CN116911599A - Urban inland inundation disaster factor risk assessment method for urban underground transformer substation - Google Patents
Urban inland inundation disaster factor risk assessment method for urban underground transformer substation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a city waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment method of a city underground transformer substation, which comprises the following steps: 1: establishing an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system of the position of the underground transformer substation; 2: assigning equal weights to the weight values; 3: adjusting each weight value according to expert scores; 4: according to the historical precipitation conditions, disaster factors of the urban underground transformer substation in each precipitation process are calculated, historical ranking is carried out on disaster factors H in all precipitation processes, and dangerous grades are formulated; 5: adjusting each weight value according to the historical ranking; 6: calculating disaster factor H of a certain precipitation process of the urban underground transformer substation in real time and projecting the disaster factor H into the historical ranking; 7: and determining the risk level according to the position of the disaster causing factor H in the historical ranking. The method can solve the problem that no method for accurately evaluating the risk level of the disaster-causing factor of the urban inland inundation exists in the prior art.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a risk assessment method for urban underground substation waterlogging, in particular to a risk assessment method for urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors of an urban underground substation.
Background
The main building of the underground transformer substation is built underground, the main transformer and other main electrical equipment are arranged in the underground building, and the ground is only built with a small amount of buildings such as ventilation openings and equipment of the transformer substation, personnel entrances and exits, and the like, and the cooling equipment and the main control room of the large main transformer which can be possibly arranged on the ground are arranged on the ground. With the increasing concern of urban waterlogging, the dangerous grade of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor at the underground substation needs to be evaluated in the process of site selection, construction and use of the underground substation.
For an urban underground transformer substation, the danger of urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors is derived from the intensity of precipitation on one hand; on the other hand, from the characteristic properties of the urban environment in which it is located. At present, in the site selection, construction and use processes of an urban underground transformer substation, no method for accurately evaluating the risk level of the disaster-causing factor of urban inland inundation exists. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method for evaluating the risk of urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors of an urban underground substation, which can solve the problem that no method for accurately evaluating the risk level of urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors exists in the prior art.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for evaluating the risk of urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors of an urban underground transformer substation, which can solve the problem that no method for accurately evaluating the risk level of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors exists in the prior art.
The invention is realized in the following way:
a city waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method of a city underground transformer substation comprises the following steps:
step 1: an index system evaluation method is adopted to establish an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk evaluation index system of the position of the underground transformer substation;
step 2: giving equal weight to each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system;
step 3: according to expert scores, adjusting each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system;
step 4: according to the historical precipitation conditions, calculating disaster factors H of the urban underground transformer substation in each precipitation process, performing historical ranking on the disaster factors H of all precipitation processes from high to low, and formulating a dangerous grade according to the historical ranking;
step 5: according to the historical ranking of all precipitation processes, adjusting each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system;
step 6: carrying out real-time calculation of disaster factors H on corresponding urban underground substations in a certain precipitation process by adopting an adjusted urban waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment index system, and projecting the calculated disaster factors H into the historical ranking of the step 4;
step 7: and determining the dangerous grade of the disaster causing factor H in a certain precipitation process of the urban underground transformer substation according to the position of the disaster causing factor H in the historical ranking obtained through real-time calculation.
The disaster factor H of the urban waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment index system is determined by the submerged depth, namely the submerged depth of the water body during urban waterlogging; and the submerged depth is determined by the precipitation amount P and the characteristic attribute of waterlogging of the position of the underground transformer substation.
The characteristic attribute of waterlogging comprises a runoff curve coefficient CN, a surrounding topography condition G, a Manning coefficient MN and drainage capacity V of a drainage unit, so that an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system of the position of the underground transformer substation can be expressed as follows:
H＝a*P+b*(b1*CN+b2*G+b3*MN+b4*V)(1)
wherein H is a disaster factor of a position of an underground transformer substation, P is precipitation (mm/H), a is weight of precipitation P, CN is a runoff curve coefficient, b1 is weight of the runoff curve coefficient CN, G is a surrounding topography condition, b2 is weight of the surrounding topography condition, MN is a Manning coefficient, b3 is weight of the Manning coefficient MN, V is drainage capacity of a drainage unit, and b4 is weight of drainage capacity V of the drainage unit; and a+b=1, b1+b2+b3+b4=1.
The method for obtaining the runoff curve coefficient CN comprises the following steps:
step 1.1.1: identifying wave bands according to different underlying surface types by utilizing satellite remote sensing data, and inverting the land utilization type of the underlying surface in city;
step 1.1.2: determining the distribution condition of the urban underground transformer substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficient CN according to the urban underlying land utilization type;
step 1.1.3: and calculating the average value of the urban underground substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficients CN of the urban underground substation, and extracting the average value to the station of the urban underground substation.
In the step 1.1.2, the range of the urban underground substation and the periphery thereof comprises: and the area range with the radius of 300m is centered on the underground substation.
The method for acquiring the Manning coefficient MN comprises the following steps:
step 1.2.1: identifying wave bands according to different underlying surface types by utilizing satellite remote sensing data, and inverting the land utilization type of the underlying surface in city;
step 1.2.2: according to the utilization type of the urban underlying land, the Manning coefficient corresponding to the periphery of the urban underground substation is calculated empirically;
step 1.2.3: and calculating the average value of the urban underground substation and the surrounding Manning coefficients MN thereof, and extracting the average value to the sites of the urban underground substation.
In the step 1.2.2, the range of the urban underground substation and the periphery thereof comprises: and the area range with the radius of 300m is centered on the underground substation.
The surrounding topography G comprises station elevation information of the urban underground substation and an average value of heights Cheng Chazhi of the stations and the surrounding areas.
After the data of the precipitation amount P, the runoff curve coefficient CN, the peripheral topography condition G, the Manning coefficient MN and the drainage capacity V of the drainage unit are obtained, normalization processing is carried out on each data, the data are converted into dimensionless pure numerical values, and the dimensionless pure numerical values are mapped onto the [0,1] interval in a unified mode.
In the step 4, in the historical ranking of all the disaster factors H caused by the precipitation process, the risk level 5% before the historical ranking is defined as high risk, the risk level 5-15% after the historical ranking is defined as medium risk, the risk level 15-30% after the historical ranking is defined as medium and low risk, and the risk level after the historical ranking is defined as low risk.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the method, a layered analysis method is utilized to establish an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system of a position where the urban underground transformer substation is located, the weight coefficient of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system is determined step by step through initial assignment, expert scoring and historical precipitation dynamic adjustment, and finally, the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk grade of the urban underground transformer substation is determined by adopting a historical ranking method.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of an index system for evaluating the risk of urban waterlogging disaster-causing factors in an urban underground substation according to the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk evaluating method.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the drawings and the specific examples.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for evaluating risk of disaster factors caused by urban waterlogging of an urban underground substation comprises the following steps:
step 1: and establishing an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system of the position of the underground transformer substation by adopting an index system assessment method.
The disaster factor H of the urban waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment index system is determined by the submerged depth, namely the submerged depth of the water body during urban waterlogging; and the submerged depth is determined by the precipitation amount P and the characteristic attribute of waterlogging of the position of the underground transformer substation.
The characteristic attribute of waterlogging comprises a runoff curve coefficient CN, a surrounding topography condition G, a Manning coefficient MN and drainage capacity V of a drainage unit, so that an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system of the position of the underground transformer substation can be expressed as follows:
H＝a*P+b*(b1*CN+b2*G+b3*MN+b4*V)(1)
wherein H is a disaster factor of a position of an underground transformer substation, P is precipitation (mm/H), a is weight of precipitation P, CN is a runoff curve coefficient, b1 is weight of the runoff curve coefficient CN, G is a surrounding topography condition, b2 is weight of the surrounding topography condition, MN is a Manning coefficient, b3 is weight of the Manning coefficient MN, V is drainage capacity of a drainage unit, and b4 is weight of drainage capacity V of the drainage unit; and a+b=1, b1+b2+b3+b4=1.
The method for obtaining the runoff curve coefficient CN comprises the following steps:
step 1.1.1: and identifying wave bands according to the echoes to different underlying surface types by utilizing satellite remote sensing data, and inverting the land utilization type of the underlying surface in city.
Step 1.1.2: according to the urban underground substation and the distribution situation of the peripheral runoff curve coefficient CN of the urban underground substation can be determined according to the urban underground land utilization type.
In the step 1.1.2, the range of the urban underground substation and the periphery thereof comprises: and the area range with the radius of 300m is centered on the underground substation.
Step 1.1.3: and (3) calculating the average value of the urban underground substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficient CN thereof, extracting the average value to the station of the urban underground substation, and taking the average value as CN to be in the formula (1).
From the urban inland inundation process, the urban underground transformer substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficient CN determine the quantity of the peripheral surface runoffs of the underground power transmission and transformation, and the diameter influences the risk of disaster factors. Therefore, with 300m as a radius, the average value of the urban underground substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficients thereof is calculated and extracted to the site.
In urban inland inundation research, the terrain in which the site being studied is located is one of the important parameters. The station is compared with the surrounding terrain in height, and the converging and diverging of surface runoff are directly affected. Therefore, when extracting the topographic information of the location of the urban underground substation, it is not enough to extract only the elevation at which it is located, and more importantly, the relative elevation thereof, i.e. the elevation difference at a different point from the surrounding topography.
The surrounding topography G comprises station elevation information of the urban underground substation and an average value of heights Cheng Chazhi of the stations and the surrounding areas.
In the surrounding topography case G, the range of the urban underground substation and its surrounding area includes an area range with a radius of 300m centered on the underground substation.
The method for acquiring the Manning coefficient MN comprises the following steps:
step 1.2.1: and identifying wave bands according to the echoes to different underlying surface types by utilizing satellite remote sensing data, and inverting the land utilization type of the underlying surface in city.
Step 1.2.2: according to the utilization type of the urban underlying land, the Manning coefficients corresponding to the urban underground transformer substation and the periphery thereof can be calculated empirically.
In the step 1.2.2, the range of the urban underground substation and the periphery thereof comprises: and the area range with the radius of 300m is centered on the underground substation.
Step 1.2.3: and (3) calculating the average value of the urban underground substation and the surrounding Manning coefficient MN thereof, extracting the average value to the site of the urban underground substation, and taking the average value as the MN to be carried into the formula (1).
Manning coefficient MN is also called Manning roughness coefficient, which characterizes the roughness of the earth surface in the urban inundation process. The lower the Manning coefficient MN value is, the larger the surface runoff flow velocity is, the value is generally measured by experimental data, and the table can be checked and selected when the table is used, and the description is omitted.
The drainage capacity V of the drainage unit is determined by the drainage capacity of the drainage unit at the position of the urban underground substation.
After the data of the precipitation amount P, the runoff curve coefficient CN, the peripheral topography condition G, the Manning coefficient MN and the drainage capacity V of the drainage unit are obtained, normalization processing is carried out on each data, the data are converted into dimensionless pure numerical values, and the dimensionless pure numerical values are mapped onto the [0,1] interval in a unified mode.
Through the normalization processing of the data, indexes of different units or orders of magnitude can be conveniently compared and weighted.
For the forward index, namely, in a certain range, the larger and the better the index value, dimensionless processing is adopted, the comparability of data is mainly solved, and a specific calculation formula is as follows:
for the reverse index, namely in a certain range, the smaller the index value is, the better the index value is, and the specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, the precipitation amount P and the runoff curve coefficient CN are forward indexes, and the peripheral topography condition G, the Manning coefficient MN and the drainage capacity V of the drainage unit are reverse indexes.
Step 2: and (3) giving equal weights to the weight values of the urban inland inundation disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system, namely a=b, b1=b2=b3=b4.
Step 3: and adjusting each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system according to expert scores, wherein the weight values comprise weights a, b1, b2, b3 and b4. In the adjustment process, a+b=1 is always maintained, and b1+b2+b3+b4=1 is only required.
The expert in the related field can adjust the weight values of the precipitation amount P, the runoff curve coefficient CN, the peripheral topography condition G, the Manning coefficient MN and the drainage capacity V of the drainage unit according to scientific research data, test data, experience and the like of the position of the urban underground substation, and the adjustment has no fixed standard and can be adaptively adjusted according to the experience of the expert in the related field.
Step 4: according to the historical precipitation conditions, calculating disaster causing factors H of the urban underground transformer substation in each precipitation process according to a formula (1), carrying out historical ranking on the disaster causing factors H of all precipitation processes from high to low, and setting a dangerous grade according to the historical ranking.
In the historical ranking of all the disaster factors H in the rainfall process, the risk level 5% (including 5%) before the historical ranking is defined as high risk, the risk level 5-15% (excluding 5% and including 15%) after the historical ranking is defined as medium risk, the risk level 15-30% (excluding 15% and including 30%) after the historical ranking is defined as medium and low risk, and the risk level 30% after the historical ranking is defined as low risk.
Step 5: and adjusting each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system according to the historical ranking of all the precipitation processes, wherein the weight values comprise weights a, b1, b2, b3 and b4.
In the adjustment process, for the same site, the stronger the precipitation process is, the higher the danger is, when the precipitation amount contradicts with the danger, the corresponding weight needs to be adjusted to ensure the accuracy of the historical ranking, but the adjustment process should always keep a+b=1, and b1+b2+b3+b4=1.
Step 6: and (3) carrying out real-time calculation on the disaster-causing factors H in a certain precipitation process of the corresponding urban underground transformer substation by adopting the adjusted urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system, and projecting the calculated disaster-causing factors H into the historical ranking of the step (4).
Step 7: and determining the dangerous grade of the disaster causing factor H in a certain precipitation process of the urban underground transformer substation according to the position of the disaster causing factor H in the historical ranking obtained through real-time calculation.
And building an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system for all urban underground substations, so that the grade management of the risk is carried out on all urban underground substations in a certain city.
Referring to fig. 1, example 1:
taking the Shanghai of a China city as an example, 11 city underground substations (national stations) are taken as the Shanghai in total, and a city waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system is established for each city underground substation, namely H=a, P+b (b1, CN+b2, G+b3, MN+b4, V).
Wherein, the radius of the peripheral range of the urban underground substation is 300m.
And (3) selecting the extreme precipitation amount in 1981-2020 hours, calculating precipitation amounts P in different reproduction periods, and respectively adjusting the weights of the risk assessment index systems of the waterlogging disaster-causing factors of the cities according to expert scores and historical precipitation conditions.
Under different precipitation conditions, disaster factors H of 11 urban underground substations are calculated through an urban waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment index system respectively and projected to historical arrangement, and the risk level of the disaster factors H is determined. From the calculation results, it can be seen that:
in the extreme rainfall situation in five years, the disaster causing factor H is medium and low in danger for 11 urban underground substations. Wherein, the danger is low except the middle ring in the Shanghai; the part of the station inside the inner ring is of low risk.
In the extreme precipitation situation in ten years, the disaster causing factors H of the urban underground transformer substations beyond the middle ring are still mainly low in risk, the risk level of the disaster causing factors H of all stations within the inner ring is improved from low risk to medium-low risk, and medium risk occurs in part of stations.
In the extreme rainfall situation in twenty years, the disaster causing factor H risk level of each station in the inner ring is increased to medium risk, the disaster causing factor H risk level of most stations outside the inner ring is increased to medium risk, and only individual stations still maintain low risk.
In the situation of extremely lowering water in fifty years, the hazard class of disaster factor H of each station within the inner ring is improved to be medium-high hazard, namely, the high hazard of the ink station is generated; the hazard class of disaster causing factor H of each site except the middle ring is improved to medium hazard and medium and low hazard.
In the extreme precipitation situation in centuries, the hazard level of the disaster causing factor H of most sites in the inner ring is increased to high hazard, and the hazard level of the disaster causing factor H of other sites also reaches medium and high hazard; the hazard class of disaster causing factor H of each site except the middle ring is increased to the middle hazard.
The foregoing description of the preferred embodiments of the invention is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, and therefore, any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. that fall within the spirit and principles of the invention are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A city waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for a city underground transformer substation is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: an index system evaluation method is adopted to establish an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk evaluation index system of the position of the underground transformer substation;
step 2: giving equal weight to each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system;
step 3: according to expert scores, adjusting each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system;
step 4: according to the historical precipitation conditions, calculating disaster factors H of the urban underground transformer substation in each precipitation process, performing historical ranking on the disaster factors H of all precipitation processes from high to low, and formulating a dangerous grade according to the historical ranking;
step 5: according to the historical ranking of all precipitation processes, adjusting each weight value of the urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system;
step 6: carrying out real-time calculation of disaster factors H on corresponding urban underground substations in a certain precipitation process by adopting an adjusted urban waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment index system, and projecting the calculated disaster factors H into the historical ranking of the step 4;
step 7: and determining the dangerous grade of the disaster causing factor H in a certain precipitation process of the urban underground transformer substation according to the position of the disaster causing factor H in the historical ranking obtained through real-time calculation.
2. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the disaster factor H of the urban waterlogging disaster factor risk assessment index system is determined by the submerged depth, namely the submerged depth of the water body during urban waterlogging; and the submerged depth is determined by the precipitation amount P and the characteristic attribute of waterlogging of the position of the underground transformer substation.
3. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 2, characterized by comprising the following steps: the characteristic attribute of waterlogging comprises a runoff curve coefficient CN, a surrounding topography condition G, a Manning coefficient MN and drainage capacity V of a drainage unit, so that an urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment index system of the position of the underground transformer substation can be expressed as follows:
H＝a*P+b*(b1*CN+b2*G+b3*MN+b4*V) (1)
wherein H is a disaster factor of a position of an underground transformer substation, P is precipitation, a is weight of precipitation P, CN is a runoff curve coefficient, b1 is weight of a runoff curve coefficient CN, G is a surrounding topography condition, b2 is weight of a surrounding topography condition G, MN is a Manning coefficient, b3 is weight of Manning coefficient MN, V is drainage capacity of a drainage unit, and b4 is weight of drainage capacity V of the drainage unit; and a+b=1, b1+b2+b3+b4=1.
4. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 3, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method for obtaining the runoff curve coefficient CN comprises the following steps:
step 1.1.1: identifying wave bands according to different underlying surface types by utilizing satellite remote sensing data, and inverting the land utilization type of the underlying surface in city;
step 1.1.2: determining the distribution condition of the urban underground transformer substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficient CN according to the urban underlying land utilization type;
step 1.1.3: and calculating the average value of the urban underground substation and the peripheral runoff curve coefficients CN of the urban underground substation, and extracting the average value to the station of the urban underground substation.
5. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 4, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: in the step 1.1.2, the range of the urban underground substation and the periphery thereof comprises: and the area range with the radius of 300m is centered on the underground substation.
6. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 3, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method for acquiring the Manning coefficient MN comprises the following steps:
step 1.2.1: identifying wave bands according to different underlying surface types by utilizing satellite remote sensing data, and inverting the land utilization type of the underlying surface in city;
step 1.2.2: according to the utilization type of the urban underlying land, the Manning coefficient corresponding to the periphery of the urban underground substation is calculated empirically;
step 1.2.3: and calculating the average value of the urban underground substation and the surrounding Manning coefficients MN thereof, and extracting the average value to the sites of the urban underground substation.
7. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 6, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: in the step 1.2.2, the range of the urban underground substation and the periphery thereof comprises: and the area range with the radius of 300m is centered on the underground substation.
8. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 3, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the surrounding topography G comprises station elevation information of the urban underground substation and an average value of heights Cheng Chazhi of the stations and the surrounding areas.
9. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 3, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: after the data of the precipitation amount P, the runoff curve coefficient CN, the peripheral topography condition G, the Manning coefficient MN and the drainage capacity V of the drainage unit are obtained, normalization processing is carried out on each data, the data are converted into dimensionless pure numerical values, and the dimensionless pure numerical values are mapped onto the [0,1] interval in a unified mode.
10. The urban waterlogging disaster-causing factor risk assessment method for the urban underground substation according to claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: in the step 4, in the historical ranking of all the disaster factors H caused by the precipitation process, the risk level 5% before the historical ranking is defined as high risk, the risk level 5-15% after the historical ranking is defined as medium risk, the risk level 15-30% after the historical ranking is defined as medium and low risk, and the risk level after the historical ranking is defined as low risk.
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