CN105862653A - Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistics model and applied to flood control benefit of reservoir - Google Patents
Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistics model and applied to flood control benefit of reservoir Download PDFInfo
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- CN105862653A CN105862653A CN201610220300.XA CN201610220300A CN105862653A CN 105862653 A CN105862653 A CN 105862653A CN 201610220300 A CN201610220300 A CN 201610220300A CN 105862653 A CN105862653 A CN 105862653A
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- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E02—HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING; FOUNDATIONS; SOIL SHIFTING
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Abstract
The invention relates to a dynamic calculation method based on a mathematical statistics model and applied to flood control benefit of a reservoir and belongs to the technical field of water conservancy economy. Quantization of the flood control benefit is always a problem difficult to solve. The dynamic calculation method comprises the following steps: step 1, the concept of the flood control benefit growth rate is introduced, and a conversion factor between the flood control benefit of a flood occurrence year and the flood control benefit of a base year is solved; step 2, a proper mathematical statistics model is selected according to data including the peak discharge, the volume and corresponding flood control benefit of each historical flood, correlation among the peak discharge, the volume and the flood control benefit is searched, and a mathematical expression is established; step 3, a flood control benefit dynamic calculation model based on mathematical statistics is established according to the mathematical expression established in the step 2 and the conversion factor solved in the step 1, the peak discharge and the volume of an occurring flood are put into the model, and the flood control benefit value of the reservoir during the flood is obtained through calculation. Calculation is simple and convenient, the precision of a calculation result is high, and the calculation result better aggress with an actual situation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of be applied to the method that existing reservoir inquires into Benefit of Flood Preventation, especially relate to a kind of based on mathematical statistics
The flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method of model, belongs to water conservancy economy technical field.
Background technology
The primary effect of reservoir is controlled flood exactly, but the quantization of Benefit of Flood Preventation is the most all an insoluble problem, its
Main cause be Benefit of Flood Preventation in addition to computable direct Disaster economy benefit, be also difficult to the indirect benefit quantified.Flood control
Benefit typically referred to flood control project with compared with flood control project, the flood loss that can reduce or remit and increasable land development profit
By value, represent with many annuals Benefit of Flood Preventation and extraodinary flood year benefit.Benefit of Flood Preventation is the important set of reservoir economic benefit
Become part, accurate quantification flood control by reservoir regulation benefit, for the correct feasibility evaluating reservoir construction and operation reasonability, all there is weight
To want meaning, can be found in: Mao Zhengyong. Guangzhou Liuxi River Valley flood control project benefit evaluates [D]. Guangzhou University, institute in 2008.
Disclosure.
The more commonly used having in existing Benefit of Flood Preventation computational methods: 1. flood loss frequency method, drafting reservoir is built and is front and back occurred
The empirical frequency curve of flood loss during different frequency flood, flood control by reservoir regulation benefit is the area that two curves are surrounded；2.
Historical summary matching type, according to historical flood data, chooses typical flood, by calculating the Benefit of Flood Preventation of estimation reservoir；3.
There is year method, actually occur in year at corresponding frequencies flood, calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation building reservoir；4. actual year-series analysis method,
Choose one period of flood damage data actual year serial, calculate respective flood loss before and after building reservoir year by year, then
Both calculating, the average of differences is as annual Benefit of Flood Preventation, as taken in the fresh in field. bavin River Reservoir Benefit of Flood Preventation Research on Calculation [J].
Value engineering, disclosure of that in 2010,05:98-99.；5. optimum equivalent substitution measure method, Benefit of Flood Preventation is satisfied for building
Expense needed for the most favourable bodyfixed frame that current flood control requires, such as Fang Guohua, Dai Shusheng. Economic Benefit Analysis of Hydrometric Station Network [J].
People the Yellow River, disclosure of that in 1995,01:10-13+61..
Current methods there is the problem that method 1 is a kind of Static Analysis Method, it is impossible to considers Factors Affecting Economic Development；Method 2
It is higher that Typical Year is chosen requirement by historical summary matching type, once chooses the improper situation being easily generated bigger error；Method 3
Generation year method flood frequency is not easy to determine with the relation of Disaster Area；In method 4 actual year-series analysis method, typical case's series is difficult to select
Take, data representative is required too high；A kind of Relative system error of result that the optimum equivalent substitution measure method of method 5 solves.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to overcome above-mentioned deficiency present in prior art, and a kind of simplicity that calculates is provided, result of calculation
Precision high, and result of calculation more conforms to the flood control by reservoir regulation benefit dynamic calculation side based on mathematical statistical model of practical situation
Method.
The present invention solves the problems referred to above and be the technical scheme is that this flood control by reservoir regulation benefit based on mathematical statistical model is dynamic
The feature of computational methods is: the step of described method is as follows:
Step 1: introduce this concept of Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase, tries to achieve flood and the Benefit of Flood Preventation in year and the conversion system of standard year occurs
Number, is shown in formula (1),
α=(1+f)t (1)
In formula: α: conversion coefficient；
F: Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase；
T: calculate the year number between year and standard year, when calculating year is more than standard year, just takes；Otherwise, take negative；
Step 2: according to the Benefit of Flood Preventation data of the crest discharge of flood, magnanimity and correspondence that history has occurred, choose
Suitably mathematical statistical model, finds the dependency relation between three, sets up mathematic(al) representation, see formula (2)；Wherein control flood
Benefit should be scaled to calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation value of standard year；
Bt=f (Qm,W) (2)
In formula: Bt: history Benefit of Flood Preventation value, unit: hundred million yuan；
Qm: flood crest discharge, unit: m3/s；
W: flood magnanimity, chooses magnanimity eigenvalue according to area flooding schedule, unit: hundred million m3；
Step 3: the conversion coefficient that the mathematic(al) representation set up according to step 2 and step 1 are tried to achieve builds based on mathematical statistics anti-
Flood benefit dynamic calculation model, is shown in formula (3),
Bt'=α × Bt=α × f (Qm,W) (3)
In formula: Bt': calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation value in year, unit: hundred million yuan；
Then crest discharge and the magnanimity of the flood of demand Benefit of Flood Preventation are substituted into formula (3), calculate the reservoir of this flood
Benefit of Flood Preventation value.
As preferably, the present invention uses dynamic analysing method, it is considered to this factor of Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase, introduce calculate year with
The conversion coefficient of Benefit of Flood Preventation between standard year so that result of calculation tallies with the actual situation.
As preferably, the present invention uses Static Analysis Method, in the case of flood control works determine, has considered decision flood
Two main characteristic parameters crest discharges of calamity loss and magnanimity, utilize mathematical statistical model to find what dependency relation was set up
Mathematic(al) representation, precision is higher.
As preferably, the present invention will dynamically combine with static analysis, builds Benefit of Flood Preventation dynamic calculation based on mathematical statistics
Model, calculate convenient, precision is higher, it is adaptable to built flood control by reservoir regulation benefit calculation.
As preferably, in step 1 of the present invention, Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase is according to the relevant meaning of China's flood control loss rate of increase
See, and determine according to the relevant regulations of local economic development level and national economic evaluation's specification.
As preferably, in step 2 of the present invention, standard year water intaking storehouse put into operation after First Year.
As preferably, in step 2 of the present invention, suitable mathematical statistical model is multivariate regression models.
The present invention compared with prior art, has the following advantages and effect: 1, by introducing this concept of conversion coefficient, will be anti-
Flood benefit combines with the level of economic development, and result of calculation more conforms to practical situation.2, according to the flood of the existing flood of history
Peak flow, magnanimity and the Benefit of Flood Preventation data of corresponding reservoir, use the mathematical expression between the three of mathematical statistical model foundation
Formula, calculating is easy, result precision is higher.3, the analysis method dynamically combined is used with static state, uniting based on mathematics of structure
Less demanding to data of Benefit of Flood Preventation dynamic calculation model of meter model, and it is more applicable for built flood control by reservoir regulation benefit meter
Calculate.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model in the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and by embodiment, and following example are to the present invention
Explain and the invention is not limited in following example.
Embodiment.
Seeing Fig. 1, in the present embodiment, the step of flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model is as follows:
Step 1: introduce this concept of Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase, solves according to formula (1) and calculates year and standard year Benefit of Flood Preventation
Conversion coefficient.
α=(1+f)t (1)
In formula: α: conversion coefficient；
F: Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase；
T: calculate the year number between year and standard year, is more than standard year when calculating year, just takes；Otherwise, take negative.
There is same destructiveness at different time in flood, due to consider national economic development level constantly promote, price not
The disconnected factor gone up, Benefit of Flood Preventation also should change over time and be varied from, therefore introduce Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase this without exception
Read.With reference to the relevant suggestion of China's flood control loss rate of increase, and comment according to the damsite level of economic development and national economy
The relevant regulations of valency specification determines, the Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase in the present embodiment is taken as 2%.Determine a certain place in a certain period
The concrete numerical value of Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase belongs to common knowledge to those skilled in the art.
Standard year is taken as the First Year after this reservoir puts into operation, is taken as 2000 in the present embodiment；Calculate year for calculating flood
In the place time, the present embodiment is taken as 2015.
Calculate according to formula 1: α=(1+0.02)15=1.346
Step 2: according to the Benefit of Flood Preventation data of the crest discharge of flood, magnanimity and correspondence that history has occurred, choose
Suitably mathematical statistical model, finds the dependency relation between three, sets up mathematic(al) representation, see formula (2)；Wherein control flood
Benefit should be scaled to calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation value of standard year；
Bt=f (Qm,W) (2)
In formula: Bt: history Benefit of Flood Preventation value, unit: hundred million yuan；
Qm: flood crest discharge, unit: m3/s；
W: flood magnanimity, chooses magnanimity eigenvalue according to area flooding schedule, unit: hundred million m3；
Table 1 is certain existing reservoir history generation flood data and corresponding Benefit of Flood Preventation table, specific as follows:
Table 1: certain existing reservoir history generation flood data and corresponding Benefit of Flood Preventation table
| Time | Crest discharge | Magnanimity on the five | Investigation year Benefit of Flood Preventation value | Conversion coefficient | Based on standard year Benefit of Flood Preventation value |
| 2012 | 2930 | 6.05 | 26.76 | 1.268 | 21.1 |
| 2010 | 2640 | 5.45 | 20.14 | 1.219 | 16.52 |
| 2005 | 2358 | 4.87 | 16.71 | 1.104 | 15.14 |
| 2006 | 2086 | 4.31 | 14.73 | 1.126 | 13.08 |
| 2013 | 1704 | 3.52 | 8.98 | 1.294 | 6.94 |
| 2009 | 1403 | 2.9 | 6.16 | 1.195 | 5.15 |
| 2007 | 1094 | 2.26 | 2.56 | 1.149 | 2.23 |
Note: standard year elects the First Year after this reservoir puts into operation as, this reservoir takes 2000.
As shown in the 2nd in table 1,3,4 row, it is known that the flood control effect of certain reservoir historical flood crest discharge, magnanimity and correspondence
Benefit, chooses multiple linear regression model, sets up the mathematic(al) representation between three.Choose multiple linear regression model for this
It it is common knowledge for skilled person.
The Benefit of Flood Preventation that first history respectively investigated year is scaled to standard year Benefit of Flood Preventation value, and conversion coefficient calculates according to step 1,
Being shown in Table shown in 1 the 5th row, Benefit of Flood Preventation value based on standard year is shown in Table shown in 1 the 6th row；Then multiple linear regression is chosen
Model, sets up the mathematic(al) representation (multiple correlation coefficient between the Benefit of Flood Preventation three of the crest discharge of flood, magnanimity and correspondence
R=0.98), formula (4) is seen.
Bt=-0.8548Qm+419.0593W-10.3564 (4)
Step 3: the conversion coefficient that the mathematic(al) representation (4) set up according to step 2 and step 1 are tried to achieve builds unites based on mathematics
The Benefit of Flood Preventation dynamic calculation model of meter, is shown in formula (3),
Bt'=α × Bt=α (-0.8548Qm+419.0593W-10.3564) (3)
In formula: Bt': calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation value in year, unit: hundred million yuan.
Then will calculate the crest discharge of flood, magnanimity substitution modular form (3) that occur in year, calculate the water of this flood
Storehouse Benefit of Flood Preventation value.Calculating crest discharge in the present embodiment is 1500m3/ s, magnanimity is 3.10 hundred million m3, substitution obtains
Bt'=1.346 × (-0.8548Qm+ 419.0593W-10.3564)=-1.1506Qm+564.0538W
-13.9398=-1.1506 × 1500+564.0538 × 3.10-13.9398=8.67 (hundred million yuan)
The present invention is different from traditional method, uses the method dynamically combined with static state, by introducing mathematical statistical model and changing
Calculate coefficient, build Benefit of Flood Preventation dynamic calculation model based on mathematical statistics, inquire into the Benefit of Flood Preventation of existing reservoir.The present invention
Benefit of Flood Preventation in conjunction with flood crest discharge, magnanimity and the correspondence in history investigation year, it is considered to the impact of the level of economic development,
Proposing one and calculate simplicity, result precision is higher, and result of calculation more conforms to flood control based on the mathematical statistical model effect of reality
Benefit Dynamic calculation method.
Furthermore, it is necessary to explanation, the specific embodiment described in this specification, the shape of its parts and components, it is named
Titles etc. can be different, and the above content described in this specification is only to present configuration example explanation.All depend on
The equivalence change done according to structure, feature and the principle described in inventional idea of the present invention or simple change, be all included in this
In the protection domain of bright patent.Described specific embodiment can be done various by those skilled in the art
The amendment of various kinds or supplement or use similar mode to substitute, without departing from the structure of the present invention or surmount present claims
Scope defined in book, all should belong to protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model, it is characterised in that: the step of described method
Rapid as follows:
Step 1: introduce this concept of Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase, tries to achieve flood and the Benefit of Flood Preventation in year and the conversion system of standard year occurs
Number, is shown in formula (1),
α=(1+f)t (1)
In formula: α: conversion coefficient；
F: Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase；
T: calculate the year number between year and standard year, when calculating year is more than standard year, just takes；Otherwise, take negative；
Step 2: according to the Benefit of Flood Preventation data of the crest discharge of flood, magnanimity and correspondence that history has occurred, choose
Suitably mathematical statistical model, finds the dependency relation between three, sets up mathematic(al) representation, see formula (2)；Wherein control flood
Benefit should be scaled to calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation value of standard year；
Bt=f (Qm,W) (2)
In formula: Bt: history Benefit of Flood Preventation value, unit: hundred million yuan；
Qm: flood crest discharge, unit: m3/s；
W: flood magnanimity, chooses magnanimity eigenvalue according to area flooding schedule, unit: hundred million m3；
Step 3: the conversion coefficient that the mathematic(al) representation set up according to step 2 and step 1 are tried to achieve builds based on mathematical statistics anti-
Flood benefit dynamic calculation model, is shown in formula (3),
Bt'=α × Bt=α × f (Qm,W) (3)
In formula: Bt': calculate the Benefit of Flood Preventation value in year, unit: hundred million yuan；
Then crest discharge and the magnanimity of the flood of demand Benefit of Flood Preventation are substituted into formula (3), calculate the reservoir of this flood
Benefit of Flood Preventation value.
Flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In: use dynamic analysing method, it is considered to this factor of Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase, introduce and calculate flood control effect between year and standard year
The conversion coefficient of benefit so that result of calculation tallies with the actual situation.
Flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In: use Static Analysis Method, in the case of flood control works determine, considered and determined two of flood loss mainly
Characteristic parameter crest discharge and magnanimity, utilize mathematical statistical model to find the mathematic(al) representation that dependency relation is set up, precision
Higher.
Flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In: dynamically will combine with static analysis, build Benefit of Flood Preventation dynamic calculation model based on mathematical statistics, calculate convenient,
Precision is higher, it is adaptable to built flood control by reservoir regulation benefit calculation.
Flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In: in described step 1, Benefit of Flood Preventation rate of increase loses the relevant suggestion of rate of increase according to China's flood control, and according to local warp
The relevant regulations of Ji level of development and national economic evaluation's specification determines.
Flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In: in described step 2, standard year water intaking storehouse put into operation after First Year.
Flood control by reservoir regulation benefit Dynamic calculation method based on mathematical statistical model the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In: in described step 2, suitable mathematical statistical model is multivariate regression models.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107016185A (en) * | 2017-03-31 | 2017-08-04 | 中国地质科学院探矿工艺研究所 | Calculation method for prediction of peak flow of collapse flood of tillite lake |
Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU2754784A (en) * | 1983-05-02 | 1984-11-08 | Pester, B.S. | Irrigation gate |
| CN102296562A (en) * | 2010-06-25 | 2011-12-28 | 华东电网有限公司 | Step reservoir joint flood scheduling optimization method coupling flood protection with power generation |
-
2016
- 2016-04-08 CN CN201610220300.XA patent/CN105862653B/en active Active
Patent Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AU2754784A (en) * | 1983-05-02 | 1984-11-08 | Pester, B.S. | Irrigation gate |
| CN102296562A (en) * | 2010-06-25 | 2011-12-28 | 华东电网有限公司 | Step reservoir joint flood scheduling optimization method coupling flood protection with power generation |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 方国华等: ""防洪效益计算方法述评"", 《水利水电科技进展》 * |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107016185A (en) * | 2017-03-31 | 2017-08-04 | 中国地质科学院探矿工艺研究所 | Calculation method for prediction of peak flow of collapse flood of tillite lake |
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Effective date of registration: 20170316 Address after: Qianxi County, Guizhou province 551501 five in Bijie township of Hongjiadu power plant Applicant after: Guizhou Wujiang Hydropower Development Co. Ltd. of Hongjiadu power plant Applicant after: China Huadian Electric Research Institute Address before: Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, 310030 Xihu District science and Technology Park of West Lake Park Road, No. 10 Applicant before: China Huadian Electric Research Institute |
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