EP3415860A1 - Verfahren zur vorhersage der flugbahn eines feindlichen luftfahrzeugs, insbesondere im rahmen einer luftverteidigung - Google Patents

Verfahren zur vorhersage der flugbahn eines feindlichen luftfahrzeugs, insbesondere im rahmen einer luftverteidigung Download PDF

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Publication number
EP3415860A1
EP3415860A1 EP18175386.4A EP18175386A EP3415860A1 EP 3415860 A1 EP3415860 A1 EP 3415860A1 EP 18175386 A EP18175386 A EP 18175386A EP 3415860 A1 EP3415860 A1 EP 3415860A1
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Prior art keywords
aircraft
point
trajectory
probability
impact
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EP18175386.4A
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English (en)
French (fr)
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EP3415860B1 (de
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Pierre STOLZ
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Thales SA
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Thales SA
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    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F41—WEAPONS
    • F41G—WEAPON SIGHTS; AIMING
    • F41G7/00—Direction control systems for self-propelled missiles
    • F41G7/20—Direction control systems for self-propelled missiles based on continuous observation of target position
    • F41G7/22—Homing guidance systems
    • F41G7/2206—Homing guidance systems using a remote control station
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F41—WEAPONS
    • F41G—WEAPON SIGHTS; AIMING
    • F41G7/00—Direction control systems for self-propelled missiles
    • F41G7/20—Direction control systems for self-propelled missiles based on continuous observation of target position
    • F41G7/22—Homing guidance systems
    • F41G7/224—Deceiving or protecting means
    • F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F41—WEAPONS
    • F41H—ARMOUR; ARMOURED TURRETS; ARMOURED OR ARMED VEHICLES; MEANS OF ATTACK OR DEFENCE, e.g. CAMOUFLAGE, IN GENERAL
    • F41H11/00—Defence installations; Defence devices
    • F41H11/02—Anti-aircraft or anti-guided missile or anti-torpedo defence installations or systems

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to a method for predicting the trajectory of a hostile aircraft. It concerns in particular the naval air defense by the prediction of the objective of a hostile aircraft attacking a ship among several possible, the aircraft may be for example a missile. More generally, the invention applies to all anti-aircraft defenses where it is necessary to provide the attacked target among several.
  • a set of ships that may be attacked by hostile aircraft is, for example, a frigate, a major naval vessel and several important naval vessels that are not necessarily armed.
  • the frigate is for example followed at a distance of about 15 km for the naval ship, the two unarmed buildings following the frigate more closely.
  • the major armed building has powerful defenses to protect itself, such as an aircraft carrier, but it nevertheless requires to be defended by a first barrier of defense consisting of the frigate. The latter must for example remove 80% of the dangers.
  • the object of the invention is in particular to reduce this uncertainty rate.
  • the subject of the invention is a method for predicting the trajectory of a hostile aircraft, characterized in that the predicted trajectory ends on a fictitious impact point according to a predicted objective point targeted by the 'aircraft.
  • the main advantages of the invention are that it is applicable to countering many types of hostile aircraft, that it adapts to different types of trajectories of these aircraft and that it can adapt to existing systems. .
  • the figure 1 shows an example of a set of buildings represented by their location points F, C1, C2, HV.
  • a frigate F is ahead of a building of high value HV able to defend itself, an aircraft carrier for example.
  • a distance of about 15 km separates, for example, the frigate from the high-value building.
  • Two buildings C1, C2, called thereafter buildings consorts, follow the frigate.
  • the adjacent buildings C1, C2 are for example located in a circular zone of 6.5 km radius centered on the frigate F.
  • the frigate can fulfill its mission only if it knows what a hostile aircraft aims hence the need to predict the intended target.
  • the figure 1 present at a given moment, by a point H, the position of a hostile aircraft.
  • two trajectories T1, T2 are for example still possible. It is nevertheless necessary to predict as early as possible what is the right trajectory.
  • calculation means define the trajectory of a missile so that it meets the predicted trajectory of the hostile aircraft, the point of impact between the two gears taking place at the intersection of the two trajectories.
  • Hostile aircraft are for example missiles with great maneuverability, especially for short turns.
  • the figure 2 illustrates main steps for the implementation of the method according to the invention.
  • a first step 1 predicts a goal point targeted by a spotted aircraft, including hostile.
  • a second step 2 determines a fictitious point of impact according to the predicted objective goal point.
  • a third step 3 determines a trajectory of the aircraft ending at the previously determined fictitious impact point.
  • This trajectory is subsequently taken into account by anti-aircraft means, a missile for example, to define a meeting point between the latter and the hostile aircraft to which this trajectory is attributed, the destruction of the hostile aircraft being done by example at this meeting point.
  • anti-aircraft means a missile for example
  • a fictitious point of impact to define the trajectory of the identified aircraft and not using the predicted objective point, improves makes the chances of success of hitting a hostile aircraft. Indeed, once the objective point of the aircraft predicts, several trajectories are possible between this aircraft and the predicted objective point. All these trajectories can not for example be memorized by the calculation means associated with an anti-aircraft missile, these calculation means defining in particular from a predicted trajectory of the aircraft the meeting point of the latter with the missile.
  • a single trajectory can for example be memorized by the calculation means whereas by playing on one of the ends of this trajectory, the meeting point calculated on this trajectory can effectively correspond to the actual encounter of the missile or any other means of air defense and hostile aircraft.
  • An objective of the method according to the invention is therefore to provide the anti-aircraft missile, based on radar information and the position of the ships, the predicted position of the impact between a hostile aircraft and the missile so as to promote interception of the hostile aircraft.
  • the figure 3 illustrates an example of possible implementation of the method according to the invention by two substeps 11, 12, a first substep 11 of classification of potentially attackable ships followed by a second substep of determining the target objective .
  • the figure 4 present in the plane ( x, y ) the position O of a analyzed building and the position D of a hostile aircraft, all the buildings being analyzed successively.
  • the curve 41 represents a cubic trajectory, corresponding to the relation (1), for which the definition of the boundary conditions makes it possible to define the coefficients of the relation (1).
  • a principle adopted consists, for example, in associating a ship with a probability Pcap that is all the greater as the aircraft's heading of the runway. compared to the analyzed building is weak.
  • the probability Pcap is equal to 0. If ⁇ is between ⁇ min and ⁇ max, the probability decreases linearly from 1 to 0 as illustrated by figure 5 it is 1 when ⁇ is less than ⁇ min.
  • the hypothesis is for example that the closer a target is to a ship, the more likely it is to be targeted.
  • Relation (4) thus ensures a rather severe discrimination in distance between 5 km and 15 km.
  • the objective is to determine which vessels are being used to maneuver the hostile aircraft. This detection is based for example on the exploitation of the results of a linear regression on the last estimated positions.
  • the purpose of the linear regression on the last estimated positions makes it possible as far as possible to avoid an error in estimating the direction taken by the hostile aircraft. Only for example the window containing the last four positions estimated by the multifunction radar is considered.
  • the figure 6 illustrates the maneuver detection criterion.
  • a hostile aircraft H has successively three speed vectors V 1 , V 2 , V 3 .
  • the probability of maneuvering depends, for example, on the relative position of the last three speed vectors. V 1 , V 2 , V 3 relative to the aforementioned line 61, this probability increasing when these vectors are successively approaching the line, that is to say that the angle they make with the line decreases.
  • the probability Pm freezes at 1, that is to say, it no longer intervenes in the combination with the other criteria.
  • the probability Pm is fixed at 1 for example after a given number of speed vectors. V 4 successive aircraft on the same side of the line; this number may be equal for example to 3.
  • the classification of the ships is done, by combining for each of them the results of the three previously defined probabilities Pcap , Pdis and Pm.
  • the first possibility is simply to detain the vessel with the probability of being targeted at the highest Pv .
  • the second possibility is to calculate a center of gravity from the position of each weighted vessel by its probability of being targeted Pv, the calculated center of gravity then being considered as the point targeted by the aircraft. This second solution makes it possible to eliminate discontinuities.
  • the second step 2 determines a fictitious point of impact according to this predicted objective, this objective possibly being, for example, the vessel with the highest probability of be targeted or the center of gravity as previously calculated.
  • the second step 2 makes it possible to approximate the predicted cubic trajectory. of the real trajectory, in particular by reducing its curvature.
  • the second step 2 consists, in particular, of the target objective determined in step 1, to calculate a fictitious point of impact which reduces the curvature, by reducing the distance D and the heading angle ⁇ when these are too important.
  • the reduction of the curvature of the cubic trajectory thus brings the latter closer to the real trajectory.
  • the fictitious point of impact is for example located on the line segment between the predicted objective objective and the orthogonal projection of this predicted objective on the line borne by the speed vector of the hostile aircraft as illustrated by FIG. figure 8 .
  • the predicted objective is, for example, either the vessel with the highest probability of being targeted or the center of gravity of vessels weighted by their probabilities of being targeted.
  • the figure 8 represents by a point P and a vector V , the position and the speed vector of a hostile aircraft, the torque ( P, V ) still being called track as it was seen previously.
  • the second step determines for example a fictitious impact point I located on the line segment 81 between the position 0 of the predicted objective, located for example in the center of the x, y axis system , and the orthogonal projection N from this objective on the right 82 passing through the position P of the aircraft and carried by its speed vector V .
  • This fictitious point of impact is used as a new boundary condition to define the predicted cubic trajectory, starting from the fact that this trajectory ends at this point of fictitious impact.
  • the shape of the curvature is given by the relation (5) and the decrease of D and ⁇ decreases the curvature.
  • the figure 9 shows that the new distance D ' between the aircraft and the fictitious point of impact is less than the distance D between the predicted objective and the aircraft. It is the same for the course angles ⁇ ', ⁇ .
  • the coefficient ⁇ is a function of the distance D and the angle of heading ⁇ .
  • This coefficient ⁇ can for example be defined by neglecting the influence of the distance D. This can be especially enabled by the fact that the targets concerned are for example between 5 km and 15 km, in this range of distance only the influence the heading angle ⁇ being preponderant.
  • the figure 10 illustrates with a diagram an example of a possible determination of the coefficient ⁇ represented on the ordinate as a function of the heading angle ⁇ represented on the abscissa.
  • the coefficient ⁇ is limited for example to 0.5, especially not to reduce too much the length of the cubic trajectory. Indeed, the time the hostile aircraft has to travel the cubic trajectory to the point of fictitious impact must be large enough to allow an anti-aircraft missile to calculate the interception time. In this case, the fictitious impact point I is located on the first half of the segment [ ON ] starting from the position O of the predicted target objective.
  • a new cubic trajectory 101 is calculated in the third step 3 of the method according to the invention taking into account a point of fictitious impact as defined above. As the radius of curvature of the new cubic trajectory 101 has significantly decreased with respect to the first cubic trajectory 73, this new cubic trajectory is considerably closer to the real trajectory.
  • the trajectory 101 thus defined is then provided for example to an anti-aircraft missile whose calculation means will determine its point of intercept with the aircraft on the same trajectory.

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  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Chemical & Material Sciences (AREA)
  • Combustion & Propulsion (AREA)
  • Aviation & Aerospace Engineering (AREA)
  • Radar, Positioning & Navigation (AREA)
  • Remote Sensing (AREA)
  • Radar Systems Or Details Thereof (AREA)
  • Regulating Braking Force (AREA)
EP18175386.4A 2017-06-16 2018-05-31 Verfahren zur vorhersage der flugbahn eines feindlichen luftfahrzeugs, insbesondere im rahmen einer luftverteidigung Active EP3415860B1 (de)

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
FR1700646A FR3067840B1 (fr) 2017-06-16 2017-06-16 Procede de prediction de la trajectoire d'un aeronef hostile notamment dans le cadre d'une defense antiaerienne

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
EP3415860A1 true EP3415860A1 (de) 2018-12-19
EP3415860B1 EP3415860B1 (de) 2022-11-16

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EP18175386.4A Active EP3415860B1 (de) 2017-06-16 2018-05-31 Verfahren zur vorhersage der flugbahn eines feindlichen luftfahrzeugs, insbesondere im rahmen einer luftverteidigung

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EP (1) EP3415860B1 (de)
ES (1) ES2932621T3 (de)
FR (1) FR3067840B1 (de)

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111783358A (zh) * 2020-07-02 2020-10-16 哈尔滨工业大学 一种基于贝叶斯估计的高超速飞行器长期轨迹预报方法

Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
EP1610152A1 (de) * 2004-05-28 2005-12-28 Saab Ab Verfolgung eines sich bewegenden Objektes für ein Selbstverteidigungssystem
US20160131455A1 (en) * 2013-05-28 2016-05-12 Bae Systems Bofors Ab Method of fire control for gun-based anti-aircraft defence
KR20160070573A (ko) * 2014-12-10 2016-06-20 국방과학연구소 유도탄의 요격지점 실시간 예측 방법

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
EP1610152A1 (de) * 2004-05-28 2005-12-28 Saab Ab Verfolgung eines sich bewegenden Objektes für ein Selbstverteidigungssystem
US20160131455A1 (en) * 2013-05-28 2016-05-12 Bae Systems Bofors Ab Method of fire control for gun-based anti-aircraft defence
KR20160070573A (ko) * 2014-12-10 2016-06-20 국방과학연구소 유도탄의 요격지점 실시간 예측 방법

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111783358A (zh) * 2020-07-02 2020-10-16 哈尔滨工业大学 一种基于贝叶斯估计的高超速飞行器长期轨迹预报方法
CN111783358B (zh) * 2020-07-02 2022-10-04 哈尔滨工业大学 一种基于贝叶斯估计的高超速飞行器长期轨迹预报方法

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
FR3067840A1 (fr) 2018-12-21
EP3415860B1 (de) 2022-11-16
ES2932621T3 (es) 2023-01-23
FR3067840B1 (fr) 2022-05-27

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