrated energy system safety analysis field.The following steps are included: firstly, the transfer process based on Markov process analysis multipotency stream cascading failure, generates failure across that can flow the total system state space propagated, obtains transfer matrix accordingly, and solve the load margin of each limiting condition；Secondly, the state change based on Markov process analysis under the change in topology and faults coupling propagation under faults coupling propagation, obtains the Markov chain of load margin loss；Finally, the interbehavior in analysis integrated Energy Load nargin evolution process, extracts the differentiation of comprehensive energy load margin and its interaction feature in faults coupling communication process.The present invention is adapted to energy source interconnection development trend, provides theory support for the construction and operation of current and future integrated energy system.
Description
Technical field
It is developed the present invention relates to multipotency stream load nargin in a kind of extraction faults coupling communication process and its interaction feature
Method belongs to integrated energy system safety analysis field.
Background technique
Integrated energy system is the product that multiple-energy-source net is merged with internet deep, it is intended to electric by construction, hot, cold gentle
Etc. various energy resources form and supply, transmission, the distribution and using system deposited, promote the comprehensive utilization ratio of various energy resources, be to realize
The key of China's future source of energy revolution target.Compared to traditional electric power networks, energy internet in production capacity, with energy, energy storage, energy
Great changes all have occurred in amount transmission and energy conversion etc..The access of high proportion renewable energy, emerging energy storage device
The appearance and electric system, natural gas system, heating system and friendship of the novel loads such as a wide range of use, heat pump and electric car
The factors such as cross interconnected of the multi-energy systems such as way system, so that the operation of integrated energy system increases with the complexity controlled
By force, to each energy resource system it is reliable, safe operation more stringent requirements are proposed.At this stage, it needs to carry out integrated energy system wind
The research of dangerous modeling analysis, risk assessment and control etc. lays the foundation for the large-scale engineering practice of energy internet.
Multipotency stream complex network may cause the collapse of part or whole system, system due to cascading failure when under attack
Power flow transfer caused by middle individual component failure and to reallocate be basic reason that cascading failure is generated and propagated, therefore can be from
The fragility of network topology angle research multipotency flow structure is by the Small-world Topological Model of Chinese of theoretical basis of complex network science
A kind of effective tool.
It is current the present invention is directed to inquire into the problem in science such as integrated energy system Reliability modeling, risk analysis and control
And the construction and operation of the following integrated energy system provide theory support and Technical Reference, the present invention, which analyzes, considers that faults coupling passes
Change in topology and state change during broadcasting obtain load margin and develop interaction characteristic；Analyze it is heterogeneous can spread it is defeated and production
Influence of the link to EH topology and operating status, is considered different mass-energy stream event of failure correlation, is built based on Markov process
The transfer process of vertical multipotency stream cascading failure, and failure is generated across the total system state space propagated can be flowed, it is shifted accordingly
Matrix, and solve the load margin of each limiting condition.
Summary of the invention
The present invention adopts the following technical scheme: in a kind of extraction faults coupling communication process multipotency stream load nargin develop and
The method of its interaction feature, this method comprises the following steps:
Step 1: the transfer process based on Markov process analysis multipotency stream cascading failure generates failure across can flow propagation
Total system state space, obtain transfer matrix accordingly, and solve the load margin of each limiting condition；
Step 2: based on change in topology and faults coupling propagation of the Markov process analysis under faults coupling propagation
Under state change, obtain load margin loss Markov chain；
Step 3: the interbehavior in analysis integrated Energy Load nargin evolution process extracts in faults coupling communication process
Comprehensive energy load margin develops and its interaction feature.
Detailed description of the invention
Attached drawing 1 is a kind of integrated energy system load margin method for solving based in faults coupling communication process of the present invention
Whole implementation flow chart.
Specific embodiment
To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, embodiment of the present invention is made below further
Ground detailed description.
Step 1: preparing the initial data of integrated energy system, including electric system, natural gas system and therrmodynamic system
Each node, branch, the initial data for coupling propagation path, initialize integrated energy system internet information；
Step 2: fixed sources of energy network data packet initial number N is randomly assigned to energy hinge EH, in fixed sources of energy internet
The position of control centre calculates average transmission cycle T；
Step 3: defining integrated energy system network topology model G=(J, B), J indicates the set of node, and B indicates side
Set, is arranged the major parameter of model, including the characteristic path length L of integrated energy system network, the neck node of node
It is total and node to gather coefficient；
Step 4: in faults coupling communication process, considering under event of failure probability scenarios, generate cascading failure system shape
State space: the cascading failure path of integrated energy system is generated using initial disturbance as starting point, while by all cascading failure roads
It is root node that diameter, which is considered as by the element that initial disturbance is related to, and the fault element being successively related in cascading failure development process is
Branch node or leaf node, thus the directed tree constituted, every cascading failure path is that several are with timing
System state set；
Step 5: system mode is divided into 2 class of absorbing state and transfering state: 1) absorbing state, once into this shape
State, system will be stopped in this state, and cascading failure stops, and system will stay on this state, and external state transition probability is zero,
I.e.
pij(Δ t)=0, pij(Δ t)=1 (1)
2) transfering state.1. including the element for surmounting working limit.In this case, the element for surmounting working limit will be with
Same probability is acted by protective device to be cut off, and systematic state transfer probability is 1, and the probability that system rests on reset condition is
Zero.Assuming that there are the n elements for surmounting working limit at this time, then have
2. there is no the elements that exceeds the maximum, but there are overload elements.
In this case, the outage probability of overload operation element can pass through previously described element operational reliability model
It is calculated, i.e. current stateThe outage probability of lower element i, is denoted asWithExpression is worked as
The sum of all possible element outage probability under preceding state, wherein ΩOLiFor stateUnder all overload element set.That
Systematic state transfer probability size are as follows:
Step 6: faults coupling state migration procedure meets Markov process feature, it is assumed that in moment t0From any one
State a sets out, and arrives another moment t0+ t is necessarily transferred to a1, a2, anPlace ... some in all states shifted
The transition probability of each of journey state is only related with system current state, and unrelated with System History state, more analyzing
When can flow coupling fault, for state space variation analysis, not only need to consider element fault combine, it is also necessary to consider due to
System mode local environment information, service condition and failure sequence it is different and caused by difference system mode, compartment system shape
State, to generate total system state space, when the step-length of transition probability is 1, transition probability matrix can be denoted as:
Step 7: set the probability vector of system initial state asWherein each element indicates to be in shape
The initial state probabilities of state i, if being in j state after m is walked, Markov prediction can be indicated are as follows:
Z(k+1)=ZkP=Z0·P(k+1) (5)
Wherein, Zk+1For the probability being in after k transfer under unified state；ZkFor the oneself state after k transfer
Probability；P is first time transition probability.
Comprehensive energy structural system state computation and analysis under faults coupling propagation is basic in a step transition probability matrix
Under conditions of constant, over time, equilibrium state will occur in comprehensive energy structural system, i.e., each state is general in system
Rate remains unchanged.There is Z at this time(k+1)=Zk, write as matrix form:
Step 8: for each of primary fault collection element, cutting overload route recalculates system load flow and cuts
Payload, and update system status information；
Step 9: if the state probability in step 7 is greater than the threshold value of setting, and failure scale is less than the threshold value of setting, then
This state is added to alternative fault set, if the state without the condition that meets, stops search；
Step 10: primary fault collection being taken as alternative fault set, and empties current alternative fault set, repeats step 8-10；
Step 11: the search result of the coupling communication process based on Markov process, the weak link of analysis system are looked for
State transfer relationship between the key link and route of system obtains load margin loss Markov chain；
Step 12: the interbehavior of multipotency stream load nargin evolution process in analysis integrated energy resource system extracts failure coupling
Close the differentiation of multipotency stream load nargin and its interaction feature in communication process.
Embodiments above is merely to illustrate the present invention, and not limitation of the present invention, in relation to the common of technical field
Technical staff can also make a variety of changes and modification without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, therefore all
Equivalent technical solution also belongs to protection category of the invention.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of extract the method for the differentiation of multipotency stream load nargin and its interaction feature in faults coupling communication process, feature exists
In: this method comprises the following steps:
Step 1: the transfer process based on Markov process analysis multipotency stream cascading failure, generate failure across can flow propagation it is complete
System state space obtains transfer matrix accordingly, and solves the load margin of each limiting condition；
Step 2: based on Markov process analysis under the change in topology and faults coupling propagation under faults coupling propagation
State change obtains the Markov chain of load margin loss；
Step 3: the interbehavior in analysis integrated Energy Load nargin evolution process extracts comprehensive in faults coupling communication process
Energy Load nargin develops and its interaction feature.
2. the differentiation of multipotency stream load nargin and its interaction in a kind of extraction faults coupling communication process according to claim 1
The method of feature, which is characterized in that analyzing in step 1 heterogeneous can spread defeated and production link to EH topology and operating status
It influences, considers different mass-energy stream event of failure correlation, the transfer of multipotency stream cascading failure is established based on Markov process
Journey, and failure is generated across the total system state space propagated can be flowed, transfer matrix is obtained accordingly, and solves the negative of each limiting condition
Lotus nargin.
3. step 2 requires the topology based on Markov process analysis under faults coupling propagation according to claim 1
State change under variation and faults coupling propagation, obtains the Markov chain of load margin loss, it is characterised in that: first
First, in faults coupling communication process, consider under event of failure probability scenarios, generate cascading failure system state space；It is based on
The search result of the coupling communication process of Markov process, the weak link of analysis system, find system key link and
State transfer relationship between route obtains load margin loss Markov chain.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110277785A (en) * | 2019-06-26 | 2019-09-24 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Electrical couplings system loading margin calculation method and system based on continuous multipotency stream |
| CN112308438A (en) * | 2020-11-05 | 2021-02-02 | 国网天津市电力公司 | Energy interconnection system reliability assessment method and device based on state coupling matrix |
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Cited By (4)
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| CN110277785A (en) * | 2019-06-26 | 2019-09-24 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Electrical couplings system loading margin calculation method and system based on continuous multipotency stream |
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Application publication date: 20190625 |