CN106408213A - Method and system for cascading mountain flood disaster risk analysis - Google Patents
Method and system for cascading mountain flood disaster risk analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for cascading mountain flood disaster risk analysis. The method comprises steps: disaster-forming layer parameters, disaster-causing layer parameters and disaster-bearing layer parameters are acquired; according to the above each-layer parameters, through a first preset algorithm, the intra-layer weight of the each-layer parameters is calculated respectively; according to the each-layer parameters, through a second preset algorithm, a first inter-layer weight of the each-layer parameters is acquired; according to the intra-layer weight and the first inter-layer weight of the each-layer parameters, a first comprehensive weight of the each-layer parameters is calculated respectively; and according to the disaster-forming layer parameters, the disaster-causing layer parameters and the disaster-bearing layer parameters and the first comprehensive weights of the disaster-forming layer parameters, the disaster-causing layer parameters and the disaster-bearing layer parameters, mountain flood risk danger indexes are calculated. The parameters of the disaster bearer are included in the mountain flood risk analysis indexes, and more accurate mountain flood risk analysis indexes can be given according to specific features of an easy mountain flood occurring area.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to mountain flood technical Analysis field, more particularly to tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method and
System.
Background technology
The Mountain Area area ratio of China is great, and mountain flood and geological disaster takes place frequently.The early-warning and predicting work of mountain flood is water conservancy
The important process that meteorological department undertakes, is also that China prevents and reduces natural disasters the important ring in work system.Sending out with economic society
Exhibition, Mountain Area population, property and asset density constantly increase, and the degree of risk of mountain flood and loss also dramatically increase.Therefore,
Effectively cope with sudden mountain flood, raising disaster monitoring, pre-alerting ability are most important for the preventing and treating of China's mountain flood.
In recent years, the water conservancy meteorological department of domestic multiple provinces and cities, the space-time characteristic to local mountain flood distribution and precipitation
Process has been carried out statistical analysiss or has been carried out using hydrological model that flow threshold is counter to push away the methods such as rainfall threshold value, establishes based on critical
The mountain flood early-warning and predicting operation system of rainfall.At present, the method for domestic commonly used mountain torrents early-warning and predicting has following three
Kind：Experimental forecast method, hydrological simulation method and mountain torrents Critical Rainfall method (FFG).The principle of these three methods is summarized as follows：
(1) experimental forecast method：For the middle small watershed with certain series of hydrological data, available history big flood data is divided
Drainage area-magnanimity-flood peak relation under analysis Rainfall Condition, sets up the basin early-warning and predicting side based on quantum of rainfall and flood peak relation
Case.
(2) hydrological simulation method：Generate Digital Valley using high accuracy DEM, inquire into runoff with hydrological model, carrying out confluxes drills
Calculate, draw the flood forecasting data such as the discharge process of control section (typically grid Outlet Section).Water according to real-time monitoring
Civilian data combines the rainfall runoff situation calculating, and is that early warning information is issued after flow reaches early warning limit value.
(3) mountain torrents Critical Rainfall method (FFG)：When rainfall value leads to basin total Water to exceed the maximum amount of water that can hold
When, that is, issue mountain torrents early warning.Typically according to history mountain torrents, a situation arises and corresponding precipitation event and land surface condition combination,
Carry out the determination of Critical Rainfall by methods such as recurrence, statistics, hydrological analysis and micro-judgments.
In three of the above method, experimental forecast method principle is simple, but needs enough actual measurement hydrological datas and rainfall data
Support, the suitability and generalization not strong.Hydrological simulation method accuracy is high, but the control section that there is mountain torrents ditch region is chosen and is stranded
Difficult, hydrological model run time causes early warning to issue the problems such as delay.And mountain torrents Critical Rainfall method is corresponding by rainfall
There are mountain torrents in relatively the judging whether of region threshold, principle enforcement that is simple and being easy to early-warning and predicting is forecast by U.S. river
" Flash Flood Guidance " (FFG) that center (RFCs) is developed, through the development in more than 40 years, is widely used at present
The ground such as Central America, Southeast Asia, Korea S, South Africa, create including " Flash Flood Potential Index " (FFPI),
" Gridded Flash Flood Guidance " (GFFG) and " Distributed Flash Flood Guidance "
(DFFG) in a series of interior mountain torrents early warning index systems, can be used as the ginseng of mountain flood assessment and risk analysis system research and development
Examine.
Usually, above-mentioned mountain flood assessment and risk analysis method, after choosing an assessment area, to geological conditions
And meteorological condition is analyzed, carry out in a large area during mountain flood assessment it is impossible to according to mountain torrents Yi Fa area
The practical situation in domain, such as according to the economy of region, demographic conditions etc. and geological conditions or meteorological unrelated condition etc., is given
More accurately mountain flood assessment and risk analyses.
Content of the invention
Based on this it is necessary to be directed in conventional art it is impossible to easily send out the economy in region for mountain torrents, population characteristic provides more
Accurately the problem of mountain flood assessment and risk analyses, provides a kind of tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method and system.
The present invention provides a kind of tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method, and methods described includes：
Obtain pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default first algorithm, calculate respectively
Weights in the layer of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default second algorithm, obtain described
First interlayer weights of pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause weights and the first interlayer weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter, point
Do not calculate the first comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter
Comprehensive weights, calculate mountain torrents Risk index with the first of hazard-affected layer parameter.
Wherein in an embodiment, methods described also includes：
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter, by default second algorithm, obtain described pregnant calamity layer parameter
Second interlayer weights and the second interlayer weights of described cause calamity layer parameter；
Weights and the second interlayer weights in layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter second is comprehensive
Close weights, and according to weights and the second interlayer weights in the described layer causing calamity layer parameter, calculate and described cause the of calamity layer parameter
Two comprehensive weights；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, described cause calamity layer parameter and described
Cause the second comprehensive weights of calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain flood Danger Indexes.
Wherein in an embodiment, methods described also includes：
Weights in layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents potential danger index.
Wherein in an embodiment, described pregnant calamity layer parameter includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and soil profit
Use type.
Wherein in an embodiment, described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter.
Wherein in an embodiment, described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter.
Wherein in an embodiment, described flood control parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
Wherein in an embodiment, described default first algorithm includes entropy assessment.
Wherein in an embodiment, described default second algorithm includes analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method provided by the present invention, the mountain torrents Risk index calculating,
By being calculated pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter together with hazard-affected layer parameter, the parameter of hazard-affected body mountain torrents are counted
Risk analyses index, more can easily send out the feature of the hazard-affected body in region according to mountain torrents, provide more accurately mountain torrents risk analyses and refer to
Mark.
In the embodiment that the present invention provides, by hazard-affected body according to GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter
Divided, in terms of economic development and demographic factor etc., hazard-affected body can be considered, provide the standard for zones of different
True mountain torrents risk analyses index.
In the embodiment that the present invention provides, by described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, point
It is not associated calculating using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy assessment, be given and both can be used alone, have incidence relation can be together again
The tandem type mountain flood risk analyses index using, can meet the mountain torrents risk analyses application of different demands.
The present invention also provides a kind of tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system, including：
Parameter acquisition module, for obtaining pregnant calamity layer parameter, causing calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
Weight computing module in layer, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by pre-
If the first algorithm, calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, cause weights in the layer of calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
First interlayer weight computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, leading to
Cross default second algorithm, obtain the first interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
First comprehensive weights computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter
Weights and the first interlayer weights in layer, calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter respectively first is comprehensive
Close weights；
Risk indicator computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and described
First comprehensive weights of pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
Wherein in an embodiment, also include the second interlayer weight computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter,
Cause calamity layer parameter, by default second algorithm, obtain the second interlayer weights and the described cause calamity layer ginseng of described pregnant calamity layer parameter
Second interlayer weights of number；
Second comprehensive weights computing module, for weights and the second interlayer weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter,
Calculate the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, and according to weights and the second interlayer power in the layer of described cause calamity layer parameter
Value, calculates described the second comprehensive weights causing calamity layer parameter；
Disaster index computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter,
Described the second comprehensive weights causing calamity layer parameter and described cause calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain flood Danger Indexes.
Wherein in an embodiment, also include：Potential index computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and institute
State weights in the layer of pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents potential danger index.
Wherein in an embodiment, described pregnant calamity layer parameter includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and soil profit
Use type.
Wherein in an embodiment, described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter.
Wherein in an embodiment, described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter.
Wherein in an embodiment, described flood control parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
Wherein in an embodiment, described default first algorithm includes entropy assessment.
Wherein in an embodiment, described default second algorithm includes analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system provided by the present invention, the mountain torrents Risk index calculating,
By being calculated pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter together with hazard-affected layer parameter, the parameter of hazard-affected body mountain torrents are counted
Risk analyses index, more can easily send out the hazard-affected body specific features in region, provide more accurately mountain torrents risk analyses according to mountain torrents
Index.
In the embodiment that the present invention provides, by hazard-affected body according to GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter
Divided, in terms of economic development and demographic factor etc., hazard-affected body can be considered, provide the standard for zones of different
True mountain torrents risk analyses index.
In the embodiment that the present invention provides, by described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, point
It is not associated calculating using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy assessment, be given and both can be used alone, have incidence relation can be together again
The tandem type mountain flood risk analyses index using, can meet the mountain torrents risk analyses application of different demands.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method flow chart in an embodiment；
Fig. 2 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method flow chart in another embodiment；
Fig. 3 A and Fig. 3 B is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method example figure in another embodiment；
Fig. 4 A and Fig. 4 B is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method example figure in another embodiment；
Fig. 5 A and Fig. 5 B is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method example figure in another embodiment；
Fig. 6 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method example figure in another embodiment；
Fig. 7 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method flow chart in another embodiment；
Fig. 8 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system structure chart in an embodiment；
Fig. 9 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system structure chart in another embodiment.
Specific embodiment
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention become more apparent, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples pair
The present invention is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein is only in order to explain the present invention, not
For limiting the present invention.
Fig. 1 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method flow chart that Fig. 1 is in an embodiment, as shown in Figure 1
Tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method includes：
Step S10, obtains pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter.
Specifically, described pregnant calamity layer parameter is the geographic factor forming mountain flood, and described cause calamity layer parameter is to lead to mountain
Factor such as the precipitation such as inclusion is astronomical, meteorological of flood, described hazard-affected layer parameter is by affected having a human living of mountain torrents or to divide
It is furnished with the region of social property, such as the population of region and Economic Development Status.
Further, described pregnant calamity layer parameter includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and land use pattern；Institute
State cause calamity layer parameter and include precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter；Described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, people
Mouth density parameter and flood control parameter；Described flood control parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
Wherein, adoptable soil types data has FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation) (FAO) and Vienna international applications system to grind
Study carefully constructed HWSD Soil Database (Harmonized World Soil Database) 1.2 versions；Adoptable vegetation
Cover the L3 data that data has the continuous field of land vehicles (VCF) of Moderate Imaging Spectroradiomete (MODIS) product, resolution is
Global 250 meters/year；Land use pattern is thinking and land use pattern can be divided into following a few big class：1) forest land；2) shrub
Ground；3) meadow；4) pasture or farming land；5) exploitation land used or highway, the probability that the corresponding landslide of this five big class occurs is got over
Come bigger.
Described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter.Wherein, described precipitation parameter is
The numerical value of the rainfall in certain time；Raininess parameter is the rainfall intensity value in certain time, and history precipitation parameter can adopt
The precipitation data in flood season in former years.
Described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter, and described flood control parameter includes controlling flood
Engineering parameter and flood control funding parameters.Wherein, described flood control works parameter includes protective slope structure, mountain torrents ditch control structure or mountain torrents
The engineering parameters such as ditch ruggedized construction, described flood control funding parameters include government for the fund input of mountain torrents preventing and treating, and such as government uses
In construction communication apparatus and network (as mobile terminals such as broadcasting station, special messenger's telephone for special use, mobile phone etc.), mountain flood relevant knowledge
Popularization activity (as tissue lecture, manoeuvre and the corresponding promotional pamphlet of making etc.), or self-control rainfall metering alarm device etc..
Step S20, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default first algorithm,
Calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, cause weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter.
Specifically, described default first algorithm is Objective Weight Evaluation Method, including entropy assessment.Substantially former according to theory of information
The explanation of reason, information is a tolerance of system order degree, and entropy is a tolerance of the unordered degree of system；If the letter of index
Breath entropy is less, and the quantity of information that this index provides is bigger, and played in overall merit, effect should be bigger, and weight just should be higher.
Using entropy assessment calculate each described parameter entropy weight when, need described each parameter is arranged, arrange for tool
There is the parameter of single influence factor.
For example, each parameter is individually carried out with 1-10 and divides system marking, according to following principle：
(1) soil types
Because, in the soil of high sticky content, lower infiltration rate rate is relatively low, and therefore sticky content is higher, there are mountain torrents
Probability is bigger.Therefore, the magnitude range according to the sticky content in the 30cm soil of top layer, is divided at equal intervals, is divided into
10 classes, give the desired value of the single influence factor of 1-10 from low to high successively.
As partly shown in (a) in Fig. 3 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, the rank that soil types is carried out 1-10 is drawn
Point.
(2) vegetative coverage degree
Interplantation trapped ability in region be can consider and is directly proportional to vegetative coverage area, and therefore, our just vegetation are covered
Lid percentage ratio is divided at equal intervals, altogether for 10 classes, gives single influence factor's desired value of 1-10 from high to low successively.This
Outward, the region being 200% in vegetative coverage percentage ratio, characterizes water body, therefore these area assignments are 1, forms vegetative coverage and makees
Indicator layer for single influence factor.
As partly shown in (d) in Fig. 3 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, vegetative coverage situation is carried out the level of 1-10
Do not divide.
(3) gradient
The underlying surface gradient is just highly advantageous to the generation of mountain torrents more than 30 degree, therefore, more than 30 degree of the gradient is considered as referring to
Scale value is 10 region, and remaining region (the 0-30 degree gradient) is divided into 9 parts at equal intervals, and imparting from low to high is worth for 1-9
Single influence factor's desired value, formed the gradient as single influence factor indicator layer.
As partly shown in (b) in Fig. 3 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, the rank that gradient situation is carried out 1-10 is drawn
Point.
(4) land type
Land use pattern is thinking and land use pattern can be divided into following a few big class：1) forest land；2) shrub ground；3)
Meadow；4) pasture or farming land；5) exploitation land used or highway, the probability that the corresponding landslide of this five big class occurs is increasingly
Greatly.Because mountain torrents and landslide are generally with occurring, form Preliminary study on geological hazard chains, this rule also can conduct therefore in mountain flood
The marking foundation of single influence factor's desired value, table 1 provides the land cover pattern product of the L3 whole world 500 meters/year according to MODIS
IGBP land cover classification when all types of corresponding desired values.
As partly shown in (c) in Fig. 3 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, the rank that land type is carried out 1-10 is drawn
Point.
The marking table of (table 1) land type：
(5) precipitation is related
Precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter according to preset standard, can carry out the classification of rainfall size,
The classification of raininess parameter and the analysis of history precipitation parameter.
The index of conventional measurement rainfall size includes the rainfall of 6 hours and 24 hours, the conventional finger weighing raininess
Mark includes the rainfall of 0.5 hour, 1 hour and 3 hours, and the index of conventional measurement history precipitation data includes the average of flood season
Intra day ward.Freely can be applied in combination according to actual demand.
As partly shown in (a), (b) and (c) in Fig. 4 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, will be per day for flood season, maximum
24 hours precipitation values and maximum 6 hours precipitation values carry out the partition of the level of 1-10.
(6) population density
Population density is standardized to 1-10, forms population density as the indicator layer of influence factor.
As partly shown in (b) in Fig. 5 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, Yunnan Province's population density is carried out 1-10's
Partition of the level.
(7)GDP
GDP is standardized to 1-10, forms GDP as the indicator layer of influence factor.
As partly shown in (a) in Fig. 5 A, Yunnan Province is divided into after grid, Yunnan Province GDP is carried out the rank of 1-10
Divide.
(8) the flood control structural measures of flood control of parametric statisticss survey region and the infusion of financial resources of non-engineering measure, carry out standard
Change to 1-10, form flood control measure as the indicator layer of influence factor.Specifically, for structural measures of flood control part, can will have
The parameter setting of corresponding structural measures of flood control is 1, and the parameter setting not having corresponding structural measures of flood control is 0.For anti-
Big vast engineering measure part, according to the proportionate relationship of fund input amount and mountain torrents deathtrap area, the non-engineering setting 1-10 is arranged
Apply parameter.
The weight that entropy assessment is determined is designated as V：
V=(v1,v2,...vi,...vn), wherein VnEntropy weight for described each parameter；
Then the calculation procedure of the entropy weight of described each parameter is：
First, by a larger region division be multiple geographic grids, according to the specific parameter situation of each grid,
Provide the distribution of different parameters corresponding difference geographic grid, such as by existing m grid to be evaluated, n influence factor's index, formed former
Beginning data matrix R=(rij)m×n:
It is wherein rijThe evaluation of estimate of i-th grid under j-th index.
(1) calculate the proportion p of the desired value of i-th grid under j-th indexij：
(2) calculate the entropy e of j-th indexj：
Wherein, k=1/lnm.
(3) calculate the entropy weight v of j-th indexj:
Step S30, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default second algorithm,
Obtain the first interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter.
Specifically, described default second algorithm is subjective weights Evaluation Method, including analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Described level divides
Analysis method passes through Judgement Matricies, obtains eigenvalue of maximum and its corresponding characteristic vector, after normalization, as a certain level
The relative importance weights value of the index of correlation for last layer time for the judge index, and level weight value.
Using described pregnant calamity ambient parameter as one layer, described Flood inducing factors parameter as one layer, make by described hazard-affected body parameter
For one layer, every layer of parameter is associated analyzing, every layer of the first interlayer weights can be given according to default standard, and institute
The the first interlayer weights stating each layer add up to 1.
First interlayer weights of described each layer are recorded as U, U=(u1,u2,...,ui,...,un), wherein, UnFor every layer
First interlayer weights of each parameter.
Step S40, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes weights and the first interlayer in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter
Weights, calculate the first comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter respectively.
Specifically, it is designated as W using the first comprehensive weights that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy assessment comprehensively obtain,
W=(w1,w2,...,wi,...wn) wherein n be different parameters.
wi=aui+(1-a)vi
A is generally drawn by susceptibility assays.
Step S50, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause
Calamity layer parameter and the first comprehensive weights of hazard-affected layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
Specifically, by described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter are caused, each the first corresponding synthesis
After weights are calculated, you can draw mountain torrents Risk index.
Hazard-affected body is divided by the present embodiment according to GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter, can be from economy
Development and the aspect such as demographic factor consider to hazard-affected body, provides the actual directive significance that has for zones of different, more
The accurately mountain torrents risk indicator of mountain flood break-up value.
Fig. 2 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method flow chart in another embodiment, cascade as shown in Figure 2
Formula mountain flood risk analysis method includes：
Step S10, obtains pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter.
Step S20, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default first algorithm,
Calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, cause weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter.
Step S30, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default second algorithm,
Obtain the first interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter.
Step S40, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes weights and the first interlayer in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter
Weights, calculate the first comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter respectively.
Step S50, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause
Calamity layer parameter and the first comprehensive weights of hazard-affected layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
Step S30a, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, causes calamity layer parameter, by default second algorithm, obtains described pregnant
Second interlayer weights of calamity layer parameter and the second interlayer weights of described cause calamity layer parameter.
Specifically, when possessing complete meteorological data (causing calamity layer parameter) in a region, can be according in described region
Palegeology factor (pregnant calamity layer parameter) and described meteorological data, you can using method provided by the present invention, calculate and occur
The danger of mountain flood.
Only utilize pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter, using interlayer analytic process, calculate second between described two layer parameters
Interlayer weights, and so that the second interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter and the second interlayer weights of described cause calamity layer parameter is added up to
1.
Step S40a, weights and the second interlayer weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate described pregnant calamity layer ginseng
The comprehensive weights of the second of number, and according to weights and the second interlayer weights in the layer of described cause calamity layer parameter, calculate described cause calamity
The comprehensive weights of the second of layer parameter.
Step S50a, according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, described cause calamity layer ginseng
Number and described the second comprehensive weights causing calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain flood Danger Indexes.
Step S30b, weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate the potential danger of mountain torrents
Dangerous index.
Specifically, in the case of meteorological data (the causing calamity layer parameter) disappearance in a region, can be according to described pregnant calamity layer
Parameter and default first algorithm, calculate mountain torrents potential danger index, described mountain torrents potential danger index, can be used to weigh one
The potential danger of the possible outburst mountain torrents in individual region.
In the above-described embodiments, tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method provided by the present invention, can be according to pregnant calamity layer
The actual acquisition situation of parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected body parameter, is given and both can be used alone, have incidence relation can again
The tandem type mountain flood risk analyses index being used together, is referred to using the mountain torrents potential danger that pregnant calamity layer parameter calculates including
Mark, the mountain flood Danger Indexes being calculated using pregnant calamity layer parameter and cause calamity layer parameter, and according to pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer ginseng
Number and the mountain torrents Risk index of hazard-affected body parameter calculating, can meet under data acquisition condition, the mountain torrents wind of different demands
Danger analysis application.
Fig. 7 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method flow chart in another embodiment, cascade as shown in Figure 7
Formula mountain flood risk analysis method, the precipitation parameter in the geology terrain parameter of pregnant calamity layer parameter and cause calamity layer parameter is made
For causing the risk factor of mountain torrents risk, and the vulnerability according to hazard-affected body, after being further subdivided into vulnerability and recovery capability,
Calculated using GDP, population density and flood control measure.Give the method analysis process figure of another embodiment of the present invention.
Tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method provided by the present invention, can be according to pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter
With the actual acquisition situation of hazard-affected body parameter, be given and both can be used alone, there is the cascade that incidence relation can be used together again
Formula mountain flood risk analyses index, including the mountain torrents potential danger index only utilizing pregnant calamity layer parameter to calculate, using pregnant calamity layer
Parameter and the mountain flood Danger Indexes causing the calculating of calamity layer parameter, and according to pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected body ginseng
The mountain torrents Risk index that number calculates, can meet under data acquisition condition, the mountain torrents risk analyses application of different demands.
Fig. 8 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system structure chart in an embodiment, tandem type as shown in Figure 8
Mountain flood risk analysis system includes：
Parameter acquisition module 10, for obtaining pregnant calamity layer parameter, causing calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；Described pregnant calamity layer ginseng
Number includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and land use pattern.Described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess
Parameter and history precipitation parameter.Described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter.Described flood control
Parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
Weight computing module 20 in layer, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, passing through
Default first algorithm, calculates described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, causes weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter；Described pre-
If the first algorithm include entropy assessment.
First interlayer weight computing module 30, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter,
By default second algorithm, obtain the first interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；Institute
State default second algorithm and include analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
First comprehensive weights computing module 40, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter
Layer in weights and the first interlayer weights, calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, cause the first of calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter
Comprehensive weights.
Risk indicator computing module 50, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and institute
State the first comprehensive weights of pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
Tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system provided by the present invention, by hazard-affected body according to GDP parameter, population density
Parameter and flood control parameter are divided, and in terms of economic development and demographic factor etc., hazard-affected body can be considered, provide pin
The actual directive significance that has to zones of different, the more accurately mountain torrents risk indicator of mountain flood break-up value.
Fig. 9 is the tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system structure chart in another embodiment, cascade as shown in Figure 9
Formula mountain flood risk analysis system includes：
Parameter acquisition module 10, for obtaining pregnant calamity layer parameter, causing calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；Described pregnant calamity layer ginseng
Number includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and land use pattern.Described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess
Parameter and history precipitation parameter.Described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter.Described flood control
Parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
Weight computing module 20 in layer, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, passing through
Default first algorithm, calculates described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, causes weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter；Described pre-
If the first algorithm include entropy assessment.
First interlayer weight computing module 30, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter,
By default second algorithm, obtain the first interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；Institute
State default second algorithm and include analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
First comprehensive weights computing module 40, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter
Layer in weights and the first interlayer weights, calculate described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, cause the first of calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter
Comprehensive weights.
Risk indicator computing module 50, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and institute
State the first comprehensive weights of pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
Second interlayer weight computing module 60, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter, by default the
Two algorithms, obtain the second interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter and the second interlayer weights of described cause calamity layer parameter；
Second comprehensive weights computing module 70, for weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and the second interlayer power
Value, calculates the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, and according to weights and the second layer in the layer of described cause calamity layer parameter
Between weights, calculate described the second comprehensive weights causing calamity layer parameter；
Disaster index computing module 80, for the second synthetic weights according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, described pregnant calamity layer parameter
Value, described the second comprehensive weights causing calamity layer parameter and described cause calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain flood Danger Indexes.
Potential index computing module 90, for weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter,
Calculate mountain torrents potential danger index.
Tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system provided by the present invention, can be according to pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter
With the actual acquisition situation of hazard-affected body parameter, be given and both can be used alone, there is the cascade that incidence relation can be used together again
Formula mountain flood risk analyses index, including the mountain torrents potential danger index only utilizing pregnant calamity layer parameter to calculate, using pregnant calamity layer
Parameter and the mountain flood Danger Indexes causing the calculating of calamity layer parameter, and according to pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected body ginseng
The mountain torrents Risk index that number calculates, can meet under data acquisition condition, the mountain torrents risk analyses application of different demands.
Embodiment described above only have expressed the several embodiments of the present invention, and its description is more concrete and detailed, but simultaneously
Therefore the restriction to the scope of the claims of the present invention can not be interpreted as.It should be pointed out that for those of ordinary skill in the art
For, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, some deformation can also be made and improve, these broadly fall into the guarantor of the present invention
Shield scope.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be defined by claims.
Claims (18)
1. a kind of tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method is it is characterised in that methods described includes：
Obtain pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default first algorithm, calculate described respectively
Weights in the layer of pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default second algorithm, obtain described pregnant calamity
First interlayer weights of layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause weights and the first interlayer weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter, count respectively
Calculate the first comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hold
The comprehensive weights of the first of calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
2. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 is it is characterised in that methods described is also wrapped
Include：
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter, by default second algorithm, obtain the second of described pregnant calamity layer parameter
Interlayer weights and the second interlayer weights of described cause calamity layer parameter；
Weights and the second interlayer weights in layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate the second synthetic weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter
Value, and according to weights and the second interlayer weights in the layer of described cause calamity layer parameter, calculate described cause calamity layer parameter second is comprehensive
Close weights；
According to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, described cause calamity layer parameter and described cause calamity
The comprehensive weights of the second of layer parameter, calculate mountain flood Danger Indexes.
3. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 is it is characterised in that methods described is also wrapped
Include：
Weights in layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents potential danger index.
4. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 it is characterised in that：
Described pregnant calamity layer parameter includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and land use pattern.
5. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 it is characterised in that：
Described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter.
6. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 it is characterised in that：
Described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter.
7. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 6 it is characterised in that：
Described flood control parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
8. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 it is characterised in that：
Described default first algorithm includes entropy assessment.
9. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis method according to claim 1 it is characterised in that：
Described default second algorithm includes analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
10. a kind of tandem type mountain flood risk analysis system is it is characterised in that include：
Parameter acquisition module, for obtaining pregnant calamity layer parameter, causing calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
Weight computing module in layer, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by default
First algorithm, calculates described pregnant calamity layer parameter respectively, causes weights in calamity layer parameter and the layer of hazard-affected layer parameter；
First interlayer weight computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, by pre-
If the second algorithm, obtain described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause the first interlayer weights of calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter；
First comprehensive weights computing module, in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter
Weights and the first interlayer weights, calculate the first synthetic weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter respectively
Value；
Risk indicator computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter and described pregnant calamity
First comprehensive weights of layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter and hazard-affected layer parameter, calculate mountain torrents Risk index.
11. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 are it is characterised in that also include：
Second interlayer weight computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, cause calamity layer parameter, calculating by default second
Method, obtains the second interlayer weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter and the second interlayer weights of described cause calamity layer parameter；
Second comprehensive weights computing module, for weights and the second interlayer weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculates
The comprehensive weights of the second of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, and according to weights and the second interlayer weights in the layer of described cause calamity layer parameter,
Calculate described the second comprehensive weights causing calamity layer parameter；
Disaster index computing module, for according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter, the second comprehensive weights of described pregnant calamity layer parameter, described
Cause the second comprehensive weights of calamity layer parameter and described cause calamity layer parameter, calculate mountain flood Danger Indexes.
12. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 are it is characterised in that also include：
Potential index computing module, for weights in the layer according to described pregnant calamity layer parameter and described pregnant calamity layer parameter, calculates mountain
Big vast potential danger index.
13. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 it is characterised in that：
Described pregnant calamity layer parameter includes soil types, vegetation coverage, the gradient and land use pattern.
14. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 it is characterised in that：
Described cause calamity layer parameter includes precipitation parameter, raininess parameter and history precipitation parameter.
15. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 it is characterised in that：
Described hazard-affected layer parameter includes GDP parameter, population density parameter and flood control parameter.
16. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 15 it is characterised in that：
Described flood control parameter includes flood control works parameter and flood control capital quantity.
17. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 it is characterised in that：
Described default first algorithm includes entropy assessment.
18. tandem type mountain flood risk analysis systems according to claim 10 it is characterised in that：
Described default second algorithm includes analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
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