CN111400856B - Spatial traveling wave tube reliability assessment method based on multi-source data fusion - Google Patents
Spatial traveling wave tube reliability assessment method based on multi-source data fusion Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A space traveling wave tube reliability assessment method based on multi-source data fusion comprises the following steps: s1, processing the collected data and extracting features; s2, calculating the edge probability of the bottom-layer input node of the established Bayesian network model according to the result obtained in the step S1; s3, calculating the edge probability of the input nodes of other layers of the Bayesian network model according to the edge probability of the bottom layer input node obtained in the step S2; and S4, calculating a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube according to the calculation result obtained in the step S3 and the traveling wave tube Bayes network model. The invention can utilize real-time on-orbit telemetering data to realize the running reliability evaluation of the traveling wave tube while carrying out static reliability evaluation on the product, and the result can be used as the important basis of the working state of a key single machine of the satellite and on-orbit health management.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of evaluating reliability of spacecraft single-machine products by utilizing multi-source data, in particular to a method for evaluating reliability of a space traveling wave tube based on multi-source data fusion.
Background
The space traveling wave tube is a key component of a satellite-borne transponder and a satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar transmitter, mainly plays a role in realizing the amplification of microwave power, and is very important to the stable operation of an integral satellite system in terms of reliability. The traveling wave tube has a complex structure, many related processes and parts and high price, and belongs to a small sample product.
The reliability evaluation result obtained by the traditional statistical method mostly takes failure time as a statistical object, a large number of life tests or accelerated life tests are used for obtaining failure data of a product, then the reliability of the product at the end of the service life is evaluated by assuming that the life distribution obeys exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, and the evaluation result is conservative due to the short test time and the limited failure number. The traveling wave tube accumulates a great amount of data and quality problems in development, ground tests and in-orbit flight stages, and in order to fully utilize the data to obtain a more credible evaluation result, research on a traveling wave tube reliability evaluation method fusing multi-source data is imperative.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, one of the main objectives of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating reliability of a spatial traveling wave tube based on multi-source data fusion, so as to at least partially solve at least one of the above technical problems.
In order to achieve the above object, as an aspect of the present invention, a method for evaluating reliability of a spatial traveling wave tube based on multi-source data fusion is provided, including the following steps:
s1, processing the collected data and extracting features;
s2, calculating the edge probability of the bottom-layer input node of the established Bayesian network model according to the result obtained in the step S1;
s3, calculating the edge probability of the input nodes of other layers of the Bayesian network model according to the edge probability of the bottom layer input node obtained in the step S2;
and S4, calculating a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube according to the calculation result obtained in the step S3 and the traveling wave tube Bayes network model.
Based on the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the method for evaluating the reliability of the spatial traveling wave tube based on the multi-source data fusion has at least one of the following advantages:
(1) the invention makes full use of the data of the traveling wave tube in the development stage, the ground test stage and the on-orbit flight stage, and makes up the defects of the traditional reliability estimation method based on single data, in particular to the following steps:
firstly, establishing a hierarchical Bayesian network according to FMEA (failure mode and influence analysis), FTA (fault tree analysis) and collected fault information of a space traveling wave tube and a traveling wave tube amplifier and the composition structure of each component of the traveling wave tube, wherein a node represents the failure mode of the traveling wave tube, and an arrow represents the causal relationship (cause pointing result) between a lower node and an upper node;
secondly, the bottom node of the invention selects data (from different stages/processes) capable of representing the service life and reliability of the traveling wave tube, wherein cathode accelerated life test data is associated with a fault mode related to an electron gun assembly, performance data and on-orbit telemetering data are associated with the fault modes of each assembly of the traveling wave tube, and environment simulation test data is associated with the fault mode sensitive to thermal cycle and thermal vacuum environment;
finally, the invention can update the edge probability value of the bottom node according to whether the bottom data of the Bayesian network is updated or not, and further update the reliability evaluation result of the traveling wave tube;
(2) the invention can utilize real-time on-orbit telemetering data to realize the running reliability evaluation of the traveling wave tube while carrying out static reliability evaluation on the product, and the result can be used as an important basis for the working state of a key single machine of the satellite and on-orbit health management;
(3) compared with a reliability evaluation method by a series-parallel connection model adopted in a reliability block diagram, the method adopting the Bayesian network model has the advantages of conditional independence, polymorphic expression, uncertain relation expression, flexible modeling, bidirectional reasoning and the like, so that the data in the multiple-stage process of the traveling wave tube are fused by the Bayesian network model, and the incidence relation between the characteristic parameters representing the reliability of the traveling wave tube and the fault mode is established.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of reliability evaluation using a Bayesian network model in the present embodiment;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a bayesian network model in the present embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the following specific embodiments.
The invention discloses a reliability evaluation method for a space traveling wave tube, which comprises the following steps:
s1, processing the collected data and extracting features;
s2, calculating the edge probability of the bottom-layer input node of the established Bayesian network model according to the result obtained in the step S1;
s3, calculating the edge probability of the input nodes of other layers of the Bayesian network model according to the edge probability of the bottom layer input node obtained in the step S2;
and S4, calculating a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube according to the calculation result obtained in the step S3 and the traveling wave tube Bayes network model.
After step S4, the method further includes:
s5, collecting data again, if the collected data is updated, repeating the steps S1-S4, and updating the reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube;
and the data acquisition process is continuous, the step S5 is repeated after one period of data acquisition is finished, and the reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube is continuously updated.
The method for processing the collected data and extracting the features in step S1 includes: cleaning and processing data according to the test characteristics and the data types of each stage of the space traveling wave tube;
the method for cleaning and processing the data in the step S1 comprises wild value elimination, deficiency value supplement, normalization and characteristic value extraction;
the data collected in step S1 includes data of a ground test phase and data of an on-orbit telemetry phase.
The ground test stage data comprises any one or more of environment simulation test data, cathode accelerated life test data and performance test data;
wherein the environmental simulation test data comprises data of thermal cycle and thermal vacuum phases;
wherein, the cathode accelerated life test data is collected in the accelerated life test process of the short tube of the electron gun;
wherein the performance test data comprises the output power of the traveling wave tube.
The method for establishing the bayesian network model in step S2 includes: establishing a Bayesian network model according to the fault mode and influence analysis, fault tree analysis, weak link analysis and characteristic parameters related to the reliability of the traveling wave tube amplifier and the traveling wave tube;
the characteristic parameters related to the reliability of the traveling wave tube comprise cathode accelerated life test data, on-orbit remote measurement data, performance data and environment simulation test data.
Wherein, the bayesian network model in the step S2 is a hierarchical bayesian network model.
Wherein, the input nodes of the bayesian network model in the step S2 sequentially include a top node, an upper node, a middle node and a bottom node from top to bottom;
the top node is a traveling wave tube abnormal node;
the upper-layer nodes comprise electron gun abnormal nodes, slow wave structure abnormal nodes, magnetic focusing system abnormal nodes and/or collector abnormal nodes; the middle-layer nodes comprise filament abnormal nodes, cathode abnormal nodes, anode abnormal nodes, beam bunching electrode abnormal nodes, spiral flow abnormal nodes, interelectrode insulation deterioration nodes, heat dissipation abnormal nodes and/or mismatch nodes;
the bottom layer nodes comprise a first node, a second node, a third node and a fourth node;
wherein the first node is characterized by cathode accelerated life test data; the second node is characterized with orbit telemetry data; the third node is characterized by performance data; and the fourth node is characterized by environmental simulation test data.
In step S2, the conditional probabilities between the bottom-layer node and the middle-layer node, between the middle-layer node and the upper-layer node, and between the upper-layer node and the top-layer node of the bayesian network model are determined according to expert experience, fault statistical information, and a quality zeroing report.
The conditional probability calculation method of the first node is as follows:
aiming at long-term accelerated life test data developed by a cathode, an Arrhenius model is utilized
Respectively calculating the acceleration factors of each test temperature relative to the normal working temperature, converting the equivalent test time of the cathode at the normal working temperature according to the test time developed at each temperature, and utilizing
Obtaining the equivalent accumulated total test time of the accelerated life test; and according to the failure number counted in the test process, according to an exponential distribution model R (t) ═ e-λtObtaining reliability point estimation of the end of the service life;
wherein A isi-acceleration factor, T0-temperature of the environment of use, Ti-the temperature of the acceleration is such that,
-accelerating the equivalent cumulative test time of the life test,
-cumulative accelerated life test time under ith stress, ni-the amount of test sample at the i-th stress,
-test time of jth sample under ith stress;
the conditional probability calculation method of the second node is as follows:
according to analysis of the variation trend of the on-orbit positive pressure and spiral flow degradation tracks and analysis of the product characteristics of the traveling wave tube amplifier, it is deduced that the degradation reasons of spiral flow and positive pressure remote measurement have correlation; first according to the covariance matrix
Judging the correlation between the degradation amounts; then adopting binary joint distribution for the spiral flow and the positive pressure, assuming that the product degradation obeys normal distribution, according to
Calculating the correlation coefficient between the spiral flow and the male pressure degradation amount to obtain a binary parameter joint probability density function
Finally, assuming that the upper limit of the degradation failure of the spiral current is 5mA and the upper limit of the degradation failure of the positive voltage rise is 350V, utilizing
Obtaining the reliability under the correlation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure;
the conditional probability calculation method of the third node is as follows:
for product performance parameters influenced by various random factors, the product performance parameters are generally considered to be in accordance with normal distribution, so that the output power of the traveling wave tube is assumed to be in accordance with normal distribution; for performance data, namely output power, of a plurality of traveling wave tubes in a decimetric wave band, judging whether the acquired output power comes from the same large sample matrix or not by utilizing normality test and variance homogeneity test; for samples from the same parent, the mean and variance of the parent of the large sample are respectively obtained and utilized
And
obtaining reliability point estimation based on the performance normality;
wherein mu is the mean value of the performance data, s is the variance of the performance data, K is the tolerance coefficient, L is the lower limit of the output power, and phi (K) is normal distribution;
wherein the decimetric waves include L waves and S waves;
the conditional probability calculation method of the fourth node is as follows:
mainly considering thermal cycle and thermal vacuum stages in the environment simulation test process of a sample piece, respectively utilizing a Norris-Landzberg model in the thermal cycle stage
And the thermal vacuum stage using the Arrhenius model
Obtaining an environmental factor, and obtaining reliability point estimation at the end of the service life by utilizing Weibull distribution according to the test time and failure data of the two stages;
wherein N isHL、NOThermal cycling, number of failure cycles under in-orbit stress, Δ THL、ΔTOTemperature range under thermal cycling, in-orbit stress, fHL、fOThermal cycling, cycling frequency under in-orbit stress, TmHL、TmOMaximum temperature in thermal cycling, cycling under in-orbit stress, LL、LHTime to failure at low, high stress, TL、TH-temperatures at low, high stress.
Wherein, the step S4 specifically includes: and calculating a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube by using Bayesian fusion software according to the updated Bayesian network model and the edge probability of each layer of input nodes.
In one embodiment of the present invention, for example, the following technical solutions are adopted:
in order to fully utilize data and quality problem information of each stage, the invention discloses a spatial traveling wave tube reliability assessment method based on multi-source data fusion, which associates data with a fault mode and improves the assessment precision of a domestic spatial traveling wave tube.
A traveling wave tube reliability assessment method based on multi-source data fusion comprises the following steps: building a Bayesian network model by using a space traveling wave tube, a space traveling wave tube amplifier FMEA, a space traveling wave tube FTA and quality problems, fusing ground test data (cathode accelerated life test data, performance test data and environment simulation test data) and on-orbit remote measurement data (traveling wave tube amplifier spiral flow and positive voltage), and according to the characteristics of the test and the data at each stage, adopting a corresponding evaluation method to respectively obtain reliability point estimation which is used as the edge probability of a Bayesian network model bottom node to be input into a network; and then, combining with expert experience, and obtaining a reliability evaluation result of the traveling wave tube by utilizing Bayesian reasoning.
The method comprises the following steps:
step one, establishing a Bayesian network model according to an amplifier of the traveling wave tube, FMEA and FTA of the traveling wave tube, weak link analysis and characteristic parameters capable of representing the reliability of the traveling wave tube for evaluating the reliability of the traveling wave tube;
collecting data of a ground test stage (an environment simulation test, a cathode accelerated life test and a performance test) and an on-orbit remote measuring stage, and performing data processing and feature extraction;
selecting a proper method (an expert experience method, an accelerated life test method, a data driving method, an environmental factor folding method and the like) according to the characteristics of the data of each phase, obtaining the edge probability of the input node at the bottom layer of the Bayesian network model, and determining the conditional probability of each input node to the upper node, namely a CPT table (conditional probability table) by combining a quality zeroing report, a fault problem list and expert experience;
step four, judging whether Bayesian updating is carried out or not according to whether the collected on-orbit data, cathode accelerated life test data, fault statistics and other data are updated or not;
and fifthly, calculating a reliability evaluation result of the traveling wave tube by using Bayes fusion software Genie.
Furthermore, the cathode accelerated life test data in the second step are acquired in the process that the M-type cathode is loaded on the electron gun short tube to perform the accelerated life test, and a reliability evaluation method based on the accelerated life test is adopted for the partial data. And respectively calculating acceleration factors at different temperatures by using an Arrhenius model to obtain equivalent total test time, and obtaining a reliability point estimation result at the end of the service life by using exponential distribution in combination with statistical failure data.
Further, the performance test data in the second step is the output power of the traveling wave tube. For product performance parameters influenced by various random factors, the product performance parameters are generally considered to be subjected to normal distribution, and a performance data-output power reliability evaluation method is utilized to carry out reliability evaluation on the product performance parameters;
further, the environmental simulation test data of the sample piece in the second step are data of thermal cycle and thermal vacuum stage. According to different characteristics of the two processes, the Norris-Landzberg model and the Arrhenius model are respectively adopted to calculate the environmental factors of the two stages, the test time of the traveling wave tubes in the two processes is combined to calculate the equivalent total test time, and then the reliability point estimation corresponding to the environmental simulation test data is obtained by utilizing Weibull distribution according to the counted number and failure number of the traveling wave tubes for a certain series of satellites.
Furthermore, in the in-orbit telemetry data in the second step, a binary parameter joint degradation model is constructed by using the spiral flow and the positive pressure data of a certain series of space traveling wave tube amplifiers for satellites, the degradation model is used for predicting the pseudo life data at the end of the life, and then the reliability point estimation result of the part is obtained.
Further, the evaluation result is input as the edge probability of the bottom node of the Bayesian network model, and the conditional probability of the upper node is determined according to the statistical fault information and the quality problem by combining with expert experience. And finally, updating the edge probability of the bottom node of the Bayesian network according to whether the data of each phase is updated or not, and further updating the reliability evaluation result of the traveling wave tube.
The technical solution of the present invention is further illustrated by the following specific embodiments and the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that the following specific examples are given by way of illustration only and the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto.
The traditional reliability assessment is to use a statistical method to obtain the failure data and failure time of the product through a large number of life and reliability tests. For reliability evaluation of the space traveling wave tube, at present, few documents and reports can be inquired, most of the documents and reports are a life test method directly used, but the method is time-consuming and labor-consuming, and has the problems of less accumulated reliability data, small statistical samples and the like. In order to fully utilize data of each stage of travelling wave tube development, production, test and on-orbit operation and expand reliability data and sample capacity, a method based on multi-source data fusion is needed to be adopted to associate the data of each stage with a fault mode and comprehensively evaluate the reliability of the travelling wave tube.
As shown in fig. 1 and 2, the invention discloses a method for evaluating reliability of a spatial traveling wave tube based on multi-source data fusion, which mainly comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a Bayesian network according to an amplifier of the traveling wave tube, FMEA and FTA of the traveling wave tube, weak link analysis and characteristic parameters capable of representing the reliability of the traveling wave tube for evaluating the reliability of the traveling wave tube;
in the step, by combing key factors influencing the reliability of the traveling wave tube, combining an FMEA (failure mode effect), an FTA (fiber to the array) and a quality zero report of the traveling wave tube amplifier and the traveling wave tube, a hierarchical Bayesian network is built, and a system is combined to obtain a Bayesian network model of the reliability of the traveling wave tube, wherein the lowest node of the model corresponds to test process data experienced by the traveling wave tube.
Step 2, collecting data of a ground test stage (an environment simulation test, a cathode accelerated life test and a performance test) and an on-orbit remote measuring stage, and performing data processing and feature extraction;
according to the test characteristics and the data types of the traveling wave tube in each stage, the data are cleaned and processed, and the steps comprise abnormal value removal, missing value supplement, normalization, characteristic value extraction and the like.
Step 3, selecting a proper method (an expert experience method, an accelerated life test method, a data driving method, an environmental factor folding method and the like) according to the characteristics of each stage of data, obtaining the edge probability of the input nodes of the Bayesian network, and determining the conditional probability of each input node to the upper nodes by combining a quality zeroing report, a fault problem list and expert experience;
in the step 2, the results of data processing and feature extraction are utilized, and by combining the type of the developed test and the characteristics of the collected data, reliability point estimation corresponding to each test stage is respectively obtained by adopting different methods, and the reliability point estimation is input into the Bayesian network as the edge probability value of the node at the bottommost layer. The conditional probability of the upper node of the bayesian network is determined based on expert experience, fault statistics, quality zeroing reports, etc. The edge probability value of the bottom layer node is determined as follows:
step 3.1 reliability assessment based on cathode accelerated life test
Aiming at long-term accelerated life test data developed by a cathode, an Arrhenius model is utilized
Respectively calculating the acceleration factors of each test temperature relative to the normal working temperature, converting the equivalent test time of the cathode at the normal working temperature according to the test time developed at each temperature, and utilizing
And obtaining the equivalent accumulated total test time of the accelerated life test. And according to the failure number counted in the test process, according to an exponential distribution model R (t) ═ e-λtAnd obtaining the reliability point estimation at the end of the service life.
Wherein A isi-acceleration factor, T0Temperature of the environment of use, Ti-the temperature of the acceleration is set to,
-accelerating the equivalent cumulative test time of the life test,
-cumulative accelerated life test time under ith stress, ni-the amount of test sample at the i-th stress,
-test time for jth sample under ith stress.
Step 3.2 Performance Normal-based reliability assessment
For product performance parameters affected by various random factors, the product performance parameters are generally considered to be in a normal distribution, and therefore the output power of the traveling wave tube is assumed to be in a normal distribution. For the performance data-output power of a plurality of L-band traveling wave tubes, the output power is judged whether to come from the same large sample matrix by utilizing the normality test and the variance homogeneity test. For samples from the same population, the mean and variance of the population of the large sample are then determined, using
And
and solving reliability point estimation based on the performance normality.
Wherein μ is the mean value of the performance data, s is the variance of the performance data, K is the tolerance coefficient, L is the lower limit of the output power, and Φ (K) is the normal distribution.
Step 3.3 telemetry parameter based on-track reliability assessment
According to the on-orbit positive pressure and spiral flow degradation trajectory change trend analysis and the traveling wave tube amplifier product characteristic analysis, the method deduces that the degradation reasons of spiral flow and positive pressure remote measurement have correlation. First according to the covariance matrix
A correlation between the degradation amounts is judged. Then adopting binary joint distribution for the spiral flow and the positive pressure, assuming that the product degradation obeys normal distribution, according to
Calculating the correlation coefficient between the spiral flow and the male pressure degradation amount to obtain a binary parameter joint probability density function
Finally, assuming that the upper limit of the degradation failure of the spiral current is 5mA and the upper limit of the degradation failure of the positive voltage rise is 350V, utilizing
And obtaining the reliability under the correlation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure.
Step 3.4 reliability assessment based on environmental factor conversion
The method mainly considers the thermal cycle and the thermal vacuum stage in the environment simulation test process of the sample piece, and respectively utilizes a Norris-Landzberg model in the thermal cycle stage
And the thermal vacuum stage utilizes an Arrhenius model
And (5) solving an environmental factor, and solving reliability point estimation at the end of the service life by utilizing Weibull distribution according to the test time and failure data of the two stages.
Wherein N isHL、NOThermal cycling, number of failure cycles under in-orbit stress, Δ THL、ΔTOThermal cycling, temperature range under in-orbit stress, fHL、fOThermal cycling, cycling frequency under in-orbit stress, TmHL、TmOMaximum temperature in thermal cycling, cycling under in-orbit stress, LL、LHTime to failure at low, high stress, TL、TH-temperatures at low, high stress.
Step 4, judging whether Bayesian updating is carried out or not according to whether the collected on-orbit data, cathode accelerated life test data, fault statistics and other data are updated or not;
the step judges whether Bayesian updating is carried out or not according to whether the data source of the Bayesian network bottom node is updated or not, so that the final traveling wave tube reliability evaluation result is updated. The data which can be updated is on-track telemetering data generally, and the running wave tube operation reliability can be evaluated according to the partial data.
And 5, outputting a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube by using Genie software.
The reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube is calculated by using Bayesian fusion software Genie according to the built traveling wave tube Bayesian network reliability evaluation model and the CPT table.
The method provided by the present invention is further illustrated by the following examples.
For example, for a traveling wave tube for a certain satellite, data of multiple stages are fully fused according to a built Bayesian network model, and a correlation relation is established between a reliability characterization parameter of the traveling wave tube and a fault mode. The edge probability value of the bayesian network bottom node corresponding to the cathode accelerated life test data obtained in step 3.1 is 0.925, the edge probability value of the bayesian network bottom node corresponding to the performance data-output power obtained in step 3.2 is 0.9907, the edge probability value of the bayesian network bottom node corresponding to the in-orbit telemetry data-spiral current and positive voltage obtained in step 3.3 is 0.938, and the edge probability value of the bayesian network bottom node corresponding to the environment simulation test data obtained in step 3.4 is 0.92. And finally, carrying out causal reasoning of the Bayesian network by combining a CPT table, and obtaining a reliability point of the traveling wave tube at the end of 12-year service life, wherein the reliability point is estimated to be 0.94. This assessment result is more illustrative because the data and quality issue information incorporating multiple stages is more than the end-of-12-year reliability point estimate of 0.938 using traditional statistical methods.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (15)
1. A reliability evaluation method for a space traveling wave tube is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, processing the collected data and extracting characteristics, wherein the collected data comprises data in a ground test stage and data in an on-orbit telemetry stage, and the data in the ground test stage comprises any one or more of environmental simulation test data, cathode accelerated life test data and performance test data;
s2, calculating the edge probability of the bottom-layer input node of the established Bayesian network model according to the result obtained in the step S1;
s3, calculating the edge probability of the input nodes of other layers of the Bayesian network model according to the edge probability of the bottom layer input node obtained in the step S2;
s4, calculating a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube according to the calculation result obtained in the step S3 and the traveling wave tube Bayes network model;
wherein, the input nodes of the bayesian network model in the step S2 sequentially include a top node, an upper node, a middle node and a bottom node from top to bottom;
the top node is a traveling wave tube abnormal node;
the upper-layer nodes comprise electron gun abnormal nodes, slow wave structure abnormal nodes, magnetic focusing system abnormal nodes and/or collector abnormal nodes;
the middle-layer nodes comprise filament abnormal nodes, cathode abnormal nodes, anode abnormal nodes, beam bunching electrode abnormal nodes, spiral flow abnormal nodes, interelectrode insulation deterioration nodes, heat dissipation abnormal nodes and/or mismatch nodes;
the bottom layer nodes comprise a first node, a second node, a third node and a fourth node;
the first node is characterized by cathode accelerated life test data; the second node is characterized with orbit telemetry data; the third node is characterized by performance data; and the fourth node is characterized by environmental simulation test data.
2. The evaluation method according to claim 1,
after step S4, the method further includes:
and S5, collecting the data again, if the collected data is updated, repeating the steps S1-S4, and updating the reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube.
3. The evaluation method according to claim 2,
the data acquisition process is continuous, and step S5 is repeated after one period of data acquisition is finished, and the reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube is continuously updated.
4. The evaluation method according to claim 1,
the method for processing the collected data and extracting the features in the step S1 includes: and cleaning and processing the data according to the test characteristics and the data types of each stage of the space traveling wave tube.
5. The evaluation method according to claim 4,
the method for cleaning and processing data in step S1 includes wild value elimination, missing value supplement, normalization, and feature value extraction.
6. The evaluation method according to claim 5,
the environmental simulation test data includes data for thermal cycling and thermal vacuum phases.
7. The evaluation method according to claim 6,
the cathode accelerated life test data is collected in the accelerated life test process of the short tube of the electron gun.
8. The evaluation method according to claim 7,
the performance test data comprises the output power of the traveling wave tube.
9. The evaluation method according to claim 1,
the method for establishing the bayesian network model in the step S2 includes: and establishing a Bayesian network model according to the fault mode and influence analysis, the fault tree analysis, the weak link analysis and the characteristic parameters related to the reliability of the traveling wave tube amplifier and the traveling wave tube.
10. The evaluation method according to claim 9,
the characteristic parameters related to the reliability of the traveling wave tube comprise cathode accelerated life test data, on-orbit remote measurement data, performance data and environment simulation test data.
11. The evaluation method according to claim 1,
the bayesian network model in said step S2 is a hierarchical bayesian network model.
12. The evaluation method according to claim 1,
the conditional probabilities between the bottom-layer node and the middle-layer node, between the middle-layer node and the upper-layer node, and between the upper-layer node and the top-layer node of the bayesian network model in the step S2 are determined according to one or more of expert experience, fault statistical information, and quality zeroing reports.
13. The evaluation method according to claim 12,
the conditional probability calculation method of the first node is as follows:
aiming at long-term accelerated life test data developed by a cathode, an Arrhenius model is utilized
Respectively calculating the acceleration factors of each test temperature relative to the normal working temperature, converting the equivalent test time of the cathode at the normal working temperature according to the test time developed at each temperature, and utilizing
Obtaining the equivalent accumulated total test time of the accelerated life test; and according to the failure number counted in the test process, according to an exponential distribution model R (t) ═e -λtObtaining reliability point estimation of the end of the service life;
wherein A isi-acceleration factor, T0Temperature of the environment of use, Ti-the temperature of the acceleration is such that,
-accelerating the equivalent cumulative test time of the life test,
-cumulative accelerated life test time under ith stress, ni-the amount of test sample at the i-th stress,
-test time of jth sample under ith stress;
the conditional probability calculation method of the second node is as follows:
according to analysis of the variation trend of the on-orbit positive pressure and spiral flow degradation tracks and analysis of the product characteristics of the traveling wave tube amplifier, it is deduced that the degradation reasons of spiral flow and positive pressure remote measurement have correlation; first according to the covariance matrix
Judging the correlation between the degradation amounts; then adopting binary joint distribution for the spiral flow and the positive pressure, assuming that the product degradation obeys normal distribution, according to
Calculating the correlation coefficient between the spiral flow and the male pressure degradation amount to obtain a binary parameter joint probability density function
Finally, assuming that the upper limit of the degradation failure of the spiral current is 5mA and the upper limit of the degradation failure of the positive voltage rise is 350V, utilizing
Obtaining the reliability under the correlation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure;
the conditional probability calculation method of the third node is as follows:
for product performance parameters influenced by various random factors, the product performance parameters are generally considered to be in accordance with normal distribution, so that the output power of the traveling wave tube is assumed to be in accordance with normal distribution; for performance data, namely output power, of a plurality of traveling wave tubes in a decimetric wave band, judging whether the acquired output power comes from the same large sample matrix or not by utilizing normality test and variance homogeneity test; for samples from the same parent, the mean and variance of the parent of the large sample are respectively obtained and utilized
And R is phi (P), and reliability point estimation based on the performance normality is obtained;
where μ is the mean of the performance data, σ2The variance of the performance data, P is the tolerance coefficient, L is the lower limit of the output power, and Φ (P) is the normal distribution.
14. The evaluation method according to claim 13,
the decimetric waves comprise L waves and S waves;
the conditional probability calculation method of the fourth node is as follows:
mainly considering thermal cycle and thermal vacuum stage in the process of a sample environmental simulation test, respectively utilizing a Norris-Landzberg model in the thermal cycle stage
And the thermal vacuum stage using the Arrhenius model
Obtaining an environmental factor, and obtaining reliability point estimation at the end of the service life by utilizing Weibull distribution according to the test time and failure data of the two stages;
wherein N isHL、NOThermal cycling, number of failure cycles under in-orbit stress, THL、TOThermal cycling, temperature range under in-orbit stress, fHL、fOThermal cycling, cycling frequency under in-orbit stress, TmHL、TmOMaximum temperature in thermal cycling, cycling under in-orbit stress, LL、LHTime to failure at low, high stress, TL、TH-temperatures at low, high stress.
15. The evaluation method according to claim 1,
the step S4 specifically includes: and calculating a reliability point estimation result of the traveling wave tube by using Bayesian fusion software according to the updated Bayesian network model and the edge probability of each layer of input nodes.
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