CN105303245A - Traffic analysis system and traffic analysis method - Google Patents
Traffic analysis system and traffic analysis method Download PDFInfo
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- CN105303245A CN105303245A CN201510441187.3A CN201510441187A CN105303245A CN 105303245 A CN105303245 A CN 105303245A CN 201510441187 A CN201510441187 A CN 201510441187A CN 105303245 A CN105303245 A CN 105303245A
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a traffic analysis system and a traffic analysis method. The traffic analysis system is configured to collect mobile daily records of passengers using vehicles and perform analysis by using collected mobile daily records. The traffic analysis system comprises a path presumption part configured to presume a plurality of mobile paths of the mobile daily records from a departure station to a destination station, a utilization presumption part configured to determine whether the mobile daily records use the mobile daily record of the path arrived at the destination station passing through a previous station when the previous station of the destination station is the same in the paths having a preset threshold value larger than the plurality of mobile paths; and a real schedule presumption part configured to presume the real schedule of each path through the get-off time of the mobile daily record of each path generated by the path presumption part.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to traffic analysis system and traffic analysis method.More specifically relate to move the traffic analysis system of time of arrival of daily record presumption train etc. and departure time, transportation analysis program and traffic analysis method according to user.
Background technology
With the high-level efficiency of the convenience and operation that improve public transport for target, carry out various countermeasure by Transportation Enterprises.Such as, in recent years by using the resume of general traffic system IC ticket, the mobile route of presumption passenger, can carry out presumption and the flow prediction of crowded rate thus.In order to the mobile route correctly estimating passenger needs timetable (timetable) information.Transportation Enterprises has the schedule plan preset, but in fact be difficult to the operation implementing train and automobile according to schedule, due to accident and traffic congestion etc. impact more than can there is small-scale delay, how can be absorbed in must carry out with plan operation devious situation.Therefore, think Operational Timelines when the mobile route presumption etc. carrying out passenger in not application plan, and the Using statistics real time table of actual time of arrival and time of arrival of setting out, can more accurate analysis be carried out like this.But, have following problem, namely special device must be set at vehicle and circuit/road etc. to mechanically collect real time table, thus need unnecessary expense and time.
Patent Document 1 discloses the operation management system with train delays predictive display function possessing real time table generation unit.
In addition, Patent Document 2 discloses a kind of system, number of the getting off distribution that it generates according to the mobile daily record by being estimated to be the passenger being the one way route person of movement not carrying out changing to estimates real time table.
Patent documentation 1: Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 2000-1168 publication
Patent documentation 2:PCT/JP2012/076750
The technology recorded in patent documentation 1 is that the technology generating real time table for not having these information is not recorded can receive to premised on train online information, station congestion information, garage information, Weather information, other each information relevant with current train operation to generate real time table.
The technology recorded in patent documentation 2 estimates real time table according to number distribution of getting off, but in order to remove the mobile daily record of the passenger that other routes of use are got off, only utilize the mobile daily record being estimated to be the passenger being the one way route person of movement not carrying out changing to.Therefore have following problem, the daily record that the mobile daily record namely for estimating becomes the passenger got off than in fact using this route is few.
In addition, there is the peak value of defect or vacation when the peak value of the number of getting off that generated by said units distribution is that actual train compares time of arrival, being therefore not easy to estimate real time table according to number distribution of getting off.
Summary of the invention
The present invention proposes in view of the above circumstances, and its object, for move daily record according to user, more precisely estimates time of arrival and the departure time of train etc.
If illustrate representational unit in the unit for solving problem of the present invention, that a kind of use make use of the mobile daily record of the passenger of the vehicles to estimate the traffic analysis system of the real time table of predetermined route, this traffic analysis system has: path presumption unit, the multiple mobile routes of its presumption from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile daily record to terminus; Utilize route presumption unit, when it is more than predetermined threshold value via the path at the last station at the above-mentioned arrival station of above-mentioned route in above-mentioned multiple mobile route, estimating above-mentioned mobile daily record is the daily record utilizing above-mentioned route to arrive above-mentioned arrival station; Real time table presumption unit, it estimates table of above-mentioned real time according to the above-mentioned time getting off utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to make use of the above-mentioned mobile daily record of above-mentioned route.
Or, the mobile daily record that use make use of the passenger of the vehicles, to estimate a transportation analysis program for the real time table of predetermined route, makes computing machine perform following steps: estimate the step from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile daily record to multiple mobile routes at arrival station; When being more than predetermined threshold value via the path at the last station at the above-mentioned arrival station of above-mentioned route in above-mentioned multiple mobile route, estimating above-mentioned mobile daily record is the step utilizing above-mentioned route to arrive the daily record at above-mentioned arrival station; According to the above-mentioned time getting off utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to make use of the above-mentioned mobile daily record of above-mentioned route, estimate the step of table of above-mentioned real time.
Or the mobile daily record that a kind of use make use of the passenger of the vehicles, to estimate the traffic analysis method of the real time table of predetermined route, has following steps: estimate the step from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile daily record to multiple mobile routes at arrival station; When being more than predetermined threshold value via the path at the last station at the above-mentioned arrival station of above-mentioned route in above-mentioned multiple mobile route, estimating above-mentioned mobile daily record is the step utilizing above-mentioned route to arrive the daily record at above-mentioned arrival station; According to the above-mentioned time getting off utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to make use of the above-mentioned mobile daily record of above-mentioned route, estimate the step of table of above-mentioned real time.
According to an embodiment of the invention, move according to user time of arrival and the departure time that daily record more precisely can estimate train etc.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the system construction drawing of the traffic analysis system of embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the figure of the structure of the traffic system IC-card data that embodiments of the present invention are described.
Fig. 3 is the figure of the structure of the master data of the essential informations such as storage station/route that embodiments of the present invention are described.
Fig. 4 is the figure of the structure of the mobile daily record data that embodiments of the present invention are described.
Fig. 5 is the figure of the data structure of the schedule plan that embodiments of the present invention are described.
Fig. 6 is the process flow diagram of the mobile daily record generating process step representing embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 7 represents that the route that utilizes of embodiments of the present invention estimates the process flow diagram for the treatment of step.
Fig. 8 is the key diagram of the example utilizing route to estimate representing embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 9 represents that the route that utilizes of embodiments of the present invention estimates the key diagram of an example of result.
Figure 10 is the process flow diagram of the real time table presumption treatment step representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 11 represents that the route that utilizes of embodiments of the present invention estimates the key diagram of an example of result and schedule plan, the prompting of real time table presumption result.
Figure 12 is the process flow diagram of an other example of the real time table presumption treatment step representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 13 is the key diagram of an example of the representative time getting off presumption process representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 14 be represent embodiments of the present invention station between on average need the key diagram of an example of Time Calculation process.
Figure 15 is the key diagram of an other example of the real time table presumption process representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 16 is the process flow diagram of an example of the presumption of the train by bus process representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 17 is the key diagram of an example of the seat preferred path representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 18 is the detailed description figure of the presumption of the train by bus process representing embodiments of the present invention.
Figure 19 is the key diagram of an example of the presumption of the train by bus result representing embodiments of the present invention.
The explanation of symbol
101: user; 102: reading terminals; 103: portable terminal device; 104: network; 105: server zone; 107: traffic analysis system; 111: data server; 112: calculation server; 113: information sending server; 114: network; 115,117: Transportation Enterprises; 121: data store; 122: traffic system IC-card data; 123: master data; 124: mobile daily record data; 125: schedule plan; 126: real time table, path preference pattern data; 130:I/F; 131:CPU; 132: storer; 133: storage part; 134: mobile daily record generator program; 135: path program for estimating; 136: utilize route program for estimating; 137: real time table program for estimating; 138: train program for estimating by bus; 139: data store; 141: display frame generator program; 142: information transmission program; 145:I/F; 146:CPU; 147: storer; 201: daily record ID; 202: user ID; 203: station/bus station ID; 204: service time; 205: use classes; 300: main station/bus station; 301: station/bus station ID; 302: station/automobile name of station; 303: hold company; 304: location; 305: Latitude-Longitude; 310: main road line; 311: route ID; 312: route name; 313: operator; 314: route type; 320: main station/bus station/route relation; 321: route ID; 322: station/bus station ID; 323: sequentially; 324: classification; 325: from the off need the time; 401: daily record ID; 402: user ID; 403: date-time by bus; 404: date-time of getting off; 405: payment; 406: boarding station/bus station ID1; 407: debarkation stop/bus station ID1; 408: boarding station/bus station ID2; 409: debarkation stop/bus station ID2; 501: timetable ID; 502: route ID; 503: stop; 504: time of arrival; 505: the departure time; 601-1005: step; 1101: picture; 1102: drop-down menu; 1103: display frame; 1104: utilize route to estimate result; 1105: schedule plan; 1106: real time table presumption result; 1107: cursor; 1201-1207: step; 1501: represent the time getting off; 1502: the representative time getting off of the next stop; 1503: the mistiming; 1504: interpolation; 1601-1605: step; 1701: boarding station; 1702: debarkation stop; 1703: path; 1704: the starting station; 1705: seat preferred path; 1801: riding time; 1802: the time of departure; 1803: next time of departure; 1804: boarding station; 1805: the departures time; 1806: time of arrival; 1807: the departures time; 1901: picture; 1902: station; 1903: picture; 1904: chart.
Embodiment
Below, with reference to the accompanying drawings embodiments of the present invention are described.Fig. 1 is the system construction drawing of the traffic analysis system of embodiments of the present invention.
In recent years, the user of the vehicles (101) is mostly utilized to use non-contact IC card or have the portable terminal device (103) of identical function, by for utilizing the ticket checking machine of the vehicles and being arranged on the reading terminals (102) in car.Data acquired by these ticket checking machines and Che Nei terminal are sent to via network (104) server zone (105) that respective Transportation Enterprises manages.
Traffic analysis system (107) is made up of data server (111), calculation server (112), information sending server (113), store and non-contact IC card or the usage data of portable terminal device (103) that possesses same function are added up to and the Mobile data that obtains, carry out analyzing and processing.In addition, function and structure, the information processing technologies such as the contactless IC card of direct relation, ticket checking machine is not had to omit the description for when illustrating of the present invention.
If the user (101) holding non-contact IC card (103) passes through ticket checking machine, in ticket checking machine (102), then storing the user ID for identifying IC-card (103) and comprising positional information by Time of Day etc., being stored in the server (105) that Transportation Enterprises manages as raw data.These data while storage, or are being sent to data server (111) about the part needed via network (104) every one hour or the timing suitable every a day etc.The traffic analysis system (107) be made up of data server (111) and the server zone of calculation server (112), information sending server (113) is connected with network (104), can communicate with user, Transportation Enterprises (115,117).Therefore, such as Transportation Enterprises (115) can make the such other system of traffic analysis system (107) and operation management system and IC-card data management system cooperate.In addition, in the present embodiment, server zone as data server (111), calculation server (112), information sending server (113) is illustrated, but can be configured to the function being performed these server zones by one or more server.
Data server (111) receives the data of the user that the IC-card reading terminals such as ticket checking machine read via network (104), be recorded in the data store (121) in server.The data of carrying out collecting, store comprise traffic system IC-card data (122), the basic master data (123) etc. relevant to station/bus station or route.And then store time processing has been carried out to traffic system IC-card data (122) etc. and obtain mobile daily record data (124), schedule plan (125), real time table (126) generated by traffic analysis system (107), path preference pattern data (127) etc. that uses when the path of presumption passenger.About the basic master data (123) associated with station and route, there iing the situation of change or carrying out more suitably inputting from the outside of system under news and carrying out upgrading/record.
In calculation server (112), carry out following process, namely according to being stored in the process of the data genaration Mobile data in data server (111), the process of the mobile route of presumption passenger, the process etc. of presumption real time table.Calculation server (112) is primarily of network interface (I/F (A)) (130), CPU (131), storer (132), storage part (133) composition.Network interface is for interface connected to the network.Storage part (133) comprises data store (139), this data store (139) storing mobile daily record generator program (134), path program for estimating (135), utilizes route program for estimating (136), real time table program for estimating (137), by bus train program for estimating (138) supervisor group, the result of computing, the statistical value obtained and desired value etc.Storage part is such as hard disk drive, CD-ROM drive, flash memory etc.In addition, can split in multiple pen recorder and record various program, various data.
When performing each program group, temporarily be stored into storer (132) after data server (111) reading becomes the data of analytic target, perform after each program (134,135,136,137,138) being read into storer with CPU (131), realize various function thus.The execution timing of these programs can in the timing of the such as request of operator (119), user, Transportation Enterprises (115,117), or carry out when new data being added to data server (111) at every turn, or as batch processing, the time that can determine in every day automatically processes.
Information sending server (113) possesses network interface (I/F (B)) (145), CPU (146), storer (147) and pen recorder (148).Network interface is the interface for being connected with network.The various program of recording device records, various data are such as hard disk drive, CD-ROM drive, flash memory etc.In addition, also can split in multiple pen recorder and record various program, various data.
Information sending server (113) to be resolved with reference to real time table, the stream of people that employs generated real time table via network (114) and the server of analysis result of delay situation etc. from the information terminal (118) of personal digital assistant device (116) or fixed for Transportation Enterprises, user (115,117).Pen recorder (148) comprises display frame generator program (141), information transmission program (142).CPU (146) performs after the various programs be recorded in pen recorder (148) are read into storer, performs various function thus.
Fig. 2 is the figure representing the data of representative and the structure of traffic system IC-card data (122) stored in data server (111).First, traffic system IC-card data (122) comprise daily record ID (201), become the user ID (202) of object, according to the ID (203) of the information and the station that links together and bus station that have passed which digital independent terminal, have passed this reading terminals service time (204) and enter the station or the information such as the use classes (205) of departures etc.Here use classes is the information be expressed as follows: such as if ticket checking machine or access door etc. are then " entering the station " or " departures " if merchandise sales terminal etc. is then process classifications such as " purchases ".Traffic system IC-card data (122) can send when each newly-generated data, or also can send together using the late into the night tailed off.In data server (111) side, as one man carry out stores processor with the timing of this transmission.
Fig. 3 represents the kind of master data (123) and the figure of respective data structure that store in data server (111).First, the relevant master data in the place of means of conveyance and master site (300) can be utilized with station, bus station, road etc. to comprise station/bus station ID (301), station/automobile name of station (302), hold the information such as information (305) of the locations (304) such as company (303), residence, Latitude-Longitude.When having change in the structure of station, bus station and route, road, carry out adding or revising of data at any time.Comprise route ID (311) for identifying route about the master data of route and main road line (310), route name (312), operator (313), difference be the information such as railway route or the route type of automobile route (314).Master data and main station/bus station-route relation (320) for associating station and route comprise the route ID (321) for identifying route, the station/bus station ID (322) included by this route and management station/bus station order serial number (323), identify be stop or the classification passed through (324) and from the off need the information such as time (325).When such as station and bus station, route and road have change, when each change from its exterior input shown in Fig. 1 and renewal/record master data (123).
Fig. 4 is the figure of the data structure represented for being stored in the mobile daily record data (124) stored in data server (111).Mobile daily record data (124) comprises the daily record ID (401) identifying daily record and the user ID (402) becoming object, represent the date-time (403) by bus of the time of the utilization starting means of conveyance in departure place, represent the date-time of getting off (404) finishing the time of the utilization of means of conveyance at place of arrival, represent the payment (405) of the mobile expense spent, boarding station/bus station ID1 (406), debarkation stop/bus station ID1 (407), boarding station/bus station ID2 (408), the information such as debarkation stop/bus station ID2 (409).This moves daily record data (124) is use traffic system IC-card data (122) etc. and data after the time processing that generates.
Fig. 5 is the figure of the data structure represented for being stored in the schedule plan (125) stored in data server (111).Schedule plan data (125) comprise the information for timetable ID (501), its route ID (502) of recognition time table, stop or bus station (503), time of arrival (504) and departure time (505).
Fig. 6 illustrates to generate mobile daily record data (124) according to traffic system IC-card data (122), is stored in the figure of the treatment step of the mobile generator program (134) in data server (111).Here carry out a batch processing about the stores processor to data server (111) with the time determined in every day to be described.First, the user ID (202) comprised with reference to the traffic system IC-card data (122) newly collected and service time (204), according to user ID order and time sequencing, (treatment step 601) is sorted to all data.Then for the following same treatment (treatment step 602) of the quantity of the Data duplication user ID after treatment step 601 sorts.First, initialization (treatment step 603) is carried out by with boarding station/bus station ID, by bus date-time, debarkation stop/bus station ID, row phenotypic variance that date-time of getting off is corresponding.Then for process (treatment step 604) identical below the Data duplication arranged according to time sequencing.First, carry out situation differentiation (treatment step 605) by the value of use classes (205), process respectively.When the value of use classes (205) be enter the station time, first confirm in same subscriber and whether there is previous departures daily record (treatment step 606) in daily record on the same day, when there is departures daily record, judge that the difference of the date-time of riding of this get off date-time and current log is whether within predefined threshold value (treatment step 607).This threshold value is the value of the transfer for judging multiple vehicles, preferably arranges in the scope of dozens of minutes in such as a few minutes.If the difference on date time getting off of previous departures daily record and date riding time of current log is within threshold value, then be considered as continuing a series of movement, value (treatment step 608) is added to the list of boarding station/bus station ID and date-time of riding.When exceeding threshold value, the time of considering from previous movement is very idle, therefore, it is possible to judge that previous mobile message is divide here.Therefore the value of variable is stored in (treatment step 609) in mobile daily record data (124), again by initialization of variable (treatment step 610).If there is no, when corresponding previous departures daily record, value (treatment step 611) is added to the list of boarding station/bus station ID and date-time of riding.When the value of use classes (205) is departures, value (treatment step 612) is added to the variable of debarkation stop/bus station ID and date-time of getting off.At the end of the re-treatment for 1 user ID to variable set up value, the value of variable is stored in (treatment step 613) in mobile daily record data.Here, daily record ID (201) is remained sequence number.Here set in advance as the transfer time of standard for the threshold value t that determines whether to carry out a series of movement.The permissible range of transfer time can be adjusted by this threshold value t.The threshold value relevant with the transfer time of standard be on the occasion of, as common value in all networks of communication lines, also different values can be set to each region.
Fig. 7 illustrates the figure utilizing the treatment step of route program for estimating (136) utilizing route using mobile daily record data (124) to estimate each mobile daily record.Process is repeated the quantity of mobile daily record (treatment step 701).First by the multiple path of search Reference search from boarding station to debarkation stop (treatment step 702,703).In the present embodiment routing benchmark is described as time priority benchmark, the preferential benchmark of number of transfer, the preferential benchmark of expense these three kinds.The routing benchmark that can use is not limited to these three kinds.Then, all paths searched are judged whether the path that moving direction is identical exists more than predetermined threshold (treatment step 704).
Here, Fig. 8 is used to describe the details for the treatment of step 704 in detail.Fig. 8 represents to search for result from boarding station (801) to the mobile route of debarkation stop (802) by time priority benchmark, the preferential benchmark of number of transfer, the preferential benchmark of expense.Time priority path (803) pass course 1 (809) is mobile to station C (808), changes to arrive debarkation stop (802) at route 2 (811).Number of transfer preferred path (804) is identical with expense preferred path (805), utilizes route 3 (810) to arrive debarkation stop (802).When there being above-mentioned path, consider route 3 as object to estimate real time table.
At this moment, in the technology that patent documentation 2 is recorded, the mobile daily record from the boarding station of Fig. 8 to debarkation stop can not be used for the presumption of the real time table of route 3.Comprise the path utilizing route 1 and 2 via station C and B from the path of boarding station, therefore not necessarily can determine the daily record being the use of route 3 uniquely.
To this, in the traffic analysis system of the present embodiment, at treatment step 704, whether identical in order to judge the moving direction in searched for path, confirm the last station (being station A in the presumption of route 3) of the debarkation stop in each path.By confirming that the last station of debarkation stop is whether the probability at which station is high, which route presumption uses reach debarkation stop.As concrete method, setting on the basis of predetermined threshold value in advance, by judging whether the path (about number of transfer, expense or time etc. compared with other routes, having the path of certain rational advantage) that is applicable to exceedes this threshold value to carry out via the probability of station A.In the example of fig. 8, in 3 paths, the last station of the debarkation stop of 2 paths (number of transfer preferred path (804) and expense preferred path (805)) is station A (806), route 3 (810) is used to arrive debarkation stop (802), in 3 paths, the last station of the debarkation stop of 1 path (time priority path (803)) is station B, uses route 2 (811) to arrive debarkation stop (802).At this moment, such as predetermined threshold value is if 0.5, then in 3 paths, 2 paths (0.67) exceed threshold value, therefore at least carries out the probability of movement via station A high.In other words, use the probability of route 3 (810) high.Therefore estimating this daily record is the daily record using route 3 (810) to arrive the user of debarkation stop (802).At this moment, is recorded as candidate time of arrival (treatment step 705) of the debarkation stop of this route the time getting off of this daily record.
Like this, the traffic analysis system of the present embodiment uses to utilize the passenger of the vehicles to move daily record to estimate the traffic analysis system of the real time table of predetermined route, it is characterized in that, have: path presumption unit (135), its presumption is from the starting station of mobile daily record to multiple mobile routes at arrival station; Utilize route presumption unit (136), when its path at the last station at the arrival station via this route is more than predetermined threshold, is estimated as this and moves the daily record that daily record is this route of use arrival arrival station; Real time table presumption unit (137), it is shown according to by utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to employ the time getting off of the mobile daily record of this route to estimate the real time.
Or, a kind of is use to utilize the mobile daily record of the passenger of the vehicles to estimate the traffic analysis method (and comprising the program performing this traffic analysis method and the storage medium storing this program) of the real time table of projected route, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps: the step (702) estimating the multiple mobile routes from the starting station of mobile daily record to arrival station, when in multiple mobile route via the path at the last station at the arrival station of this route more than predetermined threshold time, estimate this and move the step (704) that daily record is the daily record using this route arrival arrival station, according to by the time getting off utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to employ the mobile daily record of this route, the step (1001-1005) of presumption real time table.
By above-mentioned feature, use the presumption of the daily record in the path of this route to compare with employing as described in Patent Document 2 only to exist, the daily record for estimating can being increased further, the precision of presumption can be improved as a result further.
Here, when the time getting off of mobile daily record records the actual ticket checking departures time, error is produced time of arrival with train.Therefore, in treatment step 705, the time getting off of mobile daily record can be revised according to predetermined information.As predetermined information, such as, can use from the average traveling time etc. this route in-track platform to ticket checking of stop.
Fig. 9 represents that the route that utilizes utilizing route program for estimating (136) estimates the figure of an example of the result of process.Record is estimated as the quantity of the mobile daily record using this route to get off at this station in each time at each station of each route.General passenger expects not to be detained after train is got off and from ticketing spot departures, therefore considers to concentrate multiple mobile daily record near train time of arrival.
Figure 10 is the figure of an example of the treatment step that real time table program for estimating (137) is described.According to each route processing real time table presumption step (treatment step 1001).First, small correction (treatment step 1002) is increased to the schedule plan of this route.As the increase method revised, the overall or each train of consideration timetable or at each station by the method staggered about several seconds to a few minutes around time of arrival of setting out.Then, calculate revised schedule plan with by the consistent degree (treatment step 1003) employing the time getting off of the mobile daily record of this route utilizing route program for estimating (136) to carry out to estimate.As consistent degree, the quantity of the mobile daily record that train time of arrival of revised schedule plan can be used consistent with the time getting off.If because time getting off of mobile daily record comprises error, predetermined threshold value is set and the difference of the train time of arrival of revised schedule plan and time getting off within threshold value, then can be judged to be consistent.If this correction schedule plan for maximum, is then recorded as real time table (treatment step 1005) by consistent degree in the consistent degree so far calculated.Consistent degree is that maximum correction schedule plan was recorded in data server (111) as real time table (126) the most at last.General little planned timetable and real time show situation about significantly deviating from, and therefore can be carried out the presumption of table of more high-precision real time by said method.
Figure 11 is the figure utilizing an example of the presumption result hint image of route program for estimating (136) and real time table program for estimating (137) representing that display frame generator program (141) carries out.Operator (119) can pass through drop-down menu (1102) selection schemer in picture (1101).In display frame (1103) show select route utilize route estimate result (1104) and schedule plan (1105), the real time table presumption result (1106).When practical, table presumption result is wrong, operator (119) can use cursor (1107) to revise real time table (1106).When revising real time table, operator can easily be held in time shaft be should front revise or in the opposite direction revise etc., and be improved the information of the precision of correction, therefore as shown in Figure 11 operator can revise intuitively the real time table GUI be useful.
Figure 12 is the figure of an other example of the treatment step that real time table program for estimating (137) is described.According to each route processing real time table presumption step (treatment step 1201).Then, in this route, carry out the process (treatment step 1202) at each station.Determine to represent the time getting off (treatment step 1203) according to the time getting off of the usage log at each station.Representing the time getting off when referring to that the daily record that makes the time getting off close to each other is included in same section set splitting mobile daily record, representing the time getting off of above-mentioned part set.
Here, Figure 13 is used to describe the determining method representing the time getting off in detail.The representatively determining method of time getting off, clustering method is most suitable.When the number of run of a day of this route is known, the K method of average and the such clustering method of mixed Gauss model can be used, when number of run the unknown, the clustering method that Di Li Cray (Dirichle) process mixture model is such can be used.Known technology can be used, therefore detailed about these clustering methods.By application clustering method, the time getting off of daily record that utilizes of this route can be divided into multiple cluster (from Figure 13 epimere to stage casing).Then, by determining the typical value of divided cluster, can obtain and represent the time getting off (Figure 13 hypomere).About typical value determining method, in cluster the mean value of time getting off or intermediate value, mode etc. more suitable.Utilize the time getting off of daily record to obtain to represent the time getting off like this according to this route, the route that utilizes utilizing daily record to comprise can be removed thus and estimate the mistake etc. of result.
Then, real time table program for estimating (137) carries out the process (treatment step 1204) between each station.Obtain the correlativity of the representative time getting off at certain station and next station, obtain the mistiming τ that correlativity becomes maximum, what mistiming τ is set to this station and next station on average needs the time (treatment step 1205).Correlativity when computing time, difference was τ by formula 1.
[formula 1]
Here, X (t) is the sequence of the representative time getting off storing this station, is when representing the time getting off at moment t, and X (t) is 1.Y (t) is the sequence of the representative time getting off of the next stop storing this station.When this station and the next stop on average need the time to be τ time, if the time t of being set to is the representative time getting off at this station, then expect that time t+ τ becomes the representative time getting off of the next stop.Therefore, when τ is the average required time of this station and the next stop, correlativity is maximum.An example of the result of calculation of correlativity is represented at Figure 14.
Then, real time table difference program for estimating (137) search time and the representative time getting off on average needing the time close between the station that treatment step 1205 calculates, real time table (treatment step 1206) is generated thus.Representative moment of getting off likely comprises defect, so can revise real time table (treatment step 1207) by carrying out interpolation to defect.Figure 15 represents the process concept map for the treatment of step 1206 and treatment step 1207.By connecting the representative time getting off (1502) on average needing the next stop of time between the station that to become with the mistiming of representative time getting off (1501) at certain station and calculate at treatment step 1205, generating the real time shows.Interpolation (1504) is carried out for the defect part representing the time getting off.
Like this, real time table program for estimating (137) when can application plan timetable, application plan timetable estimates real time table, even if when can not also the time on average can be needed between time getting off and station to estimate real time table by calculating represent when application plan timetable.
Figure 16 is the process flow diagram of an example of the treatment step representing train program for estimating (138) by bus.Process is repeated the quantity of mobile daily record (treatment step 1601).First, route searching (treatment step 1602,1603) is carried out according to each path preference pattern be recorded in path preference pattern data (127) that data server (111) stores.The routing benchmark of the passenger considered when storing at route searching in path preference pattern data (127).Routing benchmark except consider to select to arrive the path of debarkation stop the earliest " time priority benchmark ", select " the changing to preferential benchmark " in the minimum path of number of transfer, path that sorting charge is the most cheap " the preferential benchmark of expense ", select train the most empty path " avoiding crowded benchmark " except, also to consider to take a seat in crowded train, from boarding station to advancing with debarkation stop reverse direction, returning to the starting station of this route and preferentially guaranteeing " the preferential benchmark in seat " at seat etc.By station is set to node, the circuit connected between station is set to edge, network of railways is showed by graph structure, weight between station is set to required time, number of transfer, expense, crowding respectively, solve shortest route problem by the such algorithm of Di Jiesitela (Dijkstra) algorithm thus, thus realize about time priority benchmark, change to preferential benchmark, the preferential benchmark of expense, avoid the route searching of crowded benchmark.About the solution of shortest route problem, can known technology be used, therefore omit detailed description.
Here, Figure 17 is used to describe the route searching of the preferential benchmark in seat in detail.When the path (1703) from boarding station (1701) to debarkation stop (1702) is crowded, by selecting the once path (1705) of backward debarkation stop (1702) of turning back to the starting station (1704) of reverse direction, preferentially taken a seat in the starting station (1704) by the increase of traveling time.This seat preferred path (1705) can be searched for by trip path between boarding station (1701) and the starting station (1704) additional in the general path (1703) that search is complete.Select seat preferred path (1705) to be suitable when station quantity when station quantity between boarding station (1701) and the starting station (1704) is few or from boarding station (1701) to debarkation stop (1704) is many, can search for when the station quantity when station quantity therefore between boarding station (1701) and the starting station (1704) is below predetermined threshold or when from boarding station (1701) to debarkation stop (1704) is more than predetermined threshold.In addition, also have according to Transportation Enterprises and forbid such situation by bus of turning back.At this moment, object of the present invention is not that user is recommended in above-mentioned prohibitive behavior, but by increasing the preferential benchmark in seat to route searching candidate, holds such actual state by bus of turning back by Transportation Enterprises.
Then, train program for estimating (138) carries out train presumption (treatment step 1604,1605) by bus to each path searched for by bus.Use Figure 18 that the details of train presumption is by bus described.First, use the riding time of mobile daily record (1801) and show by the real time real time that program for estimating (137) deduces and show the train that (126) determine the time of departure (1802) that riding time (1801) is later nearest.Be when having one's ticket punched the time when riding time (1801) of mobile daily record is actual, the timetable being added predetermined presumption traveling time can be used.In fact the traveling time from the ticket checking of passenger to entraining point has fluctuation, does not therefore limit the train can taken from nearest time of departure (1802) riding time (1801).Therefore the train of the next time of departure (1803) is also added to train waiting bowl spares by bus.Even if too the train at multiple time of departure is added to train waiting bowl spares by bus in transfer stop (1804).The quantity of the train being added to train waiting bowl spares by bus can be given by threshold value etc.Then, when the time getting off of mobile daily record, (1805) were the departures time, departures time (1807) relatively after adding predetermined presumption traveling time the time of arrival (1806) of train candidate of riding and the departures time (1805) of mobile daily record, nearest is set to train by bus.Finally in searching route, the departures time (1805) of mobile daily record and train of riding are estimated departures time (1807) nearest the exporting as train of riding of candidate.In the present embodiment, the departures time (1805) of mobile daily record and train of riding are estimated departures time (1807) nearest the exporting as train of riding of candidate, but train presuming method is not limited thereto by bus, such as, also can determine ride train from multiple ride of difference within predetermined threshold of the departures time (1807) of the departures time (1805) and train presumption candidate of riding of such as moving daily record trains presumption candidates according to predetermined priority.In the present embodiment, carry out train presumption (treatment step 1605) by bus employing route searching (treatment step 1603) and real time table (126) respectively, but also can carry out the search considering real time table (126) when route searching (treatment step 1603).
Figure 19 is the figure of the example of the presumption result hint image of train program for estimating (138) by bus representing display frame generator program (141).Operator (119) is if select any station (1902) on the route map in picture (1901), then the routing ratio of the passenger at this station is shown as constructional surface chart (1904) in picture (1903).The horizontal axis representing time of constructional surface chart (1904), the longitudinal axis is the detailed content of the routing benchmark being represented the mobile daily record presumption of this station passenger according to this time by number.Easily can hold the ratio of the routing benchmark at the station of hope or the situation of its change, therefore the GUI of Figure 19 is useful.The reminding method of the ratio of routing benchmark is not limited to constructional surface chart, also can use pie chart etc.In addition, not only can the routing ratio of prompt passengers, also can point out the routing ratio of the passenger that gets off, operator (119) can not only select station, also can selection schemer.
Claims (9)
1. a traffic analysis system, it uses the mobile daily record that make use of the passenger of the vehicles to estimate the real time table of predetermined route, and the feature of this traffic analysis system is to have:
Path presumption unit, its presumption is from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile daily record to multiple mobile routes at arrival station;
Utilize route presumption unit, when it is more than predetermined threshold value via the path at the last station at the above-mentioned arrival station of above-mentioned route in above-mentioned multiple mobile route, estimating above-mentioned mobile daily record is the daily record utilizing above-mentioned route to arrive above-mentioned arrival station; And
Real time table presumption unit, it estimates table of above-mentioned real time according to the above-mentioned time getting off utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to make use of the above-mentioned mobile daily record of above-mentioned route.
2. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Revise above-mentioned schedule plan, make the time getting off of mobile daily record of each above-mentioned route and the consistent degree of schedule plan become maximum, and above-mentioned revised schedule plan is set to table of above-mentioned real time.
3. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Split the mobile daily record of each above-mentioned route and the daily record making the time getting off close to each other is included in same section set, carry out obtaining the computing of the representative time getting off representing above-mentioned part set, represent above-mentioned the presumption result that the time getting off is set to train time of arrival of above-mentioned route.
4. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Above-mentioned correlativity is be set to the maximum mistiming on average to need the time between above-mentioned adjacent station by the computing of the correlativity between the adjacent station of carrying out the mobile daily record obtaining each above-mentioned route.
5. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Also have display part, it shows time getting off of the mobile daily record of each above-mentioned route, schedule plan or table of above-mentioned real time in same frame.
6. traffic analysis system according to claim 5, is characterized in that,
Also there is the correction portion of the real time table revised on above-mentioned picture.
7. traffic analysis system according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
For above-mentioned mobile daily record, also there is train presumption unit respectively by bus, its comprising time priority benchmark, change to preferential benchmark, the preferential benchmark of fare, avoid at least one benchmark in the preferential benchmark of crowded benchmark or seat to search for arriving multiple path at above-mentioned arrival station from above-mentioned starting station time, show to estimate the train moving above-mentioned passenger corresponding to daily record with this and ride by using the above-mentioned real time.
8. traffic analysis system according to claim 7, is characterized in that,
Also there is display part, the ratio of the routing benchmark that namely its result showing the presumption of train by bus of above-mentioned train presumption unit by bus estimates.
9. a traffic analysis method, it uses the mobile daily record that make use of the passenger of the vehicles to estimate the real time table of predetermined route, and the feature of this traffic analysis method is,
There are following steps:
Estimate the step from the starting station of above-mentioned mobile daily record to multiple mobile routes at arrival station;
When being more than predetermined threshold value via the path at the last station at the above-mentioned arrival station of above-mentioned route in above-mentioned multiple mobile route, estimating above-mentioned mobile daily record is the step utilizing above-mentioned route to arrive the daily record at above-mentioned arrival station; And
According to the above-mentioned time getting off utilizing route presumption unit to be estimated as to make use of the above-mentioned mobile daily record of above-mentioned route, estimate the step of table of above-mentioned real time.
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| JP7453110B2 (en) | 2020-09-23 | 2024-03-19 | 公益財団法人鉄道総合技術研究所 | Estimation device and estimation method |
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| JP2016030473A (en) | 2016-03-07 |
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