CN110031872A - A kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation - Google Patents

A kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation Download PDF

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Publication number
CN110031872A
CN110031872A CN201910251692.XA CN201910251692A CN110031872A CN 110031872 A CN110031872 A CN 110031872A CN 201910251692 A CN201910251692 A CN 201910251692A CN 110031872 A CN110031872 A CN 110031872A
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satellite
constellation
navigation
stu2
follows
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王家胜
杨卓鹏
蒲洪波
赵滟
张灏龙
徐熙阳
杨超
周少鹏
宋功媛
李静
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China Academy Of Aerospace Systems Science And Engineering
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China Academy Of Aerospace Systems Science And Engineering
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01SRADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES
    • G01S19/00Satellite radio beacon positioning systems; Determining position, velocity or attitude using signals transmitted by such systems
    • G01S19/01Satellite radio beacon positioning systems transmitting time-stamped messages, e.g. GPS [Global Positioning System], GLONASS [Global Orbiting Navigation Satellite System] or GALILEO
    • G01S19/13Receivers
    • G01S19/23Testing, monitoring, correcting or calibrating of receiver elements

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  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Radar, Positioning & Navigation (AREA)
  • Remote Sensing (AREA)
  • Computer Networks & Wireless Communication (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Position Fixing By Use Of Radio Waves (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation methods of navigation constellation, comprehensively consider short-term plan interruption, short-term unplanned interruption, the difference interrupt type such as prolonged stoppage, and satellite mean time between interruptions, the satellite development time, carrier rocket reliability, logical relation between star, the many factors such as spacing wave precision, single track position availability model is constructed using Stochastic Petri Nets, single star multi-parameter reliability model is constructed using random fault and wear-out fault, single star capability model is constructed using the Evaluation formula based on game theory, single star system effectiveness models are constructed using weighting area method, comprehensively consider logical relation between single star system efficiency and star, carry out navigation constellation system effectiveness using Bayesian network to model, the system effectiveness comprehensive assessment of navigation constellation can be achieved;Appraisal procedure of the present invention can provide quantitative basis for satellite navigation system Top-layer Design Method, operating status assessment, and can expand and be applied to the serial constellation such as communication, remote sensing.

Description

A kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation
Technical field
The invention belongs to satellite navigation system efficiency technical fields, and in particular to a kind of system effectiveness of navigation constellation is comprehensive Appraisal procedure.
Background technique
The system effectiveness of navigation constellation refers to navigation constellation under the defined conditions and in the defined time, meets one group of spy Determine the degree of mission requirements.Above-mentioned " particular task " include: Precise Orbit it is determining with time synchronization, the injection of navigation information uplink, Navigation information downlink is broadcast, system health monitors etc..System effectiveness correlative factor with navigation constellation includes: that single track position is available Property, logical relation etc. between single star reliability, single star ability, star.
Coordinated operation, availability, reliability, performance requirement are high with having the characteristics that star for navigation constellation.In actual motion mistake Cheng Zhong, satellite, carrier rocket, control section coordinated operation, Performance And Reliability maintainability protection index coupling, to navigation Constellation systems measures of effectiveness brings larger challenge.In addition, traditional Effectiveness Evaluation is studied mainly for single satellite performance Carry out Modeling Research, the less correlation for considering satellite performance and reliability maintainability protection, less consideration constellation level System effectiveness Modeling Research.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, can be to defend the object of the present invention is to provide a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation Star navigation system Top-layer Design Method, operating status assessment provide quantitative basis.
A kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation, comprises the following steps that
Step 1, the single track position availability for determining satellite, single star reliability RNAV(t), single star ability CNAV(t), single star is calculated System effectiveness ES(t): ES(t)=ASLOT(t)·RNAV(t)·CNAV(t);
Step 2 carries out single star interrupt analysis, study respectively single satellite in navigation constellation interrupt one by one, any two defend Star combination simultaneously interrupt, it is any three until all combinations of satellites at the same interruption in the case of constellation value;
Step 3 determines constellation systems efficiency Ec(t):
In formula:
N is navigation constellation Satellite sum;
M is fault satellites number in constellation, m=1,2 ..., n;
For all number of combinations of m satellite failure in n satellite;
Pm,k(t) when being m satellite failure, all single star system efficiency values for not interrupting satellite multiply under the combination of kth kind Product;K is that satellite failure combines serial number, and value is
αm,kConstellation value when for m satellite failure, under the combination of kth kind.
Preferably, determining single track position availability ASLOT(t) method are as follows:
S11, according to navigation satellite interrupt-feature and interruption source, by navigation satellite interruption be divided into short-term plan interrupt, it is short Phase unplanned interruption, prolonged stoppage determine all kinds of interruption correlated condition parameters;
S12, the single track position availability mould based on Stochastic Petri Nets is constructed according to all kinds of interruption correlated condition parameters Type determines stable state and state transformational relation in model;
S13, according to Stochastic Petri Nets isomorphism Markov Chain, determine the differential equation of single track position availability model, And then determine single track position availability ASLOT(t)。
Preferably, the single track position availability ASLOT(t) the differential equation are as follows:
In formula:
λSTS1For average short-term plan outage rate;
λSTS2Repair rate is interrupted for average short-term plan;
λSTU1For averagely short-term unplanned outage rate;
λSTU2For averagely short-term unplanned outage diagnosis;
λSTU3For the averagely quick recovery rate of short-term unplanned interruption operating condition;
λSTU4For averagely short-term unplanned interruption operating condition constant speed recovery rate;
λSTU5For the averagely short-term unplanned quick recovery rate of interrupting service;
λSTU6For averagely short-term unplanned interrupting service constant speed recovery rate;
λLT1For average task water holdup;
λLT2For average ground power of the test;
λLT3For average satellite development rate;
λLT4It transports for average satellite to launching site rate;
λLT5Averagely to penetrate preceding filling rate;
λLT6For average Orbital detection rate;
fSTU1For sufficient probability of putting on record;
fSTU2Probability is short of to put on record;
fLT1For satellite ground backup probability;
fLT2For the non-backup probability of satellite ground;
fLT3To defend carrier rocket reliability;
fLT4To defend booster failure probability;
And fSTU1+fSTU2=1, fLT1+fLT2=1, fLT3+fLT4=1;
PSTS1It (t) is short-term plan interrupt status;
PSTU1It (t) is short-term unplanned interrupt status;
PSTU3It (t) is backup scenario abundance state
PSTU5(t) restore state for the operating condition in backup scenario abundance situation;
PSTU6(t) restore state for the operating condition in the case of backup scenario shortcoming;
PLT2It (t) is Sputnik program ground test state;
PLT4It (t) is Sputnik program travel position;
PLT5(t) state is filled for Sputnik program;
PLT6It (t) is Sputnik program emission state;
It is solved using runge kutta method;Single track position availability transient silution is ASLOT(t);Wherein, single as time t → ∞ It is A that rail position availability transient silution, which becomes single track position availability steady state solution,SLOT(∞), is obtained by Markov Chain:
ASLOT(∞)=A/ (A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J+K+L)
In formula:
A=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
B=λSTS1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
C=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
D=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU1· fLT3
E=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU2· fLT3
F=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU1· fLT3
G=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU2· fLT3
H=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT1
I=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT2
J=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT5·λLT6
K=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT6
L=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·fLT3
Preferably, the markovian principle of isomorphism is as follows:
S41, all kinds of interruption correlated conditions in single track position based on Stochastic Petri Nets are divided into stable state and unstable State, stable state refer to that state output directed arc is directed toward timed transition, and unstable state refers to that state output directed arc is directed toward Immediate transition;
S42, Markov state will be set to set by all stable state libraries, each stable state library between state conversion For Markov switching, associated transitions value is known as transition probability;
The determination process of transition probability are as follows: if a) only existing timed transition between stable state, transition probability is the time Transition are reciprocal;If transition probability is timed transition inverse and wink b) there are timed transition and immediate transition between stable state The product of Shi Bianqian respective value.
Preferably, the list star reliability determines that method is as follows:
Firstly, navigation satellite failure is divided into stochastic pattern failure and consume type failure, really according to navigation satellite fault characteristic Determine stochastic pattern failure and consume type failure dependent failure parameter;
Then, it is Weibull distribution by stochastic pattern failure-description, is normal distribution by consume type failure-description, by stochastic pattern Fault model is multiplied with consume type fault model, obtains single star reliability model, and then determines single star reliability RNAV(t)。
Preferably, the list star ability equation is as follows:
In formula:
CNAV(t)iIndicate single star ability under i-th group of test;
n*Indicate the quantity of data target;
ωjFor the weighted value of jth item data index;
x′ijFor the nondimensionalization processing costs of the jth item index value under i-th group of test;
The corresponding single star ability of one group of type testing is selected, as final single star ability.
Preferably, weighted value ωjDetermine method are as follows: subjective weight is determined according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP), is determined according to Information Entropy Objective weight finally determines each parameter combination weights omega of spacing wave precision according to game theory methodj
Preferably, the determination method of the subjectivity weight are as follows:
Each index belonging to single star ability is compared two-by-two, defines index xiWith index xjThe scale compared, then constructs Judgment matrix:
A={ aij}n×n
In formula:
aijFor index xiWith index xjThe scale compared;
Weight ρ of each index relative to single star ability is calculated by solving following equation:
A ρ=λmax·ρ
In formula:
λmaxFor the maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix A;
ρ=[ρ12,...,ρn] it is λmaxCorresponding feature vector, as subjective weight vectors.
Preferably, the objective weight is determined using Information Entropy, specifically:
If Satellite Experiment data target collectionWherein m**Indicate test number (TN), n**Indicate evaluation index Number;Determine each index normalized value are as follows:
Further determine that each indication information entropy are as follows:
In formula:
K=1/lnm**
Each index objective weight vector are as follows:
Preferably, the method that the game theory determines indicator combination weight are as follows:
Construct indicator combination weight model are as follows:
ω=θ1ρ+θ2η
Optimize θ1、θ2So that the deviation minimization of ω and ρ, η, establish optimization method are as follows:
Determine normalization index are as follows:
Combining weights vector is expressed as:
ω=θ1′ρ+θ2′η。
Preferably, the constellation value are as follows:
In formula:
t0For initial time;
T is the constellation cycle of operation;
PDOPt,i,jFor Dilution of Precision's PDOP value of grid points (i, j) in t moment the urban satellite navigation service region;
PDOPreqFor defined PDOP required value;
areai,jFor the area of grid points (i, j);
Area is the urban satellite navigation service region gross area;
L is simulating area sum;
Bool (x) is Boolean function, when x is true, bool (x)=1, and otherwise bool (x)=0.
Preferably, characterizing the navigation constellation system effectiveness using Bayesian network, i.e., are as follows:
In formula, EcFor navigation constellation system effectiveness;P(Esi), i=1,2 ..., n is single star system efficiency.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
The system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation of the invention comprehensively considers short-term plan interruption, short-term non-meter Draw the different interrupt types such as interruption, prolonged stoppage and satellite mean time between interruptions, satellite development time, carrier rocket The many factors such as logical relation, spacing wave precision between reliability, star, it is available using Stochastic Petri Nets building single track position Property model, construct single star multi-parameter reliability model using random fault and wear-out fault, the combination based on game theory utilized to assign Power method constructs single star capability model, constructs single star system effectiveness models using weighting area method, comprehensively consider single star system efficiency and Logical relation between star carries out the modeling of navigation constellation system effectiveness, it can be achieved that the system effectiveness of navigation constellation is comprehensive using Bayesian network Close assessment;
By nautical star configuration, satellite time between interruptions, satellite development time, satellite Orbital detection time, carrier rocket Reliability, spacing wave range error, spacing wave ranging change rate error, spacing wave ranging second order change rate error, association Multiple reliability and maintanability, r&m protection indexs such as universal time offset error and performance indicator are adjusted to be integrated in a unified system effect In energy frame, reliability and maintanability, r&m protection index, the reciprocation of performance indicator and system effectiveness index are realized;
Appraisal procedure of the present invention can provide quantitative basis for satellite navigation system Top-layer Design Method, operating status assessment, and can It expands and is applied to the serial constellation such as communication, remote sensing.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the system effectiveness index system schematic diagram of navigation constellation;
Single track position availability model schematic diagram of the Fig. 2 based on Stochastic Petri Nets;
Fig. 3 is all kinds of effective status transition diagrams of single track position availability;
Fig. 4 is GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite single track position availability schematic diagram;
Fig. 5 is GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite list star reliability schematic diagram;
Fig. 6 is GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite list star system efficiency schematic diagram;
Fig. 7 is that constellation value schematic diagram is interrupted in navigation constellation difference rail position;
Fig. 8 is the navigation constellation system effectiveness model schematic based on Bayesian network;
Fig. 9 is navigation constellation system effectiveness schematic diagram;
Figure 10 is the method for the present invention implementation process schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
A kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation of the invention, steps are as follows:
(1) according to navigation constellation operation characteristic, navigation constellation system effectiveness is divided into logic between single star system efficiency and star Relationship, navigation constellation system effectiveness are the comprehensive functions of logical relation between single star system efficiency and star;
(2) single track position availability A is determined according to navigation satellite interrupt status and state parameterSLOT(t), according to single star failure Type and fault parameter determine single star reliability RNAV(t), single star ability C is determined according to single star key performance and performance parameterNAV (t), single track position availability, single star reliability, single star ability are merged, determines list star system efficiency ES(t);
(2.1) further, the single track position availability determination method are as follows:
(2.1.1) according to navigation satellite interrupt-feature and interruption source, by navigation satellite interruption be divided into short-term plan interrupt, Short-term unplanned interruption, prolonged stoppage, determine all kinds of interruption correlated condition parameters;Wherein:
It includes: short-term plan interrupt status P that short-term plan, which interrupts correlated condition,STS1(t);
Short-term unplanned interruption correlated condition includes: short-term unplanned interrupt status PSTU1(t), fault diagnosis completion status PSTU2(t), backup scenario abundance state PSTU3(t), backup scenario is short of state PSTU4(t), the work in backup scenario abundance situation Condition restores state PSTU5(t), the operating condition in the case of backup scenario shortcoming restores state PSTU6(t);
Prolonged stoppage correlated condition includes: satellite ground storage selection state PLT1(t), Sputnik program ground test state PLT2(t), Sputnik program develops state PLT3(t), Sputnik program travel position PLT4(t), Sputnik program fills state PLT5(t)、 Sputnik program emission state PLT6(t), Sputnik program Orbital detection state PLT7(t)。
It includes: short-term plan interrupt status P that short-term plan, which interrupts stable state,STS1(t);
Short-term unplanned interruption stable state includes: short-term unplanned interrupt status PSTU1(t), backup scenario abundance state PSTU3(t), backup scenario is short of state PSTU4(t), the operating condition in backup scenario abundance situation restores state PSTU5(t), backup side Operating condition in the case of case shortcoming restores state PSTU6(t);
Prolonged stoppage stable state includes: Sputnik program ground test state PLT2(t), Sputnik program develops state PLT3 (t), Sputnik program travel position PLT4(t), Sputnik program fills state PLT5(t), Sputnik program Orbital detection state PLT7(t)。
(2.1.2) constructs the single track position availability model based on Stochastic Petri Nets according to above-mentioned all kinds of correlated conditions, Determine the stable state and state transformational relation in model;
(2.1.3) determines the differential side of single track position availability model according to Stochastic Petri Nets isomorphism Markov Chain Journey, and then determine single track position availability ASLOT(t);The differential equation are as follows:
In formula:
λSTS1For average short-term plan outage rate (λSTS1=1/TSTS1, TSTS1Indicate average short-term plan interrupt interval Time);
λSTS2Repair rate (λ is interrupted for average short-term planSTS2=1/TSTS2, TSTS2It indicates that average short-term plan is interrupted to restore Time);
λSTU1For averagely short-term unplanned outage rate (λSTU1=1/TSTU1, TSTU1Indicate average short-term unplanned interruption Interval time);
λSTU2For averagely short-term unplanned outage diagnosis (λSTU2=1/TSTU2, TSTU2Indicate average short-term unplanned Outage Diagnostic Time);
λSTU3For the averagely short-term unplanned quick recovery rate (λ of interruption operating conditionSTU3=1/TSTU3, TSTU3Indicate average short-term non- Operating condition instantaneous recovery time is interrupted in plan);
λSTU4For averagely short-term unplanned interruption operating condition constant speed recovery rate (λSTU4=1/TSTU4, TSTU4Indicate average short-term non- Operating condition constant speed recovery time is interrupted in plan);
λSTU5For the averagely short-term unplanned quick recovery rate (λ of interrupting serviceSTU5=1/TSTU5, TSTU5Indicate average short-term non- Plan interrupting service instantaneous recovery time);
λSTU6For averagely short-term unplanned interrupting service constant speed recovery rate (λSTU6=1/TSTU6, TSTU6Indicate average short-term non- Plan interrupting service constant speed recovery time);
λLT1For average task water holdup (λLT1=1/TLT1, TLT1Indicate mean mission duration time, MMDT);
λLT2For average ground power of the test (λLT2=1/TLT2, TLT2Indicate the average ground testing time);
λLT3For average satellite development rate (λLT3=1/TLT3, TLT3Indicate the average satellite development time);
λLT4It transports for average satellite to launching site rate (λLT4=1/TLT4, TLT4When indicating that average satellite is transported to launching site Between);
λLT5Averagely to penetrate preceding filling rate (λLT5=1/TLT5, TLT5Expression fills the time before averagely penetrating);
λLT6For average Orbital detection rate (λLT6=1/TLT6, TLT6Indicate the average Orbital detection time);
fSTU1For sufficient probability of putting on record;
fSTU2Probability is short of to put on record;
fLT1For satellite ground backup probability;
fLT2For the non-backup probability of satellite ground;
fLT3To defend carrier rocket reliability;
fLT4To defend booster failure probability.
Further, fSTU1+fSTU2=1, fLT1+fLT2=1, fLT3+fLT4=1.
Single track position availability transient silution is ASLOT(t), it can be solved by runge kutta method;
As time t → ∞, it is A that single track position availability transient silution, which becomes single track position availability steady state solution,SLOT(∞), by horse Er Kefu chain obtains:
ASLOT(∞)=A/ (A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J+K+L)
In formula:
A=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
B=λSTS1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
C=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
D=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU1· fLT3
E=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU2· fLT3
F=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU1· fLT3
G=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU2· fLT3
H=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT1
I=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT2
J=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT5·λLT6
K=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT6
L=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·fLT3
(2.2) single star reliability determines method are as follows:
According to navigation satellite fault characteristic, navigation satellite failure is divided into stochastic pattern failure, consume type failure, is determined random Type failure, consume type failure dependent failure parameter;It is Weibull distribution by stochastic pattern failure-description, is by consume type failure-description Weibull distribution model and normal distribution model are merged in normal distribution, construct single star reliability model, and then determine that single star is reliable Property RNAV(t)。
Single star Reliability Equation are as follows:
In formula:
For the corresponding reliability of random failure unit;
For the corresponding reliability of wearout failure unit;
α is scale parameter;
β is form parameter;
μ is desired value;
σ is standard deviation.
(2.3) further, single star ability is assessed.Since single star capability evaluation is expertise and objective test The synthesis result of data, therefore expertise is combined to determine index subjectivity weight using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), it is used in conjunction with test data Information Entropy determines index objective weight.Meanwhile to avoid expert's wish preference and the different adverse effect of numerical difference, using game theory Method carries out subjective and objective weight synthesis, determines indicator combination weight.
(a) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines index subjectivity weight
Each index belonging to single star ability is compared two-by-two, defines index xiWith index xjDifferent degree grade and meaning Are as follows:
1 evaluation index relative importance relationship of table
Scale Meaning
1 Indicate two indices xiAnd xjIt compares, there is property of equal importance
3 Indicate two indices xiAnd xjIt compares, xiCompare xjIt is slightly important
5 Indicate two indices xiAnd xjIt compares, xiCompare xjIt is obvious important
7 Indicate two indices xiAnd xjIt compares, xiCompare xjIt is strong important
9 Indicate two indices xiAnd xjIt compares, xiCompare xjIt is extremely important
2,4,6,8 Between the scale value of above two adjacent situations
It is reciprocal Index xiAnd xjCompared to aij, then xjAnd xiCompared to 1/aij
Judgement Matricies are as follows:
A={ aij}n×n
In formula:
aijFor index xiWith index xjThe scale compared.
Calculate weight of each index relative to single star ability are as follows:
A ρ=λmax·ρ
In formula:
λmaxFor the maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix A;
ρ=[ρ12,...,ρn] it is λmaxCorresponding feature vector, as subjective weight vectors.
Consistency check can also be carried out to judgment matrix A, it is ensured that its is with uniformity, otherwise needs to be modified matrix Processing.
(b) Information Entropy determines index objective weight
If Satellite Experiment data target collection X=[xij]m×n, wherein m indicates that test number (TN), n indicate evaluation index number.Really Fixed each index normalized value are as follows:
Further determine that each indication information entropy are as follows:
In formula:
K=1/lnm.
Each index objective weight vector are as follows:
(c) game theory determines indicator combination weight
Construct indicator combination weight model are as follows:
ω=θ1ρ+θ2η
In formula:
ρ is the index subjectivity weight vectors that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines;
η is the index objective weight vector that Information Entropy determines;
ω is combining weights vector.
Optimize θ1、θ2So that the deviation minimization of ω and ρ, η, establish optimization method are as follows:
Determine normalization index are as follows:
Combining weights vector is expressed as:
ω=θ1′ρ+θ2′η
(d) single star ability equation
It chooses one group of most preferably test and carries out nondimensionalization processing, data target is divided into profit evaluation model and cost type, corresponding position Reason method is respectively as follows:
In conjunction with nondimensionalization processing result and combining weights vector, time factor is considered, determine list star capability evaluation equation Are as follows:
In formula:
CNAV(t)iIndicate single star ability under i-th group of test;
ωjFor the combined weights weight values of jth item index;
x′ijFor the nondimensionalization processing costs of i-th group of test jth item index value.According to pointer type, which can be effect Beneficial type index or cost type index.
The corresponding single star ability of one group of type testing is selected, as final single star ability CNAV(t)。
(2.4) further, single star system efficiency equation are as follows:
ES(t)=ASLOT(t)·RNAV(t)·CNAV(t)
(3) according to constellation structure parameters and simulation requirements, choice accuracy decay factor (PDOP) is used as constellation structure parameters, Determine constellation value equation are as follows:
In formula:
t0For initial time;
T is the constellation cycle of operation;
PDOPt,i,jFor the PDOP value of grid points (i, j) in t moment the urban satellite navigation service region;
PDOPreqFor defined PDOP required value;
areai,jFor the area of grid points (i, j);
Area is the urban satellite navigation service region gross area;
L is simulating area sum;
Bool (x) is Boolean function, when x is true, bool (x)=1, and otherwise bool (x)=0.
Carry out single star interrupt analysis, research single satellite is interrupted one by one respectively, any two combinations of satellites are interrupted simultaneously, are appointed It three combinations of satellites of anticipating while interrupting, until constellation value in the case of the interruption simultaneously of all satellites, and then is determined as single star system Logical relation between efficiency.In the case where being interrupted due to different combinations of satellites, grid points (i, j) in the urban satellite navigation service region PDOP value can be different, therefore different combinations of satellites interrupt under obtain different constellation values, all constellation values embody list Logical relation between star system efficiency.
(4) Bayesian network is applied, determines navigation constellation system effectiveness are as follows:
In formula:
N is navigation constellation satellite sum;
M is fault satellites number in constellation;
For all number of combinations of m satellite failure in n satellite;
Pm,k(t) when being m satellite failure, the lower constellation state probability of kth kind combination, as in the case where this kind combines not in The product of the system effectiveness value of disconnected satellite;
αm,kConstellation value when for m satellite failure, under the combination of kth kind.
For convenience of calculating, later convenient for doing fault diagnosis, above-mentioned navigation constellation system can be characterized with Bayesian network and imitated Can, i.e., are as follows:
In formula, EcFor navigation constellation system effectiveness;
P(Esi), i=1,2 ..., n is single star system efficiency;
Implement example:
(a) navigation constellation system effectiveness index system is determined.According to navigation constellation operation characteristic, navigation constellation system is imitated Logical relation between single star system efficiency and star can be divided into, single star system efficiency includes single track position availability, single star reliability, Dan Xing Ability, constellation logical relation are characterized with constellation value;As shown in Figure 1.
(b) single star system efficiency is determined.
(b.1) single track position availability is determined.Single track position availability model is constructed according to step (2), as shown in Figure 2;Isomorphism Corresponding Markov Chain state migration procedure, as shown in Figure 3.The single track position availability for arranging GEO satellite is ASLOT_GEO(t)、 The single track position availability of IGSO satellite is ASLOT_IGSO(t), the single track position availability of MEO satellite is ASLOT_MEO(t).Fig. 4 be GEO, The single track position availability of IGSO, MEO three classes satellite, You Tuzhong it is found that GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite single track position availability Decline rapidly in initial 0 year~1 year, then keeps stablizing during the 1st year~10 years, steady-state availability is respectively ASLOT_GEO (∞)=0.9722, ASLOT_IGSO(∞)=0.9689, ASLOT_MEO(∞)=0.9558.
(b.2) single star reliability is determined.Single star reliability is determined according to step (2).Arrange single star reliability of GEO satellite For RNAV_GEO(t), single star reliability of IGSO satellite is RNAV_IGSO(t), single star reliability of MEO satellite is RNAV_MEO(t).Figure 5 show single star reliability of GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite, and You Tuzhong is it is found that GEO satellite and operation in IGSO satellite 10 years Period reliability is substantially suitable, and the downward trend that remains a constant speed, until the 10th year reliability is respectively RNAV_GEO(10a)= 0.7478、RNAV_IGSO(10a)=0.7199.Reliability variation acutely, is protected during the 0th~8 year during operation in MEO satellite 10 years Uniform descent trend is held, since the 8th year, is accumulated since wearout failure acts on, acceleration downward trend is showed, until the 9th year can It is only R by propertyNAV_MEO(9a)=0.6290, reliability is rapidly decreased to R within the 10th yearNAV_MEO(10a)=0.3556.
(b.3) single star ability is determined.Single star ability is determined according to step (2).Table 1 show the master that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines See weight vectors, objective weight vector, the game theory method determined combination weight vectors that Information Entropy determines.Arrange GEO satellite Single star ability is CNAV_GEO(t), single star ability of IGSO satellite is CNAV_IGSO(t), single star ability of MEO satellite is CNAV_MEO (t).Single star ability of GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite is respectively as follows: CNAV_GEO(t)=0.8431, CNAV_IGSO(t)=0.9320, CNAV_MEO(t)=0.9321.
1 GEO of table, IGSO, MEO satellite spacing wave precision distinct methods index weights
(b.4) single star system efficiency is determined.Single star system efficiency is determined according to step (2).Arrange single galaxy of GEO satellite System efficiency is ES_GEO(t), single star system efficiency of IGSO satellite is ES_IGSO(t), single star system efficiency of MEO satellite is ES_MEO (t).Fig. 6 show single star system efficiency of GEO, IGSO, MEO three classes satellite, and You Tuzhong is it is found that three classes satellite system efficiency 10 Downward trend is presented during year operation, wherein GEO satellite and IGSO satellite system efficiency are in uniform descent trend, system effectiveness Value is basic to be kept quite, until being respectively within the 10th year ES_GEO(10a)=0.6129, ES_IGSO(10a)=0.6501.MEO satellite system Efficiency variation is more significant, and remain a constant speed downward trend during the 0th~8 year, since the 8th year, since single star reliability is aobvious Writing reduces, and system effectiveness shows acceleration downward trend, until the 9th year system effectiveness is only ES_MEO(9a)=0.5604, until the 10th Year is rapidly decreased to ES_MEO(10a)=0.3168.
(c) logical relation between star is determined.Logical relation between star is determined according to step (3).Fig. 7 show GEO, IGSO, MEO Three classes satellite rail position is without the constellation value interrupted in the case of interrupting with single rail position.By in figure it is found that only from single track position interrupt angle Examination, GEO1 rail position and GEO5 rail position interrupt and are affected to constellation value.
(d) navigation constellation system effectiveness is determined.The navigation constellation system effectiveness based on Bayesian network is constructed according to step (4) Model, as shown in Figure 8.Fig. 9 show navigation constellation system effectiveness, and You Tuzhong between single star system efficiency and star it is found that due to patrolling The superposition for the relationship of collecting, navigation constellation system effectiveness show the situation different from single star system efficiency.Generally speaking, it navigates Constellation systems efficiency gradually reduces at any time, can be divided into three phases.First stage (the 0th year~the 4th year) system effectiveness is in flat Steady downward trend, system effectiveness is by initial EC(0)=0.9502 it is down to EC(4a)=0.8861;Second stage the (the 4th year~the 8th Year) system effectiveness is in downward trend is accelerated, until being within the 8th year EC(8a)=0.6991;Phase III (the 8th year~the 10th year) system Efficiency is in sharply downward trend, until the 10th year is down to EC(10a)=0.2692.
In conclusion the above is merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, being not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. All within the spirits and principles of the present invention, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on should be included in of the invention Within protection scope.

Claims (12)

1. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation, which is characterized in that comprise the following steps that
Step 1, the single track position availability for determining satellite, single star reliability RNAV(t), single star ability CNAV(t), single star system is calculated Efficiency ES(t): ES(t)=ASLOT(t)·RNAV(t)·CNAV(t);
Step 2 carries out single star interrupt analysis, study respectively single satellite in navigation constellation interrupt one by one, any two satellite groups It is interrupted when contract, any three constellation values in the case of all combinations of satellites are interrupted simultaneously;
Step 3 determines constellation systems efficiency Ec(t):
In formula:
N is navigation constellation Satellite sum;
M is fault satellites number in constellation, m=1,2 ..., n;
For all number of combinations of m satellite failure in n satellite;
Pm,k(t) be m satellite failure when, kth kind combination under all single star system efficiency values for not interrupting satellite product;K is Satellite failure combination serial number, value 1,2 ...,
αm,kConstellation value when for m satellite failure, under the combination of kth kind.
2. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that determine single track Position availability ASLOT(t) method are as follows:
S11, according to navigation satellite interrupt-feature and interruption source, by navigation satellite interruption be divided into short-term plan interrupt, it is short-term non- Plan interruption, prolonged stoppage, determine all kinds of interruption correlated condition parameters;
S12, the single track position availability model based on Stochastic Petri Nets is constructed according to all kinds of interruption correlated condition parameters, really Stable state and state transformational relation in cover half type;
S13, according to Stochastic Petri Nets isomorphism Markov Chain, determine the differential equation of single track position availability model, in turn Determine single track position availability ASLOT(t)。
3. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that the single track Position availability ASLOT(t) the differential equation are as follows:
In formula:
λSTS1For average short-term plan outage rate;
λSTS2Repair rate is interrupted for average short-term plan;
λSTU1For averagely short-term unplanned outage rate;
λSTU2For averagely short-term unplanned outage diagnosis;
λSTU3For the averagely quick recovery rate of short-term unplanned interruption operating condition;
λSTU4For averagely short-term unplanned interruption operating condition constant speed recovery rate;
λSTU5For the averagely short-term unplanned quick recovery rate of interrupting service;
λSTU6For averagely short-term unplanned interrupting service constant speed recovery rate;
λLT1For average task water holdup;
λLT2For average ground power of the test;
λLT3For average satellite development rate;
λLT4It transports for average satellite to launching site rate;
λLT5Averagely to penetrate preceding filling rate;
λLT6For average Orbital detection rate;
fSTU1For sufficient probability of putting on record;
fSTU2Probability is short of to put on record;
fLT1For satellite ground backup probability;
fLT2For the non-backup probability of satellite ground;
fLT3To defend carrier rocket reliability;
fLT4To defend booster failure probability;
And fSTU1+fSTU2=1, fLT1+fLT2=1, fLT3+fLT4=1;
PSTS1It (t) is short-term plan interrupt status;
PSTU1It (t) is short-term unplanned interrupt status;
PSTU3It (t) is backup scenario abundance state
PSTU5(t) restore state for the operating condition in backup scenario abundance situation;
PSTU6(t) restore state for the operating condition in the case of backup scenario shortcoming;
PLT2It (t) is Sputnik program ground test state;
PLT4It (t) is Sputnik program travel position;
PLT5(t) state is filled for Sputnik program;
PLT6It (t) is Sputnik program emission state;
It is solved using runge kutta method;Single track position availability transient silution is ASLOT(t);Wherein, as time t → ∞, single track position can Becoming single track position availability steady state solution with property transient silution is ASLOT(∞), is obtained by Markov Chain:
ASLOT(∞)=A/ (A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J+K+L)
In formula:
A=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
B=λSTS1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
C=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT3
D=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU1·fLT3
E=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU2·fLT3
F=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU6·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU1·fLT3
G=λSTS2·λSTU1·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fSTU2·fLT3
H=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT1
I=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT4·λLT5·λLT6·fLT2
J=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT5·λLT6
K=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT6
L=λSTS2·λSTU2·λSTU3·λSTU4·λSTU5·λSTU6·λLT1·λLT2·λLT3·λLT4·λLT5·fLT3
4. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that the isomorphism Markovian principle is as follows:
S41, all kinds of interruption correlated conditions in single track position based on Stochastic Petri Nets are divided into stable state and unstable shape State, stable state refer to that state output directed arc is directed toward timed transition, and unstable state refers to that state output directed arc is directed toward wink Shi Bianqian;
S42, Markov state will be set to set by all stable state libraries, each stable state library between state be converted to horse Er Kefu transfer, associated transitions value are known as transition probability;
The determination process of transition probability are as follows: if a) only existing timed transition between stable state, transition probability is timed transition It is reciprocal;If transition probability is timed transition inverse and instantaneous change b) there are timed transition and immediate transition between stable state Move the product of respective value.
5. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the list star Reliability determines that method is as follows:
Firstly, according to navigation satellite fault characteristic, navigation satellite failure is divided into stochastic pattern failure and consume type failure, determine with Type failure and consume type failure dependent failure parameter;
Then, it is Weibull distribution by stochastic pattern failure-description, is normal distribution by consume type failure-description, by stochastic pattern failure Model is multiplied with consume type fault model, obtains single star reliability model, and then determines single star reliability RNAV(t)。
6. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the list star Ability equation is as follows:
In formula:
CNAV(t)iIndicate single star ability under i-th group of test;
n*Indicate the quantity of data target;
ωjFor the weighted value of jth item data index;
x′ijFor the nondimensionalization processing costs of the jth item index value under i-th group of test;
The corresponding single star ability of one group of type testing is selected, as final single star ability.
7. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that weighted value ωj Determine method are as follows: subjective weight is determined according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP), objective weight is determined according to Information Entropy, finally according to game theory method Determine each parameter combination weights omega of spacing wave precisionj
8. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that the subjectivity The determination method of weight are as follows:
Each index belonging to single star ability is compared two-by-two, defines index xiWith index xjThe scale compared, then construction judgement Matrix:
A={ aij}n×n
In formula:
aijFor index xiWith index xjThe scale compared;
Weight ρ of each index relative to single star ability is calculated by solving following equation:
A ρ=λmax·ρ
In formula:
λmaxFor the maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix A;
ρ=[ρ12,...,ρn] it is λmaxCorresponding feature vector, as subjective weight vectors.
9. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that use entropy Method determines the objective weight, specifically:
If Satellite Experiment data target collectionWherein m** indicates that test number (TN), n** indicate evaluation index number;Really Fixed each index normalized value are as follows:
Further determine that each indication information entropy are as follows:
In formula:
K=1/lnm**
Each index objective weight vector are as follows:
10. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that described rich It plays chess by the method for determining indicator combination weight are as follows:
Construct indicator combination weight model are as follows:
ω=θ1ρ+θ2η
Optimize θ1、θ2So that the deviation minimization of ω and ρ, η, establish optimization method are as follows:
Determine normalization index are as follows:
Combining weights vector is expressed as:
ω=θ '1ρ+θ′2η。
11. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the star Seat value are as follows:
In formula:
t0For initial time;
T is the constellation cycle of operation;
PDOPt,i,jFor Dilution of Precision's PDOP value of grid points (i, j) in t moment the urban satellite navigation service region;
PDOPreqFor defined PDOP required value;
areai,jFor the area of grid points (i, j);
Area is the urban satellite navigation service region gross area;
L is simulating area sum;
Bool (x) is Boolean function, when x is true, bool (x)=1, and otherwise bool (x)=0.
12. a kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that use shellfish Navigation constellation system effectiveness described in this network characterisation of leaf, i.e., are as follows:
In formula, EcFor navigation constellation system effectiveness;P(Esi), i=1,2 ..., n is single star system efficiency.
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CN113610361A (en) * 2021-07-20 2021-11-05 天津(滨海)人工智能军民融合创新中心 GSO frequency-rail resource efficiency evaluation method based on coordination difficulty
CN113610361B (en) * 2021-07-20 2023-09-15 天津(滨海)人工智能军民融合创新中心 GSO frequency rail resource efficiency evaluation method based on coordination difficulty

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