CN109003010A - The evaluation method of power grid project investment benefit - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of evaluation assessment methods of power grid project investment benefit, including project to be evaluated is classified；Construct assessment indicator system；It establishes the graph model of index and is quantified；The index weights of index graph model after calculating quantization；Carry out quantization and nondimensionalization respectively to index；Comprehensive grade model is constructed, to evaluate returns of investment.The evaluation assessment method of this power grid project investment benefit provided by the invention, construct the assessment indicator system for considering item-function feature, graph model target weight method is proposed simultaneously, pass through Rating Model, power grid project is obtained by the differentiation evaluation result of function classification, therefore the method for the present invention scientifically and rationally can carry out benefit evaluation to power grid project investment, it is capable of the returns of investment of relatively accurate and quicklook reflection different function project, and the method for the present invention science is reliable, and calculating process is simple and clear.
Description
Technical field
Present invention relates particularly to a kind of evaluation assessment methods of power grid project investment benefit.
Background technique
With the development and the improvement of people's living standards of national economy technology, electric energy have become people production and
Essential secondary energy sources in life, endless convenience is brought to people's production and life.
Currently, China's power grid scale gradually expands, voltage class is stepped up, the planning of power transmission network project gradually
In construction, and project construction investment of transmitting electricity usually haves the characteristics that scale is big, payoff period is long.In face of huge and rapid growth
Investment Trend, consider to carry out analysis of Investment Benefit by function classification to operation project, the expected mesh of the project of operation can be confirmed
Whether mark reaches, and whether primary benefits index is realized, while the hair of disparity items function is analyzed from the level of power grid enterprises
Situation is waved, instructs power grid precisely to invest with this, is offered reference for construction similar projects from now on, for promoting power grid fining pipe
Reason level has important practical significance.
In recent years, the research of power grid project investment benefit is imitated only for single project or certain class special item launched investment
The evaluation of benefit；In addition, the object of research focuses primarily upon the research of evaluation index and index weights.But at present for investment
The research of benefit, goal in research is single, and the factor considered when evaluating investment results is less.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of electricity that benefit evaluation can be scientifically and rationally carried out to power grid project investment
The evaluation assessment method of net project investment benefit.
The evaluation assessment method of this power grid project investment benefit provided by the invention, includes the following steps:
S1. project to be evaluated is classified；
S2. according to the classification results of step S1, assessment indicator system is constructed；
S3. the assessment indicator system constructed according to step S2, establishes the graph model of index and is quantified；
S4. the index weights of the index graph model after the quantization that step S3 is obtained are calculated；
S5. quantization and nondimensionalization are carried out respectively to the index that step S2 is obtained；
S6. the index weights obtained according to the obtained index of step S5 and step S4 construct comprehensive grade model, thus
Returns of investment are evaluated.
Classify described in step S1 to project to be evaluated, project is specially pressed into voltage class and item-function
Classification, the voltage class include 500 (750) kV, 220 (330) kV, 110 (66) kV and 35 kilovolts and following；It is described
Item-function include meet load supply, power supply send out, ferroelectric power supply, substation it is mating send out, reinforce rack engineering.
Building assessment indicator system described in step S2 specially constructs assessment indicator system referring to analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Building assessment indicator system, specifically comprises the following steps: described in step S2
A. using the returns of investment of project to be evaluated as target, related index will be evaluated with power grid Project Benefit and be divided into one
Grade indicator layer and two-level index layer are established using returns of investment as the three-decker of target；
B. load supply such as met according to the item-function in step S1, promote safety, promotion power supply quality, satisfaction
Social policy etc. establishes first class index layer in terms of 4, and respectively raising power supply capacity, improvement power supply quality, promotion is economical
Benefit meets social environment policy；
C. it using the first class index layer established in evaluation procedure B as target, is established respectively for 4 first class index corresponding
Two-level index.
The graph model of index is established described in step S3 and is quantified, and specially establishes index using following steps
Graph model simultaneously quantifies:
A. there are N number of index and M estimator, while the scoring of each index is α points of systems, then obtains using following formula
The scoring vector of estimator m
Z is scoring of k-th of estimator to index k in formula；For the scoring vector of single estimator, l is the scoring
The length of vector；N and M is natural number；
B. the rating matrix of the index of m estimators is obtained using following formula
In formulaFor the scoring vector of estimator m；
C. the rating matrix aggregation A of every estimator is obtained using following formulaαN×αN:
In formulaFor the index rating matrix of m estimators；
D. in following equations W, to add up A to the rating matrix that step C is obtainedαN×αNCarry out dimensionality reduction:
E. the obtained W of step D is normalized to obtainThen it will obtainIn element asked with corresponding index score
It sums again after product, obtains index importance degree score V1,V2,...,VN。
Parameter weight described in step S4 specially uses following formula parameter weight λs,i:
N is index number in formula；ViFor the index importance degree score of i-th of index, VkFor the index of k-th of index
Importance degree score.
Quantization and nondimensionalization are carried out to index described in step S5, the amount of index is specially carried out using following steps
Change and nondimensionalization:
A. qualitative index is quantified: according to the evaluation result of qualitative class index, is commented using corresponding grade
Point, and qualitative index is quantified as membership function using type Cauchy bigger than normal distribution and logarithmic function；
B. quantitative target is quantified: unification processing is carried out to quantitative target, thus to the quantitative target amount of progress
Change；
C. nondimensionalization is carried out to index: the nondimensional standard observation value x of index is calculated using following formula
′ij:
X in formulaijFor numerical value of the same index in disparity items,
Building comprehensive grade model described in step S6 specially constructs comprehensive grade model using following formula:
Y in formulajFor the scoring of index, WjFor the weight of index, n is the number of index.
The evaluation assessment method of this power grid project investment benefit provided by the invention constructs and considers item-function feature
Assessment indicator system, while proposing graph model target weight method, by Rating Model, obtain power grid project by function point
The differentiation evaluation result of class, therefore the method for the present invention scientifically and rationally can carry out benefit evaluation, energy to power grid project investment
Enough relatively accurate and quicklook reflection different function project returns of investment, and the method for the present invention science is reliable, calculating process
It is simple and clear.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method flow diagram of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
It is as shown in Figure 1 the method flow diagram of the method for the present invention: this power grid project investment benefit provided by the invention
Evaluation assessment method, includes the following steps:
S1. project to be evaluated is classified；Voltage class presses 500 (750) kV, 220 (330) kV, 110 (66) kV
And 35 kilovolts and following power grid project of transmitting and converting electricity are classified；Power grid item-function by meet load supply, power supply send out,
Ferroelectric power supply, the mating submitting of substation, reinforcement rack engineering are classified；
S2. according to the classification results of step S1, assessment indicator system is constructed；It can be using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) building evaluation
Index system specifically comprises the following steps:
A. using the returns of investment of project to be evaluated as target, related index will be evaluated with power grid Project Benefit and be divided into one
Grade indicator layer and two-level index layer are established using returns of investment as the three-decker of target；
B. load supply such as met according to the item-function in step S1, promote safety, promotion power supply quality, satisfaction
Social policy etc. establishes first class index layer in terms of 4, and respectively raising power supply capacity, improvement power supply quality, promotion is economical
Benefit meets social environment policy；
C. it using the first class index layer established in evaluation procedure B as target, is established respectively for 4 first class index corresponding
Two-level index." improving power supply capacity " two-level index is to improve capacity-load ratio, newly-increased power transformation capacity, solve high-pressure heavy-load route, change
Power station load balancing degrees apt to change improve high-tension line load balancing degrees, solve high-pressure heavy-load main transformer；" improving power supply quality " two
Grade index is to improve grid N-1, improve quality of voltage, improve trend distribution, shorten high voltage supply radius；" promote warp
Ji benefit " two-level index is to reduce line loss, year conveying electricity, overall life cycle cost, increase power supply volume benefit；" meet society
Environmental policy " is Project Technical progress, on economic development influence, user satisfaction.
S3. the assessment indicator system constructed according to step S2, establishes the graph model of index and is quantified；Specially adopt
Graph model and the quantization of index are established with following steps:
A. there are N number of index and M estimator, while the scoring of each index is α points of systems (being scored at 0~α), then uses
Following formula obtains the scoring vector of estimator m
Z is scoring of k-th of estimator to index k in formula；For the scoring vector of single estimator, l is the scoring
The length of vector；N and M is natural number；
B. the rating matrix of the index of m estimators is obtained using following formula
In formulaFor the scoring vector of estimator m；
C. the rating matrix aggregation A of every estimator is obtained using following formulaαN×αN:
In formulaFor the index rating matrix of m estimators；
D. in following equations W, to add up A to the rating matrix that step C is obtainedαN×αNCarry out dimensionality reduction:
E. the obtained W of step D is normalized to obtainThen it will obtainIn element asked with corresponding index score
It sums again after product, obtains index importance degree score V1,V2,...,VN；
S4. the index weights of the index graph model after the quantization that step S3 is obtained are calculated；Specially use following formula meter
Calculate index weights λs,i:
N is index number in formula；ViFor the index importance degree score of i-th of index, VkFor the index of k-th of index
Importance degree score；
According to the calculating process of above-mentioned graph model index weights, the weight of firsts and seconds index is calculated separately:
First class index assigns power: first class index weight is determined using projects function as destination layer, is indicated using 5 points of attributes processed
The importance that first class index improves power supply capacity, improves power supply quality, promotes economic benefit, meeting social environment policy, then root
According to method flow parameter weight in step S3.
Two-level index weight assigns power: using first class index as destination layer, indicating that two-level index improves using 5 points of attributes processed and holds
Ratio, newly-increased power transformation capacity are carried, high-pressure heavy-load route is solved, improves substation's load balancing degrees, improves high-tension line load balancing
Degree solves high-pressure heavy-load main transformer；Improve grid N-1, improves quality of voltage, improve trend distribution, shorten high voltage supply
Radius；It reduces line loss, year conveying electricity, overall life cycle cost, increase power supply volume benefit；Economy is sent out in Project Technical progress
Open up the importance of influence, user satisfaction.Further according to method flow parameter weight in step S3.
S5. quantization and nondimensionalization are carried out respectively to the index that step S2 is obtained；Specially referred to using following steps
Target quantization and nondimensionalization:
A. qualitative index is quantified: according to the evaluation result of qualitative class index, is commented using corresponding grade
Point, and qualitative index is quantified as membership function using type Cauchy bigger than normal distribution and logarithmic function；
The grading evaluation of qualitative class index be " significant, obvious, general, small, nothing ", by this 5 grades be corresponding in turn to for
5,4,3,2,1；Take type Cauchy distribution bigger than normal and logarithmic function as membership function:
α in formula1、β1, a, b be undetermined constant, x be the corresponding numerical value of 5 grades, f (x) be qualitative index be subordinate to according to this
The normalization numerical value that function obtains；
B. quantitative target is quantified: unification processing is carried out to quantitative target, thus to the quantitative target amount of progress
Change；
For minimal type data target x, then enable:
For large data target x, then enable:
M and m is respectively the maximum value and minimum value of index x in formula；
C. nondimensionalization is carried out to index: the nondimensional standard observation value x of index is calculated using following formula
′ij:
X in formulaijFor numerical value of the same index in disparity items,
S6. the index weights obtained according to the obtained index of step S5 and step S4 construct comprehensive grade model, thus
Returns of investment are evaluated；Comprehensive grade model is specially constructed using following formula:
Y in formulajFor the scoring of index, WjFor the weight of index, n is the number of index.
The method of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with a specific embodiment: 2012 to 2017 years H electric power savings
Company 500,220 kv grid operation project investments are 179.2 hundred million yuan total, wherein 500 kilovolts 68.01 hundred million yuan of level gross investment,
220 kilovolts of levels invest 111.2 hundred million yuan.Wherein 500 kilovolts: newly-increased 21.84 hundred million yuan of the workload demand power grid project investment of satisfaction,
Accounting 32.1%；Meet power supply and sends out 8.37 hundred million yuan of power grid project investment, accounting 12.3%；Main grid structure is reinforced power grid project and is thrown
Provide 33.72 hundred million yuan, accounting 49.6%；Electric network security promotes 4.08 hundred million yuan of project investment, accounting 6.0%.2012-2017
Year H provincial electric power company 35-110 kv grid operation project investment is 10,650,380,000 yuan total, wherein 110 kilovolts of level gross investments
7701560000 yuan, 35 kilovolts of levels invest 2,948,820,000 yuan.10 kv grid of H provincial electric power company is gone into operation within -2017 years 2014
Project investment is 17,000,340,000 yuan total.
By taking 220 kilovolts of operation projects as an example, the project under the voltage class is divided into the newly-increased load of satisfaction by function, is mentioned
High electric network security, meet power supply send out, main grid structure reinforce, ferroelectric power five seed types project.The evaluation index body of building
System is as shown in table 1.
1 220 kilovolts of Output Ratio systems of table
Establish the graph model of indication information: by taking the first class index weight calculation under " meeting newly-increased load " intermediate item as an example
(using 5 points of systems), evaluation information is as shown in table 2.
Table 2 " meeting newly-increased load " intermediate item first class index evaluates situation summary sheet
Power method for solving is assigned according to the graph model of foundation, " meeting newly-increased load " intermediate item first class index power is calculated
It is respectively as follows: 0.3568,0.2577,0.1652,0.2202 again.
Using graph model enabling legislation, first class index is calculated and two-level index weights are as shown in table 3:
The index weights at different levels of table 3
Building considers the assessment indicator system of item-function；The characteristics of for disparity items function, assigns according to graph model and weighs
The index weights of reflection item-function primary and secondary are calculated in method；By the normalized to index initial data, in conjunction with index
The power grid project investment benefit for considering function difference is finally calculated in weight；
Power method and quantification of targets and Rating Model are assigned according to power transmission network Output Ratio system, graph model, is saved with H
For " the newly-increased load of satisfaction " and " power supply submitting " intermediate item (totally 9 projects) that 220kV in 2016 goes into operation, calculating has been gone into operation
The benefit of project, the results are shown in Table 4.
4 220kV project of table presses function classification Evaluation of Investment-Benefit result
Claims (8)
1. a kind of evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit, includes the following steps:
S1. project to be evaluated is classified；
S2. according to the classification results of step S1, assessment indicator system is constructed；
S3. the assessment indicator system constructed according to step S2, establishes the graph model of index and is quantified；
S4. the index weights of the index graph model after the quantization that step S3 is obtained are calculated；
S5. quantization and nondimensionalization are carried out respectively to the index that step S2 is obtained；
S6. the index weights obtained according to the obtained index of step S5 and step S4 construct comprehensive grade model, thus to investment
Benefit is evaluated.
2. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described in step S1
Classify to project to be evaluated, specially project is classified by voltage class and item-function, the voltage class packet
Include 750kV, 220kV, 110kV and 35 kilovolts and following；The item-function include meet load supply, power supply send out,
Ferroelectric power supply, reinforces rack engineering at the mating submitting of substation.
3. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described in step S2
Assessment indicator system is constructed, specially constructs assessment indicator system referring to analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
4. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 3, it is characterised in that described in step S2
Assessment indicator system is constructed, is specifically comprised the following steps:
A. using the returns of investment of project to be evaluated as target, related index will be evaluated with power grid Project Benefit and be divided into first class index
Layer and two-level index layer are established using returns of investment as the three-decker of target；
B. first class index layer is established according to the item-function in step S1, the first class index layer be respectively improve power supply capacity,
Improve power supply quality, promotes economic benefit, meets social environment policy；
C. using the first class index layer established in evaluation procedure B as target, corresponding second level is established respectively for 4 first class index and is referred to
Mark: " improving power supply capacity " two-level index is to improve capacity-load ratio, newly-increased power transformation capacity, solve high-pressure heavy-load route, improve power transformation
Stand load balancing degrees, improve high-tension line load balancing degrees, solve high-pressure heavy-load main transformer；" improve power supply quality " two-level index is
Improve grid N-1, improves quality of voltage, improve trend distribution, shorten high voltage supply radius；" promoting economic benefit " two
Grade index is to reduce line loss, year conveying electricity, overall life cycle cost, increase power supply volume benefit；" meeting social environment policy "
For Project Technical progress, on economic development influence, user satisfaction.
5. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described in step S3
It establishes the graph model of index and is quantified, graph model and the quantization of index are specially established using following steps:
A. there are N number of index and M estimator, while the scoring of each index is α points of systems, then obtains estimator using following formula
The scoring vector of m
Z is scoring of k-th of estimator to index k in formula；For the scoring vector of single estimator, l is the scoring vector
Length；N and M is natural number；
B. the rating matrix of the index of m estimators is obtained using following formula
In formulaFor the scoring vector of estimator m；
C. the rating matrix aggregation A of every estimator is obtained using following formulaαN×αN:
In formulaFor the index rating matrix of m estimators；
D. in following equations W, to add up A to the rating matrix that step C is obtainedαN×αNCarry out dimensionality reduction:
E. the obtained W of step D is normalized to obtainThen it will obtainIn element and the quadrature of corresponding index score after
It sums again, obtains index importance degree score V1,V2,...,VN。
6. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 5, it is characterised in that described in step S4
Parameter weight specially uses following formula parameter weight λs,i:
N is index number in formula；ViFor the index importance degree score of i-th of index, VkIndex for k-th of index is important
Property degree score.
7. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described in step S5
Quantization and nondimensionalization are carried out to index, quantization and the nondimensionalization of index are specially carried out using following steps:
A. qualitative index is quantified: according to the evaluation result of qualitative class index, is scored using corresponding grade, and adopt
It uses type Cauchy distribution bigger than normal and logarithmic function as membership function, qualitative index is quantified；
B. quantitative target is quantified: unification processing is carried out to quantitative target, to quantify to quantitative target；
C. nondimensionalization is carried out to index: the nondimensional standard observation value x' of index is calculated using following formulaij:
X in formulaijFor numerical value of the same index in disparity items,
8. the evaluation assessment method of power grid project investment benefit according to claim 7, it is characterised in that described in step S6
Comprehensive grade model is constructed, comprehensive grade model is specially constructed using following formula:
Y in formulajFor the scoring of index, WjFor the weight of index, n is the number of index.
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| CN109784728A (en) * | 2019-01-16 | 2019-05-21 | 上海大学 | Life cycle management Benefit Evaluation Method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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| CN111369083A (en) * | 2018-12-25 | 2020-07-03 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Evaluation method and system for investment benefits of power grid project |
| CN111428938A (en) * | 2020-04-14 | 2020-07-17 | 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power transmission network scheme optimization method based on function difference and full life cycle |
| CN112598299A (en) * | 2020-12-25 | 2021-04-02 | 国网陕西省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Load center 750 kV power supply area combined power supply grid structure mode construction method |
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| CN112598299A (en) * | 2020-12-25 | 2021-04-02 | 国网陕西省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Load center 750 kV power supply area combined power supply grid structure mode construction method |
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