CN108416476A - A kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system and prediction technique - Google Patents
A kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system and prediction technique Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system and prediction techniques.Currently, the Design cooling load of distributed busbar protection is substantially the simple superposition of present situation cooling and heating load and recent cooling and heating load, it is difficult to the accurate planning for instructing energy source station.Present situation load data collection module, recent load data collection module and load data collection module at a specified future date are connect with level-one correcting module in the present invention, level-one correcting module is connect with comprehensive load prediction module, comprehensive load prediction module is connect with Second level amendment module, Second level amendment module is connect with synthetic load design module, synthetic load design module is connect with power-equipment, peak regulation equipment and energy storage device respectively, power-equipment is connect with waste heat utilization equipment, and power-equipment, peak regulation equipment, energy storage device and waste heat utilization equipment are connect with user terminal.The present invention is modified to present situation, in the recent period with the load data of three levels at a specified future date, obtains rational load design value, the accuracy and practicability of increasing productivity prediction.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to distributed energy fields, and in particular to a kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system and prediction side
Method.
Background technology
Distributed energy resource system is that user's cooling and heating load is relied on to establish, and the precision of cooling and heating load prediction is built to distributed
If scale and the level of profitability have significant impact, such as application No. is 201620439566.9 Chinese patents.It is distributed cold at present
Heat load prediction can be divided into present situation load, recent load, load at a specified future date, the Design cooling load of distributed busbar protection in time scale
The substantially simple superposition of present situation cooling and heating load and recent cooling and heating load, it is difficult to the accurate planning for instructing distributed busbar protection.
Invention content
It is an object of the invention to overcome above-mentioned deficiency existing in the prior art, and provide a kind of distribution of reasonable design
Formula cooling and heating load forecasting system and prediction technique, the accuracy for promoting prediction process and practicability.
Technical solution is used by the present invention solves the above problems：A kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system, it is special
Sign is, including present situation load data collection module, recent load data collection module, load data collection module at a specified future date, one
Grade correcting module, comprehensive load prediction module, Second level amendment module, synthetic load design module, power-equipment, peak regulation equipment,
Energy storage device, waste heat utilization equipment and user terminal；The present situation load data collection module, recent load data collection module and
Load data collection module at a specified future date is connect with level-one correcting module, and the level-one correcting module connects with comprehensive load prediction module
It connects, the comprehensive load prediction module is connect with Second level amendment module, and the Second level amendment module designs module with synthetic load
Connection, the synthetic load design module connects with power-equipment, peak regulation equipment and energy storage device respectively, the power-equipment and
Waste heat utilization equipment connects, and the power-equipment, peak regulation equipment, energy storage device and waste heat utilization equipment are connect with user terminal.
Distributed cold and heat load prediction system structure design is reasonable, can be carried out to present situation, in the recent period with the load data of three levels at a specified future date
It corrects, obtains rational load design value, improve the accuracy for instructing distributed busbar protection to plan.
Furthermore, the present situation load data collection module, recent load data collection module and load number at a specified future date
It is arranged in parallel according to collection module.Comprehensive analysis is carried out by the load data to present situation, recent and at a specified future date three levels, is come accurate
Plan distributed busbar protection.
Furthermore, the power-equipment, peak regulation equipment and energy storage device parallel arrangement；The waste heat utilization equipment,
Peak regulation equipment and energy storage device parallel arrangement.Each equipment cooperates, and provides required energy to the user jointly.
A kind of prediction technique of distributed cold and heat load prediction system as described above, which is characterized in that the prediction side
Method is as follows：
（1）The basic cooling and heating load data in distributed energy resource system are collected, the number of present situation, three levels recent and at a specified future date is included
According to；Wherein：The collection that present situation load data is carried out in present situation load data collection module, in recent load data collection module
The middle collection for carrying out recent load data carries out the collection of load data at a specified future date in load data collection module at a specified future date；
（2）To step in level-one correcting module（1）Present situation load data, recent load data and the load number at a specified future date of middle collection
According to being analyzed, according to industry development and stability of requirement factor, present situation load data, recent load data and remote are respectively obtained
The level-one correction factor of phase load data；
（3）According to step（2）In obtained level-one correction factor, to present situation load data, recent load data and load at a specified future date
Data are modified, and in comprehensive load prediction module, obtain region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；
（4）Consider design margin, the Second level amendment coefficient of region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value obtained in Second level amendment module,
And Second level amendment is carried out to region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；
（5）In synthetic load designs module, region cooling and heating load design value is obtained；Distinguished according to region cooling and heating load design value
The type selecting of progress power-equipment, peak regulation equipment, energy storage device and waste heat utilization equipment, meeting using for user terminal can demand.
By being analyzed and being carried out modified twice to present situation load data, recent load data and load data at a specified future date,
The prediction technique of distributed cold and heat load more refined has been obtained, it is negative compared to the design of distributed busbar protection in conventional method
Lotus uses the simple superposition of present situation cooling and heating load and recent cooling and heating load, can more accurately instruct the rule of distributed busbar protection
It draws, and planning is more reasonable.
Furthermore, in step（3）In, region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value is：T0=L1P1+ L2P2+ L3P3；Its
In, T0For region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；L1For present situation load data, P1For the level-one correction factor of present situation load data；
L2For recent load data, P2For the level-one correction factor of recent load data；L3For load data at a specified future date, P3For load at a specified future date
The level-one correction factor of data；In step（5）In, region cooling and heating load design value is：T=ξ×T0；Wherein, T is that region is cold and hot
Load design value, ξ are the Second level amendment coefficient of region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value.It is cold more can accurately to calculate region
Thermic load design value, to choose suitable power-equipment, peak regulation equipment, energy storage device and waste heat utilization equipment.
Compared with prior art, the present invention haing the following advantages and effect：
1, consider the present situation in region, recent and at a specified future date cooling and heating load, and second-order correction is carried out to its data, more closed
The region cooling and heating load design value of reason provides more accurate foundation for the construction plan of distributed energy.
2, different load coefficients is used to present situation, recent and at a specified future date cooling and heating load, improves the precision of load design.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the overall structure diagram of distributed cold and heat load prediction system in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the flow diagram of distributed cold and heat load forecasting method in the embodiment of the present invention.
In figure：Present situation load data collection module 1, recent load data collection module 2, load data collection module at a specified future date
3, level-one correcting module 4, comprehensive load prediction module 5, Second level amendment module 6, synthetic load design module 7, power-equipment 8,
Peak regulation equipment 9, energy storage device 10, waste heat utilization equipment 11, user terminal 12.
Specific implementation mode
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and by embodiment, and following embodiment is to this hair
Bright explanation and the invention is not limited in following embodiments.
Embodiment.
Referring to Fig. 1 to Fig. 2, a kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system, including it is present situation load data collection module 1, close
Phase load data collection module 2, load data collection module 3 at a specified future date, level-one correcting module 4, comprehensive load prediction module 5, two
Grade correcting module 6, synthetic load design module 7, power-equipment 8, peak regulation equipment 9, energy storage device 10,11 and of waste heat utilization equipment
User terminal 12.
Present situation load data collection module 1, recent load data collection module 2 and load data collection module 3 at a specified future date are
It is connect with level-one correcting module 4, present situation load data collection module 1, recent load data collection module 2 and load data at a specified future date
Collection module 3 is arranged in parallel；Level-one correcting module 4 is connect with comprehensive load prediction module 5, comprehensive load prediction module 5 and two
Grade correcting module 6 connects, and Second level amendment module 6 and synthetic load design module 7 are connect, synthetic load design module 7 respectively with
Power-equipment 8, peak regulation equipment 9 and energy storage device 10 connect, and power-equipment 8, peak regulation equipment 9 and energy storage device 10 are arranged in parallel；
Power-equipment 8 is connect with waste heat utilization equipment 11, and waste heat utilization equipment 11, peak regulation equipment 9 and energy storage device 10 are arranged in parallel；It is dynamic
Power equipment 8, peak regulation equipment 9, energy storage device 10 and waste heat utilization equipment 11 are connect with user terminal 12, and each equipment cooperates altogether
It is same to provide energy to the user.
A kind of prediction technique of distributed cold and heat load prediction system as described above, prediction technique are as follows：
（1）The basic cooling and heating load data in distributed energy resource system are collected, the number of present situation, three levels recent and at a specified future date is included
According to；Wherein：The collection that present situation load data is carried out in present situation load data collection module 1 collects mould in recent load data
The collection that recent load data is carried out in block 2 carries out the collection of load data at a specified future date in load data collection module 3 at a specified future date；
（2）To step in level-one correcting module 4（1）Present situation load data, recent load data and the load at a specified future date of middle collection
Data are analyzed, according to industry development and stability of requirement factor, respectively obtain present situation load data, recent load data and
The level-one correction factor of load data at a specified future date；
（3）According to step（2）In obtained level-one correction factor, to present situation load data, recent load data and load at a specified future date
Data are modified, and in comprehensive load prediction module 5, obtain region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；
（4）Consider design margin, the Second level amendment system of region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value is obtained in Second level amendment module 6
Number, and Second level amendment is carried out to region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；
（5）In synthetic load designs module 7, region cooling and heating load design value is obtained；According to region cooling and heating load design value point
Not carry out power-equipment 8, peak regulation equipment 9, energy storage device 10 and waste heat utilization equipment 11 type selecting, meet user terminal 12
With energy demand.
In step（3）In, region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value is：T0=L1P1+ L2P2+ L3P3；Wherein, T0It is cold for region
Thermic load Prediction of Total value；L1For present situation load data, P1For the level-one correction factor of present situation load data；L2For recent load
Data, P2For the level-one correction factor of recent load data；L3For load data at a specified future date, P3Level-one for load data at a specified future date is repaiied
Positive coefficient.
In step（5）In, region cooling and heating load design value is：T=ξ×T0；Wherein, T is region cooling and heating load design value, ξ
For the Second level amendment coefficient of region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value.
Specific implementation process is as follows, certain industrial park, and the thermic load annual demand for having enterprise is 30t/h, 3-5 rule
The thermic load annual demand for drawing enterprise is 60t/h, and 5-10 plans that annual demand is 100t/h, level-one correction factor difference
It is 1.0,0.8,0.2, then region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value is：
T0=L1P1+ L2P2+ L3P3=30×1.0+60×0.8+100×0.2=98t/h。
Second level amendment coefficient is 0.9, then cooling and heating load design value in region is：
T=ξ×T0=0.9×98=88.2t/h
Suitable power-equipment 8, peak regulation equipment 9, energy storage device 10 and waste heat are chosen according to this region cooling and heating load design value
Utilize equipment 11.
Although the present invention is disclosed as above with embodiment, it is not limited to protection scope of the present invention, any to be familiar with
The technical staff of this technology changes and retouches made by without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, should all belong to this hair
Bright protection domain.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of distributed cold and heat load prediction system, which is characterized in that including present situation load data collection module, recent load
Data collection module, load data collection module at a specified future date, level-one correcting module, comprehensive load prediction module, Second level amendment module,
Synthetic load designs module, power-equipment, peak regulation equipment, energy storage device, waste heat utilization equipment and user terminal；The present situation load
Data collection module, recent load data collection module and load data collection module at a specified future date are connect with level-one correcting module,
The level-one correcting module is connect with comprehensive load prediction module, and the comprehensive load prediction module connects with Second level amendment module
Connect, the Second level amendment module and synthetic load design module connects, the synthetic load design module respectively with power-equipment,
Peak regulation equipment is connected with energy storage device, and the power-equipment is connect with waste heat utilization equipment, the power-equipment, peak regulation equipment,
Energy storage device and waste heat utilization equipment are connect with user terminal.
2. distributed cold and heat load prediction system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the present situation load data is received
Collect module, recent load data collection module and load data collection module parallel arrangement at a specified future date.
3. distributed cold and heat load prediction system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the power-equipment, peak regulation
Equipment and energy storage device parallel arrangement.
4. distributed cold and heat load prediction system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the waste heat utilization equipment,
Peak regulation equipment and energy storage device parallel arrangement.
5. a kind of prediction side of distributed cold and heat load prediction system as claimed in any one of claims 1-4
Method, which is characterized in that the prediction technique is as follows：
（1）The basic cooling and heating load data in distributed energy resource system are collected, the number of present situation, three levels recent and at a specified future date is included
According to；Wherein：The collection that present situation load data is carried out in present situation load data collection module, in recent load data collection module
The middle collection for carrying out recent load data carries out the collection of load data at a specified future date in load data collection module at a specified future date；
（2）To step in level-one correcting module（1）Present situation load data, recent load data and the load number at a specified future date of middle collection
According to being analyzed, according to industry development and stability of requirement factor, present situation load data, recent load data and remote are respectively obtained
The level-one correction factor of phase load data；
（3）According to step（2）In obtained level-one correction factor, to present situation load data, recent load data and load at a specified future date
Data are modified, and in comprehensive load prediction module, obtain region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；
（4）Consider design margin, the Second level amendment coefficient of region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value obtained in Second level amendment module,
And Second level amendment is carried out to region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；
（5）In synthetic load designs module, region cooling and heating load design value is obtained；Distinguished according to region cooling and heating load design value
The type selecting of progress power-equipment, peak regulation equipment, energy storage device and waste heat utilization equipment, meeting using for user terminal can demand.
6. distributed cold and heat load forecasting method according to claim 5, which is characterized in that in step（3）In, region is cold
Thermic load Prediction of Total value is：T0=L1P1+ L2P2+ L3P3；Wherein, T0For region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value；L1For present situation
Load data, P1For the level-one correction factor of present situation load data；L2For recent load data, P2It is the one of recent load data
Grade correction factor；L3For load data at a specified future date, P3For the level-one correction factor of load data at a specified future date.
7. distributed cold and heat load forecasting method according to claim 5, which is characterized in that in step（5）In, region is cold
Thermic load design value is：T=ξ×T0；Wherein, T is region cooling and heating load design value, and ξ is region cooling and heating load Prediction of Total value
Second level amendment coefficient.
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Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104571068A (en) * | 2015-01-30 | 2015-04-29 | 中国华电集团科学技术研究总院有限公司 | Optimized operation control method and system of distributed energy system |
| CN104993522A (en) * | 2015-06-30 | 2015-10-21 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Active power distribution network multi-time scale coordinated optimization scheduling method based on MPC |
| CN107590568A (en) * | 2017-09-20 | 2018-01-16 | 上海合泽电力工程设计咨询有限公司 | A kind of load forecasting method that becomes more meticulous based on space subdivision |
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- 2018-03-14 CN CN201810211275.8A patent/CN108416476A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104571068A (en) * | 2015-01-30 | 2015-04-29 | 中国华电集团科学技术研究总院有限公司 | Optimized operation control method and system of distributed energy system |
| CN104993522A (en) * | 2015-06-30 | 2015-10-21 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Active power distribution network multi-time scale coordinated optimization scheduling method based on MPC |
| CN107590568A (en) * | 2017-09-20 | 2018-01-16 | 上海合泽电力工程设计咨询有限公司 | A kind of load forecasting method that becomes more meticulous based on space subdivision |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
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