CN112270503A - Construction risk evolution system, construction method and construction risk assessment method - Google Patents
Construction risk evolution system, construction method and construction risk assessment method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present disclosure relates to a construction risk evolution system, a construction method, and a construction risk assessment method, the construction risk evolution system including: the system comprises an engineering self subsystem, an environment subsystem and an organization management subsystem; the project self subsystem is used for evaluating the construction project based on the project self risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to the organization management subsystem; the environment subsystem is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem; and the organization management subsystem is used for determining the change relation of the construction project risk level along with time based on the evaluation result, the calculation result and the organization management type risk source data. According to the technical scheme of the embodiment of the disclosure, the accuracy and the sensitivity of risk assessment can be improved, and the tracing of risk evolution accidents is realized.
Description
Technical Field
The disclosure relates to the technical field of construction risk assessment, and in particular relates to a construction risk evolution system, a construction method and a construction risk assessment method.
Background
The construction risks are various risks existing in the process of the construction enterprise organization engaging in production and operation activities. Risk management is an important means for enterprises to avoid failure and win success, and the risk management of construction enterprises also becomes a permanent topic.
An important step in risk management is the assessment of construction risk. At present, construction risk assessment is carried out by workers according to work experience. In specific evaluation, the construction risk is usually evaluated only from a certain angle (such as a construction project design scheme). However, in practice, engineering construction is an extremely complex process, multiple natural sciences are designed, technical sciences are involved, the characteristics of multidisciplinary intersection are achieved, and the overall risk evaluation requirement of engineering complexity cannot be met only by relying on a single angle to carry out risk evolution evaluation.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the above technical problem or at least partially solve the above technical problem, the present disclosure provides a construction risk evolution system, a construction method, and a construction risk assessment method.
In a first aspect, the present disclosure provides a construction risk evolution system, comprising: the system comprises an engineering self subsystem, an environment subsystem and an organization management subsystem;
the project self subsystem is used for evaluating the construction project based on the project self risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to the organization management subsystem;
the environment subsystem is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem;
the organization management subsystem is used for establishing a construction risk factor index system based on the organization management risk source data and calculating the weight of each organization management risk factor based on an analytic hierarchy process; analyzing the causal relationship among the organization management risk factors and establishing a causal relationship graph; determining a flow position flow rate and a variable set based on the evaluation result, the calculation result, the organization management risk source data and the weight thereof; drawing a system flow diagram based on the causal relationship diagram, the flow position flow rate and the variable set to form a system dynamic model matched with a construction project; and further, the engineering self subsystem is specifically used for evaluating the construction project by utilizing a mutation series method and outputting the evaluation result to the organization management subsystem.
Further, the environmental subsystem is specifically configured to:
establishing a mixed probability risk assessment model of the construction surrounding environment by utilizing a fault tree/event tree, a fuzzy theory and a Bayesian network method based on the environment risk source data;
and calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the mixed probability risk assessment model, and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem.
Further, the mixed probability risk assessment model is provided with a reserved data interface, and the reserved data interface is used for supplementing environment risk source data.
Further, the device further comprises a first adjusting unit, configured to:
acquiring the change relation of the construction project risk level output by the organization management subsystem along with time;
and adjusting the risk source data of the engineering self type based on the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with the time, and outputting an adjustment result to the subsystem of the engineering self.
Further, the device further comprises a second adjusting unit, configured to:
acquiring the change relation of the construction project risk level output by the organization management subsystem along with time;
and adjusting the environmental risk source data based on the change relation of the construction project risk level along with time, and outputting an adjustment result to the environmental subsystem.
In a second aspect, the present disclosure further provides a construction risk evolution system construction method, including:
acquiring risk source data of construction, wherein the risk source data of the construction comprises risk source data of engineering self, risk source data of environment and risk source data of organization and management;
constructing an engineering self subsystem, wherein the engineering self subsystem is used for evaluating the construction project based on the engineering self risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to an organization management subsystem;
constructing an environment subsystem, wherein the environment subsystem is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to an organization management subsystem;
constructing an organization management subsystem, wherein the organization management subsystem is used for establishing a construction risk factor index system based on organization management risk source data and calculating the weight of each organization management risk factor based on an analytic hierarchy process; analyzing the causal relationship among the organization management risk factors and establishing a causal relationship graph; determining a flow position flow rate and a variable set based on the evaluation result, the calculation result, the organization management risk source data and the weight thereof; drawing a system flow diagram based on the causal relationship diagram, the flow position flow rate and the variable set to form a system dynamic model matched with a construction project; and determining the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with time based on a system dynamic model matched with the construction project.
In a third aspect, the present disclosure further provides a construction risk assessment method, including:
acquiring initial risk source data of construction number to be evaluated;
inputting the initial risk source data into any one of the construction risk evolution systems provided by the embodiments of the present disclosure;
and acquiring the change relation of the construction item risk level output by the construction risk evolution system along with time.
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the disclosure has the following advantages:
the three subsystems in the construction risk evolution system provided by the embodiment of the disclosure are partially crossed and interacted, and related factors are correlated and influenced, so that fusion and adjustment of system data are realized. And a monitoring index and a reserved index data interface are added into the risk index, so that the risk rating is dynamically adjusted along with the construction process.
The construction risk evolution system provided by the embodiment of the disclosure adopts three subsystem models for analyzing risk factors, fully exerts the advantages of multiple risk assessment methods, improves the sensitivity of the risk factors, realizes the tracing of risk evolution accidents, and can realize the real-time feedback of the system.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present disclosure and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the disclosure.
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments or technical solutions in the prior art of the present disclosure, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of a construction risk evolution system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a mixed probability risk assessment model of a construction environment according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
fig. 3 is a flowchart of a construction risk evolution system construction method provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure;
fig. 4 is a flowchart of a construction risk assessment method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the present disclosure may be more clearly understood, aspects of the present disclosure will be further described below. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present disclosure may be combined with each other without conflict.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present disclosure, but the present disclosure may be practiced in other ways than those described herein; it is to be understood that the embodiments disclosed in the specification are only a few embodiments of the present disclosure, and not all embodiments.
As described in the background art, in the existing engineering construction risk assessment method, a worker is mostly used to perform construction risk assessment according to work experience. In specific evaluation, evaluation is usually performed only from a certain angle (such as a construction project design scheme), but engineering construction is an extremely complex process, which not only relates to social science of organization management, natural science of geological environment, but also to technical science of design, construction and the like, and has the characteristic of typical multidisciplinary intersection, and the risk evolution evaluation only depending on a single angle cannot meet the overall risk evaluation requirement of engineering complexity.
In view of this, the present disclosure provides a construction risk evolution system. Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of a construction risk evolution system provided in an embodiment of the present disclosure. Referring to fig. 1, the construction risk evolution system includes: an engineering self subsystem 1, an environment subsystem 2 and an organization management subsystem 3. And the project self subsystem 1 is used for evaluating the construction project based on the project self risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to the organization management subsystem 3. And the environment subsystem 2 is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem 3. The organization management subsystem 3 is used for establishing a construction risk factor index system based on the organization management risk source data and calculating the weight of each organization management risk factor based on an analytic hierarchy process; analyzing the causal relationship among the organization management risk factors and establishing a causal relationship graph; determining a flow position flow rate and a variable set based on the evaluation result, the calculation result, the organization management risk source data and the weight thereof; drawing a system flow diagram based on the causal relationship diagram, the flow position flow rate and the variable set to form a system dynamic model matched with a construction project; and determining the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with time based on a system dynamic model matched with the construction project.
The risk source data refers to values of factors (hereinafter referred to as risk factors) affecting safety accidents. Illustratively, risk factors may include, but are not limited to, construction method, construction procedure, formation water, frozen earth, formation porosity, constructor skill level, constructor health, and the like. The term "value" is understood to mean the result of quantifying the risk factor. In practice, for risk factors (such as formation porosity ratio and formation water content) that can be directly monitored, a monitoring result can be directly used as a value of the risk factor, that is, risk source data. Risk factors (construction method and construction process) which cannot be directly monitored can be scored by experts, and scoring results are used as values of the risk factors, namely risk source data.
The project self-class risk source data refers to values of project self-class risk factors. The project self risk factor refers to a risk factor capable of reflecting the self characteristics of the project, such as a construction method, a construction procedure and the like.
The environment type risk source data refers to values of environment type risk factors. The environment type risk factors refer to risk factors capable of reflecting construction environments, such as stratum water content, frozen soil, stratum porosity and the like.
The organization and management type risk source data refers to values of organization and management type risk factors. The organization management type risk factors refer to risk factors capable of reflecting the organization management conditions of construction projects, such as the technical level of constructors, the health conditions of the constructors and the like.
When the construction risk evolution system is constructed, risk factors are determined according to the characteristics of engineering. Illustratively, the risk factor may be determined based on the worker's working experience. Optionally, construction accident sample data can be acquired; and acquiring risk factors of construction based on the construction accident sample data. Illustratively, engineering construction accident cases which occur over the years are counted through document reference, internet search and other modes, classified collection is carried out according to different accident types, main construction risks are analyzed from the aspects of engineering self structure, design, construction, management, geology, environment and the like, and risk factors are determined. Optionally, the risk factors of the engineering self class, the risk factors of the environment class and the risk factors of the organization management class can be identified by using a Bayesian method.
It should be noted that the risk factors involved may be different for different construction projects. Therefore, when acquiring the construction accident sample data, construction accident data similar to the construction project to be evaluated should be acquired as the construction accident sample data. For example, if the construction project is an underground space construction project, an underground space construction accident case occurring in approximately 10 years may be selected as the construction accident sample data.
In practice, the importance, i.e., weight, of each risk factor (including the engineering self risk factor, the environmental risk factor, and the organization management risk factor) may be further determined. The risk source data can be conveniently processed by subsequent subsystems (such as the engineering self subsystem 1, the environment subsystem 2 and the organization management subsystem 3) by the arrangement, and the accuracy of risk evolution analysis can be improved.
Furthermore, the proportion of accidents caused by various risk factors to the total accidents can be analyzed based on construction accident sample data, and the importance of the risk factors is determined according to the proportion.
The essence of the technical scheme is that different subsystems are utilized to select different risk evolution methods according to different action mechanisms of risk sources on safety risks, so that the problem that the overall risk evaluation requirement of engineering complexity cannot be met by only depending on a single angle to carry out risk evolution evaluation is solved, the accuracy and sensitivity of risk evaluation can be improved, and the traceability tracking of risk evolution accidents is realized.
It should be noted that, if the engineering self class, the environmental class and the organization management class are regarded as three risk factor classes, in practice, one risk factor may belong to one risk factor class or may belong to a plurality of risk factor classes. This is because these three risk factor categories have no distinct boundaries. Therefore, the same risk factor belongs to both the engineering self-system and the environment-system, and in this case, the value corresponding to the risk factor is simultaneously input into the engineering self-system 1 and the environment-system 2. Similarly, if the same risk factor belongs to both the environment class and the organization management class, the value corresponding to the risk factor is input to the environment subsystem 2 and the organization management subsystem 3. If the same risk factor belongs to the engineering self-class and the organization management class, the value corresponding to the risk factor is simultaneously input into the engineering self-subsystem 1 and the organization management subsystem 3. If the same risk factor belongs to the engineering self-class, the environment class and the organization management class, in this case, the value corresponding to the risk factor is simultaneously input into the engineering self-subsystem 1, the environment subsystem 2 and the organization management subsystem 3.
In the above technical solution, optionally, the engineering self-subsystem 1 is specifically configured to evaluate the construction project by using a mutation level method, and output an evaluation result to the organization management subsystem 3.
Illustratively, the engineering self-subsystem is specifically configured to: firstly, risk factors corresponding to the project self-type risk source data input into the project self-subsystem are sorted according to weight, and then an evaluation index system is constructed. Illustratively, the evaluation index system may be set to include at least two levels of indexes. The purpose of setting the hierarchy is to comb the risk factors input into the engineering subsystem. And secondly, selecting mutation types according to the quantity of indexes at each level, then carrying out normalization operation evaluation based on the self risk source data of each project, and carrying out upward operation step by the indexes at the bottom layer to obtain the total membership function value of the system. And utilizing the total membership function value as an evaluation result for evaluating the construction project.
The essence of the arrangement is that a mutation series method is used for modeling and analyzing self factors such as design, construction, geology, engineering structure scale and the like and characteristics of dynamic, nonlinear and irreversible evolution of the self factors, and the risk factors faced by the self factors are analyzed, so that the purpose of evaluating the construction project is finally achieved.
The environmental subsystem is specifically configured to: establishing a mixed probability risk assessment model of the construction surrounding environment by utilizing a fault tree/event tree, a fuzzy theory and a Bayesian network method based on the environment risk source data; and calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the mixed probability risk assessment model, and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem.
The environment subsystem is mainly arranged to quantify the influence degree and loss degree of the construction on the surrounding environment. It should be noted that, the surrounding environment of different construction projects includes different contents, and the present disclosure does not limit this. For example, if the construction project is an underground construction project, the surrounding environment mainly includes surrounding buildings, roads, pipelines, etc., and in this case, the environmental subsystem 2 is mainly configured to quantify how the construction affects and loses the surrounding buildings, pipelines, roads, etc.
Because the safety risk analysis of construction is based on historical objective data and also combines with subjective judgment of experts, how to utilize the two types of data is the key for establishing a mixed probability risk assessment model of construction surrounding environment. In the above scheme, "a mixed probability risk assessment model of the construction surrounding environment is established based on the environment-type risk source data by using a fault tree/event tree, a fuzzy theory and a bayesian network method", specifically, a structure of the bayesian network is established by using a fault tree/event tree analysis based on the environment-type risk source data, a fuzzy theory quantitative expert is used for judging and serving as a conditional probability table of the bayesian network, and a final risk assessment result is inferred by using the bayesian network, that is, the mixed probability risk assessment model of the construction surrounding environment is formed.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a mixed probability risk assessment model of a construction surrounding environment according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. In FIG. 2, X1-X17 and M1-M5 are risk factors. Illustratively, in fig. 2, the mixed probability risk assessment model is provided with reserved data interfaces (i.e., other 1, other 2, and other 3 in fig. 2) for environment-based risk source data supplementation. Because, in practice, the construction risk assessment is throughout the progress of the construction project. With the continuous advance of construction projects, risk factors needing to be considered in different time periods are slightly different, a mixed probability risk assessment model does not need to be reconstructed by arranging the reserved data interface, only newly-added environment risk source data need to be supplemented by the reserved data interface, the difficulty of the whole construction risk assessment can be simplified, and the timeliness of the construction risk assessment is ensured.
Optionally, with continued reference to fig. 1, in the above technical solution, the construction risk evolution system further includes a first adjusting unit 4, configured to: acquiring the time-varying relation of the construction project risk level output by the organization management subsystem 3; and adjusting the risk source data of the engineering self type based on the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with the time, and outputting the adjustment result to the subsystem 1 of the engineering self type. The essence of the setting is that the feedback adjustment of the self-type risk source data of the engineering is realized, the optimal solution of the self-type risk source data of the engineering is obtained, and the risk of the whole construction project is ensured to be controllable.
It should be noted that, adjusting the engineering self-type risk source data mainly means adjusting values of some original engineering self-type risk factors.
Similarly, with continued reference to fig. 1, in the above solution, the construction risk evolution system further comprises a second adjusting unit 5 for: acquiring the time-varying relation of the construction project risk level output by the organization management subsystem 3; and adjusting the environment risk source data based on the change relation of the construction project risk level along with time, and outputting an adjustment result to the environment subsystem 2. The essence of the setting is that the feedback adjustment of the environment risk source data is realized, the optimal solution of the environment risk source data is obtained, and the risk of the whole construction project is ensured to be controllable.
It should be noted that adjusting the environmental risk source data mainly means determining remedial or preventive measures according to the change relationship of the construction project risk level along with time, and adjusting the value of some original environmental risk factors based on the remedial or preventive measures; or to adjust (e.g., add, delete, etc.) the type of environmental risk factors input to the environmental subsystem.
According to the technical scheme, the three subsystem models can be integrated, and a construction safety risk dynamic evolution model is constructed. The analysis results of the engineering subsystem and the environmental subsystem are unified in the management subsystem, are used as part of initial value variables in the simulation analysis model and are fused into an integral system, and the subsystem association factors are extracted and used as system feedback factors to form a feedback mechanism.
Compared with the prior art, the construction risk evolution system provided by the disclosure has the following advantages:
firstly, the evaluation result formed by the engineering self subsystem and the calculation result formed by the environment subsystem are input into the organization management subsystem. Also, in practice, it often occurs that the same risk factor belongs to multiple risk factor classes, so that the risk factor is input into different subsystems; alternatively, several different risk factors are causally related and these different risk factors are input into different subsystems. The conditions are combined to cause the three subsystems to be entangled, the three subsystems are partially crossed and interacted with each other, and related factors are mutually related and influenced. Which can realize the fusion and adjustment of system data. And a monitoring index and a reserved index data interface are added into the risk index, so that the risk rating is dynamically adjusted along with the construction process.
And secondly, three subsystem models for analyzing risk factors are adopted, the advantages of multiple risk assessment methods are fully exerted, the sensitivity of the risk factors is improved, the traceability tracking of risk evolution accidents is realized, and the real-time feedback of the system can be realized.
It should be noted that, in practice, due to the construction particularity of the underground space engineering, in the risk assessment process, there are many risk factors to be considered, and the technical scheme provided by the disclosure is particularly suitable for the underground engineering construction.
Based on the same inventive concept, the disclosure also provides a construction risk evolution system construction method. Fig. 3 is a flowchart of a construction risk evolution system construction method provided by an embodiment of the present disclosure. Referring to fig. 3, the construction risk evolution system construction method includes:
s110, acquiring risk source data of construction, wherein the risk source data of the construction comprises risk source data of engineering self type, risk source data of environment type and risk source data of organization and management type.
And S120, constructing a project subsystem, wherein the project subsystem is used for evaluating the construction project based on the project risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to the organization management subsystem.
S130, constructing an environment subsystem, wherein the environment subsystem is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to an organization management subsystem;
and S140. Constructing an organization management subsystem, wherein the organization management subsystem is used for establishing a construction risk factor index system based on organization management risk source data and calculating the weight of each organization management risk factor based on an analytic hierarchy process; analyzing the causal relationship among the organization management risk factors and establishing a causal relationship graph; determining a flow position flow rate and a variable set based on the evaluation result, the calculation result, the organization management risk source data and the weight thereof; drawing a system flow diagram based on the causal relationship diagram, the flow position flow rate and the variable set to form a system dynamic model matched with a construction project; and determining the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with time based on a system dynamic model matched with the construction project.
Since the construction risk evolution system construction method provided by the embodiment of the present disclosure is used for constructing any one of the construction risk evolution systems provided by the embodiment of the present disclosure, the construction risk evolution system construction method has the same or corresponding beneficial effects as the model constructed by the construction risk evolution system construction method, and details are not repeated here.
Optionally, S110 includes: acquiring construction accident sample data; and acquiring risk source data of construction based on the construction accident sample data.
Based on the same inventive concept, the disclosure also provides an evaluation method of the construction risk. Fig. 4 is a flowchart of a construction risk assessment method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. Referring to fig. 4, the method for evaluating a construction risk includes:
s210, obtaining initial risk source data of construction number to be evaluated.
S220, inputting the initial risk source data into any one construction risk evolution system provided by the embodiment of the disclosure.
And S230, acquiring the time-varying relation of the risk level of the construction project output by the construction risk evolution system.
Since the evaluation method for the construction risk provided by the embodiment of the disclosure evaluates based on any one of the construction risk evolution systems provided by the embodiments of the disclosure, the evaluation method has the same or corresponding beneficial effects as the models used therein, and details are not repeated here.
It is noted that, in this document, relational terms such as "first" and "second," and the like, may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The foregoing are merely exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure, which enable those skilled in the art to understand or practice the present disclosure. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the disclosure. Thus, the present disclosure is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (9)
1. A construction risk evolution system, comprising: the system comprises an engineering self subsystem, an environment subsystem and an organization management subsystem;
the project self subsystem is used for evaluating the construction project based on the project self risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to the organization management subsystem;
the environment subsystem is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem;
the organization management subsystem is used for establishing a construction risk factor index system based on the organization management risk source data and calculating the weight of each organization management risk factor based on an analytic hierarchy process; analyzing the causal relationship among the organization management risk factors and establishing a causal relationship graph; determining a flow position flow rate and a variable set based on the evaluation result, the calculation result, the organization management risk source data and the weight thereof; drawing a system flow diagram based on the causal relationship diagram, the flow position flow rate and the variable set to form a system dynamic model matched with a construction project; and determining the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with time based on a system dynamic model matched with the construction project.
2. The construction risk evolution system according to claim 1, wherein the engineering self subsystem is specifically configured to evaluate the construction project by using a mutation progression method, and output the evaluation result to the organization management subsystem.
3. The construction risk evolution system according to claim 1, characterized in that said environmental subsystem is particularly adapted to:
establishing a mixed probability risk assessment model of the construction surrounding environment by utilizing a fault tree/event tree, a fuzzy theory and a Bayesian network method based on the environment risk source data;
and calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on the mixed probability risk assessment model, and outputting the calculation result to the organization management subsystem.
4. The construction risk evolution system of claim 3, wherein the hybrid probability risk assessment model is provided with a reserved data interface for environmental class risk source data supplementation.
5. The construction risk evolution system according to claim 1, further comprising a first adjustment unit for:
acquiring the change relation of the construction project risk level output by the organization management subsystem along with time;
and adjusting the risk source data of the engineering self type based on the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with the time, and outputting an adjustment result to the subsystem of the engineering self.
6. The construction risk evolution system according to claim 1, further comprising a second adjustment unit for:
acquiring the change relation of the construction project risk level output by the organization management subsystem along with time;
and adjusting the environmental risk source data based on the change relation of the construction project risk level along with time, and outputting an adjustment result to the environmental subsystem.
7. A construction risk evolution system construction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring risk source data of construction, wherein the risk source data of the construction comprises risk source data of engineering self type, risk source data of environment type and risk source data of organization and management type;
constructing an engineering self subsystem, wherein the engineering self subsystem is used for evaluating the construction project based on the engineering self risk source data and outputting an evaluation result to an organization management subsystem;
constructing an environment subsystem, wherein the environment subsystem is used for calculating the risk event probability of the construction project based on environment risk source data and outputting the calculation result to an organization management subsystem;
constructing an organization management subsystem, wherein the organization management subsystem is used for establishing a construction risk factor index system based on organization management risk source data and calculating the weight of each organization management risk factor based on an analytic hierarchy process; analyzing the causal relationship among the organization management risk factors and establishing a causal relationship graph; determining a flow position flow rate and a variable set based on the evaluation result, the calculation result, the organization management risk source data and the weight thereof; drawing a system flow diagram based on the causal relationship diagram, the flow position flow rate and the variable set to form a system dynamic model matched with a construction project; and determining the change relation of the risk level of the construction project along with time based on a system dynamic model matched with the construction project.
8. The construction risk evolution system construction method according to claim 7,
the acquiring of the risk source data of the construction comprises the following steps:
acquiring construction accident sample data;
and acquiring risk source data of construction based on the construction accident sample data.
9. A construction risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring initial risk source data of construction number to be evaluated;
inputting the initial risk source data into the construction risk evolution system of any one of claims 1-6;
and acquiring the change relation of the construction item risk level output by the construction risk evolution system along with time.
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