CN114493076A - Method for comprehensively evaluating power grid planning scheme - Google Patents

Method for comprehensively evaluating power grid planning scheme Download PDF

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CN114493076A
CN114493076A CN202111269306.3A CN202111269306A CN114493076A CN 114493076 A CN114493076 A CN 114493076A CN 202111269306 A CN202111269306 A CN 202111269306A CN 114493076 A CN114493076 A CN 114493076A
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孙庆超
张英杰
谢莹华
李婧
王若愚
王卿伟
廖威
杨文锋
舒舟
刘军伟
许峰
刘为雄
苏步芸
吉慧子
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme, which comprises the following steps: step S10, obtaining basic data for calculation and analysis in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated; step S11, determining an evaluation index in a comprehensive evaluation index system for evaluating the power grid planning scheme; step S12, obtaining the weight of each evaluation index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by using an improved AHP method; step S13, analyzing and calculating the parameter values of the technical layer indexes in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated in combination with the corresponding weights thereof, obtaining corresponding score values according to corresponding scoring standards, and calculating upwards step by step to obtain the score of each level index and the integral comprehensive score value of the scheme; and S14, evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value. By implementing the method, the evaluation efficiency and the accuracy of the evaluation result can be greatly improved.

Description

Method for comprehensively evaluating power grid planning scheme
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid planning evaluation, and particularly relates to a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme based on an improved AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process).
Background
The existing power system increasingly presents the dual-high characteristics of 'high-proportion renewable energy access' and 'high-proportion power electronic device access', the power grid is increasingly complicated, the disturbance resistance and the regulation capacity of the system are reduced due to the low inertia, weak disturbance resistance and output randomness of a new energy unit, and the safe operation of the power grid faces new challenges; with the increasing scale and the increasing voltage grade of the alternating current and direct current hybrid power grid in China, the risk of large-area power failure accidents caused by cascading failures is also improved, and the safe operation of the power grid is seriously threatened. Under the new situation that a large amount of new energy is accessed and the external security threats are increased continuously, a strong main network planning scheme of independent self protection and high safety toughness level is required to be constructed, the construction of a tough city is promoted, and the city response risk capability is improved.
At present, most of the existing evaluation indexes of a power grid planning scheme focus on a traditional power system, and with the massive access of new devices such as new energy, a distributed power supply, energy storage equipment, electrified traffic load and the like, the form and the operation mode of a power grid will change greatly in the future, so that new influence and challenge are brought to the comprehensive evaluation of the power grid planning. The existing power grid planning scheme evaluation system is difficult to adapt to a novel power system with high-proportion penetration of new energy, and meanwhile, quantitative evaluation indexes are also lacked in the aspect of the extreme event resistance and disaster resistance guarantee capability of a power grid, so that the safety and toughness level of a city main grid frame under the situation of the novel power system cannot be accurately and completely reflected. Therefore, new indexes and new evaluation methods need to be formulated to accurately evaluate the safety and toughness level of the urban main grid planning scheme in the new environment of the new power system.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme, which can effectively evaluate the safety toughness level of the planned power grid scheme, is easy to realize and has accurate result.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme, which comprises the following steps of:
step S10, obtaining basic data for calculation and analysis in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated; the basic data at least comprises power supply installation, a power grid structure and load demand data in a grid planning scheme;
step S11, determining an evaluation index in a comprehensive evaluation index system for evaluating the power grid planning scheme, wherein the comprehensive evaluation index system comprises three evaluation dimensions and three evaluation levels; wherein the evaluation dimension comprises: abundance, safety and toughness; the evaluation hierarchy comprises: a target layer, a criteria layer and a technology layer; evaluation indexes of different evaluation dimensions are independent from each other, and the evaluation indexes of the technical layer are directly obtained or calculated from basic data of a power grid planning scheme; the criterion layer index is obtained by calculating the technical layer index, and the target layer index is obtained by calculating the criterion layer index;
step S12, obtaining the weight of each evaluation index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by using an improved AHP method;
step S13, analyzing and calculating the parameter values of the technical layer indexes in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated in combination with the corresponding weights thereof, obtaining corresponding score values according to corresponding scoring standards, and calculating upwards step by step to obtain the index scores of each level and the overall comprehensive score value of the scheme;
and S14, evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value.
Preferably, in the comprehensive evaluation index system of step S11, wherein:
the tolerance index is used for representing the capacity of meeting the electric energy transmission requirements of corresponding new energy consumption and load scenes under the steady-state condition of the power grid; the criteria layer indexes comprise four indexes: power supply capacity, transformation capacity, transmission capacity and wiring density; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the power supply capacity comprise: the local power supply and highest power supply load ratio, the energy storage capacity ratio, the clean energy ratio and the clean energy consumption capacity; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the transformation capacity comprise: the capacity-load ratio of a 500kV power grid and the passing rate of a main transformer N-1 are determined; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the transmission capacity comprise: the passing rate of the line N-1 and the passing rate of the line N-2 in the same tower; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the wiring density comprise: the power transmission margin of the channel outside the area, the number of the serial power supply transformer substations exceeding 3 wiring modes and the ratio of the junction stations;
the safety is used for representing the capability of keeping stable, maintaining normal power supply and not losing control in a disturbance state; the corresponding criterion layer evaluation indexes comprise five indexes: short-circuit current level, alternating current system fault stability, direct current system fault stability, alternating current and direct current cascading fault stability and alternating current and direct current interaction influence risk; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the short-circuit current level comprise: the highest short circuit current margin of the plant station; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the fault stability of the alternating current system comprise: the number of fault instability of a three-phase short circuit switch single-circuit line at a leading-out terminal, the number of fault instability of a three-phase short circuit switch same-tower line at the leading-out terminal, the number of switch operation rejection faults instability in a single-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal and the number of switch operation rejection faults instability in the three-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the fault stability of the direct current system comprise: the number of direct-current single-pole latching fault instability and the number of direct-current double-pole latching fault instability are counted; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the stability of the alternating current and direct current cascading failure comprise: the alternating current single-phase short circuit superposed direct current power is reduced to zero fault instability number, and the alternating current three-phase short circuit superposed direct current power is reduced to zero fault instability number; the AC-DC interaction influence risk comprises: the minimum value of the multi-direct-current effective short-circuit ratio and the number of direct-current commutation failure loops caused by single alternating-current short-circuit faults are calculated;
the toughness index is used for representing the capability of coping with sudden disturbance in an uncertain environment of a power grid, adopting active defense measures to reduce the influence of events, ensuring continuous power supply of important loads and quickly recovering the function of the power grid to a normal state; the corresponding criterion layer evaluation indexes comprise three indexes: disaster-resistant guarantee power supply, important users and bottom-protected power grid; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the disaster prevention guarantee power supply comprise: the number of disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies, the number of local black start capability power supplies and the coverage rate of each island operation capability power supply; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the important users comprise: the method comprises the following steps of (1) local disaster prevention guarantee power supply capacity to important user load ratio, important user power supply configuration proportion and important user self-contained emergency power supply configuration proportion; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the bottom-guaranteed power grid comprise: the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid to the total power grid scale, the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid covering the disaster-resistant guarantee power supply and the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid covering the important users.
Preferably, the step S12 further includes:
step S120, respectively calculating the weight of each level index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, specifically: selecting indexes under the same level, estimating the relative importance of the indexes pairwise by adopting a 3-scale method, if the ith index is important relative to the jth index, assigning a value of 2, if the ith index is as important as the jth index, assigning a value of 1, and if the jth index is important relative to the ith index, assigning a value of 0, and obtaining a comparison matrix A of the estimation indexes as follows:
Figure BDA0003327560000000041
in the formula, n represents the index number, and the values of i and j are 1, 2, … … and n; a isijIs the comparison scale of the ith evaluation index and the jth evaluation index, and self-compares aii＝1；
Step S121, constructing an optimal transfer matrix B of the comparison matrix a as follows:
Figure BDA0003327560000000042
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003327560000000043
step S122, constructing a judgment matrix C of the optimal transfer matrix B as follows:
Figure BDA0003327560000000044
in the formula:
Figure BDA0003327560000000045
in step S123, the following equation determines the relative weight W ═ W of each evaluation index of a certain hierarchy index1,…Wi,…,Wn]：
Figure BDA0003327560000000046
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003327560000000047
is a matrixAnd opening the power of n after multiplying the ith row parameter in the C.
Preferably, the step S13 further includes:
step S130, according to the meanings and characteristics of all indexes in the technical layer evaluation indexes, dividing the technical layer evaluation indexes into four types: positive indexes, negative indexes, interval indexes and constraint indexes; and the four types of indexes are respectively graded in a fractional function mode by adopting the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003327560000000051
Figure BDA0003327560000000052
Figure BDA0003327560000000053
Figure BDA0003327560000000054
the formula (1) is suitable for the score calculation of the positive indexes, the formula (2) is suitable for the score calculation of the negative indexes, the formula (3) is suitable for the score calculation of the interval indexes, and the formula (4) is suitable for the score calculation of the constraint indexes; in the formula, x is index data, and a and b are the allowable upper and lower limits of the index x respectively; q1 and q2 are the optimal numerical value intervals of the interval index x, and m is a standard value which must be met by the constraint index;
step S131, calculating parameter values of evaluation indexes of each technical layer in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated, and grading each index in a percentile system piecewise function mode to obtain a grading value of each technical layer evaluation index;
step S132, calculating the comprehensive score value of the criterion layer evaluation index by adopting weighted scoring according to the score value of the technical layer evaluation index and the weight coefficient determined in the step S12, calculating the score value of the target layer evaluation index step by step, and finally obtaining the comprehensive evaluation value of the safety and toughness level of the planning scheme, wherein the adopted formula is as follows:
the upper index score ═ Σ lower index weight × lower index score.
Preferably, in the step S130, the technical indexes of the evaluation layers are classified in the following manner:
the following indices are determined as forward indices: the method comprises the following steps that a local power supply and highest power supply load proportion, an energy storage capacity proportion, a clean energy proportion and a clean energy consumption capacity are adopted, the N-2 passing rate of a same-tower line, the power transmission margin of an extra-area channel, the highest short-circuit current margin of a station, the minimum value of a multi-direct-current effective short-circuit ratio, the number of disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies, the number of local black start power supplies, the power coverage rate of island operation capacity of each area, the ratio of the local disaster-resistant guarantee power supply capacity to the load of important users, the power supply configuration proportion of the important users, the emergency power configuration proportion of the important users, the proportion of a bottom-protected power grid in the total power grid scale, the proportion of the bottom-protected power grid covered disaster-resistant guarantee power supply and the proportion of the bottom-protected power grid covered by the important users; wherein, the larger the index value of the forward index is, the better the index value is;
the following indices were determined as negative indices: the number of the connecting modes of the super 3 seats of the series-supply transformer substation, the proportion of the junction stations, the number of fault instability of a three-phase short-circuit switching same-tower line at a leading-out end, the number of fault instability of a switch in the three-phase short-circuit switching same-tower, the number of fault instability of a switch in the three-phase short-circuit at the leading-out end, the number of direct-current bipolar locking faults, the number of direct-current single-phase short-circuit superposed direct-current power which is reduced to zero fault instability, the number of alternating-current three-phase short-circuit superposed direct-current power which is reduced to zero fault instability, and the index of the number of direct-current commutation failure returns caused by single alternating-current short-circuit faults; wherein, the smaller the index value of the negative index is, the better the index value is;
determining the capacity-load ratio index as a moderate index, wherein the index value is closer to a certain interval and better;
determining the main transformer N-1 passing rate, the line N-1 passing rate and the number of three-phase short circuit single-circuit switching line fault instability at the wire outlet end as constraint indexes; if the constraint condition is met, the score is full, and if the constraint condition is not met, the score is zero.
Preferably, the step S14 further includes:
evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value, and judging that the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme meets a preset requirement if the comprehensive scoring value exceeds a preset threshold value; and if the comprehensive score value is lower than a preset threshold value, performing detailed analysis on three dimensions of the abundance, the safety and the toughness, modifying the planned power grid scheme and performing reevaluation.
The implementation of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme, which can effectively evaluate the safety toughness level of a main grid planning scheme by constructing a safety toughness urban main grid multi-level comprehensive evaluation system from three dimensions of safety, abundance and toughness, and provides effective guidance and important reference for creating a safety toughness urban main grid.
In the embodiment of the invention, an improved AHP method based on a 3-scale method and an optimal transfer matrix is adopted in the aspect of calculation of each level of index weight, so that the influence of subjectivity on the index weight is reduced, the calculation process and the calculation amount are simplified, and the consistency check step is omitted during calculation; the influence of subjectivity on the index weight is reduced, and the evaluation efficiency can be greatly improved so as to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation result.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is within the scope of the present invention for a person skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on the drawings without paying creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic main flow diagram of an embodiment of a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 shows a main flow diagram of an embodiment of a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme according to the present invention. In this embodiment, the method includes the steps of:
step S10, obtaining basic data for calculation and analysis in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated; the basic data at least comprises power supply installation, a power grid structure and load demand data in a grid planning scheme; generally, the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated may be an urban receiving end power grid.
Step S11, determining an evaluation index in a comprehensive evaluation index system for evaluating the power grid planning scheme, wherein the comprehensive evaluation index system comprises three evaluation dimensions and three evaluation levels; wherein evaluating the dimensionality comprises: abundance, safety and toughness; the evaluation hierarchy comprises: a target layer, a criteria layer and a technology layer; evaluation indexes of different evaluation dimensions are independent from each other, the technical layer evaluation index is a concrete index which can not be decomposed any more, and the technical layer evaluation index is generally obtained directly or calculated from basic data of a power grid planning scheme; the criterion layer index is obtained by calculating the technical layer index, and the target layer index is obtained by calculating the criterion layer index;
more specifically, in one example of the invention, a robust power grid with "independent self-protection and high safety toughness level" is taken as an overall target, a comprehensive evaluation index system of the safety toughness of a power grid planning scheme is constructed, indexes are decomposed layer by layer around three evaluation dimensions of abundance, safety and toughness, a target layer, a criterion layer and a technical layer are constructed, the target layer comprises 3 indexes, the criterion layer comprises 12 indexes, and the technical layer comprises 31 indexes.
The following table shows a hierarchical table of a comprehensive evaluation index system according to the present invention:
Figure BDA0003327560000000081
Figure BDA0003327560000000091
as can be seen from the above table, in this specific example, in the comprehensive evaluation index system of step S11, wherein:
the tolerance index is used for representing the capacity of meeting the electric energy transmission requirements of corresponding new energy consumption and load scenes under the steady-state condition of the power grid; the criteria layer indexes comprise four indexes: power supply capacity, transformation capacity, transmission capacity and wiring density; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the power supply capacity comprise: the local power supply and the highest power supply load ratio, the energy storage capacity ratio, the clean energy ratio and the clean energy consumption capacity; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the transformation capacity comprise: the capacity-load ratio of a 500kV power grid and the passing rate of a main transformer N-1 are determined; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the transmission capacity comprise: the passing rate of the line N-1 and the passing rate of the line N-2 in the same tower; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the wiring density comprise: the method comprises the following steps of (1) judging the power transmission margin of an out-of-area channel, the number of connection modes of more than 3 series-supply transformer substations and the hub station occupation ratio;
the safety is used for representing the capability of keeping stable, maintaining normal power supply and not losing control in a disturbance state; the corresponding criterion layer evaluation indexes comprise five indexes: short-circuit current level, alternating current system fault stability, direct current system fault stability, alternating current and direct current cascading fault stability and alternating current and direct current interaction influence risk; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the short-circuit current level comprise: the highest short circuit current margin of the plant station; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the fault stability of the alternating current system comprise: the number of fault instability of a three-phase short circuit switch single-circuit line at a leading-out terminal, the number of fault instability of a three-phase short circuit switch same-tower line at the leading-out terminal, the number of switch operation rejection faults instability in a single-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal and the number of switch operation rejection faults instability in the three-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the fault stability of the direct current system comprise: the number of direct-current single-pole latching fault instability and the number of direct-current double-pole latching fault instability are counted; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the stability of the alternating current and direct current cascading failure comprise: the alternating current single-phase short circuit superposed direct current power is reduced to zero fault instability number, and the alternating current three-phase short circuit superposed direct current power is reduced to zero fault instability number; the AC-DC interaction influence risk comprises: the minimum value of the multi-direct-current effective short-circuit ratio and the number of direct-current commutation failure loops caused by single alternating-current short-circuit faults are calculated;
the toughness index is used for representing the capability of coping with sudden disturbance in an uncertain environment of a power grid, adopting active defense measures to reduce the influence of events, ensuring continuous power supply of important loads and quickly recovering the function of the power grid to a normal state; the corresponding criterion layer evaluation indexes comprise three indexes: disaster-resistant guarantee power supply, important users and bottom-protected power grid; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the disaster-resistant guarantee power supply comprise: the number of disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies, the number of local black start capability power supplies and the coverage rate of each island operation capability power supply; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the important users comprise: the method comprises the following steps of (1) local disaster prevention guarantee power supply capacity to important user load ratio, important user power supply configuration proportion and important user self-contained emergency power supply configuration proportion; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the bottom-guaranteed power grid comprise: the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid to the total power grid scale, the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid covering the disaster-resistant guarantee power supply and the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid covering the important users.
Step S12, obtaining the weight of each evaluation index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by using an improved AHP method; in this step, the weight coefficient of each level index can be determined by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process; obtaining a comparison matrix of the evaluation indexes by adopting the relative importance of every two evaluation indexes of a 3-scale method, constructing an optimal transfer matrix of the comparison matrix, constructing a judgment matrix of the optimal transfer matrix, and calculating the relative weight of each evaluation index of a certain level of indexes according to the judgment matrix.
In a specific example, the step S12 specifically includes:
step S120, respectively calculating the weight of each level index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, specifically: selecting indexes under the same level, estimating the relative importance of the indexes pairwise by adopting a 3-scale method, if the ith index is important relative to the jth index, assigning a value of 2, if the ith index is as important as the jth index, assigning a value of 1, and if the jth index is important relative to the ith index, assigning a value of 0, and obtaining a comparison matrix A of the estimation indexes as follows:
Figure BDA0003327560000000101
in the formula, n represents the index number, and the values of i and j are 1, 2, … … and n; a isijFor the comparison scale of the ith evaluation index and the jth evaluation index, self-comparison aii＝1；
Step S121, constructing an optimal transfer matrix B of the comparison matrix a as follows:
Figure BDA0003327560000000102
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003327560000000103
step S122, constructing a judgment matrix C of the optimal transfer matrix B as follows:
Figure BDA0003327560000000111
in the formula:
Figure BDA0003327560000000112
step S123, determining the relative evaluation indexes of the indexes of a certain level according to the following formulaWeight W ═ W1,…Wi,…,Wn]：
Figure BDA0003327560000000113
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003327560000000114
the ith row parameter in the matrix C is multiplied and then is opened to the power of n.
Step S13, analyzing and calculating the parameter values of the technical layer indexes in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated in combination with the corresponding weights thereof, obtaining corresponding score values according to corresponding scoring standards, and calculating upwards step by step to obtain the index scores of each level and the overall comprehensive score value of the scheme;
in a specific example, the step S13 further includes:
step S130, according to the meanings and characteristics of all indexes in the technical layer evaluation indexes, dividing the technical layer evaluation indexes into four types: positive indexes, negative indexes, interval indexes and constraint indexes; it will be appreciated that in the present method, different scoring criteria may be predetermined for different types of indicators.
In one example, in the step S130, the technical indexes of the evaluation layers are classified in the following manner:
the following indices are determined as forward indices: the method comprises the following steps that a local power supply and highest power supply load proportion, an energy storage capacity proportion, a clean energy proportion and a clean energy consumption capacity are adopted, the N-2 passing rate of a same-tower line, the power transmission margin of an extra-area channel, the highest short-circuit current margin of a station, the minimum value of a multi-direct-current effective short-circuit ratio, the number of disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies, the number of local black start power supplies, the power coverage rate of island operation capacity of each area, the ratio of the local disaster-resistant guarantee power supply capacity to the load of important users, the power supply configuration proportion of the important users, the emergency power configuration proportion of the important users, the proportion of a bottom-protected power grid in the total power grid scale, the proportion of the bottom-protected power grid covered disaster-resistant guarantee power supply and the proportion of the bottom-protected power grid covered by the important users; wherein, the larger the index value of the forward index is, the better the index value is;
the following indices were determined as negative indices: the number of the connection modes of the super 3 seats of the series transformer substation, the proportion of the junction stations, the number of fault instability of a three-phase short-circuit switching tower line at a leading-out end, the number of fault instability of a switch failure in the three-phase short circuit at the leading-out end, the number of fault instability of a direct-current bipolar latch-up fault, the number of fault instability of an alternating-current single-phase short circuit superposed direct-current power reduced to zero, the number of fault instability of the alternating-current three-phase short circuit superposed direct-current power reduced to zero, and the index of the number of direct-current commutation failure returns caused by single alternating-current short circuit fault; wherein, the smaller the index value of the negative index is, the better the index value is;
determining the capacity-load ratio index as a moderate index, wherein the index value is closer to a certain interval and better;
determining the main transformer N-1 passing rate, the line N-1 passing rate and the number of three-phase short circuit single-circuit switching line fault instability at the wire outlet end as constraint indexes; if the constraint condition is met, the score is full, and if the constraint condition is not met, the score is zero.
In step S130, the four types of indexes are further scored in the form of a segmentation function in percentage by using the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003327560000000121
Figure BDA0003327560000000122
Figure BDA0003327560000000123
Figure BDA0003327560000000124
the formula (1) is suitable for the score calculation of the positive indexes, the formula (2) is suitable for the score calculation of the negative indexes, the formula (3) is suitable for the score calculation of the interval indexes, and the formula (4) is suitable for the score calculation of the constraint indexes; in the formula, x is index data, and a and b are the allowable upper and lower limits of the index x respectively; q1 and q2 are the optimal numerical value intervals of the interval index x, and m is a standard value which must be met by the constraint index;
step S131, calculating parameter values of evaluation indexes of each technical layer in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated, and grading each index in a percentile system piecewise function mode to obtain a grading value of each technical layer evaluation index;
step S132, calculating the comprehensive score value of the criterion layer evaluation index by adopting weighted scoring according to the score value of the technical layer evaluation index and the weight coefficient determined in the step S12, calculating the score value of the target layer evaluation index step by step, and finally obtaining the comprehensive evaluation value of the safety and toughness level of the planning scheme, wherein the adopted formula is as follows:
the upper index score ═ Σ lower index weight × lower index score.
And S14, evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value.
In a specific example, the step S14 further includes:
evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value, and judging that the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme meets a preset requirement if the comprehensive scoring value exceeds a preset threshold value; and if the comprehensive score value is lower than a preset threshold value, performing detailed analysis on three dimensions of the abundance, the safety and the toughness, modifying the planned power grid scheme and performing reevaluation. It can be understood that the higher the comprehensive score value is, the higher the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme is, that is, the planned power grid reaches a higher level in the three aspects of the abundance, the safety and the toughness. If the comprehensive score value is low, the three dimensions of the abundance, the safety and the toughness are respectively analyzed in detail, corresponding defects are searched, certain measures are taken on the power grid planning level, and therefore the safety and toughness level of the power grid is improved.
The implementation of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme, which can effectively evaluate the safety toughness level of a main grid planning scheme by constructing a safety toughness urban main grid multi-level comprehensive evaluation system from three dimensions of safety, abundance and toughness, and provides effective guidance and important reference for creating a safety toughness urban main grid.
In the embodiment of the invention, an improved AHP method based on a 3-scale method and an optimal transfer matrix is adopted in the aspect of calculating the index weight of each level, so that the influence of the subjectivity on the index weight is reduced, the calculation process and the calculation amount are simplified, and the consistency check step is omitted during calculation; the influence of subjectivity on the index weight is reduced, and the evaluation efficiency can be greatly improved so as to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation result.
While the invention has been described in connection with what is presently considered to be the most practical and preferred embodiment, it is to be understood that the invention is not to be limited to the disclosed embodiment, but on the contrary, is intended to cover various modifications and equivalent arrangements included within the spirit and scope of the appended claims.

Claims (7)

1. A method for comprehensively evaluating a power grid planning scheme is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S10, obtaining basic data for calculation and analysis in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated; the basic data at least comprises power supply installation, a power grid structure and load demand data in a grid planning scheme;
step S11, determining an evaluation index in a comprehensive evaluation index system for evaluating the power grid planning scheme, wherein the comprehensive evaluation index system comprises three evaluation dimensions and three evaluation levels; wherein the evaluation dimensions include: abundance, safety and toughness; the evaluation hierarchy comprises: a target layer, a criteria layer and a technology layer;
step S12, obtaining the weight of each evaluation index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by using an improved AHP method;
step S13, analyzing and calculating the parameter values of the technical layer indexes in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated in combination with the corresponding weights thereof, obtaining corresponding score values according to corresponding scoring standards, and calculating upwards step by step to obtain the score of each level index and the integral comprehensive score value of the scheme;
and S14, evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step S11, the evaluation indexes of different evaluation dimensions are independent of each other, and the technical layer evaluation indexes are obtained directly or calculated from basic data of the power grid planning scheme; the criterion layer index is calculated by the technical layer index, and the target layer index is calculated by the criterion layer index.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein in the comprehensive evaluation index system of step S11, wherein:
the tolerance index is used for representing the capacity of meeting the electric energy transmission requirements of corresponding new energy consumption and load scenes under the steady-state condition of the power grid; the criteria layer indexes comprise four indexes: power supply capacity, transformation capacity, transmission capacity and wiring density; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the power supply capacity comprise: the local power supply and highest power supply load ratio, the energy storage capacity ratio, the clean energy ratio and the clean energy consumption capacity; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the transformation capacity comprise: the capacity-load ratio of a 500kV power grid and the passing rate of a main transformer N-1 are determined; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the transmission capacity comprise: the passing rate of the line N-1 and the passing rate of the line N-2 in the same tower; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the wiring density comprise: the power transmission margin of the channel outside the area, the number of the serial power supply transformer substations exceeding 3 wiring modes and the ratio of the junction stations;
the safety is used for representing the capability of keeping stable, maintaining normal power supply and not losing control in a disturbance state; the corresponding criterion layer evaluation indexes comprise five indexes: short-circuit current level, alternating current system fault stability, direct current system fault stability, alternating current and direct current cascading fault stability and alternating current and direct current interaction influence risk; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the short-circuit current level comprise: the highest short circuit current margin of the plant station; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the fault stability of the alternating current system comprise: the number of fault instability of a three-phase short circuit switch single-circuit line at a leading-out terminal, the number of fault instability of a three-phase short circuit switch same-tower line at the leading-out terminal, the number of switch operation rejection faults instability in a single-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal and the number of switch operation rejection faults instability in a three-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the fault stability of the direct current system comprise: the number of direct-current single-pole latching fault instability and the number of direct-current double-pole latching fault instability are counted; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the stability of the alternating current and direct current cascading failure comprise: the alternating current single-phase short circuit superposed direct current power is reduced to zero fault instability number, and the alternating current three-phase short circuit superposed direct current power is reduced to zero fault instability number; the AC-DC interaction influence risk comprises: the minimum value of the multi-direct-current effective short-circuit ratio and the number of direct-current commutation failure loops caused by single alternating-current short-circuit faults are calculated;
the toughness index is used for representing the capability of coping with sudden disturbance in an uncertain environment of a power grid, adopting active defense measures to reduce the influence of events, ensuring continuous power supply of important loads and quickly recovering the function of the power grid to a normal state; the corresponding criterion layer evaluation indexes comprise three indexes: disaster resistance guarantees power supply, important users and bottom-protected power grid; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the disaster-resistant guarantee power supply comprise: the number of disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies, the number of local black start capability power supplies and the coverage rate of each island operation capability power supply; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the important users comprise: the method comprises the following steps of (1) enabling the capacity of a local disaster prevention guarantee power supply to be in a ratio to the load of an important user, configuring the power supply configuration proportion of the important user, and configuring the self-contained emergency power supply configuration proportion of the important user; the technical layer evaluation indexes corresponding to the bottom-guaranteed power grid comprise: the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid to the total power grid scale, the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid covering the disaster-resistant guarantee power supply and the proportion of the bottom-protection power grid covering the important users.
4. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the step S12 further comprises:
step S120, respectively calculating the weight of each level index in the comprehensive evaluation index system by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, specifically: selecting indexes under the same level, estimating the relative importance of the indexes in pairs by adopting a 3-scale method, if the ith index is important relative to the jth index, assigning a value of 2, if the ith index is as important as the jth index, assigning a value of 1, and if the jth index is important relative to the ith index, assigning a value of 0, and obtaining a comparison matrix A of the estimation indexes as follows:
Figure FDA0003327559990000031
in the formula, n represents the index number, and the values of i and j are 1, 2, … … and n; a isijIs a comparison scale of the ith evaluation index and the jth evaluation index, and is compared with the ith evaluation index by itselfii＝1；
Step S121, constructing an optimal transfer matrix B of the comparison matrix a as follows:
Figure FDA0003327559990000032
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003327559990000033
step S122, constructing a judgment matrix C of the optimal transfer matrix B as follows:
Figure FDA0003327559990000034
in the formula:
Figure FDA0003327559990000035
in step S123, the following equation determines the relative weight W ═ W of each evaluation index of a certain hierarchy index1,…Wi,…,Wn]：
Figure FDA0003327559990000036
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003327559990000037
the ith row parameter in the matrix C is multiplied and then is opened to the power of n.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step S13 further comprises:
step S130, according to the meanings and the characteristics of all indexes in the technical layer evaluation indexes, dividing the technical layer evaluation indexes into four types: positive indexes, negative indexes, interval indexes and constraint indexes; and the four types of indexes are respectively graded in a fractional function mode by adopting the following formulas:
Figure FDA0003327559990000041
Figure FDA0003327559990000042
Figure FDA0003327559990000043
Figure FDA0003327559990000044
the formula (1) is suitable for the score calculation of the positive indexes, the formula (2) is suitable for the score calculation of the negative indexes, the formula (3) is suitable for the score calculation of the interval indexes, and the formula (4) is suitable for the score calculation of the constraint indexes; in the formula, x is index data, and a and b are the allowable upper and lower limits of the index x respectively; q1, q2 is the optimal numerical value interval of the interval index x, and m is a standard value which must be met by the constraint index;
step S131, calculating parameter values of evaluation indexes of each technical layer in the power grid planning scheme to be evaluated, and grading each index in a percentile system piecewise function mode to obtain a grade value of each technical layer evaluation index;
step S132, calculating the comprehensive grade value of the criterion layer evaluation index by adopting weighted scoring according to the grade value of the technical layer evaluation index and the weight coefficient determined in the step S12, calculating the grade value of the target layer evaluation index step by step, and finally obtaining the comprehensive evaluation value of the safety and toughness level of the planning scheme, wherein the adopted formula is as follows:
the upper index score ═ Σ lower index weight × lower index score.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein in the step S130, the technical indicators of the evaluation layers are classified in the following manner:
the following indices are determined as forward indices: the method comprises the following steps that a local power supply and highest power supply load proportion, an energy storage capacity proportion, a clean energy proportion and a clean energy consumption capacity are adopted, the N-2 passing rate of a same-tower line, the power transmission margin of an extra-area channel, the highest short-circuit current margin of a station, the minimum value of a multi-direct-current effective short-circuit ratio, the number of disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies, the number of local black-start capacity power supplies, the power coverage rate of island operation capacity of each area, the ratio of the capacity of the local disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies to the load of important users, the power supply configuration proportion of the important users, the self-standby emergency power configuration proportion of the important users, the proportion of a bottom-protecting power grid to the total power grid scale, the proportion of the bottom-protecting power grid to the disaster-resistant guarantee power supplies and the proportion of the bottom-protecting power grid to the important users; wherein, the larger the index value of the forward index is, the better the index value is;
the following indices were determined as negative indices: the number of the connection modes of the super 3 seats of the series transformer substation, the proportion of the junction stations, the number of fault instability of a three-phase short-circuit switching tower line at a leading-out terminal, the number of fault instability of a switch refused to move in the three-phase short circuit at the leading-out terminal, the number of fault instability of a direct-current bipolar latch-up fault, the number of fault instability of an alternating-current single-phase short circuit superposed direct-current power, the number of fault instability of the alternating-current three-phase short circuit superposed direct-current power, and the number of return indexes of direct-current commutation failure caused by single alternating-current short circuit fault; wherein, the smaller the index value of the negative index is, the better the index value is;
determining the capacity-load ratio index as a moderate index, wherein the index value is closer to a certain interval and better;
determining the main transformer N-1 passing rate, the line N-1 passing rate and the number of three-phase short circuit switching single circuit fault instability at the outlet end as constraint indexes; if the constraint condition is met, the score is full, and if the constraint condition is not met, the score is zero.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the step S14 further comprises:
evaluating the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme according to the integral comprehensive scoring value, and judging that the safety toughness level of the power grid planning scheme meets a preset requirement if the comprehensive scoring value exceeds a preset threshold value; and if the comprehensive score value is lower than a preset threshold value, performing detailed analysis on three dimensions of the abundance, the safety and the toughness, modifying the planned power grid scheme and performing reevaluation.
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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115146939A (en) * 2022-06-24 2022-10-04 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Power grid engineering project comprehensive technical level pre-evaluation method

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115146939A (en) * 2022-06-24 2022-10-04 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 Power grid engineering project comprehensive technical level pre-evaluation method

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