CN102999695A - Subway construction safety risk identification and evaluation system and working method thereof - Google Patents
Subway construction safety risk identification and evaluation system and working method thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of engineering risk identification and provides a subway construction safety risk identification and evaluation system and a working method thereof. The system comprises a user interface module, a project newly-building module, a risk identification information base module, a risk base module, a risk evaluation knowledge base module, a matching algorithm module and a risk evaluation module. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly receiving information of a user newly-built project, reminding a user of selecting and determining risk identification information according to a project design file, combining with a risk base and a matching algorithm to generate a risk identification list, and identifying all potential safety risks of the project to be evaluated; and then performing risk evaluation, generating a risk evaluation list, utilizing a risk evaluation calculation model to perform risk evaluation calculation, and finally acquiring a subway project construction safety risk identification and evaluation result. The invention relates to a pre-evaluation technical scheme for realizing subway construction safety risk identification and evaluation based on the design file before construction.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to engineering risk identification field, particularly a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation system and method for work thereof take Engineering Documents as object.
Background technology
Subway work has large, changeable, the security risk high of construction environment complicated condition of difficulty of construction, and the subway work security risk is the main challenge that subway work faces.In present subway work process, Safety Management mainly relies on possesses the slip-stick artist who enriches practical experience, and in the high-speed developing period of China's subway construction, the technician's quantity that possesses corresponding quality is difficult to satisfy the demand of Practical Project; Utilize and manually to carry out Safety Management, with individual's specialized capability, condition etc. close contacting arranged, the Safety Management quality can the larger fluctuation of corresponding generation.When larger variation occurs in some factor, even experienced slip-stick artist is difficult to also guarantee that the working-yard does not go out security incident.
External research for the subway work secure context mainly concentrates on to be assessed the risk that has identified, but the rare document of the scientific approach of risk identification is inquired into.Do not carry out arrangement and the research of system for the relation of risk case and risk source.Aspect applied system research, the foreign scholar once on the basis of questionnaire and detailed inspection table, utilized fuzzy theory development risk assessment software to be used for the metro safety assessment; Also there is in addition the scholar to be used for the construction safety monitoring based on radio network technique and GIS Development constructing tunnel face mould plan system.The safety management in the work progress is paid close attention in these researchs and application mostly, the safety assessment before constructing is had no relate to.
The time that China's subway construction begins is evening, and therefore the research history aspect subway work risk identification and evaluation is not long.The scholar of China's association area sums up and the study domestic and foreign experience in the subway engineering practice, is doing a lot of fruitful researchs and practice aspect the identification and evaluation of subway work security risk.But in existing achievement in research, bias toward equally the A+E to construction safety risk, it is careful not then to expose research aspect risk identification, and the risk source research and comparison is coarse, the not deep enough problem of relation research between risk source and the risk case.Adopt a lot of of qualitative examination, can utilize instrument to carry out quantitative research seldom.
Doctor Yu Hongliang of the Central China University of Science and Technology was having deep analysis and research aspect the reasoning of subway risk, carry out summarizes for the relation between subway work risk source and the risk case, and developed the subway work security risk automatic recognition system based on engineering drawing.This system is making useful exploration aspect the subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation.But also there are a lot of weak points in this system, be mainly reflected in: this system sets up between risk source and risk case when related, do not have to take open structure, the science of the relation between risk source and the risk case is difficult to adjust according to actual conditions; Risk case can not carry out space orientation and the timi requirement on the construction stage at the construction field (site), causes the identification of risk case too coarse; Risk assessment is too simple, and the accuracy of its risk assessment value is difficult to reach the requirement of site construction management.Therefore, the meaning that this system is larger is theoretical research, is applied to reality and also has a lot of deficiencies, need to significantly improve and develop.
Can find out from above-mentioned research: subway work security risk identification and estimate existing more achievement in research and application case, and can be directly not yet obtain substantive breakthroughs for the subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation method of construction application with accordingly system development.
Summary of the invention
Purpose of the present invention is exactly for above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, provide a kind of before construction, subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation system and method for work thereof take Engineering Documents as object are exclusively used in and realize a kind of technical scheme of assessing based on the subway work Safety Pre of Engineering Documents.
A kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation of the present invention system comprises Subscriber Interface Module SIM, the newly-built module of project, risk identification information bank module, risk library module, risk assessment base module, matching algorithm module and risk assessment module.
Subscriber Interface Module SIM, be used for realizing user interactions: one is set up project to be evaluated, project is carried out the division of unit project aspect; The required key message of its two input project construction security risk identification to be evaluated is in order to carry out security risk identification; Its three importation causes dangerous factor value; It four feeds back to the user with evaluation result.
The newly-built module of project, be used for new project information, for risk identification is set up identifying object, set up successively the layer of structure of project to be evaluated according to construction project, single construction, unit project, in order in the risk identification information bank, carry out determining of risk identification information take unit project as object.
Risk identification information bank module based on the subway work characteristics, take risk identification as purpose, is set up the relevant disjunction structures storage to subway unit project and each crucial engineering method information.
In order to carry out the identification work of security risk, need to make up security risk identifying information storehouse and risk storehouse, security risk identifying information storehouse and risk storehouse are the cores of risk identification.Which security risk subway work produces, and is directly related with the main engineering method that adopts.Can say what engineering method is certain project adopt, just determine the contingent security risk of this project.The subway work engineering method has the characteristics of tree structure level.Large engineering method mainly contains open cut, tunneling, lid digs and four kinds of shield structures, and the subway work project all has the unicity characteristics of large engineering method on the unit project aspect, and namely a unit project can be selected a kind of large engineering method.Therefore, security risk identifying information storehouse is take the subway unit project as object, for emphasis construction content (such as building enclosure form, support system, precipitation etc.), to adoptable main engineering method classification storage.The user treats assessment item according to project reality and carries out the division of unit project aspect and newly-built, the large engineering method of selecting every unit project to adopt, and continue to select the engineering method of emphasis construction content, can set up the risk identification information of project to be assessed.Information in this risk identification information and the risk storehouse is mated unit's calculation, can identify all contingent construction safety risks of project to be assessed, forms security risk identification inventory.The present invention sets up security risk identifying information storehouse by subway unit project and each engineering method are set up the relevant disjunction structures storage, and information and risk library information by security risk identifying information storehouse carry out matching operation, realization subway work security risk recognition function.
The risk library module, define the relation of all subway work security risks and construction, define the risk conversion factor of each risk under the large engineering method of difference, define the risk conversion factor of each risk in the different construction stages, define the weight of each engineering parameter class, define the loss grade of each risk, define each prevention of risk and dispose suggestion.
The risk identification information bank extracts the security risk that is associated with project to be assessed by matching operation and forms the risk identification inventory from the risk storehouse; Risk assessment knowledge base, risk identification inventory and risk storehouse are calculated by coupling and are formed the risk assessment inventory.Matching operation is carried out in risk assessment module and risk storehouse, from the risk storehouse, extract each construction stage conversion factor, engineering parameter class weight, loss grade and the risk-aversion Disposal Measures of risk to be evaluated and carry out risk assessment calculating, to determine risk class, form last evaluation result inventory.The present invention is by setting up the risk storehouse, and the key message of risk identification and evaluation is carried out structured storage take the risk time as object, becomes the core of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation.
The risk assessment base module, store the engineering parameter relevant with the subway work security risk, define the security risk in the associated risk storehouse of each engineering parameter, the possible value of definition engineering parameter, define security risk reliability corresponding to each value, the information that the risk assessment knowledge base comprises and risk identification inventory generate the risk assessment inventory by matching operation, calculate for security risk evaluations and prepare.By setting up the risk assessment knowledge base, security risk and engineering parameter foundation is related, carry out structured storage take each engineering parameter as object, become the basis of subway work security risk evaluations.
The matching algorithm module, the matching operation in definition risk identification information bank and risk storehouse; The matching operation in definition security risk identification inventory and risk storehouse by setting up the matching operation module, realizes data retrieval and abstraction function between each database module, generates security risk identification inventory and security risk evaluations inventory.
The risk assessment module, the algorithm that the definition risk assessment is calculated, thus obtain last security risk evaluations result.Computing method are as follows:
Certain risk average risk degree
, wherein
Be the average degree that certain security risk event occurs, this average degree refers to the risk calculated in the situation of not considering the construction stage.
Be five engineering parameter classes (hydrogeological class, job design class, constructing operation class, weather class, environmental classes) for the reliability of this risk,
Weight for all kinds of engineering parameters.Q
1Be engineering method risk contribution coefficient, the engineering method value open cut here, tunneling, lid digs and four kinds of large engineering methods of shield structure to the contribution of the risk of concrete risk.
The risk of different construction stages of certain risk
, wherein
Be certain risk risk of different construction stages,
Risk conversion factor for certain risk construction stage.Wherein, j is the real number greater than zero, but generally speaking all between [0,2], because general unlikelyly enlarge risk more than 2 times once.
Divide because the risk identification inventory carries out risk case according to unit project, construction and construction stage for foundation, same risk case is owing to all existing in different unit projects, construction and construction stage and repeatedly occurring in the risk identification inventory.Only have that unit project, construction, construction stage, risk case are all identical just to become an independently risk case, its risk is calculated separately.Therefore, in risk assessment calculates, engineering method engineering parameter, construction stage engineering parameter are listed separately, appeared in the formula with the form of correction factor.
For certain concrete risk case, C(E
i) several concrete engineering parameters are arranged under the represented engineering parameter class.C(E then
i) value can by
Calculate, wherein, n is the integer greater than zero.
In conjunction with above three formulas, the weight of the engineering parameter under each engineering parameter class is the same, and the weight between each engineering parameter class is different.This conforms to the mode of thinking of engineering specialist when judging risk in the real work.When the engineering specialist judges concrete security risk, generally can be on the aspect of engineering parameter class all kinds of engineering parameter classes there be the micro-judgment of oneself to the contribution of risk case.And to belonging to the concrete engineering parameter of a class together, then do not have obvious importance difference, substantially treat according to equal importance.
Can be calculated the risk of concrete risk according to above three formulas.The high low reaction of risk the size of risk possibility occurrence.But except the estimated risk possibility occurrence, carry out comprehensive evaluation to the harm of engineering after also should will risk occuring, could reasonably determine the risk class size, the scientific and reasonable limited resources that utilize, and give and suitable countermeasure.
Classification has been carried out in loss to each risk in the risk storehouse.The risk of loss grade of determining in the risk result that the Rate of aggregative risk model calculates and the risk storehouse can obtain the risk class of each estimated risk.This risk class is determined method with reference to the relevant provision in " subway and underground engineering construction risk management guide ", and definite method of risk class and corresponding management principle are determined according to table 1 and table 2.
Table 1 risk class is determined table
Table 2 risk management principle table
The present invention also provides the method for work of a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation system, its core is the identification of subway work security risk and the structured storage of estimating knowledge, utilize matching operation and evaluation model to obtain subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation result, the method may further comprise the steps:
(1) newly-built project to be evaluated is divided successively according to construction project, single construction, unit project, forms the project structure of tree hierarchy;
(2) take the unit project of new project as object, in the risk identification information bank, determine risk identification information, namely each unit project is set up the independent risk identification information of a cover;
(3) according to the risk identification information of each unit project, use matching algorithm in the risk storehouse, to extract relevant risk, generate the risk identification inventory take unit project as object, the risk identification inventory shows the security risk that the constituent parts engineering may occur;
(4) according to the risk identification inventory, use matching algorithm in the risk assessment knowledge base, to extract the engineering parameter that is associated with each risk, generate the risk assessment inventory, the risk assessment inventory namely is on the basis of risk identification inventory, fills in relevant engineering parameter after each concrete risk;
(5) according to Engineering Documents, each engineering parameter value of input in the risk assessment inventory is to determine the corresponding risk reliability of each engineering parameter;
(6) computation model in the risk assessment module according to the information that provides in the risk assessment inventory, extracts required calculating parameter as foundation from the risk storehouse, finishes the calculating of each the risk risk in the risk assessment inventory;
(7) generate evaluation result, export to the user.
The generation method of described risk identification inventory is, according to the risk identification information bank, and the risk identification of identifying project information; Matching algorithm is retrieved all risk cases relevant with this identifying information according to project risk identification information in the risk storehouse; Take unit project as object, enumerate the risk case that all identify, generate the risk identification inventory for the risk evaluation.
The generation method of described risk assessment inventory is that according to the risk identification inventory, matching algorithm is retrieved the engineering parameter relevant with concrete risk case according to the risk case in the inventory in the risk assessment knowledge base; Take unit project as dividing foundation, take concrete risk case as object, every retrieval once just generates the related of a concrete risk case and its engineering parameter; All risk cases can generate the risk assessment inventory for the risk evaluation after search complete.
A kind of subway work security risk of the present invention discrimination and evaluation system and method for work thereof, structured storage is carried out in the identification of subway work security risk and evaluation knowledge, utilize matching operation and evaluation model to obtain subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation result, have following advantage:
One, in the prior art, the security risk Pre-Evaluation before the subway work, all be to rely on to organize the expert to open appraisal meeting, the expert is based on self knowledge and experience, review of design file, search the security risk that may exist in the construction stage, the prediction of risk class is too much relied on self experience.There is risk identification in such evaluation method and estimates problem not accurate enough and inefficiency.The present invention is with the expertise structuring, according to subway engineering characteristics and Construction Principle, structurized risk identification information bank, risk storehouse, risk assessment knowledge base have been designed, and matching algorithm module and risk assessment module, the method of employing system combines it, realized the subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation function before construction, the accuracy and efficiency that has improved identification and estimated.
Two, the characteristics of summary subway engineering and subway work engineering method have been developed the risk identification information bank for the metro project unit project.This risk identification information bank according to the needs of risk identification, has carried out structured storage to the main engineering method of subway work to identify fast risk as purpose from design document.In case determine risk identification information, can cooperate the risk storehouse to identify fast construction risk, greatly improved the accuracy and efficiency of subway work security risk identification.
Three, the informational needs of analysing in depth the identification of subway work security risk and estimating has been developed the risk storehouse.A large amount of information relevant with the subway work security risk have been integrated in this risk storehouse, and risk case and risk identification information, construction stage conversion factor, engineering parameter class weight, risk of loss grade are carried out structured storage, are beneficial to and carry out risk identification and evaluation.The risk storehouse is the core of whole system.
Four, summarizes subway engineering characteristics and Construction Principle have made up the risk assessment knowledge base, and security risk event and engineering parameter foundation is related, become the basis that risk assessment calculates.This risk assessment knowledge base is and the abstract and structured storage of security-related subway work standard clause and slip-stick artist's experience that its greatest feature is the information system management of subway work security knowledge, eliminates the randomness that traditional approach is brought by artificial evaluation.
Five, the risk source characteristics of further investigation subway work security risk, the engineering parameter that can cause and affect security risk is divided into construction class, construction stage class, hydrogeological class, job design class, constructing operation class, environmental classes, the several large classes of weather class, genesis mechanism in conjunction with concrete subway construction safety risk, set conversion factor or the Determining Weights of each engineering parameter class, utilize computing formula to obtain the risk of concrete risk.Judge risk class in conjunction with risk and risk of loss grade again, give corresponding Disposal Measures according to different risk class.With risk and risk of loss grade quantification, improved the defective that the Traditional Man method is difficult to quantitative evaluation.
Six, it is newly-built to carry out unit project level project, guarantees that each security risk can spatially can navigate to the Specific construction position; By determining less main engineering method information, identify fast constituent parts engineering construction safety risk; Set up the related of risk case and risk identification information, construction stage coefficient, engineering parameter class weight, risk of loss grade and risk Disposal Measures; The calculation risk degree, and in conjunction with risk and risk of loss grade, determine risk class, realize the quantification of risk assessment.
Seven, the user is with the key message input system of subway work design document, can before construction, obtain the discrimination and evaluation result of detailed programs construction safety risk, this result shows locus and the risk of different construction stages that risk occurs, and can determine risk class and corresponding Disposal Measures.The method is given in time and space with construction manager with the managerial technical support of construction safety risk, is conducive to work out corresponding construction adventure management measure, and efficient safety risk management is realized in the management working-yard that is conducive to purpose and stresses.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of subway work security risk of the present invention discrimination and evaluation system of systems structural drawing.
Fig. 2 is the method for work process flow diagram of a kind of subway work security risk of the present invention discrimination and evaluation system.
Wherein, Subscriber Interface Module SIM 10, the newly-built module 20 of project, risk identification information bank module 30, risk library module 40, risk assessment base module 50, matching algorithm module 60, risk assessment module 70.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and the specific embodiments the present invention is further detailed.
As shown in Figure 1, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation system, comprise Subscriber Interface Module SIM 10, the newly-built module 20 of project, risk identification information bank module 30, risk library module 40, risk assessment base module 50, matching algorithm module 60, risk assessment module 70, each module can adopt computer software to realize according to technical solution of the present invention by those skilled in the art.
Wherein, Subscriber Interface Module SIM 10, be used for realizing user interactions: one is set up project to be evaluated, project is carried out the division of unit project aspect; The required key message of its two input project construction security risk identification to be evaluated is in order to carry out security risk identification; Its three importations engineering parameter value; It four feeds back to the user with evaluation result.The above four input and output example is carried out example in conjunction with the explanation of back corresponding module.
The newly-built module 20 of project is to set up the layer of structure of project to be evaluated.The newly-built module of project is set up the layer of structure of project to be evaluated successively according to construction project, single construction, unit project, in order to carry out determining of risk identification information take unit project as object in the risk identification information bank.
Project to be assessed is newly-built can be undertaken by table 3 example.
Table 3 new project example
Risk identification information bank module 30 is bases of risk identification.Which security risk subway work produces, and is directly related with the main engineering method that adopts.Can say what engineering method is certain project adopt, just determine the contingent security risk of this project.The subway work engineering method has the characteristics of tree structure level.Large engineering method mainly contains open cut, tunneling, lid digs and four kinds of shield structures, and the subway work project all has the unicity characteristics of large engineering method on the unit project aspect, and namely a unit project can be selected a kind of large engineering method.Therefore, the risk identification information bank is take the subway unit project as object, for emphasis construction content (such as building enclosure form, support system, precipitation etc.), to adoptable main engineering method classification storage.The user treats assessment item according to project reality and carries out the division of unit project aspect and newly-built, the large engineering method of selecting every unit project to adopt, and continue to select the engineering method of emphasis construction content, can set up the risk identification information of project to be assessed.Information in this risk identification information and the risk storehouse is carried out matching operation, can identify all contingent construction safety risks of project to be assessed, forms the risk identification inventory.The present invention sets up the risk identification information bank by subway unit project and each engineering method are set up the relevant disjunction structures storage, and information and risk library information by the risk identification information bank carry out matching operation, realization subway work security risk recognition function.
Risk identification information bank example, as shown in table 4.
Table 4 risk identification information bank example
When treating assessment item and carrying out risk identification, according to the content of project construction design document, from the risk identification information bank, select to determine risk identification information, can obtain the risk identification information of project to be evaluated.Specifically as shown in table 5.
Table 5 risk identification information is determined example
Above risk identification information comprises large engineering method open cut, and the determining of concrete emphasis construction engineering method that content adopts, for concrete unit's engineering, only need definite a small amount of information, can be combined with the risk storehouse and carry out matching operation, identify this unit project construction safety risk.
The relation of risk library module 40 all subway work security risks of definition and construction, define the risk conversion factor of each risk under the large engineering method of difference, define the risk conversion factor of each risk in the different construction stages, define the weight of each engineering parameter class, define the loss grade of each risk, define each prevention of risk and dispose suggestion.The risk storehouse is the core of carrying out subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation.The risk identification information bank calculates by coupling and extract the security risk formation security risk identification inventory that is associated with project to be assessed from the risk storehouse.
The define method that below is each data in the above-mentioned risk library module 40 illustrates.
1. define the risk conversion factor of each risk under the large engineering method of difference, when adopting different large engineering methods, the degree of risk of concrete risk can be different, and concrete conversion factor quantizes to determine by index Evaluation Method.So that C.001 foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil is as example, this risk occurs in the metro station construction, and station construction can adopt two kinds of large engineering methods, reaches open cut and lid and digs.In metro station construction, mostly adopt cut and cover method, when only having surrounding enviroment not reach the open cut condition, just can adopt lid to dig.From the angle of engineering, cap excavation method is long in time limit, and investment is large, but working security is higher.The cut and cover method that the construction frequency is high is as the standard engineering method.The foundation ditch underflow sand flow folk song danger conversion factor of the metro station construction under cut and cover method is decided to be 1, compare with casualty data in the past, relatively lid digs the statistics that this accident occurs under the engineering method to occur under foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil accident and the cut and cover method, obtains the ratio of this risk frequency under this risk frequency of cap excavation method and the cut and cover method; Judge by experience, this ratio is adjusted, can obtain the risk conversion factor of foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil under the cap excavation method.This risk cut and cover method risk conversion factor is 1, and cap excavation method risk conversion factor is 0.4.
2. define the risk conversion factor of each risk in the different construction stages and adopt Delphi method to determine, same risk has significant difference in different construction stage risks, and this is relevant with the required necessary condition of risk generation.When a certain construction stage does not possess the risk occurrence condition, the possibility occurrence of this risk will greatly reduce even be zero.Take foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil C.001 as example, as adopt cut and cover method to carry out metro station construction, then foundation ditch underflow sand flow folk song danger is not all contingent at the construction stages, the condition that this risk occurs is that earth excavation is arranged, make and dig out the existing discrepancy in elevation in the foundation ditch, along with the discrepancy in elevation reaches maximum, then the possibility of this risk generation also reaches maximum.According to the technical process of cut and cover tunneling, whole work progress can be divided into double teacher, i.e. building enclosure construction/earth excavation/earth excavation+main structure construction/main structure construction/backfilling of earthwork.The risk conversion factor of determining these several stages adopts Delphi method.When building enclosure was constructed, the earthwork was not also excavated, and did not then have the possibility that foundation ditch underflow sand flow folk song danger occurs, and then the conversion of the risk of this construction stage is stated as 0; And in earth excavation, these two stages of earth excavation+main structure construction, all possessed the condition that this risk occurs.Excavated on earth at some construction section of foundation ditch according to previous experiences, when carrying out main structure construction, risk is maximum.Then the risk in these two stages is defined as 1 and 1.2 by the mode of marking; The main structure construction stage, be the earthwork excavate fully complete, the whole back covers of foundation ditch, the stage of carrying out main structure construction.Because the complete back cover of foundation ditch at this moment, the possibility that this risk occurs reduces greatly, and then the risk conversion factor of this one-phase is 0.2; During backfilling of earthwork, agent structure has been constructed complete, does not have the possibility that this risk occurs, and then this stage Risk conversion factor is 0.Therefore C.001 risk case is when cut and cover method carries out metro station construction, and each stage Risk conversion factor is 0/1/1.2/0.2/0.Above risk conversion factor all is to obtain by Delphi method.
3. define the weight of each engineering parameter class, each engineering parameter that causes concrete risk is different for the contribution degree of concrete risk, and concrete conversion factor quantizes to determine by the AHP method.When carrying out concrete risk case risk assessment, the present invention is according to the characteristic of each engineering parameter of subway work, each engineering parameter that will cause risk case is classified, be divided into hydrogeological class, job design class, constructing operation class, weather class, five types of environmental classes, calculate in order to carry out risk.When calculating the risk of concrete risk case, according to the characteristics of this risk case itself, five engineering parameter classes will be occupied different Determining Weights.Take C.004 building enclosure generation lateral shift, inclination as example, according to the research to this risk, the engineering parameter that causes this risk has three classes (hydrogeological class, job design class, constructing operation class), owing to need to determine that the factor of weight is less, can adopt simple 04 scoring, give a mark definite to the weight of three engineering parameter classes.
Can determine that then three associated engineering parameter class weights of this risk are 0.4/0.4/0.2.
4. define the loss grade of each risk, the severity degree that produces after each risk occurs is different, the loss grade of each risk should judge according to casualties and property loss information summary that risk occur to produce, sets the weight synthetic determination risk of loss grade of giving a mark by expert discussion.The risk of loss grade need to estimate to determine that personnel and property loss were estimated after namely risk occured from risk generation consequence.
The casualties grade
| Grade | The casualties standard | The consequence qualitative description |
| 5 | Without dead or slight wound arranged | Slightly |
| 4 | Death is less than 3 people (containing missing) or severely injured number 10 people once | Generally |
| 3 | Dead 3-10 people's (containing missing) or severely injured number 10-50 people | Larger |
| 2 | Death toll 10-30 people (containing missing) or severely injured number 50-100 people | Great |
| 1 | More than dead 30 people or more than severely injured number 30 people | Especially big |
The property loss grade
| Grade | Economic loss standard (ten thousand yuan) | The consequence qualitative description |
| 5 | Economic loss Z＜5 | Slightly |
| 4 | Economic loss 5≤Z＜10 | Generally |
| 3 | Economic loss 10≤Z＜50 | Larger |
| 2 | Economic loss 50≤Z＜500 | Great |
| 1 | Economic loss Z＞500 | Especially big |
The risk of loss grade
| The risk of loss grade | Criterion |
| A | Calamitous |
| B | Very serious |
| C | Seriously |
| D | Large/as to need to consider |
| E | Can ignore |
During evaluation risk of loss grade, estimate from casualties grade and two aspects of property loss grade, get loss grade high as the risk of loss grade.
Take foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil C.001 as example, think that in the least favorable situation, personal casualty loss will reach 4 grades (generally) when this risk occurs, and property loss will reach 2 and (great), therefore comprehensive judgement risk of loss grade should be the B level, and is namely very serious.
In sum, each data in the risk library module all are empirical datas, belong to prior art.Risk library structure example is as shown in table 6.
Table 6 risk library structure example
The following information of the content representation of table 6: AT STATION in the main body unit project, if adopt the large engineering method of open cut, will there be the risk of protuberance at the bottom of the foundation ditch in and full supporting or supporting+put the support form on slope.The possibility that this risk of cut and cover method occurs is large than cap excavation method, and the engineering method conversion factor of its cut and cover method is 1.1.Risk has remarkable difference according to several construction stages of building enclosure construction/earth excavation/earth excavation+main structure construction/main structure construction/backfilling of earthwork, therefore the risk conversion factor in each stage is 0/1/1.2/1/0, the risk that this risk is described is 0 when building enclosure construction and backfilling of earthwork, maximum when earth excavation+main structure construction.This conforms to practical risk situation in the metro station construction process.When this risk is carried out risk calculating, the engineering parameter class relevant with its risk only has hydrogeological class relevant with risk with the job design class, therefore according to practical engineering experience, the engineering parameter class weight of determining this risk is hydrogeological class 0.5/ job design class 0.5, and this parameter is the essential information of calculation risk when spending.
The risk of loss grade that this risk occurs is the C level, and namely this risk occurs engineering has been produced lighter loss.1. the measure that prevents this risk to occur has the foundation ditch bottom stratum consolidation 2. accelerate cushion construction and construction of bottom plates.
Take the content of table 5 as example, this station selects full supporting as the supporting construction form, therefore, take " full supporting " as the matching operation object, seeks all risks relevant with " full supporting " in the risk storehouse.And in the risk storehouse, according to the exemplary contents of table 6, have at least " protuberance at the bottom of the foundation ditch " such risk relevant with full supporting, thus can identifying at once, the construction of this project to be evaluated comprises " protuberance at the bottom of the foundation ditch " such risk at least.
Matching operation by risk identification information bank and risk storehouse can obtain the risk identification inventory.The inventory example is as shown in table 7.
Table 7 risk identification inventory example
This risk inventory is the project level during according to new project, according to the identification construction safety risk take unit project as object.
The risk assessment base module 50 storages engineering parameter relevant with the subway work security risk defines the security risk in the associated risk storehouse of each engineering parameter; The possible value of definition engineering parameter; Define security risk reliability corresponding to each value.Security risk reliability value is engineering parameter percentage contribution for risk case when getting certain occurrence, and in general the more dangerous risk reliability of value is larger.This value belongs to prior art for empirical data.
The information that the risk assessment knowledge base comprises and risk identification inventory generate the risk assessment inventory by matching operation, calculate for risk assessment and do the data preparation.The present invention is by setting up the risk assessment knowledge base, and security risk and engineering parameter foundation is related, carries out structured storage take each engineering parameter as object, becomes the basis of subway work security risk evaluations.
The content of risk assessment knowledge base is as shown in table 8.
Table 8 risk assessment knowledge base example
The risk storehouse is carried out structured storage according to the version of table 8 with risk assessment knowledge, sets up each engineering parameter class, each concrete engineering parameter is related with risk case.Risk assessment knowledge base, risk identification inventory and risk storehouse form the risk assessment inventory by matching operation.Risk assessment inventory example is as shown in table 9.
Table 9 risk assessment inventory example
Comparison sheet 9 and table 7 can be seen, the risk assessment inventory is exactly to have increased the related engineering parameter of each risk on the basis of risk identification inventory, and have listed corresponding value and risk reliability row.Increasing (1) after the engineering parameter numbering, is because in the other unit engineering, and this engineering parameter also may occur and again by assignment, therefore distinguish with (1), (2).Value needs the user according to the input of job design file, and the risk assessment knowledge base is retrieved according to the engineering parameter value of user's input by system.Determine that corresponding risk reliability is for risk assessment calculating use.
The risk assessment module is according to the content of risk assessment inventory, carry out matching operation with the risk storehouse, from the risk storehouse, extract each construction stage conversion factor, engineering parameter class weight, loss grade and the risk-aversion Disposal Measures of risk to be evaluated and carry out risk assessment calculating, to determine risk class, form last evaluation result inventory.
The matching operation in matching operation module 60 definition risk identification information banks and risk storehouse; The matching operation in definition security risk identification inventory and risk storehouse.The present invention realizes data retrieval and abstraction function between each database module by setting up the matching operation module, generates risk identification inventory and risk assessment inventory.
The risk identification information of the project to be assessed that matching operation module 60 is inputted with the user in the risk storehouse is retrieved corresponding risk and is formed the risk inventory.Its coupling is according to being risk identification information, such as above table 5 as described in the table 7.
Matching operation module 60 in the risk assessment knowledge base risk case in the risk identification inventory that generates as match objects, the engineering parameter that retrieval is associated with each risk case, generation risk assessment inventory.Its coupling is according to being risk case in the risk identification inventory, such as above table 7 as described in the table 9.
The algorithm that the 70 definition risk assessment of risk assessment module are calculated, thus last risk assessment result obtained.Computing method are as follows:
Certain risk average risk degree
, wherein
Be the average degree that certain security risk event occurs, this average degree refers to the risk calculated in the situation of not considering the construction stage.
Be five engineering parameter classes (hydrogeological class, job design class, constructing operation class, weather class, environmental classes) for the reliability of this risk,
Weight for all kinds of engineering parameters.Q
1Be engineering method risk contribution coefficient, the engineering method value open cut here, tunneling, lid digs and four kinds of large engineering methods of shield structure to the contribution of the risk of concrete risk.
The risk of different construction stages of certain risk
, wherein
Be certain risk risk of different construction stages,
Risk conversion factor for certain risk construction stage.Wherein, j is the real number greater than zero, but generally speaking all between [0,2], because general unlikelyly enlarge risk more than 2 times once.
Divide because the risk identification inventory carries out risk case according to unit project, construction and construction stage for foundation, same risk case is owing to all existing in different unit projects, construction and construction stage and repeatedly occurring in the risk identification inventory.Only have that unit project, construction, construction stage, risk case are all identical just to become an independently risk case, its risk is calculated separately.Therefore, in risk assessment calculates, engineering method engineering parameter, construction stage engineering parameter are listed separately, appeared in the formula with the form of correction factor.
For certain concrete risk case, C(E
i) several concrete engineering parameters are arranged under the represented engineering parameter class.C(E then
i) value can by
Calculate.
In conjunction with above three formulas, the weight of the engineering parameter under each engineering parameter class is the same, and the weight between each engineering parameter class is different.This conforms to the mode of thinking of engineering specialist when judging risk in the real work.When the engineering specialist judges concrete security risk, generally can be on the aspect of engineering parameter class all kinds of engineering parameter classes there be the micro-judgment of oneself to the contribution of risk case.And to belonging to the concrete engineering parameter of a class together, then do not have obvious importance difference, substantially treat according to equal importance.
Can be calculated the risk of concrete risk according to above three formulas.The high low reaction of risk the size of risk possibility occurrence.But except the estimated risk possibility occurrence, carry out comprehensive evaluation to the harm of engineering after also should will risk occuring, could reasonably determine the risk class size, the scientific and reasonable limited resources that utilize, and give and suitable countermeasure.
Classification has been carried out in loss to each risk in the risk storehouse.The risk of loss grade of determining in the risk result that the Rate of aggregative risk model calculates and the risk storehouse can obtain the risk class of each estimated risk.Definite method of risk class and respective risk management principle are determined according to table 1 and table 2.
Station main body risk foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil is as example in the table 9, and its related engineering parameter is that foundation ditch subsoil matter (FID.001), building enclosure enter rock state (FID.021), building enclosure is buried than reinforcing soft formation (FID.023), the inside and outside head difference (FID.024) of foundation ditch at the bottom of (FID.022), the foundation ditch.According to design document, its corresponding value is the FID.001=silty clay, retrieval risk identification knowledge base, its reliability=0.2, FID.021=does not enter rock, retrieval risk identification knowledge base, its reliability=0.7, FID.022=0.7, retrieval risk identification knowledge base, its reliability=0.4, FID.023=is unguyed, retrieval risk identification knowledge base, its reliability=0.8, FID.024=5m, retrieval risk identification knowledge base, its reliability=0.8.
Wherein FID.001 is hydrogeological class engineering parameter, and all the other four engineering parameters belong to the job design class.Look into the risk storehouse, this risk hydrogeology class and the weight of job design class engineering parameter when estimating calculating respectively are 0.5.The engineering method conversion factor of cut and cover method is 1.1, and then the average risk degree computation process of this risk is as follows:
XX station main body foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil average risk degree=1.1 0.2*0.5+[(0.7+0.4+0.8+0.8)/4] * 0.5=0.48
Look into the risk storehouse, the construction stage coefficient of this risk under cut and cover method+full supporting construction engineering method is 0/1/1.2/1/0, with the average risk degree respectively with each staged construction stage multiplication, can obtain the risk of each this risk of construction stage.
Building enclosure construction stage risk=0.48*0=0
Earth excavation stage Risk degree=0.48*1=0.48
Earth excavation+main structure construction stage Risk degree=0.48*1.2=0.58
Main structure construction stage Risk degree=0.48*1=0.48
Backfilling of earthwork stage Risk degree=0.48*0=0
Comprehensive above result of calculation, it is as shown in table 10 to obtain this risk assessment result.
Table 10 risk assessment result
In the table 10, the risk of loss grade can be retrieved in the risk storehouse and obtain, and risk class determines that according to the regulation of table 1 the risk management principle determines that according to the regulation of table 2 the risk-aversion measure can be retrieved and obtain in the risk storehouse.
As shown in Figure 2, present embodiment also provides the method for work of a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation system, and the method may further comprise the steps:
(1) newly-built project to be evaluated, the user treats assessment item according to the job design file and divides successively according to construction project, single construction, unit project, forms the project structure of tree hierarchy;
(2) take the unit project of new project as object, manually risk identification information is determined in input in the risk identification information bank, and namely each unit project is set up the independent risk identification information of a cover;
(3) according to the risk identification information of each unit project, use matching algorithm in the risk storehouse, to extract relevant risk, generate the risk identification inventory take unit project as object, the risk identification inventory shows the security risk that the constituent parts engineering may occur;
(4) according to the risk identification inventory, use matching algorithm in the risk assessment knowledge base, to extract the engineering parameter that is associated with each risk, generate the risk assessment inventory, the risk assessment inventory namely is on the basis of risk identification inventory, fills in relevant engineering parameter after each concrete risk;
(5) according to Engineering Documents, the user inputs each engineering parameter value in the risk assessment inventory, to determine the corresponding risk reliability of each engineering parameter;
(6) computation model in the risk assessment module according to the information that provides in the risk assessment inventory, extracts required calculating parameter as foundation from the risk storehouse, finishes the calculating of each the risk risk in the risk assessment inventory;
(7) generate evaluation result, export to the user.
Claims (5)
1. subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation system, it is characterized in that: this system comprises Subscriber Interface Module SIM, the newly-built module of project, risk identification information bank module, risk library module, risk assessment base module, matching algorithm module and risk assessment module;
Subscriber Interface Module SIM is used for realizing user interactions;
The newly-built module of project, be used for new project information, for risk identification is set up identifying object, set up successively the layer of structure of project to be evaluated according to construction project, single construction, unit project, in order in the risk identification information bank, carry out determining of risk identification information take unit project as object;
Risk identification information bank module based on the subway work characteristics, take risk identification as purpose, is set up the relevant disjunction structures storage to subway unit project and each crucial engineering method information;
The risk library module, define the relation of all subway work security risks and construction, define the risk conversion factor of each risk under the large engineering method of difference, define the risk conversion factor of each risk in the different construction stages, define the weight of each engineering parameter class, define the loss grade of each risk, define each prevention of risk and dispose suggestion;
The risk assessment base module is stored the engineering parameter relevant with the subway work security risk, defines the security risk in the associated risk storehouse of each engineering parameter, and the possible value of definition engineering parameter defines security risk reliability corresponding to each value;
The matching algorithm module realizes data retrieval and abstraction function between each database module, generates risk identification inventory and risk assessment inventory;
The risk assessment module, the algorithm that the definition risk assessment is calculated, thus obtain last security risk evaluations result.
2. method of work based on subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation claimed in claim 1 system is characterized in that may further comprise the steps:
(1) newly-built project to be evaluated is divided successively according to construction project, single construction, unit project, forms the project structure of tree hierarchy;
(2) take the unit project of new project as object, in the risk identification information bank, determine risk identification information, namely each unit project is set up the independent risk identification information of a cover;
(3) according to the risk identification information of each unit project, use matching algorithm in the risk storehouse, to extract relevant risk, generate the risk identification inventory take unit project as object, the risk identification inventory shows the security risk that the constituent parts engineering may occur;
(4) according to the risk identification inventory, use matching algorithm in the risk assessment knowledge base, to extract the engineering parameter that is associated with each risk, generate the risk assessment inventory, the risk assessment inventory namely is on the basis of risk identification inventory, fills in relevant engineering parameter after each concrete risk;
(5) according to Engineering Documents, each engineering parameter value of input in the risk assessment inventory is to determine the corresponding risk reliability of each engineering parameter;
(6) computation model in the risk assessment module according to the information that provides in the risk assessment inventory, extracts required calculating parameter as foundation from the risk storehouse, finishes the calculating of each the risk risk in the risk assessment inventory;
(7) generate evaluation result, export to the user.
3. the method for work of a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation according to claim 2 system is characterized in that: the generation method of described risk identification inventory is, according to the risk identification information bank, and the risk identification of identifying project information; Matching algorithm is retrieved all risk cases relevant with this identifying information according to project risk identification information in the risk storehouse; Take unit project as object, enumerate the risk case that all identify, generate the risk identification inventory for the risk evaluation.
4. the method for work of a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation according to claim 2 system, it is characterized in that: the generation method of described risk assessment inventory is, according to the risk identification inventory, matching algorithm is retrieved the engineering parameter relevant with concrete risk case according to the risk case in the inventory in the risk assessment knowledge base; Take unit project as dividing foundation, take concrete risk case as object, every retrieval once just generates the related of a concrete risk case and its engineering parameter; All risk cases can generate the risk assessment inventory for the risk evaluation after search complete.
5. the method for work of a kind of subway work security risk discrimination and evaluation according to claim 2 system, it is characterized in that: the computation model of described risk assessment is certain risk average risk degree
, wherein
Be the average degree that certain security risk event occurs, this average degree refers to the risk calculated in the situation of not considering the construction stage,
Be five engineering parameter classes, comprise hydrogeological class, job design class, constructing operation class, weather class, environmental classes, for the reliability of this risk,
Be the weight of all kinds of engineering parameters, Q
1Be engineering method risk contribution coefficient, indicate here dig, tunneling, lid digs and four kinds of large engineering methods of shield structure to the contribution of the risk of concrete risk;
The risk of different construction stages of certain risk
, wherein
Be the risk of certain risk in the different construction stages,
Be the risk conversion factor of certain risk in certain construction stage; Wherein, j is the real number of value [0,2];
For certain concrete risk case, C(E
i) several concrete engineering parameter, then C(E are arranged under the represented engineering parameter class
i) value can by
Calculate, in conjunction with above three formulas, the weight of the engineering parameter under each engineering parameter class is the same, and the weight between each engineering parameter class is different; Wherein, n is the integer greater than zero;
Can be calculated the risk of concrete risk according to above three formulas, the high low reaction of risk the size of risk possibility occurrence, loss grade has been determined to each risk in the risk storehouse, the risk of loss grade of determining in the risk result that the Rate of aggregative risk model calculates and the risk storehouse can obtain the risk class of each estimated risk.
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