CN113537714A - Old people bus preference scheme evaluation method and system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis - Google Patents
Old people bus preference scheme evaluation method and system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an old people bus preferential scheme evaluation method and system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis, wherein bus travel characteristics of old people passengers are analyzed through multi-source big data fusion, passenger flow, financial expenditure and bus enterprise income of different preferential schemes are evaluated, and prejudgment is carried out before preferential policy adjustment; the method comprises the following steps: collecting multi-source big data such as bus IC card data, bus GPS data and the like; processing data through steps of data screening, data processing, data fusion and the like; extracting main characteristic indexes through data mining analysis; several public transport preferential schemes for the old are provided; establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the public transport passenger flow of the old people with different preferential schemes; establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes; and establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the income of the public transport enterprise with different preferential schemes. The method is simple and practical, and has strong operability and effectiveness.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of urban traffic planning, and particularly relates to an old people bus preference scheme evaluation method and system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis.
Background
Urban public transport is a social public welfare career and a significant civil engineering which provide basic travel services for the social public. In recent years, a plurality of policies are issued by countries and provinces to support the preferential development of urban public transport, and the countries issue notification about the prior development of urban public transport opinions (national issue [ 2005 ] 46 ]) and guidance opinions about the prior development of urban public transport (national issue [ 2012 ] 64 ]) respectively in 2005 and 2012, so that the public transport benefits and the prior development are emphasized, a multi-level differentiated price system is proposed and established, and the public transport attractiveness is enhanced. In order to embody the public welfare of urban public transport, the Ministry of construction has issued in 2006 an opinion (No. 2006) about a plurality of economic policies for preferentially developing urban public transport, and governments in various places are required to increase the investment on public transport and establish a subsidy and compensation mechanism for low fare of public transport. The bus fare subsidy is a transferable expense, the main body of the bus fare subsidy is the government, the object is the bus enterprise, and the final beneficiary is the urban resident. A plurality of public transportation preferential policies are issued in various places, and the preferential policies are subsidized in finance, wherein one important preferential policy is the preferential policy for the old to take the public transportation. The preferential policy of taking the bus by the old people has positive effects on embodying humanistic care for the old people and enabling the old people to enjoy social welfare and the like. Meanwhile, in recent years, the old and the young seize the public transportation resources during the peak period of work, the bus line congestion is increased, the problems of disputes caused by seat giving and the like are attracted to a wide social attention, and the discussion of the adjustment of the preferential policy of the old to take the public transportation is raised.
In the past, researchers mostly rely on traditional statistical data such as the bus passenger flow volume and the financial subsidy expenditure of the old people to perform relevant analysis, the macroscopic statistical data only can reflect the overall situation of the input and output effects of the old people taking buses, are relatively rough, cannot deeply mine and analyze the bus travel behaviors of the old people, do not establish a calculation model for influences on the bus passenger flow, the financial subsidy and the income of a bus enterprise of the old people after the preferential policy adjustment of the old people, and cannot perform pre-analysis on influences possibly caused by the policy adjustment.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an old people bus discount scheme evaluation method and system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis, which can realize calculation and evaluation on passenger flow, financial expenditure, bus enterprise income and the like of different old people taking bus discount schemes; on the other hand, through the passenger flow, financial expenditure and income calculation and evaluation model of the public transport enterprise, which is established by the invention, the influence of the preferential scheme on different aspects such as government finance, public transport enterprise and the elderly population can be judged in advance before the different preferential schemes are implemented, and the method has the characteristic of strong pertinence.
The technical solution for realizing the purpose of the invention is as follows:
on one hand, the invention provides an old people bus discount scheme evaluation method based on multi-source big data fusion analysis, which comprises the following steps:
step 1), collecting multi-source big data which mainly comprises bus IC card data and bus GPS data, and carrying out data screening and data fusion processing;
step 2), extracting main characteristic indexes through data mining analysis;
step 3), providing a public transport preferential scheme for the old;
step 4), establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the public transport passenger flow of the old with different preferential schemes;
step 5), establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes;
and 6), establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the income of the public transport enterprises with different preferential schemes.
Further, the detailed steps of step 1) are as follows:
step 1.1), collecting original data of multisource big data such as public transport IC card data and bus GPS data of a city;
step 1.2), screening out attribute data required by public trip characteristic analysis of middle-aged and elderly people from original data of multi-source big data such as public transport IC card data, bus GPS data and the like, wherein the attribute data comprises the code of the public transport IC card, user attribute, card swiping time, line number of buses operated by each bus line, stop time and speed.
And step 1.3), compiling a special multi-source big data processing program for data processing, and fusing bus IC card data and bus GPS data.
Further, the detailed steps of step 2) are as follows:
and 2.1) extracting main characteristic indexes of active old people, such as preferential number of bus cards, daily average trip times of the old people, trip proportion in peak periods, old passenger flow proportion in crowded bus routes and the like through multi-source big data mining analysis.
Further, the detailed steps of step 3) are as follows:
step 3.1), the public transport preferential policy of the old people in the general city is as follows: the method is divided into old card discount and senior card discount according to age groups, the old card is used by residents in 60-70 years, five-fold discount can be enjoyed by taking the card on a bus for unlimited times, and an unlimited half-price scheme is adopted; the card for old people is used by residents in the age of 70 years and above, and can enjoy free preference by taking the card on a bus, the times are unlimited, and an unlimited number free scheme is adopted; the policy loss generated by preferential policies of the old card and the senior card is subsidized to the public transportation enterprises by government and financial departments;
step 3.2), the public transport preferential policy of the old people can also adopt an old comprehensive allowance scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the old comprehensive allowance scheme is as follows: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the senior citizen card is cancelled, the senior citizen is changed to provide the comprehensive public transportation trip allowance for the senior citizen over 70 years old, and the senior citizen card is swiped to enjoy the five-fold discount privilege;
step 3.3), the old people bus discount policy can also adopt a peak-off discount scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the peak-off discount scheme is as follows: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the card for old people needs to be swiped to buy tickets for riding in early peak of working day, the card is swiped to enjoy five discount preferential points, free riding can be carried in other periods, and free use can be carried out on double holidays and legal festivals and holidays;
step 3.4), the public transport preferential policy of the old can also adopt a limited full free and limited half-price scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme is as follows: the old card can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the five-fold discount privilege standard, and the excess part of the old card enjoys eight-fold discount privilege according to the common IC card, which is called a limited-amount half-price scheme; the card for senior citizen can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the free preferential standard, and the excess part of the card for senior citizen enjoys eight-fold preferential according to the common IC card, which is called a limited full free scheme;
step 3.5), the old people public transport preferential policy can also adopt a peak time crowded line charging scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the peak time crowded line charging scheme is as follows: for the crowded public transportation lines at the morning and evening peak, the senior citizen card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take a bus according to the five-fold preferential standard, and the old card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take the bus according to the eight-fold preferential standard; riding for the senior card according to the free preferential standard in the peak time period, and riding for the senior card according to the five-fold preferential standard.
Further, the detailed steps of the step 4) are as follows:
step 4.1), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the public transport passenger flow of the old people of the comprehensive old allowance scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Va1＝λ1*Vb1+λ2*Vb2
wherein, Va1For the old people adopting the old comprehensive allowance scheme to give away the passenger flow of the public transport, lambda1In order to adopt the comprehensive old body fluid scheme to change the proportion of the passenger flow of the senior citizen card, Vb1The method adopts unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize annual capacity of senior cards, lambda2The change proportion of the passenger flow of the old card is V after adopting the comprehensive old body fluid schemeb2The system adopts the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize the passenger flow of the card for each aged;
step 4.2), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the public transport passenger flow of the old people with the peak-off preferential scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Va2＝Vb-365*η1*Vm1--365*η2*Vm2
wherein, Va2For the elderly with peak-shifting preferential scheme, VbTotal passenger flow, eta, for the elderly every year using an unlimited full free and unlimited half-rate scheme1The method adopts a peak-staggering preferential scheme to reduce the early peak passenger flow rate of the senior citizen card, Vm1Eta is the passenger flow of the early peak senior citizen card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme2The early peak passenger flow volume reduction proportion V of the old card is realized by adopting a peak staggering preferential schemem2The method adopts an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize the early peak old card passenger flow;
step 4.3), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the old public transport passenger flow of the limited full free and limited half price scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, Va3For the elderly adopting a scheme of full free with limited amount and half price with limited amount, n1The number of annual average trips of the senior card passengers is an unlimited full free and unlimited half price scheme2The annual average trip times of the aged card passengers are unlimited free and unlimited half-price plan0The preferential times are defined for the card for the elderly and the senior every year;
step 4.4), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the old public transport passenger flow of the crowded line charging scheme in the peak period is calculated according to the following formula:
Va4＝Vb-α1*β1*P1*Vb1-α2*β2*P2*Vb2
wherein alpha is1Beta is the proportion of the passenger flow of the senior citizen card in the morning and evening peak period to the passenger flow of the senior citizen card all day1The proportion of the passenger flow of the senior card in the whole bus line is P1The charge scheme for the congested line in the peak period is the card passenger flow descending proportion, alpha2The proportion of the old card passenger flow in the morning and evening peak time period to the old card passenger flow all day long,β2the proportion of the old card passenger flow of the crowded bus line to the old card passenger flow of the whole bus line is P2The old card passenger flow rate is reduced for the charging scheme of the crowded line in the peak period.
Further, the detailed steps of the step 5) are as follows:
step 5.1), establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating the financial expenditure of the comprehensive old-age subsidy scheme according to the following formula:
by adopting the mode of issuing subsidies through the senior citizen card, the financial expenditure of the comprehensive senior citizen subsidy scheme is as follows:
Fa1＝365*p*N1*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
wherein, Fa1For financial expenditure in the case of an integrated old age allowance scheme, N1Holding the amount of card for the elderly f1The number of daily trips per card is pcIs a normal bus fare, p is a preferential bus fare of the senior card and the aged card, Fb2The financial expenditure for subsidizing the old card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is realized;
the mode of distributing all the old people over 70 years old is adopted, and the financial expenditure of the comprehensive old-age subsidy scheme is as follows:
Fa1＝365*p*N2*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
wherein, Fa1For financial expenditure in the case of an integrated old age allowance scheme, N2The number of the aged over 70 years old;
step 5.2), a financial expenditure calculation model is established, and the financial expenditure of the peak-shifting preferential scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Fa2＝Fb+365*p*N1*f1*γ+365*(pc-p)*N3*f1*γ-365*pc*η1*Vm1
wherein, Fa2To adopt financial expenditure of peak-off preferential schemes, FbFor financial expenditure in unlimited full free and unlimited half-rate schemesGamma is the ratio of morning peak to night of the senior citizen card, N3The number of the card for the aged who is active every day;
step 5.3), a financial expense calculation model is established, and the financial expenses of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme are calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, Fa3The financial expenditure is limited by adopting a limited full free and limited half-price scheme;
step 5.4), a financial expense calculation model is established, and the financial expense of the congested line charging scheme in the peak hours is calculated according to the following formula:
Fa4＝Fb+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N1+365*(pc-p)*α1*β1*f1*N3
-(pc-p)*α1*β1*p1*Vb1+(p-pN)*α2*β2*p2*Vb2
wherein p isNIt is a general IC card eight-fold preferential ticket price.
Further, the detailed steps of step 6) are as follows:
step 6.1), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income of the comprehensive old allowance scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Ia1＝p*λ1*Vb1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Ib2
wherein, Ia1For the income of public transport enterprises adopting the comprehensive allowance scheme for the aged, Ib2The method is a subsidy for the old cards received by public transport enterprises by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
step 6.2), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income adopting the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Ib＝Ib1+Ib2+p*Vb2
wherein, IbThe method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; i isb1The card subsidy is the senior card subsidy received by public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
calculating the income of the public transport enterprise of the peak-shifting preferential scheme according to the following formula:
Ia2＝Ib+365*p*N3*f1*γ-365*pc*η1*Vm1
wherein, Ia2For public transport income adopting peak shifting preferential scheme, IbThe method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
step 6.3), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, Ia3The method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting a scheme of limited full free and limited half price;
step 6.4), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income of the crowded line charging scheme in the peak period is calculated according to the following formula:
Ia4＝Ib+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N3-pc*α1*β1*p1*Vb1
+pN*α2*β2*(1-p2)*Vb2+[p-pN-p2*(pc-pN)]*α2*β2*Vb2
wherein, Ia4The method is used for the income of the public transport enterprises adopting the scheme of charging for the crowded lines in the peak hours.
On the other hand, the invention also provides an old people bus discount scheme evaluation system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis, which comprises the following steps:
the multi-source big data acquisition module is used for acquiring multi-source big data, mainly comprises bus IC card data and bus GPS data, and is subjected to data screening and data fusion processing;
the main characteristic index extraction module extracts main characteristic indexes through data mining analysis;
the discount scheme confirmation module is used for determining a bus discount scheme for the old;
the old people bus passenger flow calculation module calculates the old people bus passenger flow with different preferential schemes by establishing a passenger flow calculation model;
the government financial expenditure calculation module is used for calculating the government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes by establishing a financial expenditure calculation model;
and the public transport enterprise income calculation module is used for calculating the income of the public transport enterprises with different preferential schemes by establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model.
The specific implementation manner of each module of the system is the same as the specific processing method in each step of the evaluation method.
Compared with the prior art, the invention adopting the technical scheme has the following technical effects:
(1) the old people take bus preferential policy has caused extensive discussion on the old people take bus preferential policy in recent years due to the problems that the old people and the young people take bus resources in rush hours of getting on and off the bus, increase bus line congestion, cause dispute due to seat giving and the like, but people lack clear understanding on the behavior characteristics of the old people taking the bus, the invention utilizes multi-source big data such as bus IC card data, bus GPS data and the like to compile multi-source big data processing and mining analysis programs, can deeply analyze the behavior characteristics of the old people passengers on bus trip, extract characteristic indexes and analyze the characteristics of the old people on bus trip;
(2) the preferential policy adjustment of the old people relates to multiple aspects of government finance, public transport enterprises, old people groups and the like, is a social problem with high sensitivity, and needs to pre-judge the influence of each aspect possibly brought by the scheme before implementation, and currently, a calculation model for the influence of the preferential policy adjustment of the old people on the passenger flow, financial subsidy and income of the public transport enterprises is lacked.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of old people bus discount scheme evaluation based on multi-source big data fusion analysis.
Detailed Description
The big data technology has huge function and potential in the research of urban traffic problems, the current technical means of bus IC card, bus GPS and the like are increasingly popularized, the multisource big data such as bus IC card data, bus GPS data and the like comprise various attribute data, can be well used for analyzing the bus travel behavior characteristics of the elderly population, assists in scheme optimization, if an evaluation method of bus preferential plan for the old can be established based on fusion analysis of multisource big data such as bus IC card data, bus GPS data and the like, big data mining analysis is carried out by utilizing multisource big data such as bus IC card data, bus GPS data and the like, the bus travel behavior characteristics of the old passengers are analyzed, and passenger flow, financial expenditure and bus enterprise income of different preferential plans are calculated, more scientific research and judgment can be carried out on the preferential policy of the old, and decision reference is provided for more reasonable implementation of the preferential scheme of the old.
The invention provides an old people bus preferential plan evaluation method and system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis.
With reference to fig. 1, taking a certain city as an example, the method for evaluating the bus discount scheme of the elderly based on multi-source big data fusion analysis provided by the invention is further described in detail:
step 1, collecting data and processing data
1.1) acquiring original data of multisource big data such as public transport IC card data, bus GPS data and the like of a city;
1.2) screening out attribute data required by public transport trip characteristic analysis of middle-aged and elderly people from original data of multi-source big data such as public transport IC card data, bus GPS data and the like;
1.3) compiling a multi-source big data processing program for data processing, and fusing bus IC card data and bus GPS data.
Step 2, compiling a data mining analysis program, and extracting main characteristic indexes through data mining analysis;
writing a special multi-source big data mining analysis program, and extracting main characteristic indexes of active old people, such as preferential number of bus cards, daily average trip times of the old people, trip proportion in peak periods, and old passenger flow proportion in crowded bus routes.
Step 3, providing several bus preference schemes for the old
3.1) the public transport preferential policy of the old people in the city is as follows: the method is divided into old card discount and senior card discount according to age groups, the old card is used by residents in 60-70 years, five-fold discount can be enjoyed by taking the card on a bus for unlimited times, and an unlimited half-price scheme is adopted; the card for old people is used by residents in the age of 70 years and above, and can enjoy free preference by taking the card on a bus, the times are unlimited, and an unlimited number free scheme is adopted; the policy loss generated by preferential policies of the old card and the senior card is subsidized to the public transportation enterprises by government and financial departments;
3.2) the public transport preferential policy of the old can also adopt an old comprehensive allowance scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the old comprehensive allowance scheme is as follows: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the senior citizen card is cancelled, the senior citizen is changed to provide the comprehensive public transportation trip allowance for the senior citizen over 70 years old, and the senior citizen card is swiped to enjoy the five-fold discount privilege;
3.3) the public transport discount policy of the old people can also adopt a peak-shifting discount scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the peak-shifting discount scheme is as follows: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the card for old people needs to be swiped to buy tickets for riding in early peak of working day, the card is swiped to enjoy five discount preferential points, free riding can be carried in other periods, and free use can be carried out on double holidays and legal festivals and holidays;
3.4) the public transport preferential policy of the old can also adopt a limited full free and limited half-price scheme, and the specific implementation scheme of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme is as follows: the old card can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the five-fold discount privilege standard, and the excess part of the old card enjoys eight-fold discount privilege according to the common IC card, which is called a limited-amount half-price scheme; the card for senior citizen can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the free preferential standard, and the excess part of the card for senior citizen enjoys eight-fold preferential according to the common IC card, which is called a limited full free scheme;
3.5) the preferential policy of the buses of the old people can also adopt a charging scheme of the crowded line at the peak time, and the specific implementation scheme of the charging scheme of the crowded line at the peak time is as follows: for the crowded public transportation lines at the morning and evening peak, the senior citizen card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take a bus according to the five-fold preferential standard, and the old card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take the bus according to the eight-fold preferential standard; riding for the senior card according to the free preferential standard in the peak time period, and riding for the senior card according to the five-fold preferential standard.
Step 4, building a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the public transport passenger flow of the old with different preferential schemes
4.1) the bus passenger flow of the senior citizen card in 2019 of the bus preferential policy of the senior citizen implemented in a certain city at present is 1800 ten thousand times, and the bus passenger flow of the senior citizen card is 1250 ten thousand times; the senior card financial subsidy is 3660 ten thousand yuan, and the senior card financial subsidy is 1677 ten thousand yuan;
4.2) the first preferential adjustment scheme of public transport for the old, the public transport passenger flow for the old of the comprehensive allowance scheme:
Va1＝λ1*Vb1+λ2*Vb250%. 1800+ 100%. 1250. 2150 ten thousand people;
wherein, Va1The system is the bus passenger flow volume of the old people adopting the comprehensive old allowance scheme; lambda [ alpha ]1The proportion of change of passenger flow of the senior citizen card after adopting the comprehensive old allowance scheme is taken as 50 percent by referring to the experience of other cities; vb1The passenger flow of the senior citizen card is 1800 ten thousand times by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; lambda [ alpha ]2The old card passenger flow change proportion is changed after the old card comprehensive allowance scheme is adopted, the old card comprehensive allowance scheme has no influence on the old card, and the lambda is2Is 100%; vb2The passenger flow of each aged card is 1250 ten thousands of people by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
4.3) the old people bus preferential adjustment scheme II, the old people bus passenger flow of the off-peak preferential scheme:
Va2＝Vb-365*η1*Vm1-365*η2*Vm2
3050-;
wherein, Va2The method is characterized in that the method is the bus passenger flow of the old people adopting a peak staggering preferential scheme; vbThe total passenger flow of the old every year is 3050 ten thousand times by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; eta1The early peak passenger flow rate reduction proportion of the senior citizen card after adopting the peak staggering preferential scheme is taken as 50 percent; vm1The amount of the early peak senior citizen card passenger flow is 1.25 ten thousand times by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; eta2In order to adopt the early peak passenger flow volume reduction proportion of the old card after the peak-staggering preferential scheme, the peak-staggering preferential scheme has no influence on the old card, eta2＝0；Vm2The early peak old card passenger flow rate is 0.8 ten thousand times by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
4.4) the old people public transport preferential adjustment scheme III, the limited amount is free completely and the limited amount is half-price, the old people public transport passenger flow of the scheme:
wherein, Va3The system is the bus passenger flow of the old people adopting a scheme of limited full free and limited half price; n is1The annual average trip times of the senior card passengers are 1073.5 times/year according to the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; n is2The annual average trip times of the aged card passengers are 949 times/year according to the unlimited free and unlimited half-price scheme; n is0Taking the preferential times of the card for the senior and the senior as 900 times; vb1The capacity of the card for the aged is 1800 ten thousand times for unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; vb2The passenger flow of the old card is 1250 ten thousand times for an unlimited free and unlimited half-price scheme;
4.5) the preferential adjustment scheme of the old bus is four, and the old bus passenger flow of the scheme of the crowded line charging at the peak time is as follows:
Va4＝Vb-α1*β1*P1*Vb1-α2*β2*P2*Vb2
＝3050-38％*30％*75％*1800-39％*30％*75％*1250
2786.4 ten thousands times
Wherein alpha is1The proportion of the senior card passenger flow in the morning and evening peak hours to the senior card passenger flow in the whole day is 38 percent; beta is a1The proportion of the passenger flow of the senior card in the crowded bus route to the passenger flow of all the senior cards in the crowded bus route is 30 percent; p1The drop proportion of the passenger flow of the senior card in the scheme of charging the congested line at the peak time is 75 percent; alpha is alpha2The proportion of the old card passenger flow in the morning and evening peak time period to the whole-day old card passenger flow is 39 percent; beta is a2The proportion of the old card passenger flow of the crowded bus line to the old card passenger flow of all the bus lines is 30 percent; p2The passenger flow reduction proportion of the old card in the scheme of charging for the crowded lines at peak time is 75 percent; vb1Is free of unlimited amountThe charge and the passenger flow of the senior card in an unlimited half-price scheme are 1800 ten thousand times; vb2The passenger flow of the old card is 1250 ten thousand times for an unlimited free and unlimited half-price scheme.
Step 5, establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes
5.1) the first public transport preferential adjustment scheme for the old, and the financial expenditure of the comprehensive subsidy scheme for the old:
the old card subsidy financial expenditure of the old comprehensive allowance scheme is unchanged; the government financial expenditure of the senior citizen card mainly comprises comprehensive benefits issued to senior citizen card holders and fare subsidies with five-fold discount favor of card swiping for the senior citizen card by adopting a mode of issuing subsidies through the senior citizen card:
Fa1＝365*p*N1*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
365 × 1 × 11 × 2.94+ (2-1) × 50% × 1800+1677 ═ 14381.1 ten thousand yuan
Wherein, Fa1Is the financial expenditure for adopting the comprehensive body fluid scheme of the old; n is a radical of1The card amount is 11 ten thousand for the old; f. of1The number of trips per card day is 2.94 times per day; p is a radical ofcNormal bus fare, 2 yuan; p is preferential public transportation fare of the card for old people and the card for old people, enjoys 5 discount preferential, and is 1 yuan; fb2The financial expenditure for subsidizing the old card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is 1677 ten thousand yuan;
the old card subsidy financial expenditure of the old comprehensive allowance scheme is unchanged; the government financial expenditure of the senior citizen card mainly comprises comprehensive benefits issued to all senior citizens over 70 and 5 discount price subsidies for swiping the senior citizen card:
Fa1＝365*p*N2*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
＝365*1*13.5*2.94+(2-1)*50％*1800+1677＝17063.9
wherein, Fa1Is the financial expenditure for adopting the comprehensive body fluid scheme of the old; n is a radical of213.5 million people, which is the number of old people over 70 years old;
5.2) the old people bus discount adjustment scheme II, and the financial expenditure of the peak shift discount scheme:
Fa2＝Fb+365*p*N1*f1*γ+365*(pc-p)*N3*f1*γ-365*pc*η1*Vm1
＝5337+365*1*11*2.94*25％+365*(2-1)*1.7*2.94*25％-365*1*50％*1.25
8515.9 ten thousand yuan
Wherein, Fa2Financial expenditure for adopting peak shifting preferential scheme; fbThe financial expenditure for adopting the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is 5337 ten thousand yuan; gamma is the senior peak trip proportion of the senior citizen card, and is 25 percent; n is a radical of31.7 ten thousand cards are presented as the number of the active senior citizens cards per day;
5.3) the old people bus preferential adjustment scheme III, the financial expenditure of the limited full free and limited half price scheme:
wherein, Fa3The financial expenditure is limited by adopting a limited full free and limited half-price scheme;
5.4) the old people bus preferential adjustment scheme is four: financial expenditure of the congested line charging scheme during peak hours:
Fa4＝Fb+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N1+365*(pc-p)*α1*β1*f1*N3
-(pc-p)*α1*β1*p1*Vb1+(p-pN)*α2*β2*p2*Vb2
＝5337+365*1*38％*30％*2.94*11+365*(2-1)*38％*30％*2.94*1.7
-(2-1)*38％*30％*75％*1800+(1-1.6)*39％*30％*75％*1250
6671 ten thousand yuan
Wherein p isNIs a common IC card with a discount coupon price of 1.6 yuan.
Step 6, establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the income of the public transport enterprise with different preferential schemes
6.1) the first public transport preferential adjustment scheme for the old, and the income of public transport enterprises of the comprehensive allowance scheme for the old:
Ia1＝p*λ1*Vb1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Ib2
1 × 50 × 1800+ (2-1) × 50 × 1800+1677 ═ 3477 ten thousand yuan
Wherein, Ia1The income of the public transportation enterprises adopting the comprehensive allowance scheme for the old people; i isb2The card is a 1677 ten thousand yuan paste for old cards received by public transport enterprises;
6.2) the old people bus discount adjustment scheme II, and the income of the bus enterprise of the peak-off discount scheme:
the income of the public transport enterprise adopting the scheme of unlimited full free and unlimited half price:
Ib＝Ib1+Ib2+p*Vb23660+1677+1 × 1250-6587 ten thousand yuan
Wherein, IbThe method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; i isb1The card is a supplementary paste of 3660 ten thousand yuan for the senior citizens received by public transport enterprises; i isb2The card is a 1677 ten thousand yuan paste for old cards received by public transport enterprises; the financial subsidies of the senior card and the old card are 5337 ten thousand yuan, and the fare of the old card swiping the card is 1250 ten thousand yuan;
Ia2＝Ib+365*p*N3*f1*γ-365*pc*η1*Vm1
6587+365 1.7 × 2.94 × 25% -365 × 2 × 50% × 1.25 ═ 8586.8 ten thousand members
Wherein, Ia2The income of the public transport enterprises adopting the peak shifting preferential scheme is increased;
6.3) the old public transport preferential adjustment scheme III, the income of the public transport enterprises of the limited full free and the limited half-price scheme:
wherein, Ia3The method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting a scheme of limited full free and limited half price;
6.4) the old people bus preferential adjustment scheme is four: the income of the public transport enterprises of the crowded line charging scheme in peak hours:
Ia4＝Ib+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N3-pc*α1*β1*p1*Vb1
+pN*α2*β2*(1-p2)*Vb2+[p-pN-p2*(pc-pN)]*α2*β2*Vb2
＝6587+365*1*38％*30％*2.94*1.7-2*38％*30％*75％*1800
+1.6*39％*30％*(1-75％)*1250+[1-1.6-75％*(2-1.6)]*39％*30％*1250
6414.1 ten thousand yuan
Wherein, Ia4The method is used for the income of the public transport enterprises adopting the scheme of charging for the crowded lines in the peak hours.
And 7, comprehensively evaluating by adopting a common multi-index comprehensive evaluation method such as an analytic hierarchy process, a fuzzy evaluation method, a comprehensive index method and the like according to the three indexes of the old people bus passenger flow, the financial expenditure and the bus enterprise income of each old people bus preference adjustment scheme calculated above, and assisting in decision making.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that, unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. It will be further understood that terms, such as those defined in commonly used dictionaries, should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the context of the prior art and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense unless expressly so defined herein.
The above-mentioned embodiments, objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are further described in detail, it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only illustrative of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The method for evaluating the bus preference scheme of the old based on multi-source big data fusion analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1), collecting multi-source big data which mainly comprises bus IC card data and bus GPS data, and carrying out data screening and data fusion processing;
step 2), extracting main characteristic indexes through data mining analysis;
step 3), providing a public transport preferential scheme for the old;
step 4), establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the public transport passenger flow of the old with different preferential schemes;
step 5), establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes;
and 6), establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the income of the public transport enterprises with different preferential schemes.
2. The method for evaluating the bus preference scheme of the elderly based on the multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 1, wherein the main characteristic indexes in the step 2) comprise preferential number of bus cards of the active elderly, daily average trip times of the elderly in the bus, trip proportion in peak period, and proportion of old passenger flow in crowded bus routes.
3. The old people bus discount scheme evaluation method based on multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 2, wherein the old people bus discount scheme in the step 3) is as follows:
1) the urban public transport preferential policy for the old is as follows: the method is divided into old card discount and senior card discount according to age groups, the old card is used by residents in 60-70 years, five-fold discount can be enjoyed by taking the card on a bus for unlimited times, and an unlimited half-price scheme is adopted; the card for old people is used by residents in the age of 70 years and above, and can enjoy free preference by taking the card on a bus, the times are unlimited, and an unlimited number free scheme is adopted;
2) the comprehensive body fluid application scheme for the old: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the senior citizen card is cancelled, the senior citizen is changed to provide the comprehensive public transportation trip allowance for the senior citizen over 70 years old, and the senior citizen card is swiped to enjoy the five-fold discount privilege;
3) adopting a peak shifting preferential scheme: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the card for old people needs to be swiped to buy tickets for riding in early peak of working day, the card is swiped to enjoy five discount preferential points, free riding can be carried in other periods, and free use can be carried out on double holidays and legal festivals and holidays;
4) the scheme of limited free and limited half price: the old card can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the five-fold discount privilege standard, and the excess part of the old card enjoys eight-fold discount privilege according to the common IC card, which is called a limited-amount half-price scheme; the card for senior citizen can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the free preferential standard, and the excess part of the card for senior citizen enjoys eight-fold preferential according to the common IC card, which is called a limited full free scheme;
5) the scheme for charging the congested line in the peak period comprises the following steps: for the crowded public transportation lines at the morning and evening peak, the senior citizen card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take a bus according to the five-fold preferential standard, and the old card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take the bus according to the eight-fold preferential standard; riding for the senior card according to the free preferential standard in the peak time period, and riding for the senior card according to the five-fold preferential standard.
4. The old people bus discount scheme evaluation method based on multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 3, wherein the detailed steps of the step 4) are as follows:
step 4.1), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the public transport passenger flow of the old people of the comprehensive old allowance scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Va1＝λ1*Vb1+λ2*Vb2
wherein, Va1For the old people adopting the old comprehensive allowance scheme to give away the passenger flow of the public transport, lambda1In order to adopt the comprehensive old body fluid scheme to change the proportion of the passenger flow of the senior citizen card, Vb1The method adopts unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize annual capacity of senior cards, lambda2The change proportion of the passenger flow of the old card is V after adopting the comprehensive old body fluid schemeb2The system adopts the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize the passenger flow of the card for each aged;
step 4.2), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the public transport passenger flow of the old people with the peak-off preferential scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Va2＝Vb-365*η1*Vm1-365*η2*Vm2
wherein, Va2For the elderly with peak-shifting preferential scheme, VbTotal passenger flow, eta, for the elderly every year using an unlimited full free and unlimited half-rate scheme1The method adopts a peak-staggering preferential scheme to reduce the early peak passenger flow rate of the senior citizen card, Vm1Eta is the passenger flow of the early peak senior citizen card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme2The early peak passenger flow volume reduction proportion V of the old card is realized by adopting a peak staggering preferential schemem2The method adopts an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize the early peak old card passenger flow;
step 4.3), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the old public transport passenger flow of the limited full free and limited half price scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, Va3For the elderly adopting a scheme of full free with limited amount and half price with limited amount, n1Free for unlimited amount and half for unlimited amountAverage annual trip times, n, of the senior card passengers in the pricing plan2The annual average trip times of the aged card passengers are unlimited free and unlimited half-price plan0The preferential times are defined for the card for the elderly and the senior every year;
step 4.4), a passenger flow calculation model is established, and the old public transport passenger flow of the crowded line charging scheme in the peak period is calculated according to the following formula:
Va4＝Vb-α1*β1*P1*Vb1-α2*β2*P2*Vb2
wherein alpha is1Beta is the proportion of the passenger flow of the senior citizen card in the morning and evening peak period to the passenger flow of the senior citizen card all day1The proportion of the passenger flow of the senior card in the whole bus line is P1The charge scheme for the congested line in the peak period is the card passenger flow descending proportion, alpha2The proportion of the old card passenger flow in the morning and evening peak time period to the old card passenger flow in the whole day is beta2The proportion of the old card passenger flow of the crowded bus line to the old card passenger flow of the whole bus line is P2The old card passenger flow rate is reduced for the charging scheme of the crowded line in the peak period.
5. The old people bus discount scheme evaluation method based on multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 4, wherein the detailed steps of the step 5) are as follows:
step 5.1), establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating the financial expenditure of the comprehensive old-age subsidy scheme according to the following formula:
by adopting the mode of issuing subsidies through the senior citizen card, the financial expenditure of the comprehensive senior citizen subsidy scheme is as follows:
Fa1＝365*p*N1*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
wherein, Fa1For financial expenditure in the case of an integrated old age allowance scheme, N1Holding the amount of card for the elderly f1The number of daily trips per card is pcIs normal bus fare, p is senior card and oldPreferential public transport fares for annual cards, Fb2The financial expenditure for subsidizing the old card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is realized;
the mode of distributing all the old people over 70 years old is adopted, and the financial expenditure of the comprehensive old-age subsidy scheme is as follows:
Fa1＝365*p*N2*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
wherein, Fa1For financial expenditure in the case of an integrated old age allowance scheme, N2The number of the aged over 70 years old;
step 5.2), a financial expenditure calculation model is established, and the financial expenditure of the peak-shifting preferential scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Fa2＝Fb+365*p*N1*f1*γ+365*(pc-p)*N3*f1*γ-365*pc*η1*Vm1
wherein, Fa2To adopt financial expenditure of peak-off preferential schemes, FbFor the financial expenditure adopting the scheme of unlimited full free and unlimited half price, gamma is the early peak trip proportion of the senior card, and N is3The number of the card for the aged who is active every day;
step 5.3), a financial expense calculation model is established, and the financial expenses of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme are calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, Fa3The financial expenditure is limited by adopting a limited full free and limited half-price scheme;
step 5.4), a financial expense calculation model is established, and the financial expense of the congested line charging scheme in the peak hours is calculated according to the following formula:
Fa4＝Fb+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N1+365*(pc-p)*α1*β1*f1*N3-(pc-p)*α1*β1*p1*Vb1+(p-pN)*α2*β2*p2*Vb2
wherein p isNIt is a general IC card eight-fold preferential ticket price.
6. The old people bus discount scheme evaluation method based on multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 5, wherein the detailed steps of the step 6) are as follows:
step 6.1), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income of the comprehensive old allowance scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Ia1＝p*λ1*Vb1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Ib2
wherein, Ia1For the income of public transport enterprises adopting the comprehensive allowance scheme for the aged, Ib2The method is a subsidy for the old cards received by public transport enterprises by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
step 6.2), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income adopting the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
Ib＝Ib1+Ib2+p*Vb2
wherein, IbThe method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme; i isb1The card subsidy is the senior card subsidy received by public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
calculating the income of the public transport enterprise of the peak-shifting preferential scheme according to the following formula:
Ia2＝Ib+365*p*N3*f1*α-365*pc*η1*Vm1
wherein, Ia2For public transport income adopting peak shifting preferential scheme, IbThe method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
step 6.3), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, Ia3The method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting a scheme of limited full free and limited half price;
step 6.4), a public transport enterprise income calculation model is established, and the public transport enterprise income of the crowded line charging scheme in the peak period is calculated according to the following formula:
Ia4＝Ib+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N3-pc*α1*β1*p1*Vb1+pN*α2*β2*(1-p2)*Vb2+[p-pN-p2*(pc-pN)]*α2*β2*Vb2
wherein, Ia4The method is used for the income of the public transport enterprises adopting the scheme of charging for the crowded lines in the peak hours.
7. The utility model provides an old person's public transit preferential scheme evaluation system based on big data fusion analysis of multisource which characterized in that includes:
the multi-source big data acquisition module is used for acquiring multi-source big data, mainly comprises bus IC card data and bus GPS data, and is subjected to data screening and data fusion processing;
the main characteristic index extraction module extracts main characteristic indexes through data mining analysis;
the discount scheme confirmation module is used for determining a bus discount scheme for the old;
the old people bus passenger flow calculation module calculates the old people bus passenger flow with different preferential schemes by establishing a passenger flow calculation model;
the government financial expenditure calculation module is used for calculating the government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes by establishing a financial expenditure calculation model;
and the public transport enterprise income calculation module is used for calculating the income of the public transport enterprises with different preferential schemes by establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model.
8. The system for evaluating the bus discount scheme of the elderly people based on the multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 7, wherein the main characteristic indexes comprise the number of active preferential bus cards of the elderly people, the daily average trip times of the elderly people, the trip proportion in peak periods and the proportion of the elderly passengers in crowded bus routes.
9. The old people bus discount scheme evaluation system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 7, wherein the old people bus discount scheme is as follows:
1) the urban public transport preferential policy for the old is as follows: the method is divided into old card discount and senior card discount according to age groups, the old card is used by residents in 60-70 years, five-fold discount can be enjoyed by taking the card on a bus for unlimited times, and an unlimited half-price scheme is adopted; the card for old people is used by residents in the age of 70 years and above, and can enjoy free preference by taking the card on a bus, the times are unlimited, and an unlimited number free scheme is adopted;
2) the comprehensive body fluid application scheme for the old: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the senior citizen card is cancelled, the senior citizen is changed to provide the comprehensive public transportation trip allowance for the senior citizen over 70 years old, and the senior citizen card is swiped to enjoy the five-fold discount privilege;
3) adopting a peak shifting preferential scheme: the old card can enjoy five-fold discount privilege by taking the card on a bus, and an unlimited number of times and half-price scheme are adopted; the card for old people needs to be swiped to buy tickets for riding in early peak of working day, the card is swiped to enjoy five discount preferential points, free riding can be carried in other periods, and free use can be carried out on double holidays and legal festivals and holidays;
4) the scheme of limited free and limited half price: the old card can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the five-fold discount privilege standard, and the excess part of the old card enjoys eight-fold discount privilege according to the common IC card, which is called a limited-amount half-price scheme; the card for senior citizen can take buses for a certain number of times every year according to the free preferential standard, and the excess part of the card for senior citizen enjoys eight-fold preferential according to the common IC card, which is called a limited full free scheme;
5) the scheme for charging the congested line in the peak period comprises the following steps: for the crowded public transportation lines at the morning and evening peak, the senior citizen card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take a bus according to the five-fold preferential standard, and the old card swipes the card and purchases the ticket to take the bus according to the eight-fold preferential standard; riding for the senior card according to the free preferential standard in the peak time period, and riding for the senior card according to the five-fold preferential standard.
10. The old people bus preferential plan evaluation system based on multi-source big data fusion analysis according to claim 7, wherein the old people bus passenger flow calculation module calculates the old people bus passenger flow of different preferential plans by establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and specifically comprises:
establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the public transport passenger flow of the old people of the comprehensive old allowance scheme according to the following formula:
Va1＝λ1*Vb1+λ2*Vb2
wherein, Va1For the old people adopting the old comprehensive allowance scheme to give away the passenger flow of the public transport, lambda1In order to adopt the comprehensive old body fluid scheme to change the proportion of the passenger flow of the senior citizen card, Vb1The method adopts unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize annual capacity of senior cards, lambda2The change proportion of the passenger flow of the old card is V after adopting the comprehensive old body fluid schemeb2The system adopts the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize the passenger flow of the card for each aged;
establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the bus passenger flow of the old people with the peak-off preferential scheme according to the following formula:
Va2＝Vb-365*η1*Vm1-365*η2*Vm2
wherein, Va2For the elderly with peak-shifting preferential scheme, VbTotal passenger flow, eta, for the elderly every year using an unlimited full free and unlimited half-rate scheme1To adopt peak-shifting preferential prescriptionThe proportion of the decrease of the early peak passenger flow of the senior citizen card after a case, Vm1Eta is the passenger flow of the early peak senior citizen card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme2The early peak passenger flow volume reduction proportion V of the old card is realized by adopting a peak staggering preferential schemem2The method adopts an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme to realize the early peak old card passenger flow;
establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the passenger flow of the old people in a limited full free and limited half-price scheme according to the following formula:
wherein, Va3For the elderly adopting a scheme of full free with limited amount and half price with limited amount, n1The number of annual average trips of the senior card passengers is an unlimited full free and unlimited half price scheme2The annual average trip times of the aged card passengers are unlimited free and unlimited half-price plan0The preferential times are defined for the card for the elderly and the senior every year;
establishing a passenger flow calculation model, and calculating the old public transport passenger flow of the crowded line charging scheme at the peak time according to the following formula:
Va4＝Vb-α1*β1*P1*Vb1-α2*β2*P2*Vb2
wherein alpha is1Beta is the proportion of the passenger flow of the senior citizen card in the morning and evening peak period to the passenger flow of the senior citizen card all day1The proportion of the passenger flow of the senior card in the whole bus line is P1The charge scheme for the congested line in the peak period is the card passenger flow descending proportion, alpha2The proportion of the old card passenger flow in the morning and evening peak time period to the old card passenger flow in the whole day is beta2The proportion of the old card passenger flow of the crowded bus line to the old card passenger flow of the whole bus line is P2The proportion of the old card passenger flow is reduced for the charging scheme of the crowded line at the peak time;
the government financial expenditure calculation module calculates the government financial expenditures of different preferential schemes by establishing a financial expenditure calculation model; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating the financial expenditure of the comprehensive old-age subsidy scheme according to the following formula:
by adopting the mode of issuing subsidies through the senior citizen card, the financial expenditure of the comprehensive senior citizen subsidy scheme is as follows:
Fa1＝365*p*N1*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
wherein, Fa1For financial expenditure in the case of an integrated old age allowance scheme, N1Holding the amount of card for the elderly f1The number of daily trips per card is pcIs a normal bus fare, p is a preferential bus fare of the senior card and the aged card, Fb2The financial expenditure for subsidizing the old card by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme is realized;
the mode of distributing all the old people over 70 years old is adopted, and the financial expenditure of the comprehensive old-age subsidy scheme is as follows:
Fa1＝365*p*N2*f1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Fb2
wherein, Fa1For financial expenditure in the case of an integrated old age allowance scheme, N2The number of the aged over 70 years old;
establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating the financial expenditure of the peak-shifting preferential scheme according to the following formula:
Fa2＝Fb+365*p*N1*f1*γ+365*(pc-p)*N3*f1*γ-365*pc*η1*Vm1
wherein, Fa2To adopt financial expenditure of peak-off preferential schemes, FbFor the financial expenditure adopting the scheme of unlimited full free and unlimited half price, gamma is the early peak trip proportion of the senior card, and N is3The number of the card for the aged who is active every day;
establishing a financial expense calculation model, and calculating the financial expenses of the limited full free and limited half-price scheme according to the following formula:
wherein, Fa3The financial expenditure is limited by adopting a limited full free and limited half-price scheme;
establishing a financial expenditure calculation model, and calculating the financial expenditure of the charging scheme of the crowded line in the peak period according to the following formula:
Fa4＝Fb+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N1+365*(pc-p)*α1*β1*f1*N3-(pc-p)*α1*β1*p1*Vb1+(p-pN)*α2*β2*p2*Vb2
wherein p isNIt is a general IC card eight-fold preferential ticket price.
The public transport enterprise income calculation module calculates the income of the public transport enterprises with different preferential schemes by establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the public transport enterprise income of the comprehensive old allowance scheme according to the following formula:
Ia1＝p*λ1*Vb1+(pc-p)*λ1*Vb1+Ib2
wherein, Ia1For the income of public transport enterprises adopting the comprehensive allowance scheme for the aged, Ib2The method is a subsidy for the old cards received by public transport enterprises by adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the income of the public transport enterprise adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme according to the following formula:
Ib＝Ib1+Ib2+p*Vb2
wherein, IbThe income of the public transport enterprise adopting the unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme；Ib1The card subsidy is the senior card subsidy received by public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
calculating the income of the public transport enterprise of the peak-shifting preferential scheme according to the following formula:
Ia2＝Ib+365*p*N3*f1*α-365*pc*η1*Vm1
wherein, Ia2For public transport income adopting peak shifting preferential scheme, IbThe method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting an unlimited full free and unlimited half-price scheme;
establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the income of the public transport enterprise with limited total free and limited half-price schemes according to the following formula:
wherein, Ia3The method is the income of public transport enterprises adopting a scheme of limited full free and limited half price;
establishing a public transport enterprise income calculation model, and calculating the public transport enterprise income of the crowded line charging scheme in the peak period according to the following formula:
Ia4＝Ib+365*p*α1*β1*f1*N3-pc*α1*β1*p1*Vb1+pN*α2*β2*(1-p2)*Vb2+[p-pN-p2*(pc-pN)]*α2*β2*Vb2
wherein, Ia4The method is used for the income of the public transport enterprises adopting the scheme of charging for the crowded lines in the peak hours.
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