CN109191846A - A kind of traffic trip method for predicting - Google Patents

A kind of traffic trip method for predicting Download PDF

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Publication number
CN109191846A
CN109191846A CN201811189434.5A CN201811189434A CN109191846A CN 109191846 A CN109191846 A CN 109191846A CN 201811189434 A CN201811189434 A CN 201811189434A CN 109191846 A CN109191846 A CN 109191846A
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data
parameter
traffic
relevance
ambient weather
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CN201811189434.5A
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CN109191846B (en
Inventor
董知周
王锋华
沈杰
缪竞雄
李国胜
郑文斌
王绍荃
钟尚染
陈莉
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HANGZHOU YUSHU INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Co.,Ltd.
Wenzhou Science and Technology Branch of Zhejiang Tusheng Transmission and Transfer Engineering Co.,Ltd.
Wenzhou Power Supply Co of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Hangzhou Yushu Information Technology Co Ltd
WENZHOU TUSHENG TECHNOLOGY Co Ltd
Wenzhou Power Supply Co of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/0104Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
    • G08G1/0137Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions for specific applications
    • G08G1/0145Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions for specific applications for active traffic flow control
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G06Q50/40

Abstract

The present invention relates to a kind of traffic trip method for predicting, the construction method includes the following steps: step 1, external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data are obtained and obtain initial data, using initial data respectively obtain the ambient weather parameter after quantization and with ambient weather parameter corresponding traffic flow parameter in real time, step 2, ambient weather parameter and traffic flow parameter are handled and stored to database, step 3, it is analyzed according to the difference of the data type in database using different being associated property of analysis method and obtains the biggish parameter of relevance, step 4, Method Modeling is carried out using the biggish parameter combination algorithm of relevance, following magnitude of traffic flow is predicted.

Description

A kind of traffic trip method for predicting
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of traffic, especially a kind of traffic trip method for predicting.
Background technique
With the improvement of people's living standards, the automobile volume of holding is also stepping up per capita, when urban municipal road is built When speed is lower than automobile increased number, urban road vehicle flowrate will be significantly increased, when sudden accident especially occurs, four crossway The traffic of mouth will become state of paralysis moment, need a large amount of police strength that scene is gone to keep order at this time, cause greatly to people's lives Ground is inconvenient.Traditional traffic trip method for predicting is that the vehicle flowrate based on usual traffic intersection does an average treatment, so After provide prediction result, such prediction mode is not bound with the other influences factor for influencing traffic trip.Therefore, comprehensively consider shadow The each influence factor of traffic trip is rung, by mathematical modeling to the Accurate Prediction of vehicular traffic trip flow, to be Ministry of Communications Door provides an accurately dispatch coordination scheme, and facilitating people's trip is present urgent problem to be solved.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of traffic trip method for predicting to solve the deficiency of above-mentioned technology.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, a kind of traffic trip method for predicting, it is characterised in that: the construction method Include the following steps: step 1, external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data are obtained and obtained initial data, benefit The ambient weather parameter after quantifying is respectively obtained with initial data and the corresponding magnitude of traffic flow is joined in real time with ambient weather parameter Ambient weather parameter and traffic flow parameter are handled and are stored to database, step 3, according to number by number, step 2 The biggish parameter of relevance is analyzed and obtains using different being associated property of analysis method according to the difference of the data type in library, Step 4 carries out Method Modeling using the biggish parameter combination algorithm of relevance, predicts following magnitude of traffic flow.
After the above method, a kind of core concept of traffic trip method for predicting is obtained based on big data Under background, establish Database Systems, then the data in Database Systems carry out analysis comparison, obtain relevance it is biggish because Element, then these factors are modeled, prediction chart is made, road where future can be thus speculated according to previous data The traffic trip flow of mouth, and data acquiring mode mainly includes business investigation, related system combing and dependency number in step 1 According to acquisition three parts content.Business investigation is mainly unfolded in a manner of interview, forms investigation scheme by discussion, and determining finally needs It asks.Related system combing is mainly based upon road traffic flow real current situation, lists needed for prediction road traffic flow analysis Related data detail combs out road traffic flow related data information system.Related data obtains mainly from road traffic Road traffic flow related data is obtained in flow relevant information system, and is arranged and formed road traffic flow data acquisition system.Step Database is established in rapid two mainly based on computer hardware, is divided into data acquisition, database design and Database three Big step.Data acquisition: data are exported based on road traffic flow related system, database is imported in the form of Excel, realize system System is docked with the artificial of library.Database design: using data derived from system as substrate, in conjunction with corresponding professional knowledge, to data Library carries out corresponding Table Design.Database: data and designed table are combined, and data is made to can be realized increasing It revises and looks into, realize the foundation of database.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the external traffic data on flows includes capturing place, and bayonet title is captured Time, the ambient weather data include the highest temperature, lowest temperature, weather, wind direction, wind-force.
After the above method, above-mentioned data are possible be with the data class that influences the relevant property of road traffic travel amount Type, by obtaining the modeling datas such as external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data from channels such as traffic department, weather sites.
As a further improvement of the present invention, by external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data respectively with obtain ring Corresponding Real-Time Traffic Volume carries out pearson correlation analysis when the weather data of border, obtains correlation coefficient r related with the degree of association, The value range of correlation coefficient r are as follows: -1≤r≤1, it is stronger closer to ± 1 relevance, it is weaker closer to 0 relevance, it is positive and negative Indicate related direction, positive to indicate to be positively correlated, bearing indicates negatively correlated.
After the above method, since the embodiment mode of relevance is varied, the status based on data, this item number It also include numeric type variable according to both including classification type variable, therefore, with pearson correlation analysis and Spearman correlation analysis two Kind method can be adapted to different types of variable format comprehensively, it is possible thereby to seek out the Main Factors for influencing the magnitude of traffic flow, realize Information characteristics identification provides data basis for traffic trip prediction.
After the above method, the Pearson correlation coefficients r in pearson correlation analysis quantifies to measure gap scale Two spacing variables degree of correlation, be to establish that the relevance that a related coefficient both is embodied is strong and weak, and the coefficient is exhausted To value closer to 1, show that the relevance of the two is stronger, closer to 0, indicates weaker, related coefficient is based on product moment method It calculates, is equally to be multiplied by two deviations based on the deviation of two variables and respective average value to reflect phase between two variables Pass degree generally represents related coefficient with r.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the relevance obtained after the analysis of pearson correlation analytic approach is analyzed, The weaker parameter of relevance is subjected to secondary analysis using Spearman analytic approach.
After the above method, for the variable using different scale, the index for measuring its degree of correlation is different, For the degree of correlation between two spacing variables being quantified with gap scale, Pearson correlation coefficients measurement is generallyd use, and it is right Degree of correlation between two ordinal datas quantified with order scale, generallys use Spearman rank correlation coefficient to survey Amount.So carrying out secondary analysis after the relevance result obtained after the analysis of pearson correlation analytic approach is to guarantee variable Relationship between variable can be excavated thoroughly.
As a further improvement of the present invention, correlation coefficient r is provided in the pearson correlation analysis method, setting becomes Measuring x indicates the external environment factor, and setting variable y indicates the average value of corresponding traffic trip amount and variableAndRoot According to pearson correlation analysis method calculation formula it can be concluded thatThe Spearman phase It closes in analysis method and is provided with ordinal data degree of association parameter, and it is R that ordinal data degree of association parameter, which is arranged, and variable x is arranged Indicate the external environment factor, setting variable y indicate corresponding traffic trip amount and variable x incremental arrangement grade with it is corresponding The difference Di and number of samples n of variable y incremental arrangement grade, according to the calculation formula of Spearman correlation analysis method it can be concluded that
It, can be to some using the degree of association that the analysis method calculation formula of Spearman obtains after the above method Ordinal data is analyzed.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the model in the step 4 is multiple linear regression model, and with polynary Regression parameter fitting is carried out using least squares estimate based on linear regression model (LRM), forms traffic trip volume forecasting mould Type, wherein regression coefficient βiAnd regression constant β0Parameter fitting target component y=β is obtained by least square method01x1+ei,xiIndicate the sample data of factor X, yiIndicate factor Y's Sample data, ξ are random error.
After the above method, least square method is a kind of mathematical optimization techniques.It passes through square for minimizing error With the optimal function matching for finding data.Unknown data can be easily acquired using least square method, and these are asked The quadratic sum of error is minimum between the data and real data obtained.Pass through model and substitutes into external environment weather data come to friendship Through-current capacity is predicted.
Specific embodiment
The construction method includes the following steps: step 1, and external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data are carried out Initial data is obtained and obtains, initial data is handled and stored to database by step 2, step 3, according to data The biggish parameter of relevance is analyzed and obtained to the difference of data type in library using different being associated property of analysis method, walks Rapid four, Method Modeling is carried out using the biggish parameter combination algorithm of relevance, following magnitude of traffic flow is predicted.
A kind of core concept of traffic trip method for predicting is to establish database under the background obtained based on big data System, then data in Database Systems carry out analysis comparison, obtain the biggish factor of relevance, then carry out to these factors Modeling, is made prediction chart, the traffic trip flow at crossing where future can be thus speculated according to previous data, and Data acquiring mode mainly includes that business investigation, related system combing and related data obtain three parts content in step 1.Industry Business investigation is mainly unfolded in a manner of interview, is formed investigation scheme by discussion, is determined final demand.Related system combing is main It is based on road traffic flow real current situation, related data detail needed for listing prediction road traffic flow analysis combs out Road traffic flow related data information system.Related data, which obtains, mainly to be obtained from road traffic flow relevant information system Road traffic flow related data is taken, and arranges and forms road traffic flow data acquisition system.It is main that database is established in step 2 Based on computer hardware, it is divided into data acquisition, database design and the big step of Database three.Data acquisition: it is based on Road traffic flow related system exports data, and database is imported in the form of Excel, and the system of realization is docked with the artificial of library.Number It is designed according to library: using data derived from system as substrate, in conjunction with corresponding professional knowledge, corresponding table being carried out to database and is set Meter.Database: data and designed table are combined, and so that data is can be realized additions and deletions and is changed and are looked into, and realize database Foundation.
The external traffic data on flows includes capturing place, and bayonet title captures time, the ambient weather data packet Include the highest temperature, lowest temperature, weather, wind direction, wind-force.Above-mentioned data are possible property relevant with road traffic travel amount is influenced Data type is built by obtaining external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data etc. from channels such as traffic department, weather sites Modulus evidence.
By external traffic data on flows and ambient weather data respectively with obtain ambient weather data when it is corresponding in real time The magnitude of traffic flow carries out pearson correlation analysis, obtains correlation coefficient r related with the degree of association, the value range of correlation coefficient r Are as follows: -1≤r≤1, closer to 0 relevance weaker, positive and negative expression related direction stronger closer to ± 1 relevance are positive to indicate It is positively correlated, bearing indicates negatively correlated.Since the embodiment mode of relevance is varied, the status based on data, this project data was both It also include numeric type variable comprising classification type variable, therefore, with pearson correlation analysis and two kinds of sides of Spearman correlation analysis Method can be adapted to different types of variable format comprehensively, it is possible thereby to seek out the Main Factors for influencing the magnitude of traffic flow, realize information Feature identification provides data basis for traffic trip prediction.Pearson correlation coefficients r in pearson correlation analysis measures difference The degree of correlation of two spacing variables of carpenters square metrization is that establish the relevance that a related coefficient both is embodied strong Weak, for the absolute coefficient closer to 1, the relevance both shown is stronger, closer to 0, indicates weaker, related coefficient be by Product moment method calculates, and is equally to be multiplied by two deviations based on the deviation of two variables and respective average value to reflect two Degree of correlation between variable generally represents related coefficient with r.
The relevance obtained after the analysis of pearson correlation analytic approach is analyzed, the weaker parameter of relevance is used this Joseph Pearman analytic approach carries out secondary analysis.For the variable using different scale, the index for measuring its degree of correlation is different, For the degree of correlation between two spacing variables being quantified with gap scale, Pearson correlation coefficients measurement is generallyd use, and it is right Degree of correlation between two ordinal datas quantified with order scale, generallys use Spearman rank correlation coefficient to survey Amount.So carrying out secondary analysis after the relevance result obtained after the analysis of pearson correlation analytic approach is to guarantee variable Relationship between variable can be excavated thoroughly.
It is provided with ordinal data degree of association parameter in the Spearman correlation analysis method, and ordinal data pass is set Connection degree parameter is R, and setting variable x indicates the external environment factor, and setting variable y indicates corresponding traffic trip amount and variable x The difference Di and number of samples n of incremental arrangement grade and corresponding variable y incremental arrangement grade, according to Spearman correlation analysis side The calculation formula of method it can be concluded thatIt is obtained using the analysis method calculation formula of Spearman The degree of association some ordinal datas can be analyzed.Model in the step 4 is multiple linear regression model, and with Regression parameter fitting is carried out using least squares estimate based on multiple linear regression model, forms traffic trip volume forecasting Model, wherein regression coefficient βiAnd regression constant β0Parameter fitting target component y=β is obtained by least square method01x1+ ei,xiIndicate the sample data of factor X, yiIndicate factor Y's Sample data, ξ are random error.Least square method is a kind of mathematical optimization techniques.It is sought by minimizing the quadratic sum of error The optimal function of data is looked for match.Unknown data can be easily acquired using least square method, and these are acquired The quadratic sum of error is minimum between data and real data.Pass through model and substitutes into external environment weather data come to traffic flow Amount is predicted.

Claims (7)

1. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting, it is characterised in that: the construction method includes the following steps: step 1, will External traffic data on flows and ambient weather data are obtained and are obtained initial data, respectively obtain quantization using initial data Rear ambient weather parameter and corresponding traffic flow parameter, step 2 join ambient weather in real time with ambient weather parameter It is several to be handled and stored to database with traffic flow parameter, step 3, according to the difference of the data type in database It is analyzed using different being associated property of analysis method and obtains the biggish parameter of relevance, step 4 is larger using relevance Parameter combination algorithm carry out Method Modeling, following magnitude of traffic flow is predicted.
2. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the external traffic flow Data include capturing place, and bayonet title captures the time, and the ambient weather data include the highest temperature, lowest temperature, weather, wind To wind-force.
3. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: by external traffic flow number Accordingly and ambient weather data carry out pearson correlation point with Real-Time Traffic Volume corresponding when obtaining ambient weather data respectively Analysis, obtains correlation coefficient r related with the degree of association, the value range of correlation coefficient r are as follows: -1≤r≤1, closer to ± 1 association Property stronger, positive and negative expression related direction weaker closer to 0 relevance, positive to indicate to be positively correlated, bearing indicates negatively correlated.
4. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: analyze pearson correlation The relevance obtained after method analysis is analyzed, and the weaker parameter of relevance is carried out secondary point using Spearman analytic approach Analysis.
5. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: the pearson correlation point Correlation coefficient r is provided in analysis method, setting variable x indicates the external environment factor, and setting variable y indicates corresponding traffic trip The average value of amount and variableAndAccording to the calculation formula of pearson correlation analysis method it can be concluded that
6. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting according to claim 5, it is characterised in that: the Spearman is related Ordinal data degree of association parameter is provided in analysis method, and it is R that ordinal data degree of association parameter, which is arranged, and variable x table is arranged Show the external environment factor, setting variable y indicates corresponding traffic trip amount and variable x incremental arrangement grade and corresponding change Measure y incremental arrangement grade difference Di and number of samples n, according to the calculation formula of Spearman correlation analysis method it can be concluded that
7. a kind of traffic trip method for predicting according to claim 6, it is characterised in that: the mould in the step 4 Type is multiple linear regression model, and carries out regression parameter using least squares estimate based on multiple linear regression model Fitting forms traffic trip flux prediction model, wherein regression coefficient βiAnd regression constant β0Parameter fitting by least square Method obtains target component y=β01x1+ei,xiIndicate because The sample data of sub- X, yiIndicate the sample data of factor Y, ξ is random error.
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CN110517481A (en) * 2019-07-26 2019-11-29 厦门卫星定位应用股份有限公司 Vehicle flowrate prediction technique, medium, equipment and device
CN110751102A (en) * 2019-10-22 2020-02-04 天津财经大学 Kyojin Ji three-ground airport passenger flow correlation analysis method and device
CN110751102B (en) * 2019-10-22 2023-12-22 天津财经大学 Beijing Ji three-place airport passenger flow correlation analysis method and device
CN110728841A (en) * 2019-10-23 2020-01-24 江苏广宇协同科技发展研究院有限公司 Traffic flow acquisition method, device and system based on vehicle-road cooperation
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CN113554213A (en) * 2021-06-11 2021-10-26 国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司电力科学研究院 Natural gas demand prediction method, system, storage medium and equipment
CN115242663A (en) * 2022-07-29 2022-10-25 西安电子科技大学 Virtual network flow prediction method based on time correlation diagram convolution
CN115909748A (en) * 2023-01-07 2023-04-04 深圳市城市交通规划设计研究中心股份有限公司 Festival and holiday road traffic volume prediction method, electronic device and storage medium
CN117408393A (en) * 2023-12-06 2024-01-16 华中科技大学 Prediction method and system for comprehensive passenger transportation hub traffic flow under abnormal event
CN117408393B (en) * 2023-12-06 2024-03-19 华中科技大学 Prediction method and system for comprehensive passenger transportation hub traffic flow under abnormal event

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