JP2010256328A - 発電所計測器性能監視予測方法 - Google Patents
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Abstract
【解決手段】計測器信号を行列表示し、正規化し、訓練用、最適化用及びテスト用に分離し、主成分を抽出し、最適化用データを用いてSVRモデルの最適定数を反応分析表面法により求め、最適定数を用いて訓練モデルを生成し、与えられた正規化出力を元の範囲に逆正規化して変数の予測値を求める逆正規化を行い、既存のカーネル回帰法に比べて予測値計算の正確度を向上させる。
【選択図】図2
Description
このような従来のカーネル回帰法は、非線形状態のモデルと信号雑音に強い長所を有している。
主成分分析(PCA)は、線形変換による多数の入力変数の少数の変数への圧縮に有効な方法である。このとき、圧縮された変数を主成分(Principal Component)と呼ぶ。PCAは変数間相関関係を用いて元の次元のデータを二乗和(Sum of Squares)が最大化する低次元の超平面に放射する。
以下では、主成分を抽出する過程を説明する。
m次元の入力変数をx1、x2、...、xmとし、これらの線形結合で生成される新しい変数をθ1、θ2、...、θmとすれば、これらの関係は次の数11及び数12のように表現できる。
イ.各データセットZtr、Zop、Ztsから各変数の平均値を引き、これをAマトリックスとする。本発明の実施例では、Ztrを例示して説明し、これを数式で表すと次の数15のようになる。
m次元の入力変数x1、x2、... 、xmをp次元の主成分θ1、θ2、...、θpで圧縮するのは、次の数25のように表すことができる。
ロ.v1、v2、v3に対する探索範囲を各々決める。適切な探索範囲は事前経験や小規模の予備実験により把握できる。本発明の実施例においては、各々v1は0.56486−1.63514、v2は0.010534−0.039966、v3は2.1076−7.9933とする。
log(MSE)=−8.3492,−0.2131x1,+0.7716x2,−0.0952x3,+0.2010x1 2,−0.0753x2 2+0.0799x3 2
ル.最適条件(x* 1、x* 2、x* 3)を次の数39を用いて元の単位に換算する。
次の表5は、従来のカーネル回帰法と本発明の一実施例にかかる発電所計測器監視方法による計測器予測値の正確度を比較した表である。
1.原子炉出力(%)
2.加圧器水位(%)
3.蒸気発生器蒸気流量(Mkg/hr)
4.蒸気発生器狭域水位データ(%)
5.蒸気発生器圧力データ(Kg/cm2)
6.蒸気発生器広域水位データ(%)
7.蒸気発生器主給水流量データ(Mkg/hr)
8.タービン出力データ(MWe)
9.原子炉冷却材充電流量データ(m3/hr)
10.残熱除去流量データ(m3/hr)
11.原子炉上部冷却材温度データ(℃)
Claims (19)
- 全体データを行列の形に表示する行列表示ステップ;
前記全体データをデータセットとして正規化する正規化ステップ;
前記正規化されたデータセットを訓練用、最適化用及びテスト用に分離する分離ステップ;
正規化された各データセットの主成分を抽出する主成分抽出ステップ;
反応表面分析法を用いて最適化用データの予測値誤差を最適化するSVRモデルの最適定数を求める最適定数算出ステップ;
最適定数を用いてSVRモデルを生成する訓練モデル生成ステップ;
正規化されたテストデータを入力としてカーネル関数を求めSVRモデルの出力値を予測する訓練モデル出力予測ステップ;及び
与えられた正規化出力を元の範囲に逆正規化して変数の予測値を求める逆正規化ステップを含むことを特徴とする発電所計測器性能監視予測方法。 - 前記主成分抽出ステップでは、主成分の分散(すなわち、共分散マトリックスのEigenvalue)を大きさ順に並べ、百分率分散値が最も大きい主成分から、その累積和が99.5%以上になるまでのZtr、Zop、Ztsに対する主成分(Ptr、Pop、Pts)を選択することで正規化された各データセットZtr、Zop、Ztsの主成分を抽出することを特徴とする請求項1に記載の発電所計測器性能監視予測方法。
- 百分率分散(%σp)が最も大きいものから累積計算して、所望の百分率分散(例えば99.98%)までの主成分p個を選択することを特徴とする請求項10に記載の発電所計測器性能監視予測方法。
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KR1020090035254A KR101360790B1 (ko) | 2009-04-22 | 2009-04-22 | 발전소 계측기 성능 감시 예측 방법 |
KR10-2009-0035254 | 2009-04-22 |
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JP2010256328A true JP2010256328A (ja) | 2010-11-11 |
JP5431178B2 JP5431178B2 (ja) | 2014-03-05 |
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US (1) | US8781979B2 (ja) |
JP (1) | JP5431178B2 (ja) |
KR (1) | KR101360790B1 (ja) |
CN (1) | CN101872181A (ja) |
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US8781979B2 (en) | 2014-07-15 |
CN101872181A (zh) | 2010-10-27 |
KR20100116502A (ko) | 2010-11-01 |
JP5431178B2 (ja) | 2014-03-05 |
US20100274745A1 (en) | 2010-10-28 |
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