CN109284535B - Method and device for evaluating reliability of space traveling wave tube amplifier based on telemetering parameters - Google Patents
Method and device for evaluating reliability of space traveling wave tube amplifier based on telemetering parameters Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for evaluating the reliability of a space traveling wave tube amplifier based on-orbit remote measurement parameters. The invention can improve the efficiency of on-orbit monitoring and health evaluation of the space traveling wave tube amplifier product.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of reliability evaluation of spacecraft single-unit products, in particular to a method and a device for evaluating the reliability of a space traveling wave tube amplifier based on-orbit telemetry parameters.
Background
The reliability of the traveling wave tube, which is used as a key component of a communication satellite and a navigation satellite, is very important for the normal operation of the whole satellite system. However, the traveling wave tube structure is complex and expensive, and the number of products generally available for testing is small, so that the reliability of the traveling wave tube structure is conservative to evaluate by using a traditional statistical method.
The traditional reliability evaluation is to take failure time as a statistical subsystem object, and usually obtain the failure data of the product through a large number of life tests or accelerated life tests, however, for a traveling wave tube product with high reliability and long service life, it is difficult to obtain the failure data of the product through the tests. To solve this problem, many methods for establishing a reliability evaluation model using a priori information have been derived. Particularly, for the domestic traveling wave tube which is put into on-orbit use in recent years, the number of products in on-orbit operation is relatively small, the operation time is short, and the failure rate and reliability evaluation value of the product are still low under the conditions of long service life and high confidence coefficient. Therefore, in order to enhance on-track monitoring and health assessment of the traveling wave tube amplifier product, more research on reliability assessment methods for the product is imperative.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, in order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a method and a device for evaluating the reliability of a spatial traveling-wave tube amplifier based on-orbit telemetry parameters, which improve the efficiency of on-orbit monitoring and health evaluation of a spatial traveling-wave tube amplifier product.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention is realized as follows:
a reliability evaluation method for a space traveling wave tube amplifier based on-orbit telemetry parameters comprises the following steps: and constructing a degradation model by using on-orbit data, namely the spiral flow and positive pressure change quantity of the traveling wave tube amplifier, which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier, predicting the service life data of the product at the end of the service life by using the degradation model, and further estimating the reliability of the product.
Preferably, the method comprises the steps of:
step one, acquiring the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity of a traveling wave tube amplifier;
performing trend fitting by using the obtained spiral flow and positive pressure change of the traveling wave tube amplifier to obtain a degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change;
estimating parameters of the degradation model by using a least square method according to the on-orbit data;
step four, calculating the pseudo life data of the product spiral flow and the positive pressure variable at the end of the life according to the degradation model obtained in the step three;
and step five, calculating the mean value and the standard deviation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change of the product at the end of the service life by using the pseudo service life data obtained in the step four, assuming that the reliability of the product follows normal distribution, and estimating the reliability of the product according to the failure threshold of the product.
Preferably, the acquisition mode of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change of the traveling wave tube amplifier is as follows: obtaining a spiral flow of voltage values from on-track telemetry data, multiplying by a factor K VI Converting the current value into a current value; and acquiring the positive pressure from the on-orbit telemetry data, and taking the initial positive pressure remote measurement value as the basis, wherein the positive pressure difference value between the subsequent moment and the initial telemetry is the positive pressure change quantity.
Preferably, the trend fitting in the second step is performed to obtain degradation models of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity, which are respectively:
I hi ＝a i t+b i (3)
V Ai ＝c i t+d i (4)
wherein, I hi Showing the spiral flow of the ith product, V Ai Showing the variation of the pressure of the ith product, t is time, a i 、b i 、c i 、d i Model parameters of the two degradation models to be determined are respectively.
Preferably, the estimating of the reliability of the product according to the failure threshold of the product in the fifth step is as follows:
step a, substituting the mean value and the standard deviation calculated according to the pseudo life data into a normal distribution function to obtain a reliability point estimation value;
b, reversely checking the confidence lower limit national standard GB/T4885 of the confidence lower limit of the confidence of the normal distribution complete sample to obtain a reliability lower limit by using the selected confidence, the product quantity and the intermediate variable obtained in the normal distribution calculation process, and then calculating the failure rate of the product;
respectively calculating a reliability point estimation value, a reliability lower limit and a failure rate for the spiral flow and the positive pressure variable according to the steps a and b; and (4) according to a series model with independent spiral flow and positive pressure variable degradation, integrating the calculation results to obtain a total reliability point estimation value, a total failure rate and a total service life reliability lower limit of the product.
The invention also provides a device for evaluating the reliability of the space traveling wave tube amplifier based on the on-orbit remote measurement parameters, which comprises the following components:
the model building module is used for building a degradation model by utilizing on-orbit data, namely the spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier, which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier;
and the estimation module is used for predicting the service life data of the end stage of the service life of the product by using the degradation model so as to estimate the reliability of the product.
Preferably, the model building module comprises:
the acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier and sending the spiral flow and positive voltage variation to the model fitting submodule;
the model fitting submodule is used for performing trend fitting by using the obtained spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier to obtain a degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive voltage variation;
the model parameter determination submodule is used for estimating parameters of the degradation model by a least square method according to the on-orbit data;
the estimation module includes:
the pseudo life data acquisition submodule is used for acquiring a degradation model and parameters thereof according to the model construction module, calculating pseudo life data of the product spiral flow and the positive pressure variable at the end of the life and sending the pseudo life data to the estimation submodule;
and the estimation submodule is used for calculating the mean value and the standard deviation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity of the product at the end of the service life by using the pseudo service life data, assuming that the reliability of the product follows normal distribution, and estimating the reliability of the product according to the failure threshold of the product.
Preferably, the acquisition submodule acquires a spiral flow represented by a voltage value from the on-track telemetry data, and multiplies the spiral flow by a coefficient K VI Converting the current value into a current value; telemetry from on-trackAnd acquiring the positive pressure, wherein the positive pressure difference value between the subsequent moment and the initial remote measurement is the positive pressure change quantity on the basis of the initial positive pressure remote measurement value.
Preferably, the model fitting submodule performs trend fitting to obtain degradation models of the spiral flow and the positive pressure variation, wherein the degradation models are respectively as follows:
I hi ＝a i t+b i (3)
V Ai ＝c i t+d i (4)
wherein, I hi Showing the spiral flow of the ith product, V Ai Denotes the change of the positive pressure of the ith product, t denotes time, a i 、b i 、c i 、d i The model parameters of the two degradation models to be determined are respectively.
Has the advantages that:
(1) The invention fully utilizes the traveling wave tube amplifier on-orbit telemetering data to estimate the reliability of the product, makes up the defects of the traditional reliability estimation method based on working time statistics, and particularly comprises the following steps:
first, the reliability evaluation using performance degradation data has the following advantages: 1) Degradation is a natural attribute of a product, and performance data of the product can be monitored to obtain the performance degradation data whether the product fails or not. 2) The performance degradation data may be applied in the case of only a few or zero failures, and may provide more information than the time-to-failure data. 3) Performance degradation data can lead to more accurate life estimates than accelerated life tests of little or zero failure, i.e., for zero failure products, more useful reliability inferences can be drawn using the degradation data.
Secondly, the invention selects two key telemetering parameters, namely the spiral flow which can represent the output power of the traveling wave tube amplifier and the positive pressure which can represent the working condition of the traveling wave tube amplifier, as the performance degradation parameters for reliability evaluation. On one hand, the two parameters can be monitored in real time on the orbit, and the on-orbit change essentially reflects the physical-chemical change in the product under the actual on-orbit working condition and the loading stress, so that the comprehensive embodiment of the reliability degradation of the product is realized; on the other hand, various failure modes and failure mechanisms of the product can be reflected on the two telemetric parameters.
(2) The degradation trend analysis and prediction method based on the spiral flow and the anode pressure telemetering data of the traveling wave tube amplifier is used for evaluating the reliability of a product and is also used as a basis for analyzing the trend of important performance parameters of the product in the in-orbit management work of a satellite, so that the in-orbit monitoring of the product performance is enhanced, and possible abnormity or fault is found in advance.
Drawings
FIG. 1 shows the actual variation trend of spiral flow of the product in orbit;
FIG. 2 shows the on-orbit actual variation trend of the product positive pressure variation;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the traditional reliability evaluation, failure time is taken as a statistical analysis object, and failure data of a product is obtained through a large number of life tests. For the reliability evaluation of the space traveling wave tube amplifier, a direct life test method is most reliable, but for the space traveling wave tube amplifier with high reliability and long service life, if the long-time life test is carried out, the result can be obtained at least after 10 years, and the time and the cost are wasted. In addition, failure data of the product can be obtained through an accelerated life test, but the problems of less reliability data, small statistical samples and the like still exist, and the reliability of the product is evaluated by adopting a classical probability statistical method, so that an accurate result is difficult to obtain.
Since the failure mechanism of most products can ultimately be traced back to the process of potential performance degradation of the product, it can be thought that the performance degradation ultimately leads to product failure (or failure) in some sense. Therefore, besides failure time data of the product, performance degradation data can also be used as important data in reliability analysis, especially under the condition that failure data acquired in a test are few or no, the effective utilization of the performance degradation data to research the reliability of the product or system has important significance, and the defect of the traditional reliability evaluation method on high-reliability product analysis can be overcome.
The performance degradation data of the product contains more reliability information relative to the time to failure data. The reliability evaluation using the performance degradation data has the following advantages:
1) Degradation is a natural attribute of a product, and performance data of the product can be monitored to obtain the performance degradation data whether the product fails or not.
2) The performance degradation data may be applied in the case of only a few or zero failures, and may provide more information than the time-to-failure data.
3) Performance degradation data can lead to more accurate life estimates than accelerated life tests of little or zero failure, i.e., for zero failure products, more useful reliability inferences can be drawn using the degradation data.
The invention provides a reliability evaluation method of a space traveling wave tube amplifier based on-orbit remote measurement parameters, which is characterized by selecting performance degradation parameters capable of reflecting the performance of the space traveling wave tube amplifier, establishing a corresponding time-varying degradation model, predicting life data at the end of the service life of a product by using the degradation model and further evaluating the reliability of the product.
When judging whether the product is degraded and failed, several main performance indexes of the product are generally required to be selected as performance degradation parameters, and when one or more of the indexes exceeds a failure threshold value, the product is considered to be degraded and failed. Therefore, the performance degradation parameter must have two conditions: firstly, accurate definition and monitoring are required; and secondly, with the extension of the working or testing time of the product, the trend changes obviously, and the working state of the product can be objectively reflected.
Based on the selection principle of the performance degradation parameters, the invention selects two key telemetering parameters, namely the spiral flow which can represent the output power of the traveling wave tube amplifier and the positive pressure which can represent the working condition of the traveling wave tube amplifier, as the performance degradation parameters for reliability evaluation. On one hand, the two parameters can be monitored in real time on the track, and the on-track change essentially reflects the physical-chemical change in the product under the actual working condition and the loading stress of the track, so that the comprehensive embodiment of the reliability degradation of the product is realized; on the other hand, various failure modes and failure mechanisms of the product can be embodied on the two telemetric parameters.
Based on the analysis, the invention provides a reliability evaluation method of a space traveling wave tube amplifier based on-orbit telemetry parameters, which has the following basic idea: and constructing a degradation model by using on-orbit data, namely the spiral flow and positive pressure change of the traveling wave tube amplifier, which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier, predicting the service life data at the end of the service life of the product by using the degradation model, and further estimating the reliability of the product.
The embodiment of the present invention takes 15L-band traveling wave tube amplifiers used in orbit by a certain series of satellites as samples, and a specific implementation of the present invention is explained, referring to a flow chart of fig. 3, which mainly includes the following steps:
step one, acquiring on-track telemetering data.
The step obtains on-orbit data which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier, namely the spiral flow and the positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier.
Since the spiral telemetry shows the voltage value, it needs to be multiplied by K VI The coefficient of =1.75mA/V is converted into a current value, the positive voltage change quantity is based on the initial positive voltage remote measurement value, and the positive voltage difference value between the subsequent time and the initial remote measurement is the positive voltage change quantity. Namely, it is
I hi ＝1.75×IXA i (1)
V Ai ＝VXA i -VXA i0 (2)
In the formula:
I hi representing the value (unit: mA) of the converted spiral current telemetering current of the ith product;
IXA i the spiral flow telemetry voltage value (unit: V) of the ith product is represented;
V Ai showing the value of the variation of the positive pressure of the ith product (unit: V);
VXA i represents the anode pressure telemetering value (unit: V) of the ith product;
VXA i0 indicates the initial sun of the ith productPressure telemetry value (unit: V);
in a preferred embodiment, in order to ensure the accuracy of the model obtained according to the data, the obtained travelling wave tube amplifier spiral flow telemetry data and the obtained positive pressure telemetry data are subjected to outlier elimination processing before conversion is further carried out, so that telemetry jump caused by unstable satellite telemetry downloading or system use change is eliminated.
And step two, telemetering variation trend analysis.
The obtained spiral flow and positive pressure change of the traveling wave tube amplifier are used for trend fitting to obtain a degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
analyzing the on-orbit spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity of the processed product, and drawing a curve of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity along with the change of time, wherein the curve is shown in the attached drawings 1 and 2 (only 5 of the products are taken as examples because the number of the products is large). As can be seen from the change tracks of the samples in the figure, the change quantities of the spiral flow and the positive pressure are changed in a substantially straight line, so that the change quantities of the spiral flow and the positive pressure are analyzed by a linear degradation model.
Assuming linear degradation models of the helical flow and the positive pressure change are respectively:
I hi ＝a i t+b i (3)
V Ai ＝c i t+d i (4)
wherein, a i 、b i 、c i 、d i The model parameters of the two degradation models to be determined are respectively.
And step three, estimating parameters of the linear degradation model.
And estimating the linear degradation model parameters of each traveling wave tube amplifier by using a least square method according to the on-orbit data.
(1) Regression model parameter estimation for spiral flow
For n products working on the orbit for a long time, selecting m products according to a rule of selecting a telemetering parameter every day i Obtaining a data matrix (I) of the spiral flow corresponding to time according to spiral flow parameters (I =1, 2.. N) hij ,t ij )(j＝1,2,...m i ). The undetermined parameter a is obtained by using the formulas (5) to (8) i And b i . In this example m i Selecting the product corresponding to the on-orbit starting working days of each product.
Wherein S is xxi 、S xyi Is an intermediate amount;
t represents time (unit: day)
I hi (t) shows the time law for the ith product stream.
(2) Degradation model parameter estimation of positive pressure variation
For n products working on the orbit for a long time, m is selected for each product according to a rule of selecting a telemetering parameter every day i Obtaining a data matrix (V) of the positive pressure change quantity corresponding to time by each positive pressure change quantity parameter (i =1, 2.. N) Aij ,t ij )(j＝1,2,...m i ). Using the formula (10 Equation (13) to find the undetermined parameter c i And d i 。
Wherein, V xxi 、V xyi Is an intermediate amount;
t represents time (unit: day)
V Ai (t) shows the change rule of the variation of the positive pressure of the ith product along with time.
According to the above formula, the calculated fitting coefficients of the linear degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change are shown in the following table.
TABLE 1 fitting coefficients of the amount of change in the spiral flow and the positive pressure
And step four to step five, reliability evaluation.
Estimating the data of the spiral flow and the positive pressure variation at the end of the service life (the end of the service life is the date of the design service life of the satellite at the end of the service life) according to the linear degradation model fitted in the third step; and calculating the mean value and standard deviation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity of the product at the end of the service life, assuming that a product sample obeys normal distribution, respectively taking the spiral flow exceeding 5mA and the positive pressure rising 200V as failure criterion upper limits, estimating the reliability point of the product, and obtaining the product reliability lower limit.
(1) Reliability estimation from spiral flow
First, the spiral flow data at the end of life of each product is calculated according to the formula (15), and the mean value and standard deviation of the sample spiral flow are calculated according to the formula (16) and the formula (17).
In the formula: i is hEndi Representing the screw flow value at the end of the service life of the ith product estimated according to the linear degradation model;
t end denotes the end of life (in days), and t is the end of life when the satellite is designed to have a life of 8 years end 8 × 365=2920 days;
S I showing the standard deviation of spiral flow of n products at the end of life;
then, the product spiral flow sample is subjected to normal distribution, and the spiral flow exceeding 5mA is taken as the upper limit of the failure criterion, namely I h0 =5mA, confidence γ =0.60, and reliability point estimation is performedAnd the confidence coefficient is 0.6 selected according to QJA307-2014 reliability evaluation requirements of aerospace stand-alone products and reliability evaluation data of foreign traveling wave tube amplifiers.
The estimation model is:
in the formula: u is the upper limit of the performance requirement;
s is an integral variable and has no practical significance;
r is a normal distribution function;
σ and μ represent the mean and mean square error of a normal distribution, respectively.
The product reliability point estimate from the spiral flow is calculated according to equation (19) and equation (20):
in the formula: k I Is an intermediate variable;
Φ (—) is the standard normal distribution function.
Finally, according to gamma, n, K I The lower limit of the reliability can be obtained by reversely checking GB/T4885 (the national standard for confidence lower limit of the reliability of a normal distribution complete sample)
The failure rate of the product is calculated according to equation (21):
in the formula: λ is product failure rate, unit is fit,1fit =10 -9 In terms of a/hour.
Calculating to obtain the spiral flow at the end of the service life of each in-orbit product according to the 8-year service life requirement of the product, wherein the spiral flow is shown in a table 2; calculating to obtain a mean value of 3.23 at the end stage of the service life of the spiral flow and a standard deviation of 1.42, and calculating to obtain an estimated value of a reliability point of the service life of 8 years according to a formula (21) to be 0.89; according to γ =0.60,n =15,k I =1.2465, and the lower limit R of the reliability of 8 years can be obtained by back checking GB/T4885 LI =0.971; calculating the failure rate lambda according to the formula (21) I ＝420fit。
(2) Reliability estimation based on positive pressure variation
First, the data of the variation of the positive pressure at the end of the service life of each product is calculated according to the formula (22), and the mean value and the standard deviation of the variation of the positive pressure of the sample are calculated according to the formula (23) and the formula (24).
In the formula: v AEndi Representing the variation of the positive pressure at the end of the service life of the ith product estimated according to the linear degradation model;
S VA representing the standard deviation of the variation of the positive pressure of n products at the end of the service life;
then, the variation of the product positive pressure is usedThe sample obeys normal distribution, and the positive pressure variation quantity exceeding 200V is taken as the upper limit of the failure criterion, namely V A0 =200V, confidence γ =0.60, and reliability point estimation is performed.
The estimation model is the same as equation (18).
And calculating the product reliability point estimation obtained according to the positive pressure change quantity according to a formula (25) and a formula (26):
in the formula: k V Is an intermediate variable;
Φ (—) is the standard normal distribution function.
Finally, according to gamma, n, K V The lower limit of the reliability can be obtained by back checking GB/T4885
The failure rate of the product is calculated according to the formula (21).
Calculating the change of the positive pressure at the end of the service life of each in-orbit product according to the 8-year service life requirement of the product, wherein the change of the positive pressure at the end of the service life of each in-orbit product is shown in a table 2; calculating to obtain a mean value of 49.38 and a standard deviation of 38.50 at the end of the service life of the variable capacity of the positive pressure, and calculating to obtain an estimated value of a reliability point of the service life of 8 years according to a formula (21), wherein the estimated value of the reliability point of the service life of the 8 years is 0.99; according to γ =0.60,n =15,k V =3.9122, look back at GB/T4885, can obtain reliability lower limit R LV =0.9991; calculating the failure rate lambda according to the formula (21) V ＝129fit。
TABLE 2 calculated values of the change of the screw flow and the positive pressure at the end of the 8-year life
According to a series model with independent spiral flow and positive pressure degradation, the total failure rate of the product is lambda = lambda I +λ V A lower limit R of 8-year life reliability of 549fit L ＝R LI ×R LV 0.962, total reliability point estimate of
The present invention is compared with a conventional product reliability assessment method based on statistical working hours.
The traditional formula for calculating the lower limit of the failure rate and the reliability of the product by utilizing the accumulated working time is as follows:
in the formula:
λ u for product failure rate
T is the total working time of the product
r is the number of failed products
C is confidence coefficient
R L To the lower limit of reliability
Table 3 shows the comparison of the results of the evaluation of 15 in-orbit L-band traveling-wave tube amplifiers by the method for evaluating the variation of the atmospheric pressure and the spiral flow (method 1) according to the present invention and the conventional method for evaluating the variation of the atmospheric pressure (method 2) according to the accumulated operating time (the confidence is 0.6).
TABLE 3 comparison of results of two reliability evaluation methods
| Failure rate (fits) | Reliability for 8 | |
| Method | ||
| 1 | 549 | 0.962 |
| |
2916 | 0.815 |
As can be seen from the table, the evaluation result based on the conventional working time statistics tends to be conservative, and the estimated failure rate 2916fits does not meet the failure rate index of 1600fits specified by the product technical requirements. And the reliability evaluation method based on the on-orbit remote measurement parameter (spiral flow and positive pressure) method is relatively more optimistic in result and lower in product failure rate.
In order to realize the method, the invention also provides a device for evaluating the reliability of the space traveling wave tube amplifier based on the on-orbit telemetry parameters, which comprises the following steps:
the model building module is used for building a degradation model by utilizing on-orbit data, namely the spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier, which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier;
and the estimation module is used for predicting the service life data of the end stage of the service life of the product by using the degradation model so as to estimate the reliability of the product.
The model building module comprises:
and the acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the spiral flow and the positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier and sending the spiral flow and the positive voltage variation to the model fitting submodule. In particular, the acquisition submodule acquires a spiral flow represented by a voltage value from on-track telemetry data, multiplied by a factor K VI Converting the current value into a current value; and acquiring the positive pressure from the on-orbit telemetry data, and taking the initial positive pressure telemetry value as the basis, wherein the positive pressure difference value between the subsequent time and the initial telemetry is the positive pressure variation.
And the model fitting submodule is used for performing trend fitting by using the acquired spiral flow and positive pressure change quantity of the traveling wave tube amplifier to obtain a degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity. And the model fitting submodule carries out trend fitting to obtain degradation models of the spiral flow and the positive pressure variable, which are respectively referred to formulas (3) and (4).
The model parameter determination submodule is used for estimating parameters of the degradation model by a least square method according to the on-orbit data;
the estimation module comprises:
the pseudo life data acquisition submodule is used for acquiring a degradation model and parameters thereof according to the model construction module, calculating pseudo life data of the product spiral flow and the positive pressure variable at the end of the life and sending the pseudo life data to the estimation submodule;
and the estimation submodule is used for calculating the mean value and the standard deviation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity of the product at the end of the service life by using the pseudo service life data, assuming that the reliability of the product follows normal distribution, and estimating the reliability of the product according to the failure threshold of the product.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A reliability evaluation method for a space traveling wave tube amplifier based on-orbit telemetry parameters is characterized by comprising the following steps: constructing a degradation model by using on-orbit data, namely the spiral flow and positive pressure change of the traveling wave tube amplifier, which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier, predicting life data at the end of the service life of a product by using the degradation model, and further estimating the reliability of the product;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step one, acquiring the spiral flow and positive voltage variation of a traveling wave tube amplifier;
obtaining a spiral flow represented by a voltage value from on-track telemetry data, multiplying by a coefficient
Converting the current value into a current value; acquiring the positive pressure from the on-orbit telemetry data, and taking the initial positive pressure telemetry value as the basis, wherein the positive pressure difference value between the subsequent time and the initial telemetry is the positive pressure variable;
performing trend fitting by using the obtained spiral flow and positive pressure change of the traveling wave tube amplifier to obtain a degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change;
the degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive pressure change quantity is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,I hi is shown asiThe spiral flow of the table product is realized,V Ai is shown asiThe variation of the positive pressure of the product,tthe indication is a time of day,a i 、b i 、c i 、d i model parameters of two degradation models to be determined are respectively;
estimating parameters of the degradation model by using a least square method according to the on-orbit data;
step four, calculating the pseudo life data of the product spiral flow and the positive pressure variable at the end of the life according to the degradation model obtained in the step three;
and step five, calculating the mean value and the standard deviation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure variable of the product at the end of the service life by using the pseudo service life data obtained in the step four, assuming that the reliability of the product obeys normal distribution, and estimating the reliability of the product according to the failure threshold of the product.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the product reliability estimation based on the failure threshold of the product in step five is:
step a, substituting the mean value and the standard deviation calculated according to the pseudo life data into a normal distribution function to obtain a reliability point estimation value;
b, reversely checking the confidence lower limit national standard GB/T4885 of the confidence lower limit of the confidence of the normal distribution complete sample to obtain a reliability lower limit by using the selected confidence, the product quantity and the intermediate variable obtained in the normal distribution calculation process, and then calculating the failure rate of the product;
respectively calculating a reliability point estimation value, a reliability lower limit and a failure rate for the spiral flow and the positive pressure variable according to the modes of the step a and the step b; and (4) according to a series model with independent spiral flow and positive pressure variable degradation, integrating the calculation results to obtain a total reliability point estimation value, a total failure rate and a total service life reliability lower limit of the product.
3. An on-orbit telemetry parameter-based reliability evaluation device for a space traveling wave tube amplifier is characterized by comprising the following components:
the model building module is used for building a degradation model by utilizing on-orbit data, namely the spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier, which can reflect the on-orbit performance state of the traveling wave tube amplifier;
the estimation module is used for predicting the service life data of the end stage of the service life of the product by utilizing the degradation model so as to estimate the reliability of the product;
the model building module comprises:
the acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier and sending the spiral flow and positive voltage variation to the model fitting submodule; the acquisition submodule acquires a spiral flow represented by a voltage value from on-track telemetry data, and multiplies the spiral flow by a coefficient
Converting the current value into a current value; acquiring the positive pressure from the on-orbit telemetry data, and taking the initial positive pressure remote measurement value as the basis, wherein the positive pressure difference value between the subsequent moment and the initial telemetry is the positive pressure variation;
the model fitting submodule is used for performing trend fitting by using the obtained spiral flow and positive voltage variation of the traveling wave tube amplifier to obtain a degradation model of the spiral flow and the positive voltage variation;
the model parameter determination submodule is used for estimating parameters of the degradation model by a least square method according to the on-orbit data;
the estimation module includes:
the pseudo life data acquisition submodule is used for acquiring a degradation model and parameters thereof according to the model construction module, calculating pseudo life data of the product spiral flow and the positive pressure variable at the end of the life and sending the pseudo life data to the estimation submodule;
the estimation submodule is used for calculating the mean value and the standard deviation of the spiral flow and the positive pressure variable of the product at the end of the service life by using the pseudo life data, assuming that the reliability of the product obeys normal distribution, and estimating the reliability of the product according to the failure threshold of the product;
the model fitting submodule carries out trend fitting to obtain degradation models of the spiral flow and the positive pressure variable, and the degradation models are respectively as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,I hi is shown asiThe spiral flow of the table product is realized,V Ai is shown asiThe variation of the positive pressure of the product,tthe indication is a time of day that,a i 、b i 、c i 、d i model parameters of the two degradation models to be determined are respectively.
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