CN112257233A - Elastic power grid resilience evaluation method and device, computer equipment and medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application relates to an elastic power grid resilience evaluation method, an elastic power grid resilience evaluation device, computer equipment and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating a disturbance index of the position of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information; calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line; calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line; and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold. The elastic power grid resilience evaluation method can quantify resilience indexes of the elastic power grid, and is beneficial to improving the accuracy of resilience evaluation of the elastic power grid.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of elastic power grids, in particular to an elastic power grid resilience evaluation method, an elastic power grid resilience evaluation device, computer equipment and a medium.
Background
In recent years, a plurality of accidents occurring in the world highlight the shortage of preparation of an electric power system for extreme disasters which are difficult to predict, such as the occurrence of extreme incidents like tsunami and tsunami in fukushima, and ice disaster in southern china in 2008, serious damage is brought to the electric power system, the development of social economy is severely restricted, and the daily life of people is influenced. Under the background, the elastic power grid with the recovery capability after being subjected to external disturbance becomes a popular direction for the global smart power grid research.
However, the conventional elastic power grid resilience evaluation method evaluates the risk level of the elastic power grid resilience according to the risk value and the probability value of each influencing factor, and cannot accurately predict the resilience of the elastic power grid in the extreme environment.
Therefore, the traditional elastic power grid resilience evaluation method has the problem that the evaluation result is inaccurate.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, it is necessary to provide an elastic power grid resilience evaluation method, apparatus, computer device and medium capable of accurately evaluating the resilience of an elastic power grid in view of the above technical problems.
In a first aspect of the present application, a method for evaluating resilience of an elastic power grid is provided, where the method includes:
acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating a disturbance index of the position of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information;
calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold.
In one embodiment, the weather forecast information includes typhoon forecast information, the disturbance index includes a wind speed value, the weather forecast information is acquired, and the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the forecast information, including:
acquiring typhoon forecast information, and establishing a typhoon wind field model based on the forecast information;
and calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
In one embodiment, calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line comprises:
determining a life probability function of the unit line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the service life probability function of the unit line.
In one embodiment, the calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scenario according to the time-varying fault rate of the line includes:
and analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
In one embodiment, calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the time-varying fault rate of the line, and a preset load loss threshold, includes:
analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid;
determining the fault duration of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss and a preset load loss threshold;
and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss amount and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
In one embodiment, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the load loss amount and the fault duration of the elastic power grid, the formula for calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid is as follows:
wherein Z is the resilience index of the elastic power grid, Em(t) load loss, f (i) probability of occurrence of a fault scenario; and delta t is the fault recovery time of the elastic power grid.
In one embodiment, after calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the time-varying fault rate of the line, and the preset load loss amount threshold, the method further includes:
and obtaining and outputting the resilience evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the resilience index of the elastic power grid.
In a second aspect, an elastic power grid resilience evaluation device is provided, which includes:
the disturbance index calculation module is used for acquiring weather forecast information and calculating a disturbance index of the position of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information;
the time-varying fault rate calculation module is used for calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
the fault scene analysis module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
and the restoring force index calculation module is used for calculating the restoring force index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value.
In a third aspect, a computer device is provided, comprising a memory storing a computer program and a processor implementing the steps of the above method when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned method.
According to the elastic power grid resilience evaluation method, the weather forecast information is obtained, and the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the weather forecast information, so that the influenced condition of the position of the unit line can be quantified; then, according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line, the time-varying fault rate of the line formed by the unit line can be calculated, and the occurrence probability of the most possible fault scene of the elastic power grid under the influence of weather is further calculated; finally, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the disturbance resistance capability of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, and according to the time-varying fault rate of the line and the preset load loss threshold, the performance loss condition and the recovery speed of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, so that the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be accurately calculated, and the accuracy of resilience evaluation of the elastic power grid is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating resilience of an elastic power grid in an embodiment;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating an embodiment of obtaining weather forecast information and calculating a disturbance index of a location of a unit line in an elastic grid based on the weather forecast information;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a typhoon disturbance process of an IEEE30 node elastic grid in one embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process of calculating a time-varying fault rate of a line according to a disturbance index of a location of a unit line in one embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a graph illustrating a line outage rate versus time for typhoon weather in one embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram illustrating a relationship between a line failure rate and time in typhoon weather in one embodiment;
fig. 7 is a schematic flowchart illustrating a process of calculating a resilience index of the elastic power grid according to an occurrence probability of a fault scene, a time-varying fault rate of a line, and a preset load loss amount threshold in one embodiment;
FIG. 8 is a schematic flow chart of a resilience evaluation method for an elastic power grid in another embodiment;
FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between a recalculated elastic grid load and time after an elastic grid resilience boosting measure is taken in one embodiment;
FIG. 10 is a block diagram illustrating an exemplary embodiment of an elastic grid resilience evaluation device;
FIG. 11 is a block diagram of an elastic power grid resilience evaluation device according to another embodiment;
FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating an internal structure of a computer device according to an embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.
The elastic power grid resilience evaluation method can be applied to evaluation of the resilience of the elastic power grid under the condition of external disturbance, wherein the external disturbance comprises extreme weather. Referring to fig. 1, a method for evaluating resilience of an elastic power grid is provided, the method including:
step S100: and acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating a disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information.
The weather forecast information can be obtained through a television weather forecast or a weather website, and the method for obtaining the weather forecast information is not limited in the application. The weather forecast information includes main weather parameters, such as wind direction, wind speed, air pressure and other information in case of windy weather, and information such as moving path of snowfall zone, air temperature and change of snowfall amount in case of snowy weather. The unit line refers to the minimum unit formed by one line. In the process of external disturbance, the length of the unit line is far smaller than the influence range of the external disturbance, so that the position of the unit line can be approximately considered to be a point, that is, the disturbance index of the position of the unit line at a certain moment is determined. The disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid corresponds to a specific weather type, for example, the disturbance index corresponding to windy weather is wind speed, and the disturbance index corresponding to snowy weather is ice coating amount.
Specifically, according to the forecast information of the weather, parameters related to the external disturbance caused by the weather can be acquired. According to the parameters, the disturbance process of the weather can be simulated, and the corresponding disturbance index can be determined. And calculating the disturbance index of the position of the unit line according to the disturbance process of the weather and the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid.
Step S200: and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line.
The time-varying fault rate refers to the fault rate of a line varying with time. Specifically, according to the weather forecast information, the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid can be calculated, and then according to the design value of the disturbance index corresponding to the unit line in the elastic power grid, the time-varying fault rate of the unit line can be calculated. As mentioned above, the lines in the flexible power grid are formed by unit lines. In the weather disturbance process, because the positions are different, the affected degrees of the unit lines are different, and then, the probability of the line composed of different unit lines having faults is also different. Only when all unit lines in one line operate normally, the line can operate normally. Then, based on the time-varying fault rate of the affected unit lines in the line, the time-varying fault rate of the line can be calculated.
Step S300: and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line.
According to the time-varying fault rate of the line, the fault line composition of the elastic power grid at different moments in the external disturbance process can be determined. The fault scene refers to the set of lines with faults in the external disturbance process. As during a disturbance in the weather the affected lines are different. According to the time-varying fault rates of all the affected lines, the fault line and the fault time in the elastic power grid are determined, the most possible fault scene of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, and the occurrence probability of the fault scene is calculated.
Step S400: and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold.
The load loss amount refers to a defective power supply amount in a specific fault scenario. The load loss amount in a specific fault scene can be calculated according to the time-varying fault rate of a fault line. Due to the self-recovery capability of the elastic power grid, the load value of the elastic power grid can be recovered to a certain degree after the external disturbance is finished. Based on the above, a load loss threshold may be set, and when the load loss of the elastic power grid is less than or equal to the load loss threshold, it is determined that the elastic power grid returns to normal operation. Specifically, the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be obtained according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene and the calculation and analysis of the load loss amount in the power grid fault process.
According to the elastic power grid resilience evaluation method, the weather forecast information is obtained, and the disturbance index of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the weather forecast information, so that the influenced condition of the position of the unit line can be quantified; then, according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line, the time-varying fault rate of the line formed by the unit line can be calculated, and the occurrence probability of the most possible fault scene of the elastic power grid under the influence of weather is further calculated; finally, according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the disturbance resistance capability of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, and according to the time-varying fault rate of the line and the preset load loss threshold, the performance loss condition and the recovery speed of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be determined, so that the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be accurately calculated, and the accuracy of resilience evaluation of the elastic power grid is improved.
In one embodiment, the weather forecast information includes typhoon forecast information, and the disturbance index includes a wind speed value, please refer to fig. 2, and step S100 includes step S120 and step S140.
Step S120: typhoon forecast information is obtained, and a typhoon field model is established based on the forecast information.
The model of the influence of weather is a mathematical model for representing external disturbance due to weather changes. The typhoon wind field model is a mathematical model which is used for simulating the basic characteristics of typhoon and is based on fluid dynamics and thermodynamics. The basic characteristics of typhoons include typhoon wind speed and evolution process. Common typhoon wind field models include the Batts, Shapiro and CE wind field models.
The specific process of establishing the typhoon wind field model is described below by taking a Batts wind field model as an example.
The Batts wind field model is to superpose the gradient wind speed and the moving wind speed in the cyclone, and determine the wind speed value of the point through the center of the typhoon and the position of the research point. Specifically, considering the intensity attenuation in the typhoon moving process, the calculation formula of the peripheral air pressure and central air pressure difference Δ p (t) in the typhoon moving process is as follows:
Δp(t)＝Δp0-0.675(1+sinθ)t (1)
wherein, Δ p0The air pressure difference when typhoon landing is obtained; theta is an included angle between the typhoon moving direction and the landing coastline.
According to the difference delta p (t) between the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure, the maximum wind speed radius R of the typhoon is calculatedmax(t) is:
according to the difference between the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure and the maximum wind speed radius, the maximum gradient wind speed v of the typhoon can be calculatedgx(t) is:
wherein K is a constant and is determined empirically; f. ofwIs the coefficient of coriolis force of earth rotation.
Then, according to the maximum gradient wind speed and the moving speed of the typhoon, the average wind speed v at the maximum wind speed radius can be calculatedrmax(t) is:
vrmax(t)＝0.865vgx(t)+0.5vT (4)
wherein v isTThe moving speed of the typhoon can be obtained from the forecast information of the typhoon.
Finally, according to the distance between the unit line and the center of the typhoon at a certain moment, the wind speed value v of the position of the unit line at the moment can be determinedr：
In the formula, r is the distance between the position of the unit line and the center of the typhoon at a certain moment; v. ofrmaxThe average wind speed at the maximum wind speed radius of the typhoon at the moment; rmaxThe maximum wind speed radius of the typhoon at this time.
Thus, the establishment of the Batts wind field model is completed.
Step S140: and calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
Substituting the obtained typhoon forecast information into the typhoon wind field model established in step S120, the wind speed value of the position of the unit line considering the typhoon time-space characteristics can be obtained. Specifically, the included angle between the typhoon moving direction and the landing coastline can be determined according to the landing place and the moving path of the typhoon in the typhoon forecast information. According to the moving path and moving speed v of typhoonTThe time t for the typhoon to reach the unit line can be determined. Substituting the time t, the air pressure difference when the typhoon logs in the typhoon forecast information and the included angle between the typhoon motion direction and the landing coastline into the formula (1), and calculating to obtain the peripheral air pressure difference delta p (t) and the central air pressure difference delta p (t) in the typhoon moving process. Then the difference delta p (t) between the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure is substituted into the formula (2), and the maximum wind speed radius R of the typhoon can be calculatedmax(t) of (d). The difference between the peripheral air pressure and the central air pressure delta p (t) and the maximum wind speed radius Rmax(t) substitution of formula (3), the maximum gradient wind speed v of typhoon can be calculatedgx(t) of (d). Then moving the typhoon with the speed vTAnd maximum gradient wind velocity vgx(t) substitution of formula (4), the average wind speed v at the maximum wind speed radius can be calculatedrmax(t) of (d). According to the position of the unit line and the position of the typhoon center at the moment, the distance r between the position of the unit line and the typhoon center at the moment can be calculated. Finally according to R and Rmax(t) the magnitude relation is substituted into the corresponding formula of the formula (5), and the wind speed value v of the unit line position at the moment can be calculatedr。
For the convenience of understanding, taking IEEE30 node flexible grid as an example, the process of creating typhoon disturbance is shown in fig. 3, where the outlet end of node 26 is used as the origin to create a coordinate system, the coordinates of the landing position of typhoon are (-25km ), the landing angle is 15 °, and the initial air pressure difference between the periphery and the center of typhoon is 30 hpa. And substituting the parameters into a Batts wind field model to obtain the wind speed change condition of the position of each unit line in the typhoon influence range. As can be seen from fig. 3, the typhoon moves along the preset path shown by the arrow in the figure, and during the movement of the typhoon, the maximum wind speed of the typhoon continuously decreases, and the radius of the maximum wind speed, that is, the radius of the circle in fig. 3 continuously increases.
In the embodiment, the typhoon wind field model is established based on the typhoon forecast information, so that the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid can be accurately estimated, the accuracy of the line working state analysis in the typhoon disturbance process is favorably improved, and the fault scene occurrence probability and the accuracy of the elastic power grid resilience index estimation are further improved.
In one embodiment, referring to fig. 4, step S200 includes steps S220 to S240.
Step S220: and determining the life probability function of the unit line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line.
Specifically, the lifetime probability function of the component and the transition probability of the component from the operating state to the failure state are essentially the same. Meanwhile, the lifetime probability function of the component is numerically identical to the outage rate of the component. Taking typhoon weather as an example, the outage rate lambda of a unit line0(t) probability function of life of unit line and unit lineThe relationship model between the wind speeds of (1) is:
where v (t) is the wind speed per line; v. ofdThe design wind speed for a unit line; a. b is an element model parameter which can be obtained by analyzing and counting historical outage data of a line; lambda [ alpha ]0The unit of (t) is (50km x 1h)-1. Wherein the analytical statistical method for the historical outage data comprises regression fitting.
Step S240: and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the service life probability function of the unit line.
According to the service life probability function of the unit line, the outage rate of the line with the length L is obtained as follows:
λp(t)＝λ0(t)L
wherein the outage rate lambda of the linep(t) represents the number of line outages within 1 h.
If the line cannot be automatically reclosed in the external disturbance process, the line can be repaired only when the external disturbance is transferred out of the elastic power grid region. Given the lifetime probability function of the non-repairable element, the following expression p (t) for describing the failure probability distribution of the line over a period of time using a markov process can be established:
taking typhoon weather as an example, as shown in fig. 5, the outage rate of the line is related to the time in typhoon weather, and as shown in fig. 6, the failure rate of the line is related to the time in typhoon weather, wherein the lines 25-26 and 27-28 correspond to the lines 25-26 and 27-28 in fig. 3. With reference to fig. 3 and 5, it can be seen that, in the typhoon moving process, the relative distance between the position of the line and the central point of the typhoon is constantly changed, and the closer the line is to the maximum wind speed radius of the typhoon, the greater the outage rate is, so that the relationship curve between the outage rate and the time has two peaks, and the outage rate at other times is very small and close to 0. Since the typhoon intensity is attenuated, the peak at the latter time is lower than that at the former time. According to the line fault rate expression, the fault rate of the line is increased continuously along with the time, and the increasing speed of the line fault rate is accelerated at the moment that the outage rate is high, namely the slope of the fault curve is increased. As shown in fig. 6, the slope of the failure rate increase curve increases for two times in fig. 5 when the outage rate is high.
In the embodiment, the service life probability function of the unit line is calculated according to the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid, and the time-varying fault rate of the line is calculated according to the service life probability function of the unit line, so that the accuracy of analyzing the working state of the line in the typhoon disturbance process is improved, and the occurrence probability of a fault scene and the accuracy of evaluating the resilience index of the elastic power grid are further improved.
In one embodiment, step S300 includes step S320.
Step S320: and analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
The elastic power grid state space can be divided into a normal operation state set and a load loss state set, and the influence on the line is mainly considered in the external disturbance process. The elastic power grid is provided with n lines which are sequentially numbered as n1,n2,…nnUsing a two-state model, niIndicating that the line is in a normal operating condition,
indicating that the line is in a fault condition. The elastic power grid system generates a k-order fault state set SkCan be expressed as follows:
in the formula, j-i is k, k lines in the set are in a fault state at the same time, and other n-k lines are in a fault state at the same timeAnd in a normal operation state, thereby forming w system fault states. Probability of occurrence P (S)k) Can be expressed as:
wherein p isiFor the probability of failure of line i, when line i is in a failed state, n i0; when in the operating state, ni＝1。
The fault scene refers to a scene that more than two lines have faults and the elastic power grid has faults. The external disturbance greatly increases the fault rate of the elastic power grid line, and the occurrence probability of a fault scene is increased. And analyzing a most likely fault scene caused by the external disturbance by combining the predicted path of the external disturbance, and carrying out elastic power grid resilience evaluation calculation on the fault scene. After the fault line is determined, accumulating the occurrence probability P (S) of different fault states at different timesk) The occurrence probability f (i), namely f (i) ═ P (S), of the most likely fault scene caused by the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be obtainedk)。
In the embodiment, according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, the fault scene is obtained by analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid, and the occurrence probability of the fault scene is calculated. Therefore, the fault scene of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be accurately described, the accuracy of the fault analysis process of the elastic power grid is improved, and the accuracy of the resilience index evaluation of the elastic power grid is improved.
In one embodiment, referring to fig. 7, step S400 includes steps S420 to S460.
Step S420: and analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid.
The load loss of the elastic power grid refers to the load loss of the elastic power grid in the fault time. Specifically, each node state quantity of the elastic power grid recovered after the disaster needs to satisfy a certain constraint condition, where the constraint condition includes:
in the formula, PGK、QGKThe active output and the reactive output of the generator k in the fault state of the elastic power grid are obtained; delta PijThe current-carrying capacity of the line ij; pLnThe load quantity of the load node n; pij,maxIs the maximum ampacity of line ij; delta PLnReducing the load of the load node n; pLn,maxThe load is the upper limit of the load quantity of the load node n; pGK,min、PGK,maxRespectively is the lower limit and the upper limit of active power output of the generator k; qGK,max、QGK,maxRespectively is the lower limit and the upper limit of the reactive power output of the generator k; u shapeiIs the voltage at node i.
According to the determined fault scene, the load loss E of the elastic power grid in the fault time can be obtainedm(t) the expression is:
in the formula, Pe(t) represents a target load amount when the elastic power grid is in fault-free operation; pf(t) represents the amount of supply load when a fault occurs.
Step S440: and determining the fault duration of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss and a preset load loss threshold.
Specifically, a threshold of the load loss amount may be preset, and when the load loss amount is higher than the preset threshold, it is determined that the elastic grid fails. Correspondingly, the fault duration refers to the duration that the elastic grid load loss is higher than the preset threshold.
Step S460: and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss amount and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
Specifically, the resilience index of the elastic power grid should analyze the influence of various disturbances on the resilience from multiple angles. The load loss of the elastic power grid and the recovery time of the elastic power grid under the fault can be respectively quantized. The occurrence probability of different fault scenes is also an index for measuring the resilience of the elastic power grid, and the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be improved by reducing the occurrence probability of the disturbance which can cause the reduction of the transport capacity of the elastic power grid. Therefore, the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be calculated by considering three aspects of the load loss amount of the elastic power grid, the recovery time and the occurrence probability of a fault scene.
In one embodiment, the resilience indicator of the elastic electrical network is calculated by the formula:
in the formula, Z is a resilience index of the elastic power grid; em(t) is the load loss of the elastic power grid in the fault time; f (i) probability of occurrence for a particular fault scenario; and delta t is the fault recovery time of the elastic power grid.
In the embodiment, the resilience index of the elastic power grid is obtained by considering the three aspects of the load loss amount, the recovery time and the occurrence probability of the fault scene of the elastic power grid, and is used for resilience evaluation, so that the defect power supply amount of the elastic power grid in the external disturbance process can be reflected, the recovery speed of the elastic power grid under the fault can be reflected, the disturbance resistance of the elastic power grid can be reflected, and the accuracy of resilience evaluation of the elastic power grid can be improved.
Further, in an embodiment, referring to fig. 8, after the step S400, a step S500 is further included.
Step S500: and obtaining and outputting the resilience evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the resilience index of the elastic power grid.
Specifically, a reference value of the elastic grid resilience index may be set, and the reference value may be one or more. When the calculated resilience index of the elastic power grid is greater than or equal to the reference value, obtaining a good resilience result of the elastic power grid and outputting the good resilience result; otherwise, obtaining and outputting the result of poor recovery of the elastic power grid. When the reference values are multiple, the multiple reference values can be combined pairwise to form multiple reference intervals, and different levels are used for representing the resilience evaluation results of the elastic power grid in the multiple reference intervals. For example, good, and poor evaluation results can be represented by S, A and B, respectively. The calculation result of the resilience index of the elastic power grid and the reference value can be output together, or the evaluation result of the resilience of the elastic power grid can be directly output.
And outputting the restoring force evaluation result of the elastic power grid, wherein the restoring force evaluation result can be directly output to a terminal for displaying, or can be uploaded to a server, and the restoring force evaluation result is obtained after the restoring force evaluation result is downloaded by the terminal. In short, the present embodiment does not limit the output mode and the output target of the evaluation result of the restoring force of the elastic power grid.
Furthermore, according to the resilience evaluation result of the elastic power grid, the worker can select measures for improving the resilience of the elastic power grid, calculate the resilience index of the elastic power grid after the measures are taken, and evaluate the effectiveness of the measures.
Specifically, according to the resilience index of the elastic power grid, the resilience of the elastic power grid is improved by the following three ways: the occurrence rate of faults of the elastic power grid is reduced, the load loss of the elastic power grid is reduced, and the recovery time of the elastic power grid is shortened. If the element fails, the element cannot be repaired immediately, and only after the external disturbance is finished, the element is repaired manually, namely the problem of recovery time of the elastic power grid cannot be improved well. Then, the resilience of the elastic power grid can be improved through the former two ways, the feeder line is added before a disaster, the overhead line is cabled, and the distributed power supply is introduced after the disaster to improve the resilience index of the elastic power grid. In addition, the overhead line is reinforced, the fault occurrence rate is favorably reduced, and the resilience index of the elastic power grid can be improved.
Taking typhoon weather as an example, as shown in fig. 3, it is determined that the fault scene in the typhoon weather is a quadruple fault fieldAnd under the fault scene, the lines 25-26, the lines 27-28, the lines 6-28 and the lines 6-8 respectively have faults after typhoon landing, and the load loss amount, the recovery time and the occurrence probability of the fault scene of the elastic power grid in the fault time are calculated. Combined with elastic electric network load loss Em(t), time delta t for recovery and failure scene occurrence probability f (i) calculating a resilience evaluation index as follows:
according to the obtained quantized index of the resilience of the elastic power grid, the resilience of the elastic power grid can be improved in the following three ways: a feeder line and an overhead line are added before a disaster, and a distributed power supply is introduced after the disaster. After the above measures are taken, the load curve of the elastic power grid is recalculated, as shown in fig. 9, it can be seen that after the relevant measures are taken, the load loss of the elastic power grid after being disturbed by the outside is obviously reduced, that is, the restoring force of the elastic power grid is obviously improved, which indicates that the taken measures are effective.
Furthermore, a restoring force increasing threshold value can be set, and after measures are taken, the restoring force index of the elastic power grid is increased to exceed a preset threshold value, and then the measures are judged to be effective measures.
Furthermore, in one embodiment, after step S400, the method may further include: and generating measures for improving the restoring force of the elastic power grid according to the restoring force index of the elastic power grid.
Specifically, a relationship between relevant parameters such as load loss and fault probability in the elastic power grid and measures for improving resilience of the elastic power grid can be established according to historical data. Measures for improving the resilience of the elastic power grid include feeder line increase before a disaster, overhead line cabling, overhead line reinforcement, introduction of a distributed power supply after the disaster, and the like. After the resilience index of the elastic power grid is obtained through calculation, measures for improving the resilience of the elastic power grid can be generated according to the actual situation of the elastic power grid.
In the above embodiment, the restoring force index of the elastic power grid is calculated through a formula, and the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation result is obtained and output according to the preset restoring force index standard value, so that a basis can be provided for further research and improvement of the restoring force of the elastic power grid, the construction of the elastic power grid is guided, and a virtuous circle is formed.
It should be understood that although the various steps in the flowcharts of fig. 1-2, 4 and 7-8 are shown in order as indicated by the arrows, the steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not performed in the exact order shown and described, and may be performed in other orders, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Moreover, at least some of the steps in fig. 1-2, 4, and 7-8 may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages that are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, and the order of performance of the sub-steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but may be performed alternately or alternatingly with other steps or at least some of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.
In an embodiment, please refer to fig. 10, which provides an elastic power grid resilience evaluation apparatus, including a disturbance index calculation module 100, a time-varying fault rate calculation module 200, a fault scenario analysis module 300, and a resilience index calculation module 400. The disturbance index calculation module 100 is configured to obtain weather forecast information, and calculate a disturbance index of a location of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the weather forecast information; the time-varying fault rate calculation module 200 is configured to calculate a time-varying fault rate of a line according to a disturbance index of a position where a unit line is located; the fault scene analysis module 300 is configured to calculate an occurrence probability of a fault scene according to a time-varying fault rate of a line; and a restoring force index calculation module 400, configured to calculate a restoring force index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the time-varying fault rate of the line, and a preset load loss threshold.
In one embodiment, the weather forecast information includes typhoon forecast information, the disturbance index includes a wind speed value, and the disturbance index calculation module 100 includes a wind field model building unit and a wind speed value calculation unit. The wind field model establishing unit is used for acquiring typhoon forecast information and establishing a typhoon wind field model based on the forecast information; the wind speed value calculating unit is used for calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
In one embodiment, the time-varying failure rate calculation module 200 is specifically configured to: determining a life probability function of the unit line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line; and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the service life probability function of the unit line.
In one embodiment, the failure scenario analysis module 300 is specifically configured to: and analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
In one embodiment, the restoring force index calculation module 400 is specifically configured to: analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid; determining the fault duration of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss and a preset load loss threshold; and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss amount and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
In an embodiment, please refer to fig. 11, another elastic power grid resilience evaluation apparatus is provided, which further includes a resilience evaluation result output module 500, configured to: and obtaining and outputting the resilience evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the resilience index of the elastic power grid.
For specific limitations of the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation device, reference may be made to the above limitations of the elastic power grid restoring force evaluation method, which are not described herein again. The modules in the elastic power grid resilience evaluation device can be wholly or partially realized by software, hardware and a combination thereof. The modules can be embedded in a hardware form or independent from a processor in the computer device, and can also be stored in a memory in the computer device in a software form, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the modules.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a terminal, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in fig. 12. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, a display screen, and an input device connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device comprises a nonvolatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the computer device is used for communicating with an external terminal through a network connection. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement an elastic grid resilience evaluation method. The display screen of the computer equipment can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer equipment can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, a key, a track ball or a touch pad arranged on the shell of the computer equipment, an external keyboard, a touch pad or a mouse and the like.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the architecture shown in fig. 12 is merely a block diagram of some of the structures associated with the disclosed aspects and is not intended to limit the computing devices to which the disclosed aspects apply, as particular computing devices may include more or less components than those shown, or may combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, storage, database, or other medium used in the embodiments provided herein may include non-volatile and/or volatile memory, among others. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), Programmable ROM (PROM), Electrically Programmable ROM (EPROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in a variety of forms such as Static RAM (SRAM), Dynamic RAM (DRAM), Synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), Double Data Rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), Enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), Synchronous Link DRAM (SLDRAM), Rambus Direct RAM (RDRAM), direct bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above examples only express several embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, which falls within the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. An elastic grid resilience assessment method, the method comprising:
acquiring weather forecast information, and calculating a disturbance index of the position of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the forecast information;
calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
calculating the occurrence probability of a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the weather forecast information comprises typhoon forecast information, the disturbance indicator comprises a wind speed value, the weather forecast information is obtained, and the disturbance indicator of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid is calculated based on the forecast information, and the method comprises the following steps:
acquiring typhoon forecast information, and establishing a typhoon wind field model based on the forecast information;
and calculating the wind speed value of the position of the unit line in the elastic power grid according to the typhoon forecast information and the typhoon wind field model.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the location of the unit line comprises:
determining a life probability function of the unit line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
and calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the service life probability function of the unit line.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein calculating the probability of occurrence of a fault scenario based on the time-varying fault rate of the line comprises:
and analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid to obtain a fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculating of the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss amount threshold includes:
analyzing the fault line composition at different moments in the elastic power grid according to the time-varying fault rate of the line, and calculating the load loss of the elastic power grid;
determining the fault duration of the elastic power grid according to the relation between the load loss and a preset load loss threshold;
and calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the load loss and the fault duration of the elastic power grid.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the formula for calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the load loss amount and the fault duration of the elastic power grid is as follows:
wherein Z is the resilience index of the elastic power grid, Em(t) load loss, f (i) probability of occurrence of a fault scenario; and delta t is the fault recovery time of the elastic power grid.
7. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein after calculating the resilience index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scenario, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss amount threshold, the method further comprises:
and obtaining and outputting the resilience evaluation result of the elastic power grid according to the resilience index of the elastic power grid.
8. An elastic grid resilience evaluation device, comprising:
the disturbance index calculation module is used for acquiring weather forecast information and calculating a disturbance index of the position of a unit line in the elastic power grid based on the weather forecast information;
the time-varying fault rate calculation module is used for calculating the time-varying fault rate of the line according to the disturbance index of the position of the unit line;
the fault scene analysis module is used for calculating the occurrence probability of the fault scene according to the time-varying fault rate of the line;
and the restoring force index calculation module is used for calculating the restoring force index of the elastic power grid according to the occurrence probability of the fault scene, the time-varying fault rate of the line and a preset load loss threshold value.
9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, wherein the processor implements the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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