CN106845096A - A kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective - Google Patents
A kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective, comprises the following steps:S1, compile region meteorology, the hydrology, soil moisture content, agricultural with historical drought data, set up regional drought document data base;S2, choose and drought assessment index and set up assessment indicator system:S3, determine Arid Evaluation index system in Arid Evaluation index in corresponding arid grade threshold of each season;S4, drought assessment grade and evaluation result are determined using frequency analysis method;Arid Evaluation choosing index system multiple indexs of different drought type that the present invention sets up, compensate for the deficiency of single type or single metrics evaluation;The Arid Evaluation index focus of selection considers many factors influence;The damage caused by a drought integrated level of region Various Seasonal can be evaluated, drought evaluation index system and grade classification result can directly using any once arid for carrying out evaluation region after determining, appraisal procedure is simple and easy to apply.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to damage caused by a drought assessment technology field, specifically a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective.
Background technology
Droughts are one of topmost natural calamities in world wide, and coverage is wide, last long, occurrence frequency
It is high, it has also become one of restriction social economy and the fast-developing principal element of agricultural.Various arids are being summarized by meteorology institute of the U.S.
Arid is divided into four types on the basis of definition:Meteorological drought, agricultural arid, Hydrologic Drought and social economy arid.
The degree of arid is expressed with drought index, and drought index is a kind of quantitative expression mode for describing damage caused by a drought, is prison
Arid generation, the basis of development are surveyed, evaluated and studied, evaluation and foreca accurately is made to arid, it is necessary to select appropriate doing
Non-irrigated index.Counted according to World Meteorological Organization, nearly 60 kinds of the drought index of current countries in the world application almost covers influence arid
The various aspects of factor, but because the conditions such as the various regions hydrology, meteorology, agricultural have differences, same index is in the dry of different regions
Non-irrigated grading standard is different, and can be used to describe polytype arid without a kind of index, therefore is being evaluated
Representative or application effect preferable drought index can be chosen during a certain Regional Drought and sets up Arid Evaluation index body
It is to make up the deficiency that single drought index is evaluated.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective, the method can make up list
The deficiency of one index or single type metrics evaluation, the Drought Condition of comprehensive reflecting regional.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is:
A kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective, comprises the following steps:
S1, compile region meteorology, the hydrology, soil moisture content, agricultural with historical drought data, set up regional drought document data base;
S2, choose and drought assessment index and set up assessment indicator system:
Meteorological drought index, Hydrological drought indices and the agricultural drought indices of conversion zone drought character are chosen, region is set up and is done
Non-irrigated assessment indicator system;The meteorological drought index chooses precipitation anomaly percentage, precipitation row frequency and continuous diet without fishmeal, institute
State Hydrological drought indices and choose underground water buried depth, the agricultural drought indices choose soil moisture content;
Precipitation anomaly percentage presses formula(1)Calculate, formula(1)Middle Dp is in the calculating phase
Precipitation anomaly percentage, P is precipitation in the calculating phase,It is mean annual precipitation in the calculating phase;
The precipitation row frequency refers to frequency calculated value of the precipitation in sequence same period precipitation long in the evaluation phase, using the curves of P- III
Row's frequency determines that the size of frequency values reflects the situation of the period the total precipitation within the overall merit phase, and frequency is bigger to represent arid journey
Degree is more serious;The time of frequency 60%~75% is set to mild drought year, the time of frequency 75%~90% is set to mild drought year,
The time of frequency 90%~95% is set to severe drought year, and time of the frequency more than 95% is set to Serious Drought Event year;
The continuous diet without fishmeal refers to the continuous number of days without effective rainfall, the length of continuous diet without fishmeal duration in a certain period
The short degree for reflecting soil moisture content continuous decrease and continuous drought duration, continuous diet without fishmeal are more long, and arid is got over
Seriously;When evaluating damage caused by a drought using continuous diet without fishmeal, it is contemplated that the otherness of Various Seasonal weather and the water demand of crop, to sentencing
Whether disconnected daily rainfall is that effective rainfall is specified below:In spring and autumn, daily rainfall being considered as without effective rainfall less than 3mm,
The day is to be considered as without rain day;In summer, daily rainfall will be regarded as without effective rainfall less than 5mm, the day is to be considered as without rain day;In the winter
Season, daily rainfall will be regarded as without effective rainfall less than 1mm, the day is to be considered as without rain day;
The soil moisture content refers to the humidity conditions of field crops root parameter, due to differing texture preserving soil moisture performance not
Together, to make evaluation index that there is versatility and comparativity, can be using relative moisture of the soil as evaluation index;
Relative moisture of the soil refers to the ratio that soil moisture content accounts for field capacity, by formula(2)Meter
Calculate, formula(2)Middle W is relative moisture of the soil, and θ is soil average weight water content, FcIt is water-retaining quantity among field of soil;
Underground water buried depth can in real time reflect the change procedure of underground water, when great drought is run into, due to phreatic water charging point
The increasing of table water and man-made recovery's amount, shallow groundwater can decline;When big flood is run into, due to surface water body supply shallow-layer ground
Lower water and man-made recovery are reduced, and shallow groundwater can rise;Underground water buried depth is the index for reflecting that underground water is how many, underground water
The change of buried depth can reflect the degree of arid to a certain extent;
S3, determine Arid Evaluation index system in Arid Evaluation index in corresponding arid grade threshold of each season;
Arid grade is divided into not arid, mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event;Occur according to damage caused by a drought
Damage caused by a drought is divided into spring drought, summer drought, autumn drought and winter drought by season;
Row's frequency is carried out to precipitation anomaly percentage, continuous diet without fishmeal and underground water buried depth using the curves of P- III, first chooses solid
Determine critical value of the corresponding value of frequency as mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event, then by with history
Typical dry year data is analyzed to be tested and corrects, final to determine arid grade threshold;The mild drought, in
The frequency that degree arid, severe drought and Serious Drought Event are fixed is respectively 60%, 75%, 90% and 95%;
S4, drought assessment grade and evaluation result are determined using frequency analysis method.
Further, it is 1 day that the step S1 collects the hydrology, the meteorological chronomere with soil moisture content data, the hydrology with
The time span of meteorological data is more than 30 years.
Further, not arid, mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event difference in the step S3
Represented with 0,1,2,3,4.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
First, Arid Evaluation choosing index system multiple indexs of different drought type that the present invention sets up, compensate for unitary class
The deficiency of type or single metrics evaluation;
2nd, the Arid Evaluation index focus chosen is different, and the precipitation that precipitation anomaly percentage is primarily upon the evaluation period is total
Amount, continuous diet without fishmeal pays close attention to the assigning process of the period precipitation, and soil moisture content should consider the total precipitation, consider again
The time distribution of precipitation, while also being influenceed by mankind's activity, the change of underground water buried depth is multifactor by precipitation, man-made recovery etc.
Influence;
3rd, damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method can evaluate the damage caused by a drought integrated level of region Various Seasonal, drought evaluation index system and
Grade classification result can directly using any once arid for carrying out evaluation region after determining, appraisal procedure is simple and easy to apply, Ke Yiwei
Basic unit's drought control and drought resistance administrative staff's application, also can provide technical support for region drought control and drought resistance decision-making.
Brief description of the drawings
The present invention is further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples:
Fig. 1 is schematic flow sheet of the invention.
Specific embodiment
As shown in figure 1, the present invention provides a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective, comprise the following steps:
S1, compile region meteorology, the hydrology, soil moisture content, agricultural with historical drought data, set up regional drought document data base;
By taking In Huaibei District of Anhui Province as an example, North Huaihe River Area of Anhui Province is located at Northern Anhui, the Huang-Huai-Hai plain south, is located in eastern footpath
Between 114 ° 55 '~118 ° 10 ' and 25 '~34 ° 35 ' of north latitude 32 °, including Fuyang, Suzhou, the Huaibei, Huainan, Bangbu, 6, Bozhou
County of 27, city(Suburban area), gross area 37421km2, the hm of existing cultivated area 2,130,0002, it is that Anhui Province or even Basin of Huaihe River are important
Grain, cotton and oil production base.In 64 years since the founding of New, there is drought 38 times in In Huaibei District of Anhui Province altogether, wherein special
Big arid 7 times, severe drought 10 times, mild drought 10 times, mild drought 11 times.In Huaibei District of Anhui Province western average every 2.5
Just once summer drought or winter are non-irrigated within~3 years, and just once Winter-Spring drought or autumn are non-irrigated within average every 2.5~3 years for east.The season of agricultural arid
Property feature substantially, main dry type has spring drought, summer drought, autumn drought, spring-summer drought, summer and autumn, and even drought, spring and autumn connect non-irrigated with drought, spring and summer autumn
7 kinds, just once summer drought or autumn are non-irrigated within average every 2.5~3 years for this area, or Winter-Spring is even non-irrigated.
The present embodiment have collected, the arid related money in the In Huaibei District of Anhui Province to 2000 in 1994 in 1978 in 1966
Material, the hydrology and meteorological data include:7 rainfall websites, 1961~2015 years Daily rainfall data, 3 evaporation from water surface websites 1964
~2015 years evaporation from water surface data day by day, 3 Soil Moisture Monitoring websites 2005~2015 years soil moisture content data, 10 Groundwaters day by day
Position monitoring station 1977~2015 years observational data day by day, data details is specifically shown in Table 1:
The In Huaibei District of Anhui Province of table 1 arid observational data
S2, choose and drought assessment index and set up assessment indicator system:
Meteorological drought index, Hydrological drought indices and the agricultural drought indices of conversion zone drought character are chosen, region is set up and is done
Non-irrigated assessment indicator system;The meteorological drought index chooses precipitation anomaly percentage, precipitation row frequency and continuous diet without fishmeal, institute
State Hydrological drought indices and choose underground water buried depth, the agricultural drought indices choose soil moisture content;
Precipitation anomaly percentage presses formula(1)Calculate, formula(1)Middle Dp is in the calculating phase
Precipitation anomaly percentage, P is precipitation in the calculating phase,It is mean annual precipitation in the calculating phase;
The precipitation row frequency refers to frequency calculated value of the precipitation in sequence same period precipitation long in the evaluation phase, using the curves of P- III
Row's frequency determines that the size of frequency values reflects the situation of the period the total precipitation within the overall merit phase, and frequency is bigger to represent arid journey
Degree is more serious;The time of frequency 60%~75% is set to mild drought year, the time of frequency 75%~90% is set to mild drought year,
The time of frequency 90%~95% is set to severe drought year, and time of the frequency more than 95% is set to Serious Drought Event year;
The continuous diet without fishmeal refers to the continuous number of days without effective rainfall, the length of continuous diet without fishmeal duration in a certain period
The short degree for reflecting soil moisture content continuous decrease and continuous drought duration, continuous diet without fishmeal are more long, and arid is got over
Seriously;When evaluating damage caused by a drought using continuous diet without fishmeal, it is contemplated that the otherness of Various Seasonal weather and the water demand of crop, to sentencing
Whether disconnected daily rainfall is that effective rainfall is specified below:In spring and autumn, daily rainfall being considered as without effective rainfall less than 3mm,
The day is to be considered as without rain day;In summer, daily rainfall will be regarded as without effective rainfall less than 5mm, the day is to be considered as without rain day;In the winter
Season, daily rainfall will be regarded as without effective rainfall less than 1mm, the day is to be considered as without rain day;
The soil moisture content refers to the humidity conditions of field crops root parameter, due to differing texture preserving soil moisture performance not
Together, to make evaluation index that there is versatility and comparativity, can be using relative moisture of the soil as evaluation index;
Relative moisture of the soil refers to the ratio that soil moisture content accounts for field capacity, by formula(2)Meter
Calculate, formula(2)Middle W is relative moisture of the soil, and θ is soil average weight water content, FcIt is water-retaining quantity among field of soil;
Underground water buried depth can in real time reflect the change procedure of underground water, when great drought is run into, due to phreatic water charging point
The increasing of table water and man-made recovery's amount, shallow groundwater can decline;When big flood is run into, due to surface water body supply shallow-layer ground
Lower water and man-made recovery are reduced, and shallow groundwater can rise;Underground water buried depth is the index for reflecting that underground water is how many, underground water
The change of buried depth can reflect the degree of arid to a certain extent;
S3, determine Arid Evaluation index system in Arid Evaluation index in corresponding arid grade threshold of each season;
Arid grade is divided into not arid, mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event;It is not arid, slight dry
Drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event are represented with 0,1,2,3,4 respectively;The season occurred according to damage caused by a drought divides damage caused by a drought
It is spring drought, summer drought, autumn drought and winter drought;Precipitation anomaly percentage, continuous diet without fishmeal and underground water are buried using the curves of P- III
The row's of carrying out frequency, first chooses fixed frequency corresponding value facing as mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event deeply
Dividing value, is then analyzed and tests and correct by with history typical case's dry year data, final to determine arid grade
Threshold value;
Specially:
A, precipitation row's frequency
Annual precipitation is put in order and sued for peace according to spring, summer, autumn, winter, to the precipitation sum in annual each season
Frequency analysis are arranged using the curves of P- III, the precipitation threshold value of frequency 60%, 75%, 90%, 95% is determined;
B, precipitation anomaly percentage
Annual precipitation is put in order and sued for peace according to spring, summer, autumn, winter, and same period average value for many years at calculating,
Annual anomalous percentage is calculated, and using the curves of P- III row's frequency analysis, determines the precipitation of frequency 60%, 75%, 90%, 95%
Anomalous percentage threshold value;
C, continuous diet without fishmeal
Evaporation capacity will be deducted by rainfall day by day first, negative value considers that be considered as without rain day, spring and autumn evaporation capacity are examined as 0 value
3mm, summer evaporation capacity are considered for 5mm, winter evaporation capacity are 1mm;The maximum of annual each season continuous diet without fishmeal is counted, is adopted
Row's frequency analysis continuously are carried out without rain day with the curves of P- III are maximum to annual each season, the company of frequency 60%, 75%, 90%, 95% is determined
Continuous diet without fishmeal threshold value;
D, relative moisture of the soil
Analyzed by field test and field data, determine that the soil of the corresponding different damage caused by a drought grades of wheat, soybean, corn is relatively wet
Degree threshold value;
E, underground water buried depth
The annual Various Seasonal groundwater level average of each website of statistical analysis, frequency analysis are arranged using the curves of P- III, determine frequency
60%th, 75%, 90%, 95% groundwater level threshold value, underground water buried depth subtracts groundwater level for each monitoring point ground elevation,
As a result growth demand of crop etc. determines underground water buried depth threshold value;
Achievement such as following table:
The In Huaibei District of Anhui Province Arid Evaluation index grade classification outcome table of table 2
S4, drought assessment grade and evaluation result are determined using frequency analysis method;
Comprehensive assessment carried out to In Huaibei District of Anhui Province typical case's 1966 dry years, 1978,1994,2001, index one,
2nd, three, four, five precipitation anomaly percentage, precipitation row frequency, continuous diet without fishmeal, relative moisture of the soil and underground are represented respectively
Water buried depth;Grade 0,1,2,3,4 represents not non-irrigated, mild drought, mild drought, severe drought, Serious Drought Event respectively;It is specific to evaluate
Result see the table below:
The In Huaibei District of Anhui Province of table 3 arid rank judging results table
The assessment result of table 3 can reflect the real conditions of this area's arid substantially, and such as summer in 1966 drought and autumn drought are especially big
Arid;The drought of summer in 1978 is Serious Drought Event;The drought of summer in 1994 is Serious Drought Event;Spring drought in 2001 is severe drought, summer in 2001
Drought is Serious Drought Event.The evaluation result of each index is also not quite identical, but does not influence overall judge, and reason is each index
Computational methods with concern emphasis it is different, concrete reason is as follows:(1)Precipitation anomaly percentage and precipitation row's frequency are primarily upon
A certain period the total precipitation, and be not concerned with assigning process of the precipitation within this period, and both computational methods are not yet
It is identical;(2)Continuous diet without fishmeal is not influenceed by the total precipitation in a certain period, and depends on the size of day effectiv precipitation,
The influence of water operation process of namely accepting a surrender in a way;(3)Relative moisture of the soil should consider the total precipitation, examine again
Consider the distribution condition of precipitation in a certain period, while also being influenceed by mankind's activity, such as irrigate;(4)Underground water buried depth
Change influenceed by precipitation, man-made recovery etc., with certain hysteresis quality.
The above, is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, and any formal limitation is not made to the present invention;Appoint
What those of ordinary skill in the art, in the case where technical solution of the present invention ambit is not departed from, all using the side of the disclosure above
Method and technology contents make many possible variations and modification, or the equivalent reality for being revised as equivalent variations to technical solution of the present invention
Apply example.Therefore, every content without departing from technical solution of the present invention, is done according to technical spirit of the invention to above example
Any simple modification, equivalent, equivalence changes and modification, still fall within the range of technical solution of the present invention protection.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
S1, compile region meteorology, the hydrology, soil moisture content, agricultural with historical drought data, set up regional drought document data base;
S2, choose and drought assessment index and set up assessment indicator system:
Meteorological drought index, Hydrological drought indices and the agricultural drought indices of conversion zone drought character are chosen, region is set up and is done
Non-irrigated assessment indicator system;The meteorological drought index chooses precipitation anomaly percentage, precipitation row frequency and continuous diet without fishmeal, institute
State Hydrological drought indices and choose underground water buried depth, the agricultural drought indices choose soil moisture content;
S3, determine Arid Evaluation index system in Arid Evaluation index in corresponding arid grade threshold of each season;
Arid grade is divided into not arid, mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event;Occur according to damage caused by a drought
Damage caused by a drought is divided into spring drought, summer drought, autumn drought and winter drought by season;
Row's frequency is carried out to precipitation anomaly percentage, continuous diet without fishmeal and underground water buried depth using the curves of P- III, first chooses solid
Determine critical value of the corresponding value of frequency as mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event, then by with history
Typical dry year data is analyzed to be tested and corrects, final to determine arid grade threshold;The mild drought, in
The frequency that degree arid, severe drought and Serious Drought Event are fixed is respectively 60%, 75%, 90% and 95%;
S4, drought assessment grade and evaluation result are determined using frequency analysis method.
2. a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
It is 1 day that S1 collects the hydrology, the meteorological chronomere with soil moisture content data, and the hydrology is more than 30 with the time span of meteorological data
Year.
3. a kind of damage caused by a drought comprehensive estimation method based on multi objective according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterised in that described
Not arid, mild drought, mild drought, severe drought and Serious Drought Event are represented with 0,1,2,3,4 respectively in step S3.
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CN112990615A (en) * | 2021-05-24 | 2021-06-18 | 长江水利委员会长江科学院 | Drought early warning method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
CN116128371A (en) * | 2023-02-27 | 2023-05-16 | 水利部信息中心(水利部水文水资源监测预报中心) | Multi-index comprehensive drought monitoring and early warning system |
CN116128371B (en) * | 2023-02-27 | 2024-04-12 | 水利部信息中心(水利部水文水资源监测预报中心) | Multi-index comprehensive drought monitoring and early warning system |
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