CN116861298A - Watershed hydrological model parameter estimation method for non-data area - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application discloses a method for estimating parameters of a watershed hydrological model in a non-data area, which comprises the following steps: determining a research drainage basin and a reference drainage basin, and collecting and arranging hydrological elements and underlying surface characteristic data; selecting a watershed hydrological model, performing sensitivity analysis on parameters of the hydrological model based on a historical hydrological meteorological data sequence of a reference watershed, and grouping all the parameters; based on grouping results, selecting similar reference drainage basins by adopting different indexes, and calibrating hydrological model parameters of different groups based on long-sequence actual measurement data of the similar reference drainage basins respectively to obtain parameter estimation values of hydrological models of the reference drainage basins in different groups; and calculating the parameter estimation values of the reference basin hydrologic model meeting the similar conditions to obtain all parameter values of the research basin hydrologic model. The method can fully utilize a plurality of reference waterbasins meeting the grouping similarity condition to carry out the hydrological model parameter estimation, and can provide a new thought for the hydrological model parameter estimation of the waterbasins in the non-data area.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of basin hydrologic models, in particular to a basin hydrologic model parameter estimation method for a non-data area.
Background
The basin hydrologic model is a tool for generalizing complex space-time variability in the basin rainfall runoff conversion process, and is an important means for researching basin hydrologic natural rules and solving hydrologic practical problems. The watershed hydrologic model takes a watershed hydrologic system as a research object and is widely applied to the fields of hydrologic simulation forecasting, water resource planning and management and the like. The estimation of the parameters of the basin hydrologic model plays a very important role in the simulation forecasting precision of the basin runoff.
The parameters of the drainage basin hydrologic model are estimated usually based on hydrologic observation data of historical period of a research area, and are obtained by adopting an optimization algorithm. The calibration of model parameters depends on actually measured hydrologic data, and the length of a data sequence has a certain influence on the simulation forecasting precision of the runoff of the river basin. However, a large number of watercourses without hydrological observation data or without hydrological observation data still exist in the global scope at present, for example, hydrological sites in China are mainly distributed on large and medium rivers, and the distribution of the hydrological sites for small rivers is very small. Hydrologic data, particularly runoff data, have a decisive effect on parameter calibration of a hydrologic model, and for most small rivers, the runoff data is complex to observe and has high cost, and the runoff data is difficult to obtain. Therefore, the research of the parameter estimation method for the watershed hydrologic model in the non-data area has important scientific significance and practical value.
Disclosure of Invention
The application aims to provide a method for estimating hydrologic model parameters of a river basin in a non-data area, which solves the problem that the hydrologic model parameters of the non-data area cannot be calibrated due to the lack of data by means of estimating model parameters of a reference river basin with actual measured hydrologic meteorological data and performing migration.
In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides a method for estimating parameters of a watershed hydrological model in a non-data area, comprising:
determining a research drainage basin and a reference drainage basin, and collecting and arranging hydrological elements and underlying surface characteristic data of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin;
selecting a watershed hydrological model, performing sensitivity analysis on parameters of the hydrological model based on a historical hydrological data sequence of the reference watershed, and grouping all parameters of the hydrological model;
based on grouping results, selecting similar reference drainage basins by adopting different indexes, and calibrating hydrological model parameters of different groups based on long-sequence actual measurement data of the similar reference drainage basins respectively to obtain parameter estimation values of reference drainage basin hydrological models in different groups;
calculating parameter estimation values of a reference basin hydrological model meeting similar conditions, and obtaining all parameter values of a research basin hydrological model;
wherein the research river basin is a river basin of a non-data area, and the reference river basin is a river basin with long-time sequence hydrometeorologic observation data.
Preferably, grouping all parameters of the hydrologic model includes:
performing sensitivity analysis on all parameters of the hydrologic model by adopting a global sensitivity analysis method, dividing the parameters into sensitive parameters and non-sensitive parameters, and then dividing the sensitive parameters into meteorological element sensitive parameters and underlying characteristic sensitive parameters by adopting a control variable method;
and directly taking the arithmetic average value of the parameter values obtained by calibrating a plurality of reference waterbasins as the value of the insensitive parameter of the hydrologic model of the research waterbasin for the insensitive parameter of the hydrologic model.
Preferably, the similar reference basin includes a similar reference basin one and a similar reference basin two, and selecting the similar reference basin one includes:
and respectively calculating meteorological element indexes of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin based on the remote sensing inversion data of the meteorological elements of the water and the reference drainage basin and the observation data of the meteorological stations, selecting the reference drainage basin similar to the meteorological element indexes of the research drainage basin as a similar drainage basin, and transferring the meteorological element sensitivity parameters acquired by the similar reference drainage basin as a standard to the research drainage basin.
Preferably, the hydrographic meteorological element remote sensing inversion data comprises precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data, and the meteorological element indexes comprise average annual precipitation, drought index and precipitation seasonal index;
the method for calculating the meteorological element index comprises the following steps:
wherein ,is the average annual precipitation; p (P) t Precipitation for the t-th year; n represents the number of years; AI is drought index; />Is the average annual potential vapor emission; p (P) i 、PET i Average precipitation amount of the ith month and average potential evaporation amount of the ith month; SI (service information indicator) P Is a seasonal index of precipitation; phi i Representing the time angle of each month during the seasonal index calculation.
Preferably, the basis similar to the index of the meteorological element of the research river basin comprises: the relative difference value of the meteorological element index values of the research river basin and the reference river basin is within +/-10 percent.
Preferably, selecting the similar reference basin two comprises:
based on the physical characteristics of the research drainage basin, the reference drainage basin and the underlying surface element remote sensing products, respectively calculating underlying surface characteristic indexes of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin, selecting a reference drainage basin similar to the underlying surface characteristic indexes of the research drainage basin as a similar reference drainage basin II, and transferring an underlying surface characteristic sensitivity parameter value obtained by calibrating the similar reference drainage basin II to the research drainage basin.
Preferably, the physical property, underlying element remote sensing product comprises: digital elevation DEM data, land use type LULC data, and normalized vegetation index NDVI data;
the underlying surface characteristic index comprises: main river channel river slope index, vegetation coverage, kappa coefficient of research river basin and reference river basin LULC.
Preferably, the method for calculating the characteristic index of the underlying surface is as follows:
SL is the river slope index of the main river; h 1 、H 2 The river end point height and the starting point height are respectively; l is the horizontal distance between the river end point and the start point; FVC is river basin vegetation coverage; NDVI is vegetation normalization index; NDVI soil 、NDVI veg NDVI values for pure vegetation and bare soil, respectively; k represents a Kappa coefficient; r is the number of rows of the confusion matrix; x is X kk Representing the value on the k-th row, k-column, i.e. the value on the main diagonal of the matrix; x is X k+ 、X +k Respectively representing the sum of the kth row and the sum of the kth column; n is the total number of pixels.
Preferably, the basis similar to the characteristic index of the underlying surface of the research river basin comprises: the relative difference value of the main river channel gradient index and the vegetation coverage in the characteristic indexes of the underlying surface of the research river basin and the reference river basin is within +/-20%, and the Kappa coefficient value of the research river basin and the LULC of the reference river basin is more than or equal to 0.4.
Compared with the prior art, the application has the following advantages and technical effects:
according to the method, the hydrologic model parameters are divided into sensitive parameters and insensitive parameters according to a sensitivity analysis means, the sensitive parameters are further subdivided into a meteorological element dominant type and an underlying surface characteristic dominant type, a plurality of reference waterbasins meeting grouping similar conditions can be fully utilized for hydrologic model parameter estimation, and a new idea can be provided for the hydrologic model parameter estimation of the waterbasins in the non-data area;
the method can fully utilize the basin information meeting the similar conditions of different categories, obtain a plurality of sets of basin hydrological model parameter value sets through the partial matching of the comprehensive characteristics of the basins, and realize the hydrological model parameter estimation of the non-data area.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the application and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the application and together with the description serve to explain the application. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for estimating parameters of a basin hydrological model in a data-free region according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
It should be noted that, without conflict, the embodiments of the present application and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other. The application will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings in connection with embodiments.
It should be noted that the steps illustrated in the flowcharts of the figures may be performed in a computer system such as a set of computer executable instructions, and that although a logical order is illustrated in the flowcharts, in some cases the steps illustrated or described may be performed in an order other than that illustrated herein.
As shown in fig. 1, the application provides a method for estimating hydrological model parameters of a watershed in a non-data area, which classifies model parameters according to hydrological remote sensing inversion products of a research watershed and a reference watershed and hydrological long-sequence observation data of the reference watershed by using a hydrological model parameter sensitivity analysis method, selects similar reference watershed according to different discrimination indexes for different types of model parameters, and then calibrates different types of model parameters based on the screened similar reference watershed hydrological data, finally obtains all types of hydrological model parameters of the research watershed, and further realizes the estimation of the hydrological model parameters of the watershed in the non-data area.
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
and step 1, collecting and arranging hydrological elements and underlying surface characteristic data of the research river basin and the reference river basin by taking the river basin of the non-data area as a target river basin and taking a plurality of river basins with long-time sequence hydrological observation data as reference river basins.
Selecting a target research river basin, and taking a river basin with long-time sequence hydrological weather actual measurement data in China as a reference river basin;
collecting hydrological weather remote sensing inversion product data of a target river basin and all reference river basins, wherein the hydrological weather remote sensing inversion product data comprise rainfall and potential evaporation data, and collecting hydrological weather actual measurement data of all reference river basins, wherein the hydrological weather actual measurement data comprise rainfall, daily maximum air temperature, daily minimum air temperature and river basin outlet section runoff;
remote sensing data of the target river basin and all reference river basins are collected, wherein the remote sensing data comprise digital elevation DEM data, land utilization type LULC data and normalized vegetation index NDVI data.
And 2, selecting a watershed hydrological model, carrying out sensitivity analysis on parameters of the hydrological model based on a historical hydrological data sequence of a reference watershed, and grouping all the parameters in the hydrological model.
Taking a distributed hydrological model SWAT model as an example, constructing an input database of the SWAT model according to collected actual measurement hydrological weather of a reference basin and remote sensing data, including rainfall, air temperature, land utilization type and soil attribute databases, setting a simulation scale as a month scale based on the actual measurement runoff data of the reference basin, iterating 1000 times per group, the sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters of the model by adopting SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP software, and the parameters of the SWAT model are firstly divided into a sensitivity parameter set theta according to the calculated t-stat and p-value values and the principle that the larger the absolute value of the t-stat is, the smaller the p-value is and the more sensitive is the parameters s And a non-sensitivity parameter set Θ ns The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Subsequently, for the set of sensitivity parameters Θ s Firstly, a Monte Carlo sampling method is adopted to disturb rainfall and air temperature input data and generate a plurality of groups of samples, and a sensitivity parameter set theta is aimed at s Performing parameter calibration; setting sensitivity parameter set theta for different land utilization types and soil attribute data scenes s Is calibrated according to the parameters; according to the sensitivity parameter theta of two times s Combining the probability distribution map of parameter values to set the sensitivity parameters theta s Is further divided into meteorological element sensitive parameters theta cs And underlying surface feature sensitivity parameter Θ ps 。
And 3, directly setting an arithmetic average value of obtained parameter values based on a plurality of reference drainage basin rates as a value of the insensitive parameter of the drainage basin hydrologic model.
For the non-sensitivity parameter set Θ ns Based on the measured hydrological weather and remote sensing data of a plurality of reference basins, an input database of a SWAT model is constructed, and based on the measured runoff data of the reference basins, a SWAT-CUP tool is adopted to carry out parameter calibration of the model, so as to obtain a plurality of groups of non-sensitive parameter sets theta of the SWAT model ns Is used for the estimation of the estimated value of (a).
And 4, respectively calculating meteorological element indexes of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin based on the hydrological meteorological element remote sensing inversion data of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin and the meteorological site observation data in or adjacent to the drainage basin, selecting the reference drainage basin similar to the meteorological element indexes of the research area as a similar drainage basin, and directly transferring the meteorological element sensitivity parameter values obtained by rating the similar drainage basin to the research area.
According to rainfall and potential evaporative emission remote sensing product data of a study area, calculating a surface average rainfall P and a surface average potential evaporative emission PET sequence of the study area by adopting a Kriging interpolation method in an ArcGIS tool box; based on the rainfall and potential evaporation station actual measurement data of the reference drainage basin, calculating the surface average rainfall P and the surface average potential evaporation PET sequence of the research drainage basin by adopting a Thiessen polygon method.
Calculating the annual average annual precipitation, drought index and seasonal precipitation index of the research river basin and the reference river basin, wherein the calculation formulas are respectively as follows:
in the formula ：the average annual precipitation for many years is mm; p (P) t For the t th yearAnnual precipitation in mm; n represents the number of years; AI is drought index; />The potential vapor emission amount is mm for years on average; p (P) i 、PET i Average precipitation amount of the ith month and average potential evaporation amount of the ith month are respectively mm; SI (service information indicator) P Is a seasonal index of precipitation; phi i The time angle of each month in the seasonal index calculation process is shown in the table 1, and the time angle of 1-12 months is shown in the table 1.
TABLE 1
Based on the calculated meteorological element indexes of the research river basin and the reference river basin, the relative change rates between the research river basin and the reference river basin are calculated respectively:
wherein: delta represents the relative rate of change of the index; subscripts obj and ref represent study watershed and reference watershed, respectively.
If the relative change rates of the 3 indexes all meet-10% delta-10%, the reference river basin is considered to be similar to the research river basin in meeting meteorological elements.
Then, based on the hydrometeorologic actual measurement data of the similar watershed of the screened meteorological elements, the SWAT-CUP software is adopted to make the meteorological element sensitive parameters theta of the SWAT model cs Parameter calibration is carried out to obtain meteorological element sensitive parameters of a plurality of groups of SWAT modelsAggregation Θ cs Is used for the estimation of the estimated value of (a).
And 5, respectively calculating the characteristic indexes of the underlying surface of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin based on the physical characteristics of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin and the underlying surface element remote sensing products, selecting the reference drainage basin similar to the characteristic indexes of the underlying surface of the research area as a similar drainage basin, and directly transferring the parameter values of the underlying surface characteristic sensitivity obtained by rating the similar drainage basin to the research area.
According to digital elevation DEM data of a research river basin and a reference river basin, land utilization type LULC data and normalized vegetation index NDVI data, calculating river slope index and vegetation coverage of a main river channel and Kappa coefficients of the research river basin and the reference river basin LULC, wherein the calculation formulas are respectively as follows:
wherein: SL is the river slope index of the main river; h 1 、H 2 The river end point height and the starting point height are respectively m; l is the horizontal distance between the river end point and the starting point, m; FVC is river basin vegetation coverage; NDVI is vegetation normalization index; NDVI soil 、NDVI veg NDVI values for pure vegetation and bare soil, respectively, are typically selected for cumulative frequencies of 2% and 98%; k represents a Kappa coefficient; r is the number of rows of the confusion matrix; x is X kk Representing the value on the k-th row, k-column, i.e. the value on the main diagonal of the matrix; x is X k+ 、X +k Respectively representing the sum of the kth row and the sum of the kth column; n is the total number of pixels.
Based on the calculated main river channel gradient index and vegetation coverage of the research river basin and the reference river basin, the relative change rates between the main river channel gradient index and the vegetation coverage are calculated respectively:
wherein: delta represents the relative rate of change of the index; subscripts obj and ref represent study watershed and reference watershed, respectively.
If the relative change rates of the river slope index and the vegetation coverage of the main river channel all meet delta which is less than or equal to 20% and less than or equal to 20%, and the Kappa coefficient K of the land utilization type LULC is more than or equal to 0.4, the reference river basin is considered to be similar to the research river basin in meeting the characteristics of the underlying surface. Subsequently, based on the hydrometeorologic measured data of the similar drainage basin of the selected underlying surface characteristics, the SWAT-CUP software is adopted to sensitively determine parameters theta of the underlying surface characteristics of the SWAT model ps Parameter calibration is carried out to obtain a plurality of groups of underlying surface feature sensitive parameter sets theta of SWAT models ps Is used for the estimation of the estimated value of (a).
And 6, calculating an arithmetic average value of all the reference basin hydrological model parameter estimated values meeting similar conditions for the parameters of different groups to obtain all the parameter values of the hydrological model of the research basin.
For theta ns The single parameter in the set takes the value equal to the arithmetic average of the estimated values of the multiple groups of parameters. Finally, the obtained insensitivity parameter set theta ns As corresponding parameter estimates for the study basin SWAT model.
For theta cs The single parameter in the set takes the value equal to the arithmetic average of the estimated values of the multiple groups of parameters. Finally, the acquired meteorological element sensitive type parameter set theta cs As corresponding parameter estimates for the study basin SWAT model.
For theta ps The single parameter in the set takes the value equal to the arithmetic average of the estimated values of the multiple groups of parameters. Finally, the obtained underlying surface characteristic sensitive parameter set theta ps As corresponding parameter estimates for the study basin SWAT model.
The insensitivity Condition theta obtained above is integrated ns Meteorological element sensitive parameter Θ cs Underlying surface feature sensitivity parameter Θ ps The estimated value of (a) is the parameter estimation result of the SWAT model of the research river basin (without data river basin).
The present application is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily understood by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present application are intended to be included in the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (9)
1. A method for estimating parameters of a watershed hydrological model in a non-data region, comprising:
determining a research drainage basin and a reference drainage basin, and collecting and arranging hydrological elements and underlying surface characteristic data of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin;
selecting a watershed hydrological model, performing sensitivity analysis on parameters of the hydrological model based on a historical hydrological data sequence of the reference watershed, and grouping all parameters of the hydrological model;
based on grouping results, selecting similar reference drainage basins by adopting different indexes, and calibrating hydrological model parameters of different groups based on long-sequence actual measurement data of the similar reference drainage basins respectively to obtain parameter estimation values of reference drainage basin hydrological models in different groups;
calculating parameter estimation values of a reference basin hydrological model meeting similar conditions, and obtaining all parameter values of a research basin hydrological model;
wherein the research river basin is a river basin of a non-data area, and the reference river basin is a river basin with long-time sequence hydrometeorologic observation data.
2. The method of estimating parameters of a basin hydrological model of a dataless region according to claim 1, characterized in that grouping all parameters of the hydrological model comprises:
performing sensitivity analysis on all parameters of the hydrologic model by adopting a global sensitivity analysis method, dividing the parameters into sensitive parameters and non-sensitive parameters, and then dividing the sensitive parameters into meteorological element sensitive parameters and underlying characteristic sensitive parameters by adopting a control variable method;
and directly taking the arithmetic average value of the parameter values obtained by calibrating a plurality of reference waterbasins as the value of the insensitive parameter of the hydrologic model of the research waterbasin for the insensitive parameter of the hydrologic model.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the similar reference basin comprises a first similar reference basin and a second similar reference basin, and wherein selecting the first similar reference basin comprises:
and respectively calculating meteorological element indexes of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin based on the remote sensing inversion data of the meteorological elements of the water and the reference drainage basin and the observation data of the meteorological stations, selecting the reference drainage basin similar to the meteorological element indexes of the research drainage basin as a similar drainage basin, and transferring the meteorological element sensitivity parameters acquired by the similar reference drainage basin as a standard to the research drainage basin.
4. A method of estimating parameters of a watershed hydrological model in a data-free area according to claim 3, wherein the hydrological element remote sensing inversion data comprises precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data, and the meteorological element indicators comprise average annual precipitation, drought index and seasonal index of precipitation;
the method for calculating the meteorological element index comprises the following steps:
wherein ,is the average annual precipitation; p (P) t Precipitation for the t-th year; n represents the number of years; AI is drought index; />Is the average annual potential vapor emission; p (P) i 、PET i Average precipitation amount of the ith month and average potential evaporation amount of the ith month; SI (service information indicator) P Is a seasonal index of precipitation; phi i Representing the time angle of each month during the seasonal index calculation.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the basis for similarity to the index of the meteorological elements of the research basin comprises: the relative difference value of the meteorological element index values of the research river basin and the reference river basin is within +/-10 percent.
6. A watershed hydrological model parameter estimation method according to claim 3, characterized in that selecting said similar reference watershed two comprises:
based on the physical characteristics of the research drainage basin, the reference drainage basin and the underlying surface element remote sensing products, respectively calculating underlying surface characteristic indexes of the research drainage basin and the reference drainage basin, selecting a reference drainage basin similar to the underlying surface characteristic indexes of the research drainage basin as a similar reference drainage basin II, and transferring an underlying surface characteristic sensitivity parameter value obtained by calibrating the similar reference drainage basin II to the research drainage basin.
7. The method of estimating parameters of a basin hydrological model in a data-free area of claim 6, wherein said physical property, underlying element remote sensing product comprises: digital elevation DEM data, land use type LULC data, and normalized vegetation index NDVI data;
the underlying surface characteristic index comprises: main river channel river slope index, vegetation coverage, kappa coefficient of research river basin and reference river basin LULC.
8. The method of estimating parameters of a basin hydrological model in a data-free area of claim 7, wherein the method of calculating the underlying surface feature index is:
SL is the river slope index of the main river; h 1 、H 2 The river end point height and the starting point height are respectively; l is the horizontal distance between the river end point and the start point; FVC is river basin vegetation coverage; NDVI is vegetation normalization index; NDVI soil 、NDVI veg NDVI values for pure vegetation and bare soil, respectively; k represents a Kappa coefficient; r is the number of rows of the confusion matrix; x is X kk Representing the value on the k-th row, k-column, i.e. the value on the main diagonal of the matrix; x is X k+ 、X +k Respectively representing the sum of the kth row and the sum of the kth column; n is the total number of pixels.
9. The method of estimating parameters of a basin hydrological model in a non-data area of claim 7, wherein the basis for similarity to the characteristics of the underlying surface of the research basin comprises: the relative difference value of the main river channel gradient index and the vegetation coverage in the characteristic indexes of the underlying surface of the research river basin and the reference river basin is within +/-20%, and the Kappa coefficient value of the research river basin and the LULC of the reference river basin is more than or equal to 0.4.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN117057174A (en) * | 2023-10-13 | 2023-11-14 | 长江三峡集团实业发展(北京)有限公司 | Runoff prediction method for data-missing area |
| CN117057174B (en) * | 2023-10-13 | 2024-01-26 | 长江三峡集团实业发展(北京)有限公司 | Runoff prediction method for data-missing area |
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