CN111736179B - Navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment system and method based on weighted probability - Google Patents

Navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment system and method based on weighted probability Download PDF

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CN111736179B
CN111736179B CN202010406326.XA CN202010406326A CN111736179B CN 111736179 B CN111736179 B CN 111736179B CN 202010406326 A CN202010406326 A CN 202010406326A CN 111736179 B CN111736179 B CN 111736179B
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马利
袁莉芳
张旭
白东炜
冯文靖
张孝功
曹锦�
田华东
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Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering
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Abstract

The invention provides a navigation constellation on-orbit operation risk assessment system and method based on weighted probability, which belong to the technical field of navigation constellation assessment, wherein the system comprises a risk element identification module, a satellite configuration analysis module, a satellite health state analysis module, a satellite on-orbit use analysis module and a networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module; the risk element identification module is used for identifying risk elements of the satellite in an in-orbit running state, and comprises constellation configuration risk elements, networking star in-orbit health state risk elements and in-orbit use conditions; the system comprises a satellite configuration analysis module, a satellite health state analysis module and a satellite in-orbit use analysis module, wherein the risk comprehensive weighting probability under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable is calculated according to the identified risks, and the weighting probability of the health state of each orbit satellite and the weighting probability of each orbit satellite in-orbit use are calculated; and the networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module assesses the comprehensive risk of each orbit satellite according to each weighted probability.

Description

Navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment system and method based on weighted probability
Technical Field
The invention relates to a navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment system and method based on weighted probability, and belongs to the technical field of navigation constellation assessment.
Background
The Beidou navigation system provides all-weather and all-day positioning, navigation and time service services for the whole world, and is currently in an initial stage of on-orbit operation. The Beidou navigation system is directly oriented to army and global users, the on-orbit service life is as long as 10-12 years, and the index requirements of the accuracy, the integrity, the continuity and the availability of the satellite navigation service provide more stringent requirements for the on-orbit service performance of the Beidou constellation system. The Beidou navigation system is a large-scale mixed navigation constellation system, and consists of a plurality of navigation satellites, and covers three orbits (GEO, IGSO, MEO), and can provide continuous, stable and high-precision navigation service for global users under the condition that all the navigation satellites providing service on orbit work normally, and the constellation service performance meets the requirements.
However, due to insufficient design of the anti-space environment, over design life of the satellite in orbit running time, etc., the service performance of the navigation satellite may be reduced or even completely unavailable, which directly affects the use of the user. Common measures for avoiding the overall performance degradation of the constellation caused by satellite in-orbit abnormality and the like are as follows: on-orbit configuration reconstruction, transmitting backup star plans, etc. However, the different types and different orbits of satellites have great differences in the influence of abnormality degree on constellation service performance; meanwhile, there are great differences in the types of services provided by satellites, the amount of users, the degree of user dependence, and the like. If the comprehensive influence of these factors and their differences on the performance of the constellation service is ignored, or only the simple superposition analysis and judgment are performed on each influence factor, the rationality and comprehensiveness of the constellation management measures may be affected, even the time for the constellation service to be unavailable becomes long, and the user experience satisfaction is reduced. Therefore, for the navigation satellite, on-orbit management and risk assessment of the constellation cannot be avoided, the risk and the influence weight thereof existing in the constellation are comprehensively weighed, the risk grades are ordered, a scientific constellation management strategy is formulated, and the task interruption time caused by the reduction of the service performance or the unavailability of the system is reduced as much as possible.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical solution of the invention is as follows: the system and the method are used for evaluating risk satellites which possibly influence long-term stable service of the navigation constellation during long-term running management of the navigation constellation in orbit and serve as key bases for important decisions such as constellation in-orbit configuration reconstruction, backup star emission opportunity selection and the like.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
the navigation constellation on-orbit operation risk assessment system based on the weighted probability comprises a risk element identification module, a satellite configuration analysis module, a satellite health state analysis module, a satellite on-orbit use analysis module and a networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module:
the risk element identification module is used for identifying risk elements of the satellite in an in-orbit running state, and comprises constellation configuration risk elements, networking star in-orbit health state risk elements and in-orbit use conditions;
the satellite configuration analysis module calculates risk comprehensive weighted probability G under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable according to the constellation configuration risk elements identified by the risk element identification module i ；
The satellite health state analysis module is used for analyzing the weighted probability J of the health state of each orbital satellite according to the on-orbit health state risk factors of the networking satellites identified by the risk factor identification module i ；
The satellite in-orbit use analysis module calculates the weighted probability U of each in-orbit satellite in-orbit use according to the in-orbit use identified by the risk factor identification module i ；
The networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module is used for comprehensively weighting the probability G according to risks under the condition that all orbit satellites are unavailable i Weighted probabilities J of health of respective orbital satellites i Weighted probability U of each orbital satellite in orbit i And (5) evaluating the comprehensive risk of each orbit satellite.
Further, the invention calculates the risk comprehensive weighted probability G under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable i The method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002491448590000031
a i ＝1-0.01*(p i -1)-0.01*(q i -1)
wherein m is the number of satellites constituting a constellation, T x G is the weight factor of the star orbit type i For correction factors, if there is a backup track g i =1, otherwise g i ＝0.6，，p i For designing the sequence number, q of the satellite numbered i in the sequence from short to long i For transmitting the sequence number of satellite numbered i in the time sequence from the early to the late, D i % is the percentage of constellation degradation performance where satellite number i is unavailable.
Further, the invention calculates the weighted probability J of the health status of each orbital satellite i The method comprises the following steps:
J i ＝0.4*M i +0.2*F i +0.4*H i
wherein F is i To be resident fault influencing factor, H i To recover abnormal influence factors, M i Is an influencing factor of on-orbit actual life prediction.
Further, the invention relates to the weighted probability U of each orbit satellite in orbit i ＝1-0.1*Q i ，Q i Sequence numbers ordered by the number of users for constellation satellites.
Further, the networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module provided by the invention evaluates the comprehensive risk of each orbit satellite as follows:
Z i ＝S j *J i +G i *S g +U i *S s
wherein S is j To set the weighted probability of satellite health status, S g Weighting probabilities for constellation configurations, S s Weighted probabilities are used for on-track.
Further, the invention sets the weighted probability S of satellite health status j =0.5, constellation configuration weighted probability S g =0.3, using weighted probability S on orbit s ＝0.2。
A navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment method based on weighted probability specifically comprises the following steps of
Risk element identification of navigation constellation in on-orbit running state: the dimension influencing the constellation service performance is identified, and the dimension mainly comprises constellation configuration, on-orbit health state of networking satellites and on-orbit use;
from the constellation configuration point of view, calculating the risk G in the case that each orbital satellite is not available i ：
Firstly, calculating the percentage D of the reduction of the constellation service performance under the condition that none of certain kinds of constellations are available x The weighted probability of each star is:
Figure BDA0002491448590000041
wherein n is the number of satellite types constituting the constellation;
secondly, calculating a weighted probability correction value of each orbit satellite according to the service life and the transmitting time sequence of the orbit satellites:
a i ＝1-0.01*(p i -1)-0.01*(q i -1)
wherein p is i For designing the sequence number, q of the satellite numbered i in the sequence from short to long i A sequence number for satellite numbered i in the time sequence from the morning to the evening for transmission;
again, calculating the percentage D of the constellation degradation performance in the event that an orbital satellite is unavailable i ％；
Finally, calculating risk comprehensive weighted probability under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002491448590000042
wherein m is the number of satellites constituting a constellation, T x A weight factor for the star track type; g i If there is no backup track position, g is as correction factor i =1, otherwise g i ＝0.6；
From the perspective of the on-orbit health state of the networking satellites, calculating the health state J of each orbital satellite i ：
First, obtain the satellite resident fault influencing factor F i ；
Second, a recoverable anomaly impact factor H is obtained i ；
Again, the influence factor M of the on-orbit actual life prediction is obtained i ；
Finally, calculating the weighted probability value method of the health state of each orbital satellite from the satellite health state angle, wherein the weighted probability value method is J i ＝0.4*M i +0.2*F i +0.4*H i 。
From the satellite use angle, calculating the weighted probability U of each orbit satellite in orbit use i ＝1-0.1*Q i ，Q i Sequence numbers for constellation satellites ordered from more to less according to user quantity;
networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment:
first, calculate the comprehensive risk Z of each orbital satellite i ＝S j *J i +G i *S g +U i *S s ，S j 、S g S and S s Is a set weighting factor;
secondly, the comprehensive risk of all networking satellites of constellation networking is according to Z i The higher the rank order, the higher the risk of the networking star with the higher rank order on the constellation stable service, which is the risk of the constellation running on orbit.
The beneficial effects are that:
the method is mainly used for evaluating the risk satellite which possibly influences the constellation long-term stable service during the navigation constellation long-term running management period, and is used as a key basis for important decisions such as constellation in-orbit configuration reconstruction, backup star transmitting time selection and the like.
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Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a risk element identification and assessment method suitable for use in an on-orbit state of a navigation constellation.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention.
The navigation constellation requires continuous 24 hours to provide continuous, stable, reliable service without interruption. The constellation consists of a plurality of networking satellites, the constellation configuration, the health state of each orbital networking satellite and other factors directly influence the service performance of the constellation, but the influence degree is different. If a critical orbit satellite fails, the satellite performance will be much more affected than a non-critical orbit satellite, so that the key is needed to ensure that the critical orbit satellite is well-conditioned. The factors influencing the health state of the satellite are also many, such as that a certain star frequently influences the slight abnormality of the service, but no single point fault exists, no safety risk exists, and a certain star has the single point fault risk influencing the safety, but the slight abnormality influencing the service is less, the service performance index is changed, how to scientifically evaluate the risk severity of each networking satellite of the constellation, determine the risk of the constellation, and directly relate to the rationality of important on-orbit maintenance strategies such as constellation configuration reconstruction, selection of backup star emission time and the like, thereby guaranteeing the long-term stable service of the constellation.
The invention discloses a navigation constellation on-orbit operation risk assessment system based on weighted probability, which comprises a risk element identification module, a satellite configuration analysis module, a satellite health state analysis module, a satellite on-orbit use analysis module and a networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module:
the risk element identification module is used for identifying risk elements of the satellite in an in-orbit running state, and comprises constellation configuration risk elements, networking star in-orbit health state risk elements and in-orbit use conditions;
the satellite configuration analysis module calculates risk comprehensive weighted probability G under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable according to the constellation configuration risk elements identified by the risk element identification module i ；
The satellite health state analysis module is used for analyzing the weighted probability J of the health state of each orbital satellite according to the on-orbit health state risk factors of the networking satellites identified by the risk factor identification module i ；
The satellite in-orbit use analysis module calculates the in-orbit of each in-orbit satellite according to the in-orbit use identified by the risk factor identification moduleUsing weighted probabilities U i ；
The networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module is used for comprehensively weighting the probability G according to risks under the condition that all orbit satellites are unavailable i Weighted probabilities J of health of respective orbital satellites i Weighted probability U of each orbital satellite in orbit i And (5) evaluating the comprehensive risk of each orbit satellite.
The comprehensive risk assessment method for the networking satellites is provided by comprehensively identifying risk factors influencing the navigation constellation service performance and aiming at each factor influencing the constellation service performance, and the priority and time of managing the constellation risk are solved by sequencing the risk factors of each networking satellite of the constellation.
The invention provides a risk analysis method suitable for a navigation constellation in an on-orbit running state, which comprises the following specific steps as shown in fig. 1:
1. risk element identification of navigation constellation in on-orbit running state
(1) And determining the dimension influencing the constellation service performance from the navigation constellation on-orbit service performance level analysis, wherein the dimension mainly comprises constellation configuration, networking star on-orbit health state and on-orbit use.
(2) From a constellation configuration perspective, the types of satellite orbits that make up the navigation constellation, typically including MEO, GEO, and IGSO satellites, are first identified. And secondly, analyzing the influence condition of the satellite orbit position condition and the satellite failure of a certain orbit position on the constellation service performance. The design life of the on-orbit satellite is analyzed again, and the design life is ranked from short to long. The satellite transmission times were again analyzed and ranked from early to late.
(3) From the perspective of networking satellite health status analysis, first the existing resident fault conditions, and the severity level of each resident fault, whether to form a single point, and the degree of impact on satellite security and service are analyzed. And secondly, analyzing the types of recoverable anomalies after the constellation provides the service, and the severity level, the occurrence frequency and the influence degree on satellite safety and service of various recoverable anomalies. The actual life of the satellite is predicted again and compared with the design life.
(4) From the perspective of in-orbit usage, the types of services provided by satellites are analyzed first, and generally include radio navigation services (RNSS), radio measurement services (RDSS), space-based augmentation services (SBAS), inter-station time synchronization and communication services, precision positioning services, and the like, which are required to be provided by a navigation constellation system.
2. Expert knowledge-based networking satellite risk factor weighted probability determination method
(1) From the navigation constellation on-orbit service performance level analysis, satellite health status weighted probability S is based on expert knowledge j =0.5, constellation configuration weighted probability S g =0.3, using weighted probability S on orbit s ＝0.2。
(2) From the constellation configuration angle analysis, firstly, calculating the percentage D of the reduction of the constellation service performance under the condition that certain kinds of constellations are unavailable x Percent of the total weight of the composition. The weighted probability value method of various stars is as follows
Figure BDA0002491448590000081
For the number of satellite types constituting the constellation (e.g. beidou navigation satellite type n=3), x=1, 2 … n;
secondly, calculating a weighted probability correction value a of each orbit satellite according to the service life and the transmitting time sequence of the orbit satellites i ＝1-0.01*(p i -1)-0.01*(q i -1), wherein p i For designing the sequence number, q of the satellite numbered i in the sequence from short to long i For transmitting a sequence number of the satellite numbered i in the time sequence from the morning to the evening, i represents the number of the satellite;
again, calculating the percentage D of the constellation degradation performance in the event that an orbital satellite is unavailable i ％。
According to the satellite orbit position backup condition, taking a correction factor g i The value method comprises the following steps: if there is no backup track, g i =1, otherwise g i =0.6. And calculating risk comprehensive weighted probability under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002491448590000082
wherein m is the number of satellites constituting a constellation, T x As a weight factor for the satellite orbit type, when the satellite with the number j belongs to the 1 st orbit type, T x ＝T 1 。
(3) From the satellite health state perspective, first, the satellite resident fault influencing factor F is analyzed i The severity of the resident fault is divided into a catastrophic problem, an important problem and a general problem, and the weight correction factor f y 1,0.3,0.1 are taken respectively; if the resident fault is a single point, the weight correction factor f d Taking 1, otherwise taking 0.2, and correcting the influence of resident faults on satellite safety by a factor f a Taking the number from 0.1 to 1 from light to heavy according to the influence degree on satellite safety; influence correction factor f of resident fault on satellite service w Then the number in 0.1 to 1 is fetched from light to heavy according to the influence degree on satellite service, and then the fault influence factor is resident
Figure BDA0002491448590000091
Wherein n is the number of resident faults present; second, analysis of recoverable anomaly impact factor H i Dividing various recoverable anomalies into catastrophic problems, important problems and general problems, and correcting the weight by a factor h y 1,0.2,0.01 are taken respectively; according to the occurrence frequency of recoverable anomalies from small to large, a weight correction factor h d Taking the number from 0.1 to 1; correcting the factor h according to the influence degree of recoverable anomalies on satellite safety from light to heavy a Taking the number from 0.1 to 1; correcting the factor h according to the influence degree of recoverable anomalies on satellite services from light to heavy w Taking the number from 0.1 to 1; then the abnormality influencing factor +.>
Figure BDA0002491448590000092
Where n is the type of possible recovery anomalies that exist. Again, the impact factor M of the on-orbit real life prediction is analyzed i . If the actual life is greater than or equal to the design life, M i ＝1-0.1*ΔT i (ΔT i The difference between the actual life of the satellite and the design life of the satellite is numbered i); otherwise, M i ＝1+0.1*ΔT i (ΔT i The difference between the actual life of satellite and the design life is numbered i. Thirdly, calculating the weighted probability value method of the health state of each orbital satellite from the perspective of the health state of the satellite, wherein the weighted probability value method is J i ＝0.4*M i +0.2*F i +0.4*H i 。
(4) From the satellite use perspective, the service types provided by each orbital satellite are analyzed first, and the user quantity of each service type is counted. For simplicity, the number of users of the service with the largest number of users is taken as the number of users of the satellite, and the constellation satellites are ordered from more to less according to the number of users. Weighted probability U for each orbital satellite in orbit i ＝1-0.1*Q i (Q i The value of (1) is equal to the ranking, e.g., 1 st takes 1).
3. Comprehensive risk assessment method for networking satellite
The navigation constellation on-orbit risk synthesis is carried out by firstly calculating the comprehensive risk probability Z of each orbit satellite according to expert knowledge i The method is Z i ＝S j *J i +G i *S g +U i *S s . Secondly, the comprehensive risk of all networking satellites of constellation networking is according to Z i And sorting the sizes. The networking satellites with the earlier arrangement have greater risks for constellation service stability, and are risk satellites for constellation in-orbit operation.
The invention is characterized in that the factors influencing the constellation performance are identified in a layered manner from the three dimensions of constellation configuration, satellite health state and in-orbit use around the constellation service performance, and a weight determining method of each influencing factor and a constellation comprehensive risk assessment calculating method are provided. The Beidou No. two regional satellite navigation system utilizes the method to perform constellation risk assessment, and makes strategies such as on-orbit satellite orbit adjustment, backup satellite emission plan and the like according to analysis conclusion, so that the Beidou No. two navigation constellation is ensured to provide service from 2012 so far, and the service performance of the constellation in the last 7 years meets the requirements.
In summary, the above embodiments are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. The navigation constellation on-orbit operation risk assessment system based on the weighted probability is characterized by comprising a risk element identification module, a satellite configuration analysis module, a satellite health state analysis module, a satellite on-orbit use analysis module and a networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module:
the risk element identification module is used for identifying risk elements of the satellite in an in-orbit running state, and comprises constellation configuration risk elements, networking star in-orbit health state risk elements and in-orbit use conditions;
the satellite configuration analysis module calculates risk comprehensive weighted probability G under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable according to the constellation configuration risk elements identified by the risk element identification module i ；
The satellite health state analysis module calculates weighted probability J of each orbital satellite health state according to the networking satellite on-orbit health state risk elements identified by the risk element identification module i ；
The satellite in-orbit use analysis module calculates the weighted probability U of each in-orbit satellite in-orbit use according to the in-orbit use condition identified by the risk factor identification module i ；
The networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module is used for comprehensively weighting the probability G according to risks under the condition that all orbit satellites are unavailable i Weighted probabilities J of health of respective orbital satellites i Weighted probability U of each orbital satellite in orbit i Evaluating the comprehensive risk of each orbit satellite;
the risk comprehensive weighted probability G under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable is calculated i The method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003988959440000011
a i ＝1-0.01*(p i -1)-0.01*(q i -1)
wherein m is the number of satellites constituting a constellation, T x G is the weight factor of the star orbit type i For correction factors, if there is a backup track g i =1, otherwise g i ＝0.6，p i For designing the sequence number, q of the satellite numbered i in the sequence from short to long i For transmitting the sequence number of satellite numbered i in the time sequence from the early to the late, D i % is the percentage of constellation degradation performance where satellite number i is unavailable.
2. The weighted probability-based navigation constellation in orbit risk assessment system according to claim 1, wherein said weighted probability J for each orbital satellite health status is calculated i The method comprises the following steps:
J i ＝0.4*M i +0.2*F i +0.4*H i
wherein F is i To be resident fault influencing factor, H i To recover abnormal influence factors, M i Is an influencing factor of on-orbit actual life prediction.
3. The weighted probability-based navigation constellation in-orbit risk assessment system as recited in claim 1, wherein each of said orbiting satellites is in-orbit using a weighted probability U i ＝1-0.1*Q i ，Q i Sequence numbers ordered by the number of users for constellation satellites.
4. The navigation constellation on-orbit risk assessment system based on weighted probability according to claim 1, wherein the networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module assesses the comprehensive risk of each orbital satellite as:
Z i ＝S j *J i +G i* S g+ U i *S s
wherein S is j To set the weighted probability of satellite health status, S g Weighting probabilities for constellation configurations, S s Weighted probabilities are used for on-track.
5. The weighted probability-based system of claim 4Navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment system, characterized in that the satellite health state weighted probability S is set j =0.5, constellation configuration weighted probability S g =0.3, using weighted probability S on orbit s ＝0.2。
6. The navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment method based on the weighted probability is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
risk element identification of navigation constellation in on-orbit running state: the dimension influencing the constellation service performance is identified, and the dimension mainly comprises constellation configuration, on-orbit health state of networking satellites and on-orbit use;
from the constellation configuration point of view, calculating the risk G in the case that each orbital satellite is not available i ：
Firstly, calculating the percentage D of the reduction of the constellation service performance under the condition that none of certain kinds of constellations are available x The weighted probability of each star is:
Figure FDA0003988959440000031
wherein n is the number of satellite types constituting the constellation;
secondly, calculating a weighted probability correction value of each orbit satellite according to the service life and the transmitting time sequence of the orbit satellites:
a i ＝1-0.01*(p i -1)-0.01*(q i -1)
wherein p is i For designing the sequence number, q of the satellite numbered i in the sequence from short to long i A sequence number for satellite numbered i in the time sequence from the morning to the evening for transmission;
again, calculating the percentage D of the constellation degradation performance in the event that an orbital satellite is unavailable i ％；
Finally, calculating risk comprehensive weighted probability under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003988959440000032
wherein m is the number of satellites constituting a constellation, T x A weight factor for the star track type; g i If there is no backup track position, g is as correction factor i =1, otherwise g i ＝0.6；
From the perspective of the on-orbit health state of the networking satellites, calculating the health state J of each orbital satellite i ：
First, obtain the satellite resident fault influencing factor F i ；
Second, a recoverable anomaly impact factor H is obtained i ；
Again, the influence factor M of the on-orbit actual life prediction is obtained i ；
Finally, calculating the weighted probability value method of the health state of each orbital satellite from the satellite health state angle, wherein the weighted probability value method is J i ＝0.4*M i +0.2*F i +0.4*H i ；
From the satellite use angle, calculating the weighted probability U of each orbit satellite in orbit use i ＝1-0.1*Q i ，Q i Sequence numbers for constellation satellites ordered from more to less according to user quantity;
networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment:
first, calculate the comprehensive risk Z of each orbital satellite i ＝S j *J i +G i *S g+ U i* S s ，S j 、S g S and S s Is a set weighting factor;
secondly, the comprehensive risk of all networking satellites of constellation networking is according to Z i The higher the rank order, the higher the risk of the networking star with the higher rank order on the constellation stable service, which is the risk of the constellation running on orbit.
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