CN109064062B - User-side comprehensive energy system operation risk assessment method considering multi-energy coupling interaction - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the running risk of a user-side comprehensive energy system by considering multi-energy coupling interaction, which adopts Monte Carlo method simulation, comprehensively considers the energy supply and the demand of the user-side comprehensive energy system and establishes a collaborative analysis model of the user-side comprehensive energy interaction system; calculating the operation risk evaluation index of the comprehensive energy system at the user side by combining the outage rate parameters of each energy transmission and conversion element; the method can more accurately evaluate the operation risk of the user side comprehensive energy system, and can improve the flexibility and the safety and the stability of the user side energy utilization strategy.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power systems, and relates to a method for evaluating operation risks of a user-side comprehensive energy system by considering multi-energy coupling interaction.
Background
With the advance of the reformation process of the electric power market, the comprehensive energy system becomes an important trend of future energy development. Compared with the traditional power distribution network function mode, the user side comprehensive energy system can provide various energy sources such as electricity, heat, cold and gas for the user, and the flexibility of the user side energy utilization strategy is improved by utilizing the bidirectional interaction potential of different energy sources. However, the complex energy conversion mechanism of the user-side integrated energy system brings risks to safe and stable power supply, and the conventional power system risk assessment method cannot meet the requirements, so that a user-side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method considering multi-energy coupling interaction is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for evaluating the operation risk of a comprehensive energy system at a user side by considering multi-energy coupling interaction, which considers the influence of the coupling interaction relation of various energy sources on the transmission and conversion on the system and can more accurately evaluate the operation risk of the comprehensive energy system at the user side.
Therefore, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a user side comprehensive energy system operation risk assessment method considering multi-energy coupling interaction adopts Monte Carlo method simulation, and comprises the following steps:
step 1, initializing energy supply and demand of a user side comprehensive energy system, and establishing a user side comprehensive energy interaction system collaborative analysis model;
step 2, initializing shutdown rate parameters of all elements of the comprehensive energy system;
step 3, randomly generating real-time states of all elements according to the shutdown rate parameters of all energy transmission and conversion elements;
step 4, updating the energy transmission/transformation matrix parameters based on the real-time states of all the elements;
step 5, calculating an operation risk evaluation index of the user-side comprehensive energy system;
and 6, judging whether the risk assessment index meets the convergence condition, if not, returning to the step 3, and if so, ending and outputting the risk assessment index value.
In the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the integrated energy system at the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the supply of the integrated energy system in step 1 can be obtained by a system day-ahead and day-time scheduling plan; the demand of the comprehensive energy system can be obtained through load prediction; the implementation of step 1 comprises:
the user-side comprehensive energy interaction system collaborative analysis model fully considers the coupling interaction relation of the comprehensive energy system in transmission and conversion of various energy sources. The user-side comprehensive energy system adopts an energy hub model, and the specific description of the model is as follows:
(1) in the formula, Le、Lh、Lc、LgRespectively representing the requirements of electricity, heat, cold and gas of a user; pe、Ph、Pc、PgRespectively representing the supply of electricity, heat, cold and gas of the comprehensive energy system; v represents the distribution coefficient of the energy, eta represents the transmission/conversion efficiency of the system energy, the subscripts of the two represent the transmission and conversion direction of the energy, such as ee represents the electric energy for the electric load, eh represents the electric energy for the heating, ec represents the electric energy for the refrigeration, eg represents the electric energy for the natural gas production, and gh represents the natural gas for the heating. Other energy conversion modes from low-grade energy (heat and cold) to high-grade energy (electricity and gas), such as the mode of converting he heat energy into electric energy, the mode of converting hg heat energy into natural gas, and the mode of converting ce and cg, have extremely low efficiency or are difficult to realize technically, so the energy conversion modes are not considered in the user-side integrated energy interaction system, and the energy distribution coefficients and the energy transmission/conversion efficiency are set to be 0. Using electric energy for heating, vehExpressing the distribution coefficient, eta, of heat energy converted from electric energyehEnergy efficiency ratio representing system integrated electric heating:
(2) in the formula QiThe input electric quantity of the ith electric heating equipment is represented, and K represents the total number of electric-to-heat equipment, including an air conditioner, a heat pump, a thermoelectric unit and the like. The other subscripts are calculated similarly.
In the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the integrated energy system at the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the outage rate parameter of the integrated energy system component in step 2 can be obtained from historical statistical data;
in the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the user-side integrated energy system considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the step 3 can be implemented by generating the real-time state (normal and shutdown) of the element according to the component shutdown rate through a computer;
in the above method for assessing the operational risk of the user-side integrated energy system considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the step 4 is implemented by:
in the method for evaluating the risk of the integrated energy system, the considered risk evaluation period is short, the distribution coefficient v is kept unchanged, the energy transmission/conversion efficiency eta is related to the real-time state of the integrated energy system equipment, and the expected energy transmission/conversion efficiency at a certain moment is calculated by taking the electricity-heat conversion efficiency as an example:
(3) in the formula piRepresenting the probability of the shutdown of the ith electric heating equipment; n represents the number of electric heating equipment outages;
in the above method for evaluating operation risk of a user-side integrated energy system considering multi-energy coupling interaction, the operation risk evaluation index in step 5 includes: the electric load loss, the heat load loss, the cold load loss and the air load loss.
In the above method for assessing operational risk of a user-side integrated energy system considering multi-energy coupling interaction, step 5 includes:
based on the updated energy transmission/conversion matrix in the step 4 and an energy supply matrix of the user-side comprehensive energy system, calculating by the following formula:
(4) in the formula, Le'、Lh'、Lc'、Lg' actual supply amounts of electricity, heat, cold, and gas to the user, respectively; eta' represents the integrated energy transmission/conversion efficiency of the system in the real-time state.
The calculation method of the four indexes of the electric load loss, the heat load loss, the cold load loss and the air load loss is as follows:
wherein L isx=Le,Lh,Lc,Lg。
In the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the integrated energy system at the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the convergence condition in step 6 is:
wherein M represents the number of cycles of step 3 to step 6; e (Δ L)x) Represents Δ LxThe mean value of (a); σ (Δ L)x) Represents Δ LxStandard deviation of (2).
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method is an evaluation method which fully considers the influence of user behaviors on the operation risk of the comprehensive energy system under the background of the multi-energy coupling interaction relationship of the comprehensive energy system at the user side; the operation risk assessment method considers the influence of the coupling interaction relation of various energy sources on transmission and conversion on the system, can more accurately assess the operation risk of the user side comprehensive energy system, and can improve the flexibility and the safety and the stability of the user side energy utilization strategy.
Detailed Description
The invention relates to a method for evaluating the operation risk of a comprehensive energy system at a user side by considering multi-energy coupling interaction, which adopts Monte Carlo method simulation and comprises the following steps:
step 1, initializing energy supply and demand of a user side comprehensive energy system, and establishing a user side comprehensive energy interaction system collaborative analysis model;
step 2, initializing shutdown rate parameters of all elements of the comprehensive energy system;
step 3, randomly generating real-time states of all elements according to the shutdown rate parameters of all energy transmission and conversion elements;
step 4, updating the energy transmission/transformation matrix parameters based on the real-time states of all the elements;
step 5, calculating an operation risk evaluation index of the user-side comprehensive energy system;
and 6, judging whether the risk assessment index meets the convergence condition, if not, returning to the step 3, and if so, ending and outputting the risk assessment index value.
In the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the integrated energy system at the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the supply of the integrated energy system in step 1 can be obtained by a system day-ahead and day-time scheduling plan; the demand of the comprehensive energy system can be obtained through load prediction; the implementation of step 1 comprises:
the user-side comprehensive energy interaction system collaborative analysis model fully considers the coupling interaction relation of the comprehensive energy system in transmission and conversion of various energy sources. The user-side comprehensive energy system adopts an energy hub model, and the specific description of the model is as follows:
(1) in the formula, Le、Lh、Lc、LgRespectively representing the requirements of electricity, heat, cold and gas of a user; pe、Ph、Pc、PgRespectively representing the supply of electricity, heat, cold and gas of the comprehensive energy system; v represents the distribution coefficient of the energy, eta represents the transmission/conversion efficiency of the system energy, the subscripts of the two represent the transmission and conversion direction of the energy, such as ee represents the electric energy for the electric load, eh represents the electric energy for the heating, ec represents the electric energy for the refrigeration, eg represents the electric energy for the natural gas production, and gh represents the natural gas for the heating. Other forms of conversion from low-grade energy (hot, cold) to high-grade energy (electricity, gas), such as he heat energy for generating electric energy, hg heat energy for generating natural gas, ce, cg energy conversion, are extremely inefficient or technically difficult to implement, and therefore are not considered in the user-side integrated energy interactive system according to the present invention, and these energy distribution coefficients and energy transmission/conversion efficiencies are set to 0. Using electric energy for heating, vehExpressing the distribution coefficient, eta, of heat energy converted from electric energyehEnergy efficiency ratio representing system integrated electric heating:
(2) in the formula QiThe input electric quantity of the ith electric heating equipment is represented, and K represents the total number of electric-to-heat equipment, including an air conditioner, a heat pump, a thermoelectric unit and the like.
In the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the integrated energy system at the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the outage rate parameter of the integrated energy system component in step 2 can be obtained from historical statistical data;
in the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the user-side integrated energy system considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the step 3 can be implemented by generating the real-time state (normal and shutdown) of the element according to the component shutdown rate through a computer;
in the above method for assessing the operational risk of the user-side integrated energy system considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the step 4 is implemented by:
in the method for evaluating the risk of the integrated energy system, the considered risk evaluation period is short, the distribution coefficient v is kept unchanged, the energy transmission/conversion efficiency eta is related to the real-time state of the integrated energy system equipment, and the expected energy transmission/conversion efficiency at a certain moment is calculated by taking the electricity-heat conversion efficiency as an example:
(3) in the formula piRepresenting the probability of the shutdown of the ith electric heating equipment; n represents the number of electric heating equipment outages;
in the above method for evaluating operation risk of a user-side integrated energy system considering multi-energy coupling interaction, the operation risk evaluation index in step 5 includes: the electric load loss, the heat load loss, the cold load loss and the air load loss.
In the above method for assessing operational risk of a user-side integrated energy system considering multi-energy coupling interaction, step 5 includes:
based on the updated energy transmission/conversion matrix in the step 4 and an energy supply matrix of the user-side comprehensive energy system, calculating by the following formula:
(4) in the formula, Le'、Lh'、Lc'、Lg' actual supply amounts of electricity, heat, cold, and gas to the user, respectively; eta' represents the integrated energy transmission/conversion efficiency of the system in the real-time state.
The calculation method of the four indexes of the electric load loss, the heat load loss, the cold load loss and the air load loss is as follows:
wherein L isx=Le,Lh,Lc,Lg。
In the above method for evaluating the operation risk of the integrated energy system at the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction, the convergence condition in step 6 is:
wherein M represents the number of cycles of step 3 to step 6; e (Δ L)x) Represents Δ LxThe mean value of (a); σ (Δ L)x) Represents Δ LxStandard deviation of (2).
Claims (4)
1. A user-side comprehensive energy system operation risk assessment method considering multi-energy coupling interaction is characterized in that the method adopts Monte Carlo method simulation, and comprises the following steps:
step 1, initializing energy supply and demand of a user side comprehensive energy system, and establishing a user side comprehensive energy interaction system collaborative analysis model;
step 2, initializing shutdown rate parameters of all elements of the comprehensive energy system;
step 3, randomly generating real-time states of all elements according to the shutdown rate parameters of all energy transmission and conversion elements;
step 4, updating the energy transmission/transformation matrix parameters based on the real-time states of all the elements;
step 5, calculating an operation risk evaluation index of the user-side comprehensive energy system;
step 6, judging whether the risk assessment index meets the convergence condition, if not, returning to the step 3, and if so, ending and outputting a risk assessment index value;
the step 1 specifically comprises the following steps: initializing energy supply of the comprehensive energy system at the user side according to the day-ahead and day-time scheduling plans of the system, and initializing the demand of the comprehensive energy system through load prediction; the method comprises the following steps of taking coupling interaction relation of the comprehensive energy system in transmission and conversion of various energy sources into full consideration, establishing a user side comprehensive energy interaction system collaborative analysis model, wherein the user side comprehensive energy system adopts an energy hub model, and the model is specifically described as follows:
(1) in the formula, Le、Lh、Lc、LgRespectively representing the requirements of electricity, heat, cold and gas of a user; pe、Ph、Pc、PgRespectively representing the supply of electricity, heat, cold and gas of the comprehensive energy system; v represents the distribution coefficient of the energy, eta represents the energy transmission/conversion efficiency of the system, subscripts of the two represent the transmission conversion direction of the energy, and the conversion form from low-grade energy heat, cold to high-grade energy electricity and gas is not considered in the system because the efficiency is extremely low or is difficult to realize technically, and the application energy distribution coefficient and the energy transmission/conversion efficiency are set to be 0; using electric energy for heating, vehExpressing the distribution coefficient, eta, of heat energy converted from electric energyehEnergy efficiency ratio representing system integrated electric heating:
(2) in the formula QiThe input electric quantity of the ith electric heating equipment is represented, and K represents the total number of the electric-to-heat equipment; the rest subscripts are calculated in the same way;
the operation risk assessment index in step 5 comprises: the method comprises four indexes of electric load loss, heat load loss, cold load loss and air load loss;
based on the updated energy transmission/conversion matrix in the step 4 and an energy supply matrix of the user-side comprehensive energy system, calculating by the following formula:
(4) in the formula, Le'、Lh'、Lc'、Lg' actual supply amounts of electricity, heat, cold, and gas to the user, respectively; η' represents the desired overall energy transfer/conversion efficiency of the system at this real-time state;
four indexes of electric load loss, heat load loss, cold load loss and air load loss Delta LxThe calculation method of (2) is as follows:
wherein L isx=Le,Lh,Lc,Lg。
2. The method for assessing operational risk of an integrated energy system on a user side considering multi-energy coupling interaction as claimed in claim 1, wherein the outage rate parameter of the integrated energy system component of step 2 is obtained from historical statistical data.
3. The method for assessing operational risk of a comprehensive energy system on the user side considering the multi-energy coupling interaction as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 4 is implemented as follows: for a certain energy transmission and conversion direction, the distribution coefficient v is kept unchanged, the energy transmission/conversion efficiency eta is related to the real-time state of the integrated energy system equipment, and the expected energy transmission/conversion efficiency at a certain moment is calculated by taking the electricity-heat conversion efficiency as an example:
(3) in the formula piRepresenting the probability of the shutdown of the ith electric heating equipment; n represents the number of electric heating apparatus stoppages.
4. The method for assessing risk of operation of a comprehensive energy system on a user side considering multi-energy coupling interaction according to claim 1, wherein the convergence condition in step 6 is:
wherein M represents the number of times steps 3 to 6 have been cycled; e (Δ L)x) Represents each load loss Δ LxThe mean value of (a); σ (Δ L)x) Represents Δ LxStandard deviation of (2).
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