CN106529832A - Relay protection system risk assessment method based on Markov reliability correction model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a relay protection system risk assessment method based on a Markov reliability correction model. The steps of the method include first obtaining relay protection system operation state information extracting relay protection operation influence parameters, and utilizing an analytic hierarchy process to assess state quantity weights; then calculating possible loss and failure probability according o a relay protection device possible loss model and failure probability model; performing correction processing on the obtained failure probability on the basis of the Markov reliability correction model; and finally obtaining a risk value quantifying a system risk level by a relay protection system risk assessment model. The relay protection system risk assessment method based on the Markov reliability correction model extracts the influence parameters hindering normal operation of the relay protection system, sets the state quantity weights according to the analytic hierarchy process, builds the scientific and reliable risk assessment model based on the Markov correction model, and thus can visually reflect the relay protection system operation state.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power system relay protection system state evaluation and risk assessment technology field, are that one kind is based on
The relay protection system methods of risk assessment of Markov reliability correction model.
Background technology
When power system is broken down or operates in unusual service condition, relay protection system should be in short period and shorter
In the range of faulty equipment is cut off automatically, or send signal to operator on duty, eliminate then unusual service condition root, it is final mitigate therefore
The impact that barrier equipment is normally run to non-faulting equipment, to ensure that adjoining area powers normally.Therefore, set up more accurately after
Electric protection system risk evaluation model and running status diagnostic analysiss are significant.
The reliability modification method of relay protection system risk evaluation model proposed by the present invention is in view of relay is protected at present
Protection unit Failure Probability Analysis are affected by lot of interfering factors, cause to be unable to accurate evaluation relay protection system risk level.
For this deviation, the present invention proposes a kind of relay protection system risk assessment based on Markov reliability correction model
Method.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to the deviation of the presence of relay protection system risk evaluation model described in background technology is corrected,
More accurately to assess the running status of relay protection system.Propose it is a kind of based on Markov reliability correction model after
Electric protection system methods of risk assessment.Extract and hinder the normal influence on system operation parameter of relay protection system, set according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Determine quantity of state weight, based on Markov correction model, set up the reliable risk assessment amount model of science, with intuitively reflect after
Electric protection system running status.
In order to realize foregoing invention purpose, the present invention is adopted the following technical scheme that：
A kind of relay protection system methods of risk assessment based on Markov reliability correction model, it is characterised in that
Comprise the following steps：
Step 1, the running state information for obtaining relay protection system；
Step 2, extraction relay protected operation affect parameter, set quantity of state weight, and based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to relay
In protection system running status, Different Effects parameter carries out weights evaluation, and concrete grammar includes：
Step 2.1, destination layer, criterion are divided into according to incidence relation according to decision objective and object and influence factor first
Layer, indicator layer and solution layer, draw hierarchical chart；
There is to relay protection device state the panel of expert for understanding in depth to set up weight panel of expert for step 2.2, invitation,
Contact in explicit evaluation system between each level；
Step 2.3, according to the correlation degree Judgement Matricies of last layer unit and this layer of correlation unit；
Step 2.4, the calculating for carrying out index weightses：Will determine that each column element of matrix makees normalized, its yuan
Element general term be：
By judgment matrix of every string Jing after normalized by row addition：
To vectorial W=(W1,W2,...,Wn)TMake normalized：
The concordance and reasonability of step 2.5, the Integral Thought for guaranteeing panel of expert and logic, carries out concordance inspection
Test；
Step 3, relay protection system possible loss model is set up, function expression is：
Wherein, n is fault type quantity；M is the possible loss number of types in fault type i；LE is protected for relay
The possible loss project evaluation chain value of shield equipment；
Step 4, relay protection system Probability Model is set up, failure probability is relay protection system reliability assessment
One important indicator, its value characterize the degree that system is damaged before moment t；Failure probability expression formula is：
Step 5, calculates relay protection system failure probability according to based on Markov reliability correction model, wherein, right
In train, failure probability expression formula is：
For parallel system, failure probability expression formula is：
Step 6, foundation relay protection risk evaluation model assessment relay protection system value-at-risk, relay protection system risk
Value expression is as follows：
R (t)=LE (t) × P (t) (16).
In a kind of above-mentioned relay protection system methods of risk assessment based on Markov reliability correction model, which is special
Levy and be：In the step 5, according to the tool for calculating relay protection system failure probability based on Markov reliability correction model
Body method includes：
Step 5.1, set up Lycoperdon polymorphum Vitt GM (1,1) model, according to relay protection system failure probability statistical data in recent years, can be with
Obtaining time response is：
Step 5.2, this is made regressive reduction, obtain the forecast model of original series：
Step 5.3, by residual absolute value ε(0)K () sets up grey forecasting model as original data series：
Step 5.4, Lycoperdon polymorphum Vitt Markov amendment forecast model are：
Wherein,It is original state during σ (k)=1, is next during σ (k)=- 1
State；
Step 5.5, obtain combining following criterion after discreet value, obtain revised failure probability；
Wherein, matched curve irrelevances of the S (n) for n sample, E (i) is the predictor error value of 1 year, and criterion is as follows：
Criterion one, as 5% ∩ E (i) ＜ 5% of S (n) ＜, it is believed that measured value is more accurate, in acceptable error scope
It is interior, now revised failure probability
Criterion two, when S (n) 5% ∩ E (i) >=5% of ＜, it is believed that there is larger error in measured value, now revised mistake
Effect probability
The present invention hinders the normal influence on system operation parameter of relay protection system by extracting, and sets state according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Amount weight, based on Markov correction model, sets up the reliable risk assessment amount model of science, can intuitively reflect that relay is protected
Protecting system running status.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is reliability correction model system structure scattergram.
Fig. 2 is the relay protection methods of risk assessment implementing procedure figure based on reliability correction model.
Fig. 3 is the factor for affecting relay protection system risk assessment.
Fig. 4 is analytic hierarchy structure figure.
Fig. 5 is two status system figures.
Fig. 6 is train reliability block diagram.
Fig. 7 is parallel system reliability block diagram.
Fig. 8 is regional power grid A relay protection system probability of malfunction prognostic charts.
Fig. 9 is regional power grid B relay protection system probability of malfunction prognostic charts.
Specific embodiment
Below by embodiment, and accompanying drawing is combined, technical scheme is described in further detail.
In Fig. 1, Ι, Ι Ι, Ι Ι Ι represent main website layer, communication layers and relay protection device layer respectively.Wherein, 1,2,3 is at monitoring
Reason center；4th, 5,6 is communication controler；7th, 8,9 is relay protection device.
Embodiment：
First, with reference to Fig. 2, the present invention is described in detail.
As shown in Fig. 2 a kind of modification method of relay protection system reliability model of the present invention, comprises the following steps：
Step 1：Obtain the running state information of relay protection system；As relay protection system risk evaluation model is related to
Factor is more, and its modeling, selecting index need to support according to substantial amounts of service data.Obtain relay protection system running status letter
Breath both can affect parameter species and weight to provide foundation for risk evaluation model, it is also possible to carry out health status to electrical equipment
Diagnosis.
Step 2：Extracting relay protected operation affects parameter, sets quantity of state weight；Affect relay protection risk assessment
Factor is more, including communication channel, primary system running status, equipment self-operating stability and anthropic factor etc..Relay
The influence factor of protection system itself includes soft and hardware working condition.Wherein, the reliability of software depend on system be input into and
Software design etc.；The reliability of hardware depends on each basic element of character and first closes circuit design etc..
As shown in figure 3, according to China's relay protection system operation characteristic, affecting the factor of relay protection system risk assessment
Can be divided into it is following some：(1) device hardware；(2) device software；(3) correlation such as transformer primary equipment；(4) secondary circuit；
(5) relay protection constant value.
Step 3：Carry out relay protection system running status assessment；The relay protection risk evaluation model in step 2 is learnt
Major influence factors after, need to consider the relation between the relation of quantity of state and evaluation objective and each quantity of state.In view of shape
State measurer has different dimensions and there is kinematic nonlinearity relation, needs for these quantity of states to be placed on calculating in an appraisement system.
The characteristics of having multimode amount and complicated internal structure for relay protection device, using the layer based on expert judgments
Fractional analysis, by state statistics of variables and analysis, building layered device quantity of state index evaluation system.To the equipment style
When danger is assessed, modification need to be adjusted according to the relation between quantity of state and good and bad degree to weight, so as to more science and
Assessment is made to relay protection device state risk accurately, there is provided the outstanding resolving ideas of comparison.
Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) main thought is to be layered goal in research, i.e., be difference according to problem and target by index decomposition
Level, determines including the relatively important weights of bottom (scheme, measure etc.) and high-rise (general objective).For relay protection device wind
Dangerous evaluation system constitutes multi-level simulation tool structural model.The advantage that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) possesses have it is following some：(1) generally adapt to
Property；(2) terseness；(3) systematicness.
The concrete operation step of weighted value is as follows to be determined to relay protection device quantity of state using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)：
First, with reference to decision-making target, influence factor, solution are divided into destination layer, criterion according to interrelated situation
Layer and solution layer, draw hierarchical chart as shown in Figure 3.
Then, as shown in figure 4, destination layer is the two-level appraisement included in relay protection device one-level evaluation object in scheme
Object, what destination layer was represented is decision-making purpose.Rule layer represents influence factor and decision criteria, is relay protection in this programme
The history run state of equipment, maintenance diagnostic state and actual operating mode etc..In order to further refine rule layer, subordinate is set up
In the lowest-rank element of the indicator layer element of rule layer corresponding element, the concrete analysis factor of decision problem is characterized, be to evaluate relay
The important references index of protection equipment running status and fault diagnosis.Solution layer refers to decision-making optional program.
And then after relation of the panel of expert between each level of explicit evaluation system, consider relay protection device reality
Working condition and itself working experience are assessed to running status marking.It is weighted quantification treatment and obtains end-state scoring.
According to last layer unit and the correlation degree Judgement Matricies of this layer of correlation unit.
Carry out the calculating of index weightses, will determine that each column element of matrix makees normalized, its element it is general
Xiang Wei：
By judgment matrix of every string Jing after normalized by row addition：
To vectorial W=(W1,W2,...,Wn)TMake normalized：
For guaranteeing the Integral Thought of panel of expert and the concordance of logic and reasonability, consistency check is carried out.
Step 4：Set up relay protection system possible loss model；In order to intuitively show risk this abstract conception, to which
Carry out quantum chemical method.Relay protection device possible loss includes direct losses and indirect loss.Direct losses can be according to its valency
Value information directly quantifies, and indirect loss refers to because of electrical network caused by relay protection device failure and user's loss, is that relay protection sets
The major part of standby loss appraisal.
Relay protection device possible loss pattern function expresses formula：
Wherein, n is fault type quantity；M is the possible loss number of types in fault type i；LE is protected for relay
The possible loss project evaluation chain value of shield equipment.
Step 5：Set up relay protection system Probability Model；Failure probability is relay protection system reliability assessment
One important indicator, its value characterize the degree that system is damaged before moment t.Failure probability expression formula is：
Wherein, λ (t) is liquefaction probability function, represents that component or system break down in t.
Step 6：Relay protection system failure probability is calculated according to based on Markov reliability correction model；Markov
Theory can both have been analyzed discrete stochastic variable and can also analyze continuous random variabless.What is used herein is Markov approach
Scatter analyses it is theoretical, i.e., based on markovian reliability of relay protection correction model.
By taking two state space graphs as an example, corresponding weight value and shift direction are as shown in Figure 5.System initial state is state 1, then
After unit interval, system has P12Probability be transferred to state 2, and have P11Probability rest on state 1.If being
The original state of system is state 2, then, after unit interval, system has P21Probability be transferred to state 1, and have P22's
Probability rests on state 2.
It is expressed in matrix as：
In formula, PijIt is probability of state i to state j.The situation of n state is generalized to, following expression matrix can be obtained
Formula：
For the train in Fig. 6, failure probability expression formula is：
For the parallel system in Fig. 7, failure probability expression formula is：
Markov correction model specific implementation step is as follows：
(1) (1,1) model, according to relay protection system failure probability statistical data in recent years, can be obtained to set up Lycoperdon polymorphum Vitt GM
Time response is：
(2) make regressive reduction to this, obtain the forecast model of original series：
(3) by residual absolute value ε(0)K () sets up grey forecasting model as original data series：
(4) Lycoperdon polymorphum Vitt Markov amendment forecast model is：
Wherein,It is original state during σ (k)=1, is next during σ (k)=- 1
State.
Obtain after discreet value, combining following criterion by above-mentioned steps, revised failure probability can be obtained.
Wherein, matched curve irrelevances of the S (n) for n sample, E (i) is the predictor error value of 1 year.Criterion is as follows：
1st, as 5% ∩ E (i) ＜ 5% of S (n) ＜, it is believed that measured value is more accurate, in the range of acceptable error, now
Revised failure probability
2nd, when S (n) 5% ∩ E (i) >=5% of ＜, it is believed that measured value has larger error, now revised failure is general
Rate
Step 7：According to relay protection risk evaluation model assessment relay protection system integrated risk amount.
2nd, it is analyzed with reference to two regional power grid running examples.
The comprehensive relay protection device for microcomputer of model NR-600 is chosen, regional power grid A is obtained and is used in 2004-2015
Time limit failure rate statistics is as shown in table 1.
(the average event of 1 regional power grid A protective relaying device 2004-2015 service life failure rate statistical tables of table
The unit of barrier rate is times/year platform)
| Time | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| Probability of malfunction | 0.02932 | 0.08404 | 0.03942 | 0.07041 | 0.11509 | 0.15405 |
| Time | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Probability of malfunction | 0.43497 | 0.96262 | 1.21868 | 1.48761 | 2.74746 | 3.65643 |
Initial value is input in simulated program, according to above-mentioned calculation procedure, is drawn based on Markov grey forecasting model
Probability of malfunction in 2016 discreet value be 10.3878 times/year of platforms, and 2016 measured value be 9.9864 times/year of platforms.
Matched curve and initial parameter are as shown in Figure 8.
The sample data of totally 12 years is calculated from 2004 to 2015 years, now n=12, S can be obtained through calculatingA(12)=
1.7964%.
The contrast measured value of 2016 makees correction model accuracy test with discreet value, and calculation error can obtain EA(2016)=
4.0194%.
According to the revised failure probability of relay protection system of 1 attainable region domain electrical network A of criterion it is：
PA(2016)=10.3878 (16)
The comprehensive relay protection device for microcomputer of model NR-600 is chosen, regional power grid B is obtained and is used in 2004-2015
Time limit failure rate statistics is as shown in table 1.
(the average event of 2 regional power grid B protective relaying device 2004-2015 service life failure rate statistical tables of table
The unit of barrier rate is times/year platform)
| Time | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| Probability of malfunction | 0.03249 | 0.05248 | 0.05722 | 0.08942 | 0.12435 | 0.17245 |
| Time | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Probability of malfunction | 0.52071 | 0.99427 | 1.23425 | 1.56424 | 2.84523 | 3.93275 |
Initial value is input in simulated program, according to above-mentioned calculation procedure, is drawn based on Markov grey forecasting model
Probability of malfunction in 2016 discreet value be 12.2791 times/year of platforms, and 2016 measured value be 11.1872 times/year
Platform.
Matched curve and initial parameter are as shown in Figure 9.
The sample data of totally 12 years is calculated from 2004 to 2015 years, now n=12, S can be obtained through calculatingB(12)=
1.8519%.
The contrast measured value of 2016 makees correction model accuracy test with discreet value, and calculation error can obtain EB(2016)=
9.7603%.
According to the revised failure probability of relay protection system of 2 attainable region domain electrical network B of criterion it is：
PB(2016)=11.7332 (17)
Specific embodiment described herein is only explanation for example spiritual to the present invention.Technology neck belonging to of the invention
The technical staff in domain can be made various modifications or supplement or replaced using similar mode to described specific embodiment
Generation, but without departing from the spiritual of the present invention or surmount scope defined in appended claims.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of relay protection system methods of risk assessment based on Markov reliability correction model, it is characterised in that bag
Include following steps：
Step 1, the running state information for obtaining relay protection system；
Step 2, extraction relay protected operation affect parameter, set quantity of state weight, and based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to relay protection
In system running state, Different Effects parameter carries out weights evaluation, and concrete grammar includes：
Step 2.1, first according to decision objective and object and influence factor according to incidence relation be divided into destination layer, rule layer,
Indicator layer and solution layer, draw hierarchical chart；
There is to relay protection device state the panel of expert for understanding in depth to set up weight panel of expert for step 2.2, invitation, clearly
Contact in appraisement system between each level；
Step 2.3, according to the correlation degree Judgement Matricies of last layer unit and this layer of correlation unit；
Step 2.4, the calculating for carrying out index weightses：Will determine that each column element of matrix makees normalized, its element
General term is：
By judgment matrix of every string Jing after normalized by row addition：
To vectorial W=(W1,W2,...,Wn)TMake normalized：
The concordance and reasonability of step 2.5, the Integral Thought for guaranteeing panel of expert and logic, carries out consistency check；
Step 3, relay protection system possible loss model is set up, function expression is：
Wherein, n is fault type quantity；M is the possible loss number of types in fault type i；LE is set for relay protection
Standby possible loss project evaluation chain value；
Step 4, relay protection system Probability Model is set up, failure probability is of relay protection system reliability assessment
Important indicator, its value characterize the degree that system is damaged before moment t；Failure probability expression formula is：
Step 5, calculates relay protection system failure probability according to based on Markov reliability correction model, wherein, for string
Contact is united, and failure probability expression formula is：
For parallel system, failure probability expression formula is：
Step 6, foundation relay protection risk evaluation model assessment relay protection system value-at-risk, relay protection system value-at-risk table
It is as follows up to formula：
R (t)=LE (t) × P (t) (16).
2. a kind of relay protection system risk assessment based on Markov reliability correction model according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that in the step 5, loses according to relay protection system is calculated based on Markov reliability correction model
The concrete grammar of effect probability includes：
Step 5.1, (1,1) model, according to relay protection system failure probability statistical data in recent years, can be obtained to set up Lycoperdon polymorphum Vitt GM
Time response is：
Step 5.2, this is made regressive reduction, obtain the forecast model of original series：
Step 5.3, by residual absolute value ε(0)K () sets up grey forecasting model as original data series：
Step 5.4, Lycoperdon polymorphum Vitt Markov amendment forecast model are：
Wherein,It is original state during σ (k)=1, is NextState during σ (k)=- 1；
Step 5.5, obtain combining following criterion after discreet value, obtain revised failure probability；
Wherein, matched curve irrelevances of the S (n) for n sample, E (i) is the predictor error value of 1 year, and criterion is as follows：
Criterion one, as 5% ∩ E (i) ＜ 5% of S (n) ＜, it is believed that measured value is more accurate, in the range of acceptable error, this
When revised failure probability
Criterion two, when S (n) 5% ∩ E (i) >=5% of ＜, it is believed that there is larger error in measured value, now revised failure is general
Rate
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