CN110555602A - Method and system for ten-day runoff distribution under condition of runoff data shortage - Google Patents
Method and system for ten-day runoff distribution under condition of runoff data shortage Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a ten-day runoff distribution method and a ten-day runoff distribution system under the condition of runoff data shortage, belonging to the field of hydrological research in runoff data shortage or data-free areas, wherein the method comprises the following steps: carrying out runoff division with ten days as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model; judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, if so, finishing the division; if not, the division is continued. The method can fully utilize the existing monthly runoff (annual runoff data) data to supplement the runoff data of smaller time units, effectively reduces the inherent error of the existing distribution method, does not need parameter limitation, enables the distribution result to be more fit with the actual situation, can be applied to the data-free hydrology research field to solve the problem of related runoff simulation distribution, is simple and efficient, is convenient to implement, and has wide application value.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of hydrological research in areas with or without runoff data shortage, and particularly relates to a ten-day runoff distribution method and system under the condition of runoff data shortage.
background
Hydrological research in areas without data or data shortage is one of the hot spots and difficult problems of modern international hydrological water resource research, and as far as China is concerned, many reservoirs and hydropower stations have no systematic runoff data record at the beginning of construction, and most runoff data take months as the minimum unit. However, in practical engineering application or scientific research, more detailed data support is often required, such as ten days and day data, and at this time, the monthly runoff data needs to be scientifically and reasonably divided.
However, the current dividing method is relatively rough, the common method is to divide the monthly runoff into every ten days or every day (equal divisions), although the method is simple, the method has obvious defects, the formation of the surface runoff is influenced by various factors such as climate, land utilization type and the like, so the time sequence of the runoff and the relation of rainfall-runoff generally have obvious non-stationarity, and the equal division causes the runoff value jump between ten days and ten days (day and day) to be often overlarge or zero, which is contrary to the reality.
of course, many random numbers generated by random simulation methods are used to replace actual runoff data, but the simulation of statistical characteristics and the establishment of random models (including order determination, parameter estimation and the like) are involved, a series of factors such as trend terms, skip terms, period terms, random terms and the like need to be considered, the steps are relatively complex, the calculation burden is increased, and the existing runoff data is not fully utilized.
Generally speaking, the existing runoff distribution method has the problem that the simulation data is inconsistent with the actual situation due to obvious errors in distributing the ten-day runoff.
Disclosure of Invention
aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method and a system for allocating the ten-day runoff under the condition of runoff data shortage, and aims to solve the problem that the simulation data is inconsistent with the actual situation due to obvious errors when the ten-day runoff is allocated by adopting the conventional method.
in order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a ten-day runoff allocation method under a condition of runoff data shortage, including:
(1) Carrying out runoff division with ten days as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model;
(2) judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, if so, finishing the division; if not, returning to execute the step (1).
Further, the step (1) is specifically to perform the runoff division with ten days as a unit on the known runoff data by adopting a large-scale linear programming solver according to the constructed quadratic programming model.
Further, the quadratic programming model is as follows:
wherein i represents the number of runoff in ten days, N represents the number of divided ten days in the runoff sequence, and QiIs the ten-day runoff of the time period i.
Further, the quadratic programming model satisfies the following constraint conditions:
and (3) total balance constraint: q3j+Q3j+1+Q3j+2＝3qjwherein j represents a monthly runoff number, qjThe monthly runoff for time period j; non-negative constraints: qi≥0。
Further, the evaluation parameters are:
Wherein Cvm is a monthly runoff sequence deviation coefficient, Cvx is a runoff sequence deviation coefficient after the optimized allocation, and K is an evaluation parameter, which reflects the variation of the runoff sequence and the monthly runoff sequence deviation parameter.
in another aspect, the present invention provides a ten-day runoff distribution system under the condition of runoff data shortage, including:
The ten-day runoff allocation module is used for carrying out runoff division with ten-day as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model;
The distribution result evaluation module is used for judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, and if so, the division is finished; if not, continuing to adopt the ten-day runoff allocation module to carry out ten-day runoff allocation.
Further, the ten-day runoff allocation module performs runoff division on known runoff data by taking ten days as a unit by adopting a large-scale linear programming solver according to the constructed quadratic programming model.
further, the quadratic programming model is as follows:
wherein i represents the number of runoff in ten days, N represents the number of divided ten days in the runoff sequence, and Qiis the ten-day runoff of the time period i.
Further, the quadratic programming model satisfies the following constraint conditions:
And (3) total balance constraint: q3j+Q3j+1+Q3j+2＝3qjwherein j represents a monthly runoff number, qjThe monthly runoff for time period j; non-negative constraints: qi≥0。
Further, the evaluation parameters are:
wherein Cvm is a monthly runoff sequence deviation coefficient, Cvx is a runoff sequence deviation coefficient after the optimized allocation, and K is an evaluation parameter, which reflects the variation of the runoff sequence and the monthly runoff sequence deviation parameter.
Through the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) Compared with the conventional annual ten-day runoff distribution method without data, the method disclosed by the invention can fully utilize the conventional monthly runoff data (annual runoff data) data to supplement the runoff data of smaller time units, so that the inherent error of the conventional distribution method is effectively reduced, the parameter limitation is not required, and the distribution result is more suitable for the actual situation.
(2) according to the method, the large-scale linear programming solver is called, so that the global optimal solution of the quadratic programming model can be quickly and accurately solved, the optimal allocation of the annual flow every ten days is realized, and the method is simple, efficient, convenient to implement and wide in application value.
drawings
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a ten-day runoff allocation method under a condition of runoff data shortage according to the present invention;
FIG. 2(a) is a schematic diagram of a ten-day traffic sequence allocation obtained by applying the method of the present invention;
Fig. 2(b) is a schematic diagram of a ten-day traffic sequence allocation obtained by applying the conventional allocation method.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, in an aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a ten-day runoff allocation method in a runoff data shortage situation, including:
(1) and carrying out runoff division with ten days as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model.
specifically, according to known monthly runoff data or part of known ten-day runoff data, a mathematical programming model is established by taking the minimum sum of squares of fluctuation values of adjacent ten-day runoff in a ten-day runoff sequence as a target, and because a linear programming solver gurobi adopts an advanced optimization technology, the advantages of a multi-core processor are fully utilized, efficient and stable solution is realized, and a convenient and light interface is provided for direct calling, therefore, the invention adopts a large-scale linear programming solver gurobi to perform runoff division on the known runoff data by taking ten-day as a unit, so that the mathematical programming model is adapted to the large-scale linear programming solver to obtain an optimal solution, and is reconstructed into a strict quadratic programming model:Wherein i represents the number of runoff in ten days, N represents the number of divided ten days in the runoff sequence, and QiIs the ten-day runoff of the time period i. The quadratic programming model in the invention meets the following constraint conditions: and (3) total balance constraint: q3j+Q3j+1+Q3j+2＝3qjwherein j represents a monthly runoff number, qjThe monthly runoff for time period j; non-negative constraints: qi≥0。
(2) Judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, if so, finishing the division; if not, returning to execute the step (1).
Specifically, the ten-day runoff evaluation parameters obtained by the allocation method are as follows:
Wherein Cvm is a month runoff sequence deviation coefficient, Cvx is an optimized post-allocation ten-day runoff sequence deviation coefficient, K is an evaluation parameter, which reflects the variation of the ten-day runoff sequence and the month runoff sequence deviation parameter, and the smaller the value of K, the more similar the post-allocation ten-day runoff sequence and the previous month runoff sequence, and according to the previous allocation experience, it is generally considered that the similarity between the ten-day runoff sequence allocation and the month runoff meets the requirement when K is less than 0.01.
In order to verify the effectiveness of the method, a runoff sequence of a certain year of a hydrological station in a certain data shortage area is selected for distribution, fig. 2(a) and fig. 2(b) are distribution sequences generated by the distribution method and the existing distribution method respectively, and it can be seen that the ten-day runoff sequence of fig. 2(a) has more stable runoff fluctuation and more practical fluctuation trend compared with fig. 2(b), wherein the K value of fig. 2(a) is 0.06%, the K value of fig. 2(b) is 2.90%, and the similarity of the ten-day runoff sequence distribution is improved by nearly two orders of magnitude compared with that of the ten-day runoff sequence distribution, and meets the requirement of an evaluation standard, thereby further proving that the ten-day runoff sequence generated by the distribution method of the invention has more representative and practical significance.
Another aspect of the embodiments of the present invention provides a ten-day runoff distribution system under a condition of runoff data shortage, including: the ten-day runoff allocation module is used for carrying out runoff division with ten-day as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model; the distribution result evaluation module is used for judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, and if so, the division is finished; if not, continuing to adopt the ten-day runoff allocation module to carry out ten-day runoff allocation. The ten-day runoff allocation module of the invention adopts a large-scale linear programming solver to divide the runoff with the ten-day units for the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model. The quadratic programming model adopted is as follows:wherein i represents the number of runoff in ten days, N represents the number of divided ten days in the runoff sequence, and QiIs the ten-day runoff of the time period i. The quadratic programming model satisfies the following constraint conditions: and (3) total balance constraint: q3j+Q3j+1+Q3j+2＝3qjwherein j represents a monthly runoff number, qjThe monthly runoff for time period j; non-negative constraints: qiIs more than or equal to 0. The evaluation parameters used were:wherein Cvm is a monthly runoff sequence deviation coefficient, Cvx is a runoff sequence deviation coefficient after the optimized allocation, and K is an evaluation parameter, which reflects the variation of the runoff sequence and the monthly runoff sequence deviation parameter.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the invention, and that any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A ten-day runoff allocation method under the condition of runoff data shortage is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Carrying out runoff division with ten days as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model;
(2) Judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, if so, finishing the division; if not, returning to execute the step (1).
2. The method for ten-day runoff distribution under the condition of runoff data shortage according to claim 1, wherein the step (1) is specifically to perform runoff division in ten-day units on the known runoff data by adopting a large-scale linear programming solver according to the constructed quadratic programming model.
3. the method for ten-day runoff distribution under the condition of runoff data shortage according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the quadratic programming model is as follows:
Wherein i represents the number of runoff in ten days, N represents the number of divided ten days in the runoff sequence, and Qiis the ten-day runoff of the time period i.
4. The method for ten-day runoff distribution under the condition of runoff data shortage according to claim 3, wherein the quadratic programming model meets the following constraint conditions:
And (3) total balance constraint: q3j+Q3j+1+Q3j+2＝3qjWherein j represents a monthly runoff number, qjThe monthly runoff for time period j; non-negative constraints: qi≥0。
5. The method for ten-day runoff distribution in the case of runoff data shortage according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the evaluation parameters are:
Wherein Cvm is a monthly runoff sequence deviation coefficient, Cvx is a runoff sequence deviation coefficient after the optimized allocation, and K is an evaluation parameter, which reflects the variation of the runoff sequence and the monthly runoff sequence deviation parameter.
6. A ten day runoff distribution system under the condition of runoff data shortage, which is characterized by comprising:
The ten-day runoff allocation module is used for carrying out runoff division with ten-day as a unit on the known runoff data according to the constructed quadratic programming model;
The distribution result evaluation module is used for judging whether the ten-day runoff obtained by the division reaches a set standard or not according to the evaluation parameters, and if so, the division is finished; if not, continuing to adopt the ten-day runoff allocation module to carry out ten-day runoff allocation.
7. The system according to claim 6, wherein the ten-day runoff distribution module performs runoff division in ten-day units on the known runoff data by using a large-scale linear programming solver according to the constructed quadratic programming model.
8. The system according to claim 6 or 7, wherein the quadratic programming model is:
Wherein i represents the number of runoff in ten days, N represents the number of divided ten days in the runoff sequence, and QiIs the ten-day runoff of the time period i.
9. the system according to claim 8, wherein the quadratic programming model satisfies the following constraints:
And (3) total balance constraint: q3j+Q3j+1+Q3j+2＝3qjwherein j represents a monthly runoff number, qjThe monthly runoff for time period j; non-negative constraints: qi≥0。
10. A ten day runoff distribution system according to any one of claims 1 to 9 wherein the evaluation parameters are:
Wherein Cvm is a monthly runoff sequence deviation coefficient, Cvx is a runoff sequence deviation coefficient after the optimized allocation, and K is an evaluation parameter, which reflects the variation of the runoff sequence and the monthly runoff sequence deviation parameter.
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Effective date of registration: 20230506 Address after: No.73 Tuodong Road, Guandu District, Kunming, Yunnan 650011 Patentee after: KUNMING ELECTRIC POWER TRANSACTION CENTER CO.,LTD. Address before: No. 73 Tuodong Road, Panlong District, Kunming City, Yunnan Province, 650011 Patentee before: KUNMING ELECTRIC POWER TRANSACTION CENTER CO.,LTD. Patentee before: HUAZHONG University OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY |