CN105303245B - Traffic analysis system and traffic analysis method - Google Patents
Traffic analysis system and traffic analysis method Download PDFInfo
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- CN105303245B CN105303245B CN201510441187.3A CN201510441187A CN105303245B CN 105303245 B CN105303245 B CN 105303245B CN 201510441187 A CN201510441187 A CN 201510441187A CN 105303245 B CN105303245 B CN 105303245B
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of traffic analysis system and traffic analysis methods.The traffic analysis system Collection utilization mobile log of the passenger of the vehicles, it is analyzed using the above-mentioned mobile log being collected into, the traffic analysis system includes path presumption unit, estimates the slave starting station of above-mentioned mobile log to multiple movement routines at destination；Using route presumption unit, in the path more than the predetermined threshold of above-mentioned multiple movement routines, when the previous station at destination is identical, judge that above-mentioned mobile log is to have used the mobile log for the route that above-mentioned destination is reached via previous station；And real time table presumption unit estimates the real time table of each route according to the time getting off of the mobile log of the above-mentioned each route generated using route presumption unit.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to traffic analysis system and traffic analysis methods.More particularly to according to the mobile log of user
Estimate the arrival time of train etc. and traffic analysis system, transportation analysis program and the traffic analysis method of departure time.
Background technique
To improve the convenience of public transport and the high efficiency of operation as target, it is various right to be carried out by Transportation Enterprises
Plan.For example, the movement routine of passenger is estimated by using the resume of general traffic system IC ticket in recent years, thus, it is possible to
Carry out presumption and the flow prediction of crowded rate.Timetable (timetable) is needed to believe in order to correctly estimate the movement routine of passenger
Breath.Transportation Enterprises have preset schedule plan, but are actually difficult to implement the fortune of train and automobile according to schedule
Row, since mostly small-scale delay can occur for the influence of accident and traffic congestion etc., can mostly fall into must carry out having with plan partially
The case where operation of difference.It is therefore contemplated that in the movement routine presumption etc. for carrying out passenger without using the Operational Timelines in plan,
And using the real time table for having counted actual arrival time and arrival time of setting out, it is able to carry out more accurate point in this way
Analysis.But, following problems are had, must be arranged in vehicle and route/road etc. in order to mechanically collect real time table
Special device, to need extra expense and time.
Patent Document 1 discloses have real time table generation unit with train delays predictive display function
Operation management system.
In addition, basis passes through the one way being estimated to be without transfer Patent Document 2 discloses a kind of system
The mobile log of the passenger of route movement person and generate get off number be distributed to estimate real time table.
Patent document 1: Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 2000-1168 bulletin
Patent document 2:PCT/JP2012/076750
The technology recorded in patent document 1 be with can be received to generate real time table with train online information,
Premised on station congestion information, garage information, Weather information, other each information relevant to current train operation, for not having
The technology for having these information and generating real time table is not recorded.
The technology recorded in patent document 2 is to estimate real time table according to number distribution is got off, but to removal
The mobile log of the passenger to be got off using other routes, it is one way route movement person without transfer that utilization, which is estimated to be,
Passenger mobile log.Therefore following problems are had, i.e. the mobile log for presumption becomes than actually using the route
And the log of the passenger to have got off will be lacked.
In addition, the peak value of the number distribution of getting off generated by said units is that actual train arrival time compares
When there are defect or the peak values of vacation, therefore be not easy to be distributed according to number of getting off and estimate real time table.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is to propose in view of the above circumstances, its purpose is that more precisely being estimated according to the mobile log of user
The arrival time and departure time of train etc..
It is that traffic is utilized in a kind of use if illustrating representative unit in unit for solving the problem of the present invention
The mobile log of the passenger of tool estimates the traffic analysis system of the real time table of scheduled route, the traffic analysis system
Path presumption unit is included, is estimated from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile log to multiple movement routines of terminus；It is pushed away using route
Determine portion, in above-mentioned multiple movement routines via the above-mentioned destination of above-mentioned route previous station path be scheduled threshold value
When above, estimating above-mentioned mobile log is that the log at above-mentioned destination is reached using above-mentioned route；Real time table presumption unit,
It according to above-mentioned is estimated as that the time getting off of the above-mentioned mobile log of above-mentioned route is utilized using route presumption unit, estimates above-mentioned reality
Border timetable.
Alternatively, a kind of mobile log using the passenger that the vehicles are utilized estimates real time of scheduled route
The transportation analysis program of table makes computer execute following steps: estimating more from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile log to destination
The step of a movement routine；When being via the path at the previous station at the above-mentioned destination of above-mentioned route in above-mentioned multiple movement routines
When more than scheduled threshold value, estimating above-mentioned mobile log is the step of reaching the log at above-mentioned destination using above-mentioned route；Root
It according to above-mentioned is estimated as that the time getting off of the above-mentioned mobile log of above-mentioned route is utilized using route presumption unit, estimates above-mentioned reality
The step of timetable.
Alternatively, a kind of mobile log using the passenger that the vehicles are utilized estimates real time of scheduled route
The traffic analysis method of table, has follow steps: estimating multiple mobile roads from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile log to destination
The step of diameter；When in above-mentioned multiple movement routines via the above-mentioned destination of above-mentioned route previous station path be scheduled threshold
When being worth above, estimating above-mentioned mobile log is the step of reaching the log at above-mentioned destination using above-mentioned route；According to above-mentioned benefit
It is estimated as that the time getting off of the above-mentioned mobile log of above-mentioned route is utilized with route presumption unit, estimates above-mentioned real time table
Step.
According to embodiment of the present invention, arriving for train etc. can more precisely be estimated according to the mobile log of user
Up to time and departure time.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the system construction drawing of the traffic analysis system of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the figure for illustrating the structure of traffic system IC card data of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the figure for illustrating the structures of the master data of essential informations such as storage station/route of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is the figure for illustrating the structure of mobile daily record data of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is the figure for illustrating the data structure of schedule plan of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is to indicate that the mobile log of embodiments of the present invention generates the flow chart of processing step.
Fig. 7 is the flow chart using route presumption processing step for indicating embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 8 is the explanatory diagram for indicating the example using route presumption of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 9 is the explanatory diagram for indicating an example using route presumption result of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 10 is the flow chart for indicating the real time table presumption processing step of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 11 is utilization route presumption result and the schedule plan, real time table for indicating embodiments of the present invention
The explanatory diagram of an example of presumption result prompt.
Figure 12 is the flow chart for indicating other an example of real time table presumption processing step of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 13 is the explanatory diagram for indicating an example of representative time getting off presumption processing of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 14 is the explanatory diagram that an example of time calculation processing is averagely needed between the station for indicating embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 15 is the explanatory diagram for indicating other an example of real time table presumption processing of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 16 is the flow chart for indicating an example of the presumption processing of train by bus of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 17 is the explanatory diagram for indicating an example of seat preferred path of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 18 is the detailed description figure for indicating the presumption processing of train by bus of embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 19 is the explanatory diagram for indicating an example of train presumption result by bus of embodiments of the present invention.
The explanation of symbol
101: user；102: reading terminals；103: portable terminal；104: network；105: server zone；107: traffic analysis
System；111: data server；112: calculation server；113: information sending server；114: network；115,117: traffic enterprise
Industry；121: data store；122: traffic system IC card data；123: master data；124: mobile daily record data；125: when plan
Between table；126: real time table, path preference pattern data；130:I/F；131:CPU；132: memory；133: storage unit；
134: mobile log generates program；135: path program for estimating；136: utilizing route program for estimating；137: the presumption of real time table
Program；138: train program for estimating by bus；139: data store；141: display generation program of graphic display；142: information sends journey
Sequence；145:I/F；146:CPU；147: memory；201: log ID；202: User ID；203: station/bus station ID；204: making
Use the time；205: use classes；300: main station/bus station；301: station/bus station ID；302: station/automobile station name；
303: holding company；304: location；305: Latitude-Longitude；310: main route；311: route ID；312: route name；313: fortune
Company, battalion；314: route type；320: main station/bus station/route relationship；321: route ID；322: station/bus station ID；
323: sequence；324: classification；325: from the off need the time；401: log ID；402: User ID；403: the date by bus
Time；404: date-time of getting off；405: payment amount；406: boarding station/bus station ID1；407: debarkation stop/bus station ID1；
408: boarding station/bus station ID2；409: debarkation stop/bus station ID2；501: timetable ID；502: route ID；503: stop；
504: arrival time；505: the departure time；601-1005: step；1101: picture；1102: drop-down menu；1103: display picture
Face；1104: utilizing route presumption result；1105: schedule plan；1106: real time table presumption result；1107: cursor；
1201-1207: step；1501: representing the time getting off；1502: the representative time getting off of the next stop；1503: the time difference；1504:
Interpolation；1601-1605: step；1701: boarding station；1702: debarkation stop；1703: path；1704: the starting station；1705: seat is excellent
First path；1801: riding time；1802: the time of departure；1803: next time of departure；1804: boarding station；1805: when outbound
Between；1806: arrival time；1807: the outbound time；1901: picture；1902: station；1903: picture；1904: chart.
Specific embodiment
Hereinafter, illustrating embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings.Fig. 1 is the traffic analysis system of embodiments of the present invention
System construction drawing.
In recent years, mostly using the vehicles user (101) using non-contact IC card or it is with the same function just
Terminal (103) are taken, by for the reading terminals (102) of ticket checking machine and setting in the car using the vehicles.By these inspections
Data acquired by ticket machine and interior terminal are sent to the server zone that respective Transportation Enterprises are managed via network (104)
(105)。
Traffic analysis system (107) is by data server (111), calculation server (112), information sending server
(113) form, storage the use data of non-contact IC card or the portable terminal (103) for having same function are added up to and
The mobile data obtained, is analyzed and processed.In addition, the contactless IC card being not directly dependent upon when for illustrating the present invention, ticket checking
The function and structures such as machine, the information processing technology omit the description.
If holding the user (101) of non-contact IC card (103) by ticket checking machine, stored in ticket checking machine (102)
The User ID of IC card (103) and include that friendship is stored in as initial data by the location information of Time of Day etc. for identification
In the server (105) that logical enterprise is managed.These data are fitted while storage, or every a hour or every two days equal
When timing be sent to data server (111) via network (104) about the part of needs.By data server (111)
The traffic analysis system (107) and network formed with the server zone of calculation server (112), information sending server (113)
(104) it connects, can be communicated with user, Transportation Enterprises (115,117).Thus, for example Transportation Enterprises (115) can make to hand over
Reduction of fractions to a common denominator analysis system (107) is cooperated with other systems as operation management system and IC card data management system.In addition,
In the present embodiment, as data server (111), calculation server (112), information sending server (113) server
Group is illustrated, but can be configured to execute the function of these server zones by one or more servers.
Data server (111) receives the number of the read users of IC card reading terminals such as ticket checking machine via network (104)
According to the data store (121) being recorded in server.It include traffic system IC card data in the data be collected, stored
(122), basic master data (123) etc. relevant to station/bus station or route.And then it stores to traffic system IC card data
(122) etc. carried out daily record data (124) mobile obtained by time processing, schedule plan (125), by traffic analysis system
(107) the real time table (126) of generation, used path preference pattern data (127) etc. when estimating the path of passenger.
About with the associated basic master data (123) in station and route, the case where having altered or in the case where update fit
When the external input from system and it is updated/records.
It in calculation server (112), carries out the following processing, i.e., according to the data being stored in data server (111)
Generate the processing of mobile data, the processing for the movement routine for estimating passenger, the processing for estimating real time table etc..Calculation server
(112) it is mainly made of network interface (I/F (A)) (130), CPU (131), memory (132), storage unit (133).Network connects
Mouth is for interface connected to the network.Storage unit (133) includes data store (139), the data store (139) storage
Mobile log generates program (134), path program for estimating (135), utilizes route program for estimating (136), the presumption of real time table
Program (137), by bus program groups, the result of calculation processing, obtained statistical value and the index value such as train program for estimating (138)
Deng.Storage unit is, for example, hard disk drive, CD-ROM drive, flash memory etc..Furthermore it is possible in multiple recording devices
Divide and record various programs, various data.
When executing each program group, it is temporarily stored in after the data for becoming analysis object are read from data server (111)
In memory (132), executed after each program (134,135,136,137,138) is read into memory with CPU (131), thus
Realize various functions.The execution timing of these programs can be in such as operator (119), user, Transportation Enterprises (115,117)
The timing of request, or every time to data server (111) additional new data when carry out, can be every or as batch processing
Its time determined is automatically handled.
Information sending server (113) has network interface (I/F (B)) (145), CPU (146), memory (147) and note
Recording device (148).Network interface is for the interface with network connection.The various programs of recording device records, various data, such as
It is hard disk drive, CD-ROM drive, flash memory etc..Alternatively, it is also possible to divide and record in multiple recording devices
Various programs, various data.
Information sending server (113) be for Transportation Enterprises, user (115,117) from personal digital assistant device (116) or
The information terminal (118) of fixed via network (114) referring to real time table, used the people of real time table generated
Flow the server of the analysis result of parsing and delay situation etc..Recording device (148) include display generation program of graphic display (141),
Information sends program (142).CPU (146) is held after the various programs being recorded in recording device (148) are read into memory
Row, thus performs various functions.
Fig. 2 is the data i.e. traffic system IC card data (122) for indicating the representative stored in data server (111)
The figure of structure.Firstly, traffic system IC card data (122) include log ID (201), User ID (202), basis as object
The ID (203) at the station and bus station that link together by the information of which reading data terminal, the reading has been passed through
Take terminal using time (204) and enter the station or the information such as outbound etc. use classes (205).It is used here as classification
The information being expressed as follows: for example, if be ticket checking machine or access door etc. be then " entering the station " or " outbound ", if it is merchandise sales use
Terminal etc. is then the processing such as " purchase " classification.Traffic system IC card data (122) can be sent in each newly-generated data, or
Person can also send together using the late into the night to tail off.In data server (111) side, timing with the transmission consistently into
Row storage processing.
Fig. 3 is the type and respective data structure for indicating the master data (123) stored in data server (111)
Figure.Firstly, the related master data, that is, master site (300) in the place of means of conveyance can be utilized with station, bus station, road etc.
Including station/bus station ID (301), station/automobile station name (302), the locations (304), latitude such as hold company (303), residence
Spend the information such as the information (305) of longitude.When station, bus station and route, road structure in have altered when, carry out data at any time
Addition or amendment.Master data, that is, main route (310) about route includes the route ID (311) of route for identification, road
Line name (312), operator (313), difference are the information such as the route type (314) of railway route or automobile route.For
Master data, that is, main station/bus station-route relationship (320) of association station and route includes the route ID of route for identification
(321), station included by the route/bus station ID (322) and manage station/bus station sequence serial number (323),
Identification be parking or the classification (324) that passes through and from the off need the information such as time (325).At such as station and vapour
In the case that station, route and road have altered, in each change from exterior shown in FIG. 1 input and update/note
It records master data (123).
Fig. 4 is the data knot indicated for being stored in the mobile daily record data (124) stored in data server (111)
The figure of structure.Mobile daily record data (124) include the log ID (401) and the User ID (402) as object, expression for identifying log
Finish in ride date-time (403), the expression that departure place has started the time of means of conveyance utilized in place of arrival
The payment amount (405) of the spent expense of the date-time of getting off (404) for the time of means of conveyance utilized, expression movement,
Boarding station/bus station ID1 (406), debarkation stop/bus station ID1 (407), boarding station/bus station ID2 (408), debarkation stop/automobile
It stands the information such as ID2 (409).The movement daily record data (124) is generated primary using traffic system IC card data (122) etc.
Data after processing.
Fig. 5 is the data structure indicated for being stored in the schedule plan (125) stored in data server (111)
Figure.Schedule plan data (125) include the timetable ID (501) of timetable for identification, its route ID (502), stop
Or the information of bus station (503), arrival time (504) and departure time (505).
Fig. 6 is to illustrate to generate mobile daily record data (124) according to traffic system IC card data (122), is stored in data clothes
The figure of the processing step for the mobile generation program (134) being engaged in device (111).Herein in relation to the storage to data server (111)
Processing is illustrated with carrying out a batch processing in the time determined daily.Firstly, referring to the traffic system being newly collected into
The User ID (202) and use time (204) for including in IC card data (122), according to User ID sequence and time sequencing to institute
There are data to be ranked up (processing step 601).Then for the Data duplication User ID after processing step 601 is ranked up
The processing same as below (processing step 602) of quantity.Firstly, will with boarding station/bus station ID, by bus date-time, debarkation stop/
The corresponding column phenotypic variance of bus station ID, date-time of getting off is initialized (processing step 603).Then for according to the time
Tactic Data duplication processing same as below (processing step 604).Firstly, the value by using classification (205) carries out
Situation distinguishes (processing step 605), is respectively processed.When the value of use classes (205) is to enter the station, first confirm that identical
It whether there is previous outbound log (processing step 606) in user and log on the same day, when there are outbound log, determine
The difference of the date-time by bus of get off date-time and the current log whether within threshold value predetermined (processing step
607).The threshold value is the value for determining the transfer of multiple vehicles, the preferably range in such as a few minutes to dozens of minutes
Inside it is configured.If the difference on date riding time on date time getting off and current log of previous outbound log is in threshold value
Within, then it is considered as and continues a series of movement, to boarding station/bus station ID and by bus the additional value (place of list of date-time
Manage step 608).In the case where being more than threshold value, consider that from previous movement, the time is very idle, therefore before capable of judging
One mobile message is that be divided herein.Therefore the value of variable is stored in mobile daily record data (124) (place
Step 609) is managed, again by initialization of variable (processing step 610).If there is no the case where corresponding previous outbound log
Under, to the boarding station/bus station ID and by bus additional value (processing step 611) of the list of date-time.When use classes (205)
Value when being outbound, it is additional value (processing step 612) to the variable of debarkation stop/bus station ID and date-time of getting off.In needle
In the case where at the end of the reprocessing of 1 User ID to variable setting value, the value of variable is stored in mobile daily record data
In (processing step 613).Here, log ID (201) is remained into sequence number.Here for determining whether to carry out a series of movements
Threshold value t as standard transfer time and set in advance.Model is allowed by what threshold value t can adjust the transfer time
It encloses.Threshold value related with the transfer time of standard is positive value, can be in all networks of communication lines as common value, can also be to every
Different values is arranged in a region.
Fig. 7 is being pushed away using route using route for illustrating to estimate each mobile log using mobile daily record data (124)
Determine the figure of the processing step of program (136).Processing is repeated the quantity (processing step 701) of mobile log.First by multiple
Search for path (processing step 702,703) of the Reference search from boarding station to debarkation stop.Path is selected in the present embodiment
Select benchmark as time priority benchmark, the preferential benchmark of number of transfer, the preferential benchmark of expense these three be illustrated.It is able to use
Path selection benchmark is not limited to these three.Then, the identical path of moving direction, which is, to be determined for all paths searched
It is no that there are more than predetermined threshold (processing steps 704).
Here, the details of processing step 704 is described in detail using Fig. 8.Fig. 8 is indicated through time priority benchmark, transfer
The preferential benchmark of number, the preferential benchmark of expense search for the result from boarding station (801) to the movement routine of debarkation stop (802).When
Between preferred path (803) pass course 1 (809) it is mobile to station C (808), changed in route 2 (811) and reach debarkation stop
(802).Number of transfer preferred path (804) and expense preferred path (805) are identical, reach debarkation stop using route 3 (810)
(802).In the case where there is above-mentioned path, consider route 3 estimating real time table as object.
It at this moment, can not be by the mobile log from the boarding station of Fig. 8 to debarkation stop in technology described in Patent Document 2
The presumption of real time table for route 3.From the path of boarding station including the use of route 1 and 2 via the path of station C and B,
Therefore can not necessarily uniquely determine is the log for having used route 3.
In this regard, in the traffic analysis system of the present embodiment, in processing step 704, in order to determine searched for path
Whether moving direction is identical, confirms that the previous station of the debarkation stop in each path (is station A) in the presumption of route 3.By under confirmation
The previous station at station is whether the probability at which station is high, and presumption reaches debarkation stop using which route.As specific side
Method, on the basis of scheduled threshold value is previously set, by determining suitable path (about number of transfer, expense or time
Deng compared with other routes, there is certain reasonable path) via station A probability whether be more than the threshold value come into
Row.In the example of fig. 8,2 paths (number of transfer preferred path (804) and expense preferred path (805)) in 3 paths
The previous station of debarkation stop be (806) station A, reach debarkation stop (802) using route 3 (810), 1 path in 3 paths
The previous station of the debarkation stop of (time priority path (803)) is station B, reaches debarkation stop (802) using route 2 (811).This
When, such as scheduled threshold value if it is 0.5, then 2 paths (0.67) are more than threshold value in 3 paths, therefore at least via station A
It is high to carry out mobile probability.In other words, high using the probability of route 3 (810).Therefore estimating the log is using route 3 (810)
Reach the log of the user of debarkation stop (802).At this moment, the time getting off of the log is recorded as to the arrival of the debarkation stop of the route
Time candidate (processing step 705).
In this way, the traffic analysis system of the present embodiment is predetermined to estimate using the mobile log of the passenger using the vehicles
Route real time table traffic analysis system comprising: path presumption unit (135), presumption is from movement
The starting station of log to destination multiple movement routines；Using route presumption unit (136), at the destination via the route
Previous station path more than predetermined threshold when, be estimated as the movement log be using the route reach destination log；
Real time table presumption unit (137), according to by being estimated as under the mobile log for having used the route using route presumption unit
The vehicle time estimates real time table.
Alternatively, one is use using the mobile log of the passenger of the vehicles real time table for estimating projected route
Traffic analysis method (and the program including executing the traffic analysis method and store the program storage medium), feature
It is, comprising the following steps: the step of estimating multiple movement routines from the starting station of mobile log to destination (702), when
In multiple movement routines via the destination of the route previous station path more than predetermined threshold when, estimate the movement log
It is (704) the step of reaching the log at destination using the route；According to by being estimated as using route presumption unit using the road Liao Gai
The step of time getting off of the mobile log of line, presumption real time table (1001-1005).
By features described above, and pushing away for the log for only existing the path for using the route has been used as described in Patent Document 2
Surely it is compared, the log for presumption can be further increased, the precision of presumption can be further increased as a result.
Here, when the time getting off record of mobile log is practical checks the outbound time, mistake is generated with train arrival time
Difference.Therefore in processing step 705, the time getting off of mobile log can be corrected according to scheduled information.As scheduled
Information, such as be able to use from the route in-track platform of stop to the average traveling time etc. ticket checking.
Fig. 9 is the figure for indicating an example of the result using route presumption processing using route program for estimating (136).Record
It is estimated as the quantity for the mobile log got off at the station using the route at each station of each route in each time.Generally multiply
Visitor expects not to be detained after train is got off and outbound from ticketing spot, therefore considers to be concentrated around multiple movements in train arrival time
Log.
Figure 10 is the figure for illustrating an example of processing step of real time table program for estimating (137).At each route
Manage real time table presumption step (processing step 1001).Firstly, increasing small amendment (place to the schedule plan of the route
Manage step 1002).As modified increase method, considers whole timetable or each train or will go out at each station
Send out several seconds methods to or so a few minutes that are staggered around arrival time.Then, calculate revised schedule plan with by utilizing
What route program for estimating (136) was estimated has used the consistent degree (processing step of the time getting off of the mobile log of the route
1003).As consistent degree, it is able to use train arrival time and the time getting off consistent movement of revised schedule plan
The quantity of log.If because including error in the time getting off of mobile log and scheduled threshold value and revised plan being arranged
The train arrival time of timetable and the difference of time getting off then can be determined that be consistent within threshold value.If consistent degree is extremely
It is maximum in this calculated consistent degree, then the amendment schedule plan is recorded as real time table (processing step 1005).
Finally it is maximum amendment schedule plan as real time table (126) for consistent degree to be recorded in data server (111).
The case where general few schedule plans and real time table substantially deviate from, therefore be able to carry out by the above method more high-precision
The presumption of the real time table of degree.
Figure 11 be indicate display generation program of graphic display (141) carry out using route program for estimating (136) and it is practical when
Between table program for estimating (137) presumption result hint image an example figure.Operator (119) can be by picture (1101)
Drop-down menu (1102) select route.The route that display is selected in display picture (1103) utilizes route presumption result
(1104) and schedule plan (1105), real time table presumption result (1106).Table presumption result is wrong between when practical
It mistakes, operator (119) is able to use cursor (1107) amendment real time table (1106).When correcting real time table, behaviour
Author can be easily that correct in front or correct in the opposite direction etc., and be improved and repair being held in time shaft
The information of positive precision, therefore it is useful that operator, which can intuitively correct the GUI of real time table, as shown in Figure 11.
Figure 12 is the figure for illustrating other an example of processing step of real time table program for estimating (137).According to each road
Line handles real time table presumption step (processing step 1201).Then, the processing (processing at each station is carried out in the route
Step 1202).It is determined to represent time getting off (processing step 1203) according to the time getting off of the usage log at each station.It represents
When time getting off refers to that the log for making the time getting off close to each other in the mobile log of segmentation includes in same section set,
Represent the time getting off of above-mentioned partial set.
Here, the determining method for representing the time getting off is described in detail using Figure 13.As the decision side for representing the time getting off
Method, clustering method are most suitable.In the case where one day number of run of the route is known situation, it is able to use the K method of average and mixed
It closes clustering method as Gauss model and is able to use Di Li Cray (Dirichle) mistake in the case where number of run is unknown
Clustering method as journey mixed model.Well known technology, therefore detailed description will be omitted are able to use about these clustering methods.
By apply clustering method, the time getting off using log of the route can be divided into multiple clusters (from Figure 13 upper section to
Middle section).Then, by determining the typical value of divided cluster, it can find out and represent time getting off (Figure 13 lower section).About generation
Tabular value determining method, average value or intermediate value, mode of time getting off etc. are appropriate in cluster.In this way according to the utilization of the route
The time getting off of log, which finds out, represents the time getting off, and thus, it is possible to remove to utilize include in log to utilize route presumption result
Mistake etc..
Then, real time table program for estimating (137) carries out the processing (processing step 1204) between each station.Find out certain
The correlation of the representative time getting off at a station and next station finds out correlation as maximum time difference τ, by the time difference
τ is set as the station and being averaged for next station needs time (processing step 1205).By formula 1 calculate the time difference be τ when
Correlation.
[formula 1]
Here, X (t) is the sequence for storing the representative time getting off at the station, when moment t is to represent the time getting off, X
It (t) is 1.Y (t) is the sequence for storing the representative time getting off of the next stop at the station.When being averaged for the station and the next stop
Need the time be τ when, if being set as the representative time getting off that time t is the station, expect time t+ τ become the next stop generation
The table time getting off.Therefore when τ is the average required time at the station and the next stop, correlation maximum.Indicate related in Figure 14
An example of the calculated result of property.
Then, real time table program for estimating (137) search time is poor and between the calculated station of processing step 1205
It averagely needs to represent the time getting off similar in the time, thus generates real time table (processing step 1206).Representative is got off the moment
It is possible that including defect, so real time table (processing step 1207) can be corrected by carrying out interpolation to defect.Figure 15
Indicate the processing concept map of processing step 1206 and processing step 1207.By connecting the representative time getting off with some station
(1501) time difference becomes averagely needs the representative of the next stop of time to get off between the calculated station of processing step 1205
Time (1502) generates real time table.Interpolation (1504) are carried out for the defect part for representing the time getting off.
In this way, real time table program for estimating (137) is in the case where being able to use schedule plan, the application plan time
Table estimates real time table, even if can not application plan timetable in the case where can by calculate represent get off when
Between averagely need the time to estimate real time table between station.
Figure 16 is the flow chart for indicating an example of the processing step of train program for estimating (138) by bus.Processing is repeated shifting
The quantity (processing step 1601) of dynamic log.Firstly, the path preference pattern stored according to data server (111) is recorded in
Each path preference pattern in data (127) carries out route searching (processing step 1602,1603).In path preference pattern number
According to the Path selection benchmark for being stored with the passenger considered in route searching in (127).Path selection benchmark is in addition to considering to select
" the time priority benchmark " that reaches the path of debarkation stop earliest, " the changing to preferential benchmark " for selecting the least path of number of transfer,
Except " the avoiding crowded benchmark " in the most empty path of " the preferential benchmark of expense ", the selection train in the generally the least expensive path of selection expense,
It also considers to be taken a seat in crowded train from boarding station to advancing with debarkation stop opposite direction, returns to originating for the route
Stand and preferentially ensure " the preferential benchmark in seat " at seat etc..By the way that station is set as node, the route connected between station is set as
Edge shows network of railways by graph structure, the weight between station is set to the required time, number of transfer, expense, is gathered around
Squeeze degree, from there through algorithm as Di Jiesitela (Dijkstra) algorithm solve shortest route problem, thus realize about
Time priority benchmark, the preferential benchmark of transfer, the preferential benchmark of expense, the route searching for avoiding crowded benchmark.It is asked about shortest path
The solution of topic is able to use well-known technique, therefore omits detailed description.
Here, the route searching of the preferential benchmark in seat is described in detail using Figure 17.When from boarding station (1701) to debarkation stop
(1702) when path (1703) is crowded, to debarkation stop after once being turned back to the starting station of reverse direction (1704) by selection
(1702) path (1705) is preferentially taken a seat in the starting station (1704) by the increase of traveling time.It can be by searching for
The trip path added between boarding station (1701) and the starting station (1704) in the general path (1703) finished is this to search for
Seat preferred path (1705).When station quantity between boarding station (1701) and the starting station (1704) is few or from by bus
Stand (1701) it is more to the station quantity between debarkation stop (1704) when selection seat preferred path (1705) be suitable, therefore work as
When station quantity between boarding station (1701) and the starting station (1704) is predetermined threshold or less or when from boarding station (1701) to
Station quantity between debarkation stop (1704) can scan for when being predetermined threshold or more.In addition, also being had according to Transportation Enterprises
Forbid such the case where turning back by bus.At this moment, above-mentioned prohibitive behavior is not recommended user by the purpose of the present invention, is led to
Cross and the preferential benchmark in seat increased to route searching candidate, as Transportation Enterprises hold as the actual state turned back by bus.
Then, train program for estimating (138) carries out train by bus to each path searched for and estimates (processing step by bus
1604,1605).Illustrate the details of train presumption by bus using Figure 18.Firstly, using the riding time of mobile log
(1801) and by real time table program for estimating (137) the real time table (126) that deduces determines riding time (1801)
The train at the later nearest time of departure (1802).It really has one's ticket punched the time when the riding time (1801) of mobile log
When, it is able to use the timetable for being added scheduled presumption traveling time.Actually from the ticket checking of passenger to the movement of entraining point
There is fluctuation in time, therefore the unlimited train that can be taken surely at the time of departure (1802) nearest from riding time (1801).Cause
The train of this next time of departure (1803) is also added to train waiting bowl spares by bus.Even if similarly will be more in transfer stop (1804)
The train at a time of departure is added to train waiting bowl spares by bus.The train for being added to train waiting bowl spares by bus can be assigned by threshold value etc.
Quantity.Then, when the time getting off (1805) of mobile log is the outbound time, compare in the arrival of train candidate by bus
Between the outbound time (1805) of (1806) plus outbound time (1807) and mobile log after scheduled presumption traveling time, general
Nearest is set as train by bus.Finally the outbound time (1805) of mobile log and by bus train presumption are waited in searching route
The nearest conduct of outbound time (1807) mended train of riding is exported.In the present embodiment, by mobile log it is outbound when
Between (1805) and the nearest conduct of outbound time (1807) of train presumption candidate train of riding is exported by bus, but by bus
It is without being limited thereto that train estimates method, such as can also be according to scheduled priority from the outbound time for for example moving log
(1805) and by bus multiple by bus trains of the difference of the outbound time (1807) of train presumption candidate within predetermined threshold estimate
Train of riding is determined in candidate.In the present embodiment, carry out having used route searching (processing step 1603) and real time respectively
The train presumption (processing step 1605) by bus of table (126), but be also able to carry out at route searching (processing step 1603)
Consider the search of real time table (126).
Figure 19 is the presumption result prompt for indicating train program for estimating (138) by bus of display generation program of graphic display (141)
The figure of an example of picture.Operator (119), should if selecting any station (1902) on the route map in picture (1901)
The Path selection ratio of the passenger at station is shown as constructional surface chart (1904) in picture (1903).Constructional surface chart (1904)
Horizontal axis indicate the time, the longitudinal axis is to indicate to be selected according to the path of the mobile log presumption of the station passenger of the time by number
Select the detailed content of benchmark.The case where ratio or its variation of the Path selection benchmark at desired station can easily be held,
Therefore the GUI of Figure 19 is useful.The reminding method of the ratio of Path selection benchmark is not limited to constructional surface chart, can also make
With pie chart etc..In addition, not only can be with the Path selection ratio of prompt passengers, the Path selection for the passenger that can also prompt to get off
Ratio, operator (119) can not only select station, also can choose route.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of traffic analysis system estimates scheduled route using the mobile log for the passenger that the vehicles are utilized
Real time table, the traffic analysis system are characterized in that, comprising:
Path presumption unit estimates multiple movement routines from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile log to destination；
Using route presumption unit, in above-mentioned multiple movement routines via the above-mentioned destination of above-mentioned route previous station road
When diameter is scheduled threshold value or more, estimating above-mentioned mobile log is that the log at above-mentioned destination is reached using above-mentioned route；And
Real time table presumption unit according to above-mentioned is estimated as that the above-mentioned mobile day of above-mentioned route is utilized using route presumption unit
The time getting off of will estimates above-mentioned real time table.
2. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
Schedule plan is corrected, so that the time getting off of the mobile log of each above-mentioned route is consistent with above-mentioned schedule plan
Degree becomes maximum, and above-mentioned revised schedule plan is set as above-mentioned real time table.
3. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
The log divided the mobile log of each above-mentioned route and make the time getting off close to each other is included in same section set
In, the operation for finding out the representative time getting off for representing above-mentioned partial set is carried out, the time getting off is represented above-mentioned and is set as above-mentioned road
The presumption result of the train arrival time of line.
4. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
Above-mentioned correlation is most by the operation for find out the correlation between the adjacent station of the mobile log of each above-mentioned route
The big time difference is set as being averaged between above-mentioned adjacent station and needs the time.
5. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
Also there is display unit, time getting off, the planned time of the mobile log of each above-mentioned route are shown in same frame
Table or above-mentioned real time table.
6. traffic analysis system according to claim 5, which is characterized in that
Also there is the correction portion for correcting the real time table on above-mentioned picture.
7. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
Also there is train presumption unit by bus respectively for above-mentioned mobile log, to include that time priority benchmark, transfer are preferential
The preferential benchmark of benchmark, fare avoids at least one benchmark in the preferential benchmark of crowded benchmark or seat from searching for from above-mentioned
Stand the multiple paths for reaching above-mentioned destination when, estimated by using above-mentioned real time table on corresponding with the movement log
State the train that passenger rides.
8. traffic analysis system according to claim 7, which is characterized in that
Also there is display unit, show the Path selection that the result of the presumption of train by bus of above-mentioned train presumption unit by bus estimates
The ratio of benchmark.
9. a kind of traffic analysis method, scheduled route is estimated using the mobile log for the passenger that the vehicles are utilized
Real time table, the traffic analysis method be characterized in that,
It has follow steps:
The step of estimating multiple movement routines from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile log to destination；
When in above-mentioned multiple movement routines via the above-mentioned destination of above-mentioned route previous station path be scheduled threshold value with
When upper, estimating above-mentioned mobile log is the step of reaching the log at above-mentioned destination using above-mentioned route；And
It is estimated as using route presumption unit being utilized the time getting off of the above-mentioned mobile log of above-mentioned route according to above-mentioned, in presumption
The step of stating real time table.
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| CN109703604B (en) * | 2018-12-07 | 2020-06-30 | 天津津航计算技术研究所 | Adjustable local optimal route quick searching method |
| JP7453110B2 (en) | 2020-09-23 | 2024-03-19 | 公益財団法人鉄道総合技術研究所 | Estimation device and estimation method |
| CN112163701B (en) * | 2020-09-23 | 2021-11-05 | 佳都科技集团股份有限公司 | Station hub transfer management method and device |
| CN113095986B (en) * | 2021-04-09 | 2022-09-09 | 上海大学 | Method and system for calculating public transport full load rate and computer readable storage medium |
| CN116542438B (en) * | 2023-03-28 | 2024-01-30 | 大连海事大学 | Bus passenger starting and stopping point estimation and repair method based on non-reference real phase |
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| SG10201505775PA (en) | 2016-02-26 |
| JP6307376B2 (en) | 2018-04-04 |
| CN105303245A (en) | 2016-02-03 |
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