CN104156614B - A kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region - Google Patents
A kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region.This method selects the extreme value scene of the extreme value containing output of wind electric field from wind power output scene first, and carries out risk Pre-Evaluation to power system with extreme value scene.If, it is considered that system is safe, being not required to be estimated with other scenes again without operation risk is found in Pre-Evaluation；When finding dangerous scene, risk assessment is carried out to the scene of not assessing in the range of its certain space length, the dangerous scene to travel through obtains accurate assessment result.This method eliminates the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenarios, improves the speed of risk assessment while risk assessment precision is ensured, to find that the potential risk of system operation provides temporal ensure in time.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of methods of risk assessment, in particular to a kind of power system risk based on Steady State Security Region
Appraisal procedure.
Background technology
The characteristics of due to the intrinsic randomness of wind-powered electricity generation, intermittent and fluctuation, large-scale wind power is grid-connected to the stabilization of power grids
Operation brings new challenge, causes the transimission power of transmission line of electricity, part conventional power unit to be exerted oneself and system spinning reserve
Corresponding change is all there occurs, certain influence is caused on the voltage stabilization and the quality of power supply of power network.These risks are with wind
Electric installed capacity increases sharply in the increase of power network proportion, and becomes with electric network composition, the change of the method for operation
Change.Therefore, it is necessary to the power system progress risk assessment that a kind of method is accessed to large-scale wind power be provided, to ensure system operation
Safety.
For the situation of exerting oneself of the following wind-powered electricity generation of accurate simulation, it is necessary to construct substantial amounts of wind power output scene.Due to scene quantity
It is huge, therefore what risk assessment took very much is carried out to the power system accessed containing large-scale wind power, it is difficult to meet requirement of engineering.
The content of the invention
In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of power system risk based on Steady State Security Region
Appraisal procedure, while risk assessment precision is ensured, eliminates the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenarios, improves risk assessment
Speed, in time find system operation potential risk provide it is temporal guarantee.
The purpose of the present invention is realized using following technical proposals：
The present invention provides a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region, and it is theed improvement is that, institute
The method of stating comprises the steps：
(1) wind power output scene is built；
(2) extreme value scene is extracted from wind power output scene；
(3) risk Pre-Evaluation is carried out to power system with extreme value scene, judges whether dangerous scene；
(4) space length of adjacent scene is determined；
(5) risk assessment is carried out to the adjacent scene do not assessed, determines whether new dangerous scene；
(6) statistical risk assessment result.
Further, the step (1) includes：Input characterizes the wind power output scene S of following wind power output situationN。
Further, the step (2) includes：From wind power output scene SNIn, select and go out comprising any one wind power plant
The extreme value scene of power extreme value.
Further, the step (3) includes：Risk Pre-Evaluation is carried out to power system with extreme value scene, if Pre-Evaluation
In without find operation risk, then it is assumed that power system is safe, is not required to be estimated using other scenes；When discovery is present
During operation risk, then (4) step is carried out.
Further, the step (4) includes：It is adjacent according to causing the dangerous scene of risk to carry out adjacent scene lookup
Scene is to be less than the scene for presetting threshold values with dangerous scene space distance, wherein, sceneWith sceneSpace length calculation formula be
Wherein：1st is represented in scene i, the 2nd until n-th of output of wind electric field value；
1st is represented in scene j, the 2nd until n-th of output of wind electric field value.
Further, the step (5) includes：Risk assessment is carried out to adjacent scene, if finding new dangerous scene,
Re-execute (4) step；If not finding new dangerous scene, (6) step is performed.
Further, the step (6) includes：The wind power output scene do not assessed is considered as security scenario, statistical risk
Assessment result, and risk evaluation result is exported, exit.
Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect that reaches of the present invention is：
1st, a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region that the present invention is provided, first from all scenes
In pick out extreme value scene, each extreme value scene contains the extreme value of at least one output of wind electric field, and they constitute all
Geometry summit of the scene in generating space.No matter system operation Steady State Security Region is in any position in wind-powered electricity generation generating space
Put, extreme value scene can symbolize the wind power output scene on different directions beyond Steady State Security Region, therefore can be by pole
It is worth scene as initial scene, risk Pre-Evaluation is carried out to power system.If without operation risk is found in Pre-Evaluation, can be with
It is safe to think system, is not required to again be estimated other scenes；When finding to have risk, then using other scenes to being
System is estimated, so as to eliminate the substantial amounts of unnecessary speed for calculating, accelerating risk assessment.In addition, when discovery system is present
During operation risk, the method progress risk assessment that dangerous scene is searched is carried out using according to space length, so as to avoid a large amount of
The redundant computation of security scenario, while accurate traveled through the dangerous scene of institute, it is ensured that the precision of risk assessment.
2nd, the present invention is not limited only to calculate wind-powered electricity generation, and it is all special with randomness that protection domain also includes solar energy, load etc.
In the object of point.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart for the Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region that the present invention is provided；
Fig. 2 is the IEEE-30 node system network topological diagrams containing wind power plant for the specific embodiment that the present invention is provided.
Embodiment
The embodiment to the present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Steady State Security Region in wind-powered electricity generation generating space may be defined as a region for not including dangerous scene.Can by its definition
Know, when the wind power output of any one in Steady State Security Region scene occurs, system operation all will be safe.The present invention is based on quiet
The dangerous scene of the safe domain lookup of state, if certain scene is the dangerous scene for causing risk, it is not necessarily in the static state of system operation
In security domain, while can be with reasoning, the smaller range on the scene periphery is also not in Steady State Security Region, i.e., adjacent with its space
Scene is also particularly likely that the dangerous scene for causing risk., can be to one based on this it is assumed that when finding new dangerous scene
Determine the scene of not assessing in the range of space length and carry out risk assessment, the dangerous scene to travel through obtains accurately assessing knot
Really.
The flow chart for the Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region that the present invention is provided was as shown in figure 1, should
Method selects the extreme value scene of the extreme value containing output of wind electric field from wind power output scene first, and with extreme value scene to power system
Carry out risk Pre-Evaluation.If, it is considered that system is safe, being not required to use other again without operation risk is found in Pre-Evaluation
Scene is estimated；When finding dangerous scene, risk is carried out to the scene of not assessing in the range of its certain space length
Assess, the dangerous scene to travel through obtains accurate assessment result.This method is saved while risk assessment precision is ensured
The redundant computation of a large amount of security scenarios has been gone, the speed of risk assessment is improved, has been the timely potential risk for finding system operation
Ensure there is provided temporal.Comprise the following steps that：
(1) wind power output scene is built：Input characterizes the wind power output scene S of following wind power output situationN。
(2) extreme value scene is extracted from wind power output scene：From wind power output scene SNIn, select comprising any one wind
Electric field is exerted oneself the scene of extreme value, i.e. extreme value scene.
(3) risk Pre-Evaluation is carried out to power system with extreme value scene, judges whether dangerous scene：If not having in Pre-Evaluation
It is found operation risk, then it is assumed that power system is safe, is not required to be estimated using other scenes；Run when finding to exist
During risk, then (4) step is carried out.
(4) space length of adjacent scene is determined：It is adjacent according to causing the dangerous scene of risk to carry out adjacent scene lookup
Scene is to be less than the scene for presetting threshold values with dangerous scene space distance, wherein, sceneWith sceneSpace length calculation formula be
Wherein：1st is represented in scene i, the 2nd until n-th of output of wind electric field value；1st is represented in scene j respectively, the 2nd until n-th of output of wind electric field value.
(5) risk assessment is carried out to the adjacent scene do not assessed, determines whether new dangerous scene：If it was found that new danger
Dangerous scene, then re-execute (4) step；If not finding new dangerous scene, (6) step is performed.
(6) statistical risk assessment result：The wind power output scene do not assessed is considered as security scenario, statistical risk assesses knot
Really, and risk evaluation result is exported, exited.
Embodiment
Technical scheme is described in further detail with reference to specific embodiment.
IEEE-30 node systems containing wind power plant are as shown in Figure 2.Wherein, node 22 and 27 has been respectively connected to capacity and is
50MW wind power plant W1 and 80MW wind power plant W2, wind power plant W1 and wind power plant W2 use constant power factor for the side of perception 0.99
Formula is controlled, it is assumed that the correlation matrix of active output is between wind power plant：
Assuming that the power prediction error Normal Distribution of wind power plant day part, as shown in table 1.
The wind power probabilistic forecasting result of table 1
The error of load prediction is not considered, and thinks that all period load values are constant.The confidence level of system risk takes β1
=β2=β3=0.95.
Conventional power unit generation schedule is as shown in table 2：
The conventional power unit generation schedule of table 2
Programmed under MATLAB and risk assessment is carried out to the example, Load flow calculation is based on MATPOWER4.1.Assuming that flat
The maximum allowable plan deviation of unit output that weighs is 30MW, and balance unit generation scheduling error is out-of-limit, Line Flow is out-of-limit and node
Parameter setting in the failure effect severity function of voltage out-of-limit is：A=10, b=0, c=1.The weight of each risk is all provided with
It is set to 1, it is assumed that the acceptable risk threshold values of system is 0.3.There is intermediate value collection in view of the wind-powered electricity generation probabilistic forecasting result of this example
In, the characteristics of edge disperses, for solve extreme value scene and other scenes at a distance of too far the problem of, the dangerous scene of first time is searched
Distance is set to 5MW, and distance is searched afterwards and is set to 3MW.
Risk can also be further speeded up using the fast evaluation method proposed by the present invention searched based on dangerous scene to comment
The speed estimated, table 3 shows the application effect of this method.
The risk assessment used time of table 3 counts
It can be drawn by table 3, the dangerous field of institute can be accurately positioned using dangerous scene lookup method proposed by the present invention
Scape, it is ensured that the accuracy of assessment result, while the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenarios can be saved, is commented so as to greatly improve risk
The speed estimated.In addition, when the risk that system operation is present is smaller, the time saved using institute's extracting method of the present invention is got over
It is many, especially when risk is not present in system operation, only it need to calculate a small amount of extreme value scene.
The method that the present invention is provided eliminates the redundancy meter of a large amount of security scenarios while risk assessment precision is ensured
Calculate, improve the speed of risk assessment, to find that the potential risk of system operation provides temporal ensure in time.
Finally it should be noted that：The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, to the greatest extent
The present invention is described in detail with reference to above-described embodiment for pipe, those of ordinary skills in the art should understand that：Still
The embodiment of the present invention can be modified or equivalent substitution, and without departing from any of spirit and scope of the invention
Modification or equivalent substitution, it all should cover among scope of the presently claimed invention.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region, it is characterised in that methods described includes following steps
Suddenly：
(1) wind power output scene S is builtN；
(2) from wind power output scene SNMiddle extraction extreme value scene, including：From wind power output scene SNIn, select comprising any one
The extreme value scene of output of wind electric field extreme value；
(3) risk Pre-Evaluation is carried out to power system with extreme value scene, judges whether dangerous scene, including：Use extreme value scene
To power system carry out risk Pre-Evaluation, if in Pre-Evaluation without find operation risk, then it is assumed that power system be it is safe, no
It need to be estimated using other scenes；When finding to have operation risk, then (4) step is carried out；
(4) space length of adjacent scene is determined；
(5) risk assessment is carried out to the adjacent scene do not assessed, determines whether new dangerous scene, including：To adjacent scene
Risk assessment is carried out, if finding new dangerous scene, (4) step is re-executed；If not finding new dangerous scene, perform
(6) step；
(6) statistical risk assessment result；
The step (4) includes：According to causing the dangerous scene of risk to carry out adjacent scene lookup, adjacent scene is and dangerous field
Scape space length is less than the scene for presetting threshold values, wherein, sceneWith sceneSky
Between be apart from calculation formula
Wherein：1st is represented in scene i, the 2nd until n-th of output of wind electric field value；Represent
The 1st in scene j, the 2nd until n-th of output of wind electric field value.
2. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step (1) includes：Input table
Levy the wind power output scene S of following wind power output situationN。
3. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step (6) includes：It will not comment
The wind power output scene estimated is considered as security scenario, statistical risk assessment result, and exports risk evaluation result, exits.
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| CN104899798B (en) * | 2015-06-30 | 2018-12-21 | 天津大学 | A kind of transient state risk control method for the wind power integration system considering spinning reserve |
| CN106022594B (en) * | 2016-05-16 | 2019-10-11 | 西安交通大学 | Electric system on-line operation safety risk estimating method based on extreme value theory |
| CN113537840A (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2021-10-22 | 龙源（北京）风电工程设计咨询有限公司 | BIM-based wind power plant three-dimensional design risk assessment system |
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