CN109064062A - A kind of user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method considering multipotency coupling interaction - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment methods of consideration multipotency coupling interaction, this method uses monte carlo method analog simulation, energy resource supply, the demand for having comprehensively considered user side integrated energy system establish user side comprehensive energy interaction systems Cooperative Analysis model；And each energy transmission, conversion original part outage rate parameter are combined, calculate the operation risk assessment index of user side integrated energy system；This method can more accurately assess user side integrated energy system operation risk, and flexibility and the security and stability of user side energy strategy can be improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to technical field of power systems, are related to a kind of user side comprehensive energy system of consideration multipotency coupling interaction
System operation risk assessment method.
Background technique
With the propulsion of power market reform process, integrated energy system becomes the important trend of future source of energy development.Phase
Than in traditional power distribution network functional mode, user side integrated energy system can provide a variety of energy such as electric, hot, cold, gas for user
Source, and the tactful flexibility of user side energy is improved using the two-way interaction potentiality of different energy sources.However, user side integrates energy
The energy conversion mechanism of source system complex is that safety and stability power supply brings risk, and conventional Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method is not
It is able to satisfy demand, to need a kind of user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of consideration multipotency coupling interaction.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of user side integrated energy system operation risks of consideration multipotency coupling interaction to comment
Estimate method, that takes into account coupling interactive relation of the various energy resources in transmission, conversion to influence on system bring, can be more acurrate
Ground is assessed by user side integrated energy system operation risk.
For this purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that:
A kind of user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method considering multipotency coupling interaction, method are special using covering
Carlow method analog simulation, step include:
Step 1, the energy resource supply of initialising subscriber side integrated energy system, demand establish the interaction of user side comprehensive energy
Systematic collaboration analysis model；
Step 2, initialization each element outage rate parameter of integrated energy system；
Step 3, according to each energy transmission, conversion elements outage rate parameter, generate each element real-time status at random；
Step 4 is based on each element real-time status, updates energy transmission/transformed matrix parameter；
Step 5, the operation risk assessment index for calculating user side integrated energy system；
Step 6 determines whether risk assessment index meets the condition of convergence, if it is not, return step 3, if so, terminating and exporting
Risk assessment index value.
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 1 institute
State integrated energy system supply can by system a few days ago, in the daytime operation plan and obtain；The demand of integrated energy system can be by negative
Lotus is predicted and obtains；The realization of step 1 includes:
The user side comprehensive energy interaction systems Cooperative Analysis model, should fully take into account integrated energy system a variety of
Energy source, conversion coupling interactive relation.The user side integrated energy system uses energy hub model, the tool of the model
Body description are as follows:
(1) in formula, Le、Lh、Lc、LgRespectively indicate that user is electric, hot, cold, gas demand；Pe、Ph、Pc、PgRespectively indicate synthesis
Energy resource system is electric, hot, cold, gas supply；V indicates that the distribution coefficient with energy, η indicate system capacity transmission/transfer efficiency, the two
Subscript indicate the transmission conversion direction of the energy, as ee indicates that electric energy indicates that electric energy is used for heat supply, ec table for electric load, eh
Show that electric energy is used to freeze, eg indicates electric energy for generating natural gas, gh expression natural gas for heating.Other are by low-grade energy
(hot, cold) to the transition form of high-grade energy (electricity, gas), such as he thermal energy is for producing electricl energy, hg thermal energy is used to generate day
The energy conversion mode of right gas and ce, cg, efficiency is extremely low or is technically difficult to realize, so according to the present invention
It is not considered in user side comprehensive energy interaction systems, these are set as with energy distribution coefficient and energy source/transfer efficiency
0.By taking electric energy is for heat supply as an example, vehIndicate the distribution coefficient of electric energy conversion thermal energy, ηehThe efficiency of the comprehensive electricity heating of expression system
Than:
(2) Q in formulaiThe input electricity of i-th of expression electric heating equipment, K indicate that the hot equipment of electricity turn is total, including air-conditioning,
Heat pump, thermoelectricity unit etc..Other subscripts similarly calculate.
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 2 institute
The integrated energy system element outage rate parameter stated can be obtained by historical statistical data；
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 3
Realizing can be by computer according to the element outage rate, producing element real-time status (normal, stoppage in transit)；
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 4
Realization includes:
Since in integrated energy system methods of risk assessment of the present invention, the risk assessment period of consideration is short, point
Distribution coefficient v is remained unchanged, and energy transmission/transformation efficiency η is related with integrated energy system equipment real-time status, is converted with electric-thermal
Expectation energy source/the transfer efficiency at certain moment is calculated for efficiency:
(3) p in formulaiIndicate the probability that i-th of electric heating equipment is stopped transport；N indicates the quantity that electric heating equipment is stopped transport；
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 5 institute
The operation risk assessment index stated includes: electric load loss, thermic load loss, refrigeration duty loss and gas load loss four fingers
Mark.
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 5 packet
It includes:
Based on the energy resource supply of energy transmission/transformed matrix and user side integrated energy system after being updated described in step 4
Matrix is calculate by the following formula:
(4) in formula, Le'、Lh'、Lc'、Lg' respectively indicate that user is electric, hot, cold, gas effective supply amount；η ' indicates the reality
When state under system complex energy transmission/transfer efficiency.
Electric load loss, thermic load loss, refrigeration duty loss and four index calculating methods of gas load loss are as follows:
Wherein Lx=Le,Lh,Lc,Lg。
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 6 institute
The condition of convergence stated are as follows:
In formula, M indicates the number of step 3- step 6 circulation；E(ΔLx) indicate Δ LxMean value；σ(ΔLx) indicate Δ Lx
Standard deviation.
The device have the advantages that as follows:
Method of the invention is a kind of in the case where user side integrated energy system multipotency couples interactive relation background, is fully considered
The appraisal procedure that user behavior influences integrated energy system operation risk；Operation risk assessment method of the invention considers more
Coupling interactive relation of the kind energy in transmission, conversion influences system bring, can be more accurately to the comprehensive energy of user side
Source system operation risk is assessed, and flexibility and the security and stability of user side energy strategy can be improved.
Specific embodiment
The user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method for considering multipotency coupling interaction of the invention, method use
Monte carlo method analog simulation, step include:
Step 1, the energy resource supply of initialising subscriber side integrated energy system, demand establish the interaction of user side comprehensive energy
Systematic collaboration analysis model；
Step 2, initialization each element outage rate parameter of integrated energy system；
Step 3, according to each energy transmission, conversion elements outage rate parameter, generate each element real-time status at random；
Step 4 is based on each element real-time status, updates energy transmission/transformed matrix parameter；
Step 5, the operation risk assessment index for calculating user side integrated energy system；
Step 6 determines whether risk assessment index meets the condition of convergence, if it is not, return step 3, if so, terminating and exporting
Risk assessment index value.
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 1 institute
State integrated energy system supply can by system a few days ago, in the daytime operation plan and obtain；The demand of integrated energy system can be by negative
Lotus is predicted and obtains；The realization of step 1 includes:
The user side comprehensive energy interaction systems Cooperative Analysis model, should fully take into account integrated energy system a variety of
Energy source, conversion coupling interactive relation.The user side integrated energy system uses energy hub model, the tool of the model
Body description are as follows:
(1) in formula, Le、Lh、Lc、LgRespectively indicate that user is electric, hot, cold, gas demand；Pe、Ph、Pc、PgRespectively indicate synthesis
Energy resource system is electric, hot, cold, gas supply；V indicates that the distribution coefficient with energy, η indicate system capacity transmission/transfer efficiency, the two
Subscript indicate the transmission conversion direction of the energy, as ee indicates that electric energy indicates that electric energy is used for heat supply, ec table for electric load, eh
Show that electric energy is used to freeze, eg indicates electric energy for generating natural gas, gh expression natural gas for heating.Other are by low-grade energy
(hot, cold) to the transition form of high-grade energy (electricity, gas), such as he thermal energy is for producing electricl energy, hg thermal energy is used to generate day
Right gas, ce, cg energy conversion mode, efficiency is extremely low or is technically difficult to realize, so in user according to the present invention
It is not considered in the comprehensive energy interaction systems of side, these are set as 0 with energy distribution coefficient and energy source/transfer efficiency.With electricity
It can be used for for heat supply, vehIndicate the distribution coefficient of electric energy conversion thermal energy, ηehThe Energy Efficiency Ratio of the comprehensive electricity heating of expression system:
(2) Q in formulaiThe input electricity of i-th of expression electric heating equipment, K indicate that the hot equipment of electricity turn is total, including air-conditioning,
Heat pump, thermoelectricity unit etc..
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 2 institute
The integrated energy system element outage rate parameter stated can be obtained by historical statistical data；
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 3
Realizing can be by computer according to the element outage rate, producing element real-time status (normal, stoppage in transit)；
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 4
Realization includes:
Since in integrated energy system methods of risk assessment of the present invention, the risk assessment period of consideration is short, point
Distribution coefficient v is remained unchanged, and energy transmission/transformation efficiency η is related with integrated energy system equipment real-time status, is converted with electric-thermal
Expectation energy source/the transfer efficiency at certain moment is calculated for efficiency:
(3) p in formulaiIndicate the probability that i-th of electric heating equipment is stopped transport；N indicates the quantity that electric heating equipment is stopped transport；
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 5 institute
The operation risk assessment index stated includes: electric load loss, thermic load loss, refrigeration duty loss and gas load loss four fingers
Mark.
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 5 packet
It includes:
Based on the energy resource supply of energy transmission/transformed matrix and user side integrated energy system after being updated described in step 4
Matrix is calculate by the following formula:
(4) in formula, Le'、Lh'、Lc'、Lg' respectively indicate that user is electric, hot, cold, gas effective supply amount；η ' indicates the reality
When state under system complex energy transmission/transfer efficiency.
Electric load loss, thermic load loss, refrigeration duty loss and four index calculating methods of gas load loss are as follows:
Wherein Lx=Le,Lh,Lc,Lg。
In the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method of above-mentioned consideration multipotency coupling interaction, step 6 institute
The condition of convergence stated are as follows:
In formula, M indicates the number of step 3- step 6 circulation；E(ΔLx) indicate Δ LxMean value；σ(ΔLx) indicate Δ Lx
Standard deviation.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment method for considering multipotency coupling interaction, which is characterized in that should
Method uses monte carlo method analog simulation, and step includes:
Step 1, the energy resource supply of initialising subscriber side integrated energy system, demand, establish user side comprehensive energy interaction systems
Cooperative Analysis model；
Step 2, initialization each element outage rate parameter of integrated energy system；
Step 3, according to each energy transmission, conversion elements outage rate parameter, generate each element real-time status at random；
Step 4 is based on each element real-time status, updates energy transmission/transformed matrix parameter；
Step 5, the operation risk assessment index for calculating user side integrated energy system；
Step 6 determines whether risk assessment index meets the condition of convergence, if it is not, return step 3, if so, terminating and exporting risk
Evaluation index numerical value.
2. the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment side according to claim 1 for considering multipotency coupling interaction
Method, which is characterized in that step 1 specifically: according to system a few days ago, operation plan initialising subscriber side integrated energy system in the daytime
Energy resource supply, pass through load prediction initialize integrated energy system demand；Integrated energy system is fully taken into account a variety of
Energy source, conversion coupling interactive relation, establish user side comprehensive energy interaction systems Cooperative Analysis model, the user side is comprehensive
It closes energy resource system and uses energy hub model, the specific descriptions of the model are as follows:
(1) in formula, Le、Lh、Lc、LgRespectively indicate that user is electric, hot, cold, gas demand；Pe、Ph、Pc、PgRespectively indicate comprehensive energy
System is electric, hot, cold, gas supply；V indicate with can distribution coefficient, η indicates system capacity transmission/transfer efficiency, under the two
Mark indicates the transmission conversion direction of the energy, from low-grade energy (heat, cold) to the transition form of high-grade energy (electricity, gas) because
Efficiency is extremely low or is technically difficult to realize, does not consider in the present system, to application can distribution coefficient and energy source/
Transfer efficiency is set as 0；By taking electric energy is for heat supply as an example, vehIndicate the distribution coefficient of electric energy conversion thermal energy, ηehExpression system is comprehensive
The Energy Efficiency Ratio of electricity heating:
(2) Q in formulaiIndicate that the input electricity of i-th of electric heating equipment, K indicate that electricity turns hot equipment sum；Remaining subscript is similarly
It calculates.
3. the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment side according to claim 1 for considering multipotency coupling interaction
Method, which is characterized in that integrated energy system element outage rate parameter described in step 2 is obtained by historical statistical data.
4. the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment side according to claim 1 for considering multipotency coupling interaction
Method, which is characterized in that step 4 is accomplished by for a certain energy source conversion direction, and distribution coefficient v is remained unchanged,
Energy transmission/transformation efficiency η is related with integrated energy system equipment real-time status, calculates some time by taking electric-thermal transfer efficiency as an example
Expectation energy source/the transfer efficiency at quarter:
(3) p in formulaiIndicate the probability that i-th of electric heating equipment is stopped transport；N indicates the quantity that electric heating equipment is stopped transport.
5. the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment side according to claim 1 for considering multipotency coupling interaction
Method, which is characterized in that operation risk assessment index described in step 5 includes: electric load loss, thermic load loss, refrigeration duty damage
Mistake and four indexs of gas load loss；
Based on the energy resource supply square of energy transmission/transformed matrix and user side integrated energy system after being updated described in step 4
Battle array, is calculate by the following formula:
(4) in formula, Le'、Lh'、Lc'、Lg' respectively indicate that user is electric, hot, cold, gas effective supply amount；η ' indicates the real-time status
The lower desired complex energy transmission/transfer efficiency of system；
Electric load loss, thermic load loss, refrigeration duty loss and four index Δ L of gas load lossxCalculation method it is as follows:
Wherein Lx=Le,Lh,Lc,Lg。
6. the user side integrated energy system operation risk assessment side according to claim 5 for considering multipotency coupling interaction
Method, which is characterized in that the condition of convergence described in step 6 are as follows:
In formula, M indicates the number that step 3- step 6 has recycled；E(ΔLx) indicate each load loss Δ LxMean value；σ(ΔLx)
Indicate Δ LxStandard deviation.
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| CN109494816A (en) * | 2018-12-28 | 2019-03-19 | 清华-伯克利深圳学院筹备办公室 | The methods of risk assessment and device of the multipotency streaming system of electric-thermal coupling |
| CN109993445A (en) * | 2019-04-04 | 2019-07-09 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of integrated energy system vulnerability assessment method considering photovoltaic prediction error |
| CN110288411A (en) * | 2019-07-23 | 2019-09-27 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | A kind of information integration architecting method of integrated energy system |
| CN110390476A (en) * | 2019-07-10 | 2019-10-29 | 浙江大学 | A kind of operational reliability improvement method of the self scheduling of comprehensive energy equipment |
| CN111242406A (en) * | 2019-11-29 | 2020-06-05 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司 | User-side energy supply interruption risk processing method of comprehensive energy interaction system |
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