CN104504470B - A kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling - Google Patents
A kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling Download PDFInfo
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- CN104504470B CN104504470B CN201410801067.5A CN201410801067A CN104504470B CN 104504470 B CN104504470 B CN 104504470B CN 201410801067 A CN201410801067 A CN 201410801067A CN 104504470 B CN104504470 B CN 104504470B
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling, and this method includes：Build history project of transmitting and converting electricity operation time series database；The duration of statistical history project of transmitting and converting electricity key link；Filter out the similar engineering collection for treating operation engineering；Using probability sampling to similar engineering collection multiple sampling；Single-candidate processing is carried out to data from the sample survey；Remove the optimal most bad engineering in sampling set；Remove optimal most bad sampling set；It is expected that treat the operation sequential of operation engineering.The present invention compared with prior art, solves the problems, such as that power system operating mode caused by being delayed in power system due to project of transmitting and converting electricity is arranged work repetition modeling and repeatedly analysis, effectively reduces the workload of operation of power networks researcher.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power network technique field, specifically a kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization based on probability sampling
Method for predicting.
Background technology
Project of transmitting and converting electricity is to build the indispensable important step of electric power networks.To meet economy development requirement, electric power is built
It is annual proposed, yet to be built, more and more in the project under construction built and gone into operation if being always ahead of local economic development speed, in order to true
Protect each Transmission Projects to go into operation as scheduled, State Grid Corporation of China has formulated detailed management method and taken strong
Measure, but in actual implementation process, due to communication and coordination are inadequate, construction environment is complicated, administrative mechanism imperfection, early-stage preparations
The various internal and external factors such as deficiency are present, and the comparison that Transmission Projects are often delayed is more.
Modern society's life is high to the degree of dependence of electric power, and power demand increases year by year, once power outage, which occurs, to be given
People's each side life make troubles, and caused by social influence it is big.To ensure power network safety operation and reliable power supply, pin
Extension to Transmission Projects each time is gone into operation, and operation of power networks will rearrange power system operating mode with administrative department,
To solve the problems, such as dispatching of power netwoks supply and demand.Project of transmitting and converting electricity frequently delays to force power system operating mode frequently to change, and each power network
Method of operation adjustment work is often relatively more urgent, allows power system operating mode analysis work can't bear the heavy load.Therefore, it is a set of to need structure badly
The estimated system of the project of transmitting and converting electricity operation sequential of science, optimizes the links in the project implementation, in order to be filled from multiple angles
Point consider power transmission and transforming equipment production time nargin, customized for each Transmission Projects duration and reference frame is provided, allow electricity
Network operation is studied and method of operation arrangement has rule to follow, and more set method of operation peaces are once constructed for each project of transmitting and converting electricity
Row's scheme, extension is avoided to cause power network to repeat modeling and repeatedly analysis.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling,
With solve in power system due to project of transmitting and converting electricity delay caused by power system operating mode arrange work repetition modeling and repeatedly point
The defects of analysis.
The technical scheme is that：
A kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling, this method comprise the following steps：
（1）Build history project of transmitting and converting electricity operation time series database；
（2）According to engineering construction time-scale and production time, each history electricity transmitting and converting construction stage each ring is counted
The duration of section, the power transmission engineering construction period be divided into basis, group tower, three links of stringing, the power transformation engineering construction period be divided into civil engineering,
Three installation, debugging links；
（3）Based on the essential information for treating operation engineering, including engineering type, voltage class, construction scale, administrative division,
The similar engineering collection for treating operation engineering is filtered out from database；
（4）Multiple sampling is carried out to similar engineering collection using probability sampling, multiple sampling set is obtained, extracts each
The duration of each link of each history engineering construction period in sampling set；
（5）Based on the construction scale for treating operation engineering, respectively to each history engineering construction period in each sampling set
The duration of each link carries out single-candidate processing；
（6）By in the sampling set belonging to history engineering from its corresponding to each link single-candidate duration maximum and minimum value
Filter out, then for the remaining history engineering in the sampling set, obtain the weighted average of each link single-candidate duration respectively,
Sampling results as the sampling set；
（7）Total lever factor according to each sampling results is distributed, by sampling results corresponding to total lever factor maximum and minimum value
Filter out, then for remaining sampling results, obtain the weighted average of each link duration respectively, as treating operation engineering construction
The predicted value of each link duration in stage, with reference to the on-stream time for treating operation engineering, that is, obtain treating the operation sequential of operation engineering.
The present invention compared with prior art, solves operation of power networks caused by delaying in power system due to project of transmitting and converting electricity
Mode is arranged work repetition modeling and multiple the problem of analyzing, and effectively reduces the workload of operation of power networks researcher.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings the present invention is further illustrated with specific embodiment.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling, including following step
Suddenly：
S1, structure history project of transmitting and converting electricity operation time series database：
The operation timing information of last decade power transmission engineering and power transformation engineering is extracted from filed electronic document, mainly
Including engineering type, voltage class, construction scale, project's earlier stage time-scale, engineering time-scale early stage, engineering construction time-scale,
Production time etc..
S2, statistical history project of transmitting and converting electricity key link duration：
Project of transmitting and converting electricity progress includes project's earlier stage, engineering early stage, engineering construction three phases, and wherein project of transmitting and converting electricity is thrown
Production sequential is estimated to be mainly expected to Construction Phase.Construction Phase represents project and gone into operation, its operation flow
Duration is counted respectively by transmission of electricity, power transformation, and the power transmission engineering construction period is divided into three basis, group tower, stringing links, and power transformation engineering is built
If the stage is then divided into three civil engineering, installation, debugging links.The duration of each link is by next link time started and this link
Time started difference is tried to achieve, and the duration of last link is tried to achieve by production time and this link time started difference.Before project
Phase and engineering are project of transmitting and converting electricity design and early-stage preparations stage early stages, main to complete feasibility study evaluation, system of project approval, construction bid
Deng work, the non-key analyze data in operation sequential expectancy analysis, not count.
S3, the similar engineering collection for treating operation engineering is filtered out, and similar engineering collection is carried out repeatedly using probability sampling
Sampling：
According to the design for treating operation engineering, pass through project of transmitting and converting electricity type（Transmission of electricity/power transformation）, voltage class, construction
The information such as scale, administrative division filter out the similar engineering collection for treating operation engineering from database, wherein, using construction scale as bar
Part is screened, power transmission engineering Primary Reference line length and bar number, power transformation engineering Primary Reference power transformation capacity and transformer platform
Number；Using administrative division as screening conditions, history engineering similar in project of transmitting and converting electricity Primary Reference territorial scope.
After similar engineering collection screens, multiple sampling samples sizes are set, multiple sampling is carried out to similar engineering collection,
Multiple sampling set are obtained, extract the duration of each link of each history engineering construction period in each sampling set.
S4, treat that the operation timing optimization of operation engineering is estimated：
Based on the construction scale for treating operation engineering, to each link of each history engineering construction period in each sampling set
Duration carry out single-candidate processing, reduce or be extended to and treat operation project scale, exemplified by treating operation power transmission engineering, if its build line
Road total length is LTreat, the construction total line length of some history power transmission engineering is Li in sampling setSampling, then single-candidate processing ratio
For LTreat/LiSampling；If the duration of the history power transmission engineering construction period basic link is TiBasis, group tower link duration be TiGroup tower、
The duration of stringing link is TiStringing, then the duration of each link is respectively after single-candidate processing：（LTreat/LiSampling）*TiBasis、（LTreat/LiSampling）*
TiGroup tower、（LTreat/LiSampling）*TiStringing.For treating operation power transformation engineering, carry out similar single-candidate according to main transformer number of units and handle.
Each sampling set after single-candidate processing is filtered：First, all history engineerings in gathering for sampling, point
The other single-candidate duration to each link carries out lateral comparison, i.e. the single-candidate duration according to each link is distributed, and will include each ring
The history engineering for saving single-candidate duration optimal, most bad situation filters out from sampling set, then to remaining history engineering, then divides
The weighted average of each link single-candidate duration, the sampling results as the sampling set are not obtained.
Exemplified by treating operation power transmission engineering, if the sample size of some sampling set is 16, i.e., shared in the sampling set
16 history engineerings, then to this 16 history engineerings, it is respectively compared its basic link, group tower link, the single-candidate work of stringing link
Phase, find out respectively these three link single-candidate durations it is optimal, it is most bad in the case of corresponding history engineering, by these history engineerings from this
Remove in sampling set, if sharing 5, then to remaining 11 history engineerings, obtain the single-candidate work of its basic link respectively
Phase weighted average, single-candidate duration weighted average, the single-candidate duration weighted average of stringing link for organizing tower link, are used as this
The sampling results of sampling set.
To obtained multiple sampling resultses, it is distributed according to total lever factor, equally filters out that those total lever factors are optimal, most bad take out
Sample result, weighted average is asked respectively according to each link to remaining sampling results, and then draw and treat operation Construction Phase
The predicted value of each link duration.Finally, then according to on-stream time it is the most reasonable operation sequential that can obtain treating operation engineering.
The present invention relies on history project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing sequence library, can estimate out and treat the optimal throwing of operation project of transmitting and converting electricity
Sequential is produced, by the multiple probability sampling of different samples, improves the accuracy estimated to the full extent in a manner of average weighted,
Treat that operation project of transmitting and converting electricity schedule provides foundation for each, allow operation of power networks research and power system operating mode arrangement personnel
The operation sequential of operation project of transmitting and converting electricity, which accomplishes there are rule to follow, to be treated to each, considers from the whole network angle, makes in advance
More set power system operating modes arrange scheme, avoid extension from causing power network to repeat modeling and repeatedly analysis.
Embodiment described above is only that the preferred embodiment of the present invention is described, not to the model of the present invention
Enclose and be defined, on the premise of design spirit of the present invention is not departed from, technical side of the those of ordinary skill in the art to the present invention
The various modifications and improvement that case is made, it all should fall into the protection domain of claims of the present invention determination.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of project of transmitting and converting electricity operation timing optimization method for predicting based on probability sampling, it is characterised in that this method includes
Following steps：
(1) history project of transmitting and converting electricity operation time series database is built；
(2) according to engineering construction time-scale and production time, each history electricity transmitting and converting construction stage each link is counted
Duration, power transmission engineering construction period are divided into three basis, group tower, stringing links, and the power transformation engineering construction period is divided into civil engineering, peace
Three dress, debugging links；
(3) based on the essential information for treating operation engineering, including engineering type, voltage class, construction scale, administrative division, from number
The similar engineering collection for treating operation engineering according to being filtered out in storehouse；
(4) multiple sampling is carried out to similar engineering collection using probability sampling, obtains multiple sampling set, extract each sampling
The duration of each link of each history engineering construction period in set；
(5) it is each to each history engineering construction period in each sampling set respectively based on the construction scale for treating operation engineering
The duration of link carries out single-candidate processing；
The ratio of the single-candidate processing is LTreat/LiSampling, wherein LTreatTo treat the construction total line length of operation engineering, LiSamplingFor sampling
The construction total line length of some history engineering in set；
(6) will be filtered in the sampling set belonging to history engineering from its corresponding to each link single-candidate duration maximum and minimum value
Fall, then for the remaining history engineering in the sampling set, obtain the weighted average of each link single-candidate duration respectively, as
The sampling results of the sampling set；
(7) total lever factor according to each sampling results is distributed, and sampling results corresponding to total lever factor maximum and minimum value is filtered
Fall, then for remaining sampling results, obtain the weighted average of each link duration respectively, as treating operation Construction Phase
The predicted value of each link duration, with reference to the on-stream time for treating operation engineering, that is, obtain treating the operation sequential of operation engineering.
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Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103632200A (en) * | 2013-12-05 | 2014-03-12 | 国家电网公司 | Method for building engineering construction progress early-warning model on basis of time probabilities |
| CN103714411A (en) * | 2012-10-08 | 2014-04-09 | 魏赐聪 | Project management system |
| CN103761614A (en) * | 2014-01-20 | 2014-04-30 | 北京仿真中心 | Project progress management method based on critical chain |
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Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103714411A (en) * | 2012-10-08 | 2014-04-09 | 魏赐聪 | Project management system |
| CN103632200A (en) * | 2013-12-05 | 2014-03-12 | 国家电网公司 | Method for building engineering construction progress early-warning model on basis of time probabilities |
| CN103761614A (en) * | 2014-01-20 | 2014-04-30 | 北京仿真中心 | Project progress management method based on critical chain |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| 乌审召220KV输变电工程项目进度管理;康宁;《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库》;20131215(第S2期);正文第9,21-23页 * |
| 关于施工企业内部施工定额编制办法的探讨;陈大山 等;《企业导报》;20121231(第24期);第74页 * |
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