CN104156614A - Electric-system risk assessment method based on static security region - Google Patents
Electric-system risk assessment method based on static security region Download PDFInfo
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- CN104156614A CN104156614A CN201410421219.9A CN201410421219A CN104156614A CN 104156614 A CN104156614 A CN 104156614A CN 201410421219 A CN201410421219 A CN 201410421219A CN 104156614 A CN104156614 A CN 104156614A
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Abstract
The invention provides an electric-system risk assessment method based on a static security region. The electric-system risk assessment method includes the steps that extreme value scenes containing wind power plant output extreme values are firstly selected from wind power plant output scenes, and risk pre-assessment is carried out on an electric system through the extreme value scenes; if no operating risk is found during pre-assessment, it can be considered that the electric system is secure, and other scenes are not needed for assessment any more; when the risk scenes are found, risk assessment is carried out on the non-assessment scenes within certain spatial distance ranges of the risk scenes to carry out traversal on all the risk scenes, and the accurate assessment result is obtained. By means of the electric-system risk assessment method, the risk assessment accuracy is guaranteed; meanwhile, redundant calculation of the large number of secure scenes is omitted, the risk assessment speed is increased, and time guarantees are provided for timely finding potential risks of system operating.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of methods of risk assessment, specifically relate to a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region.
Background technology
Due to the feature of the intrinsic randomness of wind-powered electricity generation, intermittence and undulatory property, large-scale wind power is grid-connected has brought new challenge to power grid operation, cause transmission line of electricity through-put power, the conventional unit of part exert oneself and all there is corresponding variation in system spinning reserve, voltage stabilization and the quality of power supply to electrical network have caused certain influence.These risks are along with installed capacity of wind-driven power increases sharply in the increase of electrical network proportion, and change along with the variation of electric network composition, the method for operation.Therefore, must provide a kind of method to carry out risk assessment to the electric system of large-scale wind power access, with the safety of guarantee system operation.
For the accurate situation of exerting oneself of the following wind-powered electricity generation of simulation, must construct a large amount of wind-powered electricity generations scene of exerting oneself.Due to scene enormous amount, therefore very consuming time to carrying out risk assessment containing the electric system of large-scale wind power access, be difficult to meet requirement of engineering.
Summary of the invention
For the deficiencies in the prior art, the object of this invention is to provide a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region, in ensureing risk assessment precision, save the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenario, improve the speed of risk assessment, for the potential risk of discovery system operation in time provides temporal guarantee.
The object of the invention is to adopt following technical proposals to realize:
The invention provides a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region, its improvements are, described method comprises the steps:
(1) build the wind-powered electricity generation scene of exerting oneself;
(2) from exerting oneself scene, extracts wind-powered electricity generation extreme value scene;
(3) by extreme value scene, electric system is carried out to risk Pre-Evaluation, judge whether dangerous scene;
(4) determine the space length of adjacent scene;
(5) the adjacent scene of not assessment is carried out to risk assessment, judge whether new dangerous scene;
(6) statistical risk assessment result.
Further, described step (1) comprising: input characterizes the following wind-powered electricity generation wind-powered electricity generation of the situation scene S that exerts oneself that exerts oneself
n.
Further, described step (2) comprising: from the wind-powered electricity generation scene S that exerts oneself
nin, select the extreme value scene that comprises any one output of wind electric field extreme value.
Further, described step (3) comprising: by extreme value scene, electric system is carried out to risk Pre-Evaluation, if do not find operation risk in Pre-Evaluation, think that electric system is safe, do not need to adopt other scenes to assess; In the time finding to have operation risk, carry out (4) step.
Further, described step (4) comprising: carry out adjacent scene according to the dangerous scene that causes risk and search, adjacent scene is to be less than with dangerous scene space distance the scene that presets threshold values, wherein, and scene
with scene
space length computing formula be
Wherein:
represent in scene i that the 1st, the 2nd until n output of wind electric field value;
represent in scene j that the 1st, the 2nd until n output of wind electric field value.
Further, described step (5) comprising: adjacent scene is carried out to risk assessment, if find new dangerous scene, re-execute (4) step; If do not find new dangerous scene, carry out (6) step.
Further, described step (6) comprising: the wind-powered electricity generation scene of exerting oneself of not assessment is considered as to security scenario, and statistical risk assessment result, and export risk evaluation result, exit.
Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect that the present invention reaches is:
1, a kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region provided by the invention, first from all scenes, pick out extreme value scene, the extreme value that each extreme value scene has comprised at least one output of wind electric field, they have formed how much summits of all scenes in generating space.No matter system operation Steady State Security Region in wind-powered electricity generation generating space in where, extreme value scene can symbolize beyond the Steady State Security Region scene of exerting oneself of the wind-powered electricity generation on different directions, therefore can, using extreme value scene as initial scene, carry out risk Pre-Evaluation to electric system.If do not find operation risk in Pre-Evaluation, can think that system is safe, do not need again other scenes to be assessed; In the time finding to have risk, then adopt other scenes to assess system, thereby saved a large amount of unnecessary computations, accelerate the speed of risk assessment.In addition, in the time that discovery system exists operation risk, adopt and carry out according to space length the method that dangerous scene searches and carry out risk assessment, thereby avoided the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenario, accurately travel through dangerous scene, ensured the precision of risk assessment simultaneously.
2, the present invention is not limited only to calculate wind-powered electricity generation, and protection domain also comprises in all objects with randomness feature such as sun power, load.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region provided by the invention;
Fig. 2 is the IEEE-30 node system network topological diagram containing wind energy turbine set of specific embodiment provided by the invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail.
Steady State Security Region in wind-powered electricity generation generating space may be defined as a region that does not comprise dangerous scene.From its definition, in the time that any one wind-powered electricity generation in Steady State Security Region is exerted oneself scene generation, system operation will be all safe.The present invention is based on the dangerous scene of static security domain lookup, if certain scene is the dangerous scene that causes risk, it is scarcely in the Steady State Security Region of system operation, simultaneously can reasoning, this scene periphery more not in Steady State Security Region, the scene adjacent with its space is very likely also the dangerous scene that causes risk.Based on this hypothesis, in the time finding new dangerous scene, can carry out risk assessment to the not assessment scene within the scope of its certain space length, the dangerous scene to travel through, obtains assessment result accurately.
The process flow diagram of the Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region provided by the invention as shown in Figure 1, first the method selects the extreme value scene containing output of wind electric field extreme value from wind-powered electricity generation is exerted oneself scene, and electric system is carried out to risk Pre-Evaluation by extreme value scene.If do not find operation risk in Pre-Evaluation, can think that system is safe, do not need to assess by other scenes again; In the time finding dangerous scene, the not assessment scene within the scope of its certain space length carry out risk assessment, the dangerous scene to travel through, obtains assessment result accurately.The method, in ensureing risk assessment precision, has been saved the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenario, has improved the speed of risk assessment, for the potential risk of discovery system operation in time provides temporal guarantee.Concrete steps are as follows:
(1) build the wind-powered electricity generation scene of exerting oneself: input characterizes the following wind-powered electricity generation wind-powered electricity generation of the situation scene S that exerts oneself that exerts oneself
n.
(2) from exerting oneself scene, extracts wind-powered electricity generation extreme value scene: from the wind-powered electricity generation scene S that exerts oneself
nin, select the scene that comprises any one output of wind electric field extreme value, i.e. extreme value scene.
(3) by extreme value scene, electric system is carried out to risk Pre-Evaluation, judge whether dangerous scene: if do not find operation risk in Pre-Evaluation, think that electric system is safe, do not need to adopt other scenes to assess; In the time finding to have operation risk, carry out (4) step.
(4) determine the space length of adjacent scene: carry out adjacent scene according to the dangerous scene that causes risk and search, adjacent scene is to be less than with dangerous scene space distance the scene that presets threshold values, wherein, scene
with scene
space length computing formula be
Wherein:
represent in scene i that the 1st, the 2nd until n output of wind electric field value;
represent respectively in scene j that the 1st, the 2nd until n output of wind electric field value.
(5) the adjacent scene of not assessment is carried out to risk assessment, judge whether new dangerous scene: if find new dangerous scene, re-execute (4) step; If do not find new dangerous scene, carry out (6) step.
(6) statistical risk assessment result: the wind-powered electricity generation scene of exerting oneself of not assessment is considered as to security scenario, statistical risk assessment result, and export risk evaluation result, exit.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, technical scheme of the present invention is described in further detail.
Contain the IEEE-30 node system of wind energy turbine set as shown in Figure 2.Wherein, node 22 and 27 has accessed respectively wind energy turbine set W1 that capacity is 50MW and the wind energy turbine set W2 of 80MW, and it is that the mode of perception 0.99 is controlled that wind energy turbine set W1 and wind energy turbine set W2 adopt constant power factor, and between false wind electric field, the correlation matrix of meritorious output is:
The power prediction error Normal Distribution of false wind electric field day part, as shown in table 1.
Table 1 wind power probabilistic forecasting result
Do not consider the error of load prediction, and think that all period load values are constant.The confidence level of system risk is got β
1=β
2=β
3=0.95.
Conventional unit generation plan is as shown in table 2:
The conventional unit generation plan of table 2
Under MATLAB, program this example is carried out to risk assessment, trend is calculated based on MATPOWER4.1.Suppose that the maximum permission of balance unit output plan deviation is 30MW, the parameter setting in the failure effect severity function that balance unit generation scheduling error is out-of-limit, Line Flow is out-of-limit and node voltage is out-of-limit is: a=10, b=0, c=1.The weight of each risk is all set to 1, and the acceptable risk threshold values of supposing the system is 0.3.The wind-powered electricity generation probabilistic forecasting result of considering this example has intermediate value to be concentrated, the feature that edge disperses, for solve extreme value scene with other scenes at a distance of problem excessively far away, primary dangerous scene is searched distance and is set to 5MW, searches afterwards apart from being set to 3MW.
The further speed of quickening risk assessment of the fast evaluation method of searching based on dangerous scene that adopts the present invention to propose, table 3 has shown the effect of the method.
Table 3 risk assessment used time statistics
Can be drawn by table 3, the dangerous scene lookup method that adopts the present invention to propose can accurately be located dangerous scene, ensures the accuracy of assessment result, can save the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenario, thereby significantly improve the speed of risk assessment simultaneously.In addition, more hour, the time that adopts institute of the present invention extracting method to save is just more for the risk existing when system operation, especially in the time there is not risk in system operation, and only need a small amount of extreme value scene of calculating.
Method provided by the invention, in ensureing risk assessment precision, has been saved the redundant computation of a large amount of security scenario, has improved the speed of risk assessment, for the potential risk of discovery system operation in time provides temporal guarantee.
Finally should be noted that: above embodiment is only in order to illustrate that technical scheme of the present invention is not intended to limit, although the present invention is had been described in detail with reference to above-described embodiment, those of ordinary skill in the field are to be understood that: still can modify or be equal to replacement the specific embodiment of the present invention, and do not depart from any amendment of spirit and scope of the invention or be equal to replacement, it all should be encompassed in the middle of claim scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. the Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on Steady State Security Region, is characterized in that, described method comprises the steps:
(1) build the wind-powered electricity generation scene of exerting oneself;
(2) from exerting oneself scene, extracts wind-powered electricity generation extreme value scene;
(3) by extreme value scene, electric system is carried out to risk Pre-Evaluation, judge whether dangerous scene;
(4) determine the space length of adjacent scene;
(5) the adjacent scene of not assessment is carried out to risk assessment, judge whether new dangerous scene;
(6) statistical risk assessment result.
2. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described step (1) comprising: input characterizes the following wind-powered electricity generation wind-powered electricity generation of the situation scene S that exerts oneself that exerts oneself
n.
3. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described step (2) comprising: from the wind-powered electricity generation scene S that exerts oneself
nin, select the extreme value scene that comprises any one output of wind electric field extreme value.
4. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, described step (3) comprising: electric system is carried out to risk Pre-Evaluation by extreme value scene, if do not find operation risk in Pre-Evaluation, think that electric system is safe, do not need to adopt other scenes to assess; In the time finding to have operation risk, carry out (4) step.
5. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, described step (4) comprising: carry out adjacent scene according to the dangerous scene that causes risk and search, adjacent scene is to be less than with dangerous scene space distance the scene that presets threshold values, wherein, scene
with scene
space length computing formula be
Wherein:
represent in scene i that the 1st, the 2nd until n output of wind electric field value;
represent in scene j that the 1st, the 2nd until n output of wind electric field value.
6. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described step (5) comprising: adjacent scene is carried out to risk assessment, if find new dangerous scene, re-execute (4) step; If do not find new dangerous scene, carry out (6) step.
7. Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described step (6) comprising: the wind-powered electricity generation scene of exerting oneself of not assessment is considered as to security scenario, and statistical risk assessment result, and export risk evaluation result, exit.
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| CN113537840A (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2021-10-22 | 龙源（北京）风电工程设计咨询有限公司 | BIM-based wind power plant three-dimensional design risk assessment system |
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| CN106022594A (en) * | 2016-05-16 | 2016-10-12 | 西安交通大学 | Power system online operation safety risk assessment method based on extreme value theory |
| CN106022594B (en) * | 2016-05-16 | 2019-10-11 | 西安交通大学 | Electric system on-line operation safety risk estimating method based on extreme value theory |
| CN113537840A (en) * | 2021-08-27 | 2021-10-22 | 龙源（北京）风电工程设计咨询有限公司 | BIM-based wind power plant three-dimensional design risk assessment system |
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