CN109961155A - A kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion - Google Patents

A kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion Download PDF

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CN109961155A
CN109961155A CN201910038436.2A CN201910038436A CN109961155A CN 109961155 A CN109961155 A CN 109961155A CN 201910038436 A CN201910038436 A CN 201910038436A CN 109961155 A CN109961155 A CN 109961155A
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transformer
failure
period
spare
calculated
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任洲洋
姜云鹏
李辉
项波
胡伟楠
张聪誉
王波
范克军
胡敬喜
罗张尧
熊维兵
张勇
钟国龙
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Wan Zhou Of Guo Wang Chongqing City Electrical Power Co Power Supply Branch
Chongqing University
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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Wan Zhou Of Guo Wang Chongqing City Electrical Power Co Power Supply Branch
Chongqing University
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion mainly comprises the steps that 1) acquisition transformer data.2) calculating transformer ageing index.3) time in place of retired spare number transformer and all transformers in planning period t is calculated.4) total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is calculated.5) probability that transformer in 1 period is in m kind failure state is calculated.6) reliability level that transformer in planning period t enables y kind alternative scheme is calculated.7) time in place of optimal alternative scheme and the spare number transformer that fails in planning period t are calculated.8) number transformer storeed needed for optimal alternative scheme is calculated.The present invention can make full use of the measured data of Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount, the virtual condition of accurate evaluation transformer.Model established by the present invention considers the virtual condition and crash rate of each transformer, is capable of the reliability of accurate evaluation transformer group.

Description

A kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion
Technical field
The present invention relates to the spare field of transformer, specifically a kind of transformer based on status monitoring and reliability criterion is standby Use method.
Background technique
Transformer is one of the core equipment for guaranteeing power grid normal operation, energy conversion and transfer function is carry, to electricity The reliability service of Force system plays a significant role, and the failure of transformer includes fixable failure and ageing failure, when transformer is sent out When raw fixable failure, it usually needs longer repair time can restore electricity, and ageing failure is non-fixable failure, meaning Taste the termination of transformer life, when suddenly ageing failure occurs for transformer, if carried out more by purchasing new transformer It changes disabling devices and then needs the longer time.Therefore, serious power outage, Jin Erzao be may cause when transformer fails At serious economic loss.
When transformer fails, the installing and using of spare transformer can effectively shorten fault time, reduce and have a power failure Loss, but the buying of spare transformer, reserve and maintenance are also required to a large amount of capital input, if the quantity of spare transformer Excessively, then it will increase capital input, cause unnecessary fund to waste, if the quantity of spare transformer is very few, can bring Unnecessary system risk, it is difficult to meet system reliability of operation.Therefore, reasonable transformer alternative mean can be mentioned effectively High system reliability of operation and economy.
However, existing transformer alternative mean disadvantage is: 1) according to the statistical data of historical failure, it is believed that transformer Each transformer crash rate having the same in group, have ignored each transformer uses time, operation conditions and operation ring The difference in border；2) alternative mean can determine the quantity of spare transformer, but not can determine that the time in place of spare transformer； 3) the ageing failure rate that transformer is only assessed according to the enlistment age of transformer, does not consider the practical shape of each transformer State, thus it is unable to the reliability of accurate evaluation transformer and the risk of system.
For example, existing method proposes, the crash rate of each transformer of setting is 0.015 times/year, identified spare change Depressor quantity is 1, does not determine the time in place of spare transformer, and also having research is the enlistment age calculating according to transformer The ageing failure rate of transformer, has ignored the virtual condition of transformer.
Summary of the invention
Present invention aim to address problems of the prior art.
To realize the present invention purpose and the technical solution adopted is that such, one kind being based on status monitoring and reliability criterion Transformer alternative mean, mainly comprise the steps that
1) transformer data are obtained.
The transformer data mainly include Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount measured data, Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount weighting system Number, transformer ageing failure parameter, transformer mean repair time and transformer are averaged failure frequency.
The transformer ageing failure parameter mainly includes the enlistment age parameter of transformer, ageing failure rate model parameter With retired age parameter.
2) calculating transformer ageing index.
The key step of calculating transformer ageing index is as follows:
2.1) remember that i-th Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount measured data integrates as X=[xi1, xi2..., xij..., xif].Remember jth Kind status monitoring amount weighting coefficient integrates as W=[w1, w2..., wj..., wf]。
2.2) the ageing index I of i-th transformerdpiIt is as follows:
In formula, xijAnd wjRespectively indicate the measured data and weighting coefficient of j-th of status monitoring amount of i-th transformer.i =1,2 ..., n.N is transformer number of units.J=1,2 ..., f.F is status monitoring amount number.I, n, f and j are natural number.
2.3) according to formula 1, n platform transformer ageing index set I=[I1, I2..., Idpi..., In]。
3) time in place for calculating retired spare number transformer and all transformers in planning period t, period t is planned Period be denoted as T.
It is as follows to calculate retired spare number transformer and the key step of time in place in planning period t:
3.1) the insulation age L of i-th transformer is calculatedci, it may be assumed that
3.2) the insulation age L in i-th transformer kth year in planning time section t is calculatedfik, it may be assumed that
In formula, i=1,2 ..., n.N is the number of units of transformer.K=1,2 ..., t.T is planning time section.IiFor transformer Enlistment age parameter.
3.3) the ageing failure rate λ in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t is calculatedaik, it may be assumed that
In formula, PjFor the failure probability of j-th of sub- period in 1 period of planning time section t.
Wherein, the failure probability P of j-th of sub- period in 1 period of planning time section tjIt is as follows:
In formula, N is the sub- time hop counts in 1 period of planning time section t with Δ x equal part.α is transformer ageing failure The scale parameter of rate model.β is the form parameter of transformer ageing failure rate model.
3.4) the retired age parameter L of transformer is comparedmaxWith i-th transformer in planning time section t k-th of period Insulation age Lfik.If Lfik>Lmax, then i-th transformer occurs retired k-th of period.
4) total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is calculated.
The key step for calculating the corresponding total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is as follows:
4.1) the fixable failure rate λ of calculating transformerr, it may be assumed that
In formula, TrFor transformer mean repair time.fyIt is averaged failure frequency for transformer.
4.2) i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t corresponding total crash rate λ is calculatedik, it may be assumed that
λik=λaik+λr-λaikλr (7)
In formula, λaikFor the ageing failure rate in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t.
5) probability that transformer in 1 period is in m kind failure state is calculated.M=1,2,3 ..., Nm。NmFor the shape that fails State sum.
In calculating cycle T transformer be in the probability of m kind failure state key step it is as follows:
5.1) quantity of setting failure transformer, is denoted as nfailure。
5.2) n is enumeratedfailurePlatform fails transformer when failing, corresponding failure state and failure state number Measure Nm。
In formula,WithIndicate different failure states.
5.3) calculating transformer is in corresponding probability when m kind failure state within k-th of period of planning time section t Pmk, it may be assumed that
In formula, nmFor failure number transformer corresponding to m kind failure state.nm=0,1 ..., nfailure.M=1, 2,…,Nm。NmFor failure state number.λbkAnd λdkRespectively b platform transformer and d platform transformer is corresponding to k-th of period Total crash rate.B=1,2 ..., nm.D=1,2 ..., n-nm。
5.4) s-th of failure state corresponding probability P when k-th of period fails in planning time section t is calculatedsk, That is:
In formula, nsFor the failure state number for being x with failure number transformer.X=0,1 ..., nfailure。
6) reliability level that transformer in planning period t enables y kind alternative scheme, y=1,2,3 ..., N are calculatedy。Ny For alternative scheme sum.
The key step of the reliability level of transformer enabling alternative scheme is as follows in calculation interval t:
6.1) the spare number transformer of setting failure, is denoted as nspare。nspare<nfailure。
6.2) it counts in transformer group and successively enables 0 to nsparePossessed alternative scheme number when platform failure spare transformer Ny, it may be assumed that
Ny=nspare+1 (11)
6.3) calculate transformer group enable each alternative scheme in the planning time section t it is annual it is corresponding can By the horizontal P of propertyyk, it may be assumed that
In formula, y=1,2 ..., Ny。NyIndicate alternative scheme number.
7) optimal alternative scheme is chosen, i.e. the selection highest alternative scheme of reliability level, and calculated in planning period t most The time in place of excellent alternative scheme and the spare number transformer that fails.
It calculates and plans that the key step of the time in place of alternative scheme and the spare number transformer that fails is such as in period t Under:
7.1) it obtains acceptable have a power failure of system and continues hourage AT, and according to the number of units n of the transformer, calculate change The reliability level R of depressor group settinge, it may be assumed that
7.2) in planning time section t, by reliability corresponding to y-th of alternative scheme of k-th of periodic pressure oscillation device group Horizontal PykWith the reliability level R of transformer group settingeIt compares, filters out Pyk> ReCorresponding alternative scheme.
7.3) mistake corresponding to each alternative scheme is counted in planning time section t according to the alternative scheme filtered out Imitate spare number transformer and time in place.
8) number transformer storeed needed for optimal alternative scheme is calculated.
The solution have the advantages that unquestionable.The present invention provides one kind to be based on status monitoring and reliability criterion The spare analysis method of transformer, pass through using each transformer status monitoring information, the reality of each transformer of accurate evaluation Border state, to formulate reasonable spare strategy for transformer group, it is ensured that the reliability of Operation of Electric Systems avoids unnecessary Fund waste.The present invention can make full use of the measured data of Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount, the practical shape of accurate evaluation transformer State.
Model established by the present invention considers the virtual condition and crash rate of each transformer, being capable of accurate evaluation transformation The reliability of device group.
Method proposed by the invention can not only determine the quantity of spare transformer, can also determine spare transformer Time in place facilitates the spare management system for improving Utilities Electric Co..
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to embodiment, the invention will be further described, but should not be construed the above-mentioned subject area of the present invention only It is limited to following embodiments.Without departing from the idea case in the present invention described above, according to ordinary skill knowledge and used With means, various replacements and change are made, should all include within the scope of the present invention.
Embodiment 1:
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion mainly includes following step It is rapid:
1) transformer data are obtained.
The transformer data mainly include Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount measured data, Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount weighting system Number, transformer ageing failure parameter, transformer mean repair time and transformer are averaged failure frequency.
The transformer ageing failure parameter mainly includes the enlistment age parameter of transformer, ageing failure rate model parameter With retired age parameter.
2) calculating transformer ageing index.
The key step of calculating transformer ageing index is as follows:
2.1) remember that i-th Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount measured data integrates as X=[xi1, xi2..., xij..., xif].Remember jth Kind status monitoring amount weighting coefficient integrates as W=[w1, w2..., wj..., wf]。
2.2) the ageing index I of i-th transformerdpiIt is as follows:
In formula, xijAnd wjRespectively indicate the measured data and weighting coefficient of j-th of status monitoring amount of i-th transformer.i =1,2 ..., n.N is transformer number of units.J=1,2 ..., f.F is status monitoring amount number.I, n, f and j are natural number.
2.3) according to formula 1, n platform transformer ageing index set I=[I1, I2..., Idpi..., In]。
3) time in place of retired spare number transformer and all transformers in planning period t is calculated.Plan period t Period be denoted as T.The present embodiment cycle T is 1 year.
It is as follows to calculate retired spare number transformer and the key step of time in place in planning period t:
3.1) the insulation age L of i-th transformer is calculatedci, it may be assumed that
Transformer natural age refers to the actual age that transformer operates normally, and the insulation age refers to that the insulation of transformer is old Change the corresponding basal age of status monitoring amount.
3.2) the insulation age L in i-th transformer kth year in planning time section t is calculatedfik, it may be assumed that
In formula, i=1,2 ..., n.N is the number of units of transformer.K=1,2 ..., t.T is planning time section.IiFor transformer Enlistment age parameter.
3.3) the ageing failure rate λ in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t is calculatedaik, it may be assumed that
In formula, PjFor the failure probability of j-th of sub- period in 1 period of planning time section t.
Wherein, the failure probability P of j-th of sub- period in 1 period of planning time section tjIt is as follows:
In formula, N is the sub- time hop counts in 1 period of planning time section t with Δ x equal part.α is transformer ageing failure The scale parameter of rate model.β is the form parameter of transformer ageing failure rate model.
3.4) the retired age parameter L of transformer is comparedmaxWith i-th transformer in planning time section t k-th of period Insulation age Lfik.If Lfik>Lmax, then i-th transformer occurs retired k-th of period.The retired age parameter of transformer LmaxFor the parameter carried when transformer factory.
4) total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is calculated.
The key step for calculating the corresponding total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is as follows:
4.1) the fixable failure rate λ of calculating transformerr, it may be assumed that
In formula, TrFor transformer mean repair time.fyIt is averaged failure frequency for transformer.
4.2) i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t corresponding total crash rate λ is calculatedik, it may be assumed that
λik=λaik+λr-λaikλr (7)
In formula, λaikFor the ageing failure rate in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t.
5) probability that transformer in 1 period is in m kind failure state is calculated.M=1,2,3 ..., Nm。NmFor the shape that fails State sum.
In calculating cycle T transformer be in the probability of m kind failure state key step it is as follows:
5.1) quantity of setting failure transformer, is denoted as nfailure。
5.2) n is enumeratedfailurePlatform fails transformer when failing, corresponding failure state and failure state number Measure Nm。
In formula,WithIndicate different failure states.
5.3) calculating transformer is in corresponding probability when m kind failure state within k-th of period of planning time section t Pmk, it may be assumed that
In formula, nmFor failure number transformer corresponding to m kind failure state.nm=0,1 ..., nfailure.M=1, 2,…,Nm。NmFor failure state number.λbkAnd λdkRespectively b platform transformer and d platform transformer is corresponding to k-th of period Total crash rate.B=1,2 ..., nm.D=1,2 ..., n-nm。
5.4) s-th of failure state corresponding probability P when k-th of period fails in planning time section t is calculatedsk, That is:
In formula, nsFor the failure state number for being x with failure number transformer.X=0,1 ..., nfailure。
6) reliability level that transformer in planning period t enables y kind alternative scheme is calculated.Y=1,2,3 ..., Ny。Ny For alternative scheme sum.
The key step of the reliability level of transformer enabling alternative scheme is as follows in calculation interval t:
6.1) the spare number transformer of setting failure, is denoted as nspare。nspare<nfailure。
6.2) it counts in transformer group and successively enables 0 to nsparePossessed alternative scheme number when platform failure spare transformer Ny, it may be assumed that
Ny=nspare+1 (11)
6.3) calculate transformer group enable each alternative scheme in the planning time section t it is annual it is corresponding can By the horizontal P of propertyyk, it may be assumed that
In formula, y=1,2 ..., Ny。NyIndicate alternative scheme number.
7) optimal alternative scheme is chosen, i.e. the selection highest alternative scheme of reliability level, and calculated in planning period t most The time in place of excellent alternative scheme and the spare number transformer that fails.
It calculates and plans that the key step of the time in place of alternative scheme and the spare number transformer that fails is such as in period t Under:
7.1) it obtains acceptable have a power failure of system and continues hourage AT, and according to the number of units n of the transformer, calculate change The reliability level R of depressor group settinge, it may be assumed that
7.2) in planning time section t, by reliability corresponding to y-th of alternative scheme of k-th of periodic pressure oscillation device group Horizontal PykWith the reliability level R of transformer group settingeIt compares, filters out Pyk> ReCorresponding alternative scheme.
7.3) mistake corresponding to each alternative scheme is counted in planning time section t according to the alternative scheme filtered out Imitate spare number transformer and time in place.
8) number transformer storeed needed for optimal alternative scheme is calculated.
Embodiment 2:
A kind of experiment for verifying the transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion mainly includes following step It is rapid:
1) input institute parameter in need, specifically includes:
Input f=6 state prison of transformer number of units n=22 and i-th transformer of certain Utilities Electric Co. X transformer group The measured data x of measurementijWith weighting coefficient wj, wherein i=1,2 ..., n, n are transformer number of units, and j=1,2 ..., f, f is shape State monitoring quantity number, wherein weighting coefficient wjIt is as shown in table 1:
The weighting coefficient w of 1 status monitoring amount of tablej
j J=1 J=2 J=3 J=4 J=5 J=6
Weighting coefficient wj 62.69 52.02 40.53 30.61 56.17 53.56
Input the enlistment age parameter I of n=22 platform transformeri, as shown in table 2:
The enlistment age parameter I of 2 transformer of tablei
Ageing failure rate model parameter α=6.90 of input transformer and β=31.40.The retired age of input transformer Parameter Lmax=35.Input planning time section t=10.
Input the mean repair time T of n platform transformerr=168 and average failure frequency fy=0.65.
Acceptable have a power failure of input system continues hourage AT=2.1.
2) ageing index of n=22 platform transformer is calculated
According to formula (1), the ageing index I of n=22 platform transformer is calculateddpi, as shown in table 3:
The ageing index I of 3 transformer of tabledpi
3) n=22 platform transformer corresponding insulation age and ageing failure rate in planning time section t=10 are calculated, And count retired spare number transformer and time in place
According to formula (2) and formula (3), it is corresponding exhausted in planning time section t=10 to calculate n=22 platform transformer Edge age Lfik, as shown in table 4:
The insulation of table 4 age Lfik
Insulate age Lfik K=1 K=2 K=3 K=4 K=5 K=6 K=7 K=8 K=9 K=10
I=1 15.94 16.87 17.80 18.73 19.66 20.59 21.52 22.45 23.38 24.31
I=2 14.76 15.90 17.04 18.18 19.33 20.47 21.61 22.75 23.90 25.04
I=3 26.31 27.55 28.79 30.03 31.28 32.52 33.76 35.00 36.25 37.49
I=4 25.41 26.61 27.82 29.02 30.22 31.42 32.62 33.82 35.02 36.22
I=5 6.96 7.81 8.67 9.53 10.39 11.24 12.10 12.96 13.82 14.68
I=6 9.09 10.21 11.33 12.45 13.57 14.69 15.81 16.93 18.05 19.17
I=7 5.69 6.55 7.41 8.27 9.13 10.00 10.86 11.72 12.58 13.44
I=8 7.60 8.74 9.89 11.03 12.17 13.31 14.45 15.59 16.74 17.88
I=9 5.52 6.58 7.64 8.70 9.76 10.82 11.88 12.94 14.01 15.07
I=10 5.34 6.27 7.20 8.12 9.05 9.98 10.90 11.83 12.76 13.68
I=11 4.57 5.64 6.72 7.79 8.86 9.93 11.00 12.07 13.15 14.22
I=12 3.87 4.78 5.69 6.60 7.51 8.41 9.32 10.23 11.14 12.04
I=13 16.50 17.65 18.80 19.94 21.09 22.24 23.38 24.53 25.68 26.82
I=14 12.81 13.64 14.48 15.31 16.15 16.98 17.82 18.65 19.49 20.32
I=15 20.58 21.72 22.85 23.98 25.12 26.25 27.38 28.52 29.65 30.78
I=16 24.29 25.49 26.69 27.88 29.08 30.28 31.48 32.67 33.87 35.07
I=17 2.69 3.61 4.53 5.45 6.37 7.28 8.20 9.12 10.04 10.95
I=18 2.74 3.68 4.61 5.55 6.48 7.42 8.35 9.28 10.22 11.15
I=19 3.81 4.89 5.97 7.05 8.12 9.20 10.28 11.36 12.43 13.51
I=20 3.23 4.15 5.06 5.98 6.89 7.80 8.72 9.63 10.55 11.46
I=21 1.70 2.65 3.59 4.53 5.48 6.42 7.37 8.31 9.25 10.20
I=22 1.95 3.04 4.12 5.20 6.29 7.37 8.45 9.54 10.62 11.70
According to formula (4) and formula (5), it is corresponding old in planning time section t=10 to calculate n=22 platform transformer Change crash rate λaik, as shown in table 5:
5 ageing failure rate λ of tableaik
Ageing failure λaik K=1 K=2 K=3 K=4 K=5 K=6 K=7 K=8 K=9 K=10
I=1 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.009 0.012 0.016 0.020 0.025
I=2 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.009 0.013 0.017 0.022 0.029
I=3 0.039 0.050 0.064 0.081 0.102 0.125 0.153 0.185 0.221 0.260
I=4 0.032 0.041 0.053 0.067 0.084 0.104 0.127 0.154 0.185 0.220
I=5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001
I=6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.006
I=7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
I=8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004
I=9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002
I=10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
I=11 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
I=12 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=13 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.011 0.015 0.020 0.026 0.034 0.043
I=14 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.009
I=15 0.009 0.013 0.017 0.023 0.030 0.038 0.048 0.061 0.076 0.093
I=16 0.025 0.032 0.042 0.054 0.068 0.085 0.105 0.129 0.156 0.186
I=17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
I=20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Compare insulation age L corresponding to i-th transformer of kth yearfikWith retired age parameter Lmax, work as Lfik> Lmax= When 35, transformer generation is retired, counts retired spare number transformer and the time in place is as shown in table 6:
The retired spare number transformer of table 6 and time in place
Retired spare number transformer 1st spare 2nd spare 3rd spare
The retired spare transformer time in place K=8 K=9 K=10
4) calculate the fixable failure rate of n=22 platform transformer and in planning time section t=10 it is corresponding total Crash rate
According to formula (6), the fixable failure rate λ of calculating transformerr=1.25 × 10-4。
According to formula (7), n=22 platform transformer corresponding total crash rate λ in planning time section t=10 is calculatedik, It is as shown in table 7:
The total crash rate λ of table 7ik
Total crash rate λik K=1 K=2 K=3 K=4 K=5 K=6 K=7 K=8 K=9 K=10
I=1 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.007 0.010 0.012 0.016 0.020 0.025
I=2 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.009 0.013 0.017 0.022 0.029
I=3 0.039 0.050 0.064 0.081 0.102 0.126 0.153 0.185 0.221 0.260
I=4 0.032 0.041 0.053 0.067 0.084 0.104 0.128 0.155 0.185 0.220
I=5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
I=6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.006
I=7 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
I=8 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004
I=9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002
I=10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001
I=11 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001
I=12 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
I=13 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.011 0.015 0.020 0.026 0.034 0.043
I=14 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.009
I=15 0.010 0.013 0.017 0.023 0.030 0.038 0.049 0.061 0.076 0.093
I=16 0.025 0.032 0.042 0.054 0.068 0.085 0.105 0.129 0.156 0.187
I=17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
I=20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=21 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I=22 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
5) probability corresponding when different failure states occurs for calculating transformer group
Set the failure number of units n of transformerfailure=5, according to formula (8), successively have 0 to 5 in calculating transformer group Platform transformer failure state number corresponding when failing, obtains Nm=35443.
According to formula (9) and (10), calculating transformer group is annual in planning time section t=10 successively to have 0 to 5 change The probability P of corresponding failure state when depressor failssk, as shown in table 8:
The probability P of 8 transformer of table corresponding failure state when failingsk
Planning time 0 failure 1 failure 2 failures 3 failures 4 failures 5 failures
K=1 0.89036 0.10541 0.00417 0.00007 0.00000 0.00000
K=2 0.85795 0.13481 0.00709 0.00015 0.00000 0.00000
K=3 0.81868 0.16926 0.01174 0.00033 0.00000 0.00000
K=4 0.77201 0.20836 0.01892 0.00070 0.00001 0.00000
K=5 0.71772 0.25114 0.02968 0.00144 0.00003 0.00000
K=6 0.65601 0.29583 0.04523 0.00286 0.00007 0.00000
K=7 0.58763 0.33981 0.06687 0.00550 0.00018 0.00000
K=8 0.63672 0.31114 0.04902 0.00305 0.00007 0.00000
K=9 0.70383 0.26470 0.03009 0.00135 0.00002 0.00000
K=10 0.79583 0.18897 0.01471 0.00048 0.00001 0.00000
6) calculating transformer group enables reliability level corresponding when different alternative schemes
The spare number transformer n of setting failurespare=4, according to formula (11), 0 is successively enabled in calculating transformer group Corresponding alternative scheme number, obtains N when to 4 failure spare transformersy=5.
According to formula (12), calculating transformer group successively enables N every year in planning time section t=10yA alternative scheme When corresponding reliability level Pyk, as shown in table 9:
9 reliability level P of tableyk
Planning time Without spare 1 spare 2 spare 3 spare 4 spare
K=1 0.89036 0.99576 0.99993 1.00000 1.00000
K=2 0.85795 0.99276 0.99985 1.00000 1.00000
K=3 0.81868 0.98793 0.99967 1.00000 1.00000
K=4 0.77201 0.98037 0.99929 0.99999 1.00000
K=5 0.71772 0.96886 0.99853 0.99997 1.00000
K=6 0.65601 0.95184 0.99707 0.99993 1.00000
K=7 0.58763 0.92744 0.99432 0.99982 1.00000
K=8 0.63672 0.94786 0.99688 0.99993 1.00000
K=9 0.70383 0.96854 0.99862 0.99998 1.00000
K=10 0.79583 0.98480 0.99951 0.99999 1.00000
7) reliability level of calculating transformer group setting, and count fail spare number transformer and time in place
Continue hourage A according to acceptable have a power failure of the system of inputT=2.1, and according to the number of units n=of transformer 22, with formula (13), the reliability level R of calculating transformer group settinge:
By NyReliability level P of a alternative scheme in kth yearykWith the reliability level R of transformer group settingeCarry out pair Than working as Pyk> ReWhen=0.9947, alternative scheme is reliable, the statistics spare number transformer of failure and time such as table in place Shown in 10.
The number transformer and time in place that table 10 fails spare
Fail spare number transformer 1 spare 2 spare 3 spare
It fails the spare transformer time in place K=1 K=2 K=7
8) according to the failure of the retired spare number transformer of third step statistics and time in place and the 7th step statistics Spare number transformer and time in place further count the total number of units of spare transformer that each time needs are storeed, such as table Shown in 11.
The each time of table 11 needs the total number of units of spare transformer storeed
The time in place of spare transformer The reserve number of units of spare transformer
K=1 1 failure is spare
K=2 2 failures are spare
K=3 2 failures are spare
K=4 2 failures are spare
K=5 2 failures are spare
K=6 2 failures are spare
K=7 3 failures are spare
K=8 3 failures are spare, and 1 retired spare
K=9 3 failures are spare, and 1 retired spare
K=10 3 failures are spare, and 1 retired spare
In view of the foregoing it is apparent that the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1) present invention can make full use of the measured data of Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount, the practical shape of accurate evaluation transformer State.
2) model established by the present invention considers the virtual condition and crash rate of each transformer, being capable of accurate evaluation change The reliability of depressor group.
3) method proposed by the invention can not only determine the quantity of spare transformer, can also determine spare transformer Time in place, facilitate the spare management system for improving Utilities Electric Co..

Claims (8)

1. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion, which is characterized in that mainly include following step It is rapid:
1) the transformer data are obtained；
2) calculating transformer ageing index.
3) time in place of retired spare number transformer and all transformers in planning period t is calculated；Plan the week of period t Phase is denoted as T；
4) total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is calculated；
5) probability that transformer in 1 period is in m kind failure state is calculated；M=1,2,3 ..., Nm；NmIt is total for failure state Number；
6) reliability level that transformer in planning period t enables y kind alternative scheme is calculated；Y=1,2,3 ..., Ny；NyIt is standby With scheme sum；
7) optimal alternative scheme, i.e. the selection highest alternative scheme of reliability level are selected, and is calculated optimal standby in planning period t Time in place with scheme and the spare number transformer that fails；
8) number transformer storeed needed for optimal alternative scheme is calculated.
2. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1, feature Be: the transformer data mainly include Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount measured data, Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount weighting coefficient, Transformer ageing failure parameter, transformer mean repair time and transformer are averaged failure frequency；
The transformer ageing failure parameter mainly includes the enlistment age parameter I of transformeri, ageing failure rate model parameter and Retired age parameter.
3. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1 or 2, special Sign is that the key step of calculating transformer ageing index is as follows:
1) remember that i-th Transformer's Condition Monitoring amount measured data integrates as X=[xi1, xi2..., xij..., xif]；Remember jth kind state Monitoring quantity weighting coefficient integrates as W=[w1, w2..., wj..., wf]；
2) the ageing index I of i-th transformerdpiIt is as follows:
In formula, xijAnd wjRespectively indicate the measured data and weighting coefficient of j-th of status monitoring amount of i-th transformer；I=1, 2 ..., n；N is transformer number of units；J=1,2 ..., f；F is status monitoring amount number；I, n, f and j are natural number；
3) according to formula 1, n platform transformer ageing index set I=[I1, I2..., Idpi..., In]。
4. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1, feature It is, it is as follows calculates retired spare number transformer and the key step of time in place in planning period t:
1) the insulation age L of i-th transformer is calculatedci, it may be assumed that
2) the insulation age L in i-th transformer kth year in planning time section t is calculatedfik, it may be assumed that
In formula, i=1,2 ..., n；N is the number of units of transformer；K=1,2 ..., t；T is planning time section；IiFor transformer military service Age parameter；
3) the ageing failure rate λ in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t is calculatedaik, it may be assumed that
In formula, PhFor the failure probability of h-th of sub- period in 1 period of planning time section t；N is sub- period sum； Δ x indicates the anyon period；
Wherein, the failure probability P of h-th of sub- period in 1 period of planning time section thIt is as follows:
In formula, N is the sub- time hop counts in 1 period of planning time section t with Δ x equal part；α is transformer ageing failure rate mould The scale parameter of type；β is the form parameter of transformer ageing failure rate model；
4) the retired age parameter L of transformer is comparedmaxWith the insulation in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t Age Lfik；If Lfik>Lmax, then i-th transformer occurs retired k-th of period.
5. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1 or 2, special Sign is that the key step for calculating the corresponding total crash rate of transformer in 1 period is as follows:
1) the fixable failure rate λ of calculating transformerr, it may be assumed that
In formula, TrFor transformer mean repair time；fyIt is averaged failure frequency for transformer；
2) i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t corresponding total crash rate λ is calculatedik, it may be assumed that
λik=λaik+λr-λaikλr (7)
In formula, λaikFor the ageing failure rate in i-th transformer, k-th of period in planning time section t.
6. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1, feature It is, the key step for calculating the probability that transformer is in m kind failure state in 1 period is as follows:
1) quantity of setting failure transformer, is denoted as nfailure；
2) n is enumeratedfailurePlatform fails transformer when failing, corresponding failure state and failure state quantity Nm；
In formula,WithIndicate different failure states；
3) calculating transformer is in corresponding probability P when m kind failure state within k-th of period of planning time section tmk, it may be assumed that
In formula, nmFor failure number transformer corresponding to m kind failure state；nm=0,1 ..., nfailure；M=1,2 ..., Nm；NmFor failure state number；λbkAnd λdkRespectively b platform transformer and d platform transformer total mistake corresponding to k-th of period Efficiency；B=1,2 ..., nm；D=1,2 ..., n-nm；
4) s-th of failure state corresponding probability P when k-th of period fails in planning time section t is calculatedsk, it may be assumed that
In formula, nsFor the failure state number for being x with failure number transformer；X=0,1 ..., nfailure。
7. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1, feature It is, the key step for calculating the reliability level that transformer enables alternative scheme in planning period t is as follows:
1) the spare number transformer of setting failure, is denoted as nspare；nspare<nfailure；
2) it counts in transformer group and successively enables 0 to nsparePossessed alternative scheme number N when platform failure spare transformery, it may be assumed that
Ny=nspare+1 (11)
3) it calculates transformer group and enables each alternative scheme annual corresponding reliability water in the planning time section t Flat Pyk, it may be assumed that
In formula, y=1,2 ..., Ny；NyIndicate alternative scheme number.
8. a kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion according to claim 1, feature It is, it is as follows calculates the key step of the time in place of alternative scheme and the spare number transformer that fails in planning period t:
1) it obtains acceptable have a power failure of system and continues hourage AT, and according to the number of units n of the transformer, calculate transformer group The reliability level R of settinge, it may be assumed that
2) in planning time section t, by reliability level P corresponding to y-th of alternative scheme of k-th of periodic pressure oscillation device groupyk With the reliability level R of transformer group settingeIt compares, filters out Pyk> ReCorresponding alternative scheme；
3) it is spare to be counted in planning time section t according to the alternative scheme filtered out for failure corresponding to each alternative scheme Number transformer and the time in place.
CN201910038436.2A 2019-01-16 2019-01-16 A kind of transformer alternative mean based on status monitoring and reliability criterion Pending CN109961155A (en)

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