CN110458314B - Load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction - Google Patents
Load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and particularly relates to a load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead power flow prediction, which is a 110kV transformer substation load data decomposition method for day-ahead power flow prediction. Before the end of each day, the total active power prediction data of each 220kV transformer substation main transformer on the second day is read in, and based on the current power grid model and the running state, the total active power load prediction data of the 220kV main transformer is decomposed to loads of lower 110kV and 35kV transformer substations carried by the main transformer, and the reactive power of each load is calculated. The method and the system use the decomposition calculation result for daily trend forecast of the power grid, provide basic data for daily safety check and daily reactive voltage optimization of the power grid, and improve the stability and voltage quality of the power grid.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and particularly relates to a load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead power flow prediction, in particular to a 110kV transformer substation load data decomposition method for day-ahead power flow prediction.
Background
In the operation of the power system, in order to facilitate the arrangement of the power grid operation mode in advance, personnel in the scheduling mode need to carry out the programming of the power grid operation scheme on the upcoming open day in advance every day, namely, the programming of the operation plan before the day. The day-ahead operation plan is an important basis for power grid dispatching, and the reasonable day-ahead dispatching operation plan relates to future safe and economic operation of the system. With the expansion of the power grid scale and the complicating of the operation mode, the prior day-ahead plan safety check based on the direct current power flow cannot meet the actual demands, and the day-ahead plan is required to be comprehensively and safely checked in the aspects of static safety, dynamic stability, transient stability and the like, so that reasonable alternating current power flow meeting the day-ahead plan needs to be generated, and the work of day-ahead power flow forecasting needs to be completed. The day-ahead tide forecast is to generate day-ahead alternating current tide solutions according to the day-ahead power plant active power generation plan, the day-ahead maintenance plan and the day-ahead bus load forecast data, and the day-ahead power plant power generation plan and the bus load forecast data are 96-point data at 15-minute intervals, so that the day-ahead tide forecast also generates 96 corresponding alternating current tide solutions. The traditional method is that the generator terminal voltage is given by experience on the basis of the direct current power flow, then alternating current power flow calculation is carried out, the convergence is poor, the result is often unreasonable, and the correctness of safety check is affected.
Lin Yi, sun Hong in "automatic generation technology of planned power flow in daily planned safety check" (electric power system Automation, 10 nd month, 36 th volume, 20 th period, pp.68-73) a new method for forecasting power flow in daily planned preparation is provided, which can calculate the planned power flow of the next day of the power grid and evaluate the running state and safety condition of the power grid of the next day through the planned power flow. The planning tide method decomposes the original problem into an active adjustment sub-problem and a reactive voltage distribution sub-problem to be solved step by step. The method has the advantages that the inconsistent among various planning data is coordinated through solving the active adjustment optimization sub-problem, the reasonable generator terminal voltage is determined through solving the reactive voltage distribution sub-problem, and the convergence problem caused by using the typical terminal voltage is avoided. The optimization sub-problem is solved by adopting a modern interior point method based on a prediction-correction step, and the method has good convergence. The method is applied to some domestic regional power grid dispatching centers and provincial power grid dispatching centers at present.
The method mainly solves the active and reactive power of the generator in the power flow forecast, wherein the active and reactive power value on the load bus in the power flow forecast is given, and the data is given from the bus load forecast system. In the actual application process of the provincial power grid dispatching center, the bus load prediction data mainly gives out the total active load prediction data of the 220kV main transformer. With the intensive and flattened change of power grid dispatching operation management in recent years, a lower-level load 110kV power grid model and a lower-level load 35kV power grid model carried by a 220kV bus are gradually increased in a power-saving dispatching power grid model, and in trend forecasting, in order to give a complete alternating current trend solution, the total active load forecasting data of the 220kV main transformer are required to be decomposed into the lower-level power grid load carried by the 220kV main transformer. The present invention proposes a method for solving this problem.
The invention relates to a 220kV-110kV-35kV power grid operation area, which is operated in a radiation mode for power grids below 330kV and 220kV in the power grid dispatching operation of China at present, namely, lower 110kV/35kV substations carried by each 330kV/220kV substation form independent areas, are mutually connected in the areas, and different lower areas carried by 330kV and 220kV are not electrically connected. A typical schematic of such an area is shown in the attached figure 3.
The invention relates to a quasi-steady-state sensitivity of power grid operation, and the physical meaning of active load sensitivity is that after an injection unit active power is added on a certain bus, the active power of each main transformer in the power grid is changed. Sun Hong, zhang Baming and Xiang Niande propose a quasi-steady state sensitivity method in a quasi-steady state sensitivity analysis method (Chinese motor engineering journal, 1999, 4. V19N4, pp.9-13), and the quasi-steady state sensitivity method considers the physical response of a power system in a quasi-steady state, considers the total change between the new steady state and the old steady state before and after the system control, and effectively improves the accuracy of sensitivity analysis, unlike a conventional static sensitivity analysis method. The method is based on a PQ decoupling model of the power system, and when the generator is installed with an Automatic Voltage Regulator (AVR), the generator node can be considered as a PV node; when the generator is equipped with automatic reactive power regulation (AQR) or Automatic Power Factor Regulation (APFR), the generator node is considered to be the PQ node as is the normal load node. The static load voltage characteristic is considered as a primary or secondary curve of the node voltage. The thus established tidal current model naturally takes into account these quasi-steady-state physical responses, so that the sensitivity calculated on the basis of the tidal current model is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity. The above-described quasi-steady state sensitivity method is employed in the calculations herein.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead trend prediction. According to the invention, the total active prediction data of the 220kV transformer substation main transformer is adopted in the provincial power grid, the active prediction data of the loads in the lower 110kV and 35kV transformer substations connected with each main transformer are calculated and decomposed based on the power grid operation mode and the topological structure, and the corresponding reactive prediction data are calculated. The result of the decomposition calculation is used for forecasting the daily front tide of the power grid, so that the purposes of providing basic data for daily front safety check and daily front reactive voltage optimization of the power grid and improving the stability and voltage quality of the power grid are achieved.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is achieved by the following technical scheme:
before the end of each day, reading in the total active prediction data of all 220kV transformer substations in the second day, decomposing the total active load prediction data of the 220kV transformer substations to the loads of the lower 110kV and 35kV transformer substations carried by the main transformer based on the current power grid model and the running state, and further calculating the reactive power of each load; in the case of a 110kV substation, the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, presetting a time T for performing decomposition calculation every day, wherein the time T is usually 22 hours every day;
step 2, temporarily reading in a current power grid model and a power flow calculation result from a power grid energy management system EMS at a time T for daily calculation to form a region Z of a lower power grid carried by the 220kV transformer substation x x X is the number of a 220kV transformer substation in a power grid, and the initial value is 1;
step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x ；
Step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the main transformer;
step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35 kV;
and step 6. The x value is increased by 1, the step 2 is returned to continue to calculate the area carried by the next 220kV transformer substation until all 220kV transformer substations are calculated.
The Z is x The steps of the generation are as follows:
step 2.1, automatically generating a lower-level power grid area carried by the 220kV transformer substation x according to a power grid topological structure, wherein the generated area model is as follows:
wherein,,n total 220kV main transformers in the transformer substation; />The load in 110kV stations of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is m in total; />K loads in a 35kV station are taken as a lower-level power grid of the transformer substation;
step 2.2 reading zone Z x The corresponding active power and reactive power of each object at the maximum load moment of the daily power grid are as follows:
wherein,,the active value and the reactive value of the 220kV main transformer high-voltage side in the region are obtained; />The load active and reactive values in 110kV stations of the lower-level power grid; />The load active and reactive values in the lower power grid 35kV station are obtained; i is the number of devices.
Said step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the following steps:
step 3.1 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active sensitivity matrix S of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x The following are provided:
wherein,,sensitivity matrix (m x n) active to main transformer for 110kV load in region,/v>The method is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity of the active power of the jth main transformer high-voltage side winding in the ith 110kV load active power pair area in the area, and the physical meaning of the method is the change amount of the active power of the jth 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding after the active power of the ith 110kV load increasing unit; i is the load less than or equal to m, j is the main transformer less than or equal to n;
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,a sensitivity matrix (k x n dimensions) active on the main transformer for 35kV load in the region; matrix S x The total dimensions of (2) are: (m+k) n;
step 3.2 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active drawing factor matrix A of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x ，
Wherein,,the active drawing matrix (m x n dimension) for the main transformer for the 110kV load in the region comprises the following elements:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 110kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2);
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,the active drawing matrix (k x n dimension) for the 35kV load in the region is as follows:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 35kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (a).
Said step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the interior of the transformer is calculated, and the method comprises the following steps:
step 4.1 reading in the region Z at the t-th time of the second day from the grid energy management system EMS x Each of the (a)Active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer are recorded as:
wherein T is a time scale of the predicted data, the value range is 1-T, i.e. the predicted data of T moments is counted in the second day, the general condition is T=96, and the initial value of T is 1;the predicted data at the time t;
step 4.2 calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the areaThe following are provided:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofFor the calculated time zone Z of the second day, t x Active prediction data for medium 110kV and 35kV loads;
and 4.3t is increased by 1, and the next moment is continuously calculated in the step 3.1 until the calculation of the active prediction data at all moments of the second day is completed.
Said step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, comprising the following steps:
step 5.1, for the moment t of the second day, calculating 110kV and 35kV load reactive power prediction data in the area by adopting an equal power factor method and referring to the power factor of the load at the momentThe method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
wherein:
in formula (10)The load active and reactive values of the power grid at the moment of the maximum load of the day are given in the formula (2); i of formula 10 corresponds to m, k of formula 9, respectively;
and step 5.2t is increased by 1, and the method returns to step 4.1 to continue calculating the next moment until the reactive power prediction data at all moments of the second day are calculated.
The method comprises the steps of reading in the total active prediction data of all 220kV transformer substation main transformers on the second day, decomposing the total active load prediction data of the 220kV main transformers to loads of subordinate 110kV and 35kV transformer substations carried by the main transformers based on a current power grid model and an operation state, and further calculating the reactive power of all the loads; calculating with main transformer in 220kV station, wherein the partition comprises two 220kV main transformers Tr1, tr2, loads Ld1, ld2, ld3, ld4, ld5, ld6, ld7, ld8 and Ld9; the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, presetting a time T for performing decomposition calculation every day, wherein the time T is usually 22 hours every day;
step 2, temporarily reading in a current power grid model and a power flow calculation result from a power grid energy management system EMS at a time T for daily calculation to form a region Z of a lower power grid carried by the 220kV transformer substation x x X is the number of a 220kV transformer substation in a power grid, and the initial value is 1;
step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x ；
Step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the main transformer;
step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35 kV;
and step 6. The x value is increased by 1, the step 2 is returned to continue to calculate the area carried by the next 220kV transformer substation until all 220kV transformer substations are calculated.
The generation Z x The steps of (a) are as follows:
step 2.1, automatically generating a lower-level power grid area carried by the 220kV transformer substation x according to a power grid topological structure, wherein the generated area model is as follows:
wherein,,n total 220kV main transformers in the transformer substation; />The load in 110kV stations of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is m in total; />K loads in a 35kV station are taken as a lower-level power grid of the transformer substation;
from the calculation it is possible to: z is Z 1 ＝{Tr1,Ld1,Ld2,Ld3,Ld4,Ld5,Ld6}
Z 2 ＝{Tr2,Ld7,Ld8,Ld9}
Step 2.2 reading zone Z x Wherein, the active Px, max and reactive Qx, max corresponding to each object at the maximum load moment of the daily power grid are as follows:
wherein,,is 2 in the region20kV main transformer high-voltage side active and reactive values; />The load active and reactive values in 110kV stations of the lower-level power grid; />The load active and reactive values in the lower power grid 35kV station are obtained; i is the current load;
the read is calculated according to the actual calculated model:
said step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the following steps:
step 3.1 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active sensitivity matrix S of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x The following are provided:
wherein,,sensitivity matrix (m x n) active to main transformer for 110kV load in region,/v>The method is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity of the active power of the jth main transformer high-voltage side winding in the ith 110kV load active power pair area in the area, and the physical meaning of the method is the change amount of the active power of the jth 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding after the active power of the ith 110kV load increasing unit; i is the load less than or equal to m, j is the main transformer less than or equal to n;
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,a sensitivity matrix (k x n dimensions) active on the main transformer for 35kV load in the region; matrix S x The total dimensions of (2) are: (m+k) n;
the calculated sensitivities were:
step 3.2 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active drawing factor matrix A of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x ，
Wherein,,the active drawing matrix (m x n dimension) for the main transformer for the 110kV load in the region comprises the following elements:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 110kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2);
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,the active drawing matrix (k x n dimension) for the 35kV load in the region is as follows:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 35kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2);
the calculated active draw factor is:
said step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the interior of the transformer is calculated, and the method comprises the following steps:
step 4.1 reading in the region Z at the t-th time of the second day from the grid energy management system EMS x Active prediction data of each 220kV main transformer is recorded as:
wherein T is a time scale of the predicted data, the value range is 1-T, i.e. the predicted data of T moments is counted in the second day, the general condition is T=96, and the initial value of T is 1;
step 4.2 calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the areaThe following are provided:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofFor the calculated time zone Z of the second day, t x Active prediction data for medium 110kV and 35kV loads;
4.3t is increased by 1, the step 3.1 is returned to continue to calculate the next moment until the calculation of the active prediction data at all moments in the second day is completed;
the data obtained for region 1 and the data obtained for region 2 are calculated.
Said step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, comprising the following steps:
step 5.1, for the moment t of the second day, calculating 110kV and 35kV load reactive power prediction data in the area by adopting an equal power factor method and referring to the power factor of the load at the momentThe method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
wherein:
in formula (10)The load active and reactive values of the power grid at the moment of the maximum load of the day are given in the formula (2);
reactive values can also be calculated;
and step 5.2t is increased by 1, and the method returns to step 4.1 to continue calculating the next moment until the reactive power prediction data at all moments of the second day are calculated.
The invention has the characteristics and beneficial effects that:
in the provincial power grid energy management system, the power prediction module generally only gives total active prediction data of 220kV main transformer, and cannot be directly used for whole-grid power flow prediction calculation of lower-level power grid models including 110kV, 35kV and the like. According to the invention, the total active prediction data of the 220kV transformer substation main transformer is adopted in the provincial power grid, the active prediction data of the loads in the lower 110kV and 35kV transformer substations connected with each main transformer are calculated and decomposed based on the power grid operation mode and the topological structure, and the corresponding reactive prediction data are calculated. The result of the decomposition calculation is used for forecasting the daily trend of the power grid, so that basic data is provided for daily safety check and daily reactive voltage optimization of the power grid, and the stability and voltage quality of the power grid are improved.
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The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the drawings and the detailed description, for the purpose of facilitating understanding and practicing the present invention by those of ordinary skill in the art, and it should be understood that the scope of the present invention is not limited by the detailed description.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a transformer substation connection relationship according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a prior art zone electrical connection diagram.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction, as shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a flow chart of the method. Before the end of each day, the method reads in the total active load prediction data of all 220kV transformer substation main transformers on the second day, decomposes the total active load prediction data of all 220kV main transformers to loads of lower 110kV and 35kV transformer substations carried by the main transformers based on a current power grid model and an operation state, and further calculates reactive power of all the loads. Taking a 110kV transformer substation as an example, the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, presetting a time T for performing decomposition calculation every day, wherein the time T is usually 22 hours every day;
step 2, temporarily reading in a current power grid model and a power flow calculation result from a power grid energy management system EMS at a time T for daily calculation to form a region Z of a lower power grid carried by the 220kV transformer substation x x X is the number of a 220kV transformer substation in a power grid, and the initial value is 1. Generating Z x The steps of (a) are as follows:
2.1 automatically generating a lower-level power grid region carried by the 220kV transformer substation x according to a power grid topological structure, wherein the generated region model is as follows:
wherein,,n total 220kV main transformers in the transformer substation; />The load in 110kV stations of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is m in total; />K are total for the load in the 35kV station of the lower-level network carried by the substation.
2.2 read-in zone Z x The corresponding active power and reactive power of each object at the maximum load moment of the daily power grid are as follows:
wherein,,the active value and the reactive value of the 220kV main transformer high-voltage side in the region are obtained; />The load active and reactive values in 110kV stations of the lower-level power grid; />The load active and reactive values in the lower power grid 35kV station are obtained; i is the number of devices.
Step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the following steps:
3.1 pair of zones Z x Calculating an active sensitivity matrix S of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x The following are provided:
wherein,,sensitivity matrix (m x n) active to main transformer for 110kV load in region,/v>The method is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity of the active power of the jth main transformer high-voltage side winding in the ith 110kV load active power pair area in the area, and the physical meaning of the method is the change amount of the active power of the jth 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding after the active power of the ith 110kV load increasing unit; i is the load less than or equal to m, j is the main transformer less than or equal to n.
In the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,and a sensitivity matrix (k x n dimension) for 35kV load in the region to be active to the main transformer. Matrix S x The total dimensions of (2) are: (m+k) n.
3.2 pairs of zones Z x Calculating an active drawing factor matrix A of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x ，
Wherein,,the active drawing matrix (m x n dimension) for the main transformer for the 110kV load in the region comprises the following elements:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 110kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (a).
In the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,the active drawing matrix (k x n dimension) for the 35kV load in the region is as follows:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 35kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (a).
Step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the transformer are calculated, and the steps are as follows:
4.1 reading in the region Z at the t-th time of the second day from the grid energy management system EMS x Active prediction data of each 220kV main transformer is recorded as:
wherein T is a time scale of the predicted data, the value range is 1-T, i.e. the predicted data of T moments is counted in the second day, the general condition is T=96, and the initial value of T is 1;is the predicted data at time t.
4.2 calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the regionThe following are provided:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofFor the calculated time zone Z of the second day, t x Active prediction data for 110kV and 35kV loads.
And 4.3t is increased by 1, the step 3.1 is returned to continue to calculate the next moment until the calculation of the active prediction data at all moments of the second day is completed.
Step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, wherein the steps are as follows:
5.1 for the second day t time, calculating 110kV and 35kV load reactive prediction data in the area by adopting an equal power factor method and referring to the power factor of the load at the current timeThe method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
wherein:
in formula (10)The load active and reactive values of the power grid at the time of maximum load of the day are given in the formula (2). I of formula 10 corresponds to m and k of formula 9, respectively.
And 5.2t is increased by 1, the step 4.1 is returned to continue to calculate the next moment until the reactive power prediction data at all moments of the second day are calculated.
And step 6. The x value is increased by 1, the step 2 is returned to continue to calculate the area carried by the next 220kV transformer substation until all 220kV transformer substations are calculated.
The working principle of the method of the invention is as follows:
the sensitivity between the main transformer in the current 220kV station and the loads of the 110kV and 35kV stations is obtained by performing quasi-steady-state sensitivity calculation on the existing provincial region model, active load prediction data of the 220kV station are read, load prediction data of the 110kV and 35kV stations are calculated through the sensitivity, and in the trend prediction, the trend prediction calculation is performed through the load data obtained through decomposition.
Example 2.
In this embodiment, the main transformer in one 220kV station is calculated, and the connection relationship between the station and the station in this embodiment is shown in fig. 2, where the partition includes 2 220kV main transformers Tr1, tr2, loads Ld1, ld2, ld3, ld4, ld5, ld6, ld7, ld8, ld9;
the invention provides a load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, presetting a time T for performing decomposition calculation every day, wherein the time T is usually 22 hours every day;
step 2, temporarily reading in a current power grid model and a power flow calculation result from a power grid energy management system EMS at a time T for daily calculation to form a region Z of a lower power grid carried by the 220kV transformer substation x x X is the number of a 220kV transformer substation in a power grid, and the initial value is 1. Generating Z x The steps of (a) are as follows:
2.1 automatically generating a lower-level power grid region carried by the 220kV transformer substation x according to a power grid topological structure, wherein the generated region model is as follows:
wherein,,n total 220kV main transformers in the transformer substation; />The load in 110kV stations of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is m in total; />K are total for the load in the 35kV station of the lower-level network carried by the substation.
From the calculation it is possible to: z is Z 1 ＝{Tr1,Ld1,Ld2,Ld3,Ld4,Ld5,Ld6}
Z 2 ＝{Tr2,Ld7,Ld8,Ld9}
2.2 read-in zone Z x Wherein, the active Px, max and reactive Qx, max corresponding to each object at the maximum load moment of the daily power grid are as follows:
wherein,,the active value and the reactive value of the 220kV main transformer high-voltage side in the region are obtained; />The load active and reactive values in 110kV stations of the lower-level power grid; />The load active and reactive values in the lower power grid 35kV station are obtained; i is the current load;
the read is calculated according to the actual calculated model:
step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the following steps:
3.1 pair of zones Z x Calculating an active sensitivity matrix S of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x The following are provided:
wherein,,sensitivity matrix (m x n) active to main transformer for 110kV load in region,/v>The method is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity of the active power of the jth main transformer high-voltage side winding in the ith 110kV load active power pair area in the area, and the physical meaning of the method is the change amount of the active power of the jth 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding after the active power of the ith 110kV load increasing unit. i is the load less than or equal to m, j is the main transformer less than or equal to n.
In the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,and a sensitivity matrix (k x n dimension) for 35kV load in the region to be active to the main transformer. Matrix S x The total dimensions of (2) are: (m+k) n.
The calculated sensitivities were:
3.2 pairs of zones Z x Calculating an active drawing factor matrix A of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x ，
Wherein,,the active drawing matrix (m x n dimension) for the main transformer for the 110kV load in the region comprises the following elements:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 110kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (a).
In the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,the active drawing matrix (k x n dimension) for the 35kV load in the region is as follows:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 35kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (a).
The calculated active draw factor is:
step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the transformer are calculated, and the steps are as follows:
4.1 reading in the region Z at the t-th time of the second day from the grid energy management system EMS x Active prediction data of each 220kV main transformer is recorded as:
wherein T is a time scale of the predicted data, the value range is 1-T, i.e. the predicted data of T moments is counted in the second day, the general condition is T=96, and the initial value of T is 1;
4.2 calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the regionThe following are provided:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofFor the calculated time zone Z of the second day, t x Active prediction data for 110kV and 35kV loads.
And 4.3t is increased by 1, the step 3.1 is returned to continue to calculate the next moment until the calculation of the active prediction data at all moments of the second day is completed.
The calculated data are as follows: zone 1
/>
/>
Region 2:
/>
/>
step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, wherein the steps are as follows:
5.1 for the second day t time, calculating 110kV and 35kV load reactive prediction data in the area by adopting an equal power factor method and referring to the power factor of the load at the current timeThe method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
wherein:
in formula (10)The load active and reactive values of the power grid at the time of maximum load of the day are given in the formula (2).
Reactive values can also be calculated;
5.2 And (4) increasing the value of t by 1, returning to the step (4.1) and continuing to calculate the next moment until the reactive power prediction data at all the moments of the second day are calculated.
And step 6. The x value is increased by 1, the step 2 is returned to continue to calculate the area carried by the next 220kV transformer substation until all 220kV transformer substations are calculated.
Claims (6)
1. A load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps: before the end of each day, reading in the total active load prediction data of each 220kV transformer substation main transformer on the second day, decomposing the total active load prediction data of the 220kV main transformer to the loads of the lower 110kV and 35kV transformer substations carried by the main transformer based on the current power grid model and the running state, and further calculating the reactive power of each load; in the case of a 110kV substation, the method comprises the following steps: step 1, presetting a time T for performing decomposition calculation every day, wherein the time T is usually 22 hours every day; step 2, temporarily reading in a current power grid model and a power flow calculation result from a power grid energy management system EMS at a time T for daily calculation to form a region Z of a lower power grid carried by the 220kV transformer substation x x X is the number of a 220kV transformer substation in a power grid, and the initial value is 1; step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the main transformer; step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35 kV; step 6. The x value is increased by 1, the step 2 is returned to continue to calculate the area carried by the next 220kV transformer substation until all 220kV transformer substations are calculated; the Z is x The steps of the generation are as follows:
step 2.1, automatically generating a lower-level power grid area carried by the 220kV transformer substation x according to a power grid topological structure, wherein the generated area model is as follows:
wherein,,n total 220kV main transformers in the transformer substation; />The load in 110kV stations of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is m in total; />The load in a 35kV station of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is k in total;
step 2.2 reading zone Z x The corresponding active power and reactive power of each object at the maximum load moment of the daily power grid are as follows:
wherein,,the active value and the reactive value of the 220kV main transformer high-voltage side in the region are obtained; />The load active and reactive values in 110kV stations of the lower-level power grid; />The load active and reactive values in the lower power grid 35kV station are obtained; i is the number of devices;
said step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the following steps:
step 3.1 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active sensitivity matrix S of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x The following are provided:
wherein,,sensitivity matrix (m x n) active to main transformer for 110kV load in region,/v>The method is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity of the active power of the jth main transformer high-voltage side winding in the ith 110kV load active power pair area in the area, and the physical meaning of the method is the change amount of the active power of the jth 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding after the active power of the ith 110kV load increasing unit; i is the load less than or equal to m, j is the main transformer less than or equal to n;
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,a sensitivity matrix (k x n dimensions) active on the main transformer for 35kV load in the region; matrix S x The total dimensions of (2) are: (m+k) n;
step 3.2 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active drawing factor matrix A of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x ，
Wherein,,the active drawing matrix (m x n dimension) for the main transformer for the 110kV load in the region comprises the following elements:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 110kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2); similarly, let go of>The active drawing matrix (k x n dimension) for the 35kV load in the region is as follows:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 35kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2);
said step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the interior of the transformer is calculated, and the method comprises the following steps:
step 4.1 reading in the region Z at the t-th time of the second day from the grid energy management system EMS x Active prediction data of each 220kV main transformer is recorded as:
wherein T is a time scale of the predicted data, the value range is 1-T, i.e. the predicted data of T moments is counted in the second day, the general condition is T=96, and the initial value of T is 1;the predicted data at the time t;
step 4.2 calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the areaThe following are provided:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofFor the calculated time zone Z of the second day, t x Active prediction data for medium 110kV and 35kV loads;
step 4.3t is increased by 1, the step 3.1 is returned to continue to calculate the next moment until the calculation of the active prediction data at all moments in the second day is completed;
said step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, comprising the following steps:
step 5.1, for the moment t of the second day, calculating 110kV and 35kV load reactive power prediction data in the area by adopting an equal power factor method and referring to the power factor of the load at the momentThe method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
wherein:
in formula (10)The load active and reactive values of the power grid at the moment of the maximum load of the day are given in the formula (2); i of formula 10 corresponds to m, k of formula 9, respectively;
and step 5.2t is increased by 1, and the method returns to step 4.1 to continue calculating the next moment until the reactive power prediction data at all moments of the second day are calculated.
2. The load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of reading in the total active prediction data of all 220kV transformer substation main transformers on the second day, decomposing the total active load prediction data of the 220kV main transformers to loads of subordinate 110kV and 35kV transformer substations carried by the main transformers based on a current power grid model and an operation state, and further calculating the reactive power of all the loads; calculating with main transformer in 220kV station, wherein the partition comprises two 220kV main transformers Tr1, tr2, loads Ld1, ld2, ld3, ld4, ld5, ld6, ld7, ld8 and Ld9; the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, presetting a time T for performing decomposition calculation every day, wherein the time T is usually 22 hours every day;
step 2, temporarily reading in a current power grid model and a power flow calculation result from a power grid energy management system EMS at a time T for daily calculation to form a region Z of a lower power grid carried by the 220kV transformer substation x x X is the number of a 220kV transformer substation in a power grid, and the initial value is 1;
step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x ；
Step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of the 220kV main transformer, calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the main transformer;
step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35 kV;
and step 6. The x value is increased by 1, the step 2 is returned to continue to calculate the area carried by the next 220kV transformer substation until all 220kV transformer substations are calculated.
3. The load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction according to claim 2, characterized by comprising the following steps: the generation Z x The steps of (a) are as follows:
step 2.1, automatically generating a lower-level power grid area carried by the 220kV transformer substation x according to a power grid topological structure, wherein the generated area model is as follows:
wherein,,n total 220kV main transformers in the transformer substation; />Load in 110kV station of lower-level power grid carried by transformer substationCounting m; />The load in a 35kV station of a lower-level power grid carried by the transformer substation is k in total;
from the calculation it is possible to: z is Z 1 ＝{Tr1,Ld1,Ld2,Ld3,Ld4,Ld5,Ld6}
Z 2 ＝{Tr2,Ld7,Ld8,Ld9}
Step 2.2 reading zone Z x Wherein, the active Px, max and reactive Qx, max corresponding to each object at the maximum load moment of the daily power grid are as follows:
wherein,,the active value and the reactive value of the 220kV main transformer high-voltage side in the region are obtained; />The load active and reactive values in 110kV stations of the lower-level power grid; />The load active and reactive values in the lower power grid 35kV station are obtained; i is the current load;
the read is calculated according to the actual calculated model:
4. a method according to claim 2A load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps: said step 3. For zone Z x Calculating the load active drawing factor matrix A in the system x The method comprises the following steps:
step 3.1 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active sensitivity matrix S of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x The following are provided:
wherein,,sensitivity matrix (m x n) active to main transformer for 110kV load in region,/v>The method is the quasi-steady-state sensitivity of the active power of the jth main transformer high-voltage side winding in the ith 110kV load active power pair area in the area, and the physical meaning of the method is the change amount of the active power of the jth 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding after the active power of the ith 110kV load increasing unit; i is the load less than or equal to m, j is the main transformer less than or equal to n;
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,a sensitivity matrix (k x n dimensions) active on the main transformer for 35kV load in the region; matrix S x The total dimensions of (2) are: (m+k) n;
the calculated sensitivities were:
step 3.2 vs. zone Z x Calculating an active drawing factor matrix A of load in the region to 220kV main transformer high-voltage side winding x ，
Wherein,,the active drawing matrix (m x n dimension) for the main transformer for the 110kV load in the region comprises the following elements:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 110kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2);
in the same way, the processing method comprises the steps of,a drawing matrix (k-dimension) active on main transformer for 35kV load in region, whichThe elements are as follows:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofIn the formula (2), the region Z x The active power of the high-voltage side of the middle jth main transformer; />In the formula (2), the region Z x The ith 35kV load active power; />Is a submatrix->Is an element of (2);
the active draw factor is calculated as:
。
5. the load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction according to claim 2, characterized by comprising the following steps: said step 4. For zone Z x According to the active prediction data of 220kV main transformer, calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the interior of the transformer, and packagingThe method comprises the following steps:
step 4.1 reading in the region Z at the t-th time of the second day from the grid energy management system EMS x Active prediction data of each 220kV main transformer is recorded as:
wherein T is a time scale of the predicted data, the value range is 1-T, i.e. the predicted data of T moments is counted in the second day, the general condition is T=96, and the initial value of T is 1;
step 4.2 calculating load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV in the areaThe following are provided:
wherein the method comprises the steps ofFor the calculated time zone Z of the second day, t x Active prediction data for medium 110kV and 35kV loads;
4.3t is increased by 1, the step 3.1 is returned to continue to calculate the next moment until the calculation of the active prediction data at all moments in the second day is completed;
the data obtained for region 1 and the data obtained for region 2 are calculated.
6. The load prediction data decomposition method for power grid day-ahead tide prediction according to claim 2, characterized by comprising the following steps: said step 5. For zone Z x According to the load active prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, calculating the reactive prediction data of 110kV and 35kV, comprising the following steps:
step 5.1, for the second day t time, adopting an equal power factor method to refer to the negative of the current timeLoad power factor, 110kV and 35kV load reactive power prediction data in calculation areaThe method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
wherein:
in formula (10)The load active and reactive values of the power grid at the moment of the maximum load of the day are given in the formula (2);
reactive values can also be calculated;
and step 5.2t is increased by 1, and the method returns to step 4.1 to continue calculating the next moment until the reactive power prediction data at all moments of the second day are calculated.
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