CN111080166A - Social unit fire risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a social unit fire risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation, which comprises the steps of dividing the grades of social units, establishing a ladder summary structure, establishing a fire risk factor level, establishing a fire safety risk assessment model, adjusting parameters and/or weight in the fire safety risk assessment model according to the current actual condition, taking the social units with fire events as samples, assessing the feasibility of the model, and putting into fire risk assessment if the model is feasible. According to the method, the fire safety risk assessment model is subjected to standardization and grading system treatment, the assessment terms are refined, the accuracy of subjective results of assessment is improved, the results are summarized based on the grading system, and objective results of assessment are more accurate; according to the invention, a fire risk factor hierarchical structure is established, risk levels are divided, information sources are divided and standardized, evaluation content standards are quantized, the evaluation result is more scientific and reliable, the fire risk evaluation mode is more universal, the accuracy is high, and the tracing management is convenient.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of data processing systems or methods specially suitable for administrative, commercial, financial, management, supervision or prediction purposes, in particular to a social unit fire risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation.
Background
The fire safety risk assessment refers to that a scientific and reasonable hazard identification and hazard evaluation method is applied, and a risk control measure is formulated by strictly controlling accidental harmful factors appearing in main fire fighting work, so that the aims of eliminating hazards and avoiding fire alarms and fires caused by insufficient measures and the like are fulfilled, and the serious accidents of leakage, ignition and the like of toxic and harmful, flammable and explosive media are avoided.
Furthermore, according to the evaluation and identification results, preventive control measures with strong pertinence and operability can be taken regularly and timely respectively, the fire fighting work is standardized, the harm to personal safety and equipment safety is eliminated or avoided, and the operation risk of the fire fighting work is reduced.
In the prior art, fire safety risk assessment directly gives a fire risk assessment result according to collected fire related data, thinning processing is not performed, classification is not performed regularly, and relatively more careless omission probably occurs in the interpretation process of the data, and potential safety hazards are buried instead.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention solves the problems that in the prior art, a simple fire risk assessment model is poor in universality, empirical risk assessment is carried out by considering more relevant factors of a current scene, data is known in a one-sided manner, follow-up processing is not appropriate, and potential safety hazards are buried, and provides an optimized social unit fire protection risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation.
The invention adopts the technical scheme that a social unit fire protection risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation comprises the following steps:
step 1: dividing social unit grades;
step 2: constructing a fire risk factor hierarchy;
and step 3: establishing a fire safety risk assessment model based on the step 1 and the step 2;
and 4, step 4: adjusting parameters and/or weights in the fire safety risk assessment model;
and 5: taking a plurality of social units with fire-fighting events as samples, and evaluating the feasibility of the model; and if the situation is feasible, putting into fire-fighting risk assessment, and otherwise, returning to the step 4.
Preferably, in the step 1, the social units include enterprise units, business units and other units; and the social units are clustered by three-level administrative districts, clustered to the second-level administrative district by the three-level administrative district, and clustered to the first-level administrative district by the second-level administrative district.
Preferably, in the step 2, the fire risk factor includes a high-risk fire origin a, a building fire protection index b, a fire early warning integrity c, a fire protection configuration d of the current social unit, and a fire association index e of any social unit.
Preferably, the high-risk ignition source a comprises a storage of inflammable and explosive articles a1Line aging degree a2And a high power electrical quantity a3；
If inflammable and explosive materials exist, a is 0, otherwise, a is1Is 20;
if there is a visible arc, then a2Is 0, otherwise, a2∈(0,50]；
If there are three inodes, then a3Is 0, otherwise, a3∈(0,30]；
A = a except for the presence of inflammable and explosive materials1+a2+a3。
Preferably, the building fire-proof index b comprises whether the building fire-proof material is used or not1And the fire passing possibility index b of the adjacent buildings2Whether the escape passage is provided with b3Reasonability of escape passage setting b4Rationality of fire rescue system b5；
If the building does not adopt fire-proof materials, b is 0, otherwise, b is1Is 20;
if the floor distance of the adjacent buildings is less than 6 m, b2Is 0, otherwise, b2∈(0,20]；
If the escape passage is not set, b is 0, otherwise, b is 03Is 20;
if the escape passage is not unblocked, b4Is 0, otherwise, b4∈(0,20]；
If there is no ground fire passage and/or corridor fire passage, b5Is 0, otherwise b5∈(0,20]；
B = b except that the building does not adopt fire-proof material and/or the escape passage is not provided1+b2+b3+b4+b5。
Preferably, the fire early warning sophistication c includes whether a fire early warning device c is set1And the setting rationality of the fire-fighting early warning equipment c2；
If the fire-fighting early warning equipment is not arranged, c is 0, otherwise, c is1Is 50;
the fire-fighting early warning equipment is set to be reasonable and comprises a position factor, a maintenance factor and c2∈(0,50]；
C = c except no fire-fighting early warning equipment1+c2。
Preferably, the fire fighting configuration d of the current social unit includes whether a fire extinguishing apparatus d is set1Rationality of distribution of fire extinguishing systems d2And the influence value d is given out in fire control3(ii) a The fire extinguishing equipment comprises spraying equipment and a fire extinguisher;
if no fire extinguishing equipment is arranged, d is 0, otherwise, d1=30；d2∈(0,40]；
The fire-fighting dispatch influence value comprises the nearest fire-fighting unit distance, traffic factors, fire-fighting water source distance, d3∈(0,30]；
D = d unless no fire-extinguishing equipment is provided1+d2+d3。
Preferably, the fire correlation index e includes a fire occurrence rate e of a classification region1And the rate of fire occurrence e of the same kind of social units2Smoking person proportion e3；
The fire occurrence rate of the classification region comprises an environmental factor, a personnel density factor, e1∈(0,40]，e1Based on population density and seasonal settings; e.g. of the type2∈(0,20]；e3∈(0,40]；
e=e1+e2+e3。
Preferably, in step 3, based on steps 1 and 2, the fire safety risk assessment model takes the endmost level of the levels of the social units as a unit, and the fire safety risk score of any social unit is W, W = W1a+w2b+w3c+w4d+w5e, wherein w1+w2+w3+w4+w5=1, if any of W is 0, set to high risk; otherwise, w1≥w2≥w3＞w4＞w5。
Preferably, the fire safety risk assessment model is gradually overlapped from the most terminal level in the social unit levels, and is summarized in a grading manner.
The invention relates to an optimized social unit fire risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation, which comprises the steps of dividing the grades of social units, establishing a step summary structure, establishing a fire risk factor level, establishing a fire safety risk assessment model based on the fire safety risk factor level, adjusting parameters and/or weights in the fire safety risk assessment model according to the current actual situation, taking a plurality of social units with fire fighting events as samples, assessing the feasibility of the model, and putting the samples into fire risk assessment on the premise of feasibility.
According to the method, the fire safety risk assessment model is subjected to standardization and grading system treatment, on one hand, assessment terms are refined, the accuracy of subjective results of assessment is improved, on the other hand, the results are summarized based on the grading system, and objective results of assessment are more accurate; according to the invention, a fire risk factor hierarchical structure is established, risk levels are divided, information sources are divided and standardized, the evaluated contents are subjected to standard quantification, and then evaluation modeling is carried out, so that the evaluation result is more scientific and reliable, and the fire risk evaluation mode has universality and accuracy and is convenient for tracing management.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is described in further detail with reference to the following examples, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto.
The invention relates to a social unit fire protection risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation, which comprises the following steps.
Step 1: and (4) dividing social unit levels.
In the step 1, the social units comprise enterprise units, public institution units and other units; and the social units are clustered by three-level administrative districts, clustered to the second-level administrative district by the three-level administrative district, and clustered to the first-level administrative district by the second-level administrative district.
In the invention, the fire control management of an enterprise unit, an enterprise unit and other units is obviously different, for example, the enterprise unit comprises a main unit and a branch mechanism, and the main body of a social unit is relatively independent, so that the three types of units can be distinguished.
In the invention, as the fire fighting work is carried out by the fire fighting unit corresponding to the belonged plot, the social units are clustered by three-level administrative divisions and are summarized step by step to construct a hierarchical social unit matrix.
Step 2: and constructing a fire risk factor hierarchy.
In the step 2, the fire risk factors include a high-risk ignition source a, a building fire prevention index b, a fire early warning perfection c, a fire fighting configuration d and a fire association index e of any social unit.
The high-risk ignition source a comprises a flammable and explosive article storage part a1Line aging degree a2And a high power electrical quantity a3；
If inflammable and explosive materials exist, a is 0, otherwise, a is1Is 20;
if there is a visible arc, then a2Is 0, otherwise, a2∈(0,50]；
If there are three inodes, then a3Is 0, otherwise, a3∈(0,30]；
A = a except for the presence of inflammable and explosive materials1+a2+a3。
The building fire-proof index b comprises whether the building fire-proof material is used or not1And the fire passing possibility index b of the adjacent buildings2Whether the escape passage is provided with b3Reasonability of escape passage setting b4Rationality of fire rescue system b5；
If the building does not adopt fire-proof materials, b is 0, otherwise, b is1Is 20;
if the floor distance of the adjacent buildings is less than 6 m, b2Is 0, otherwise, b2∈(0,20]；
If the escape passage is not set, b is 0, otherwise, b is 03Is 20;
if the escape passage is not unblocked, b4Is 0, otherwise, b4∈(0,20]；
If there is no ground fire passage and/or corridor fire passage, b5Is 0, otherwise b5∈(0,20]；
B = b except that the building does not adopt fire-proof material and/or the escape passage is not provided1+b2+b3+b4+b5。
The fire early warning perfection c comprises whether a fire early warning device c is arranged1And the setting rationality of the fire-fighting early warning equipment c2；
If the fire-fighting early warning equipment is not arranged, c is 0, otherwise, c is1Is 50;
the fire-fighting early warning equipment is set to be reasonable and comprises a position factor, a maintenance factor and c2∈(0,50]；
C = c except no fire-fighting early warning equipment1+c2。
The fire fighting configuration d of the current social unit includes whether a fire extinguishing apparatus d is set1Rationality of distribution of fire extinguishing systems d2And the influence value d is given out in fire control3(ii) a The fire extinguishing equipment comprises spraying equipment and a fire extinguisher;
if no fire extinguishing equipment is arranged, d is 0, otherwise, d1=30；d2∈(0,40]；
The fire-fighting dispatch influence value comprises the nearest fire-fighting unit distance, traffic factors, fire-fighting water source distance, d3∈(0,30]；
D = d unless no fire-extinguishing equipment is provided1+d2+d3。
The fire correlation index e comprises the fire occurrence rate e of the classification region1And the rate of fire occurrence e of the same kind of social units2Smoking person proportion e3；
The fire occurrence rate of the classification region comprises an environmental factor, a personnel density factor, e1∈(0,40]，e1Based on population density and seasonal settings; e.g. of the type2∈(0,20]；e3∈(0,40]；
e=e1+e2+e3。
In the invention, punishment lines are set in a high-risk ignition source a, a building fire prevention index b, a fire early warning perfection c, a fire fighting configuration d of a current social unit and a fire association index e; the penalty line is that once the penalty condition is met, the current index is directly set to 0, namely, the score is not obtained, and the score is used as a high-risk mark.
In the invention, except fractional terms involved in the penalty line, the rest can be evaluated by referring to the actual condition of the area where the current social unit is located, and the scoring standard floating value among different social units is not more than 10% of the maximum score of the current term.
In the invention, the distribution rationality d of the fire extinguishing equipment is adopted2For example, if two identical buildings have the same number of fire extinguishing systems installed therein, the location of the fire extinguishing systems in one building forming a barrier and the fire extinguishing systems in the other building being correctly installed, the latter d2The value should obviously be higher.
In the present invention, the fire occurrence rate e in the classified area is used1E.g. arid areas, areas with a high density of people1The value should obviously be higher.
And step 3: and establishing a fire safety risk assessment model based on the step 1 and the step 2.
In the step 3, based on the step 1 and the step2, the fire safety risk assessment model takes the most terminal level in the social unit levels as a unit, and the fire safety risk score of any social unit is W, W = W1a+w2b+w3c+w4d+w5e, wherein w1+w2+w3+w4+w5=1, if any of W is 0, set to high risk; otherwise, w1≥w2≥w3＞w4＞w5。
The fire safety risk assessment model is gradually superposed from the most terminal level in the social unit level, and is summarized in a grading way.
And 4, step 4: adjusting parameters and/or weights in the fire safety risk assessment model.
In the present invention, w1、w2、w3、w4、w5For the weight value, the weight value assignment here can be adjusted according to different regional and personnel characteristics, but should follow w1≥w2≥w3＞w4＞w5The limit of (2).
In the invention, the fire safety risk score W is accumulated based on the three-level administrative divisions, and the total fire safety risk score of the current region is obtained.
And 5: taking a plurality of social units with fire-fighting events as samples, and evaluating the feasibility of the model; and if the situation is feasible, putting into fire-fighting risk assessment, and otherwise, returning to the step 4.
In the invention, the actual scoring result of the model is checked, when the actual scoring result does not meet the actual condition, the weight is firstly adjusted, and if the actual scoring result cannot meet the requirement, the scoring standard of any sub-index in the 5 indexes can be adjusted until the actual scoring result is fitted.
The method comprises the steps of dividing the grades of social units, establishing a ladder summary structure, establishing a fire risk factor hierarchy, establishing a fire safety risk assessment model based on the hierarchy, adjusting parameters and/or weights in the fire safety risk assessment model according to the current actual situation, taking a plurality of social units with fire events as samples, assessing the feasibility of the model, and putting the samples into fire risk assessment on the premise of feasibility.
According to the method, the fire safety risk assessment model is subjected to standardization and grading system treatment, on one hand, assessment terms are refined, the accuracy of subjective results of assessment is improved, on the other hand, the results are summarized based on the grading system, and objective results of assessment are more accurate; according to the invention, a fire risk factor hierarchical structure is established, risk levels are divided, information sources are divided and standardized, the evaluated contents are subjected to standard quantification, and then evaluation modeling is carried out, so that the evaluation result is more scientific and reliable, and the fire risk evaluation mode has universality and accuracy and is convenient for tracing management.
Claims (10)
1. A social unit fire risk assessment method based on multi-level statistical evaluation is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: dividing social unit grades;
step 2: constructing a fire risk factor hierarchy;
and step 3: establishing a fire safety risk assessment model based on the step 1 and the step 2;
and 4, step 4: adjusting parameters and/or weights in the fire safety risk assessment model;
and 5: taking a plurality of social units with fire-fighting events as samples, and evaluating the feasibility of the model; and if the situation is feasible, putting into fire-fighting risk assessment, and otherwise, returning to the step 4.
2. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in the step 1, the social units comprise enterprise units, public institution units and other units; and the social units are clustered by three-level administrative districts, clustered to the second-level administrative district by the three-level administrative district, and clustered to the first-level administrative district by the second-level administrative district.
3. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in the step 2, the fire risk factors include a high-risk ignition source a, a building fire prevention index b, a fire early warning perfection c, a fire fighting configuration d and a fire association index e of any social unit.
4. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein: the high-risk ignition source a comprises a flammable and explosive article storage part a1Line aging degree a2And a high power electrical quantity a3；
If inflammable and explosive materials exist, a is 0, otherwise, a is1Is 20;
if there is a visible arc, then a2Is 0, otherwise, a2∈(0,50]；
If there are three inodes, then a3Is 0, otherwise, a3∈(0,30]；
A = a except for the presence of inflammable and explosive materials1+a2+a3。
5. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein: the building fire-proof index b comprises whether the building fire-proof material is used or not1And the fire passing possibility index b of the adjacent buildings2Whether the escape passage is provided with b3Reasonability of escape passage setting b4Rationality of fire rescue system b5；
If the building does not adopt fire-proof materials, b is 0, otherwise, b is1Is 20;
if the floor distance of the adjacent buildings is less than 6 m, b2Is 0, otherwise, b2∈(0,20]；
If the escape passage is not set, b is 0, otherwise, b is 03Is 20;
if the escape passage is not unblocked, b4Is 0, otherwise, b4∈(0,20]；
If there is no ground fire passage and/or corridor fire passage, b5Is 0, otherwise b5∈(0,20]；
B = b except that the building does not adopt fire-proof material and/or the escape passage is not provided1+b2+b3+b4+b5。
6. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein: the fire early warning perfection c comprises whether a fire early warning device c is arranged1And the setting rationality of the fire-fighting early warning equipment c2；
If the fire-fighting early warning equipment is not arranged, c is 0, otherwise, c is1Is 50;
the fire-fighting early warning equipment is set to be reasonable and comprises a position factor, a maintenance factor and c2∈(0,50]；
C = c except no fire-fighting early warning equipment1+c2。
7. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein: the fire fighting configuration d of the current social unit includes whether a fire extinguishing apparatus d is set1Rationality of distribution of fire extinguishing systems d2And the influence value d is given out in fire control3(ii) a The fire extinguishing equipment comprises spraying equipment and a fire extinguisher;
if no fire extinguishing equipment is arranged, d is 0, otherwise, d1=30；d2∈(0,40]；
The fire-fighting dispatch influence value comprises the nearest fire-fighting unit distance, traffic factors, fire-fighting water source distance, d3∈(0,30]；
D = d unless no fire-extinguishing equipment is provided1+d2+d3。
8. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein: the fire correlation index e comprises the fire occurrence rate e of the classification region1And the rate of fire occurrence e of the same kind of social units2Smoking person proportion e3；
The above-mentionedThe fire occurrence rate of the classification region comprises an environmental factor, a personnel density factor, e1∈(0,40]，e1Based on population density and seasonal settings; e.g. of the type2∈(0,20]；e3∈(0,40]；
e=e1+e2+e3。
9. The method for assessing the fire-fighting risk of social units based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein: in the step 3, based on the steps 1 and 2, the fire safety risk assessment model takes the endmost level in the social unit levels as a unit, and the fire safety risk score of any social unit is W, W = W1a+w2b+w3c+w4d+w5e, wherein w1+w2+w3+w4+w5=1, if any of W is 0, set to high risk; otherwise, w1≥w2≥w3＞w4＞w5。
10. The method for assessing the fire risk of a social unit based on multi-level statistical evaluation as claimed in claim 9, wherein: the fire safety risk assessment model is gradually superposed from the most terminal level in the social unit level, and is summarized in a grading way.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN115271659A (en) * | 2022-07-28 | 2022-11-01 | 南京戴尔塔智能制造研究院有限公司 | Urban fire hazard early warning method and system based on video analysis |
| CN115271659B (en) * | 2022-07-28 | 2024-02-02 | 南京戴尔塔智能制造研究院有限公司 | Urban fire hazard early warning method and system based on video analysis |
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Application publication date: 20200428 |