CN110442900B - Power transmission line tower economic loss analysis method - Google Patents
Power transmission line tower economic loss analysis method Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN110442900B CN110442900B CN201910518221.0A CN201910518221A CN110442900B CN 110442900 B CN110442900 B CN 110442900B CN 201910518221 A CN201910518221 A CN 201910518221A CN 110442900 B CN110442900 B CN 110442900B
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- tower
- transmission line
- power transmission
- formula
- power
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 101
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 14
- 230000006378 damage Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 14
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 9
- 238000005452 bending Methods 0.000 claims description 40
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 claims description 21
- 230000032683 aging Effects 0.000 claims description 19
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 claims description 18
- 230000036541 health Effects 0.000 claims description 17
- NAWXUBYGYWOOIX-SFHVURJKSA-N (2s)-2-[[4-[2-(2,4-diaminoquinazolin-6-yl)ethyl]benzoyl]amino]-4-methylidenepentanedioic acid Chemical compound C1=CC2=NC(N)=NC(N)=C2C=C1CCC1=CC=C(C(=O)N[C@@H](CC(=C)C(O)=O)C(O)=O)C=C1 NAWXUBYGYWOOIX-SFHVURJKSA-N 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000003068 static effect Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 239000010421 standard material Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 abstract description 6
- 230000009471 action Effects 0.000 description 5
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 5
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 3
- 229910000831 Steel Inorganic materials 0.000 description 2
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000008439 repair process Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000004044 response Effects 0.000 description 2
- 239000010959 steel Substances 0.000 description 2
- 238000012876 topography Methods 0.000 description 2
- 241000282326 Felis catus Species 0.000 description 1
- 230000001133 acceleration Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000009825 accumulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006978 adaptation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000004020 conductor Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000007797 corrosion Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005260 corrosion Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000008878 coupling Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010168 coupling process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005859 coupling reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000001186 cumulative effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000013016 damping Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000001419 dependent effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000006073 displacement reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000011521 glass Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000008821 health effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000003862 health status Effects 0.000 description 1
- 229910052739 hydrogen Inorganic materials 0.000 description 1
- 238000009434 installation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000012212 insulator Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000010354 integration Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007774 longterm Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007935 neutral effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010223 real-time analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004043 responsiveness Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000035945 sensitivity Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000035882 stress Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000006467 substitution reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000017105 transposition Effects 0.000 description 1
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/20—Administration of product repair or maintenance
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention provides a method for analyzing economic loss of a power transmission line tower, which comprises the following steps: determining a current status of a power line tower; determining a cost of maintenance, overhaul or rebuild of the power line tower; and determining the economic loss of the power transmission line tower after the wind disaster through the economic loss model of the power transmission line tower. The economic loss analysis method of the power transmission line tower emphasizes modeling of economic loss caused by damage of the power transmission line tower in wind disaster, thereby providing effective early warning of wind disaster loss for the power transmission line tower in a power grid system and being used as a preparation basis for recovery after disaster.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power transmission towers, and particularly relates to a power transmission tower economic loss analysis method.
Background
The power transmission line tower is a structure supporting a lead and a lightning conductor of a high-voltage or ultrahigh-voltage overhead power transmission line; it is generally divided into: wine glass type, cat head type, upper font type, dry font type and barrel type, according to the usage divide into: strain tower, tangent tower, angle tower, transposition tower, terminal tower and crossing tower. The power line tower is a structure with large flexibility, small damping and wind sensitivity; in daily use, the cable mainly bears loads such as wind load, ice load, line tension, constant load, heavy loads of personnel and tools during installation or maintenance, broken lines, earthquake action and the like; wherein wind damage is the main cause of loss of the transmission line tower.
At present, few researches on the wind damage of the power line tower are carried out, and a representative research is the research of a Japanese scholars; since the vast majority of large-size power transmission line towers in Japan are built in mountainous areas, the influence of local wind caused by topography is considered when designing the power transmission line towers, japanese scholars collect wind speed, wind direction, tower acceleration, tower stress and wire tension of a power transmission line tower with the mountain top height of 1243m from 1991 to 1993, and consider the vibration characteristics of the power transmission line tower structure caused by different wind directions and topography.
However, the research only focuses on the situation of one power transmission line tower, and does not provide a unified and comprehensive wind field modeling scheme under the complex terrain condition, so that the condition of the power transmission line tower subjected to wind disaster and the direct and indirect losses after tower collapse are not deeply researched, and the power transmission line tower loss early warning and post-disaster recovery basis cannot be used as the power transmission line tower loss early warning and post-disaster recovery basis after the wind disaster.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention discloses an economic loss analysis method of a power transmission line tower, which comprises the following steps:
determining a current status of a power line tower;
determining a cost of maintenance, overhaul or rebuild of the power line tower;
and determining the economic loss of the power transmission line tower after the wind disaster through the economic loss model of the power transmission line tower.
Further, the determining the present status of the power tower comprises: a health index model of the power line tower and a tower collapse probability model of the power line tower are determined.
Further, the health index model of the power line tower is shown in the following formula (1):
in the formula (1), the parameter t is the service time of the power tower, z is the height of any point of the power tower, and M eff (t) effective breaking bending moment; age eff (t) is the effective aging equation; a and B are adjustment parameters; rud denotes redundancy parameters; m 1 (z, t) represents the bending moment of the structural section, said M R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section.
Further, the M 1 (z,t)=M 1 (z 0 ) Wherein M is 1 (z 0 ) The formula (2) below is calculated as follows:
in the formula (2), z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower; z is a radical of 0 Calculating the height of the section as required; h is the total height of the tower; f (z) is the equivalent design wind load of the tower body of the transmission line tower and is a function of height change;
the M is R The calculation formula of (z) is shown in the following formula (3):
M R (z)=αe -βz +γ (3)
in the formula (3), alpha, beta and gamma are undetermined parameters, and z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower.
Further, said M eff (t) is the effective destruction bending moment calculation formula (4) as follows:
wherein, in the above formula (4), M eff The calculation formula of (z, t) is shown in the following formula (5):
in the formulas (4) and (5), z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower, t represents the using time of the power transmission tower, H is the total height of the tower, M 1 (z, t) represents the bending moment of the structural section, said M R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section.
Further, the adjustment coefficient B is calculated as shown in the following equation (7):
in formula (7), T total Designing a rated full life design cycle for the power transmission line tower under ideal environment and static wind conditions; f (1,1, 25,60%, 7) is an aging function formed by the structure index, the standard material index, the air temperature, the humidity and the pH value of the known standard power line tower;
the adjustment coefficient a is calculated as shown in the following equation (8):
m in formula (8) fall (z) is the wind load F fall Lower corresponding tower section bending moment; t is a unit of total The rated full life design cycle of the power transmission line tower under the ideal environment and static wind condition is provided, wherein H is the total height of the tower; m R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section.
Further, the calculation formula of the tower falling probability of the power line tower is shown as the following formula (9):
in the formula (9), P fall (ω) actual probability of falling, P, after correction fall_hw (ω) is the probability of falling in a theoretical strong wind, where ω represents the wind speed, a 1 For adjusting the parameters, rud represents the redundancy parameters; m 1 (z, t) represents the bending moment of the structural section, said M R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section.
Further, the cost of maintenance service or rebuilding of a power tower includes material costs and labor costs.
Further, the economic loss model of the power line tower is shown as the following formula (10):
in the formula (10), TLTHI is the health index of the transmission tower, C L For cost of labor, C M Is the material cost; a is a 2 、a 3 、a 4 、a 5 To adjust the parameters.
The economic loss analysis method of the power transmission line tower emphasizes modeling of economic loss caused by damage of the power transmission line tower in wind disaster, thereby providing effective early warning of wind disaster loss for the power transmission line tower in a power grid system and being used as a preparation basis for recovery after disaster.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and those skilled in the art can also obtain other drawings according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 shows a flow diagram according to an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 2 shows the probability of tower collapse for a power line tower at different wind speeds in an embodiment in accordance with the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention provides a method for analyzing economic loss of a power transmission line tower, which is specifically used for analyzing and explaining the economic loss of the power transmission line tower after wind disaster as an example.
Fig. 1 shows a flow diagram according to an embodiment of the invention. Illustratively, as shown in fig. 1, the analysis method comprises the steps of:
the method comprises the following steps: determining the current situation of a power line tower;
wherein the determining of the present status of the power line tower comprises determining a health index model of the power line tower and a tower collapse probability model of the power line tower;
specifically, the Health Index TLTHI (Transmission Line power Health Index) of the power Transmission Line Tower refers to the Health condition of the power Transmission Line Tower, and the Health Index of the power Transmission Line Tower is considered according to the cumulative quantity of the bending moment of the structural section of the power Transmission Line Tower with respect to time, the structure, the material, the external environment variable, the building and using age, the aging process and other comprehensive factors; specifically, the health index (TLTHI) of the power tower may be expressed by the following formula (1):
wherein, in the above formula (1), the parameter t is the operating time of the power tower, z is the height of any point of the power tower, and M eff (t) effective breaking bending moment; age eff (t) is the SMTHPt effective aging equation; a and B are adjustment parameters, and A and B represent the aging results of the transmission line tower caused by two different mechanisms, wherein the mechanism represented by A is the aging result of the transmission line tower under the action of external force for a long time, and the mechanism represented by B is the aging result of the transmission line tower caused by the external environment; rud denotes redundancy parameters, when M 1 (z,t)>rud M R (z) it is shown that the tower is influenced by wind loads at least at some point in that the bending moment of the structural cross-section exceeds the design value of the tower including redundancy, i.e. the tower is subjected to a wind load which is a function of the design valueIt is considered that the falling is likely to occur, but it is not absolutely likely to occur (for example, when rud =1.2, it is considered that the falling is not caused); however, in this case, assuming that the current health status of the tower itself is already "0", thorough maintenance and recovery are required. On the contrary, when M 1 (z,t)<rud·M R (z) when the tower is influenced by wind load, the bending moment of the structural section of the tower does not exceed a rated design value containing redundancy, and the tower falling condition is considered to be less likely to occur; at M 1 (z,t)=rud·M R And (z) indicating that the tower is influenced by wind load and the bending moment of the structural section of the tower is equal to a redundant rated design value, namely, the tower collapse condition is considered to be likely to occur, but not absolutely likely to occur.
In the above formula (1), M 1 (z, t) is a structural section bending moment for designing wind load acting on the power transmission line tower, and in the power transmission line tower structure, vibration between the power transmission line tower and the power transmission line is mutually influenced to form a mutually coupled nonlinear system; therefore, the structural plane bending moment effect generated by the design wind load on the power transmission tower body is composed of the force directly acting on the power transmission tower body and the force acting on the tower body by the power transmission line; in the power transmission line system in a balanced state under the static force action, the horizontal components of the pulling force of the power transmission line system are mutually offset, the vertical component increases the weight of the structure, and the pulling force does not generate bending moment of the cross section of the structure. Under the action of wind load, the power transmission line generates downwind displacement and deformation, and components along the direction of the wire are balanced with each other due to the existence of the insulator; however, the component in the direction perpendicular to the transmission line produces a bending moment in the cross section of the transmission tower structure. Static analysis of the power transmission line can be carried out through finite element modeling, so that the bending moment of the section of the tower body is obtained; however, the method of obtaining the section bending moment of the power transmission tower through finite element mechanical analysis consumes a lot of computing resources, and is very high in time cost, which is not beneficial to real-time evaluation and prediction of the tower in wind disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain a simple analytical formula which is convenient for real-time analysis and calculation according to the mechanical analysis, the empirical formula and the off-line experimental database to solve the problem.
In conclusion, the bending moment M of the cross section of the power transmission tower structure 1 (z,t)=M 1 (z 0 ) Wherein M is 1 (z 0 ) Can be represented by the following formula (2):
in the formula (2), z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower; z is a radical of 0 Calculating the height value of the cross section; h is the total height of the tower; f (z) is the equivalent design wind load of the tower body of the transmission line tower and is subjected to the function of height change; wherein M is 1 (z,t)=M 1 (z 0 ) Because when t is determined, M 1 The value of (z, t) is only height dependent, whereas when the height of any point of the pylon is determined, z is defined as the height z of the section to be calculated 0 Then z is calculated at time t 0 The bending moment and the bending moment at the height are M 1 (z 0 ). Illustratively, the F (z) may be exemplified by the following formula:
in the formula, ρ air Is the air density, omega max (z) maximum base wind speed of wind load at z-height of transmission tower, C flg Is an aerodynamic body coefficient, C dyn As a dynamic response factor, A f The frontal area of the tower.
In the formula (1), M R (z) the bending resistance of the structural section is exponentially distributed along the height under the action of the bending moment of the power line tower, and can be specifically represented by the following formula (3):
M R (z)=αe -βz +γ (3)
in the formula (3), z is the height of any point of the power transmission line tower, alpha, beta and gamma are undetermined parameters, different power transmission line towers have different characteristics, and finite element analysis needs to be performed respectively, or mechanical test is performed to fit the undetermined parameters.
In the above formula (1), the bending moment M is effectively destroyed eff The calculation formula of (t) can be represented by the following formula (4):
in the above formula (4), M eff The calculation formula of (z, t) can be represented by the following formula (5):
in the formulas (4) and (5), z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower, t represents the using time of the power transmission tower, H is the total height of the tower, and M 1 (z, t) represents the bending moment of the structural section, said M R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section.
SMTHPt effective aging equation Age eff (t), the detailed calculation formula can be represented by the following formula (6):
Age eff (t)=f(S tructure ,M aterial ,T em p erature ,H umidity ,PH) (6)
in the formula (6), S tructure Indexing for a structure; m aterial Indexing the material; the two indexing parameters locate the power tower characteristics under different design criteria. T is em p erature Is the air temperature; h umidity Is the air humidity; PH is the air pH coefficient. The accumulation of time with different coefficients produces different effects of tower aging. SMTHPt effective aging equation Age eff (t) is determined by the material of the transmission line tower, the structure of the transmission line tower and the environment of the transmission line tower including the air temperature, the air humidity and the pH value of the air, and in a specific environment, the material of the transmission line tower, the structure of the transmission line tower and the environment of the transmission line tower including the air temperature, the air humidity and the pH value of the air are known, so that the SMTHPt effective aging equation Age with time t as a variable can be obtained eff (t); illustratively, the structure index is a known coefficient of S; the material index is a known coefficient M; the coefficient of air temperature is T; the coefficient of air humidity is H; the air pH value coefficient is P, wherein S, M, T, H and P are in specific environmentKnowing that Age with a unique variable t is available eff (t) calculating formula; after the time is known, a specific SMTHPt effective aging value can be obtained.
In the above formula (1), the mechanism represented by the adjustment coefficient B is the aging result of the power line tower caused by the external environment; the calculation formula of the adjustment coefficient B can be represented by the following formula (7):
in the formula (7), T total The method is characterized in that a standard power line tower structure and material are selected for a power line tower rated full life design cycle under ideal environment and static wind conditions, namely a set life cycle when the power line tower is built, an ideal aging environment is selected, and the power line tower cannot support section bending moment corresponding to rated wind load due to the effects of structure aging and fatigue after the time. Illustratively, the adjustment parameter is calculated under a standard condition, wherein the standard power line tower structure index is 1, the standard material index is 1, the air temperature is 25 ℃, the humidity is 60%, and the PH value is neutral PH =7, then f (1,1, 25,60%, 7) in the above formula (7) is the power line tower structure index under the standard condition, the standard material index, the air temperature, the humidity and the PH value are known and are substituted into the function, after each parameter is determined, only one independent variable t remains in the function, so that the function is a function with respect to time, and the adjustment parameter B can be obtained through integration.
In the above formula (1), the mechanism represented by the adjustment coefficient a is an aging result of the power line tower caused by the long-term external force acting on the power line tower; the calculation formula of the adjustment coefficient a can be expressed by the following formula (8):
in formula (8), M fall (z) is the wind load F fall Lower corresponding tower section bending moment, typically M fall (z) is a constant; f fall All within the whole life cycle of the towerUniformly applied to the tower body in a horizontal direction and right at the moment T when the design life of the tower is over total Leading to a tower collapse phenomenon where a certain cross section cannot support a real-time bending moment. Force F of this process fall The numerical solution of A can be obtained by coupling multiple physical quantities with finite element analysis. Therefore, the health condition initialization modeling of the power line tower is completed through calculation of various parameters.
In addition, the adjustment coefficient A and the adjustment coefficient B are paired with M eff (t) effective destruction of bending moments, age eff And (t) adjusting an SMTHPt effective aging equation, mainly considering the influence of external force and environment on the power transmission line tower in the actual condition, and calculating by adding an adjustment coefficient to ensure that the model is more accurate and has higher accuracy.
The probability P of tower falling of the power transmission line tower fall The calculation of (ω) can be represented by the following formula (9):
in the formula (9), P fall (omega) is the probability of falling down the tower in the actual strong wind after correction, P fall_hw (omega) is the probability of falling down in a theoretical strong wind, a 1 To adjust the parameters, rud represents the redundancy parameter, where ω represents wind speed; m 1 (z, t) represents the bending moment of the section of the structure at a certain height at time t, M R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section; utilizing (9) to make tower falling probability P fall And (omega) in the calculation, the health condition of the power line tower is considered, and the tower falling probability is adjusted through adjusting parameters, so that the accuracy of the calculated tower falling probability is higher.
For P fall_hw (omega), because the power transmission tower is a multi-layer steel structure building, the structure has uniformity on the response and the collapse probability of different stress-type disasters. In the prior art, an evaluation model (FEMA semi Performance Assessment of Buildings) about earthquake Performance of a single building is established, and a power transmission line tower collapse probability P under different wind loads is established based on a part of the evaluation model about a building structure fall_hw (ω)(Power System responsiveness to Extreme Weather modification and Adaptation Measures), but this Probabilistic model does not take into account the structural fatigue of steel structures, and the occurrence of corrosion and other negative health effects over time leading to an increased probability and degree of damage in natural disasters.
For the adjustment coefficient a 1 Illustratively, the adjustment parameter a 1 The value range of (1) is any value which is not 0 in the range of 0-2, if the result is predicted well through historical climate and weather, the current service time of the power line tower is two years, and the structure loss is less, the value of less than 1 can be selected as the adjusting parameter, and the value is used for reducing the probability value of falling down the tower under strong wind calculated by the existing model; if the prediction result is severe through historical climate and weather, and the service life of the power line tower is 10 years, the value of more than 1 is selected as the adjusting parameter, the probability value of tower falling under strong wind calculated by the existing model is improved, and the protection level of the power line tower is improved.
Step two: determining a cost of maintenance, overhaul or rebuild of the power line tower;
wherein the cost of maintenance service or reconstruction includes labor cost and material cost; for example, if a tower collapse phenomenon does not occur after a wind disaster, the tower needs to be maintained and repaired, and the required maintenance and repair cost includes the used material cost C M And cost of labor C L . If the power transmission tower falls down after wind disaster, the power transmission tower needs to be rebuilt, and the cost comprises the labor cost C for building a pole tower L And material cost C M (based on the currency of the year of establishment); the specific labor cost and material cost need to be based on the current economic condition. In addition, from the reality we can conclude that the cost of maintenance, repair or restorative reconstruction is directly proportional to the extent of damage to the transmission tower.
Step three: and determining the economic loss of the power transmission line tower after the wind disaster through the economic loss model of the power transmission line tower.
Wherein the economic loss model of the power line tower is represented by the following formula (10):
in the formula (10), TLTHI is a health index of a power line tower, C L For cost of labor, C M Is the material cost; a is 2 、a 3 、a 4 、a 5 To adjust the parameters, the parameters a are adjusted 2 、a 3 、a 4 、a 5 Representing monetary value changes due to inflation of currency and additional overhead after a disaster, etc., and setting a at an initial stage for simplifying modeling 2 、a 3 、a 4 、a 5 These several parameters are all "1".
Then, the simplified emergency loss model of the power tower is represented by the following equation (11):
from (11), it can be seen that fall When the power line tower damage degree is less than 1, namely the tower falling probability is less than 1, the power line tower is considered to be damaged by wind disaster at the moment, but the current tower falling situation cannot occur, the generated loss is labor cost and material cost generated by maintenance at the moment, but the specific cost needs to be determined according to the damage degree of the power line tower; illustratively, if the health index of the tower is 70% after a wind hazard, the loss of the tower is only 30% of the labor and material costs of the rebuild, i.e., the economic loss is 30% L +30%C M . When P is present fall If the power transmission line tower is not less than 1, the health index of the power transmission line tower is 0, namely the probability of tower falling is equal to 1, the power transmission line tower is considered to be damaged by wind disasters to cause the phenomenon of tower falling, and the loss generated at the moment is the labor cost and the material cost of reconstruction, namely C L +C M 。
In addition, the structure and parameters of the model can be optimized through fig. 2, and as shown in fig. 2, the probability of tower collapse is increased along with the increase of wind speed; for example, at a wind speed of 10m/s, the probability of tower collapse for the first year of operation (the curve with triangles in fig. 2) is close to 0.1, and the probability of tower collapse for the maximum design year (the curve in fig. 2) is close to 0.2; when the wind speed is 30m/s, the tower falling probability of the first year of operation is 0.9-0.95, and the tower falling probability of the maximum design life is close to 0.95-1; compared with the maximum design year within the first year of operation, the probability of tower falling in the first year of operation is obviously lower than that of the maximum design year at the same wind speed, and illustratively, the probability of tower falling in the first year of operation is between 0.65 and 0.7 and the probability of tower falling in the maximum design year is between 0.8 and 0.85 at the wind speed of 20 m/s; thus, it can be seen that as time increases, the more damage the power line tower has, the greater the probability of tower collapse; the maximum design age is a preliminary preset use age when the power transmission tower is designed, and for example, when the expected use age is 10 years when one power transmission tower is designed, the maximum design age is 10 years.
In the present invention, the same reference numerals are used for the same purposes unless otherwise specified.
The economic loss analysis method of the power transmission line tower emphasizes modeling of economic loss caused by damage of the power transmission line tower in wind disaster, thereby providing effective early warning of wind disaster loss for the power transmission line tower in a power grid system and being used as a preparation basis for recovery after disaster.
Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A method for analyzing economic loss of a power transmission line tower is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining the current situation of a power transmission line tower, including determining a health index model of the power transmission line tower and a tower-falling probability model of the power transmission line tower;
determining a cost of maintenance, overhaul or rebuild of the power line tower;
determining the economic loss of the power transmission line tower after wind disaster through an economic loss model of the power transmission line tower;
wherein the health index model of the power line tower is shown as the following formula (1):
TLTHI in formula (1) is the health index of the power tower, parameter t is the service time of the power tower, z is the height of any point of the power tower, M eff (t) effective destruction bending moment; age eff (t) is the effective aging equation; a and B are adjustment parameters; rud denotes redundancy parameters; m 1 (z, t) represents the bending moment of the structural section, said M R (z) represents the bending resistance of the structural section;
wherein, M is eff (t) is the effective destruction bending moment calculation formula (4) as follows:
wherein, in the above formula (4), M eff The calculation formula of (z, t) is shown in the following formula (5):
in the formulas (4) and (5), H is the total height of the tower;
b is calculated as shown in the following formula (7):
in the formula (7), T total Designing a rated full life design cycle for the power transmission line tower under ideal environment and static wind conditions; f (1,1,25,60%, 7) is a known standard transmission line tower structure cableIntroducing a standard material index, and forming an aging function by air temperature, humidity and pH value;
the formula for a is shown in the following formula (8):
m in formula (8) fall (z) is the wind load F fall Lower corresponding tower section bending moment;
wherein the economic loss model of the power line tower is shown as the following formula (10):
in the formula (10), C L For cost of labor, C M Is the material cost; a is 2 、a 3 、a 4 、a 5 To adjust the parameters;
the calculation formula of the tower falling probability of the power line tower is shown as the following formula (9):
in the formula (9), P fall (ω) actual probability of falling, P fall_hw (ω) is the probability of falling in a theoretical strong wind, where ω represents the wind speed, a 1 To adjust the parameters.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein M is a value obtained by analyzing economic losses of a power tower 1 (z,t)=M 1 (z 0 ) Wherein M is 1 (z 0 ) The formula (2) below is calculated as follows:
in the formula (2), z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower; z is a radical of 0 Calculating the height of the section as required; h is the total height of the tower; f (z) is the equivalent design wind load of the tower body of the transmission line tower and is a function of height change;
said M R The calculation formula of (z) is shown in the following formula (3):
in the formula (3), alpha, beta and gamma are undetermined parameters, and z is the height of any point of the power transmission tower.
3. Method for the analysis of the economic losses of a power tower according to any of the claims 1-2, characterized in that the costs for maintenance service or reconstruction of the power tower include material costs and labor costs.
Priority Applications (1)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
CN201910518221.0A CN110442900B (en) | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-14 | Power transmission line tower economic loss analysis method |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
CN201910518221.0A CN110442900B (en) | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-14 | Power transmission line tower economic loss analysis method |
Publications (2)
Publication Number | Publication Date |
---|---|
CN110442900A CN110442900A (en) | 2019-11-12 |
CN110442900B true CN110442900B (en) | 2022-12-23 |
Family
ID=68429185
Family Applications (1)
Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
---|---|---|---|
CN201910518221.0A Active CN110442900B (en) | 2019-06-14 | 2019-06-14 | Power transmission line tower economic loss analysis method |
Country Status (1)
Country | Link |
---|---|
CN (1) | CN110442900B (en) |
Citations (3)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP2005218204A (en) * | 2004-01-28 | 2005-08-11 | Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc:The | Method for assisting determination of strength of pylon of power transmission line, device for assisting the determination of the strength, computer program, program storing medium |
CN105740548A (en) * | 2016-02-01 | 2016-07-06 | 西安交通大学 | Method for calculating wind vibration of power transmission line under random wind load |
JP2016158324A (en) * | 2015-02-23 | 2016-09-01 | 古河電気工業株式会社 | Power transmission line work method, power transmission line equipment and power transmission line work support device, using wedge-type clamp |
Family Cites Families (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN101546414A (en) * | 2009-04-28 | 2009-09-30 | 国家***东海预报中心 | Method for quantitatively pre-evaluating direct economic loss of storm surge disaster of typhoon |
CN103207340B (en) * | 2013-05-02 | 2015-04-08 | 深圳供电局有限公司 | On-line early warning method for lightning shielding failure tripping of power transmission line |
CN104268791B (en) * | 2014-08-21 | 2017-10-27 | 国家电网公司华中分部 | The health evaluating method of 500kV ultra-high-tension power transmission lines in mountain environment |
CN104458079A (en) * | 2014-12-09 | 2015-03-25 | 国家电网公司 | Health monitoring method of distribution type optical fiber sensing pole and tower |
CN105468876B (en) * | 2015-12-28 | 2019-12-13 | 国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院 | method and system for real-time online evaluation of safety state of power transmission tower |
CN107657090B (en) * | 2017-09-12 | 2020-10-20 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Method for judging icing instability of tension tower of power transmission line |
-
2019
- 2019-06-14 CN CN201910518221.0A patent/CN110442900B/en active Active
Patent Citations (3)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP2005218204A (en) * | 2004-01-28 | 2005-08-11 | Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc:The | Method for assisting determination of strength of pylon of power transmission line, device for assisting the determination of the strength, computer program, program storing medium |
JP2016158324A (en) * | 2015-02-23 | 2016-09-01 | 古河電気工業株式会社 | Power transmission line work method, power transmission line equipment and power transmission line work support device, using wedge-type clamp |
CN105740548A (en) * | 2016-02-01 | 2016-07-06 | 西安交通大学 | Method for calculating wind vibration of power transmission line under random wind load |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
---|---|
CN110442900A (en) | 2019-11-12 |
Similar Documents
Publication | Publication Date | Title |
---|---|---|
CN107657090B (en) | Method for judging icing instability of tension tower of power transmission line | |
Gu et al. | Fatigue life estimation of steel girder of Yangpu cable-stayed bridge due to buffeting | |
CN104063750B (en) | The Forecasting Methodology of the disaster-stricken influence of power system based on the anti-entropy weight of advanced AHP | |
CN105468876A (en) | Real-time online evaluation method and system for safety state of power transmission tower | |
Li et al. | Probabilistic capacity assessment of single circuit transmission tower-line system subjected to strong winds | |
CN103246805B (en) | A kind of method of estimation for becoming stoppage in transit probability under disaster caused by a windstorm weather during overhead transmission line | |
CN110929391B (en) | Method and system for calculating fault rate of power distribution network under typhoon disaster | |
CN109146149A (en) | A kind of electric network fault method for early warning based on the random short-term failure model of equipment | |
CN102968554B (en) | Tower pole icing disaster risk prediction method based on safety margin | |
He et al. | A method for analyzing stability of tower-line system under strong winds | |
CN106503751A (en) | A kind of power transmission line Louis dance potential prediction method based on SVM classifier | |
CN106651140B (en) | Module difference evaluation method and device for power transmission line risk in typhoon area | |
Zhang et al. | Failure analysis of large‐scale wind power structure under simulated typhoon | |
CN110276536A (en) | The power distribution network shaft tower security assessment method of exponential type de-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) | |
CN112684294B (en) | Distribution network fault rush-repair positioning method based on dynamic influence of environment | |
Fu et al. | Gust response factor of a transmission tower under typhoon | |
CN114548601A (en) | Power distribution network power failure prediction method and system under extreme disasters based on BP neural network | |
CN114676551A (en) | Distribution line tower collapse and line break accident evaluation method under flood disaster | |
CN110442900B (en) | Power transmission line tower economic loss analysis method | |
CN105930964A (en) | Power transmission line icing risk assessment method based on impact from space-time factors | |
CN112580243A (en) | Power transmission line deicing jump dynamic response simulation analysis method | |
CN113158484A (en) | Method and system for evaluating stability of transmission tower under geological disaster condition | |
Ju et al. | Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) for a cable stayed bridge under typhoon | |
CN110442897B (en) | Power line tower falling situation analysis method | |
CN110442898B (en) | Power transmission line health condition model online optimization method |
Legal Events
Date | Code | Title | Description |
---|---|---|---|
PB01 | Publication | ||
PB01 | Publication | ||
SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
GR01 | Patent grant | ||
GR01 | Patent grant |