CN114936476B - Urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model algorithm based on scene simulation, which mainly comprises the steps of urban rainstorm intensity calculation, rainstorm waterlogging grade determination, urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on different scenes such as a recurrence period and rainfall duration and the like. The invention establishes an urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model based on scene simulation, which utilizes urban waterlogging depths caused by rainfall scenes of different reproduction periods and different rainfall duration to carry out urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment, can be applied to the fields of urban construction planning, urban waterlogging management and the like, and provides scientific basis for urban flood risk prevention.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of atmospheric and environmental science, and particularly relates to urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on scene simulation.
Background
Urban waterlogging is a serious natural disaster, and is generally caused by concentrated strong rainfall in a short time, and a large amount of rainwater generated by rainfall exceeds the discharge capacity of an urban drainage system, so that ponding can occur in a certain area in the city to cause disasters. Urban rainstorm waterlogging becomes an important challenge for the safety development of cities in China, and urban waterlogging risk assessment has important guiding significance for municipal planning and construction.
At present, the urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster risk assessment model has more consideration factors, and a plurality of factors and related weights thereof are difficult to objectively determine (at present, the experience estimation method is still used for collecting the disaster conditions at various places in China as a main means), so that the operability is not strong and the subjectivity is also large in practical application.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: aiming at the existing problems and defects, the invention aims to provide an urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model algorithm based on scenario simulation, the model carries out urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment by using ponding depths caused by rainfall scenarios with different recurrence periods and different rainfall duration, can be applied to the fields of urban construction planning, urban waterlogging management and the like, and provides a scientific basis for urban flood risk prevention.
The technical scheme is as follows: in order to realize the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: a city rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model algorithm based on scene simulation comprises the following steps:
step S1, calculating the intensity of rainstorm
Firstly, calculating the urban rainstorm intensity through the rainstorm intensity formula (1)i，
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,ithe unit is the rainstorm intensity and is mm/min;Tfor the recovery period, the unit is a,tthe rainfall duration is in units of min;b、n、A 1 andCall the parameters are fitting parameters of an urban rainstorm intensity formula, are obtained by fitting urban rainfall observation data, and can also adopt an urban rainstorm intensity formula published by a municipal department.
S2, calculating the depth and grade of the accumulated water
Combining the urban rainstorm intensity with a runoff production model, a digital elevation model DEM, a pipe network drainage flood and building density, calculating to obtain the ponding depth d of an urban grid, determining the urban rainstorm ponding grade W according to the influence of the ponding depth on the city,
；
s3, evaluating the risk of rainstorm waterlogging based on different reappearance period scenes
First, a city grid is used as a calculation unit, and the number is assumed to bekDuring the reproduction period of the calculation unit ofA m Unit is a, rainfall duration isR n The unit is the ponding grade under the condition of min
Wherein the lower corner markmIn order to identify the period of the recurrence,
m is the total number set in the recurrence period; lower corner marknIs the mark of the duration of the rainfall,
n is the total number set by the rainfall duration;
then, the calculation unit in the reproduction period is obtained by the formula (2)A m Risk value under scenario
；
Obtaining the comprehensive risk value of the computing unit under a plurality of reproduction period scenes through the formula (3)
；
Then, for the comprehensive risk value
Carrying out risk grade division;
step S4, evaluating the risk of rainstorm waterlogging based on different rainfall duration scenes
First, a city grid is used as a calculation unit, and the number is assumed to bekDuring the reproduction period of the calculation unit ofA m When the rainfall lastsR n The water accumulation grade under the scene is
WhereinkIdentifying the serial number of the computing unit; lower corner markmIn order to identify the period of the recurrence,
m is the total number set in the recurrence period; lower corner marknThe duration of the rainfall is marked by the duration of the rainfall,
n is the total number set by the rainfall duration;
then, the calculation unit is obtained by calculating according to the formula (4) during the rainfallR n Risk value under scenario
；
Obtaining a comprehensive risk value of the computing unit under a plurality of rainfall duration scenes by the formula (5)V k
Further, the reproduction period in step S3A m Set total number M =9,A 1 、A 2 、A 3 、A 4 、A 5 、A 6 、A 7 、A 8 、A 9 Corresponding to the reproduction periods 1a,2a,3a,5a,10a,20a,30a,50a,100a。
further, the duration of rainfall in step S3R n Set total number N =9,R 1 、R 2 、R 3 、R 4 、R 5 、R 6 、R 7 、R 8 、R 9 Corresponding to rainfall for 10min,20min,30min,45min,60min,90min,120min,150min and 180min respectively.
Further, the calculation parameters in the formula (1) of the rainstorm intensity in step S1b、n、A 1 AndCthe rainfall is obtained by fitting the urban rainfall observation data, or the urban rainstorm intensity formula published by the municipal department is adopted.
Further, the grade W of the urban storm water in the step S2 is set according to the following formula (6),
in the formula, d is the depth of accumulated water.
Further, step S3 is based on the integrated risk value
Conducting Risk ratingsPThe division is carried out according to the formula (7),
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
representing a composite risk value; no risk is indicated when the risk grade is I; when the risk grade is II, low risk is indicated; a risk grade of iii indicates moderate risk; when the risk grade is IV, higher risk is indicated; a risk rating of v indicates a high risk.
Further, the pair of computing units in step S4kUnder the condition of multiple rainfall duration, according to the comprehensive risk value
Conducting a Risk rankingPThe division is carried out according to the formula (8),
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,V k representing a composite risk value; risk ratingPWhen I is expressed as no risk; risk ratingPWhen II, low risk is indicated; risk ratingPAt iii, an intermediate risk is indicated; risk levelPAt iv, higher risk is indicated; risk ratingPAt v, high risk is indicated.
Has the beneficial effects that: compared with the prior art, the urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment is realized based on the rainfall situations in different reproduction periods and by combining urban waterlogging depth simulation, and the given risk assessment model has the advantages of quantification, objectivity, strong operability, easiness in popularization and the like.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment model algorithm based on scenario simulation according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of the risk of rainstorm and waterlogging during the reoccurrence period of Nanjing main urban area 1a according to the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a comprehensive risk map of rainstorm and waterlogging in the main urban area of Nanjing according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further illustrated by the following figures and specific examples, which are to be understood as illustrative only and not as limiting the scope of the invention, which is to be given the full breadth of the appended claims and any and all equivalent modifications thereof which may occur to those skilled in the art upon reading the present specification.
With reference to the flow of fig. 1, the technical idea and flow of the method of the present invention are described in detail as follows:
(1) Calculating the amount of rainfall
Calculating the accumulated rainfall under the conditions of different reappearance periods and different rainfall durations according to an urban rainstorm intensity formula, wherein the rainstorm intensity formula is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,iintensity of rainstorm (mm/min); Tthe recurring period (a).tRainfall duration (min);b、n、A 1 、Cas parameters, fitting calculation is carried out according to local rainfall observation data according to the design specification for outdoor drainage GB50014-2006, and an urban rainstorm intensity formula is generally published by municipal departments. Taking Nanjing as an example, the rainstorm intensity formula of Nanjing city published by the city administration of Nanjing city in 2014 is as follows:
According to the formula, the rainfall capacity of Nanjing can be calculated to obtain different rainfall duration scenes in different reproduction periods (see table 1)
TABLE 1 cumulative rainfall (mm) under the situation of different raining duration corresponding to different reproduction periods in Nanjing City
(2) Calculating depth and grade of water accumulation
The accumulated rainfall under the situations of different reproduction periods and different rainfall durations is calculated according to a rainstorm intensity formula (table 1), and then the flow generation model, the DEM (digital elevation model), the pipe network drainage waterlogging, the building density and the like are combined to calculate and obtain the urban grid ponding depth (note: the flow generation can be calculated by utilizing the SCS model of the soil and water conservation bureau of the United states department of agriculture, and then the urban grid ponding depth is calculated and obtained by combining the influence of the DEM, the pipe network drainage waterlogging and the building density on confluence. The influence of urban rainstorm ponding on different industries is comprehensively considered by looking up domestic and foreign standards, papers, data and the like, and the grade of the urban rainstorm ponding is set and is shown in a table 2.
TABLE 2 urban rainstorm water rating
(3) Rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on different reappearance period scenes
The water depth was converted to water grade according to table 2. Let arbitrary calculation unit (grid)kIn the reproduction period ofA m (a) Duration of rainfallR n (min) Water accumulation rating in the scene
WhereinkIdentifying the serial number of the computing unit; lower corner markmIn order to identify the period of the recurrence,m=1,2,3,4,5, … … M, M is the total number of the recurrence periods, generally 9; lower corner marknThe duration of the rainfall is marked by the duration of the rainfall,n=1,2,3,4,5, … … N, N is total number of rainfall duration, and is generally 9. Computing unitkThe matrix of the water accumulation grades in different rainfall duration scenes in different reappearance periods is shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 calculation UnitkPonding level matrix under different rainfall duration scenes in different reappearance periods
A m (a) In the scenario of the recurrence period, the risk value of the calculation unitP k,m The calculation formula is as follows:
the integrated risk value of the calculation unit taking into account a plurality of recurrence periodsP k The calculation formula is as follows:
P k the values correspond to risk levels as shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 comprehensive Risk valuesP k Grading standards
Take M =9,n =9, i.e. 9 recurring periods, 9 rainfall durations. The values of the recurrence period and the duration of rainfall are shown in a table 5, namely: a. The 1 、A 2 、A 3 、A 4 、A 5 、A 6 、A 7 、A 8 、A 9 Corresponding to the reproduction periods 1a,2a,3a,5a,10a,20a,30a,50a,100a, respectively; r 1 、R 2 、R 3 、R 4 、R 5 、R 6 、R 7 、R 8 、R 9 Corresponding to rainfall for 10min,20min,30min,45min,60min,90min,120min,150min and 180min respectively.
TABLE 5 playback period and rainfall duration value-taking table
According to Table 5, then 1a the calculation unit risk value under the scenario of the recurrence periodP k,1 The calculation formula is as follows:
by analogy, the risk value of the computing unit under the situation of obtaining the 2a,3a,5a,10a,20a,30a,50a and 100a reproduction period can be calculatedP k,2 、P k,3 、P k,4 、P k,5 、P k,6 、P k,7 、P k,8 、P k,9 。
The integrated risk value of the computing unitP k The calculation formula is as follows:
(4) Rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment based on different rainfall duration scenes
Also based on computational unitsk，R n (min) calculating the risk value of the unit under the circumstance of rainfall durationV k,n The calculation formula is as follows:
the comprehensive risk value of the computing unit under the condition of considering a plurality of rainfall durationsV k The calculation formula is as follows:
the comparison can be made to show that,V k andP k the same, namely:V k = P k 。
taking values according to the reappearance period and the rainfall duration in the table 5, and calculating the risk value of the unit under the condition of 10min rainfall durationV k,1 The calculation formula is:
by analogy, the risk value of the computing unit under the conditions of 20min,30min,45min,60min,90min,120min,150min and 180min rainfall duration can be obtained through computationV k,2 、V k,3 、V k,4 、V k,5 、V k,6 、V k,7 、V k,8 、V k,9 . The integrated risk value of the computing unitV k The calculation formula is as follows:
in light of the foregoing description of the preferred embodiment of the present invention, many modifications and variations will be apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. The technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the content of the specification, and must be determined according to the scope of the claims.
Claims (7)
1. A city rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scene simulation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, calculating the intensity of rainstorm
Firstly, calculating the urban rainstorm intensity through the rainstorm intensity formula (1)i，
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,ithe intensity of rainstorm is adopted;Tin order to realize the regeneration period of the device,tthe duration of rainfall is;b、n、A 1 andCfitting parameters are urban rainstorm intensity formula fitting parameters and are obtained by fitting urban rainfall observation data;
s2, calculating the depth and grade of the accumulated water
Combining urban rainstorm intensity with runoff production model and digital elevationThe model DEM, the pipe network drainage and the building density are calculated to obtain the ponding depth d of the urban grid, the urban stormwater grade W is determined according to the influence of the ponding depth on the city,
；
s3, evaluating the risk of rainstorm waterlogging based on different reappearance period scenes
First, a city grid is used as a calculation unit, and the number is assumed to bekDuring the reproduction period of the calculation unit ofA m When the rainfall lastsR n The water accumulation rating under the scene is
WhereinkIdentifying the serial number of the computing unit; lower corner markmIn order to identify the recurrence period, the system is provided,
m is the total number set in the recurrence period; lower corner marknIs the mark of the duration of the rainfall,
n is the total number set by the rainfall duration;
then, a calculation unit is obtained by equation (2)kDuring the reproduction periodA m Risk value under scenario
；
Obtaining a calculation Unit by equation (3)kIntegrated risk value under multiple recurrence period scenarios
；
Then, for the comprehensive risk value
Carrying out risk grade division;
step S4, evaluating the risk of rainstorm waterlogging based on different rainfall duration scenes
First, a city grid is used as a calculation unit, and the number is assumed to bekDuring the reproduction period ofA m When the rainfall lastsR n The water accumulation grade under the scene is
，
Then, a calculation unit is obtained by equation (4)kDuring the period of rainfallR n Risk value under scenario
；
Obtaining a calculation Unit by equation (5)kIntegrated risk value under multiple rainfall duration scenariosV k ；
Finally, for the computing unitkIntegrated risk value under multiple rainfall duration scenariosV k And carrying out risk grading.
2. The method for assessing risk of urban rainstorm waterlogging based on situational simulation of claim 1, wherein said method comprisesThe method comprises the following steps: the resume period in step S3A m Set total number M =9,A 1 、A 2 、A 3 、A 4 、A 5 、A 6 、A 7 、A 8 、A 9 Corresponding to the reproduction periods 1a,2a,3a,5a,10a,20a,30a,50a,100a, respectively.
3. The urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: duration of rainfall in step S3R n Set total number N =9,R 1 、R 2 、R 3 、R 4 、R 5 、R 6 、R 7 、R 8 、R 9 Corresponding to rainfall for 10min,20min,30min,45min,60min,90min,120min,150min and 180min respectively.
4. The urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: step S1, calculating parameters in the rainstorm intensity formula (1)b、n、A 1 AndCthe rainfall is obtained by fitting the urban rainfall observation data, or the urban rainstorm intensity formula published by the municipal department is adopted.
5. The urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: in the step S2, the grade W of the urban rainstorm ponding is set according to the following formula (6),
in the formula, d is the depth of accumulated water.
6. The urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: in step S3, according to the comprehensive risk valueP k Conducting Risk ratingsPThe division is carried out according to the formula (7),
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,P k representing a composite risk value; risk ratingPWhen I is expressed as no risk; risk ratingPWhen II, it represents a low risk; risk ratingPAt iii, an intermediate risk is indicated; risk ratingPAt iv, higher risk is indicated; risk ratingPAt v, high risk is indicated.
7. The urban rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulation as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: in step S4, the pair of calculating units is used for calculating the comprehensive risk value under the condition of a plurality of rainfall duration scenesV k Conducting Risk ratingsPThe division is carried out according to the formula (8),
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,V k representing a composite risk value; risk ratingPWhen I is expressed as no risk; risk ratingPWhen II, low risk is indicated; risk ratingPAt iii, an intermediate risk is indicated; risk ratingPAt iv, higher risk is indicated; risk levelPAt v, high risk is indicated.
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