CN115564222A - Comprehensive evaluation method and system for hybrid pumped storage power station - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method of a hybrid pumped storage power station, which comprises the steps of obtaining data information of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated; establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated; determining the weight value of each evaluation index; and comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The invention also discloses a system for realizing the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped storage power station. The method adopts an order relation analysis method to confirm the index weight, adopts a fuzzy evaluation method to judge the effectiveness of the evaluation opinions, and adopts an objective scientific method to comprehensively calculate the weight result; therefore, the method can reflect the condition of index benefits of various aspects of the power station, improves the effectiveness of the evaluation result, and has high reliability, good accuracy and objective science.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid operation, and particularly relates to a comprehensive evaluation method and a comprehensive evaluation system for a hybrid pumped storage power station.
Background
With the development of economic technology and the improvement of living standard of people, electric energy becomes essential secondary energy in production and life of people, and brings endless convenience to production and life of people. Therefore, ensuring a stable and reliable supply of electric energy is one of the most important tasks of an electric power system.
At present, with more and more new energy power generation systems being incorporated into a power grid, new energy grid-connected capacity is greatly improved, power structures are continuously complex and diverse, and new energy grid-connected consumption problems are increasingly obvious. Under the development environment, the pumped storage is taken as the mature energy storage technology at present, and becomes the energy storage technology which is widely applied at present due to the technical characteristics of large rated power, long continuous discharge time, rapid and flexible start and stop of a unit and the like. Pumped storage power stations are also the most widely used energy storage facilities at present.
However, the traditional pumped storage unit has a relatively slow development speed because of the scarce site resources, the strict requirements on natural environment and reservoir site selection and the long construction period. In consideration of the problem of difficult construction of a conventional pumped storage power station, the conventional hydroelectric power station and the pumped storage power station are usually developed in a combined manner at present, and a reversible unit is built or the installed capacity is enlarged and a water pump is built by utilizing the built hydropower station, so that the conventional hydropower station has the function of pumping and storing water; moreover, such a modified power plant is called a hybrid pumped-hydro power plant. The improvement and development of the hybrid pumped storage power station can optimize and improve the operation of the conventional hydropower station and provide more development space of energy storage resources; therefore, this technique has received extensive attention from researchers.
Although a great deal of technical benefits and economic benefits can be brought by transforming a conventional hydropower station into a hybrid pumped storage power station, a set of complete, mature, objective and scientific comprehensive benefit analysis method for the hybrid pumped storage power station is still lacked at present. The conventional hydropower station is transformed into the hybrid pumped storage power station, so that the development is slow, and more problems are brought to the construction, planning and operation of the subsequent power station.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation method of a hybrid pumped storage power station, which has high reliability, good accuracy and objective science.
The invention also aims to provide a system for realizing the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped storage power station.
The comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped storage power station provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring data information of a hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated;
s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the data information obtained in the step S1;
s3, determining the weight value of each evaluation index by adopting an order relation analysis method according to the comprehensive evaluation index system established in the step S2;
and S4, according to the comprehensive evaluation index system obtained in the step S2 and the weight values of the evaluation indexes obtained in the step S3, comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
Step S2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the data information obtained in the step S1, and specifically comprising the following steps:
the first-level indexes of the comprehensive evaluation index system comprise a functional benefit index, an economic benefit index and an environmental benefit index;
the functional benefit indexes comprise 4 secondary indexes including unit equivalent availability coefficients, the number of hours of electricity generation and utilization of a conventional unit, the number of hours of water pumping and utilization of a storage unit and the success rate of electricity generation and starting of the storage unit;
the equivalent available coefficient index of the unit is calculated by adopting the following formula:
the available hours are defined as the hours of the pumped storage unit in the available and standby states; the counting time hours are defined as given time hours which need to be selected when the pumped storage unit is in a use state;
calculating the electricity generation utilization hours of the conventional unit by adopting the following formula:
calculating the pumping utilization hours of the pumping and storing unit by adopting the following formula:
the success rate of the power generation starting of the pump storage unit is defined as the probability of the successful starting of the pump storage unit according to the specification within the investigation time;
the economic benefit indexes comprise 3 secondary indexes including internal yield, investment recovery period and unit investment amount;
the internal rate of return is calculated using the following equation:
wherein CI is cash inflow, including sales revenue, fixed asset recovery remaining value and mobile capital recovery; CO is cash outflow, including fixed asset investment, mobile capital, operating cost, sales tax fund addition and the like; (CI-CO) t Net cash flow for total investment in year t; n is a calculation period; FIRR is internal rate of return;
the recovery period of investment is calculated using the following equation:
in the formula P t The investment recovery period;
the environmental benefit indexes comprise environmental protection coal saving benefits, environmental management benefits and pollution emission reduction benefits, and the indexes are 3 secondary indexes in total;
the environmental protection and coal saving benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by the reduced coal usage of the hybrid pumped storage power station by replacing the conventional thermal power unit to operate;
the environmental management benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by the beneficial influence on the watershed and the surrounding environment after the construction of the hybrid pumped storage power station is completed;
pollution emission reduction benefits are defined as environmental protection benefits generated by using clean energy in the operation process of the hybrid pumped storage power station and reducing the emission of pollution gas.
Step S3, determining the weight value of each evaluation index by using an order relation analysis method according to the comprehensive evaluation index system established in step S2, specifically including the following steps:
A. under the evaluation standard, if the index x is evaluated i Is more important than the evaluation index x j Then is marked as x i ＞x j (ii) a For the comprehensive index system established in the step S2, the importance degrees of all indexes in the system are sorted to obtain the sorted indexes
Wherein
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the ith evaluation index is sorted according to the importance degree;
B. based on the triangular fuzzy number, calculating to obtain the relative importance degree ratio r of each evaluation index k ；
C. Obtaining the relative importance degree ratio r according to the step B k Calculating the weight w of each evaluation index m Is composed of
B, calculating to obtain the relative importance degree ratio r of each evaluation index based on the triangular fuzzy number k The method specifically comprises the following steps:
b-1, determining the importance interval:
determining the importance degree interval of each index; wherein the lower boundary of the interval is conservative value C k The interval upper bound is an optimistic value O k And C is k ＜O k ，C k ∈[0,10]，O k ∈[0,10]；
B-2. Calculating the triangular fuzzy number:
respectively calculating to obtain a relative importance degree ratio r according to the conservative value and the optimistic value of each index obtained in the step B-1 k Conservative triangular fuzzy number of
And optimistic triangular blur number
Is composed of
Wherein n represents that a total of n experts evaluate the evaluation index,
is the ratio r of the x-th expert to the relative importance degree k The score of the conservative value of (a) is,
is the ratio r of the x-th expert to the relative importance degree k An optimistic score of;
by each relative importance ratio r k The two types of triangular fuzzy numbers represent and judge the relative importance degree of each index;
b-3, calculating importance consistency:
conservative triangular fuzzy number obtained according to the step B-2
And optimistic triangular blur number
And (3) verifying the consistency of the expert evaluation results:
if it is
Then it represents the ratio of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance r k The judgment is consistent;
if it is
Further judging the consistency of the expert evaluation results:
calculating the gray value range Z k And M k The relationship of (c): if Z is k ≤M k Then, it represents the ratio r of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k The judgment is consistent; if it isZ k ＞M k Then, it represents the ratio r of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k If the judgment is inconsistent, the evaluation result is invalid; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
step S4, performing comprehensive evaluation on the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the comprehensive evaluation index system obtained in step S2 and the weighted values of the evaluation indexes obtained in step S3, and specifically including the following steps:
a. determining factor discourse domain and comment grade:
n evaluation indices are represented by U = (U) 1 ,u 2 ,…,u n ) (ii) a The comment domain of the index is represented by the set v, v = (v) 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ,v 4 ,v 5 ) Wherein v is 1 Is excellent, v 2 Is good, v 3 Is general, v 4 Is poor, v 5 Is a difference;
for the index u i Index u i The membership degree for each evaluation level is r = (r) 1 ,r 2 ,r 3 ,r 4 ,r 5 ) (ii) a r is u i Of the membership degree vector r i Has a value range of [0,1 ]]And is
b. Determining a membership function and a fuzzy relation matrix R:
if the evaluation index is a quantitative index, determining a membership function by adopting a fuzzy distribution method; if the evaluation index is a qualitative index, determining a membership function by adopting a fuzzy statistical method;
the fuzzy relation matrix R of the evaluation object is
Wherein, the ith row and the jth column of elements R in the fuzzy relation matrix R ij Index u representing evaluation target i To v is to v j Membership of the rank fuzzy subset;
c. the comprehensive evaluation result B of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is obtained by adopting the following calculation formula i ：
In the formula
Is a fuzzy synthesis operator.
The fuzzy synthesis operator specifically adopts
As a fuzzy synthesis operator.
The invention also discloses a system for realizing the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped storage power station, which specifically comprises a data acquisition module, an evaluation system establishment module, a weight value calculation module and a comprehensive evaluation calculation module; the data acquisition module, the evaluation system establishment module, the weight value calculation module and the comprehensive evaluation calculation module are sequentially connected in series; the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data information of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated and uploading the data to the evaluation system establishment module; the evaluation system establishing module is used for establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the received data and uploading the data to the weight value calculating module; the weighted value calculating module is used for determining weighted values of all evaluation indexes by adopting an order relation analysis method according to the received data and uploading the data to the comprehensive evaluation calculating module; and the comprehensive evaluation calculation module is used for comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the received data.
The comprehensive evaluation method and the comprehensive evaluation system for the hybrid pumped storage power station adopt an order relation analysis method to confirm index weight, adopt a fuzzy evaluation method to carry out validity judgment on evaluation opinions, and adopt an objective and scientific method to comprehensively calculate a weight result; therefore, the method can reflect the condition of index benefits of all aspects of the power station, improves the effectiveness of the evaluation result, and has high reliability, good accuracy and objective science.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of the system according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention: the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped storage power station provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring data information of a hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated;
s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the data information obtained in the step S1; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the first-level indexes of the comprehensive evaluation index system comprise a functional benefit index, an economic benefit index and an environmental benefit index;
the functional benefit indexes comprise 4 secondary indexes including unit equivalent availability coefficients, the number of hours of electricity generation and utilization of a conventional unit, the number of hours of water pumping and utilization of a storage unit and the success rate of electricity generation and starting of the storage unit;
calculating the equivalent available coefficient index of the unit by adopting the following formula; the equivalent availability coefficient of the unit is the proportion of the available hours of the unit in the counting period to the hours in the counting period, and represents the operation stability of the power station;
the available hours are defined as the hours of the pumped storage unit in the available and standby states; the counting time hours are defined as given time hours which need to be selected when the pumped storage unit is in a use state;
calculating the number of hours of electricity generation and utilization of a conventional unit by adopting the following formula; the hours of generating operation of the power station unit is an index reflecting the time utilization level of the unit; the method comprises the following steps that the number of electricity generation utilization hours refers to the number of operation hours of average power generation equipment capacity under a full-load operation condition in a certain period, and a hybrid pumped storage power station adopts an operation mode that a pumped storage unit pumps water and a conventional hydroelectric generating unit outputs power, so that the electricity generation utilization hours of the conventional hydroelectric generating unit can be considered to reflect the electricity generation output power benefit;
calculating the pumping utilization hours of the pumping and storage unit by adopting the following formula; the pumping utilization hours of the unit refer to the running hours of the average pumping equipment capacity under the full-load running condition in a certain period; because the hybrid pumped storage power station is transformed by adding pumping equipment to ensure that the power station obtains adjusting capacity, the power grid adjusting benefit of the power station can be reflected by the pumping utilization hours of the units;
the power generation starting success rate of the pumping unit is defined as the probability that the pumping unit is successfully started according to the specification within the investigation time; the pumping storage unit can change the starting and stopping state along with the requirement so as to complete tasks such as phase modulation, frequency modulation and emergency standby of a power grid; the unit starting success rate can reflect the reliability of the adjustment and standby functions of the pumped storage unit;
the economic benefit indexes comprise 3 secondary indexes including internal yield, investment recovery period and unit investment amount;
the internal rate of return is calculated using the following equation:
wherein CI is cash inflow, including sales revenue, fixed asset recovery remaining value and mobile capital recovery; CO is the cash output including fixed capital investment, liquidated capital, operating costs and sales taxesGold annex, and the like; (CI-CO) t Net cash flow for total investment in year t; n is a calculation period; FIRR is internal rate of return;
the investment recovery period is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula P t The investment recovery period;
the environmental benefit indexes comprise environmental protection coal saving benefits, environmental management benefits and pollution emission reduction benefits, and the indexes are 3 secondary indexes in total;
the environmental protection and coal saving benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by the reduced coal use of the hybrid pumped storage power station by replacing the conventional thermal power generating unit to operate;
the environmental management benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by the beneficial influence on the watershed and the surrounding environment after the construction of the hybrid pumped storage power station is completed;
the pollution emission reduction benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by using clean energy in the operation process of the hybrid pumped storage power station and reducing the emission of pollution gas;
s3, determining the weight value of each evaluation index by adopting an order relation analysis method according to the comprehensive evaluation index system established in the step S2; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
A. under the evaluation standard, if the evaluation index x i Is more important than the evaluation index x j Then is marked as x i ＞x j (ii) a For the comprehensive index system established in the step S2, the importance degrees of all indexes in the system are sorted to obtain the sorted indexes
Wherein
Wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
the ith evaluation index is sorted according to the importance degree;
B. based on the triangular fuzzy number, calculating to obtain the relative importance degree ratio r of each evaluation index k (ii) a The method specifically comprises the following steps:
b-1, determining the importance interval:
determining an importance degree interval of each index; wherein the lower boundary of the interval is conservative value C k The interval upper bound is an optimistic value O k And C is k ＜O k ，C k ∈[0,10]，O k ∈[0,10]；
B-2. Calculating the triangular fuzzy number:
respectively calculating to obtain a relative importance degree ratio r according to the conservative value and the optimistic value of each index obtained in the step B-1 k Conservative triangular fuzzy number of
And optimistic triangular blur number
Is composed of
Wherein n represents that a total of n experts evaluate the evaluation index,
is the ratio r of the x-th expert to the relative importance degree k The score of the conservative value of (a) is,
is the ratio r of the x-th expert to the relative importance degree k An optimistic score of;
by each relative importance ratio r k The two types of triangular fuzzy numbers of the system represent and judge the relative importance degree among all indexes;
b-3, calculating the importance consistency:
conservative triangular fuzzy number obtained according to the step B-2
And optimistic triangular blur number
And (3) verifying the consistency of the expert evaluation results:
if it is
Then it represents the ratio of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance r k The judgment is consistent;
if it is
Further judging the consistency of the expert evaluation results:
calculating the Gray value Range Z k And M k The relationship of (c): if Z is k ≤M k Then it represents the ratio r of relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k The judgment is consistent; if Z is k ＞M k Then it represents the ratio r of relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k The judgment is inconsistent, and the evaluation result is invalid; wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
C. obtaining the relative importance degree ratio r according to the step B k Calculating the weight w of each evaluation index m Is composed of
S4, according to the comprehensive evaluation index system obtained in the step S2 and the weight values of the evaluation indexes obtained in the step S3, performing comprehensive evaluation on the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
a. determining factor domain and comment level:
when comprehensively evaluating a selected evaluation object, firstly, comprehensively determining a factor domain of the evaluation object from multiple angles and a system, namely an evaluation index set; n evaluation indices are represented by U = (U) 1 ,u 2 ,…,u n ) (ii) a The comment domain of the index is represented by the set v, v = (v) 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ,v 4 ,v 5 ) Wherein v is 1 Is excellent, v 2 Is good, v 3 Is general, v 4 Is poor, v 5 Is a difference;
for the index u i Index u i The membership degree for each evaluation level is r = (r) 1 ,r 2 ,r 3 ,r 4 ,r 5 ) (ii) a r is u i Of the membership degree vector r i Has a value range of [0,1 ]]And is provided with
b. Determining a membership function and a fuzzy relation matrix R:
if the evaluation index is a quantitative index, determining a membership function by adopting a fuzzy distribution method; if the evaluation index is a qualitative index, determining a membership function by adopting a fuzzy statistical method;
in specific implementation, the essence of the fuzzy distribution method is based on quantitative data of indexes, and the quantitative data is converted into the membership degree of an evaluation grade through a fuzzy distribution function (trapezoid, rectangle, parabola and the like); the fuzzy distribution function is selected based on the type of the indexes, a half-raising trapezoidal function is adopted for positive indexes (the index numerical value is larger, the benefit is better), and a half-lowering trapezoidal function is adopted for negative indexes (the index numerical value is larger, the benefit is worse); the middle index indicates that the index is in a reasonable interval, the larger or smaller index is unfavorable, and triangular distribution is adopted;
the fuzzy statistical method is a conventional method for determining index membership degree through a fuzzy statistical experiment, and comprises the following specific steps of:
please give an index u by a group of experts according to their own experience and knowledge of the evaluation object i Comment level v of j ；
Statistics ofRecording the determination index u as a result of the investigation i Comment level v of j The number of people;
dividing the number of people of each grade by the total number of experts to obtain an index u i For comment level v j Degree of membership of;
counting membership degree vectors of all indexes to obtain a fuzzy relation matrix;
the fuzzy relation matrix R of the evaluation object is
Wherein, the ith row and the jth column of elements R in the fuzzy relation matrix R ij Index u representing evaluation target i To v is to v j Membership of the rank fuzzy subset;
c. obtaining a comprehensive evaluation result B of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting the following calculation formula i ：
In the formula
For fuzzy synthesis operator, the concrete implementation can adopt
As a fuzzy synthesis operator.
The process of the invention is further illustrated below with reference to one example:
the conventional hydroelectric generating set has 1500MW, the pumped storage set has 300MW, the annual pumped power consumption is 6.24 hundred million kWh, and the annual total power generation of the power station is 25.18 hundred million kWh. The total investment of pumped storage reconstruction engineering is 79969 ten thousand yuan.
A reasonable comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station is established and is shown in the following table 1:
TABLE 1 pumped storage power station comprehensive benefit evaluation index system
The comprehensive evaluation index weight was determined by improved order relation analysis, as shown in table 2 below:
table 2 evaluation index weight schematic table
Establishing a model by a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and comprehensively and objectively analyzing the comprehensive benefits of the hybrid pumped storage power station;
firstly, the quantitative index C is measured 1 To C 8 The quantitative calculation processing is performed to obtain quantitative index quantitative values as shown in table 3:
TABLE 3 quantitative index quantitative value schematic table
| Index (es) | C 1 /％ | C 2 /h | C 3 /h | C 4 /％ |
| Quantized value | 91.49 | 1634 | 2080.1 | 99.36 |
| Index (es) | C 5 /％ | C 6 Year after year | C 7 One element | C 8 /t |
| Quantized value | 11.35 | 10.88 | 2665.6 | 670890 |
And then calculating a fuzzy relation matrix of three secondary indexes, namely a functional benefit index, an economic benefit index and an environmental benefit index according to the steps of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, wherein the result is as follows:
wherein the qualitative index C 9 、C 10 The membership degree vector of (2) is determined by a fuzzy statistical method, and the membership degree vectors of the rest quantitative indexes are determined by a fuzzy distribution method. After fuzzy synthesis processing is carried out on the fuzzy relation matrixes of the three secondary indexes through a weighted average method, a comprehensive evaluation fuzzy relation matrix can be obtained, and finally, a hybrid pumped storage comprehensive evaluation vector can be obtained through calculation:
A＝[0.406 0.190 0.179 0.123 0.102]
as can be seen from the evaluation index weights in the table 2, the weight proportion of the functional benefit index among the three secondary indexes is the highest, namely 42.27%, which is 15.26% higher than the weight proportion of the financial benefit index and 11.55% higher than the weight proportion of the environmental benefit index, and the weight calculation result accords with the benefit positioning because the main function of the hybrid pumped storage power station is to exert the electric quantity supply and auxiliary regulation functions for the power grid. And performing weighting calculation according to the comprehensive evaluation vector to obtain a good overall comprehensive evaluation result of the power station, and proving that the overall benefit of the power station achieves the effect expectation. The method has excellent functional benefits and general financial benefits, and shows that the power station needs to fully exert the advantages of the regulating capacity and the capacity benefits of the self unit in the working operation of the pumped storage engineering module, and further optimization and promotion are carried out in the aspect of economic benefits.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the functional modules of the system of the present invention: the invention also discloses a system for realizing the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped storage power station, which specifically comprises a data acquisition module, an evaluation system establishment module, a weight value calculation module and a comprehensive evaluation calculation module; the data acquisition module, the evaluation system establishment module, the weight value calculation module and the comprehensive evaluation calculation module are sequentially connected in series; the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data information of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated and uploading the data to the evaluation system establishment module; the evaluation system establishing module is used for establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the received data and uploading the data to the weight value calculating module; the weighted value calculating module is used for determining weighted values of all evaluation indexes by adopting an order relation analysis method according to the received data and uploading the data to the comprehensive evaluation calculating module; and the comprehensive evaluation calculation module is used for comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the received data.
Claims (7)
1. A comprehensive evaluation method of a hybrid pumped storage power station comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring data information of a hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated;
s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the data information obtained in the step S1;
s3, determining the weight value of each evaluation index by adopting an order relation analysis method according to the comprehensive evaluation index system established in the step S2;
and S4, according to the comprehensive evaluation index system obtained in the step S2 and the weight values of the evaluation indexes obtained in the step S3, comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped-storage power station according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 of establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped-storage power station to be evaluated according to the data information obtained in the step S1 specifically comprises the steps of:
the first-level indexes of the comprehensive evaluation index system comprise a functional benefit index, an economic benefit index and an environmental benefit index;
the functional benefit indexes comprise 4 secondary indexes including unit equivalent availability coefficients, the number of hours of electricity generation and utilization of a conventional unit, the number of hours of water pumping and utilization of a storage unit and the success rate of electricity generation and starting of the storage unit;
calculating the equivalent available coefficient index of the unit by adopting the following formula:
wherein the available hours is defined as the hours of the pumped-storage unit in the available and standby states; the counting time hours are defined as given time hours which need to be selected when the pumped storage unit is in a use state;
calculating the electricity generation utilization hours of the conventional unit by adopting the following formula:
calculating the pumping utilization hours of the pumping and storing unit by adopting the following formula:
the power generation starting success rate of the pumping unit is defined as the probability that the pumping unit is successfully started according to the specification within the investigation time;
the economic benefit indexes comprise 3 secondary indexes including internal yield, investment recovery period and unit investment amount;
the internal rate of return is calculated using the following equation:
wherein CI is cash inflow, including sales revenue, fixed asset recovery remaining value and mobile capital recovery; CO is cash outflow, including fixed asset investment, mobile capital, operating cost, sales tax fund addition and the like; (CI-CO) t Net cash flow for total investment in year t; n is a calculation period; FIRR is internal yield;
the investment recovery period is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula P t The investment recovery period;
the environmental benefit indexes comprise environmental protection coal saving benefits, environmental management benefits and pollution emission reduction benefits, and the indexes are 3 secondary indexes in total;
the environmental protection and coal saving benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by the reduced coal usage of the hybrid pumped storage power station by replacing the conventional thermal power unit to operate;
the environmental management benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by the beneficial influence on the watershed and the surrounding environment after the construction of the hybrid pumped storage power station is completed;
the pollution emission reduction benefit is defined as the environmental protection benefit generated by using clean energy in the operation process of the hybrid pumped storage power station and reducing the emission of pollution gas.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method of a hybrid pumped-storage power station of claim 2, wherein the step S3 of determining the weight value of each evaluation index according to the comprehensive evaluation index system established in the step S2 by using an order relation analysis method specifically comprises the steps of:
A. under the evaluation standard, if the index x is evaluated i Is more important than the evaluation index x j Then is marked as x i ＞x j (ii) a For the comprehensive index system established in the step S2, the importance degrees of all indexes in the system are sequenced to obtain the sequenced indexes
Wherein
Wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
the ith evaluation index is sorted according to the importance degree;
B. based on the triangular fuzzy number, calculating to obtain the relative importance degree ratio r of each evaluation index k ；
C. The relative importance ratio r obtained according to step B k Calculating the weight w of each evaluation index m Is composed of
4. The comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped-storage power station of claim 3 wherein the relative importance ratio r of each evaluation index is calculated based on the triangular fuzzy number in step B k The method specifically comprises the following steps:
b-1, determining the importance interval:
determining an importance degree interval of each index; wherein the lower boundary of the interval is conservative value C k The interval upper bound is an optimistic value O k And C is k ＜O k ，C k ∈[0,10]，O k ∈[0,10]；
B-2, calculating a triangular fuzzy number:
respectively calculating to obtain a relative importance degree ratio r according to the conservative value and the optimistic value of each index obtained in the step B-1 k Conservative triangular fuzzy number of
And optimistic triangular blur number
Is composed of
Wherein n represents that a total of n experts evaluate the evaluation index,
is the ratio r of the x-th expert to the relative importance degree k The score of the conservative value of (a) is,
is the ratio r of the x-th expert to the relative importance degree k An optimistic score of;
by each relative importance ratio r k Two of (1)The class triangle fuzzy number is used for representing and judging the relative importance degree among all indexes;
b-3, calculating importance consistency:
conservative triangular fuzzy number obtained according to the step B-2
And optimistic triangular blur number
And (3) verifying the consistency of the evaluation result of the expert:
if it is
It indicates the ratio r of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k The judgment is consistent;
if it is
Further judging the consistency of the expert evaluation results:
calculating the gray value range Z k And M k The relationship of (c): if Z is k ≤M k Then, it represents the ratio r of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k The judgment is consistent; if Z is k ＞M k Then, it represents the ratio r of the relative importance of the expert to the relative importance k If the judgment is inconsistent, the evaluation result is invalid; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
5. the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped-storage power station according to claim 4, wherein the step S4 of comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped-storage power station to be evaluated by a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the comprehensive evaluation index system obtained in the step S2 and the weight values of the evaluation indexes obtained in the step S3 specifically comprises the following steps:
a. determining factor discourse domain and comment grade:
n evaluation indices are represented by U = (U) 1 ,u 2 ,…,u n ) (ii) a The comment domain of the index is represented by a set v, v = (v) 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ,v 4 ,v 5 ) Wherein v is 1 Is excellent, v 2 Is good, v 3 Is general, v 4 Is poor, v 5 Is a difference;
for the index u i Index u i The membership degree for each evaluation level is r = (r) 1 ,r 2 ,r 3 ,r 4 ,r 5 ) (ii) a r is u i Degree of membership vector r i Has a value range of [0,1 ]]And is provided with
b. Determining a membership function and a fuzzy relation matrix R:
if the evaluation index is a quantitative index, determining a membership function by adopting a fuzzy distribution method; if the evaluation index is a qualitative index, determining a membership function by adopting a fuzzy statistical method;
the fuzzy relation matrix R of the evaluation object is
Wherein, the ith row and the jth column element R in the fuzzy relation matrix R ij Index u representing evaluation target i To v is to v j Membership of the rank fuzzy subset;
c. the comprehensive evaluation result B of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is obtained by adopting the following calculation formula i ：
In the formula
Is a fuzzy synthesis operator.
6. The method of claim 5 wherein the fuzzy synthesis operator is implemented using
As a fuzzy synthesis operator.
7. A system for realizing the comprehensive evaluation method of the hybrid pumped-storage power station of any one of claims 1 to 6, which is characterized by comprising a data acquisition module, an evaluation system establishment module, a weight value calculation module and a comprehensive evaluation calculation module; the data acquisition module, the evaluation system establishment module, the weight value calculation module and the comprehensive evaluation calculation module are sequentially connected in series; the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data information of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated and uploading the data to the evaluation system establishment module; the evaluation system establishing module is used for establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated according to the received data and uploading the data to the weight value calculating module; the weighted value calculating module is used for determining weighted values of all evaluation indexes by adopting an order relation analysis method according to the received data and uploading the data to the comprehensive evaluation calculating module; and the comprehensive evaluation calculation module is used for comprehensively evaluating the hybrid pumped storage power station to be evaluated by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the received data.
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