CN103837769A - Lightening damage early-warning method and system for electric transmission line - Google Patents
Lightening damage early-warning method and system for electric transmission line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a lightening damage early-warning method and system for an electric transmission line. The method includes the following steps that first, weather, satellite, radar and lightening positioning system data are collected, and lightening early-warning parameters at some period in the future are obtained through a comprehensive lightening prediction algorithm; second, according to different lightening overvoltage formation mechanisms, shielding failure and back striking calculation models are selected respectively, calculation is performed through the lightening early-warning parameters and line characteristic parameters, and the lightening trip probability of the electric transmission line is predicted; third, the lightening trip probability of the line is evaluated, the lightening trip probability of each base electric transmission line pole tower is compared with a determined line trip risk early-warning threshold value, and different levels of early-warning signals are obtained. Through the lightening damage early-warning method and system for the electric transmission line, lightening damage to the electric transmission line can be early warned effectively and timely, and technological support is provided for lightening protection and disaster relief of the electric transmission line.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric system lightning monitoring early warning field, specifically a kind of transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning and system thereof.
Background technology
The movable method for early warning of thunderstorm mainly contains following three kinds at present:
1, the Application in Potential Prediction of thunder and lightning
Thunder and lightning is to be accompanied by convection weather and a kind of strong weather phenomenon that produces, so for the Application in Potential Prediction on the larger spatial and temporal scales of thunder and lightning, be exactly the forecast of the possibility of the generation to strong convective weather in fact.
2, the nowcasting of thunder and lightning
Nowcasting refers to the weather forecast of 0~2 hour, and the data information of real-time monitored is its main decision-making foundation.For the nowcasting of thunder and lightning, to utilize closely related between lightening activity and strong convection activity, by the impact on thunderstorm activity of the each level convective activity of analyse atmos, analysis find out can the activity of relatively accurate forecast thunderstorm parameter and the span of parameter, this is an important thinking of carrying out Lightning Warning forecast work.
3 lightning location systems
Lightning location system (LLS) is to be succeeded in developing first by American Martin A Uman, Krider E P etc. middle 1970s.Its ultimate principle is the thunder and lightning electromagnetic wave during with multiple measurement antenna measurements thunderbolt, through calculative determination thunderbolt place, amplitude of lightning current and the lightning current maximum gradient of computing machine.China's the eighties is introduced this technology.Lightning location system many provinces and cities at home apply, and have in use found the following problem.
(1) equipment complexity, front-end investment is large;
(2) there is certain error and survey dead band in positioning system itself;
(3) orographic factor is large to the interference of acquisition station, and error is larger;
(4) cannot realize the shaft tower being struck by lightning accurately locates;
(5) there is error to the calculating of amplitude of lightning current in positioning system, can't actually check at present;
(6) can not provide lightning current waveform.
Therefore it is significant to carrying out transmission line of electricity Thunder Protection to study a kind of new damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning.
Summary of the invention
The object of this invention is to provide a kind of transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning, use transmission line structure parameter and Lightning Warning parameter, transmission line lightning stroke tripping operation probability is predicted, realized the timely early warning of transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder, provide technical support to carrying out transmission line of electricity Thunder Protection.
The scheme of technical solution problem of the present invention is as follows: a kind of transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning, comprises the steps:
1,, by the common factor of electrical network thunderstorm warning module computing electric power line and thunderstorm scope, prediction has thunder circuit and has the thunderbolt parameter of thunder shaft tower, as thunderbolt density and amplitude of lightning current.
2, according to prediction have thunder overhead line structures, transfer corresponding overhead line structures parameter from database, comprise tower structure feature, insulation configuration, lightening protection installation configuration and circuit terrain feature etc., carry out the calculating of shaft tower lightning stroke trip probability in conjunction with thunderbolt parameter;
3, carry out the judgement of line voltage distribution grade, the acquiescence lightning withstand level of different electric pressures is different with structural parameters;
4, carry out the judgement of transmission line of electricity list/double back, to select different computing modules;
5, the counterattack tripping operation probability of each base shaft tower of difference computational scheme and shielding tripping operation probability:
6, use return journey method to calculate the counterattack lightning stroke trip probability of shaft tower;
7, calculate shaft tower shielding lightning stroke trip probability by electric geometric model (EGM) method;
8, shaft tower counterattack tripping rate with lightning strike and shielding tripping rate with lightning strike sum are shaft tower tripping rate with lightning strike, utilize counterattack and the shielding tripping operation probability of line span to every base shaft tower to be weighted, to sue for peace, and draw the lightning stroke trip probability of whole piece circuit;
9, the transmission line caused by lightning strike probability results finally calculating is carried out advanced warning grade division, as in the time that transmission line caused by lightning strike probability is less than 0.15 time/100km, for low etc.; In the time being greater than 0.15 time/100km and being less than 0.25 time/100km, for medium; In the time being greater than 0.25 time/100km, for high.
A transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder early warning system that is applicable to transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning, comprises 3 functional modules, is followed successively by: Lightning Warning module, transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module and transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module.Between module, as shown in Figure 1, previous module provides necessary Data support for a rear module to relation.
Lightning Warning module: according to the real-time weather data prediction imminent scope of thunder and lightning and intensity, and provide the early warning of thunderbolt parameter for power transmission line corridor region.
Transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module: suffer the risk of lightning stroke trip according to circuit in the following unit interval of transmission line parameter and corridor Lightning Warning calculation of parameter, can be divided into two kinds of thunderbolt and counterattack risks according to Computing Principle difference.
Transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module: determine damage to crops caused by thunder risk threshold values according to transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder account of the history statistics, by transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation result and the comparison of risk threshold values, the damage to crops caused by thunder advanced warning grade and the region that comprehensively draw transmission line of electricity.
Described damage to crops caused by thunder advanced warning grade is divided into Three Estate: low grade, medium and high.
For convenient statement, define the concept of " lightning stroke trip probability ": average 100km transmission line of electricity closes on early warning system at thunderstorm and sends the probability that trip accident occurred in the unit interval after early warning." shielding lightning stroke trip probability " refers to that average 100km transmission line of electricity closes on early warning system at thunderstorm and sends the probability that shielding trip accident occurred in the unit interval after early warning." counterattack lightning stroke trip probability " refers to that average 100km transmission line of electricity closes on early warning system at thunderstorm and sends the probability that counterattack trip accident occurred in the unit interval after early warning." transmission line caused by lightning strike probability " refers to that average 100km transmission line of electricity closes on early warning system at thunderstorm and sends the probability that trip accident occurred in the unit interval after early warning.Tripping rate with lightning strike is counterattack tripping rate with lightning strike and shielding tripping rate with lightning strike sum.
Lightning Warning parameter is real-time, thereby the lightning stroke trip probability of the shielding lightning stroke trip probability calculating, counterattack lightning stroke trip probability and circuit is also real-time, can predict damage to crops caused by thunder more timely, and damage to crops caused by thunder assessment models predicted data is assessed.The transmission line caused by lightning strike probability results calculating is carried out advanced warning grade division, as in the time that transmission line caused by lightning strike probability is less than 0.15 time/100km, for low etc.; In the time being greater than 0.15 time/100km and being less than 0.25 time/100km, for medium; In the time being greater than 0.25 time/100km, for high.
The present invention's advantage compared with the prior art has:
1. use real-time Lightning Warning parameter, in time damage to crops caused by thunder is predicted;
2. can give prominence to the shaft tower that thunderbolt risk is higher;
3. visual result.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the functional module of transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning.
Fig. 2 is circuit damage to crops caused by thunder risk assessment process flow diagram.
Fig. 3 is code method calculation flow chart.
Fig. 4 is EGM method calculation flow chart.
Fig. 5 is a 220kV transmission line of electricity circuit thunderbolt density profile.
Fig. 6 is not for calculating down in the same time 220kV transmission line caused by lightning strike probability comparison diagram.
Embodiment
By specific embodiment, technical scheme of the present invention is described further below.
As shown in Figure 2, transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning of the present invention, comprise the steps: by the common factor of electrical network thunderstorm warning module computing electric power line and thunderstorm scope, prediction has thunder circuit and has the thunderbolt parameter of thunder shaft tower: thunderbolt density and amplitude of lightning current f (I).According to prediction have a thunder circuit, have the line parameter circuit value of thunder circuit from track data library call, mainly comprise line construction feature and circuit terrain feature.Use thunderbolt parameter and line parameter circuit value to carry out the calculating of shaft tower lightning stroke trip probability: carry out electric pressure selection by line parameter circuit value, the lightning withstand level of different electric pressures is different with structural parameters; Carry out the judgement of transmission line of electricity list double back, to select different computing modules; Calculate respectively counterattack lightning stroke trip probability and the shielding lightning stroke trip probability of each base shaft tower: use return journey method to calculate the counterattack lightning stroke trip probability of shaft tower, process flow diagram as shown in Figure 3; The exposed range calculating by EGM method and critical current calculate shaft tower shielding lightning stroke trip probability, and process flow diagram as shown in Figure 4; Every base shaft tower lightning stroke trip probability, for counterattack and shielding tripping operation probability sum, utilizes line span weighting shaft tower lightning stroke trip probability, and read group total goes out the total lightning stroke trip probability of circuit; Transmission line caused by lightning strike probability results is carried out to advanced warning grade division: in the time that the transmission line caused by lightning strike probability calculating is less than 0.15 time/100km, for low etc.; In the time being greater than 0.15 time/100km and being less than 0.25 time/100km, for medium; In the time being greater than 0.25 time/100km, for high.
A transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder early warning system that is applicable to transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning, comprises 3 functional modules, is followed successively by: Lightning Warning module, transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module and transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module.Between module, as shown in Figure 1, previous module provides necessary Data support for a rear module to relation.
Lightning Warning module: according to the real-time weather data prediction imminent scope of thunder and lightning and intensity, and provide the early warning of thunderbolt parameter for power transmission line corridor region.
Transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module: suffer the risk of lightning stroke trip according to circuit in the following unit interval of transmission line parameter and corridor Lightning Warning calculation of parameter, can be divided into two kinds of thunderbolt and counterattack risks according to Computing Principle difference.
Transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module: determine damage to crops caused by thunder risk threshold values according to transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder account of the history statistics, by transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation result and the comparison of risk threshold values, the damage to crops caused by thunder advanced warning grade and the region that comprehensively draw transmission line of electricity.
Described damage to crops caused by thunder advanced warning grade is divided into Three Estate: low grade, medium and high.
Concrete test examples
Taking certain 220kV common-tower double-return circuit as example, this total track length 33.304km, totally 79 base shaft towers, this circuit A phase conductor average height is 20.8162m, maximal value is 48.336m, minimum value is 12m, B phase conductor average height is 26.72127m, maximal value is 57.3m, minimum value is 12.336m, C phase conductor average height is 21.99975m, maximal value is 50.8m, minimum value be 12.036m:A mutually in anomaly average be 6.631646m, maximal value is 8.5m, minimum value is 4.85m, B mutually middle anomaly average is 1.305823m, maximal value is 6.5m, minimum value is 0, C mutually middle anomaly average is 6.6594494m, maximal value is 8.5m, minimum value is 4.25m, this circuit sets up double earth wire completely, and lightning conducter average height is 31.6793m, and maximal value is 61.8m, and minimum value is 17.523m, in lightning conducter, anomaly average is 4.75038m, and maximal value is 6.33m, and minimum value is 3m.Circuit landform comprises Plain and mountain region, and passes through high mountain high hill midway, relates to climbing, across mountain valley, along complex landforms such as mountain tops.It is 7.657975 degree that ground elevation is all set as mean value, and maximal value is 25.4 degree, and minimum value is-20.54 degree.This circuit pack shaft tower 29#, 32#, 41#, 44#, 46#, 52#, 60#, 69#, 72# has installed lightning arrester.When calculating, stake resistance adopts empirical value, and unification is made as 6 Ω, and coefficient of impact unification is made as 0.8.
A this circuit experience Strong Thunderstorm---lightning stroke trip process, by the common factor of electric network thunder and lightning warning module computing electric power line and thunderstorm scope, prediction has thunder circuit and has the thunderbolt parameter of thunder shaft tower, transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module receives the thunderbolt parameter of Lightning Warning module, combined circuit architectural feature data are calculated, and transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module carries out early warning according to the result of calculation of computing module.Lightning Warning data are rolled in real time, refreshed one time lightning information every 15 minutes, table 1 has been listed this circuit location every 15 minutes (19:00,19:15,19:30 from 19:00 to 20:45,19:45,20:00,20:15,20:30, thunderbolt density value 20:45), represents the thunderbolt Density Distribution situation of this area in predict future 15 minutes.Fig. 5 has recorded thunder and lightning evolution and transmission line caused by lightning strike failure message simultaneously.
Table 1 circuit thunderbolt density
Amplitude of lightning current cumulative probability formula adopts f (I)=1/[1+ (I/a)
b] calculate, obtain a by the matching of lightning location system statistics, b, wherein a=40, b=2.8.
To input data input calculation procedure and calculate, and for counterattack lightning stroke trip probability, adopt code method to calculate, and adopt EGM method to calculate for shielding lightning stroke trip probability.For the shaft tower that installs lightning arrester additional, due to the effect of lightning arrester, it is considered herein that its tripping operation is zero.In the time solving transmission line caused by lightning strike probability, the 1/2 span method of employing solves.Obtain result of calculation as shown in table 2.
Each base shaft tower lightning stroke trip probability calculation result in certain circuit Thundercloud of table 2
Fig. 6 has provided the calculated value of this circuit at the road lightning stroke trip probability that do not roll off the production line in the same time.Wherein early warning threshold values is the lightning stroke trip probability early warning threshold values that this calculated examples is drafted, and in the time that transmission line caused by lightning strike probability exceedes early warning threshold values, sends early warning signal.
Claims (2)
1. a transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning, is characterized in that: comprise the steps:
(1), by the common factor of electrical network thunderstorm warning module computing electric power line and thunderstorm scope, prediction has thunder circuit and has the thunderbolt parameter of thunder shaft tower, as thunderbolt density and amplitude of lightning current;
(2) according to prediction have thunder overhead line structures, transfer corresponding overhead line structures parameter from database, comprise tower structure feature, insulation configuration, lightening protection installation configuration and circuit terrain feature, carry out the calculating of shaft tower lightning stroke trip probability in conjunction with thunderbolt parameter;
(3) carry out the judgement of line voltage distribution grade, the acquiescence lightning withstand level of different electric pressures is different with structural parameters;
(4) carry out the judgement of transmission line of electricity list/double back, to select different computing modules;
(5) the counterattack tripping operation probability of each base shaft tower of difference computational scheme and shielding tripping operation probability;
(6) use return journey method to calculate the counterattack lightning stroke trip probability of shaft tower;
(7) calculate shaft tower shielding lightning stroke trip probability by electric geometric model EGM method;
(8) shaft tower counterattack tripping rate with lightning strike and shielding tripping rate with lightning strike sum are shaft tower tripping rate with lightning strike, utilize counterattack and the shielding tripping operation probability of line span to every base shaft tower to be weighted, to sue for peace, and draw the tripping rate with lightning strike of whole piece circuit;
(9) the transmission line caused by lightning strike probability results finally calculating is carried out advanced warning grade division, as in the time that transmission line caused by lightning strike probability is less than 0.15 time/100km, for low etc.; In the time being greater than 0.15 time/100km and being less than 0.25 time/100km, for medium; In the time being greater than 0.25 time/100km, for high.
2. one kind is applicable to the transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder early warning system of transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder method for early warning claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, comprise Lightning Warning module, transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module and transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module, Lightning Warning module, transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module are connected successively with transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module, previous module provides necessary Data support for a rear module
Lightning Warning module: according to the real-time weather data prediction imminent scope of thunder and lightning and intensity, and provide the early warning of thunderbolt parameter for power transmission line corridor region;
Transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation module: suffer the risk of lightning stroke trip according to circuit in the following unit interval of transmission line parameter and corridor Lightning Warning calculation of parameter, can be divided into two kinds of thunderbolt and counterattack risks according to Computing Principle difference;
Transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder warning module: determine damage to crops caused by thunder risk threshold values according to transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder account of the history statistics, by transmission line of electricity damage to crops caused by thunder Risk Calculation result and the comparison of risk threshold values, the damage to crops caused by thunder advanced warning grade and the region that comprehensively draw transmission line of electricity;
Described damage to crops caused by thunder advanced warning grade is divided into Three Estate: low grade, medium and high.
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CN116070794A (en) * | 2023-03-29 | 2023-05-05 | 合肥工业大学 | Current collecting line impact trip probability prediction and alarm method and system |
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