CN115329284A - Distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method and system based on adjacent time period parameters - Google Patents
Distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method and system based on adjacent time period parameters Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method and a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation system based on adjacent time period parameters, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical lightning activity intensity and historical lightning activity frequency in a past time period in a target area, and acquiring predicted lightning activity intensity and lightning activity frequency in a next time period according to the historical lightning activity intensity; calculating the total lightning receiving width and the lightning guiding area in the target area according to the predicted lightning activity intensity; calculating the lightning stroke probability of the distribution line in the target area and the trip probability after being struck by lightning; and calculating the probability of lightning trip of the distribution line in the area of the lightning area in the future period according to the predicted lightning activity frequency, the lightning stroke probability and the trip probability after being struck by lightning. According to the method, the lightning parameters of adjacent time are calculated, so that short-time prediction is realized, and the accuracy of prediction is improved; influence brought by induction lightning strike is considered in the lightning strike category, so that the method is more suitable for calculating the lightning strike trip probability of the distribution line.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of distribution network lightning protection, in particular to a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method based on adjacent time period parameters.
Background
With the increasing of lightning weather, the lightning protection of the power distribution network becomes more and more important. The lightning protection of the power distribution network is based on the premise that the lightning trip-out probability of the line is predicted, and accurate prediction is beneficial to follow-up adoption of a targeted regulation and control means. If the lightning trip-out probability can be predicted and calculated by adopting a simpler and more convenient method, the scheduling personnel can find the weak point of the distribution line in the lightning weather in time, and take corresponding measures aiming at the specific line, thereby achieving the purpose of reducing the lightning harm.
At present, in the aspect of lightning protection of a power distribution network, the lightning trip-out rate is researched based on previous long-time data, and the lightning trip-out rate is researched for a plurality of power transmission networks, wherein the lightning trip-out probability is mainly researched based on the possibility that a line is struck by lightning and the possibility of tripping after the lightning stroke, the influence of induced lightning on the tripping of the line is ignored, and the short-time lightning trip-out probability prediction of the power distribution line is researched less. With the development of the intelligent power distribution network and the proposal of a dynamic lightning protection concept, the prediction of the lightning trip probability of the power distribution network is more significant. The distribution network is used as the last link for connecting users, once the distribution network is tripped by lightning, the load is inevitably influenced, especially for industrial and enterprise users, a large amount of economic loss is brought after power failure, and the power supply reliability of the distribution network is reduced.
Therefore, in the prior art, the calculation of the lightning trip-out rate can only be used for evaluating a long-time lightning risk, and the short-time prediction of the lightning trip-out probability cannot be realized at the next moment.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method based on adjacent time period parameters, which can be used for predicting the lightning trip probability of the distribution line at the next moment in a short time by combining the parameters in the adjacent time periods of lightning and the influence of induced lightning.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme.
The invention provides a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method based on adjacent time period parameters, which comprises the following steps of:
step 1, acquiring past time period in target area
Historical lightning activity intensity and historical lightning activity frequency in the lightning protection device, and acquiring the next time period according to the historical lightning activity intensity and the historical lightning activity frequency
Internally predicted intensity and frequency of lightning activity;
step 2, calculating the total lightning receiving width and the lightning guiding area in the target area according to the predicted lightning activity intensity;
step 3, calculating the lightning stroke probability of the distribution line in the target area and the trip probability after being struck by lightning;
step 4, calculating the future according to the lightning stroke probability in the distribution line and the trip probability after being struck by lightning
Probability of distribution line lightning trip-out in the area of the lightning induction area in the time period.
Preferably, the step 1 further comprises:
step 1-1, obtaining the current time
Before one
Historical lightning activity intensity in the period of time, and obtaining the intensity of the following lightning activity according to the historical lightning activity intensity
Intensity of lightning activity over a period of time;
step 1-2, obtaining the current time
Before one
Historical lightning activity frequency in the period of time, and obtaining the following lightning activity frequency according to the historical lightning activity frequency
Frequency of lightning activity over a period of time.
Preferably, the step 1-1 further comprises:
indicating the intensity of lightning activity by the magnitude of lightning current in the target area, over a period of time in the past
In the method, the target area is monitored by the lightning monitoring systemRespectively, the maximum and minimum lightning current amplitudes are
Predicting the next time period of the target area from the current time T
Amplitude of lightning currentIThe range should satisfy:
preferably, the step 1-2 further comprises:
indicating the frequency of lightning activity by the number of landings in the target area, over the past period of time
In the method, the number of lightning falling times of the target area monitored by the lightning monitoring system is
The number of landmine falls per unit time is
Predicting a next time period from the current time T
Number of landings
Satisfies the following conditions:
preferably, the step 2 further comprises:
step 2-1, calculating the direct lightning strike width of a distribution line in a target area;
step 2-2, calculating the equivalent lightning receiving width of the induction lightning of the distribution line in the target area;
step 2-3, calculating the total lightning receiving width according to the direct lightning receiving width and the inductive lightning equivalent lightning receiving width of the distribution line;
and 2-4, calculating the area of the lightning guiding area according to the total lightning receiving width.
Preferably, in the step 2-1, the calculation of the direct lightning strike acceptance width of the distribution line further includes:
and calculating the impact distance of the thunder to the wire according to the following calculation formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
in order to realize the impact distance of the lightning on the conducting wire,
the measurement units are m for the height of the tower,
the amplitude of the lightning current, namely the intensity of the lightning activity predicted in the step 1, is represented by kA;
calculating the strike distance of the lightning to the ground according to the strike distance of the lightning to the conducting wire
The calculation formula is:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the unit of the distance between the lightning and the ground is m;
according to the distance of lightning striking the conductor
And the distance of lightning striking the ground
Calculating the direct lightning strike lightning receiving width of the distribution line according to the following calculation formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is composed ofKThe point is the width of the direct lightning strike,
the lightning receiving width of the direct lightning strike is set.
Preferably, the step 2-2 further comprises:
step 2-2-1, calculating critical current of demarcation point M of impact distance of lightning to the conducting wire
；
Critical current at boundary point M
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
step 2-2-2, calculating the nearest and farthest lightning falling positions of the induced lightning stroke
、
Judging whether the induced lightning stroke lightning width exists or not;
wherein the nearest lightning strike location for an induced lightning strike
: when the induced lightning current is satisfied
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
(ii) a When the induced lightning current is satisfied
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
；
furthest lightning strike location for induced lightning strikes
The calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the unit is kV, which is 50% of the discharge voltage of the lightning impulse of the insulator;
step 2-2-3, if the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width exists, calculating the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width, and if not, setting the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width to be 0;
wherein when
>
Calculating the induced lightning equivalent lightning receiving width of the circuit
The calculation formula is as follows:
preferably, in the step 2-3, the total lightning strike width
The calculation formula of (A) is as follows:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
in order to directly strike the lightning receiving width of the lightning,
the equivalent lightning receiving width of the inductive lightning is obtained.
Preferably, in step 2-4, the area of the lightning inducing region is calculated as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the length of the distribution line, in km,
is the area of the lightning area of the line, and has the unit of km 2 。
Preferably, the step 3 further comprises:
step 3-1, calculating the lightning stroke probability of the distribution line in the target area
；
Step 3-2, calculating the tripping probability of the distribution line in the target area after being struck by lightning
。
Preferably, in the step 3-1, the probability of lightning stroke
Is calculated as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the area of the lightning-leading area of the circuit,
is the total area of the target region in
。
Preferably, in the step 3-2, the probability of tripping after being struck by lightning
The calculation formula of (c) is:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
、
、
respectively the direct lightning strike rate, the striking rod rate and the induced lightning strike rate,
、
and
respectively shows flashover rates corresponding to lightning counterattack, lightning direct attack lines and induced lightning overvoltage caused by lightning striking the tower,
the arc rate is established.
Preferably, the step 4 further comprises:
calculating the probability of line lightning trip caused by a certain lightning strike
The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
representing the probability of lightning strikes for distribution lines within the target area,
representing the trip probability of the distribution line in the target area after being struck by lightning;
in the future period
Probability of inter-line lightning trip
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for a past time period
In the method, the lightning monitoring system monitors the number of lightning strikes in a target area,
for the length of the period of time that has elapsed,
is the calculated future slot length.
The invention also provides a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation system based on adjacent time period parameters, which comprises the following steps: the lightning protection device comprises a data acquisition module, a lightning intensity calculation module, a lightning stroke region calculation module and a lightning stroke tripping probability calculation module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring lightning activity intensity and lightning activity frequency data of the target area in a previous time period of the current moment;
the lightning intensity calculating module is used for calculating the intensity and the lightning activity frequency of lightning activity of the target area in the next period of the current moment;
the lightning stroke area calculation module is used for calculating the total lightning receiving width and the lightning triggering area of the target area in the next period of the current moment;
and the lightning trip probability calculation module is used for calculating the lightning trip probability of the distribution line of the target area in the next time period at the current moment.
The invention also provides a terminal, which comprises a processor and a storage medium; the storage medium is used for storing instructions;
the processor is used for operating according to the instruction to execute the steps of the distribution line lightning stroke trip probability calculation method based on the adjacent time interval parameters.
The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for calculating a distribution line lightning trip probability based on adjacent time period parameters.
Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that on the premise that the parameters in the adjacent time periods of lightning have correlation, the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line at the next moment is calculated by adopting the lightning parameters in the adjacent time period in the previous period, so that the purpose of short-time prediction is achieved, and the prediction accuracy is improved; meanwhile, influence caused by induction lightning stroke is considered in the lightning stroke category, so that the method is more suitable for calculating the lightning stroke tripping probability of the distribution line.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic overall flow chart of a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method considering similarity of lightning parameters in adjacent time intervals according to the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an electrical geometric model of a lightning strike distribution line in the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of a lightning receptor region according to the invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the overall structure of the power distribution line lightning trip probability calculation system considering the similarity of lightning parameters in adjacent time intervals.
Detailed Description
The present application is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereby.
As shown in fig. 1, the invention provides a distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method considering lightning parameter similarity in adjacent time periods, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, setting the current time point as
Obtaining the past in the target area
Historical lightning activity intensity and historical lightning activity frequency in the time period, and acquiring the next time period according to the historical lightning activity intensity and the historical lightning activity frequency
An internally predicted intensity and frequency of lightning activity;
specifically, step 1 further comprises:
step 1-1, obtaining the current time
Before one
Historical lightning activity intensity in the period of time, and obtaining the intensity of the following lightning activity according to the historical lightning activity intensity
Intensity of lightning activity over a period of time;
in this embodiment, the magnitude of lightning current in the target area is used to represent the intensity of lightning activity. Considering the similarity of lightning activities in a short time, using the last period of the current time T
The maximum value and the minimum value of the internal lightning current amplitude are used for representing the next time period
Maximum and minimum values of the internal lightning current amplitude.
It can be understood that the shorter the time span, the more accurate the predicted result, and the next time period in the present invention
The length of (b) can be 15min, 30min, 60min.
In particular, in the past time period
In the method, the maximum and minimum lightning current amplitudes monitored by the lightning monitoring system in a target area are respectively
Then, the next time period of the target area is predicted from the current time T
Lightning current amplitude ofIThe range should satisfy:
next period of acquisition
The internal predicted lightning activity intensity is the next time period of the target area
Amplitude of lightning currentIA range value.
Step 1-2, obtaining the current time
Before one
Historical lightning activity frequency in the period of time, and obtaining the following lightning activity frequency according to the historical lightning activity frequency
Frequency of lightning activity over a period of time;
in the embodiment, the frequency of lightning activities is represented by the number of landings in the target area. Using the last period of the current time T
The number of landings in the period of time
Number of landmine drops in.
In particular, in the past time period
In the method, the number of lightning falling times of the target area monitored by the lightning monitoring system is
Then the number of landings per unit time is
Predicting a next time period from the current time T
Number of landings
It should satisfy:
in addition, the lightning trip-out probability in the target interval is calculated according to the historical lightning activity data of the adjacent previous time period, namely the lightning activity existing in the target interval in the previous time period is required to be obtained, if the lightning activity does not exist in the previous time period of the target area, the relevant parameters of the frequency of the lightning activity in the adjacent area can be obtained, and if the lightning activity does not exist in the adjacent area, the follow-up calculation cannot be carried out.
Step 2, calculating the total lightning receiving width in the target area according to the predicted lightning activity intensity, and calculating the area of the lightning guiding area based on the lightning receiving width;
as shown in fig. 2, which is a schematic diagram of an electrical geometric model of a lightning distribution line, a lightning conductor is not usually erected along the whole line in a power distribution network, so that direct lightning strike and inductive lightning strike need to be considered simultaneously in the electrical geometric model of the lightning distribution line in a target area; induced lightning is an important lightning strike type causing lightning strike faults of the power distribution network, and therefore, the total lightning strike width in the target area comprises the lightning strike width of direct lightning strikes and the lightning strike width of induced lightning.
Specifically, step 2 further includes:
step 2-1, calculating the direct lightning strike width of a distribution line in a target area;
the direct lightning is directly struck to thunder and lightning area in receiving the thunder width, in case the thunder falls into direct lightning thunder and lightning area, because distribution lines's thunder attraction effect, can regard this time to fall the thunder and hit the distribution lines.
The calculation of the direct lightning strike lightning receiving width of the distribution line further comprises the following steps:
calculating the attack distance of the lightning to the wire, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
in order to realize the impact distance of the lightning on the conducting wire,
the measurement units are m for the height of the tower,
is the intensity of the lightning activity predicted in step 1, in kA.
Calculating the strike distance of the lightning to the ground according to the strike distance of the lightning to the lead
The calculation formula is:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the unit is m, which is the distance between the lightning and the ground.
Preferably, because
The height of the tower, therefore, the invention
。
It will be appreciated that, since the intensity of the lightning activity predicted in step 1 is a range of values, the resulting lightning strike distance to the conductor is
And the distance of lightning striking the ground
Also numerical ranges.
According to the distance of lightning striking the conductor
And the distance of lightning striking the ground
Calculating the direct lightning strike lightning receiving width of the distribution line according to the following calculation formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is half of the width of the direct lightning, and is combined with the lightning receiving device in figure 2KThe abscissa of the point is the coordinate of the point,Kthe point is the dividing point of the direct lightning and the inductive lightning,
the lightning receiving width of the direct lightning strike is set.
Obtained in the invention
、
The value is a specific value, and is determined according to the lightning striking distance to the conductor
And the distance of lightning striking the ground
As the maximum value calculated from the range value of
、
The value of (c).
2-2, calculating the equivalent lightning receiving width of the induction lightning of the distribution lines in the target area;
wherein, step 2-2 also includes:
step 2-2-1, calculating critical current of demarcation point M of impact distance of lightning to the conducting wire
；
For inductive lightning strike width, as shown in figure 2,
、
respectively the past time period
The nearest and farthest lightning falling positions of the internal induction lightning strike are defined as the boundary point where the lightning-to-lightning receiving width is equal to the lightning-to-conductor striking distance, and the lightning receiving width of the direct lightning is defined as the distance between the lightning and the conductor before the M pointAnd the lightning stroke of the line after the M point is less than the stroke of the lightning to the conducting wire.
Critical current at boundary point M
The calculation formula of (c) is as follows:
step 2-2-2, calculating the nearest lightning falling position of the induced lightning stroke
And the furthest mine-falling position
Judging whether the induced lightning stroke lightning width exists or not;
for the nearest lightning down position
: obtaining induced lightning current according to relevant parameters of insulator
According to the induced lightning current
Judging the nearest lightning falling position:
when the induced lightning current is satisfied
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
(ii) a When the induced lightning current is satisfied
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
. Most preferablyFar thunder position
Can be calculated from the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the unit is kV for 50% discharge voltage of lightning impulse of the insulator.
Step 2-2-3, if the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width exists, calculating the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width, and if not, setting the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width to be 0;
wherein, according to the nearest lightning-down position
And the furthest lightning landing position
Judging whether the induced lightning stroke lightning width exists or not: when in use
>
If yes, the equivalent lightning receiving width of the circuit is further calculated
Otherwise, the equivalent lightning receiving width of the lightning will be sensed
Is set to 0.
When in use
>
Then, calculating the induced lightning equivalent lightning receiving width of the circuit
The calculation formula is as follows:
step 2-3, calculating the total lightning receiving width according to the direct lightning receiving width and the induction lightning equivalent lightning receiving width of the distribution line;
total lightning width
The calculation formula of (A) is as follows:
step 2-4, calculating the area of the lightning guiding area according to the total lightning receiving width;
specifically, the lightning attraction area is a total lightning receiving area, and the length of the lightning attraction area is
The distribution line of (a) the power distribution line,
the unit of (b) is km, and the calculation formula of the area of the lightning induction area is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the area of the lightning area of the line, and has the unit of km 2 。
Step 3, calculating the lightning stroke probability of the distribution lines in the target area based on the area of the lightning triggering area, and calculating the trip probability after being hit by the lightning;
specifically, step 3 further includes:
step 3-1, calculating the lightning stroke probability of the distribution line in the target area
；
And whether the distribution line in the target area is influenced by lightning stroke depends on whether the lightning falling position is within the lightning receiving range of the line. Therefore, whether a certain lightning strike affects the line can be represented by the proportion of the lightning strike area of the line, and the probability of the lightning strike
Is calculated as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the total area of the target region in
。
Step 3-2, calculating the tripping probability of the distribution line in the target area after being struck by lightning
；
The distribution network is mainly influenced by direct lightning and induced lightning, wherein the direct lightning comprises lightning which directly hits a line and strikes a tower to cause counterattack. The process of causing a line trip includes three phases, respectively: whether a direct lightning strike or an induced overvoltage is generated, whether a flashover is caused, and whether a stable arc is generated. When the line is influenced by lightning strike, the trip probability after being struck by lightning
The calculation formula of (A) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
、
、
respectively the direct lightning strike rate, the striking rod rate and the induced lightning strike rate,
、
and
respectively shows flashover rates corresponding to lightning counterattack, lightning direct attack lines and induced lightning overvoltage caused by lightning striking the tower,
the arc rate is established.
The lightning stroke types comprise lightning counterattack caused by lightning striking of a tower, direct attack of lightning on a line and induced lightning overvoltage. The lightning direct attack rate, the pole hitting rate and the induced lightning strike rate respectively represent the proportion of direct lightning strike to the number of lightning strikes, the proportion of lightning pole tower times to the number of direct lightning strikes and the proportion of induced lightning strike to the number of lightning strikes, all the three parameters are obtained through historical statistical data in a long-term range acquired for the target area, for example, the statistical data are obtained through statistics according to data of the past year, and for the sake of calculation convenience, the statistical data can respectively represent the probability that a certain lightning strike is direct lightning strike, the probability of strike on the pole tower under the condition of direct strike and the probability of induced lightning strike.
Further, the arc-building rate
The calculation formula of (A) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
for the average operating voltage gradient of the insulator string, the average operating voltage gradient of the insulator string is obtained because the power distribution network generally adopts a neutral point which is not grounded
The calculation was performed using the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the rated voltage of the insulator string,
the cross arm of the insulator string is a wood cross arm, an iron cross arm or a reinforced concrete cross arm,
for the inter-line distance of the wooden cross-arms, for the lines of the iron cross-arms and the reinforced concrete cross-arms
。
When the lightning stroke trip-out rate is calculated in engineering, the long-term lightning stroke risk of a line is considered, so that
、
And
the calculation of (2) is based on the distribution of the whole lightning current amplitude, but the duration may be only a few hours for a certain lightning extreme weather, so that the distribution of the whole lightning current amplitude is not suitable to be used as the calculation basis.
The IEEE recommends the use of the following formula as the cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitude:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
for a given lightning current amplitude, the given current value is dependent on the insulation level of the insulator or the line, and is a fixed value with the unit of kA;
representing the magnitude of lightning current
Greater than the probability of a given lightning current amplitude.
Therefore, the lightning current exceeding the lightning withstand level corresponding to different lightning strike types can be calculated according to the following formula
Probability of (2)
、
And
the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula，
Has a value range of
，
Respectively represents lightning resistant levels respectively corresponding to lightning counterattack, lightning direct attack lines and induced lightning overvoltage caused by lightning striking a tower, can be obtained through line insulation levels,
and
respectively in the past time period
And monitoring the maximum and minimum lightning current amplitude of the target area by the lightning monitoring system.
Step 4, calculating the future according to the lightning stroke probability in the distribution line, the trip probability after being struck by lightning and the predicted lightning activity frequency
Probability of lightning trip of the distribution line in the area of the lightning induction area within a time period;
wherein the probability of line lightning trip caused by a certain lightning strike
Can be expressed as follows:
further, consider the future from the present time T
Within a time periodThe number of landings in the interior is
Then in the future period
Probability of inter-line lightning trip
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
predicting the next time period for step 1
Number of landings
。
As shown in fig. 4, the present invention further provides a power distribution line lightning trip probability calculation system considering the similarity of lightning parameters in adjacent time periods, and the method can be implemented based on the system, specifically, the system includes: the lightning protection device comprises a data acquisition module, a lightning intensity calculation module, a lightning stroke area calculation module and a lightning stroke trip-out probability calculation module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring lightning activity intensity and lightning activity frequency data of a target area in a previous time period at the current moment;
the lightning intensity calculating module is used for calculating the intensity and the lightning activity frequency of the lightning activity of the target area in the next period of the current moment;
the lightning stroke area calculation module is used for calculating the total lightning receiving width and the lightning guiding area of the target area in the next time period at the current moment;
and the lightning trip probability calculation module is used for calculating the lightning trip probability of the distribution line of the target area in the next time period at the current moment.
Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the shorter the time interval is, the closer the intensity and frequency of the lightning are, and the higher the predicted reliability is, so that the lightning stroke prediction is carried out by considering the similarity of the lightning parameters of the adjacent time periods, and the reliability and accuracy of the prediction are improved; the method also considers the induced lightning strike suffered by the line, calculates the lightning strike width of the distribution line based on the induced lightning strike, can be used for predicting the lightning strike trip-out probability of the distribution line, is favorable for calculating the lightning strike trip-out probability of an evaluation period under the condition of knowing the next lightning influence time period, and is convenient for the subsequent risk evaluation and the formulation of an active protection strategy.
The present applicant has described and illustrated embodiments of the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, and the detailed description is only for the purpose of helping the reader to better understand the spirit of the present invention, and not for limiting the scope of the present invention, and on the contrary, any improvement or modification made based on the spirit of the present invention should fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (14)
1. A distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method based on adjacent time period parameters is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, setting the current time point as
Obtaining the past in the target area
Historical lightning activity intensity and historical lightning activity frequency in a time period, and acquiring the future lightning activity intensity and the historical lightning activity frequency according to the historical lightning activity intensity
Predicted lightning activity intensity and lightning activity frequency over a period of time;
step 2, calculating the total lightning receiving width in the target area according to the predicted lightning activity intensity, and calculating the area of the lightning guiding area based on the lightning receiving width;
step 3, calculating the lightning stroke probability of the distribution lines in the target area based on the area of the lightning triggering area, and calculating the trip probability after being hit by the lightning;
step 4, calculating the future lightning stroke probability in the distribution line, the trip probability after being struck by lightning and the predicted lightning activity frequency
Probability of distribution line lightning trip-out in the area of the lightning induction area in the time period.
2. The method for calculating lightning trip probability of distribution line based on adjacent time interval parameters according to claim 1,
the step 1 further comprises:
step 1-1, obtaining the current time
Before one
Historical lightning activity intensity in the period of time, and obtaining the intensity of the following lightning activity according to the historical lightning activity intensity
Intensity of lightning activity over a period of time;
step 1-2, obtaining the current time
Before one
Historical lightning activity over a period of timeFrequency and deriving a future frequency from historical lightning activity
Frequency of lightning activity over a period of time.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the lightning trip probability of the distribution line is calculated based on the parameters of the adjacent time periods,
the step 1-1 further comprises:
indicating the intensity of lightning activity by the magnitude of lightning current in the target area, over a period of time in the past
In the method, the amplitude values of the maximum lightning current and the minimum lightning current monitored by the lightning monitoring system in a target area are obtained respectively
Predicting the next time period of the target area from the current time T
Lightning current amplitude ofIThe range should satisfy:
4. the method for calculating lightning trip probability of distribution line based on adjacent time interval parameters according to claim 2,
the step 1-2 further comprises:
indicating the frequency of lightning activity by the number of landings in the target area, over the past period of time
In the method, the lightning monitoring system monitors the number of lightning strikes in a target area as
The number of landmine falls per unit time is
Predicting the next time period from the current time T
Number of landings
Satisfies the following conditions:
5. the method for calculating lightning trip probability of distribution line based on adjacent time interval parameters according to claim 1,
the step 2 further comprises:
step 2-1, calculating the direct lightning strike width of a distribution line in a target area;
step 2-2, calculating the equivalent lightning receiving width of the induction lightning of the distribution line in the target area;
step 2-3, calculating the total lightning receiving width according to the direct lightning receiving width and the inductive lightning equivalent lightning receiving width of the distribution line;
and 2-4, calculating the area of the lightning guiding area according to the total lightning receiving width.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the lightning trip probability of the distribution line is calculated based on the parameters of the adjacent time periods,
in the step 2-1, the calculation of the direct lightning strike receiving width of the distribution line further includes:
calculating the attack distance of the lightning to the wire, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
in order to ensure the striking distance of the lightning to the conducting wire,
the measurement units are m for the height of the tower,
the lightning current amplitude, namely the lightning activity intensity predicted in the step 1, is represented by kA;
calculating the strike distance of the lightning to the ground according to the strike distance of the lightning to the conducting wire
The calculation formula is:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the unit of the distance between the lightning and the ground is m;
according to the distance of lightning striking the conductor
And the distance of lightning striking the ground
Calculating the direct lightning strike lightning receiving width of the distribution line according to the following calculation formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is composed ofKThe point is the width of the direct lightning strike,
the lightning receiving width of the direct lightning strike is set.
7. The method for calculating lightning trip probability of distribution line based on adjacent time interval parameters according to claim 6,
the step 2-2 further comprises:
step 2-2-1, calculating critical current of demarcation point M of impact distance of lightning to the conducting wire
；
Critical current at boundary point M
The calculation formula of (c) is as follows:
step 2-2-2, calculating the nearest and farthest lightning falling positions of the induced lightning stroke
、
Judging whether the induced lightning stroke lightning width exists or not;
wherein the nearest lightning strike location for an induced lightning strike
: when the induced lightning current is satisfied
When the utility model is used, the water is discharged,
(ii) a When the induced lightning current is satisfied
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
；
furthest lightning landing location for induced lightning strikes
The calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the unit is kV, which is 50% of the discharge voltage of the lightning impulse of the insulator;
step 2-2-3, if the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width exists, calculating the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width, and if not, setting the induced lightning stroke lightning receiving width to be 0;
wherein when
>
Calculating the induced lightning equivalent lightning receiving width of the circuit
The calculation formula is as follows:
8. the method of claim 7, wherein the method for calculating the lightning trip probability of distribution line based on adjacent time interval parameters,
in the step 2-3, the total lightning receiving width
The calculation formula of (c) is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in order to directly strike the mine and receive the width of the mine,
the equivalent lightning receiving width of the inductive lightning is obtained.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the lightning trip probability of the distribution line is calculated based on the parameters of the adjacent time periods,
in the step 2-4, the area of the lightning guiding area is calculated according to the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the length of the distribution line, in km,
is the area of the lightning-drawing area of the line, and has a unit of km 2 。
10. The method of claim 1, wherein the lightning trip probability of the distribution line is calculated based on the parameters of the adjacent time periods,
the step 3 further comprises:
step 3-1, calculating lightning stroke probability of distribution lines in target area
；
Wherein the probability of lightning strike
Is calculated as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the area of the lightning-leading region of the circuit,
is the total area of the target region in
；
Step 3-2, calculating the tripping probability of the distribution line in the target area after being struck by lightning
；
Wherein the probability of tripping after being struck by lightning
The calculation formula of (A) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
、
、
respectively the direct lightning strike rate, the striking rod rate and the induced lightning strike rate,
、
and
respectively represents flashover rates corresponding to lightning counterattack, lightning direct attack lines and induced lightning overvoltage caused by lightning striking towers,
the arc rate is established.
11. The method of claim 1, wherein the lightning trip probability of the distribution line is calculated based on the parameters of the adjacent time periods,
the step 4 further comprises:
calculating the probability of line lightning trip caused by a certain lightning strike
The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the probability of lightning strikes for distribution lines within the target area,
representing the trip probability of the distribution line in the target area after being struck by lightning;
in the future
Probability of inter-line lightning trip
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
predicting the next time period for step 1
Number of landings
The frequency of the lightning activity, i.e. the predicted frequency of lightning activity,
is the past time period
In the method, the lightning monitoring system monitors the number of lightning strikes in a target area,
for the length of the period of time that has elapsed,
is the calculated future slot length.
12. A power distribution line lightning trip probability calculation system based on adjacent time period parameters by using the power distribution line lightning trip probability calculation method based on adjacent time period parameters of any one of claims 1-11, comprising: the lightning protection device comprises a data acquisition module, a lightning intensity calculation module, a lightning stroke region calculation module and a lightning stroke tripping probability calculation module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring lightning activity intensity and lightning activity frequency data of the target area in a previous time period of the current moment;
the lightning intensity calculating module is used for calculating the intensity and the lightning activity frequency of lightning activity of the target area in the next period of the current moment;
the lightning stroke area calculation module is used for calculating the total lightning receiving width and the lightning guiding area of the target area in the next time period at the current moment;
and the lightning trip probability calculation module is used for calculating the lightning trip probability of the distribution line of the target area in the next time period at the current moment.
13. A terminal comprising a processor and a storage medium; the method is characterized in that:
the storage medium is used for storing instructions;
the processor is configured to operate in accordance with the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 11.
14. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 11.
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