CN103440420A - Agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk assessment method - Google Patents

Agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk assessment method Download PDF

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CN103440420A
CN103440420A CN2013103906441A CN201310390644A CN103440420A CN 103440420 A CN103440420 A CN 103440420A CN 2013103906441 A CN2013103906441 A CN 2013103906441A CN 201310390644 A CN201310390644 A CN 201310390644A CN 103440420 A CN103440420 A CN 103440420A
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agricultural drought
disaster
drought disaster
factor risk
risk assessment
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杨思全
范一大
和海霞
黄河
王平
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MINISTRY OF CIVIL AFFAIRS NATIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION CENTER
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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of application of satellite remote sensing to disaster reduction, and in particular relates to an agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk assessment method based on real-time daily precipitation and environmental disaster-reduction satellite data. The agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk assessment method is based on real-time daily precipitation and environmental disaster-reduction satellite, and mainly comprises the steps of 1: calculating a precipitation deficit rate according to the real-time daily precipitation; 2: according to environmental disaster-reduction satellite multi-spectral data, calculating a ground water deficit rate; 3: calculating a normalized differential vegetation index according to the environmental disaster-reduction satellite multi-spectral data; 4: according to the precipitation deficit rate, the ground water deficit rate and the normalized differential vegetation index, constructing an agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk index; and 5: according to the agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk index, classifying and grading an agricultural drought disaster-inducing factor risk.

Description

Agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor risk assessment method
Technical field
The present invention relates to satellite remote sensing mitigation applied technical field, be specifically related to a kind of agricultural drought disaster based on real-time daily precipitation amount and environment mitigation satellite data and cause calamity factor risk assessment method.
Background technology
China's drought takes place frequently, and the scope of suffering from drought is wide, the duration is long, is to cause one of the most serious disaster of agricultural losses.Agricultural drought disaster is to cause the calamity factor, pregnant calamity environment, the interactional product of hazard-affected body.All the time, the pregnant calamity environmental stability of agricultural drought disaster and the research of hazard-affected body fragility are paid attention to widely, and agricultural drought disaster is caused to these Fundamentals of bringing out agricultural drought disaster of the calamity factor, pay attention to not.
In prior art, the research that causes calamity factor danger for agricultural drought disaster adopts simple meteorological index to weigh its intensity and spatial dimension usually, often have that the physics interrogatory is true, the indicative deficiency such as not strong of agricultural drought disaster, thereby cause the agricultural drought disaster risk assessment and the problem such as the loss Evaluation accuracy is low.
In sum, a kind of limitation that can effectively avoid existing agricultural drought disaster to cause calamity factor risk assessment method, improve agricultural drought disaster that agricultural drought disaster causes the precision of calamity factor risk assessment, risk assessment, loss assessment and cause calamity factor risk assessment method and urgently provide.
Summary of the invention
(1) technical matters that will solve
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of limitation that agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor risk assessment method of can effectively avoiding having now, the agricultural drought disaster that the raising agricultural drought disaster causes the precision of calamity factor risk assessment, risk assessment, loss assessment causes calamity factor risk assessment method.
(2) technical scheme
Technical solution of the present invention is as follows:
A kind of agricultural drought disaster based on real-time daily precipitation amount and environment mitigation satellite causes calamity factor risk assessment method, comprising:
Step 1: according to real-time daily precipitation amount, calculate the precipitation rate that wanes;
Step 2: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate the day water rate that wanes;
Step 3: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate normalized differential vegetation index;
Step 4: according to described precipitation wane rate and the normalized differential vegetation index of rate, the day water that wane, build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index;
Step 5: cause calamity factor risk index according to described agricultural drought disaster agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor danger.
Preferably, before described step 1, also comprise:
Step 0: set up the agricultural drought disaster driving force level of factor storehouse that comprises real-time daily precipitation amount, surface temperature, coverage of water and normalized differential vegetation index;
Preferably, in described step 1, according to formula
Figure BDA0000375329950000021
calculate the precipitation rate L that wanes j;
Wherein,
Figure BDA0000375329950000022
for pushing away the composite value of real-time daily precipitation amount in 90 days before the date of the valuation,
Figure BDA0000375329950000023
average for real-time daily precipitation amount composite value in 90 days same periods for many years.
Preferably, described step 2 comprises:
Step 21: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate the coverage of water value in remote sensing image;
Step 22: according to described coverage of water value, calculate the day water rate that wanes.
Preferably, described step 21 comprises:
According to formula
Figure BDA0000375329950000024
calculate normalization water body index NDWI; Wherein, the reflectivity that Green is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 2nd wave band, the reflectivity that NIR is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 4th wave band;
If described normalization water body index is greater than preset value, from remote sensing image, obtain the water body recognition image, by water body recognition image vector quantization and calculate coverage of water.
Preferably, in described step 22, according to formula
Figure BDA0000375329950000031
calculate the day water rate W that wanes i;
Wherein, WA ifor the coverage of water value in remote sensing image in the assessment time, WA is the coverage of water value in the remote sensing image same period in former years.
Preferably, in described step 3, according to formula
Figure BDA0000375329950000032
calculate normalized differential vegetation index NDVI;
Wherein, the reflectivity that NIR is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 4th wave band, the reflectivity that Red is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 3rd wave band.
Preferably, step 4: according to formula DroughtH = 1 W i · μ 2 + NDVI · μ 3 + L j · μ 1 Build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index DroughtH;
Wherein, μ 1for the wane weight of rate of precipitation, μ 2for the weight of normalized differential vegetation index, μ 3for the wane weight of rate of precipitation.
Preferably, described weight mu 1, μ 2and μ 3by expert's scoring, determine.
Preferably, according to following formula, agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor danger in described step 5:
Figure BDA0000375329950000034
Wherein, a, b, c is the deciding grade and level threshold value of grading.
(3) beneficial effect
The agricultural drought disaster that the embodiment of the present invention provides causes calamity factor risk assessment method based on real-time daily precipitation amount data and environment mitigation satellite data, and the integrated use precipitation rate that wanes, the day water rate that wanes, the parameters such as normalized differential vegetation index, build agricultural drought disaster and caused calamity factor risk index, and agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor risk index, thereby realize agricultural drought disaster is caused the Efficient Evaluation of calamity factor danger, effectively avoid existing agricultural drought disaster to cause the limitation of calamity factor risk assessment method, improve agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk assessment, risk assessment, the agricultural drought disaster of the precision of loss assessment causes calamity factor risk assessment method, filled up the blank of this domain-specific research work, solved domestic satellite remote sensing date and be coupling in real-time daily precipitation amount the problem that the agricultural drought disaster monitoring causes the deficiency of the dangerous aspect of the calamity factor.Simultaneously, the coupling adopted in the present invention real-time daily precipitation amount data and environment mitigation satellite data have also been expanded the range of application of domestic satellite remote sensing date to a certain extent.
The accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet that in the embodiment of the present invention, agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor risk assessment method.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described further.Following examples are only for the present invention is described, but are not used for limiting the scope of the invention.
Basically, causing the main cause of agricultural arid is that the crops and the agricultural resource that cause due to water deficient are disaster-stricken.Therefore, the work of studying the danger that causes the calamity factor should be carried out from aspects such as Precipitation Process, ground water system, crop growths.The present invention is based on real-time daily precipitation amount data and environment mitigation satellite data, and integrated use precipitation rate, the day water parameters such as rate, normalized differential vegetation index that wane that wane, having built agricultural drought disaster and caused calamity factor risk index, is a kind of effective ways that the assessment agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor danger.Below in conjunction with Fig. 1, agricultural drought disaster provided by the invention being caused to calamity factor risk assessment method is described in detail.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of agricultural drought disaster based on real-time daily precipitation amount and environment mitigation satellite provided in the present embodiment causes calamity factor risk assessment method, mainly comprises step:
Step 1: calculate the precipitation rate that wanes according to real-time daily precipitation amount, thereby set up meteorological arid parameter, the uncertainty of quantitative test Precipitation Process;
Step 2: calculate the day water rate that wanes according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, utilize environment mitigation satellite multispectral data to carry out water body identification, calculate coverage of water also with long-term coverage of water relatively, thereby estimate the danger of water deficit;
Step 3: calculate normalized differential vegetation index according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, carry out the dangerous identification of crop feature;
Step 4: according to described precipitation wane rate and the normalized differential vegetation index of rate, the day water that wane, build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index;
Step 5: cause calamity factor risk index according to described agricultural drought disaster agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor danger, carry out risk assessment.
Further, for convenient, calculate, before described step 1, can also comprise step:
Step 0: set up the agricultural drought disaster driving force level of factor storehouse that comprises real-time daily precipitation amount, surface temperature, coverage of water and normalized differential vegetation index.
Below in conjunction with practical application, and to take in February, 2012 Yunnan drought be example, the agricultural drought disaster that the present embodiment provided caused to calamity factor risk assessment method and described in detail.
Step 0: set up agricultural drought disaster driving force level of factor storehouse:
Consider the agricultural arid mechanism of causing disaster, foundation comprises the index storehouse of the agricultural drought disaster driving force factors such as real-time daily precipitation amount, surface temperature, coverage of water and normalized differential vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, be abbreviated as NDVI).
About obtaining of data in agricultural drought disaster driving force level of factor storehouse: daily precipitation amount data can be from China Meteorological Sharing Services for Scientific Data net (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn) in real time in the whole nation, this data set (comprises national climatic station by extract in real time 2419 stations, the whole nation from comprehensive storehouse, meteorological observation first order station of country, secondary station) the Daily rainfall amount, the best interpolation method of employing based on " Climatic field ", generate in real time the grid product of regional Daily rainfall amount, product space resolution is 0.25 ° * 0.25 °.The owner unit that environment mitigation satellite multispectral data can be environment mitigation satellite from Ministry of Civil Affairs's country's mitigation center ，Gai unit, these data are free.
Pre-service about the data obtained: can be in ArcGIS(GIS development platform) in, utilize Batch Define Coordinate System(to define in batches coordinate system) function is to the unified WGS1984(World of interpolation of the whole nation real-time daily precipitation amount data Geodetic System1984, is to use for GPS the coordinate system of setting up) projection; At ENVI(The Environment for Visualizing Images, a kind of Remote Sensing Image Processing) in, utilize the layer stacking(figure layer stacking) to carry out wave band synthetic for function, then utilizes mosaicking(to inlay) function inlayed image.
Step 1: the uncertainty of quantitative test Precipitation Process:
Utilize real-time daily precipitation amount data, according to following formula, calculate the j precipitation rate L that wanes jthereby, the uncertainty of quantitative test precipitation:
L j = Psum j 90 - Psum 90 ‾ Psum 90 ‾
Wherein,
Figure BDA0000375329950000062
for pushing away the composite value of real-time daily precipitation amount in 90 days before the date of the valuation,
Figure BDA0000375329950000063
average for real-time daily precipitation amount composite value in 90 days same periods for many years;
Figure BDA0000375329950000064
the sign formula is:
Psum j 90 = Σ i = 1 90 p i , j
Psum 90 ‾ = Σ j = 1 n Psum j 90 n
Wherein j is the time that causes calamity factor risk assessment date place; p i,jfor i days real-time daily precipitation values of j.N is year number of degrees, j=1, and 2 ..., n.
In practical operation, this step comprises:
(1), utilize cell statistics(pixels statistics in ArcGIS) function calculating in each 90 days years in real time daily precipitation amount year composite value;
(2), utilize cell statistics(pixels statistics in ArcGIS) function calculating in each 90 days years in real time daily precipitation amount year composite value average;
(3), utilize raster calculator(grid counter in ArcGIS) the function calculating precipitation rate that wanes.
Step 2: the danger of estimating water deficit:
According to multispectral (the Charge-coupled Device of environment mitigation satellite, CCD) data are calculated the day water rate that wanes, utilize environment mitigation satellite multispectral data to carry out water body identification, calculate coverage of water and compare with long-term coverage of water, thus the danger of evaluation water deficit;
In the present embodiment, described step 2 comprises:
Step 21: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate the coverage of water value in remote sensing image; Utilize environment mitigation satellite multispectral data to calculate normalization water body index (Normal Differential Water Index, be abbreviated as NDWI), and consider the interference atural objects such as land, city mask data eliminating city, thereby extract the coverage of water in remote sensing image.
Normalization water body index NDWI computing formula is:
NDWI = Green - NIR Dreen + NIR
Wherein, the reflectivity that Green is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 2nd wave band, the reflectivity that NIR is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 4th wave band;
If described normalization water body index is greater than preset value, from remote sensing image, obtain the water body recognition image, by water body recognition image vector quantization and calculate coverage of water.
Step 22: according to described coverage of water value, calculate the day water rate W that wanes i; Specific formula for calculation is:
W i = WA i WA
Wherein, WA ifor the coverage of water value in remote sensing image in the assessment time, WA is the coverage of water value in the remote sensing image same period in former years.
In practical operation, this step comprises:
At first utilize the computing of ENVI software band math(wave band) function calculating normalization water body index, according to the normalization water body index calculated, threshold value is set and carries out the extraction of water body recognition image, to extract result vector afterwards, and carry out the calculating of coverage of water in ArcGIS software, obtaining Dianchi Lake waters area in 2012 is 291.16km 2, then calculate coverage of water in 2012 and former years area ratio, obtaining the day water rate of waning is 0.97.
Step 3: the dangerous identification of crop feature:
Calculate normalized differential vegetation index NDVI according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, carry out the dangerous identification of crop feature; Specific formula for calculation is as follows:
NDVI = NIR - Red NIR + Red
Wherein, the reflectivity that NIR is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 4th wave band, the reflectivity that Red is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 3rd wave band.
In practical operation, this step utilizes ENVI software band math function to complete.
Step 4: build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index:
Build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index DroughtH according to described precipitation wane rate and the normalized differential vegetation index of rate, the day water that wane; Specific formula for calculation is as follows:
DroughtH = 1 W i · μ 2 + NDVI · μ 3 + L j · μ 1
Wherein, L jfor the precipitation rate that wanes, NDVI is normalized differential vegetation index, W ifor the day water rate that wanes, μ 1for the wane weight of rate of precipitation, μ 2for the weight of normalized differential vegetation index, μ 3for the wane weight of rate of precipitation; Preferably, in the present embodiment, described weight mu 1, μ 2and μ 3by expert's scoring, determine.
For example, utilize expert's scoring, determine the precipitation rate L that wanes jweight is 0.5, the day water rate W that wanes iweight is 0.25, and normalized differential vegetation index NDVI weight is 0.25.In ENVI software, utilize the wave band computing, calculate agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index.
Step 5: agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor risk assessment:
Cause calamity factor risk index according to described agricultural drought disaster agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor danger, carry out risk assessment; In the present embodiment, for the ease of the deciding grade and level that grades, image is carried out to 2% linear stretch, and set up piecewise function, to causing calamity factor danger, carry out qualitative evaluation, specific formula for calculation is as follows:
Figure BDA0000375329950000082
Wherein, DroughtH is that agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor risk index, a, and b, c is the deciding grade and level threshold value of grading; For example, the danger classes for dividing according to the deciding grade and level threshold value of grading shown in table 1.
Table 1 agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor Hazard rank evaluation form
DroughtH(passes judgment on coefficient) Hazard rank
0-50 High
50-100 In
100-150 Low
150-255 Nothing
And, in order to estimate the order of accuarcy of above-mentioned assessment models, the inventor also carries out modelling verification calculating, and the Kunming drought the condition of a disaster in February that assessment result and Yunnan Province Bureau of Civil Affairs report is contrasted.The result demonstration, it is substantially identical with Kunming, Yunnan Province arid situation that agricultural drought disaster causes the evaluation of calamity factor Hazard rank, and order of accuarcy can reach more than 80%, thereby has verified accuracy and the feasibility of the method.The present invention also can realize the business operation, carries out agricultural drought disaster risk assessment and loss assessment, therefore drought early warning and drought relief decision support is had to important effect.
In sum, the agricultural drought disaster provided in the present embodiment causes calamity factor risk assessment method and has following advantage:
1, the present invention is directed to agricultural drought disaster and cause the calamity factor this brings out the Fundamentals of agricultural drought disaster, is that a kind of agricultural drought disaster causes calamity factor risk assessment method, has filled up the blank of this domain-specific research work.
2, the invention solves domestic satellite remote sensing date and be coupling in real-time daily precipitation the problem that the agricultural drought disaster monitoring causes the dangerous aspect of calamity factor deficiency, expanded to a certain extent the range of application of domestic satellite remote sensing date.
3, the present invention's data used have the obvious advantages such as be easy to obtain, data are reliable.Specifically, daily precipitation amount data are easy to obtain in real time; Environment mitigation satellite data has high-resolution characteristics, can be round-the-clock, the dynamic monitoring drought the condition of a disaster of round-the-clock, wide covering.These data can guarantee high timeliness, high-qualityly carry out assessment.
4, the present invention area that can obtain at short notice suffering from drought causes calamity factor risk assessment, for the Disaster relief countermeasures such as rational drought rescue method, rational allocation disaster relief supplies provide significant data reference and support.
5, the present invention possesses versatility, can be environment mitigation satellite and provides reliable support in the business operation aspect the drought monitoring.
6, the present invention possesses perspectively, to utilizing other satellite remote sensing dates to carry out the drought monitoring, provides thinking.
Above embodiment is only for illustrating the present invention; and be not limitation of the present invention; the those of ordinary skill in relevant technologies field; without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention; can also make a variety of changes and modification, therefore all technical schemes that are equal to also belong to protection category of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. the agricultural drought disaster based on real-time daily precipitation amount and environment mitigation satellite causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, comprising:
Step 1: according to real-time daily precipitation amount, calculate the precipitation rate that wanes;
Step 2: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate the day water rate that wanes;
Step 3: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate normalized differential vegetation index;
Step 4: according to described precipitation wane rate and the normalized differential vegetation index of rate, the day water that wane, build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index;
Step 5: cause calamity factor risk index according to described agricultural drought disaster agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor danger.
2. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 1 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, before described step 1, also comprises:
Step 0: set up the agricultural drought disaster driving force level of factor storehouse that comprises real-time daily precipitation amount, surface temperature, coverage of water and normalized differential vegetation index.
3. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 1 and 2 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, in described step 1, according to formula
Figure FDA0000375329940000011
calculate the precipitation rate L that wanes j;
Wherein,
Figure FDA0000375329940000012
for pushing away the composite value of real-time daily precipitation amount in 90 days before the date of the valuation,
Figure FDA0000375329940000013
average for real-time daily precipitation amount composite value in 90 days same periods for many years.
4. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 3 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, described step 2 comprises:
Step 21: according to environment mitigation satellite multispectral data, calculate the coverage of water value in remote sensing image;
Step 22: according to described coverage of water value, calculate the day water rate that wanes.
5. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 4 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, described step 21 comprises:
According to formula
Figure FDA0000375329940000021
calculate normalization water body index NDWI; Wherein, the reflectivity that Green is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 2nd wave band, the reflectivity that NIR is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 4th wave band;
If described normalization water body index is greater than preset value, from remote sensing image, obtain the water body recognition image, by water body recognition image vector quantization and calculate coverage of water.
6. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 5 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, in described step 22, according to formula
Figure FDA0000375329940000022
calculate the day water rate W that wanes i;
Wherein, WA ifor the coverage of water value in remote sensing image in the assessment time, WA is the coverage of water value in the remote sensing image same period in former years.
7. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 6 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that, in described step 3, according to formula
Figure FDA0000375329940000023
calculate normalized differential vegetation index NDVI;
Wherein, the reflectivity that NIR is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 4th wave band, the reflectivity that Red is environment mitigation satellite multispectral data the 3rd wave band.
8. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 7 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that step 4: according to formula
Figure FDA0000375329940000024
build agricultural drought disaster and cause calamity factor risk index DroughtH;
Wherein, μ 1for the wane weight of rate of precipitation, μ 2for the weight of normalized differential vegetation index, μ 3for the wane weight of rate of precipitation.
9. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 8 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that described weight mu 1, μ 2and μ 3by expert's scoring, determine.
10. agricultural drought disaster according to claim 8 or claim 9 causes calamity factor risk assessment method, it is characterized in that,
According to following formula, agricultural drought disaster is caused to the deciding grade and level that graded of calamity factor danger in described step 5:
Figure FDA0000375329940000031
Wherein, a, b, c is the deciding grade and level threshold value of grading.
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CN113409336B (en) * 2021-06-23 2022-03-01 生态环境部卫星环境应用中心 Method, device, medium and equipment for extracting area and frequency of river dry-out and flow-break
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