CN112990501A - Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment method - Google Patents

Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment method Download PDF

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CN112990501A
CN112990501A CN202110374576.4A CN202110374576A CN112990501A CN 112990501 A CN112990501 A CN 112990501A CN 202110374576 A CN202110374576 A CN 202110374576A CN 112990501 A CN112990501 A CN 112990501A
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彭维仕
梁存华
李雨喧
冯荣荣
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Engineering University of Chinese Peoples Armed Police Force
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Abstract

The invention discloses a Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment method, which comprises the following steps of: s1, establishing a Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment index system; s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment guarantee capability; and S3, evaluating the maintenance guarantee capability of the universal vehicle equipment through the comprehensive evaluation model. The comprehensive assessment model of the general vehicle equipment guarantee capability is established, and more scientific and reasonable assessment results are obtained; in addition, the accuracy of the method is verified by evaluating the maintenance guarantee capability of general vehicle equipment of a certain unit, and the result shows that the evaluation index established by the method is objective, effective, scientific and reasonable, the obtained evaluation result is more accurate, and the method has guiding significance for evaluating the efficiency of the equipment and strengthening the construction of the maintenance guarantee capability of the vehicle equipment.

Description

Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment method
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of system performance evaluation, and particularly relates to a Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation method.
Background
Nowadays, the status of equipment protection in the war is more and more important, and the protection capability of the equipment protection can even directly influence the trend of the war. Vehicle equipment maintenance and repair is the collective term for technical measures and institutional security activities to be taken to maintain, restore the state of art to the integrity of military equipment and to improve the performance of the equipment for purposes of combat, training and other missions. The maintenance support of the universal vehicle equipment is an important component in modern logistics construction, and whether the maintenance support capability of the universal vehicle equipment meets the requirements of ordinary times and wartime needs to be evaluated.
At present, the general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment method mainly comprises the following steps: analytic hierarchy process, group fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, grey evaluation method, ideal point method (TOPSIS), cloud model method, neural network evaluation method, etc. In the aspect of general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability (or equipment maintenance support capability) evaluation, the problems of inaccurate index system construction and unscientific evaluation method exist.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment method, and aims to solve the problem that the construction of a current assessment index system is not scientific enough.
The invention is realized in such a way that a Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment method comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing a Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment index system;
s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment guarantee capability;
and S3, evaluating the maintenance guarantee capability of the universal vehicle equipment through the comprehensive evaluation model.
Preferably, step S1 includes the steps of:
s11, determining the principle of establishing an evaluation index system;
s12, establishing an initial set of general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment indexes;
s13, screening the general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment indexes based on Delphi.
Preferably, step S2 includes the steps of:
s21, establishing a universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation matrix;
s22, calculating the weight of the evaluation index;
and S23, establishing a vehicle equipment guarantee capability evaluation model.
Preferably, step S21 includes the steps of:
s211, grading the vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability elements and establishing an evaluation index set;
s212, determining a comment grade set;
and S213, calculating a quantitative index single-factor evaluation matrix.
Compared with the defects and shortcomings of the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: aiming at the problem that the construction of the current evaluation index system is not scientific enough, the invention establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment guarantee capability and obtains more scientific and reasonable evaluation results; in addition, the accuracy of the method is verified by evaluating the maintenance guarantee capability of general vehicle equipment of a certain unit, and the result shows that the evaluation index established by the method is objective, effective, scientific and reasonable, the obtained evaluation result is more accurate, and the method has guiding significance for evaluating the efficiency of the equipment and strengthening the construction of the maintenance guarantee capability of the vehicle equipment.
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FIG. 1 is a flowchart illustrating the steps of a Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment method according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a classification of universal vehicle equipment maintenance support performance indicators in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a pre-selection system of performance evaluation indexes for maintenance support of general vehicle equipment according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating the performance evaluation index covered by the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support performance evaluation index system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a diagram of membership of quantization index values to various levels in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment method, which comprises the following steps of:
s1, establishing a Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment index system
In step S1, the present invention combs the actual operations of establishing a general vehicle equipment maintenance and safeguard performance evaluation index system, and divides the operations into determining the principle of establishing the evaluation index system, establishing an initial set of general vehicle equipment maintenance and safeguard performance evaluation indexes, and screening the Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance and safeguard performance evaluation indexes. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
s11, determining the principle of establishing an evaluation index system
The establishment of the index system is a basic and important work, and objective and fair evaluation results can be obtained only through scientific and reasonable establishment of the evaluation index system. Certain principles should be followed during selection and rejection of indexes, which cannot be assumed subjectively, and meanwhile, a scientific selection method is a guarantee for establishing a reasonable evaluation index system.
Therefore, in step S11, the principle of establishing the vehicle equipment maintenance and safeguard capability assessment index system is determined as follows: the index system should comprehensively reflect the main aspects of the evaluation object, and its structure depends on the decision purpose, the nature of the decision scheme, etc. The more comprehensive the index system is, the more objective and reasonable the decision result is, but too many indexes increase the complexity and difficulty of evaluation, bring more constraints to the establishment of an evaluation model, and especially the calculation of data grows exponentially. Therefore, the more indexes the better the evaluation index system is determined, and the key point for selecting the indexes is the size of the function of the indexes in evaluation.
S12, establishing an initial set of general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment indexes
In step S12, the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support performance index is classified with reference to the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support characteristic and the construction principle of the evaluation index system, with the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support comprehensive performance index as the analysis key point, as shown in fig. 2.
According to the hierarchical structure divided by the figure 2, on the basis of the experience and the achievement obtained in the aspect of determining research by the equipment quality evaluation index system, the particularity of the maintenance guarantee of the general vehicle equipment is combined, the expert scoring method is adopted, the opinions of the experts are widely requested, the importance of the provided maintenance guarantee evaluation index of the general vehicle equipment is scored according to the experts, the opinion concentration and opinion co-scheduling of the experts are examined, and the index of a preselected index set is screened according to the index values of the expert and the expert. By the method, a general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee effectiveness evaluation index preselection system is established, and is shown in FIG. 3.
Suppose n experts, m indices, xijThe score of j index (i is 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, …, M) of the ith expert is expressed, and the average M of the scores of the indexes is obtainedjAnd standard deviation Sj：
Figure BDA0003010665710000041
And
Figure BDA0003010665710000042
the coefficient of variation formula is:
Figure BDA0003010665710000043
in formula (3): mjFor expert concentration, MjLarger, family opinion set of j-indicesThe higher the degree; vjFor expert opinion co-scheduling, VjThe smaller the j index, the higher the expert opinion coordination degree of the j index.
S13 Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment index screening
Step S13 specifically includes the following steps:
s131, analyzing and processing primary scoring results
Aiming at 37 preselected basic indexes at the bottom layer, an expert consulting table is made, 5 experts with rich experience in the aspect of vehicle equipment maintenance and guarantee are selected, the experts are consulted for index selection conditions about performance evaluation of general vehicle equipment maintenance and guarantee, the importance of the preselected indexes is scored (shown in the following table 1), and the questionnaire survey results of the preselected evaluation indexes are preselected (shown in the following table 2).
TABLE 1 PRE-SELECTED EVALUATION INDICATOR INDEX TAKING TABLE
Figure BDA0003010665710000051
TABLE 2 results of questionnaires for preselected evaluation indices
Figure BDA0003010665710000052
Figure BDA0003010665710000061
The 'opinion concentration' of the expert is expressed by the arithmetic mean value of the scores obtained by each index, and the 'opinion co-scheduling' of the expert is expressed by the coefficient of variation. Therefore, M is calculated by the following equations (1) to (3)jAnd VjAnd then, further screening and correcting the index frame and the index connotation according to the condition of index screening and the specific opinion of experts. Wherein the condition of index screening is as follows:
Mj≥1.35&Vj≤0.6 (4)
according to the results of the expert questionnaire survey, the technical staff allocation rate, the technical staff title rate, the technical staff allocation rate, the technical skill level, the management staff allocation rate, the management staff title rate, the regulation and practice situation, the maintenance facility full-filling rate, the maintenance facility quantity allocation rate, the maintenance equipment quantity allocation rate, the maintenance equipment completion rate, the maintenance equipment allocation rate, the maintenance equipment quantity allocation rate, the maintenance equipment completion rate, the maintenance equipment continuous supply stress, the technical data allocation rate, the technical data quantity allocation rate, the maintenance information collection capacity, the maintenance information processing capacity, the computer resource software allocation rate, the computer resource applicability, the availability of the computer system output results, the maintenance plan feasibility, the maintenance plan execution degree, the temporary maintenance plan making, the technical data allocation rate, the maintenance information processing capacity, the computer resource software allocation rate, the computer resource applicability, the computer system output result availability, the maintenance plan, And taking 34 indexes such as equipment repair rate, equipment repair failure rate, maintenance personnel participation rate, maintenance equipment management condition, maintenance facility maintenance condition, maintenance resource scheduling coordination capacity and the like as preliminary evaluation indexes.
S132, analyzing and processing secondary scoring results
Through the full communication with the backbone and the technology of the army equipment use and maintenance management service, the opinions of army use and maintenance technicians are fully heard by combining the characteristics of functions, structures, use and the like of all levels of evaluation objects, the evaluation object range of different levels of general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee is determined, a questionnaire investigation method is adopted for 34 screened indexes again, the corresponding characteristic of each index is converted into an expression form of the army use requirement, and the screening of the selected indexes is divided into four levels of important (4), important (3), general (2) and unimportant (1) according to the specific conditions of users and managers for the army use units. The key indicators of the army concerned in the use stage of the questionnaire are distributed, and the questionnaire is prepared as shown in table 3:
TABLE 3 opinion Table of preselected index of Using Unit
Figure BDA0003010665710000071
S133, determining general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability evaluation index system
By screening the results obtained by the unit questionnaire used by the team, the "opinion concentration" and "opinion co-scheduling" are applied again to the screening results, and 33 indexes are obtained in the index system for general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee efficiency evaluation, as shown in fig. 4.
From FIG. 4, let A1,A2,…,AmDenotes m evaluation subjects, C1,C2,…,CnDenotes n indices, xijRepresents the ith object AiCorresponding to the jth index CjIs 1,2, …, m, j is 1,2, …, n), the vehicle equipment maintenance capability raw evaluation matrix is:
Figure BDA0003010665710000081
s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment guarantee capability
After the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation index system is obtained, the steps of the embodiment of the invention further establish a universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation model. The universal vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability has the influence of both qualitative factors and uncertain factors. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted in the embodiment of the invention, the main fuzziness index of the vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability can be effectively quantified, and a comprehensive evaluation mathematical model is established, so that the evaluation is more scientific and reasonable, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is also a commonly used evaluation method at present. This step S2 more specifically includes the steps of:
s21, establishing a universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation matrix
S211, through the analysis of the elements of the vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability, 4 elements influencing the total target T (the index of the vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability) can be taken as the first level of the equipment guarantee capability evaluation factor layer and are respectively marked as C1、C2、C3、C4Then S is1、S2、S3、S4，S5、…、S11And the second level of the equipment guarantee ability evaluation factor layer. The set of evaluation indexes is:
T＝{C1︱S1S2；C2︱S3S4S5；C3︱S6S7S8；C4︱S9S10S11} (6)
s212, determining a comment grade set
As shown in fig. 4, most of the indexes in the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment index system are qualitative indexes, and therefore, a certain standard needs to be adopted for measurement, so that the requirement of research on problems can be met, and the requirement of reality can be met. According to the statistical results of vehicle equipment maintenance support work for many years, on the basis of multi-aspect expert opinion solicitation and questionnaire survey solicitation, four evaluation grades of excellent, good, medium and poor are determined, namely a general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation comment set can be expressed as:
P＝{P1when becoming better, P2Good, P3In (1), P4Difference } (7)
S213, calculating a quantitative index single-factor evaluation matrix
According to the determined fuzzy comment set and according to the expert opinions and questionnaire survey results, the value range of each comment grade can be determined as follows: and (3) excellent: more than 90%, good: 70% -90%, medium: 60% -70%, difference: less than 60 percent. In order to effectively solve the unreasonable phenomenon caused by grade jump of two connected areas, the data in the process is subjected to fuzzy processing by adopting a fuzzy processing mode: namely, the middle point of each grade interval is taken as a demarcation point, and when the index is positioned at the middle point of the interval, the membership degree of the index to the grade is 1; when the index is positioned at the middle point of the adjacent interval, the membership degree of the index to the corresponding grade is 0. The membership degree relationship of the quantization index values to each level is shown in fig. 5.
Wherein, the mathematical expression of the membership function of each index comment in fig. 5 is:
Figure BDA0003010665710000091
Figure BDA0003010665710000092
Figure BDA0003010665710000093
and
Figure BDA0003010665710000094
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003010665710000095
and (4) representing the scoring result of the jth index of the ith system by the kth expert.
Selecting the j index x of N experts to the i systemijScoring is performed assuming that there is N1The expert considers the index xijThe corresponding scoring results are:
Figure BDA0003010665710000096
with N2The expert considers the index xijAs good, the corresponding scoring results are:
Figure BDA0003010665710000097
with N3The expert considers the index xijIn this case, the corresponding scoring results are:
Figure BDA0003010665710000101
with N4The expert considers the index xijFor a difference, the corresponding scoring result is:
Figure BDA0003010665710000102
wherein
N＝N1+N2+N3+N4 (16)
The final scoring result is then:
Figure BDA0003010665710000103
the final result of expert scoring is:
Figure BDA0003010665710000104
s22, calculating the weight of the evaluation index
The number of factors in the vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment index system is small, an expert scoring method mode is directly adopted, and the weight coefficient of each index is directly determined by using expert investigation. The method comprises the specific steps of arranging first-level and second-level indexes of the vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability into a table, distributing all the indexes to expert groups participating in assessment for investigation and scoring, comprehensively processing weight data of all the indexes given by the expert groups, and finally determining the weight of each level of index.
The index evaluation matrix obtained by expert scoring is assumed to be:
Figure BDA0003010665710000105
solving the eigenvector of the evaluation matrix can obtain:
FZ＝λZ (20)
for the above feature vector
Figure BDA0003010665710000106
Normalization is carried out as follows:
Figure BDA0003010665710000111
s23, establishing a vehicle equipment guarantee capability evaluation model
The evaluation matrix is obtained from equations (18) and (21):
Figure BDA0003010665710000112
therefore, the vehicle equipment securing ability evaluation model can be obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0003010665710000113
according to a preset comment set P ═ (P)1,P2,P3,P4) The evaluation result can be obtained.
S3, evaluating the maintenance guarantee capability of the universal vehicle equipment through the comprehensive evaluation model
In order to verify the index evaluation index system and the corresponding model in the step S2, a unit is determined as a task unit, and in step S3, the universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability of the unit is evaluated by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
And carrying out single-factor fuzzy evaluation according to the established vehicle equipment maintenance support index system and the established comprehensive evaluation comment set, and solving an evaluation matrix R. Starting from the third-level evaluation index, the second-level index is calculated, and the single-factor evaluation data of the third-level evaluation index is determined according to the single-factor membership function, which is shown in the table 4:
TABLE 4 comprehensive evaluation index system for vehicle equipment maintenance support effectiveness
Figure BDA0003010665710000114
Figure BDA0003010665710000121
Selecting experts to respectively determine the three-level index weights of the unit universal vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee efficiency evaluation, and obtaining the index weights of all levels as shown in table 5:
TABLE 5 Universal vehicle Equipment maintenance guarantee Performance evaluation index weights
Figure BDA0003010665710000122
Firstly, calculating a secondary index evaluation matrix:
Figure BDA0003010665710000131
in the same manner, the following can be obtained:
Figure BDA0003010665710000132
obtaining an evaluation matrix of the first-level index according to the evaluation matrix of the second-level index, as shown in table 6:
TABLE 6 first-class index evaluation data
Figure BDA0003010665710000133
Figure BDA0003010665710000134
Similarly, it can be calculated that:
Figure BDA0003010665710000135
the evaluation result of the maintenance guarantee efficiency of the unit general vehicle equipment is as follows:
Figure BDA0003010665710000141
the results of this evaluation show that: 68% of the experts are considered "good", 18% are considered "good", 10% are considered "medium" and 4% are considered "poor". According to the principle of maximum membership degree, the unit universal vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability is good.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents and improvements made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. A Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, establishing a Delphi-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment index system;
s2, establishing a comprehensive evaluation model of the general vehicle equipment guarantee capability;
and S3, evaluating the maintenance guarantee capability of the universal vehicle equipment through the comprehensive evaluation model.
2. The Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment service safeguard capability assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 comprises the steps of:
s11, determining the principle of establishing an evaluation index system;
s12, establishing an initial set of general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment indexes;
s13, screening the general vehicle equipment maintenance support capability assessment indexes based on Delphi.
3. The Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment service safeguard capability assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 comprises the steps of:
s21, establishing a universal vehicle equipment maintenance support capability evaluation matrix;
s22, calculating the weight of the evaluation index;
and S23, establishing a vehicle equipment guarantee capability evaluation model.
4. The Delphi-FCE-based universal vehicle equipment service safeguard capability assessment method according to claim 3, wherein the step S21 comprises the steps of:
s211, grading the vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability elements and establishing an evaluation index set;
s212, determining a comment grade set;
and S213, calculating a quantitative index single-factor evaluation matrix.
CN202110374576.4A 2021-04-07 2021-04-07 Delphi-FCE-based general vehicle equipment maintenance guarantee capability assessment method Pending CN112990501A (en)

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Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102663508A (en) * 2012-05-08 2012-09-12 东北电力科学研究院有限公司 Intelligent grid comprehensive evaluating system based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
CN108647875A (en) * 2018-05-04 2018-10-12 国网河北省电力有限公司 A kind of regional power grid evaluation method based on expert's entropy assessment
CN110119904A (en) * 2019-05-22 2019-08-13 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 A kind of Warships Equipment Maintenance Evaluation in Support Ability method and system

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102663508A (en) * 2012-05-08 2012-09-12 东北电力科学研究院有限公司 Intelligent grid comprehensive evaluating system based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
CN108647875A (en) * 2018-05-04 2018-10-12 国网河北省电力有限公司 A kind of regional power grid evaluation method based on expert's entropy assessment
CN110119904A (en) * 2019-05-22 2019-08-13 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 A kind of Warships Equipment Maintenance Evaluation in Support Ability method and system

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