CN102609774B - System and method for identifying and reasoning security risks of metro construction - Google Patents
System and method for identifying and reasoning security risks of metro construction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a system and a method for identifying and reasoning security risks of metro construction. The system comprises a user interface module, an engineering parameter module, a rule module, a reasoning work area module and a conclusion explaining module. The identifying and reasoning method comprises the following steps: firstly receiving construction site classification, construction method classification and security risk parameters, and storing the construction site classification, the construction method classification and the security risk parameters into a reasoning work area; classifying a rule base, matching risk causing factors and reasoning the rule; and finally determining the conclusion and explaining the risks. To overcome the disadvantages in the prior art, the invention provides the system and the method for identifying and reasoning the security risks of the metro construction, which can be exclusively used for the technical scheme for identifying and reasoning the security risks of the metro construction based on a rule based reasoning (RBR) mechanism and the risk identifying rule base.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to engineering risk identification field, particularly a kind of subway work security risk identification inference system and identification inference method thereof.
Background technology
Subway work safety risk management is the main knowledge that relies on technician at present, and China's subway Large scale construction in recent years has the safety manager of enough technical merits extremely to lack; And risk identification knowledge is solidificated in individual brains, is difficult to accumulation and shares; In addition, traditional Risk Identification Method (as expert's point system, empirical analysis method, statistical analysis method, fault tree analysis process etc.) workload is large, easily makes mistakes.
Aspect the external theory at subway work security risk identification and evaluation and method, done large quantity research, in these Research Literatures, often directly provide the risk case of having identified, carry out on this basis risk assessment, for how to identify risk case, risk case and cause the rare Literature Discussion of relation between dangerous factor.Aspect applied system research, foreign scholar once developed the digitized description system of the tunnel tunnel face based on PDA and wireless network transmission technology and the tunnel risk management system based on ArcGIS, and these software systems are mainly paid close attention to on-the-spot geologic risk, construction environment risk assessment.
China carries out more late in the research aspect subway engineering risk identification and assessment.At aspects such as metro station construction, the interval construction of shield structure, the interval construction of shallow buried covered excavation, subway work Environmental Risk, subway work security risk identification and evaluation application systems, all done a lot of work.But more emphasis subway engineering risk analysis and the research of assessment, risk identification is generally as one of them link; List the general granularity of risk source larger, not careful to the relationship analysis of risk factors and risk; Only adopt on a small quantity fault tree analysis method and WBS-RBS method to carry out identification and the quantitative test of risk factors.
At the theoretical side of subway work security risk identification reasoning, the paper that is entitled as subway engineering construction safety risk recognition rule that the project team of being led by patent applicant of the present invention in June, 2011 is delivered at civil engineering work and management journal, concept, obtaining with the structure problem of risk identification rule of risk identification rule to subway engineering construction safety risk recognition rule in paper are inquired into, but do not have the concrete technical scheme of probing into realize work.
Above-mentioned research can be found out: the existing more achievement in research of the identification of subway work security risk and assessment and application case, and be that the refinement of solution subway work risk, identification work and the concrete technical scheme the Study of the Realization that is applied to risk identification reasoning field there is not yet report.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to solve prior art deficiency, a kind of subway work security risk identification inference system and identification inference method thereof are provided, have been exclusively used in the technical scheme of the subway work security risk identification reasoning that realizes a kind of rule-based reasoning (RBR) mechanism and risk identification rule base.
A kind of subway work security risk identification inference system of the present invention includes Subscriber Interface Module SIM, engineering parameter module, rule module, reasoning Workplace module and conclusion explanation module.
Subscriber Interface Module SIM is used for realizing user interactions, comprises the function of two aspects; The first receives the engineering parameter information that a certain subway engineering correspondence work point is classified, engineering method classification is relevant with security risk, the engineering parameter values that information source is automatically identified in subway work drawing and the work point classification of manually being inputted by safety manager, engineering method classification and engineering parameter values.Described work point classification refers to subway station and Subway Tunnel, and described engineering method classification refers to that open cut, tunneling, lid dig and four kinds of subway work engineering methods of shield structure.Then information is carried out to standardization inspection, will be submitted to reasoning Workplace module by the engineering parameter information checking.Engineering parameter information is checked and can prevent input error, and engineering parameter information must meet numeral or particular term standard, if not, will not accept, and point out user to re-enter to meet the information of form.It two is by reasoning Workplace module acquired results feedback user, thus realize user check by security risk engineering parameter progressively reasoning to the function of whole inference steps of security risk conclusion.
In order to carry out the identification reasoning work of security risk, need to build security risk recognition rule storehouse, security risk recognition rule storehouse be inference machine carry out reasoning must rely on core, the structure in security risk recognition rule storehouse directly affects reasoning accuracy, high efficiency and the maintainability of whole risk automatic recognition system.Obtaining of security risk recognition rule is the comprehensive refinement to expertise and regulation and stipulation.The invention provides engineering parameter module, rule module and conclusion explanation module and form security risk recognition rule storehouse.
Engineering parameter module, is used for depositing subway engineering construction safety risk and identifies related engineering parameter, causes dangerous factor and the confidence level under different situations thereof.Described engineering parameter is mainly by reading the data such as subway engineering relevant design, job specifications, construction handbook, engineering drawing, technical scheme, paper document, to conclude summary, form with Metro Design, the directly related structural elements of constructing, surrounding enviroment, geological hydrology, how much, behavior of mechanics that construction technology is relevant, engineering parameter requires clear, it is clear to classify, convenient storage, be easy to expand.Described cause dangerous factor refer to potential various engineering grounds region, surrounding enviroment, construction technology and the Managed Solution having an accident and cause engineering risk occur immediate cause, as various arrangement and method for construction, operating technique, preparation of construction, constructing operation and work activities etc.
Rule module, for storing subway work security risk recognition rule, subway work security risk recognition rule is to describe the possibility that the various combination that causes dangerous factor causes risk to occur, its intension is a kind of formalized description to risk identification uncertain knowledge.
And corresponding one regular group of risk case, comprises at most an exclusive type rule in one regular group, comprises two combined rules (weight rule and least favorable rule).
Reasoning Workplace module, the first receives the subway work security risk engineering parameter information that Subscriber Interface Module SIM transmits, and the identification of the subway work security risk in calling rule module reasoning algorithm (the actual related algorithm that just comprised of Rule Expression in rule module, therefore reasoning algorithm is together with rule being), progressively derive subway work security risk and corresponding risk explains; It two is that whole inference steps and the risk finally inferring and respective risk are explained by Subscriber Interface Module SIM feedback user;
Conclusion explanation module, for storing possible risk conclusion and explanation after subway work security risk identification reasoning.Subway work security risk is carried out to Classification Management, each risk has been carried out to corresponding feature of risk description and control measure prompting.Risk conclusion and explanation mainly refer to feature and the risk control method of security risk recognition result, and its content comprises: conclusion coding, conclusion description, risk type, confidence level computing method, risk consequence, risk possibility occurrence, treatment measures suggestion etc.
The risk identification rule of the present invention's design adopts the production representation of expansion, has introduced regular grouping, rule type, has strengthened the association between rule.According to the sort feature of subway construction safety risk, heuristic knowledge is designed to meta-rule, explicitly control reasoning process, its core is uncertain reasoning, its committed step of subway work security risk identification inference method of described risk identification inference system is as follows:
(1) receive the classification of work point, engineering method classification and security risk engineering parameter and leave in reasoning workspace;
(2) classifying rules storehouse: according to work point classification and engineering method classification, to the meta-rule retrieval of classifying of the security risk rule base in rule module 30, leave in reasoning workspace meeting the rule that work point is classified and engineering method is classified;
(3) cause dangerous factor coupling: by engineering parameter FID, retrieve and cause accordingly dangerous factor entry, then according to engineering parameter values, match the dangerous factor that causes of work point correspondence;
(4) rule-based reasoning: by the retrieval calculating one by one of rule group.In rule, first choose exclusive type meta-rule on the same group, utilize CF Computing Meta rule computation rule prerequisite confidence level CF1, if meet CF1 >=λ, calculate this regular decision confidence, obtain conclusion, retrieve the rule in next regular group; If regular CF1 < λ, combined rule in choosing on the same group, carrying out regular prerequisite confidence level calculates, meet CF2 >=λ, calculate this regular decision confidence, obtain conclusion, retrieve the rule in next regular group, otherwise abandon this rule, choose next rule on the same group and calculate;
(5) conclusion is determined: if there are many combined rules that meet regular prerequisite, have conflict, call conflict resolution meta-rule and sort by decision confidence, the final conclusion using the conclusion of confidence level maximum as reasoning;
(6) risk is explained: the security risk conclusion that all reasonings are identified is mated with the conclusion explain information in conclusion explanation module, obtains corresponding conclusion explain information.
And the described dangerous factor that causes is mainly obtained by following four kinds of methods:
(1) engineering experience analytic approach
From construction handbook, start with, choose the chapters and sections directly related with risk identification and read, sum up main Types, description, the main reason of subway work security risk.
(2) risk definition method of semantic differential
For construction handbook and scientific and technical literature clearly, risk case definition clearly, by the engineering term in definition and keyword identification, carry out semantic analysis, can tentatively list and cause dangerous factor clue.It is clear that this analytical approach is adapted to risk definition, the risk case that the mechanism of action is clear and definite.
(3) standard clause analytic approach
Subway engineering construction safety risk is identified the standard relating to and is comprised: the multiclass such as prospecting, design, construction, monitoring, quality, risk management.Due to the firmly portion's of the building supervision of Metro Construction home country, during towards the establishment of the related specifications of subway engineering, directly or indirectly quote railway construction standard, exist part clause not exclusively to meet the requirement of subway construction adaptability, in application, also have " standard cover standard " phenomenon.Also ironworker's journey construction risk is not identified targeted specifically at present country or industry standard, but from the standard clause of having promulgated at present, by engineering experience, can extract again, sum up some to the valuable information of risk identification.In the clause of all kinds of standards such as design, construction, there is not the statement of explicit showing " engineering risk ", but we (for example: " necessary " can pass through Code words, " forbid ", " suitable ", " unsuitable " etc.) implication in infer the risk that may exist and cause dangerous factor.
(4) reliability analysis method
For suitable, set up mechanical analysis analytic model or have the risk case of resolving experimental formula, inventor, from reliability analysis theory, sets up its limit state function, from the independent variable of limit state function, starts with, and obtains and causes dangerous factor clue;
For the risk case that is not suitable for setting up analytic model, inventor utilizes method for numerical simulation to set up realistic model, and the parameter in its model also can be used as risk and cause the source of dangerous factor.
By above four kinds of methods, can obtain the dangerous factor clue of causing of various risk factors, same risk case is used that diverse ways obtains causes dangerous factor clue difference to some extent, this just needs inventor take risk case as object, and the dangerous factor clue that causes obtaining by distinct methods is concluded and arranged.Merge wherein similar factor, contradictory each other factor is further studied, the choice of science, finally obtains the dangerous set of factors of causing of one group of science for each risk case.
And the present invention adopts the match reasoning of the retrieval in groups algorithm based on meta-rule control, described meta-rule, carries out systematic searching and clears up the rule of conflict the rule in all security risk rule bases exactly, is specifically divided into 4 classes:
Classification meta-rule, strictly all rules has its applicable work point and engineering method, work point and the engineering method of its use for each rule group, have been stipulated, utilize classification meta-rule, can be according to work point and the engineering method information of user's input, in rule base, pick out the rule that meets corresponding work point and engineering method information, and other rules need not be retrieved;
Exclusive type meta-rule, for each risk case, developed one group of rule, each regular group comprises three rules, an i.e. exclusive type rule and two combined rules, in regular group that retrieves by classification meta-rule, first each rule group is carried out to exclusive type meta-rule, if result of calculation exceedes threshold value, do not carry out another two combined rules on the same group;
CF Computing Meta rule, effect one is the computing formula of setting CF,
, the 2nd, setting threshold;
Conflict resolution meta-rule, when in same group of rule group, multiple combined rules can be derived conclusion, exist multiple situation all can cause same risk conclusion, to select most probable to cause the rule of this risk conclusion by conflict resolution meta-rule, so that whole in this rule cause the part that dangerous factor explains as risk, feed back to user.
The present invention has the following advantages:
(1) traditional risk identification is all the Knowledge Capability that relies on technician individual at present, this knowledge of solidifying in human brain is difficult to accumulation and shares, and be subject to the impact of the factors such as individual health and working strength, cannot guarantee that these knowledge all normally play a role at every turn.The present invention obtains risk identification rule from standard and expertise, and carries out structured representation and storage, builds subway work security risk identification inference procedure, realizes the robotization of metro safety risk identification reasoning;
(2) inventor has developed four kinds of methods and from standard and expertise, obtains and cause dangerous factor clue, and will cause dangerous factor clue and be organized into rule, formation rule storehouse.Realized extraction and standardization to subway safety risk management experience, for the robotization of security risk identification reasoning, carried out important data and prepared.These four kinds of methods are: engineering experience analytic approach, risk definition method of semantic differential, standard clause analytic approach and reliability analysis method.
(3) the present invention sums up correlation theory sex knowledge and the expertise sex knowledge in subway engineering construction safety risk identification field, systematically induction-arrangement subway engineering construction safety risk and cause dangerous factor, the structure of the risk identification knowledge base based on confidence level has been proposed, for the risk identification rule with uncertain attribute, propose Rule, qualitative and quantitative analysis method and the knowledge representation method based on expansion production, build on this basis the security risk identification knowledge base based on confidence level.
(4) by having introduced the concept of regular grouping, rule type, heuristic knowledge is designed to meta-rule, explicit control reasoning process.The search work amount of in groups retrieving match reasoning algorithm compared with global search order matching algorithm can reduce 50%-80% of employing based on meta-rule control.
(5) inventor, based on security risk recognition rule storehouse, has proposed structurized engineering parameter storehouse, has realized the structuring to the necessary engineering parameter of security risk reasoning, has carried out important data prepare for the robotization of security risk identification reasoning.
(6) inventor has developed the identification of the security risk that is applicable to subway work and the concrete technology realization of reasoning, and this technology realizes and comprises the classification of reception work point, engineering method classification and security risk engineering parameter and leave in reasoning workspace; Classifying rules storehouse: according to the classification of work point and engineering method classification, security risk rule base is carried out to systematic searching, the rule that meets the classification of work point and engineering method classification is left in reasoning workspace; Cause dangerous factor coupling: by engineering parameter FID, retrieve and cause accordingly dangerous factor entry, then according to engineering parameter values, match the dangerous factor that causes of work point correspondence; Rule-based reasoning; Conclusion is determined; Risk is explained.
(7) user inputs engineering parameter information, can directly obtain identification and assessment result to subway construction safety risk, and can obtain the control measure suggestion to construction safety risk, be conducive to user and work out the arrangement and method for construction of science and carry out effective field management, realize the robotization of risk management and scientific.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the system construction drawing of a kind of subway work security risk identification inference system of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the operation phase process flow diagram of a kind of subway work security risk identification inference system of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the risk identification process flow diagram flow chart of the rule-based reasoning of a kind of subway work security risk identification inference method of the present invention.
Wherein, Subscriber Interface Module SIM 10, engineering parameter module 20, rule module 30, reasoning Workplace module 40, conclusion explanation module 50.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, invention is further detailed.
As shown in Figure 1, the subway work security risk identification inference system that the embodiment of the present invention provides comprises Subscriber Interface Module SIM 10, engineering parameter module 20, rule module 30, reasoning Workplace module 40 and conclusion explanation module 50, and each module can adopt computer software to realize according to technical solution of the present invention by those skilled in the art.
Subscriber Interface Module SIM 10, for realizing user interactions, comprises the function of two aspects; The first receives the engineering parameter information that a certain subway engineering correspondence work point is classified, engineering method classification is relevant with security risk, the engineering parameter values that information source is automatically identified in subway work drawing and the work point classification of manually being inputted by safety manager, engineering method classification and engineering parameter values.Described work point classification refers to subway station and Subway Tunnel, and described engineering method classification refers to that open cut, tunneling, lid dig and four kinds of subway work engineering methods of shield structure.Then information is carried out to standardization inspection, will be submitted to reasoning Workplace module 40 by the engineering parameter information checking.Engineering parameter information is checked and can prevent input error, and engineering parameter information must meet numeral or particular term standard, if not, will not accept, and point out user to re-enter to meet the information of form.It two is by reasoning Workplace module 40 acquired results feedback users, thus realize user check by security risk engineering parameter progressively reasoning to the function of whole inference steps of security risk conclusion.
In order to carry out the identification reasoning work of security risk, need to build security risk recognition rule storehouse, security risk recognition rule storehouse be inference machine carry out reasoning must rely on core, the structure in security risk recognition rule storehouse directly affects reasoning accuracy, high efficiency and the maintainability of whole risk automatic recognition system.
Obtaining of security risk recognition rule is the comprehensive refinement to expertise and regulation and stipulation.Inventor adopted four kinds of Rule modes be present in expert's brains and standard in subway work safe experience be organized into the rule of consolidation form.
First obtaining of risk identification rule be to obtain by following four kinds of methods the clue that causes dangerous factor.
(1) engineering experience analytic approach
From construction handbook, start with, choose the chapters and sections directly related with risk identification and read, sum up main Types, description, the main reason of subway work security risk.
Table 1 Metro Deep Excavation construction risk table
| sequence number | risk title | main cause |
| 1 | foundation ditch underflow soil (quicksand) | 1) at the bottom of foundation ditch, be the sandy soil stratum 2 such as the uniform powder of grain composition, fine sand) there is head difference inside and outside foundation ditch, cause flowing pressure to be more than or equal to native buoyant unit weight 3) enclosure wall stagnant water effect is bad or lost efficacy. |
| 2 | foundation pit side-wall water burst, gush sand | 1) outside foundation ditch, soil layer is the non-sticky stratum 2 of layer of sand, flour sand layer or other good water permeability) there is head difference inside and outside foundation ditch, cause seepage flow gradient to be greater than native critical gradient 3) enclosure wall stagnant water effect is bad or lost efficacy |
| 3 | dash forward and gush destruction in the end, hole | confined aquifer head pressure is greater than pit bottom soil layer soil pressure |
Can analyzing total from the risk generation main cause of table 1 is described bear risk and cause dangerous factor clue, for example: foundation pit side-wall water burst, gush the dangerous factor of causing of sand risk and at least comprise 1) soil layer 2 in excavation of foundation pit) the inside and outside head difference 3 of foundation ditch) water sealing structure constructs.
(2) risk definition method of semantic differential
For construction handbook and scientific and technical literature clearly, risk case definition clearly, by the engineering term in definition and keyword identification, carry out semantic analysis, can tentatively list and cause dangerous factor clue.It is clear that this analytical approach is adapted to risk definition, the risk case that the mechanism of action is clear and definite.
For example: stream soil (quicksand) is defined as follows:
After stream soil (quicksand) refers to that native discrete particles is saturated by underground water, due to the existence of head difference, when flowing pressure is more than or equal to native buoyant unit weight, soil particle is in suspended state, the shearing strength of soil equals zero, and soil particle flows with seepage flow, has produced stream soil (sand).
According to the definition of stream soil (quicksand), identify term/keyword, infer that possible to cause dangerous factor as shown in table 2:
Table 2 causes dangerous factor reasoning identification table
(3) standard clause analytic approach
Subway engineering construction safety risk is identified the standard relating to and is comprised: the multiclass such as prospecting, design, construction, monitoring, quality, risk management.Due to the firmly portion's of the building supervision of Metro Construction home country, during towards the establishment of the related specifications of subway engineering, directly or indirectly quote railway construction standard, exist part clause not exclusively to meet the requirement of subway construction adaptability, in application, also have " standard cover standard " phenomenon.Also ironworker's journey construction risk is not identified targeted specifically at present country or industry standard, but from the standard clause of having promulgated at present, by engineering experience, can extract again, sum up some to the valuable information of risk identification.Inventor takes as the leading factor with risk identification, subway engineering related specifications is carried out to combing, as be shown in Table 3:
Table 3 is identified relevant standard to subway engineering construction risk
Described iron mark refers to the railway systems standard that the Ministry of Railways promulgates, described in build the building trade standard that mark refers to that the Ministry of Construction promulgates, described association mark refers to the building trade standard that China Engineering Construction Standardization Association promulgates, described urban place name is provincial standard.
In the clause of all kinds of standards such as design, construction, there is not the statement of explicit showing " engineering risk ", but we (for example: " necessary " can pass through Code words, " forbid ", " suitable ", " unsuitable " etc.) implication in infer the risk that may exist and cause dangerous factor.For example: 10.l.9 bar " thickness of earth covering of the running tunnel of shield construction should not be less than tunnel outline diameter " in < < metro design code > > (GB 50157-2003), from this clause, can infer " thickness of earth covering of running tunnel is less than tunnel outline diameter " is one and causes dangerous factor, may cause ground settlement excessive or surrounding building is impacted.According to above-mentioned thinking, contrast standard clause is retrieved and reasoning, thereby identifies risk and cause dangerous factor clue, and part recognition result is as shown in table 4:
The partial risks of table 4 standard clause analytic approach identification and cause dangerous factor
(4) reliability analysis method
For suitable, set up mechanical analysis analytic model or have the risk case of resolving experimental formula, inventor, from reliability analysis theory, sets up its limit state function, from the independent variable of limit state function, starts with, and obtains and causes dangerous factor clue.
For the risk case that is not suitable for setting up analytic model, inventor utilizes method for numerical simulation to set up realistic model, and the parameter in its model also can be used as risk and cause the source of dangerous factor.For example: when simulation tunnel excavation affects periphery underground utilities, consider buried depth, the trend of pipeline in numerical simulation model, the Material Physics mechanics parameter of tunnel, the soil body, pipeline etc., form and cause dangerous set of factors after these parametric synthesis classification.
By above four kinds of methods, can obtain the dangerous factor clue of causing of various risk factors, same risk case is used that diverse ways obtains causes dangerous factor clue difference to some extent, this just needs inventor take risk case as object, and the dangerous factor clue that causes obtaining by distinct methods is concluded and arranged.Merge wherein similar factor, contradictory each other factor is further studied to the choice of science.Finally for each risk case, obtain the dangerous set of factors of causing of one group of science.
The present invention adopts above method to obtain altogether 89 kinds of subway work risk cases, thereby also obtained 89 groups, causes dangerous set of factors.
The embodiment of the present invention provides engineering parameter module 20, rule module 30 and conclusion explanation module 50 to form security risk recognition rule storehouse.
Engineering parameter module 20, is used for depositing subway engineering construction safety risk and identifies related engineering parameter, causes dangerous factor and the confidence level under different situations thereof.Described engineering parameter is mainly by reading the data such as subway engineering relevant design, job specifications, construction handbook, engineering drawing, technical scheme, paper document, to conclude summary, form with Metro Design, the directly related structural elements of constructing, surrounding enviroment, geological hydrology, how much, behavior of mechanics that construction technology is relevant, engineering parameter requires clear, it is clear to classify, convenient storage, be easy to expand.Described cause dangerous factor refer to potential various engineering grounds region, surrounding enviroment, construction technology and the Managed Solution having an accident and cause engineering risk occur immediate cause, as various arrangement and method for construction, operating technique, preparation of construction, constructing operation and work activities etc.Take stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch as example, at the bottom of foundation ditch, stratum soil property belongs to engineering parameter, gravelly sand, medium coarse sand and a coarse sand etc. and belongs to respective value under this engineering parameter, and at the bottom of foundation ditch, stratum soil property is that gravelly sand belongs to one and causes dangerous factor.
Subway engineering construction safety risk agent object is station and interval, from domain knowledge angle, engineering parameter can be divided into station class and interval class, take into account simultaneously and consider that station and interval risk identification are had to engineering geology, hydrogeology, the surrounding building of material impact, the engineering parameter of pipeline attribute, this type of engineering parameter is as general class engineering parameter.
For station class, the existing engineering parameter that comprises station, interval base attribute of interval class engineering parameter, as: station standard paragraphs width, running tunnel length, standard cross-section of tunnel width etc., also there is the engineering parameter directly related with construction, as the first Zhi Houdu relevant with running tunnel tunneling engineering method, grid steel frame spacing etc.Inventor analyzes data such as subway engineering relevant design, job specifications, construction handbook, engineering drawing, technical scheme, paper documents, and the security risk engineering parameter summing up mainly contains 293 kinds, and part engineering parameter information is as shown in table 5:
Table 5 engineering parameter for example
| Engineering parameter coding | Engineering parameter title | The classification of work point | Engineering method classification |
| FID.001 | Packet length outside station | Station | Open cut, lid dig |
| FID.002 | Station standard paragraphs width | Station | Open cut, lid dig |
| FID.003 | The station standard paragraphs degree of depth | Station | Open cut, lid dig |
| FID.004 | Station end well number | Station | Open cut, lid dig |
| FID.005 | Station end well width | Station | Open cut, lid dig |
| FID.006 | The station end well degree of depth | Station | Open cut, lid dig |
| FID.507 | Tunnel apex distance water surface mean distance | Interval | Open cut, tunneling, shield structure |
| FID.508 | Standard cross-section of tunnel width | Interval | Open cut, tunneling, shield structure |
| FID.020 | Pile footpath | General | Open cut, tunneling, lid dig |
| FID.021 | Pile heart distance | General | Open cut, tunneling, lid dig |
| FID.022 | Pile long [minimum] | General | Open cut, tunneling, lid dig |
| FID.023 | Pile long [maximum] | General | Open cut, tunneling, lid dig |
| FID.024 | Pile long [on average] | General | Open cut, tunneling, lid dig |
| FID.025 | Cast-in-situ bored pile enters rock state | General | Open cut, tunneling, lid dig |
It is as shown in table 6 that part causes dangerous factor:
Table 6 causes dangerous factor for example
| Engineering parameter coding | Engineering parameter title | Symbol | Value | Cause dangerous factor confidence level CF(ei) |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Gravelly sand | 0.4 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Coarse sand | 0.5 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Medium coarse sand | 0.6 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Medium sand | 0.65 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Fine sand | 0.7 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Powder fine sand | 0.8 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Flour sand | 0.85 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Silt | 0.85 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Clay | 0.1 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Silty clay | 0.2 |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Other | 0.0 |
The described confidence level that causes dangerous factor refers to when Engineering technical parameters is got certain value, and people can really become a degree of faith that causes dangerous factor that causes risk to it.More be difficult for becoming the value that causes dangerous factor, it is less that it causes dangerous factor confidence level.
Rule module 30, for storing subway work security risk recognition rule, subway work security risk recognition rule is to describe the possibility that the various combination that causes dangerous factor causes risk to occur, its intension is a kind of formalized description to risk identification uncertain knowledge.Generally can be expressed as with natural language: if (existed ... condition) (may produce so ... risk), for example: if (having silt seam outside subway foundation pit within the scope of excavation) (foundation pit side-wall risk of leakage may occur) so.
The present invention introduces the production rule representation of expansion, its citation form is as IF e THEN h (CF (h, e), λ), wherein: e is the combination that causes dangerous factor, employing respectively causes dangerous factor conjunction form and is expressed as: e1 (ω 1) ∧ e2 (ω 2) ∧ ... (n), (ω is i) i weight that causes dangerous factor to ω to ∧ en; H is that conclusion is risk case; CF (h, e) is regular confidence level; λ is recognition rule threshold value, only causes dangerous factor combination confidence level CF (e) and is greater than λ, and this rule is just called; Cause the confidence level of dangerous factor combination by formula
calculate, risk possibility occurrence is by formula
calculate.The expansion production representation of risk identification rule is as shown in table 7 for example:
Table 7 security risk recognition rule expansion production representation for example
| Rule numbers | Rule Expression | Rule confidence level CF (h, e) | Threshold value (λ) |
| R1-1 | FID.100∨ FID.025∨ FID.101 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| R1-2 | FID.100∧FID.025∧FID.104∧FID.101∧FID.026∧FID.102 | 1 | 0.8 |
| R1-3 | FID.100(0.3)∧FID.025(0.075)∧FID.104(0.25)∧FID.101(0.15)∧FID.026(0.15)∧FID.102(0.075) | 0.8 | 0.5 |
The confidence level of described rule refers to various and causes under the combination of dangerous factor, and can infer correct conclusion, people can much degree believe this rule.
Threshold value is to determine that risk case occurs or the key parameter not occurring, and we,, when exploitation, first formulate an initial threshold, then system are taken in concrete engineering and are tried out.In process on probation, according to real data, constantly input calculating, according to engineering experience, judge the deviation of result of calculation and actual conditions, progressively adjust threshold value, obtain so relatively reasonable threshold value up till now.
Now illustrate the mode that gets of threshold value, Threshold example
Investigate risk case foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil, take weight type rule of combination R1-3 as example:
The first step, first first threshold value of establishing weight type rule of combination R1-3 are 0.8;
Second step, according to construction drawing and on-site actual situations, obtain engineering parameter as described in Table 10;
The 3rd step, calculating weight type rule of combination, result of calculation is 0.583, is less than threshold value 0.8;
The 4th step, according to the comparison of regular result of calculation and threshold value, should judge that this risk case generation confidence level is too small, without early warning, but field engineer is according to the engineering experience of oneself, require now should strengthen paying close attention to, take measures to monitor the inside and outside head difference of foundation ditch, strengthen on-the-spot tour, prepare relief materials in order to calling at any time.According to field engineer's instruction, can judge, now the risk of foundation ditch underflow sand drift soil still has larger possibility to occur, and therefore, the threshold value of originally just establishing is too high, needs to adjust;
The 5th step, adjustment threshold value are 0.5, are less than 0.583 result of calculation;
The 6th step, continuation are adjusted threshold value according to engineering reality and slip-stick artist's disposal at the scene, until meet experienced slip-stick artist's normal judgement;
The 7th step, determine last threshold value.
Rule confidence level is only to rely on the deviation of threshold decision to arrange in order to reduce.When calculating a certain rule, first according to regular algorithm, calculate, as exceed threshold value, think that this risk case (least favorable rule and weight type rule) may occur (exclusive type rule) maybe can not occur.But when output risk case probability of happening, result of calculation is multiplied by regular confidence level again, be only the risk case probability of happening of last output.In other words probability of happening is adjusted to little direction, to reduce the excessive and situation about not conforming to the actual conditions of output probability.Concrete computation process can be seen in last example.
Therefore, the regular confidence level of our exclusive type rule is set to 0.1, represents that exactly the judgement that can not occur risk case is very careful.Regular confidence level to least favorable rule is set to 1.0, represents exactly risk case to occur to represent to pay much attention to and pay close attention to.Regular confidence level to weight type rule is set to 0.8, represents a kind of attitude of compromise.
About regular formulation, first we first write a weight rule for a risk case, then write least favorable rule according to weight rule, then write exclusive rule according to engineering experience, if exclusive rule exists.Therefore, corresponding one regular group of risk case, comprises at most an exclusive type rule in one regular group, comprises two combined rules (weight rule and least favorable rule).
As, risk case causes dangerous set of factors with it:
Risk case: foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil
Cause dangerous set of factors: bottom soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch; Cast-in-situ bored pile enters rock situation; The inside and outside head difference of foundation ditch; At the bottom of foundation ditch, weak bottom is reinforced; The cast-in-situ bored pile ratio that buries; Foundation ditch substratum thickness
Weight type rule: FID.100 (0.3) ∧ FID.025 (0.075) ∧ FID.104 (0.25) ∧ FID.101 (0.15) ∧ FID.026 (0.15) ∧ FID.102 (0.075)
This formula representative: at the bottom of foundation ditch substratum thickness (0.3) ∧ cast-in-situ bored pile enters inside and outside head difference (0.25) the ∧ foundation ditch of rock situation (0.075) ∧ foundation ditch, weak bottom reinforcing (0.15) ∧ cast-in-situ bored pile buries than (0.15) ∧ foundation ditch substratum thickness (0.075)
In bracket, be respectively to cause dangerous factor weight.
Least favorable rule: FID.100 ∧ FID.025 ∧ FID.104 ∧ FID.101 ∧ FID.026 ∧ FID.102
This formula representative: at the bottom of foundation ditch substratum thickness ∧ cast-in-situ bored pile enters the inside and outside head difference ∧ foundation ditch of rock situation ∧ foundation ditch, weak bottom reinforcing ∧ cast-in-situ bored pile buries than ∧ foundation ditch substratum thickness
On weight type rule-based approach, remove weight exactly.
Exclusive type rule: FID.100 ∨ FID.025 ∨ FID.101
This rule representative: foundation ditch subsoil matter is that at the bottom of rock stratum or cast-in-situ bored pile enter rock or foundation ditch, weak bottom is reinforced
As long as this rule exceedes threshold value, just representative can be calculated another two combined rules, and the possibility that this risk case occurs is very little.
Exclusive type rule is to obtain according to engineering experience.
Rule module 30 is cores of whole risk identification database, it is combined with conclusion explanation module 50, the basic structure of expansion production IF e THEN h (CF (h, e), λ) is described, in rule module 30 designs, according to subway engineering construction safety risk, identify the feature of knowledge, increase the classification of work point, engineering method classification, increased the concept of regular group, strengthened the relevance between rule, reduce inference machine search volume, improved Reasoning Efficiency.Part Rule Information is as shown in table 8:
Table 8 Rule Information for example
| Rule numbers | Rule Expression | Rule confidence level CF (h, e) | Threshold value (λ) | Conclusion numbering |
| R1-1 | FID.100∨ FID.025∨ FID.101 | 0.1 | 0.8 | C.001 |
| R1-2 | FID.100∧FID.025∧FID.104∧FID.101∧FID.026∧FID.102 | 1 | 0.8 | C.001 |
| R1-3 | FID.100(0.3)∧FID.025(0.075)∧FID.104(0.25)∧FID.101(0.15)∧FID.026(0.15)∧FID.102(0.075) | 0.8 | 0.5 | C.001 |
| R2-4 | FID.100∨ FID.035∨ FID.101 | 0.1 | 0.8 | C.002 |
| R2-5 | FID.100∧FID.035∧FID.104∧FID.101∧FID.036∧FID.102 | 1 | 0.8 | C.02 |
| R2-6 | FID.100(0.3)∧FID.035(0.075)∧FID.104(0.25)∧FID.101(0.15)∧FID.036(0.15)∧FID.102(0.075) | 0.8 | 0.5 | C.002 |
The present invention adopts the match reasoning of the retrieval in groups algorithm based on meta-rule control.The risk identification rule of the present invention's design adopts the production representation of expansion, has introduced regular grouping, rule type, has strengthened the association between rule.According to the sort feature of subway construction safety risk, heuristic knowledge is designed to meta-rule, explicitly control reasoning process, its core is uncertain reasoning, as shown in Figure 3, its committed step is as follows for concrete identification inference method process flow diagram:
(1) receive the classification of work point, engineering method classification and security risk engineering parameter and leave in reasoning workspace;
(2) classifying rules storehouse: according to work point classification and engineering method classification, to the meta-rule retrieval of classifying of the security risk rule base in rule module 30, leave in reasoning workspace meeting the rule that work point is classified and engineering method is classified;
(3) cause dangerous factor coupling: by engineering parameter FID, retrieve and cause accordingly dangerous factor entry, then according to engineering parameter values, match the dangerous factor that causes of work point correspondence;
(4) rule-based reasoning: by the retrieval calculating one by one of rule group.In rule, first choose exclusive type meta-rule on the same group, utilize CF Computing Meta rule computation rule prerequisite confidence level CF1, if meet CF1 >=λ, calculate this regular decision confidence, obtain conclusion, retrieve the rule in next regular group; If regular CF1 < λ, combined rule in choosing on the same group, carrying out regular prerequisite confidence level calculates, meet CF2 >=λ, calculate this regular decision confidence, obtain conclusion, retrieve the rule in next regular group, otherwise abandon this rule, choose next rule on the same group and calculate;
(5) conclusion is determined: if there are many combined rules that meet regular prerequisite, have conflict, call conflict resolution meta-rule and sort by decision confidence, the final conclusion using the conclusion of confidence level maximum as reasoning;
(6) risk is explained: the security risk conclusion that all reasonings are identified is mated with the conclusion explain information in conclusion explanation module 60, obtains corresponding conclusion explain information.
Described meta-rule refers to " rule of rule ", and it can be realized to the rule in security risk rule base is carried out systematic searching and cleared up conflict.Specifically be divided into 4 classes:
(1) classification meta-rule.Strictly all rules has its applicable work point and engineering method.Inventor has stipulated work point and the engineering method of its use to each rule group, utilize classification meta-rule, can, according to work point and the engineering method information of user's input, in rule base, pick out the rule that meets corresponding work point and engineering method information, and other rules need not be retrieved, improved recall precision;
(2) exclusive type meta-rule.Inventor has developed one group of rule to each risk case, and each regular group comprises three rules, i.e. an exclusive type rule and two combined rules.In regular group that retrieves by classification meta-rule, first each rule group is carried out to exclusive type meta-rule, if result of calculation exceedes threshold value, do not carry out another two combined rules on the same group, improved recall precision;
(3) CF Computing Meta rule.CF Computing Meta rule.Effect one is the computing formula of setting CF,
, the 2nd, setting threshold;
(4) conflict resolution meta-rule.When in same group of rule group, multiple combined rules can be derived conclusion, exist multiple situation all can cause same risk conclusion, to select most probable to cause the rule of this risk conclusion by conflict resolution meta-rule, so that whole in this rule cause the part that dangerous factor explains as risk, feed back to user.
By all kinds of Different Rule distribution situations in rule base, this reasoning algorithm can reduce the search work amount of 50%-80% compared with global search order matching algorithm.
Conclusion explanation module 50, for storing possible risk conclusion and explanation after subway work security risk identification reasoning.Subway work security risk is carried out to Classification Management, each risk has been carried out to corresponding feature of risk description and control measure prompting.Risk conclusion and explanation mainly refer to feature and the risk control method of security risk recognition result, and conclusion is described title, the Basic Mechanism of explanation risk; The risk type of identification can be divided into: technical risk, environmental risk, other risks; Effect of risk may cause casualties, structural failure, environmental disruption etc.; Risk possibility occurrence span: 0.0-1.0; The engineering measure that treatment measures suggestion can need be strengthened for the type specification of risk, facilitates user to work out emergency preplan, as described in Table 9:
Table 9 conclusion is explained for example
| Conclusion coding | Conclusion is described | Risk type | Confidence level computing method | Risk consequence | Possibility occurrence | Treatment measures suggestion |
| C.001 | Foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil | Operating technique risk | CF （h）= CF （h ，e）×CF ( e) | Piping quicksand | 0.45 | 1. fender post (wall) enter rock 2. at the bottom of foundation ditch reinforcing soft formation 3. reduce the inside and outside head difference of foundation ditch |
| C.005 | Base bottom heave | Operating technique risk | CF （h）= CF （h ，e）×CF ( e) | Land subsidence, building enclosure unstability | 0.65 | 1. 2. foundation ditch bottom stratum consolidation accelerates cushion construction and construction of bottom plates |
Inventor has summed up altogether 89 subway work security risk conclusions and has explained, treatment measures are advised according to regular related specifications and expertise, through meticulously integrating and obtain, are manually to be completed by technician.
Certain the station pit underflow soil quicksand risk identifying take reasoning is example, and the security risk identification reasoning flow process of the embodiment of the present invention is:
(1) obtain engineering parameter, wherein at the bottom of foundation ditch, stratum soil property is silt, and cast-in-situ bored pile does not enter rock, and the inside and outside head difference of foundation ditch has 4.2 meters, and at the bottom of foundation ditch, soft stratum is reinforced, and cast-in-situ bored pile buries than being 0.73, and foundation bed thickness is 181mm;
(2) according to work point classification station and engineering method classification open cut, the security risk rule base in rule module 30 is carried out to systematic searching, by meet rule that work point classification and engineering method classify totally 25 leave in reasoning workspace;
(3) the dangerous factor that causes in engineering parameter and engineering parameter module 20 is matched, structure is applicable to the dangerous factor table that causes of this engineering, as shown in table 10:
Table 10 metro station risk identification rule prerequisite table (part record)
| Engineering parameter coding | Engineering parameter title | Symbol | Value | Cause dangerous factor confidence level CF (ei) |
| FID.100 | Stratum soil property at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Silt | 0.6 |
| FID.025 | Cast-in-situ bored pile enters rock state | = | Do not enter rock | 0.7 |
| FID.104 | The inside and outside head difference of foundation ditch | > | 4m | 0.8 |
| FID.101 | Reinforcing soft formation at the bottom of foundation ditch | = | Reinforce | 0.2 |
| FID.026 | The cast-in-situ bored pile ratio that buries | > | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| FID.102 | Foundation bed thickness | ＜ | 200mm | 0.8 |
(4) by the retrieval calculating one by one of rule group.Regular group that enters is carried out the reasoning of foundation ditch underflow soil quicksand risk, as shown in table 11:
Table 11 metro station risk identification rule list (part record)
Step is as follows:
1) first search exclusive type rule R1-1 in this rule group, rule computing formula is FID.100 ∨ FID.025 ∨ FID.101, bring FID.100=0.6, FID.025=0.7 and FID.101=0.1 into formula, calculate 0.7, be less than threshold value (λ=0.9), therefore transfer judgement with the combined rule under rule group;
2) in this rule group, the computing formula of first combined regular R1-2 is FID.100 ∧ FID.025 ∧ FID.104 ∧ FID.101 ∧ FID.026 ∧ FID.102, bring FID.100=0.6, FID.025=0.7, FID.104=0.8, FID.101=0.1, FID.026=0.4 and FID.102=0.8 into formula, calculate 0.1, be less than threshold value (λ=0.8), therefore, transfer to judge the combined rule of Article 2;
3) get regular R1-3, by formula F ID.100 (0.3) ∧ FID.025 (0.075) ∧ FID.104 (0.25) ∧ FID.101 (0.15) ∧ FID.026 (0.15) ∧ FID.102 (0.075), bring FID.100=0.6, FID.025=0.7, FID.104=0.8, FID.101=0.1, FID.026=0.4 and FID.102=0.8 into formula, CF (e)=0.6*0.3+0.7*0.075+0.8*0.25+0.2*0.15+0.4*0.15+0.8*0.075=0 .583, CF (e) is greater than rule threshold (λ=0.5), and therefore R1-3 rule is available.Regular confidence level and regular prerequisite combination confidence level is multiplied each other and obtains decision confidence: CF (h)=CF (h, e) × CF (e)=0.8*0.583=0.466.Show that the possibility that foundation ditch underflow soil quicksand risk occurs is 0.466.
(5), by step 4, show that foundation ditch underflow soil quicksand risk may occur, retrieves corresponding risk and explains as shown in table 12:
The conclusion that table 12 draws is explained
| Conclusion coding | Conclusion is described | Risk type | Confidence level computing method | Risk consequence | Possibility occurrence | Treatment measures suggestion |
| C.001 | Foundation ditch underflow sand flow soil | Operating technique risk | CF （h）= CF （h ，e）×CF ( e) | Piping quicksand | 0.466 | 1. fender post (wall) enter rock 2. at the bottom of foundation ditch reinforcing soft formation 3. reduce the inside and outside head difference of foundation ditch |
Claims (2)
1. a subway work security risk identification inference method, includes Subscriber Interface Module SIM, engineering parameter module, rule module, reasoning Workplace module and conclusion explanation module, wherein:
Subscriber Interface Module SIM is used for realizing user interactions;
Engineering parameter module, is used for depositing subway engineering construction safety risk and identifies related engineering parameter, causes dangerous factor and the confidence level under different situations thereof;
Rule module, for storing subway work security risk recognition rule;
Reasoning Workplace module, the first receives the subway work security risk engineering parameter information that Subscriber Interface Module SIM transmits, and the identification of the subway work security risk in calling rule module reasoning algorithm, progressively derive subway work security risk and corresponding risk explanation; It two is that whole inference steps and the risk finally inferring and respective risk are explained by Subscriber Interface Module SIM feedback user;
Conclusion explanation module, for storing possible risk conclusion and explanation after subway work security risk identification reasoning, carries out Classification Management by subway work security risk, each risk has been carried out to corresponding feature of risk is described and control measure are pointed out;
It is characterized in that, the identification reasoning process of described subway work security risk identification inference method is:
(1) receive the classification of work point, engineering method classification and security risk engineering parameter and leave in reasoning workspace;
(2) classifying rules storehouse: according to the classification of work point and engineering method classification, the security risk rule base in rule module is carried out to systematic searching, the rule that meets the classification of work point and engineering method classification is left in reasoning workspace;
(3) cause dangerous factor coupling: by engineering parameter FID, retrieve and cause accordingly dangerous factor entry, then according to engineering parameter values, match the dangerous factor that causes of work point correspondence;
(4) rule-based reasoning: developed one group of rule for each risk case in described rule module, be called regular group, rule group comprises three rules, an i.e. exclusive type rule and two combined rules, described combined rule is weight rule and least favorable rule, during rule-based reasoning, by rule group, retrieve and calculate one by one, on the same group in rule, first choose exclusive type rule, computation rule prerequisite confidence level CF1, if meet CF1 >=λ, calculates this regular decision confidence, output conclusion, retrieves the rule in next regular group; If regular CF1 < λ, the combined rule in choosing on the same group, carries out regular prerequisite confidence level and calculates, meet CF2 >=λ, calculate this regular decision confidence, output conclusion, otherwise abandon this rule, choose next rule on the same group and calculate;
(5) conclusion is determined: if there are many combined rules that meet regular prerequisite, have conflict, call conflict resolution meta-rule and sort by decision confidence, the final conclusion using the conclusion of confidence level maximum as reasoning;
(6) risk is explained: the security risk conclusion that all reasonings are identified is mated with the conclusion explain information in conclusion explanation module, obtains corresponding conclusion explain information.
2. subway work security risk identification inference method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the risk identification process of rule-based reasoning adopts the match reasoning of the retrieval in groups algorithm based on meta-rule control, described meta-rule, exactly the rule in all security risk rule bases carried out systematic searching and cleared up the rule of conflict, being specifically divided into 4 classes:
Classification meta-rule, strictly all rules has its applicable work point and engineering method, work point and the engineering method of its use for each rule group, have been stipulated, utilize classification meta-rule, can be according to work point and the engineering method information of user's input, in rule base, pick out the rule that meets corresponding work point and engineering method information, and other rules need not be retrieved;
Exclusive type meta-rule, for each risk case, developed one group of rule, each regular group comprises three rules, an i.e. exclusive type rule and two combined rules, in regular group that retrieves by classification meta-rule, first each rule group is carried out to exclusive type meta-rule, if result of calculation exceedes threshold value, do not carry out another two combined rules on the same group;
CF Computing Meta rule, effect one is the computing formula of setting CF,
, the 2nd, setting threshold;
Conflict resolution meta-rule, when in same group of rule group, multiple combined rules can be derived conclusion, exist multiple situation all can cause same risk conclusion, to select most probable to cause the rule of this risk conclusion by conflict resolution meta-rule, so that whole in this rule cause the part that dangerous factor explains as risk, feed back to user.
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