CN114139946A - Risk assessment method, system, equipment and medium for power transmission line - Google Patents
Risk assessment method, system, equipment and medium for power transmission line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk assessment method, a system, equipment and a medium of a power transmission line, wherein the risk assessment method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical fault data of a power transmission line in a target area, wherein the historical fault data comprises: failure rate, operating life, failure loss and failure outage duration; obtaining an evaluation result of the running state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and constructing a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area; acquiring historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area, and carrying out statistical analysis on the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases; and determining the risk grade of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area. The invention can adopt the quantized risk value to judge the risk of the power transmission line and the risk possibly caused by the power transmission line, and further provides a basis for the state maintenance of the power transmission and transformation equipment, thereby formulating a corresponding maintenance scheme.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a method, a system, equipment and a medium for assessing the risk of a power transmission line.
Background
With the advance of power grid construction, the power grid in China can be built into an extra-large power grid with the highest voltage level, the largest scale and the most complex structure in the world. However, as the scale of power systems is rapidly increasing. The requirements of users on the reliability of power supply are higher and higher, the influence and loss on production and life caused by power failure accidents and unplanned temporary maintenance are larger and larger, and the guarantee of safe and reliable operation of power equipment is more and more important.
In addition, for the overhead transmission line, due to the complexity, variability and uncertainty of the surrounding environment, line faults caused by severe meteorological disasters are difficult to predict, and line fault positioning cannot be realized in time, so that more complex and heavy overhauling work is brought. Therefore, it is necessary to perform related research on risk assessment of the overhead transmission line, analyze and assess the risk state of the line from the aspect of the line operation channel environment, and provide a corresponding inspection strategy, and currently, the risk assessment aiming at the state of the transmission line assets lacks an effective basis and method, and the operation and maintenance and repair plan of the related line is made basically by depending on manual experience, and lacks the scientificity and accuracy of the opposite sex.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is: the method, the system, the equipment and the medium for evaluating the risk of the power transmission line are provided, the risk of the power transmission line and the risk possibly caused by the power transmission line are judged by adopting a quantized risk value, and then a basis is provided for the state maintenance of the power transmission and transformation equipment, so that a corresponding maintenance scheme is prepared.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a risk assessment method for a power transmission line, comprising:
acquiring historical fault data of a power transmission line in a target area, wherein the historical fault data comprises: failure rate, operating life, failure loss and failure outage duration;
obtaining an evaluation result of the running state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and constructing a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area;
acquiring historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area, and carrying out statistical analysis on the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases;
and determining the risk grade of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area.
Further, after determining the risk level of the transmission line in the target area, the method further comprises the following steps: and formulating a corresponding state maintenance scheme of the power transmission line according to the risk grade of the power transmission line in the target area.
Further, the evaluation result of the operation state of the power transmission line in the target area is obtained, and a function model of the evaluation result of the operation state of the power transmission line and the fault rate is constructed by combining the fault rate, and the following calculation formula is adopted:
P(t)＝K×e-C×ISE
in the formula, ISE represents a state evaluation score of the component, K represents a scale coefficient, C represents a curvature coefficient, and p (t) represents a failure occurrence probability of the component.
Further, the historical fault case of the power transmission line in the target area is obtained, the loss degree caused by the historical fault case is statistically analyzed, and the following calculation formula is adopted:
where j represents the loss level, IOFjkIndicating the degree of loss value, POFjkRepresenting loss probability, FkIndicating the degree of loss.
Further, the determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area includes:
acquiring the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area;
obtaining a loss degree value of the historical fault case according to the loss degree of the historical fault case;
and determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area and the loss degree value of the historical fault case.
The invention also provides a risk assessment system of the power transmission line, which comprises: the device comprises a data acquisition module, a construction module, a statistical analysis module and an evaluation module, wherein the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical fault data of the power transmission line in the target area, wherein the historical fault data comprises: failure rate, operating life, failure loss and failure outage duration;
the building module is used for obtaining an evaluation result of the running state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and building a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area;
the statistical analysis module is used for acquiring historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area and carrying out statistical analysis on the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases;
and the evaluation module is used for determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area.
Further, the risk assessment system further comprises a maintenance module, and the maintenance module is used for making a corresponding state maintenance scheme of the power transmission line according to the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area.
Further, the construction module and the statistical analysis module specifically adopt the following calculation formula:
where j represents the loss level, IOFjkIndicating the degree of loss value, POFjkRepresenting loss probability, FkIndicating the degree of loss.
The present invention also provides a computer terminal device, comprising: one or more processors; a memory coupled to the processor for storing one or more programs; when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors are caused to implement the risk assessment method for the power transmission line as described in any one of the above.
The invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, implements a method for risk assessment of a power transmission line as defined in any one of the above.
Compared with the prior art, the risk assessment method, the risk assessment system, the risk assessment equipment and the risk assessment medium of the power transmission line have the advantages that:
the method combines related research results and sample data to use the power transmission line as a research object, deduces the functional relation of the equipment operation state and the fault probability thereof by sample analysis and adopting a reasonable statistical model, and sets parameters by combining the actual condition of the local area power grid, the climatic environment and other characteristics. Meanwhile, the risk value of the power transmission line is calculated comprehensively according to the degree and the probability of loss caused by different accidents by combining the investigation and analysis of fault accidents. The model gives consideration to the actual characteristics of different regions, and simultaneously quantifies the risk value by combining two aspects of risk occurrence probability and risk occurrence loss degree, thereby providing important basis for reasonably arranging maintenance plans for power grid companies.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk assessment method for a power transmission line provided by the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a risk assessment system for a power transmission line provided by the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are for convenience of description only and are not intended as limitations on the order in which the steps are performed.
It is to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in the specification of the present invention and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising" indicate the presence of the described features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
The term "and/or" refers to any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items and includes such combinations.
As shown in fig. 1, the risk assessment method for the power transmission line at least includes steps S1-S4, and includes the following specific steps:
s1, obtaining historical fault data of the power transmission line in the target area, wherein the historical fault data comprises: failure rate, operating life, failure loss, and length of failure outage.
Specifically, characteristics of the coastal area and an actual state of the power transmission line need to be investigated and analyzed, the coastal area is a region with a lot of typhoons, the power transmission line is damaged in different degrees and even has a large-area power failure when the typhoons land each time, safety and stability of a power system are seriously affected, and meanwhile, air in the coastal area has certain corrosivity and has certain influence on the service life of equipment, so that historical fault information of the power transmission line is counted and used as basic data, wherein the historical fault information comprises fault rates, operating years, fault loss, fault power failure time length and the like of different lines.
And S2, obtaining the evaluation result of the running state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and constructing a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area.
It should be noted that the grid internal system is a system developed by a grid company, and can directly pass through the operating states of the transmission lines in different regions from the internal system, and evaluate the operating states to obtain corresponding evaluation scores.
It should be noted that, under a certain condition, the statistical failure rate can truly reflect the probability of the equipment failure, so that regression analysis can be performed on the statistical failure rate of the equipment and the state evaluation result of the equipment to research the correlation between the statistical failure rate of the equipment and the state evaluation result of the equipment. Through the regression analysis result, the fault probability of the equipment can be calculated based on the health state of the equipment, basic data is provided for equipment risk assessment, and an important basis is provided for accurately grasping the operation condition of the equipment. The specific operation principle is as follows:
1. the statistical principle comprises the following steps: the larger the number of samples is, the more the true value of the component fault occurrence probability can be approached; samples of various states are included as much as possible; ensuring the sample data to be real and reliable;
2. the statistical steps comprise: defining a statistical range; determining a statistical time; determining statistical equipment; and evaluating the state of the equipment in the statistical area.
Counting the equipment number of the fault occurrence in the counting area, and classifying the equipment number according to the fault component and the state score before the fault occurrence (more than one fault component can be counted repeatedly); and (3) calculating the fault occurrence probability, wherein a specific calculation formula is as follows:
the failure occurrence probability of a component is closely related to the state evaluation result thereof, and can be expressed as the following formula.
P(t)＝K×e-C×ISE
In the formula, ISE represents a State Evaluation score (Index of State Evaluation) of the component, K represents a proportionality coefficient, C represents a curvature coefficient, and P represents a failure occurrence Probability (Probability) of the component (calculated as 1 when the P value is greater than 1).
The values of K and C are calculated by the least square method.
In particular, the least squares method (also known as the least squares method) is a mathematical optimization technique. It finds the best functional match of the data by minimizing the sum of the squares of the errors. Unknown data can be easily obtained by the least square method, and the sum of squares of errors between these obtained data and actual data is minimized.
The least squares method can also be used for curve fitting, and other optimization problems can also be expressed by the least squares method by minimizing energy or maximizing entropy.
Let (x, y) be a pair of observations, and x ═ x1，x2，…，xn]T∈RnAnd y-R satisfies the following theoretical function:
y＝f(x，ω)
wherein w ═ ω1，w2，…，wn]TAre parameters to be determined.
To find the optimal estimate of the parameter ω of the function f (x, w), for a given set of m observation data (x)i，yi) (i ═ 1, 2, …, m), solving an objective function
Parameter omega of minimum valuei(i ═ 1, 2, …, n). This type of problem to solve is called the least squares problem and the geometric language of the method to solve the problem is called the least squares fit.
For the unconstrained optimization problem, the general form of the least squares method is:
wherein L isi(x) (i ═ 1, 2, …, m) is referred to as the residual function. When L isi(x) When (i ═ 1, 2, …, m) is a linear function of x, it is called a linear least squares problem, otherwise it is called a nonlinear least squares problem.
And S3, acquiring historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area, and carrying out statistical analysis on the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases.
Specifically, by analyzing the accident case of the power transmission line and combining various factors such as safety, cost, environment and the like, the influence of potential risks on the aspects of society, economy and the like is quantified, and the method is used for evaluating the consequences of faults of different power transmission lines on the aspects of power grid reliability, personal safety, equipment damage, influence on the environment and the like. And meanwhile, carrying out statistical analysis by combining data.
Note that, the degree of loss is divided as follows:
1. equipment damage: the degree of damage to the equipment can be graded as: general equipment damage accidents, major equipment damage accidents and extra-large equipment damage accidents.
2. Personal safety: the degree of personal safety loss can be classified as: light injury, heavy injury, death.
3. Power supply reliability: the method is characterized in that the faults are classified according to equipment outage time, wherein the faults cause that power transmission and transformation equipment is forced to be shut down, power supply reliability is influenced, and a power grid is enabled to be operated unstably.
4. Social impact: the social influence refers to adverse social influence on power enterprises caused by malignant events such as power failure, pollution and fire, and causes social dissatisfaction. The degree of loss of social impact can be classified into general, major and extra-major social impacts.
The statistical sample is shown in table 1 according to the loss degree value principle of four factors of fault components, equipment damage, personal safety, power supply reliability and social influence.
TABLE 1 loss degree principle setting Table
Specifically, the degree of loss of a certain element can be expressed as:
in the formula: j-1-3-represents the element loss degree rating, IOFjkIndicates the loss degree value (In) of the element at a certain leveldex of Failure)，POFjkIndicates the Probability of loss of elements at a certain level (Probability of Failure), FkIndicating the degree of loss of a certain element.
Specifically, after counting all samples, the loss probability of the part is calculated as follows.
In the formula, njkIndicates the number of failures of a component at a certain loss level, niIndicating the total number of failures, POFjkIndicates the probability of an element at a certain loss level, j indicates the loss element, and k indicates the loss level of the element.
And S4, determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area.
Specifically, risk evaluation is carried out on the power transmission line equipment in a quantitative method, multiple losses can be caused by one fault of the power transmission line equipment, and four factors of equipment damage, personal safety, power supply reliability and social influence are considered in the loss degree of the assets. The risk evaluation takes a risk value as an index, comprehensively considers the effects of the asset loss degree and the equipment fault occurrence probability, comprehensively determines the actual risk level of the line according to the corresponding transmission line fault rate determination method and the fault loss degree statistical analysis, and sorts according to the magnitude of the risk value after determining the risk value, thereby providing a basis for the state maintenance decision of the transmission line.
In an embodiment of the present invention, after determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area, the method further includes: and formulating a corresponding state maintenance scheme of the power transmission line according to the risk grade of the power transmission line in the target area.
In one embodiment of the present invention, the evaluation result of the operating state of the power transmission line in the target area is obtained, and a function model of the evaluation result of the operating state of the power transmission line and the fault rate is constructed by combining the fault rate, and the following calculation formula is adopted:
P(t)＝K×e-C×ISE
in the formula, ISE represents a state evaluation score of the component, K represents a scale coefficient, C represents a curvature coefficient, and p (t) represents a failure occurrence probability of the component.
In one embodiment of the present invention, the obtaining of the historical fault case of the power transmission line in the target area, and the statistical analysis of the loss degree caused by the historical fault case, adopts the following calculation formula:
where j represents the loss level, IOFjkIndicating the degree of loss value, POFjkRepresenting loss probability, FkIndicating the degree of loss.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area includes:
acquiring the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area;
obtaining a loss degree value of the historical fault case according to the loss degree of the historical fault case;
and determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area and the loss degree value of the historical fault case.
Compared with the prior art, the risk assessment method for the power transmission line has the beneficial effects that:
the method combines related research results and sample data to use the power transmission line as a research object, deduces the functional relation of the equipment operation state and the fault probability thereof by sample analysis and adopting a reasonable statistical model, and sets parameters by combining the actual condition of the local area power grid, the climatic environment and other characteristics. Meanwhile, the risk value of the power transmission line is calculated comprehensively according to the degree and the probability of loss caused by different accidents by combining the investigation and analysis of fault accidents. The model gives consideration to the actual characteristics of different regions, and simultaneously quantifies the risk value by combining two aspects of risk occurrence probability and risk occurrence loss degree, thereby providing important basis for reasonably arranging maintenance plans for power grid companies.
As shown in fig. 2, the present invention further provides a risk assessment system 200 for a power transmission line, including: the system comprises a data acquisition module 201, a construction module 202, a statistical analysis module 203 and an evaluation module 204, wherein;
the data obtaining module 201 is configured to obtain historical fault data of a power transmission line in a target area, where the historical fault data includes: failure rate, operating life, failure loss and failure outage duration;
the building module 202 is configured to obtain an evaluation result of the operation state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and build a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area;
the statistical analysis module 203 is configured to obtain historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area, and statistically analyze the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases;
and the evaluation module 204 is configured to determine a risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the failure rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the risk assessment system further includes a maintenance module, configured to make a corresponding state maintenance scheme for the power transmission line according to a risk level of the power transmission line in the target area.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the construction module and the statistical analysis module specifically use the following calculation formula:
where j represents the loss level, IOFjkIndicating the degree of loss value, POFjkTo representLoss probability, FkIndicating the degree of loss.
The present invention also provides a computer terminal device, comprising: one or more processors; a memory coupled to the processor for storing one or more programs; when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors are caused to implement the risk assessment method for the power transmission line as described in any one of the above.
It should be noted that the processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general-purpose processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf programmable gate array (FPGA) or other programmable logic device, a discrete gate or transistor logic device, a discrete hardware component, etc., the general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor, or the processor may be any conventional processor, the processor is a control center of the terminal device, and various interfaces and lines are used to connect various parts of the terminal device.
The memory mainly includes a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area can store an operating system, an application program required by at least one function, and the like, and the data storage area can store related data and the like. In addition, the memory may be a high-speed random access memory, a non-volatile memory such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) card, a flash memory card (FlashCard), and the like, or other volatile solid-state memory device.
It should be noted that the terminal device may include, but is not limited to, a processor and a memory, and those skilled in the art will understand that the terminal device is only an example and does not constitute a limitation of the terminal device, and may include more or less components, or combine some components, or different components.
The invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, implements a method for risk assessment of a power transmission line as defined in any one of the above.
It should be noted that the computer program may be divided into one or more modules/units (e.g., computer program) which are stored in the memory and executed by the processor to implement the present invention. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, which are used for describing the execution process of the computer program in the terminal device.
The above-mentioned embodiments are provided to further explain the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only examples of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. It will be understood that any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like which come within the spirit and principle of the invention are deemed to be within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A risk assessment method for a power transmission line is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring historical fault data of a power transmission line in a target area, wherein the historical fault data comprises: failure rate, operating life, failure loss and failure outage duration;
obtaining an evaluation result of the running state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and constructing a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area;
acquiring historical fault cases of the power transmission line in a target area, and carrying out statistical analysis on the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases;
and determining the risk grade of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area.
2. The method for risk assessment of power transmission lines according to claim 1, further comprising, after determining the risk level of the power transmission lines in the target area: and formulating a corresponding state maintenance scheme of the power transmission line according to the risk grade of the power transmission line in the target area.
3. The risk assessment method of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the evaluation result of the operation state of the power transmission line in the target area, the building of the function model of the evaluation result of the operation state of the power transmission line and the fault rate in combination with the fault rate, and the following calculation formula is adopted:
P(t)＝K×e-C×ISE
in the formula, ISE represents a state evaluation score of the component, K represents a scale coefficient, C represents a curvature coefficient, and p (t) represents a failure occurrence probability of the component.
4. The risk assessment method of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area are obtained, the loss degree caused by the historical fault cases is statistically analyzed, and the following calculation formula is adopted:
where j represents the loss level, IOFjkIndicating the degree of loss value, POFjkDenotes the loss probability, FkIndicating the degree of loss.
5. The method for risk assessment of an electric transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the determining the risk level of the electric transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the electric transmission line in the target area comprises:
acquiring the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area;
obtaining a loss degree value of the historical fault case according to the loss degree of the historical fault case;
and determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area and the loss degree value of the historical fault case.
6. A risk assessment system of a power transmission line, comprising: the device comprises a data acquisition module, a construction module, a statistical analysis module and an evaluation module, wherein the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical fault data of the power transmission line in the target area, wherein the historical fault data comprises: failure rate, operating life, failure loss and failure outage duration;
the building module is used for obtaining an evaluation result of the running state of the power transmission line in the target area according to the internal system of the power grid, and building a fault rate model of the power transmission line in the target area by combining the fault rate of the power transmission line in the target area;
the statistical analysis module is used for acquiring historical fault cases of the power transmission line in the target area and carrying out statistical analysis on the loss degree of the historical fault cases according to the historical fault cases;
and the evaluation module is used for determining the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area according to the fault rate model and the loss degree of the power transmission line in the target area.
7. The risk assessment system of the power transmission line according to claim 6, further comprising a maintenance module for formulating a corresponding state maintenance scheme of the power transmission line according to the risk level of the power transmission line in the target area.
8. The risk assessment system of an electric transmission line according to claim 6, wherein the construction module and the statistical analysis module specifically adopt the following calculation formula:
where j represents the loss level, IOFjkIndicating the degree of loss value, POFjkDenotes the loss probability, FkIndicating the degree of loss.
9. A computer terminal device, comprising: one or more processors; a memory coupled to the processor for storing one or more programs; when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement the method of risk assessment of an electrical transmission line according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out a method for risk assessment of an electric transmission line according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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| CN114580679A (en) * | 2022-03-11 | 2022-06-03 | 国能黄骅港务有限责任公司 | Method and device for determining equipment stability and production operation system |
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